Sunday, July 30, 2017

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 7-29-17

* * * *
7/29/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *

Investment House Daily Subscribers:

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.

MARKET SUMMARY

- Stocks calm down after the Thursday action but still sluggish, hanging
onto support.
- Dow continues higher unfazed while the other indices decently save
themselves.
- Healthcare goes down in defeat. Now time to get serious and cut the
insurance company payoffs.
- Bulls top 60, indicating an overexcited market, but the rollover goalie is
still there to save the day.
- A bit more volatile, but the patterns remain solid for many leading
groups.
- Rotation returned on the week, and thus far more of the zero sum type.

The summer games continue with national USATF and AAU this weekend and into
next week. We are still on the go as my son jumps in nationals. As a result
the reports will be pared down some, i.e. no video. I appreciate your
understanding during this crunch time when all the training comes to bear.
Thank you!

Thursday the stock indices turned choppy with SP400 and NASDAQ still trying
to spit the bit on new highs. With this market's track record for giving up
new highs as fast as they are hit, that was worth some worry. Some, but
perhaps not a lot: even when they reversed sharply from new highs, the
selling was not long-lived as the powers that be do not want and indeed
cannot afford a prolonged market selloff.

Friday things calmed down a bit, but just a bit. All but the Dow lost
ground, but a half percent on SP400 was the largest decline. Not bad
considering AMZN missed on its earnings, though there were not many viewing
the miss as anything deeply nefarious about AMZN's prospects. The market
overall was down, but certainly not in a full dive after AMZN's results.

SP500 -3.32, -0.13%
NASDAQ -7.51, -0.12%
DJ30 33.76, +0.15%
SP400 -0.49%
RUTX -0.30%
SOX -0.39%

The indices all gapped lower, but DJ30 turned positive. The others opened,
sold farther, then managed varying degrees of recovery.

SP400 showed the most wear and tear, and not surprisingly it is one of the
indices that appears to have a real aversion to new highs over the past many
months. It does not completely roll over after a new high -- the PPT and
Fed help avoid that -- but it does tend to hit the highs only to
significantly jolt downside. After rallying off the low Thursday SP400
could not capitalize on the bounce, instead gapping lower again Friday. It
managed a small recovery, but still closed below the 20 day EMA as well as
the June prior recovery high. Last selling the 50 day MA held as support
and that level may come into play again.

RUTX has sold 3 sessions the same as SP400, but RUTX is very contained,
showing a doji with tail over the 20 day EMA. It is also holding over its
June prior high. This looks more like a rally to a new high being tested.
Likely if RUTX manages a good bounce off this test, SP400 can do likewise.

NASDAQ: Thursday NASDAQ gapped to a new high an then unceremoniously
reversed. A bounce off the 20 day EMA closed it over the 10 day and out of
harm's way, but Friday NASDAQ gapped lower again. Managed to recover to
basically flat, even with the AMZN earnings issues. That leaves NASDAQ
sitting on the June high as well. Got a bit squirrely around the new high,
but that is also somewhat par for the course in these rallies.

SOX: Reversed Thursday at the recent lower highs. Managed to hold the 20
day EMA and showed a doji Friday right on the 20 day. Not leading the way
for certain, but it is holding its own and trying to perhaps build an
inverted head and shoulders.

SP500 also bucked some at a new high, but it is far from reversing,
recovering nicely Thursday off the intraday weakness to hold the 10 day EMA
and holding that level again Friday on light trade. Nothing really out of
the norm here.

DJ30 is the index that shows the most comfort with success, hitting
successive higher highs Wednesday through Friday. Decent volume as well.
Not great, but it was very solid Thursday.


LEADERSHIP

Financial: Post-Yellen the banks suffered but the pullbacks have been
contained, at least for the banks. Now they are showing some good setups,
e.g. C, BAC.

China stocks: A bit volatile Thursday, but hung on and bounced, e.g. NTES,
BABA, SOHU, SINA.

Chips: Struggling some, but after their runs, this is more like a normal
pullback: LRCX, SWKS, AMAT, AMD.

Metals, materials: After very good strength they had issues. CX fell to the
50 day EMA but held. LPX looks good at the 20 day EMA, showing a doji. AKS
is bombing lower. STLD tanked. CENX is struggling in aluminum.

Drugs/biotechs: Some big names felt the pressure last week though did not
break down. CELG, AMGN. IMGN is surging in a good move. AGEN came under
fire itself. Very mixed, but some good looking setups.

FAANG: FB looks very good to continue its breakout over the channel line.
AAPL sold into Friday but is holding the 50 day SMA. AMZN gapped lower on
earnings but was contained over the 50 day SMA. NFLX held the 10 day EMA
test. GOOG gapped below the 50 day EMA but managed to hold it on the close.


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: +33.76 points (+0.15%) to close at 21830.31

Nasdaq
Stats: -7.51 points (-0.12%) to close at 6374.68
Volume: 1.87B (-24.9%)

Up Volume: 784.07M (-166.88M)
Down Volume: 1.04B (-480M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.18 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.04 to 1

New Highs: 65 (-127)
New Lows: 55 (+9)

S&P
Stats: -3.32 points (-0.13%) to close at 2472.1
NYSE Volume: 772M (-14.22%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.18 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.22 to 1

New Highs: 87 (-76)
New Lows: 26 (+1)


SENTIMENT INDICATORS


VIX: 10.29; +0.18
VXN: 15.91; +0.02
VXO: 8.26; -0.13

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.83; -0.11


Bulls and Bears: Bully. After a surge of 8 points the prior week, bulls
continued the charge, moving back over 60 for the first time since early
2017. This is again putting out a caution flag for the upside, so much so
that Investor's Intelligence issued an alert on this showing in its survey.
The market tried to roll over several times since that bout of 60+ readings
in early 2017, but the selling was blunted by the PPT, then the buyers could
come back in and rescue the market. They did. Now with this reading, you
have to start watching for rollover attempts. Late last week could be one,
but it was not much, at least not yet.

Bulls: 60.2 versus 57.8

Bears: 16.5 versus 16.7

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.





Bulls: 60.2 versus 57.8
57.8 versus 50.0 versus 52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5 versus 50.00 versus
55.8 versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus
54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7 versus 53.4
versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8
versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8
versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9
versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2

Bears: 16.5 versus 16.7
16.7 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 19.2 versus 18.3
versus 17.1 versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9 versus 18.3 versus 17.5
versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75 versus 17.3 versus 16.5
versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3
versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6
versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1
versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.291% versus 2.303%. Bonds still attempting to bounce off the 200
day SMA test.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.303%
versus 2.287% versus 2.330% versus 2.255% versus 2.241% versus 2.270% versus
2.261% versus 2.318% versus 2.331% versus 2.346% versus 2.316% versus 2.361%
versus 2.375% versus 2.375% versus 2.368% versus 2.34% versus 2.304% versus
2.268% versus 2.20% versus 2.140% versus 2.140% versus 2.148% versus 2.165%
versus 2.156% versus 2.191% versus 2.155% versus 2.162% versus 2.209% versus
2.21% versus 2.21% versus 2.19% versus 2.176% versus 2.14% versus 2.183%
versus 2.154% versus 2.21% versus 2.20%


EUR/USD: 1.17497 versus 1.1683. That one-day dollar bounce sure didn't
last.

Historical: 1.1683 versus 1.17419 versus 1.1646 versus 1.1637 versus 1.16640
versus 1.16271 versus 1.15280 versus 1.15549 versus 1.14735 versus 1.14672
versus 1.13986 versus 1.14335 versus 1.14682 versus 1.13964 versus 1.14010
versus 1.14220 versus 1.13508 versus 1.13710 versus 1.13510 versus 1.14208
versus 1.14432 versus 1.13786 versus 1.13409 versus 1.11834 versus 1.11928
versus 1.11484 versus 1.11670 versus 1.11346 versus 1.11419 versus 1.11968
versus 1.11466 versus 1.12213 versus 1.12086 versus 1.11930 versus 1.11965


USD/JPY: 110.704 versus 111.07

Historical: 111.07 versus 111.166 versus 111.897 versus 111.176 versus
111.128 versus 111.863 versus 111.89 versus 112.096 versus 112.582 versus
112.536 versus 113.314 versus 113.152 versus 113.929 versus 114.063 versus
113.913 versus 113.126 versus 113.253 versus 113.270 versus 112.413 versus
111.993 versus 112.340 versus 112.24 versus 111.943 versus 111.299 versus
111.357 versus 111.278 versus 111.470 versus 111.729 versus 110.873 versus
110.854 versus 109.560 versus 110.060 versus 109.97 versus 110.334 versus
110.299 versus 109.355


Oil: 49.71, +0.67. Oil continues upside, now at the 200 day SMA and the
upper channel line in the down channel. That said, 52-53 is the top of the
range. Getting close, another important test ahead.


