Thursday, February 28, 2019

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -3.13; DJ -5.16; NASDAQ -20.25

Futures lower all morning but, after gapping lower, on a steady climb into the last hour. A bit of cold feet ahead of the open, but not a bad low to high move even if still negative. This is a pattern seen overall in the market: still low to high action even on a 1-2-2.5 -- and today at least a bit more -- test. This after bumping the top of the OCT/DEC range. Very orderly thus far, and the continuation of the low to high action continues an upside bias.

Q4 GDP, first: 2.6 VS 2.3 exp vs 3.5 Q3. 3.1% year/year, best since 2005. Wow, a year over 3% on average. With SO LITTLE DONE. If the GOP had a spine and removed the ACA and worked on a market based plan as a started, things would really have roared.

Consumption: 2.8% vs 3% exp vs 3.5% Q3

Prices: 0.8 vs 0.8 prior

PCE: 1.7% vs 1.6% exp vs 1.6% Q3

R&D spending +13.5%, 9.9% year/year. 2.3% of total GDP, an all-time record. Private R&D is a good sign things will get better.

Current personal Income $225.1 B vs 190.6b q3 -- there are good indications here.

Earnings beats: JCP; BID; SQ; FIT

Misses: PRTY (TL,BL); SEAS (BL); HPE (TL); BOC (TL); BKNG (TL); LB (TL). Lots of top line misses.

China: Exports worst in 10 years; Impors worst in 3 years.

NKorea: Could not get over wanting sanctions removal for doing virtually nothing. So, Trump walked away. You have to be able to do that.

Futures lower but doing that low to high thing showing the continuing upside bias. Will see if that bounces stocks from this short pullback to near support and thus take on the top of the range.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist

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