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2/19/2019 Investment House Daily
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Investment House Daily Subscribers:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: AMD; DHI; HD; HON; SLB; STT
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
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Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.
- Low to high move shows continued upside bias even with a late fade.
- Each gain draws closer to the key resistance, but more stocks are setting up.
- Energy, industrials, some materials and other new areas making moves, the usual suspects are setting up again.
You can style the start of the week in many ways, and many are doing just that. The real truth of the matter, however, is the stock indices continued the same action as last week. Not Friday, but of the week overall, and that is not a bad thing though it was somewhat dull.
Specifically, stocks started lower as futures were lower. A 'sea of red' as some of the 'sky will fall at any moment' websites. Well -65 points on Dow futures is not a sea of red. It is a small puddle, a fade because Friday on DJ30 was so strong.
Indeed, stocks started recovering upside from the open, continued upside, turned positive, and held the move into the last hour. Then, a partial dump of gains as seen in a couple of sessions last week. Not great, but the indices maintained positive to the close, outside of SOX, that is.
SP500 4.16, 0.15%
NASDAQ 14.36, 0.19%
DJ30 8.07, 0.03%
NASDAQ 100 0.16%
VOLUME: NYSE -12%, NASDAQ -6%. Post-expiration trade will be lower, and this session was lower and at least on NYSE, lackluster. Not a lot of upside buying though NASDAQ trade was not far off the Friday levels.
ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE +1.8:1, NASDAQ +1.6:1. Not scaring anyone with the upside.
Nominal gains on the session but NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 joined DJ30, SOX, SP500 and SP400 above the 200 day SMA. Nominally above that level, but those other indices all made nominal first moves as well before putting some distance on that resistance.
That is well and good, but as you are by now painfully aware given my daily admonitions, every upside day is a day closer to resistance.
To view, click on the following links:
Indeed, NASDAQ's move through the 200 day SMA is simply a move closer to the top of the range. It just barely took out the December peak with the Tuesday move, now looking at the November high (7573) and October recovery high (7670) as the levels to beat. Still 85 to 200ish points away, still room for NASDAQ to run, but the moves have slimmed down on a day to day basis as NASDAQ approaches that resistance. No sellers showing up yet, but NASDAQ has been a bit sluggish thanks to FAANG and some other big names finding the going a bit slower of late.
RUTX: Again the market leader on the session, continuing its move past the 100% retracement of the December selloff. It is now looking at the November and October recovery highs just as NASDAQ, and the 200 day SMA as well. Still room to rally, definitely a market leader, but it still has to face the resistance.
DJ30: After the 400+ point move Friday, the Dow took a day off. Totally understandable. We nonetheless picked up some 'Dow-like' positions, e.g. HD, HON. On the high, DJ30 was within 20 points of the December intraday high. 26,000 to 26,300ish is the top of the range and important resistance. Came within 40 points of 26K Tuesday.
SP400: Stretched a bit more past the 200 day SMA and to the October recovery peak marking the top of the October/December range. Backed off some on the close, still holding the move over the 200 day. Still solid though slow to the upside as the resistance is closer, still no sellers stepping in, still has to show it can move through that resistance.
SP500: Started lower, moved positive, within 15 points of the first oft-discussed resistance of 2800 (basically the December pre-plunge peak). The November and October recovery peaks are 2816 to 2820ish. Closing at 2779.76, SP500 is a decent session away from those levels. This is the one most focus on and we will soon see if it has the chops to take on the resistance.
SOX: Gapped lower, rallied, faded to the close. Still in the middle of the summertime base. After leading higher the chips are taking a breather, letting others make their move as big names such as XLNX, AVGO, MU, SWKS pause after good breaks upside prior to last week's move from DJ30.
Financials: Still showing some pluck, but need breakouts. BAC, C in very decent inverted head and shoulders bases. JPM broke upside Friday, tested that move a bit Tuesday. STT started lower, rallied to a higher base high. V took a breather after a very solid prior week.
Machinery: Wildly mixed. TEX surged 8% to the 200 day SMA. CAT somewhat stymied below the 200 day SMA. CMI faded after a strong Friday break higher. DE continued to fade, testing the 50 day EMA.
Manufacturing: Edging higher similar to the indices. UTX added more upside after clearing the 200 day SMA. MMM continues testing and setting up well for a new move. BA paused after the Friday break higher.
Healthcare: ABT, MRK took some time off after good moves. ISRG held its ground in a good pattern and move. Smaller biotechs are still interesting, e.g. BCRX, IMMU.
Semiconductors: NVDA tested with a hammer doji at the 50 day EMA, not a bad setup for a new move upside. TXN is putting in a nice tight lateral consolidation as is LRCX. RMBS started to break higher on better volume after its rest. XLNX was off but continues trending higher. AMD started upside off a 2 week test. MU testing nicely, setting up again.
Software: Still testing but nicely. COUP, TEAM, NOW are just a few names in very good lateral consolidations. SPLK still trending higher. ADBE putting in a nice test.
POT: CRON is still recovering from its test. CGC still consolidating.
RETAIL: WMT gapped upside on its earnings. TJX continues higher. ROST continues to consolidate laterally. LULU, ULTA were downgraded. LULU sold off harder, ULTA in a good test. TGT is in a decent consolidation.