Gold: 1268.40, +0.67%


MONDAY

Healthcare 'reform' was shot down by one vote from McCain as he is into
legacy building, wanting to be the man who 'stood' for working with the
other side to craft legislation. Of course that was not the case when he
wanted war and the democrats did not. Priorities, right? Now, perhaps,
Trump will do the right thing, finally, and stop subsidizing the insurance
companies to write bad insurance in the ACA 'markets.' That will bring
about the end to the majority of those plans in a hurry, requiring the need
to take action.

Then the BIG question faces America: do we go full socialism (a government
payor) or do we get back to what has made us great (still, not again) and
free up markets to be the efficient mechanisms they are AND provide for
those instances where cancer or other multi-year/lifetime ailments strike.
Those people cannot be abandoned just because of the hand they were dealt.
There ARE ways to do this and I have discussed some before. The question is
whether those in power want to relinquish their power over this aspect of
our lives and thus relinquish power back to The People.

Weighty stuff, but the market is not that concerned. Earnings are getting
longer in the tooth and now AAPL comes next week to try and get the animal
spirits back on track. The indices got a bit squirrely last week, reversed
off of some new highs, but they did not roll over.

Moreover, there are still good patterns to move on if they show good breaks.
The financials, drugs/biotechs/healthcare, materials in nice pullbacks, some
retailers making moves.

The point: still good patterns to drive the market higher -- as long as
money gets pushed there way.

The rub: this past week there was the more vicious type of rotation, i.e.
one area rises, one falls as money is yanked. That makes the market more of
a zero sum game as the algos move money around. Fortunately many stocks
continue to hold their patterns regardless, and we will try to focus on
those.

Have a great weekend!


SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

NASDAQ: Closed at 6374.68

Resistance:

Support:
6341.70 is the all-time high from early June.
The 20 day EMA at 6320
6300 is the mid-June interim high
6205 is the late May all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 6230
The 2016 trendline at 6110
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
5800 from the February consolidation lows
The 200 day SMA at 5783
5661 is the late January upper gap point
5601 is the January lower gap point
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower


S&P 500: Closed at 2472.10

Resistance:

Support:
The 20 day EMA at 2458
2453.46 is the June prior all-time closing high
2439 is the early June all-time closing high
The 50 day EMA at 2435
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
The 200 day SMA at 2322
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high


Dow: Closed at 21,830.31

Resistance:

Support:
21,535 is the all-time high
The 20 day EMA at 21,575
The 50 day EMA at 21,367
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
20,553 is the lows of the week of May 15
20,547 is the lower gap point from late April 2017
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,400 is the mid-April 2017 low.
The 200 day SMA at 20,292
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
19,732 is the January 2017 low
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015

End part 1 of 3
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Sunday, July 23, 2017

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 7-22-17

* * * *
7/22/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *

Investment House Daily Subscribers:

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: CENX
Entry alerts: TTPH
Trailing stops: IP; MDR
Stop alerts: ARRY

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

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TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.

MARKET SUMMARY

- Oh no, NASDAQ fails to notch a new high. Ha ha, right?
- Economic data continues weaker as the FOMC is set to meet next week. Will
it need to walk back some of the response from Yellen's testimony?
- FTC probing AMZN brings back memories of MSFT antitrust.
- New highs, now a rather normal test. Will RUTX manage to hold a new high
this time versus selling off?

Shocking. Alarming. NASDAQ did not rise for a session. The rally must be
over.

That is a bit of an exaggeration, but that is the way it appeared judging
from commentary on the financial stations. I suppose that mindset is bound
to evolve given the constant intervention taken to ensure any market selloff
is turned back to the upside. Most recently this occurred 2 weeks back,
prompting NASDAQ and SOX to turn -- on a dime -- and rally back to new
highs, at least for NASDAQ. NASDAQ gapped lower and SOX reversed violently
on the same session, closing at new selloff lows. The next session they
both gapped upside and rallied. A relief rally followed, and on the sixth
day Yellen gave her dovish congressional testimony. The rally surged upside
in part 2. Friday investors stepped back and the indices lost a bit of
ground. Hey, what is going on here?

Well, even manipulated markets cannot rise every session. As in 'The
Matrix' where humans would reject the programming if all was too serene and
idyllic, if stocks rallied every day, even the slowest in the land, that is,
Congress, would catch on and the intervention would lose effect. So, there
will be allowed declines as on Friday. The controlling powers will allow
normal market pullbacks, but if it continues too long and threatens a real
break, such as 2 weeks ago, actions must be taken.

So, as we noted might happened, though we wanted more upside first, the
stock indices started testing the breaks to new highs. Barely. The losses
in many cases required sensitive instruments to measure them.

SP500 -0.91, -0.04%
NASDAQ -2.25, -0.04%
DJ30 -31.71, -0.15%
SP400 -0.26%
RUTX -0.45%
SOX -0.81%

VOLUME: NYSE +12%, NASDAQ -3%. NYSE trade finally moved higher Thursday
and Friday, though still below average. As SP500 and the NYSE indices went
nowhere or lost ground, that suggests some churn/higher volume turnover
after a good move. Nothing major yet, but higher volume to the downside is
never great. NASDAQ trade remained low and below average as it tested; no
selling what they just bought.

A/D: NYSE -1.1:1, NASDAQ -1.5:1. NASDAQ 100 was up on the session,
indicating the negative breadth was thanks to the non-large cap four letter
stocks.

This is hardly the stuff of an imminent selloff. Now IF the stock indices
reversed downside sharply as they have done on other occasions, giving up
the breakout with downside engulfing patterns, THAT would be a cause for
concern. Oh, but there is the Fed and the Plunge Protection Team, ready to
assist whenever some selling lasts to the point where those playing the
upside may get discouraged and not put all of their money into stocks (as if
there was another choice, right?).


NEWS/ECONOMY

The week was pretty slow given most of the news is the same old stories that
are kept alive with new leaks, theories, accusations. The Trump/Russia
fishing expedition continues and Trump continues insisting on keeping it
going with continued unforced errors. For instance? He says he would never
have hired Sessions if he knew Sessions would recuse himself -- without
asking. Granted I would be a bit miffed if my AG did that without
consultation, but I just don't have the bravado to Tweet about it. Trump
does things the way he has always done things, and it is quite humorous to
watch DC squirm. It is like the Beverly Hillbillies coming to upper
society, but the irony is Trump is one of upper society.

There are stories to worry about. As seen Thursday, the economic data
continues to erode as Philly Fed saw new orders (25.9 to 2.1), production,
and other metrics not just fall, but downright collapse. Economic data
continues eroding, and there is your justification for Yellen's
congressional cold feet.

There are also not just economic stories.

The FTC is probing AMZN for deceptive discounting. Democrats are vociferous
in wanting the FTC to pursue AMZN on the WFM deal. Sounds as if the
'getting too big' standard for corporations is flashing at Congress'
socialists. That is not to be confused with the 'too big to fail' standard
applied to banks. Banks can be propped up and subsidized as much as needed
to maintain their dominance, but corporations cannot be allowed to get too
large. After all, most members of Congress go to work for a big financial
institution or a firm in bed with the financial institutions after they
leave office. Cannot have the source of multi-million dollar salaries and
bonuses taken away; it is an entitlement for serving, right?

The problem: when government starts trying to limit companies for their
success, tremors run through the economy. It happened when the Clinton
administration decided to go after MSFT. No one knew it at the time, but
that move coincided with the NASDAQ's top. Now we have a long rally and
AMZN rightly is credited with a big role in that move. New highs, much rah,
rah spirit, then the regulators feel the need to 'protect' is us all. What
with? Another stock market crash and recession as in 2000 and 2001? Gee,
thanks. Not sure if the Fed and PPT can ultimately avert any negative
ramifications if the FTC is serious.


Money Supply. Of course what keeps the economy and markets moving is money
supply, and our friends at the Fed have the vault keys. While Yellen turned
more dovish with her congressional testimony, money supply is still
contracting, down for 105 months straight to a low of 5.4% growth. Yes it
is still growing, but for perspective that level is below the September 2008
level. It remains to be seen if the Fed loosens back up or not.


North Korea: The US has told all US nationals in North Korea to leave
immediately. That sounds really promising for a quick peace agreement. If
you mean bombing North Korea off the map as a quick means to peace, that is.


THE MARKET

CHARTS

So this is selling? The indices test their breaks higher. Not a lot of
intrigue here.

SOX: The only index NOT to hit a new high last week, so we start here.
Nice rally past the June lower high, peaking Thursday. Friday a gap to a
doji over the 10 day EMA. These stocks need a test, likely put in a modest
test over part of this coming week.

NASDAQ: Later to the new high but solid enough action with volume on
Tuesday's upside, a Wednesday gap past the prior all-time high. Thursday
and Friday basically a standoff. Breakout, new high, a very modest test
thus far.

RUTX: Nice surge to a clear new high Wednesday, a pause Thursday, then RUTX
was on a rampage early Friday. Then it stopped. The bids ended. RUTX
slipped, then fell harder, losing almost a half percent on the session.
Still holding the breakout to the high, however, and not in bad shape. It's
just that every time we see that kind of reversal you worry. It happened in
late February/early March. It happened in April just after a new high. It
happened in early June as it put in a new high. It happens.

SP400: This is a pretty test. Wednesday breakout to a new high, Thursday
and Friday a tap at the 10 day EMA on the low, a decent rebound off the
test. Held the break to a new high, good position.

SP500: New highs continued through Thursday, though Wednesday was the
closing high. Barely giving any back, holding easily over the 10 day EMA in
a barely test.

DJ30: Held steady around the prior week's new high, bouncing back and forth
over the 10 day EMA. Would test lower intraday then rebound to hold the 10
day. Pretty decent test has already taken place, leaving DJ30 in position
to move higher.


LEADERSHIP

Many groups rallied on the week, many tested back some to end the week.
Still plenty of leaders to push the indices higher. Biotech/Drugs,
software, China, chips look good. Even some retail has improved while oil
tries again but also struggles again.

China: Several stocks surged, other leaders tested. BZUN is surging and
continued doing so Friday with an 8% gain. HTHT surged. JD looks good to
make a break higher. SINA, SOHU, NTES, BABA are in decent tests. WUBA
looks ready to go again.

Biotech/Drugs: Some good moves, some tests as well. CELG rallied late week
showing better volume. AMGN was steadily higher up the 10 day EMA though
not spectacular. Others look ready to go, e.g. AXGN, ARNA.

Software: Some security software looks decent, e.g. SPLK. VMW still looks
good. TTWO, GLUU also have possibilities.

Retail: DDS exploded higher and continued to surge. CONN is setting up in
an early part of a test. JCP actually looks as if it can make a break
higher form a long selloff.

FAANG: FB led early week, hit the top of its channel, paused. AAPL is
testing a break through the 50 day SMA; interesting. AMZN testing the 10
day EMA after hitting a new high Tuesday to Thursday. NFLX continued higher
after gapping on earnings. GOOG just below the June high.


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: -31.71 points (-0.15%) to close at 21580.07

Nasdaq
Stats: -2.25 points (-0.04%) to close at 6387.75
Volume: 1.8B (-2.7%)

Up Volume: 742.23M (-317.77M)
Down Volume: 986.83M (+240.7M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.47 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.14 to 1

New Highs: 131 (-59)
New Lows: 42 (+10)

S&P
Stats: -0.91 points (-0.04%) to close at 2472.54
NYSE Volume: 836.8M (+11.59%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.11 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.03 to 1

New Highs: 184 (-31)
New Lows: 15 (+7)


SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 9.36; -0.22
VXN: 14.36; 0
VXO: 7.77; -1.23

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.74; 0


Bulls and Bears: Bully. Bulls surge almost 8 points and indeed close to the
highs from earlier in the year. Nothing like new highs. Bulls fell almost
2 points, falling back toward multiyear lows.

Bulls: 57.8 versus 50.0

Bears: 16.7 versus 18.6

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.





Bulls: 57.8 versus 50.0
50.0 versus 52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5 versus 50.00 versus 55.8 versus
50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus
51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7 versus 53.4 versus 57.7
versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2
versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6
versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7
versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2

Bears: 16.7 versus 18.6
18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 19.2 versus 18.3 versus 17.1
versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9 versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3
versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75 versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5
versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3
versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3
versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8
versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.241% versus 2.264%. Bonds continued to rally on the week, moving
farther off the 200 day SMA.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.241%
versus 2.270% versus 2.261% versus 2.318% versus 2.331% versus 2.346% versus
2.316% versus 2.361% versus 2.375% versus 2.375% versus 2.368% versus 2.34%
versus 2.304% versus 2.268% versus 2.20% versus 2.140% versus 2.140% versus
2.148% versus 2.165% versus 2.156% versus 2.191% versus 2.155% versus 2.162%
versus 2.209% versus 2.21% versus 2.21% versus 2.19% versus 2.176% versus
2.14% versus 2.183% versus 2.154% versus 2.21% versus 2.20%


EUR/USD: 1.16640 versus 1.16271. Euro broke sharply higher Thursday,
continued the move Friday.

Historical: 1.16271 versus 1.15280 versus 1.15549 versus 1.14735 versus
1.14672 versus 1.13986 versus 1.14335 versus 1.14682 versus 1.13964 versus
1.14010 versus 1.14220 versus 1.13508 versus 1.13710 versus 1.13510 versus
1.14208 versus 1.14432 versus 1.13786 versus 1.13409 versus 1.11834 versus
1.11928 versus 1.11484 versus 1.11670 versus 1.11346 versus 1.11419 versus
1.11968 versus 1.11466 versus 1.12213 versus 1.12086 versus 1.11930 versus
1.11965 versus 1.1199 versus 1.12491 versus 1.12798 versus 1.12684 versus
1.12811 versus 1.12181 versus 1.12547 versus 1.11768 versus 1.11810 versus
1.12148 versus 1.12240 versus 1.11868 versus 1.12390 versus 1.11916 versus
1.23077 versus 1.10985 versus 1.11557 versus 1.10862 versus 1.09833 versus
1.09328 versus 1.08655 versus 1.08671


USD/JPY: 111.128 versus 111.863. Dollar bombed lower, breaking below the
50 day SMA Friday after trying to hold it Tuesday to Thursday.

Historical: 111.863 versus 111.89 versus 112.096 versus 112.582 versus
112.536 versus 113.314 versus 113.152 versus 113.929 versus 114.063 versus
113.913 versus 113.126 versus 113.253 versus 113.270 versus 112.413 versus
111.993 versus 112.340 versus 112.24 versus 111.943 versus 111.299 versus
111.357 versus 111.278 versus 111.470 versus 111.729 versus 110.873 versus
110.854 versus 109.560 versus 110.060 versus 109.97 versus 110.334 versus
110.299 versus 109.355


Oil: 45.72, -1.15. Came under pressure Friday as production figures show
Saudi Arabia pumping more than it said.


Gold: 1254.90, +9.40. Gold took on new luster with a move off the break
over the 200 day SMA. Paused midweek, surged sharply Friday, continuing
higher in its range.


MONDAY

Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Durable Goods, GDP Q2 advanced, and our
friends at the FOMC with a rate decision Wednesday. A relatively blistering
2.8% is anticipated on GDP -- will the Fed have advance notice of the
advance report? Likely. Will it toughen up the Fed's statement on
Wednesday? It shouldn't, but then again, the Fed may feel the market
misunderstood Chairman Yellen's congressional testimony and desires to
redirect the mindset away from the Fed having turned more dovish to
compensate for economic AND political risk.

That means Wednesday could be a bit more interesting than usual in terms of
a typical FOMC meeting. Outside of that, the indices started a test toward
the weekend, now a very modest test, a very normal one after new highs.
That should continue and set up a new break higher once completed.

The worry, of course, is that after hitting new highs the indices reverse.
As noted in discussing the RUTX chart, that is something it has done quite
regularly. New high, selloff. New high, selloff. Of course RUTX is not
the entire market and NASDAQ and SOX have led most of the move, and they too
are important for the rally's further advance. Both are in very nice, easy,
orderly tests. With the Fed, as far as we know right now, fully behind the
market, why not put in an easy test of the new highs and then resume the
rally?

As a result, we have some nice upside plays for the coming week, stocks that
in some cases have not made a big move yet but have some great bases in
place and look to move higher. Others have rallied, are testing, and still
have plenty of room to rise.

Earnings is here and some of these plays are heading toward results. Even
so, we like the possibilities.

Have a great evening!


SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

NASDAQ: Closed at 6387.75

Resistance:

Support:
6341.70 is the all-time high from early June.
The 10 day EMA at 6316
6300 is the mid-June interim high
6205 is the late May all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 6191
The 2016 trendline at 6078
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
5800 from the February consolidation lows
The 200 day SMA at 5756
5661 is the late January upper gap point
5601 is the January lower gap point
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower


S&P 500: Closed at 2472.54

Resistance:

Support:
The 10 day EMA at 2458
2453.46 is the June prior all-time closing high
2439 is the early June all-time closing high
The 50 day EMA at 2427
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
The 200 day SMA at 2314
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high


Dow: Closed at 21,580.07

Resistance:

Support:
21,535 is the all-time high
The 20 day EMA at 21,489
The 50 day EMA at 21,294
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
20,553 is the lows of the week of May 15
20,547 is the lower gap point from late April 2017
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,400 is the mid-April 2017 low.
The 200 day SMA at 20,205
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
19,732 is the January 2017 low
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015

End part 1 of 3
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Saturday, July 15, 2017

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 7-15-17

* * * *
7/15/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *

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Entry alerts: AMGN; DVAX
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Stop alerts: None issued

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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.