FOOD: CMG continues to consolidate a good move. KO selling off hard again. PEP still moving up. WING still consolidating.
Energy: SLB started higher. HAL still solid. NBL broke higher on strong volume clearing the 50 day MA. Like how DVN looks. APA is not bad either. NBL started upside on volume. Some interesting moves.
Homebuilders/Home related: HD tried higher, faded to flat, still solid. LOW held its gain. DHI moved up through the 200 day MA. TOL still not bad. HD breaking higher over the 200 day SMA, LOW already moving well.
Stats: +8.07 points (+0.03%) to close at 25891.32
Stats: +14.36 points (+0.19%) to close at 7486.77
Volume: 2.12B (-6.19%)
Up Volume: 1.22B (-300M)
Down Volume: 861.86M (+133.19M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.62 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.58 to 1
New Highs: 103 (+7)
New Lows: 27 (+8)
Stats: +4.16 points (+0.15%) to close at 2779.76
NYSE Volume: 836.753M (-11.41%)
Up Volume: 529.308M (-251.856M)
Down Volume: 287.207M (+145.085M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.76 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 3.5 to 1
New Highs: 122 (+12)
New Lows: 10 (+8)
VIX: 14.88; -0.03
VXN: 18.10; +0.40
VXO: 15.08; -0.10
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.86; +0.06
Bulls and Bears:
Bulls up again, but bears moved up a bit as some discomfort with the long recovery rally.
Bulls: 49.5 versus 48.6
Bears: 21.5 versus 20.6
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 49.5 versus 48.6
48.6 versus 45.8 versus 45.4 versus 34.8 versus 29.9 versus 39.3 versus 45.4 versus 46.7 versus 38.3 versus 39.6 versus 42.9 versus 42.5 versus 50.5 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 61.8 versus 60.6 versus 59.0 versus 57.7 versus 60.1 versus 59.6 versus 57.7 versus 57.3 versus 54.9 versus 54.5 versus 54.9 versus 55.3 versus 52.4 versus 47.1 versus 47.6 versus 52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2 versus 49.5 versus 55.5 versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5 versus 41.9 versus 54.4 versus 66.00
Bears: 21.5 versus 20.6
20.6 versus 20.6 versus 21.3 versus 29.4 versus 34.6 versus 21.4 versus 20.4 versus 21.50 versus 20.6 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 19.8 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 18.3 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.5 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.4 versus 17.6 versus 17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2 versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7 versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2
Bonds: 2.641% versus 2.664%. Bonds continued higher, but are at near term resistance.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). Last trade over 3% was November 2018.
2.664% versus 2.654% versus 2.706% versus 2.686% versus 2.672% versus 2.634% versus 2.657% versus 2.695% versus 2.702% versus 2.725% versus 2.684% versus 2.64% versus 2.679% versus 2.710.5 versus
EUR/USD: 1.13544 versus 1.12922. Euro surged upside off the recent lows.
Historical: 1.12922 versus 1.12955 versus 1.12616 versus 1.3323 versus 1.12816 versus 1.13218 versus 1.13396 versus 1.13645 versus 1.1396 versus 1.14350 versus 1.14554 versus 1.14478 versus 1.14924 versus 1.14351 versus 1.14285 versus 1.1407 versus 1.13134 versus 1.13830 versus 1.13652 versus 1.13636 versus 1.13919 versus 1.13993 versus 1.14802 versus 1.14734 versus 1.14699 versus 1.15075 versus 1.15532 versus 1.14547 versus 1.14834 versus 1.13980 versus 1.13957 versus 1.13343 versus 1.14450 versus 1.14425 versus 1.1432 versus 1.13588 versus 1.14015 versus 1.13708 versus 1.13828 versus 1.13755 versus 1.13533 versus 1.13049
USD/JPY: 110.848 versus 110.469
Historical: Last below 109 in June 2018 then tumbled to 107 in early January 2019. 114.51 is the recent high from October 2018.
110.469 versus 110.462 versus 110.945 versus 110.523 versus 110.488 versus 109.754 versus 109.793 versus 109.803 versus 109.777 versus 109.987 versus 109.53 versus 108.85 versus 108.96 versus 109.364 versus 109.180 versus 109.545 versus 109.757 versus 109.58 versus 109.651 versus 109.773 versus 109.133 versus 108.912 versus 108.551 versus 108.340 versus 108.563 versus 108.332 versus 107.959
Oil: 56.45, +0.47. Not as big a move, but oil continued higher.
Gold: 1344.80, +22.70. Gold surging upside to a new recovery high.
The indices continue the slowing grind higher to the next resistance. Some new areas are showing decently, e.g. energy, some industrial materials, some manufacturing, home-related, solar (yes, solar). Chips are taking a breather but some have already consolidated. Some software has consolidated and is at the moment of truth for new rebounds. Even FB has put in a nice test to the 20 day EMA. AAPL, GOOG not bad either. NFLX as well. There are possibilities to lead higher.
Thus, we will continue looking at upside stocks that are making good moves even as the indices approach next resistance. As noted over the weekend, if enough of these make moves, the indices can challenge those highs.
Have a great evening!
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