MARKET SUMMARY

- Economic data limps in, giving the Fed's new normal dovishness support.
- Stocks take solace, embracing 'bad is good' once again.
- No volume, lousy breadth, new highs for DJ30, SP500, RUTX.
- Thus far rotation is helping all, hurting few. Earnings are coming and
may change that.

Friday saw more weak economic data from the CPI to Retail Sales. I suppose
you can conclude the Fed had this data before Yellen's return to not so
lonesome dove status in her Wednesday congressional address.

The market returned as well, i.e. returned to the 'bad is good' mindset.
Why not? The Fed has its back for economic AND political risk as learned
Wednesday. So, bad news equals good news equals buy.

That sent DJ30 to another new high as SP500 and RUTX joined it. NASDAQ and
SP400 are very close as well. A new normal in normalization of rates and
all is well again in terms of buying stocks.

SP500 11.44, 0.47%
NASDAQ 38.03, 0.61%
DJ30 85.65, 0.39%
SP400 0.34%
RUTX 0.22%
SOX 1.30%

VOLUME: NYSE -12%, NASDAQ -11%. Amazingly low volume. Yes, yes, it is
summer and vacation time, but you would think the Fed's 'run to the light'
capitulation this week trade would perk up a bit.

Advance/Decline: NYSE 2.5:1, NASDAQ 1.3:1. Seriously? NASDAQ is punching
at a new high and breadth is not even 3:2? Trying to figure out how NYSE
breadth hit 5:2 given the weak gains in small and midcaps. Suffice it to
say, breadth was a putrid as volume on this move. But, in a 'ignore the
dangers, enjoy the ride' Fed and PPT-induced rally, who cares, right?


It really does appear as if the Fed and the government (through the Plunge
Protection Team established under Reagan) will do anything to keep stock
markets higher. Why? Because likely they know that if this rally ever
stops and the algos that run the big buys and sells (versus the fund
managers that used to move the markets) flip their bias, the selling would
be historic in its descent, both in rate and magnitude.


It appeared the FOMC was on a 'bold' road to normalization. A steady,
methodical pace of modest rate hikes and a reduction in the ballooned
balance sheet thanks to buying any and all junk the financial markets
produced during the financial crisis and beyond.

Ostensibly this was keeping in step with an improving economy, though as we
pointed out for the past several months, the economic activity is not
improving. The reality appeared to be the Fed realized it was way behind
the curve, and if the domestic political and geopolitical stage continued to
worsen in addition to weakening economic data (to which the Fed would not
admit), the Fed did not have enough silver bullets to forestall any new
crises that might threaten the power of those in power. Thus, the need to
hike.

Then something happened. The data was worse than expected, even worse than
the Fed could gloss over. Jobs beat expectations and that is always good
for an excuse to look the other way, but jobs lag economic activity, and of
course the jobs report these days, similar to most government economic
reports, is hardly a representation of reality. Wages were still bad,
almost 100M (and some say over 100M) working aged are out of the workforce,
GDP was weak and saw corporate profits (as measured by IRS payments) fall,
retail sales fell for a second month, Inflation remains weak (at least
according to the government), and of course the President's healthcare
reform and tax cut agenda is at best in limbo.

Wednesday Chairman Yellen produced a much more dovish economic assessment
for Congress, lowering the Fed's GDP expectations.

So, no bold move back to normalization of rates? No, just the way the
government normalizes these days: CHANGE THE DEFINITION of normal.
Apparently permanently low growth rates and low interest rates are the Fed's
new normal. As with what you hear from many in Congress and 'expert'
economists, US economic growth is now permanently mired at European levels.

This has been said before about the US. Back in the 1970's when the US went
through stagflation and other woes thanks to overregulation, many said the
US economy was a nice experiment, had a good run, but it had run its course.
Then Reagan came along, implemented pro-growth policies, reduced regulation,
returned the power regarding investment decisions (in other words, money)
back to the people, and voila, a 20 year boom started.

The US population ran full circle from free markets and the boom they
produced to largess and entitlement expectation in the almost 40 years since
the Reagan era that Clinton helped keep alive with some good policy
decisions that overcame bad policy decisions, at least for awhile. After 8
years of massive, massive regulation and taxation, the votes came in for a
return to again freer markets, less regulation, less taxation.

The sad thing is, the Administration's propensity to self-inflict wounds
combined with an organized and motivated opposition and an utterly hapless,
power-consumed Congress has road-blocked what most people in the US want:
less regulation, less taxation, and a return of the power regarding
important life decisions such as healthcare.

Thus, perhaps Yellen's and the FOMC's read on the outlook is correct.
Realizing the politics are swinging against any real reform, the Fed was
compelled to adjust its view, fearing that in Yellen's twilight the markets
might actually roll over because of the political obstacles blocking what
sparked the November to early Summer stock market rally. Yellen cannot have
that blemish on her record just before Trump appoints another for the Chair.

Alas, the Fed is political as well. Who would have thought?

The upshot, however, is the Fed again has the market's back. It was
comfortable with letting the market correct a bit, but with these new
potential perils to Yellen's legacy it is taking no chances. So, the Fed
now has the market's back for economics and politics. And Yellen's legacy.

Of course the market responded upside. A new high for DJ30 on Wednesday,
the day of Yellen's new normal. SP500 and RUTX joined in with new all-time
highs on Friday. NASDAQ and SP400 midcaps are knocking on the new high
door.

Excruciatingly light volume and not even a lot of breadth on the move to the
highs, even after the Yellen capitulation. Yet stocks climb. There is no
reason, again, to go lower if the Fed is going to back the stock market for
all reasons. Even Yellen's putative replacement, Mr. Kohn, is viewed by the
financial markets as uber-market friendly. That thought simply added
further giddiness to the upside.

Now the big names are second-guessing whether there will be a late
summer/early fall selloff as they alter their rate hike forecasts. Of
course those forecasts are worthless, but the market, despite rather
terrible internals, continues higher because the Fed has its back and there
is nowhere else to go. Savings? The Fed just knifed the elderly again;
banks should clone the democrat's healthcare commercial of a Paul Ryan
look-alike wheeling granny off the cliff and give the person doing the
pushing a Yellen look. Gold? You can buy it again. The dollar? It just
broke to a lower low out of the bottom of its channel. Hmmm. Perhaps
stocks?


THE MARKET

CHARTS

SP500: New all-time high as SP500 gapped off the 50 day EMA Wednesday and
rallied straight up. No volume, lousy breadth, but it made the new high
without the help from financials as their earnings were met with selling,
but they all recovered nicely. New high, lousy internals. Technically
something of a nightmare, but the market continues to move higher.

RUTX: New high as well though losing as much off the high on the close as
it gained. Still trying to figure out NYSE breadth gains with this kind of
move, a kind of 'excuse me' new high.

DJ30: Another new high here as well, its third straight. On no volume.

NASDAQ: Gapped higher and rallied close to a new high, just 9 points off
the early June closing high. No volume and it will be interesting to see
how NASDAQ reacts at the prior all-time high.

SOX: Broke higher over the June highs, still well off the early June peak.
Up 6 of 8 sessions.

SP400: The small caps touched the June all-time high then faded the gain.
5 of 6 days up, moving off the 50 day MA double bottom formed in June. Not
a bad pattern, new all-time high appears imminent, even with pathetic volme.


LEADERSHIP

Biotechs/Drugs: Overall solid on the week with some good moves Friday, e.g.
DVAX, AMGN. TTPH, AGEN, MNTA and others still look very good.

China: Some very good moves on the week and some on Friday. BABA continued
upside through Friday. YY is one we picked up Wednesday and it shot higher
9% Friday. YNDX gapped massively; could not buy it. NTES started a good
move though Thursday tested back to the 10 day EMA. Solid overall.

FAANG: Helped lead NASDAQ higher Friday, adding more gains. GOOG filled
the late June gap lower. AMZN is in a very nice test after approaching the
prior high. AAPL continued higher to the 50 day SMA. FB gapped a bit higher
to a doji. NFLX added more upside on its rebound.

Financial: Gapped lower on the JPM, C, WFC, GS earnings, these stocks did a
credible job of recovering off the opening lows. C puts in a very nice doji
with tail at the 20 day EMA. JPM gapped to the 20 day EMA then rebounded
sharply. Not bad, still showing good patterns.

Chips: Still recovering. LRCX edged higher on low volume in its week-plus
move. AMAT edged higher as well along with SWKS. AMD, MU faded some on the
week, moved higher Friday.

Metals: Faded some Friday but overall a solid week, maintaining good
patterns. SCHN, STLD, CENX, FCX.

Manufacturing, Machinery, Construction, Materials: Overall a decent week
though not hugely powerful. TEX broke to a higher rally high. MDR rallied
nicely on the week. HOLI rallied, still holding a good pattern.

Energy: Still well down in its selling but once again attempting to build a
foundation to move up. APA, HOS, SPN, PTEN, HAL. Possible, we will see.


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: +84.65 points (+0.39%) to close at 21637.74

Nasdaq
Stats: +38.03 points (+0.61%) to close at 6312.47
Volume: 1.62B (-10.5%)

Up Volume: 1.11B (+167.28M)
Down Volume: 483.29M (-351.3M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.3 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.01 to 1

New Highs: 151 (+45)
New Lows: 36 (-9)

S&P
Stats: +11.44 points (+0.47%) to close at 2459.27
NYSE Volume: 674.3M (-12.22%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.49 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.09 to 1

New Highs: 187 (+66)
New Lows: 8 (-4)


SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 9.51; -0.39
VXN: 13.8; -0.82
VXO: 8.64; +0.24

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.84; -0.03


Bulls and Bears: Bulls slip to match the lows of 2017. Hit highs in early
2017, now bulls are falling but surely the Fed's largesse will bounce them
back up. Right?

Bulls: 50.0 versus 52.5

Bears: 18.6 versus 18.8

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.





Bulls: 50.0 versus 52.5
52.5 versus 54.9 versus 51.5 versus 50.00 versus 55.8 versus 50.00 versus
51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3
versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7 versus 53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1
versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6
versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8
versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1
versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2

Bears: 18.6 versus 18.8
18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 19.2 versus 18.3 versus 17.1 versus 17.3
versus 17.9 versus 17.9 versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1
versus 17.3 versus 13.75 versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6
versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4
versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6
versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1
versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.332 versus 2.346%. Bonds gapped sharply higher, hitting 2.28% on
the 10 year, before failing at the 50 day MA and falling back to close at
the 200 day MA. Tried to rally on the Yellen dovishness but having a hard
time advancing the move.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.346%
versus 2.316% versus 2.361% versus 2.375% versus 2.375% versus 2.368% versus
2.34% versus 2.304% versus 2.268% versus 2.20% versus 2.140% versus 2.140%
versus 2.148% versus 2.165% versus 2.156% versus 2.191% versus 2.155% versus
2.162% versus 2.209% versus 2.21% versus 2.21% versus 2.19% versus 2.176%
versus 2.14% versus 2.183% versus 2.154% versus 2.21% versus 2.20%


EUR/USD: 1.14672 versus 1.13986

Historical: 1.13986 versus 1.14335 versus 1.14682 versus 1.13964 versus
1.14010 versus 1.14220 versus 1.13508 versus 1.13710 versus 1.13510 versus
1.14208 versus 1.14432 versus 1.13786 versus 1.13409 versus 1.11834 versus
1.11928 versus 1.11484 versus 1.11670 versus 1.11346 versus 1.11419 versus
1.11968 versus 1.11466 versus 1.12213 versus 1.12086 versus 1.11930 versus
1.11965 versus 1.1199 versus 1.12491 versus 1.12798 versus 1.12684 versus
1.12811 versus 1.12181 versus 1.12547 versus 1.11768 versus 1.11810 versus
1.12148 versus 1.12240 versus 1.11868 versus 1.12390 versus 1.11916 versus
1.23077 versus 1.10985 versus 1.11557 versus 1.10862 versus 1.09833 versus
1.09328 versus 1.08655 versus 1.08671


USD/JPY: 112.536 versus 113.314. Dollar tested on the week then fell hard
Frida through the 200 day SMA.

Historical: 113.314 versus 113.152 versus 113.929 versus 114.063 versus
113.913 versus 113.126 versus 113.253 versus 113.270 versus 112.413 versus
111.993 versus 112.340 versus 112.24 versus 111.943 versus 111.299 versus
111.357 versus 111.278 versus 111.470 versus 111.729 versus 110.873 versus
110.854 versus 109.560 versus 110.060 versus 109.97 versus 110.334 versus
110.299 versus 109.355


Oil: 46.54, +0.46. Oil rallied back up to the 50 day MA Friday after
failing at that level two weeks back. Faded, put in a higher low, rallied
back. Now if the range is going to hold, oil should continue the break
higher in the range.


Gold: 1227.50, +10.20. Gold broke below the May low last week, rebounded
to recover it this week, gratis Yellen. Tapped the 200 day SMA on the high
then faded the gain. In a range and trying to roll back up from the lows.


MONDAY

NYSE indices were building patterns but were sluggish, not going anywhere.
NASDAQ and SOX started with a relief move after 2 weeks of selling. Then
that relief move took on new life Wednesday with the release of the Yellen
testimony to Congress. Wednesday to Friday those two put in solid moves.
Friday saw the NYSE indices coming around now as well, indeed beating SOX
and NASDAQ to new highs simply, however, because they did not rally before
or sell; they just were.

NASDAQ will be bumping the early June high to start the week with low, low
volume and MACD well, well lower as NASDAQ tests the prior high.
Technically it doesn't have a lot of power, and indeed the NYSE indices rose
on low volume and narrow breadth. Yet the Fed is there along with the PPT,
and the market has put in another recovery.

They may be ready for a test of the week to the upside though whether it is
more than a test becomes less likely now that the Fed is running cover. So,
we see if there is a test we can use to exit some plays and then set up new
upside buys. If a test is just a test, then we have new upside entries. If
not, if the rebound was just the last bit of fluff and rolls over hard, then
we will have some downside plays as well.

Of course, not everything has to fall. Rotation has given to some, taken
from others. It could return, but again, with the Fed becoming more dovish,
new money may enter the market allowing all areas to rise. That is not all
that evident yet given the very, very light trade, but both scenarios are
something to keep in mind when watching the market action this coming week.

Have a great weekend!


SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

NASDAQ: Closed at 6312.47

Resistance:
6341.70 is the all-time high from early June.

Support:
6300 is the mid-June interim high
6205 is the late May all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 6153
The 2016 trendline at 6050
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
5800 from the February consolidation lows
The 200 day SMA at 5729
5661 is the late January upper gap point
5601 is the January lower gap point
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower


S&P 500: Closed at 2459.27

Resistance:

Support:
2453.46 is the all-time closing high
2439 is the early June prior all-time closing high
The 50 day EMA at 2417
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
The 200 day SMA at 2306
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high


Dow: Closed at 21,637.74

Resistance:

Support:
21,535 is the all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 21,224
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
20,553 is the lows of the week of May 15
20,547 is the lower gap point from late April 2017
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,400 is the mid-April 2017 low.
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
The 200 day SMA at 20,121
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
19,732 is the January 2017 low
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015

End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
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1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439

Saturday, July 08, 2017

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 7-8-17

* * * *
7/8/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *

Investment House Daily Subscribers:

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: AAOI
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.

TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4

TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4

TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************

The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.

MARKET SUMMARY

- Friday rebound post-jobs, trying to stave off a serious tech, chip
selloff.
- Jobs headlines are better, the rest is all the same and will remain the
same without policy changes
- Better jobs headlines help the market rally as market needs good economics
to rally with the Fed hiking.
- Just a tech/chip bounce or rotation back to those areas? Still better
patterns in other groups, making this week a tell between the two.

A back and forth week ended on the upside with a jobs report that easily
topped expectations. With the FOMC in a tightening mode the best thing for
the stock market is stronger economic activity. The market needed some good
economic data given the recent data has proved less than solid; otherwise a
Fed hiking campaign is not good news for the rally. With a good enough jobs
report, the market responded with sharp upside.

Friday the action was not as bifurcated as the prior sessions for the week.
Other sessions on one day would show NASDAQ and SOX stronger when recent
leaders such as biotech, machinery, manufacturing, financial were weaker.
The next session was the flip. Friday, many sectors rallied. Still, the
focus was on tech, chips, and even FAANG as they were scooped up after being
rejected the prior month.

SP500, SP400, RUTX bounced off their tests near the 50 day MA, moving up off
of or back through the that level. Good responses to the dives lower
Thursday. DJ30 shows no wear and tear, holding at the 20 day EMA in rather
normal action as it moves up the near term moving averages.

NASDAQ and SOX rebounded as well, posting solid percentage moves. NASDAQ
recovered the 50 day EMA but could not take out the 50 day SMA. SOX gapped
and rallied to the 50 day SMA. It faded from there and indeed closed just
below the 50 day EMA.

Good responses to the back and forth action, particularly the very weak
action early week for SOX and the Thursday sharp selling on SP500, SP400,
and RUTX.

SP500 15.43, 0.64%
NASDAQ 63.62, 1.04%
DJ30 94.30, 0.44%
SP400 0.96%
RUTX 1.07%
SOX 1.72%
NASDAQ 100 1.05%

VOLUME: NYSE -16%, NASDAQ -14%. Despite the solid price surges Friday,
volume lagged. NYSE trade was lower and well, well below average. NASDAQ
volume was lower and also well below average. Despite the moves higher,
volume did not track with it. All buyers on the session but not more buyers
than the Thursday sellers. That is a telling aspect.

A/D: NYSE 2.2:1, NASDAQ 2.6:1. Breadth was decent but with 1+% moves on
NASDAQ to SOX to RUTX to almost SP400, this was puny breadth. Indeed, if
you compare NASDAQ to NASDAQ 100 you see virtually identical percentage
gains; in other words, NASDAQ moved higher thanks to its large caps stocks.

So, the internals were not great. Passable. Enough to support a recovery
and a new rally to higher highs? This current uptrend has seen its share of
less than inspiring recoveries off of sharp selloffs. At least this one had
strong price moves.

Nice price moves, weaker internals than they should have been for the price
moves. The weakest indices, NASDAQ and SOX, are off the recent lows but
still below key resistance. To us that means Friday was not definitive in
terms of a new upside rally leg. So we opted to limit our action and see
how the moves play out to start the next week, to see if the back and forth
moves establish a trend.

Our own belief is that the Fed is in a different mode this time, i.e. it is
going to hike rates and reduce its balance sheet regardless, and that
economic data is not going to improve. Indeed, in its July Monetary Policy
Report released Friday (basically the testimony Yellen will deliver to
Congress next week), the Fed stated that "valuation pressures across a range
of assets and several indicators of investor risk appetite have increased
further since mid-February."

That does not bode well for the markets, but right now the NYSE indices are
still holding their trends while the bond and gold markets are now selling
as they should if economics are improving. That means they can still rise
and rally yet again. If they are showing more of that Friday upside
strength this coming week, the market is going to try yet another run. We
feel that the runs are on their last gasps, but if they run, they run, and
we will play choice stocks accordingly.


ECONOMICS/NEWS

Jobs Report tops, prior months revised upside.

222K versus 173K expected versus 152K May (from 138K) versus 207K April
(from 174K)

Unemployment Rate: 4.4% versus 4.3% versus 4.3% May

U6 rate (those wanting full-time but cannot find it, those recently giving
up looking for work): 8.6% versus 8.4%.


Average Hourly Wages: 0.153% versus 0.3% expected versus 0.1% May.
2.5% year/year, barely with inflation.

Participation Rate: 62.8% versus 62.7% May


How can there be changes when nothing has changed?

Sounds great, and there are some real positives. Also, however, the same
problems. Why? Because there are structural changes in the jobs market
wrought by the economic policies of the past 12 years that the past six
months have not changed. The ACA is still in place, the taxes are still in
place, most of the massive numbers of regulations remain in place, minimum
wage laws are pushing people out and machines in (see the recent University
of Washington study of Seattle's jobs market after implementing its $15/hour
minimum wage) -- quite simply, not nearly enough has changed to spark
business creation, innovation, and of course, jobs.

Thus, most all areas showed the same recent trends.

The one change: Government jobs posted strong gains at 35K, almost 100% of
which was at the local level. Fiscal year end for most states and time to
hire and use up your budget or lose it. Heaven forbid any department risk a
budget cut.

Manufacturing: a strong 1K jobs created. Overheating, huh?

Healthcare: 37K
Education: 8K
Construction: 16K
Professional: 45K
Food and Restaurant: 29K
Mining: 8K
Temp: 13.4K

Prognosis: Marginally better but still the same market with 180K jobs per
month average the past six months. No real change, and as noted above,
without serious policy change there is no turning back from an economy that
produces lots of low wage hourly jobs. You cannot do the same thing and
expect change.


THE MARKET

CHARTS

Bounces on low volume and breadth not commensurate with price gains? A
'poser' move?

SP500: The volatility of the past 3 weeks continues. Four times in that
span the index has either gapped up followed immediately by a gap down or
gapped down only to be followed by a gap up, the latest on Thursday and
Friday. That last action occurred at the 50 day MA on Thursday and Friday
and keeps SP500 in position to bounce as it has since March, using the 50
day as support. The volatility is a bit more violent this time around and
this week it will show us if Friday's news-driven, quite low volume bounce
meant anything.

NASDAQ: After breaking the 50 day EMA and the bottom of the four week
pennant attempt, NASDAQ recovered some ground Friday, but remains below the
50 day EMA. Weak volume on the Friday recovery attempt. The Friday action
did not change the struggles for techs and leaves NASDAQ questionable.

SOX: So important to the market. After breaking below the 50 day MA the
prior week and bombing lower Monday, SOX gapped up Wednesday and again
Friday, recovering to the 50 day EMA. Something of an ABCD bounce attempt,
but as noted earlier in the week, not a great ABCD and thus the test of the
50 day MA currently in progress is a major tell for SOX and the overall
market.

RUTX: Small caps are also key as an economic indicator. Thursday they
bombed from the cusp of a new high to the 50 day MA. Friday a strong
rebound definitely keeps them in the game as the jobs report encouraged
small cap investors. The pattern remains solid enough, particularly with
the reaction off the 50 day MA dive.

DJ30: Not really impacted by all of the volatility plaguing the other
indices. DJ30 is in a 3 week lateral choppy range, but is easily holding
the 20 day EMA and is in very good position to finish consolidating and
continue upside. Ironically, DJ30 and the small caps are the most stable
patterns in the market right now.

SP400: Gave up the 50 day MA Thursday with a nasty gap and selloff, but it
held the June intraday lows and reversed Friday with a strong surge back
through the 50 day. That keeps SP400 in the upper part of its range and
similar to RUTX, in contention for a breakout to a higher high. Well, not
as much as RUTX as SP400 has the April, March and then June highs still
ahead of it as of the Friday close.


LEADERSHIP

Buying growth was back on Friday tech, chips, and FAANG attracted the most
interest and thus the largest gains. Before that, those stocks saw weakness
all week with biotechs, machinery, manufacturing and other more 'stoic'
sectors receiving some money. Friday there was rotation back to the growth
and the question is whether they last. From looking at the recent leaders
that tested and the patterns they have, it appears the late week move to
techs, chips is temporary.

FAANG: FB managed to hold through the chop at the 50 day MA and bounce
Friday, but even lower volume here. AMZN moved back through the 50 day MA,
also on very low volume. AAPL remains in a lateral move below the 10 day
EMA. NFLX sold to a Thursday doji, bounced Friday, stronger trade, trying
to bounce back from a selloff in a head and shoulders. GOOG rebounded to
end the week, closing below the 50 day MA after a big break lower. Overall
these stocks still look weak.

Chips: Finished the week on an upside rebound after struggling the most of
any sector. Analyst comments on LRCX, AMAT helped bolster the group Friday.
Key tests for stocks such as AMAT that is back at the 50 day SMA, ditto
LRCX. AVGO managed to break through the 50 day MA Friday. Important week
ahead: a real move higher or just a rebound in overall selling.

Biotechs/Drugs: The stronger moves from Wednesday tempered into the weekend
as money moved back toward chips, tech. CELG jumped Wednesday, then just
drifted higher into Friday. IMGN posted another strong week with higher
highs. ARRY looked good but then struggled Friday. AGEN looks solid to
break higher. Still very good patterns in this group.

Financial: Excellent week. JPM surged early and then drifted upside to end
the week, posting a second good week. GS was up early week but then faded
back to the 10 day EMA Friday; still in great position. C in a very nice
test to end the week, waiting on the 10 day. TCBI tested its break higher,
showing a big doji at the 10 day EMA Friday. Group looks good.

Machinery: Still very good setups after a modest test on the week. TEX at
the 10 day EMA and looks good. CAT is in a flat lateral move after a higher
high. CMI to a higher high. Looks good.

Telecom: Down for 5 weeks after good moves on earnings, many of these are
in very good patterns: SWIR, CIEN.

China: Faded, we will see. NTES at the 50 day MA and we see if it can
bounce. BABA continues working along the 10 day EMA in a 3 week lateral
move. SINA still in its shallow double bottom pullback. SOHU at the 50 day
MA.

Materials: Still solid in many cases, e.g. USCR, CX (concrete), MAS
(general building materials).

Metals: Some good tests to end the week setting up moves. SCHN in a great
breakout test. SID trying to set something up. STLD testing a solid 3 week
move to the top of the range. AKS is the downer of the group, struggling
all week.


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: +94.3 points (+0.44%) to close at 21414.34

Nasdaq
Stats: +63.61 points (+1.04%) to close at 6153.08
Volume: 1.71B (-14.07%)

Up Volume: 1.21B (+853.48M)
Down Volume: 461.67M (-1.148B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.6 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 3.41 to 1

New Highs: 45 (+4)
New Lows: 57 (+17)

S&P
Stats: +15.43 points (+0.64%) to close at 2425.18
NYSE Volume: 735.3M (-16.21%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.23 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 4.19 to 1

New Highs: 82 (+49)
New Lows: 72 (+23)


SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 11.19; -1.35
VXN: 16.81; -1.19
VXO: 9.97; -2.19

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.93; -0.19


Bulls and Bears: No real change, just back and forth in the recent ranges,
Bulls just off highs earlier in the year in the 60's, bears just off lows
around 15. Those readings in the 60's suggest a market pullback, but to
this point, no serious backtracking.

Bulls: 52.5 versus 54.9

Bears: 18.8 versus 18.6

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.





Bulls: 52.5 versus 54.9
54.9 versus 51.5 versus 50.00 versus 55.8 versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus
58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8
versus 49.5 versus 56.7 versus 53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2
versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6
versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3
versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9
versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2

Bears: 18.8 versus 18.6
18.6 versus 18.3 versus 19.2 versus 18.3 versus 17.1 versus 17.3 versus 17.9
versus 17.9 versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3
versus 13.75 versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7
versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6
versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5
versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8
versus 23.1 versus 24.3


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.386% versus 2.368%. Bonds continued to sell all week, now down 8
sessions off the late June rally high, taking out the 200 day SMA Thursday.
Showing the weakness you would anticipate when the Fed is serious about
hiking and, supposedly, economics are better.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.368%
versus 2.34% versus 2.304% versus 2.268% versus 2.20% versus 2.140% versus
2.140% versus 2.148% versus 2.165% versus 2.156% versus 2.191% versus 2.155%
versus 2.162% versus 2.209% versus 2.21% versus 2.21% versus 2.19% versus
2.176% versus 2.14% versus 2.183% versus 2.154% versus 2.21% versus 2.20%


EUR/USD: 1.14010 versus 1.14220. Modest dollar recovery Friday, but euro
made a strong move off a flag test Thursday.

Historical: 1.14220 versus 1.13508 versus 1.13710 versus 1.13510 versus
1.14208 versus 1.14432 versus 1.13786 versus 1.13409 versus 1.11834 versus
1.11928 versus 1.11484 versus 1.11670 versus 1.11346 versus 1.11419 versus
1.11968 versus 1.11466 versus 1.12213 versus 1.12086 versus 1.11930 versus
1.11965 versus 1.1199 versus 1.12491 versus 1.12798 versus 1.12684 versus
1.12811 versus 1.12181 versus 1.12547 versus 1.11768 versus 1.11810 versus
1.12148 versus 1.12240 versus 1.11868 versus 1.12390 versus 1.11916 versus
1.23077 versus 1.10985 versus 1.11557 versus 1.10862 versus 1.09833 versus
1.09328 versus 1.08655 versus 1.08671


USD/JPY: 113.913 versus 113.126. Solid new break higher Thursday and
Friday after a quick test following the move over the 200 day SMA. Dollar
looking better and now very near the May high, the last high before the
selloff into June.

Historical: 113.126 versus 113.253 versus 113.270 versus 112.413 versus
111.993 versus 112.340 versus 112.24 versus 111.943 versus 111.299 versus
111.357 versus 111.278 versus 111.470 versus 111.729 versus 110.873 versus
110.854 versus 109.560 versus 110.060 versus 109.97 versus 110.334 versus
110.299 versus 109.355


Oil: 44.23, -1.29. Well, after a very solid rebound into the range, oil
stalled at the 50 day MA and has suffered two big downside sessions
Wednesday and Friday.


Gold: 1209.70, -13.60. No doubt vexing those believing gold must surge,
instead gold plunges below the May low and is heading for the March low at
1200.


MONDAY

The market did have a jobs report reaction, likely given the Fed set on a
rate hiking and balance sheet reducing mindset. Again, if the Fed is
hiking, the market wants to see positive economic data. But there are
problems. As seen in the GDP reports, corporate profits are falling based
upon the real test, i.e. the tax receipts. That is the real measure of
earnings, not the fake news non-GAAP earnings reported each quarter. The
toads in the Senate are now starting to say they cannot repeal the ACA and
will just have to tinker with its small business and jobs-killing
structures. Hell, there is even talk now that republicans cannot agree on
removing the onerous taxes inside the ACA that utterly crush small
businesses.

If this legislature impotence remains, if they cannot find a shipment of
backbones or at least Viagra for Congress, there won't be any changes in
healthcare or tax policy and the lethargy will continue. That will be
cemented in the midterm elections when the conservatives who voted to have
action taken once again are burned and once again realize voting for the GOP
is pointless. The market figures this stuff out. With no 'got your
backside' Fed, you get reality check. That is some of what you were seeing
in tech and chips during the past month or so.

That does not mean there is not more upside. There are still plenty of good
patterns to play upside. The next decision for the market is which groups
rise. Outside of Wednesday, not much new money is coming in. It is more a
game of moving money around inside the market. If the Fed is on, rates are
rising, growth may have issues. It has had issues the past 6 or so weeks,
and Friday was not really, as shown from the technical discussion, a rebirth
of growth upside.

We will see this week if the Friday money movement to growth sustains.
There are many other solid upside patterns in other groups that have good
roots versus just rebounds from selling. The former is typically more
reliable in making money unless there is a sea change of money on short
order. Likely not the case. They can bounce near term, and we will play
good patterns in those if they are there. At the same time we look at those
really good patterns as well. And of course, bigger picture, it is a weaker
time of the year ahead, the Fed is hiking, economics are not great,
legislative agendas are highly questionable. At some point it all breaks,
but technically it is not at hand unless, again, there is something that
causes a sea change.

Have a great weekend!


SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

NASDAQ: Closed at 6153.08

Resistance:
6205 is the late May all-time high
6300 is the mid-June interim high
6341.70 is the all-time high.

Support:
The 50 day EMA at 6132
The 2016 trendline at 5997
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
5800 from the February consolidation lows
The 200 day SMA at 5705
5661 is the late January upper gap point
5601 is the January lower gap point
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower


S&P 500: Closed at 2425.18

Resistance:
2439 is the early June prior all-time closing high
2453.46 is the all-time closing high

Support:
The 50 day EMA at 2412
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
2301 is the late January 2017 high
The 200 day SMA at 2299
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high


Dow: Closed at 21,414.34

Resistance:
21,535 is the all-time high

Support:
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 21,161
20,553 is the lows of the week of May 15
20,547 is the lower gap point from late April 2017
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,400 is the mid-April 2017 low.
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
The 200 day SMA at 20,040
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
19,732 is the January 2017 low
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015

end part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439

Saturday, July 01, 2017

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 6-30-17

* * * *
6/30/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *

Investment House Daily Subscribers:

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: QRVO
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: SIMO

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.

TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4

TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4

TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************

The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.

MARKET SUMMARY

- Sluggish session ahead of a long time off, indices hold same relative
positions.
- President leaning toward steel tariffs, full ACA repeal.
- Western central banks working together to hike rates, re-engineer their
social engineering.
- All indices continue holding support, SOX lagging but at a deeper support
level.
- Confidence growing in consumers, market advisors. Certainly more upside
must follow?
- Still leaders in many sectors.
- New money can push the market higher, but now we are officially in summer
and a slower time.

If there was ever a session that could be discounted, Friday was the
session. With Independence Day celebrated Tuesday and a half session
Monday, none of the brokerage houses and funds had a full crew, not close.
Thus very low trade, and while there was some movement, most of it simply
held the same flavor as the recent action. In other words, no meaningful
change.

Stocks started higher, at least for the large cap NSYE indices, following
higher futures. At the open, however, stocks sold the gains, taking SP500
and DJ30 to flat while NASDAQ was even weaker than the pre-market
indications. Nothing was out of hand, however, no really heavy selling.

Stocks bottomed over 1.5 hours, bouncing just after the European markets
closed midmorning. A steady recovery to the last few minutes. Stocks
surged to a new session high then reversed violently in the last 15 minutes
to close back near the early session lows.

Up to open, down quickly, a long recovery, then a sharp drop. Sure looks
like a lot of end of quarter positioning driving the ups and downs. Again,
all this action was contained within the recent action and trends of the
various indices. Nothing changed on the session, leaving the new quarter as
the next driver.

Sometimes new money comes in to start a quarter. After this kind of
downside leading into the quarter end the market could see some money push
back in to start Q3 and bounce stocks initially. After that, well, you are
in Q3, and while July can be fine, even August, September is often
unfriendly.

SP500 3.71, 0.15%
NASDAQ -3.93, -0.06%
DJ30 62.60, 0.29%
SP400 0.15%
RUTX -0.06%
SOX -0.53%

VOLUME: NYSE +2%, NASDAQ -17%. NYSE trade edged higher to just above
average on the upside session. Given volume was supposed to be quite light,
that is a testament to some buying in those stocks, the more 'old economy'
stocks. NASDAQ trade was at least lighter and below average as those stocks
sold.

A/D: NYSE 1.6:1, NASDAQ -1.01:1.


NEWS/ECONOMY

The news was more of the same as well? Not really.

The personal spending and incomes rose 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively, in line
more or less with expectations.

The real news Friday and on the week involved central banks and
politicians -- just as it has for over 8 years now.

Steel Tariffs: Reports are that the President has grown tired of listening
to Goldman throw offs and how he should not do anything to rock the boat in
terms of international trade, trade relations, etc.

In a Thursday night meeting, President Trump and a small handful of advisors
bucked most of the cabinet in pushing for a 20% steel tariff on China.
Apparently frustrated with the liberal Goldman Sachs advisors (that he put
in place mind you) as well as seeing his base numbers slipping because Trump
was doing little on the big issues he campaigned on, Trump appears to be
going back to his own instincts, e.g. bashing China. When the meeting
adjourned, those against border taxes, tariffs, and other trade barriers
appeared resigned that some kind of trade sanctions were coming.

Healthcare: The Senate buffoons are heading home, raring to get back to
work -- once they are done not working. Unable to garner support for his
super secret healthcare bill, McConnell did what a master politician and
wily legislator does: he went home. There are calls from within the Senate
(and more without) that they should not take recess without getting
something done to warrant taking a break. The circus just witnessed is not
break-worthy.

So, Trump got back to basics again, tweeting that if the Senate cannot pass
a replacement, then repeal it and start over. Now he is talking. That is
what is needed as outlined Thursday: get the jobs and business killer
repealed, then get together and craft a plan that utilizes the health
communities many doctors are putting together on their own -- and work with
fantastic success -- uses the savings from the massive, massive medicare and
Medicaid payments and creates HAS accounts or pools to cover the costs in
the health communities or other physician of choice, craft rules to promote
inexpensive catastrophic plans that were plentiful and cheap and very good .
. . before the ACA came along.

Do that and then you can take a well-deserved break. Otherwise, get your
lousy butts back to DC and do your job.


Central Banks want lower stock prices to undo some of their handiwork?

CNBC and other outlets Thursday and Friday talked of central bank
coordination, at least in the US, Canada, and Europe, regarding raising
rates. They want higher rates. Why? Because in reality they need higher
rates so they can at least fake stimulus at the next economic crisis. The
question is, will they foster the next crisis by hiking rates when the US
and Canadian economies are not that solid?

They don't think so. Okay, so what about stocks? Will hiking rates lower
stock prices? It can if done as did Greenspan in 2000. The pundits like to
point out that usually stocks rise after the Fed stats hiking rates. Oh
yes, first there is a selloff but they then rise because the Fed would not
hike unless all is well.

Sure they rise. They did for Greenspan . . . after the massive selloff that
finally bottomed and gave way to the upside at the end of Q1 2003!

Apparently, however, the line the Fed is taking is that it doesn't mind if
stocks fall. Williams on Tuesday stated that the market was running on
fumes as it was priced to perfection -- but the Fed still was going to hike
rates.

It was as if he did not mind stocks falling, and frankly that is what you
hear between the lines of the central bank comments. Fed and central bank
policies managed to help the wealthiest in society become even
proportionately wealthier. By a big margin.

Now that the economies are so strong, so clearly never going to have another
financial crisis in our lifetime as Chairman Yellen said Tuesday, it seems
the central banks want to undo what they wrought and bring stock prices
lower and by extension reduce the wealth gap.

Wow is that stupid. The way to reduce the wealth gap is to bring those at
the lower end UP through growth policies that even the playing field skewed
to the large corporation's favor through regulations, through special
contracts, through barriers to entry, through legislation such as the ACA
that penalizes the small companies that cannot match the economies of scale.
And if the big companies still feel they need more, well, just give them a
waiver from the law.

This is the sad state of the western economies. Executives that circumvent
the basic laws and restrictions, legislative branches that don't seem to
care, agencies that write hundreds of thousands of regulations with the
force of law, all to the benefit of those in place, and the detriment of the
smaller players or those with a good idea wanting entry into a market.

This must change, and that is what November was all about. The powers that
be, however, e.g. the old curmudgeons in the Congress, refuse to act
according to those that the people voted in during the last election cycles.
They know better. Thus you have McConnell today, in response to the
President's tweet to repeal the ACA if the Senate bill cannot pass, stating
the HE is uncomfortable with repealing the ACA without a replacement.

Hello? The market is the replacement. Anything these bozos come up with
will just be another form of government control of our health. In the UK a
10 month old child is going to die because the government, the ones in
charge of dolling out healthcare, have decided that life support must be
withdrawn even though the parents have the wherewithal to travel overseas to
obtain the needed treatment.

Insane: it is too expensive in the UK so the socialized medicine won't pay
for it, but the parents are barred from going elsewhere to try and save
their child. The government has determined the child should die. Do we
want that in the US? It is the inevitable outcome if the government takes
control of healthcare. Is that what America was founded upon, i.e. the
government making those kind of life or death decisions for your children
without regard to your wishes? Ask anyone who voted for the adoption of the
Constitution.


THE MARKET

CHARTS

There was no relative change in position or trend. SOX remains weak and
sold more. The other indices tested support yet again. No big changes to
end the week and no real surprises there.

SOX: Continued the downside below the 50 day MA after breaking below that
support Thursday. Lower but still right at the 78% Fibonacci retracement of
the May to early June run and can definitely put in an ABCD pattern. It may
not look as if chips want to rise, but you have to respect the technical
pattern, and if SOX posts a solid upside move, you have to lean toward a
bounce higher of a D point.

NASDAQ: Still sluggish, but still hanging in at the 50 day MA. The pattern
is less than lovely for the upside, but as noted before, if NASDAQ can hold
in at that level then it can rescue itself . . . or more aptly, have the PPT
step in and buy and prime the buyers to take more positions.

DJ30: Up modestly on the session, but gapping upside to show a tight doji
just over the 20 day EMA. DJ30 is holding near support in this test of the
mid-June new high. A bit volatile to end the week but as with the other
indices, it held where it needed to hold.

RUTX: Holding position very well at the 10 day EMA with a tight doji. That
leaves RUTX at the top of the range and right below a new high. If any new
money comes in at all RUTX moves to a new high. It is certainly not acting
as if the economy is struggling.

SP400: Similar to RUTX, just a bit lower below the highs. Trending up the
50 day EMA, in a four month bullish base. Put in a higher low at the 50 day
MA and remains poised to make a move higher.

SP500: After bouncing off the 50 day MA on the Thursday low SP500 gapped
modestly higher. Still easily over the 50 day MA, trending higher similar
to SP400, and not in any real danger.


LEADERSHIP

Not a lot of change. Chips still struggling for the most part, the other
leaders are holding support for the most part.

Financial: Down modestly Friday but this after nice post-stress test gaps
Thursday. C, JPM. GS is a disappointment, gapping Thursday but giving much
back and then fading to the 50 day SMA Friday. Overall, however, still very
good patterns.

Biotechs/Drugs: DVAX in a very nice test of its last surge. IMGN rested
after an excellent second week to the upside. ARRY, VVUS, AGEN still super.
CELG testing the 10 day EMA and the prior high. These look nice.

Materials: Still nice. CX in a solid pattern. USCR in a very nice
breakout test over the 10 day EMA. MAS still testing the 20 day EMA.

Machinery: Solid moves back up after the test, e.g. CAT, CMI. Like how TEX
looks.

Metals: CENX fading to end the week after a good break higher. AKS faded
to the 10 day EMA Friday. FCX holding its move up and through the 50 day
with a lateral move. SCHN continues its move.

China: Struggled on the week but the leaders are still in patterns. SINA
in a double bottom at the 50 day MA and the mid-May gap point. NTES testing
back to the 50 day EMA after a good rally; used this to bounce last rally.
SOHU is still working on its pattern and the 50 day EMA has just about
caught up to the lateral move. BABA showing a doji at the 10 day EMA.
Struggled some on the week but still look promising to rally again.

Chips: Weak week though the stocks did recover off the lows. AMAT gapped
below the 50 day EMA and continued lower through Friday. LRCX the same.
AVGO closed the week below the 50 day MA. SIMO broke down through the 50
day MA on volume. NVDA was a buy according to some, but it likely will test
the 50 day EMA or close to it before it is ready. AMD sold back to the 50
day EMA as of Friday; perhaps it is now ready to bounce again. HIMX still a
very good pattern as not all are terrible but the leaders have sold.

Software: CALD started higher on better volume Friday after a 10 day EMA
test. Nice. DATA struggled all week and closed over the 50 day MA where it
founds support in mid-June. RHT is in a very nice 10 day EMA test after the
breakout gap on earnings.

FAANG: Struggled all week but most closed in a position where they could
bounce. FB is at the 50 day MA and in position to move higher as it did in
May and early June. AMZN is also at the 50 day EMA. AAPL is still working
laterally below the 10 day EMA and 50 day MA. NFLX sold on the week, closed
at a lower June low Friday, but also showing a doji near the early June
support. GOOG looks bad, flopping Friday to a lower low on this selling;
2.4B euro fines can do that.


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: +62.6 points (+0.29%) to close at 21349.63

NASDAQ
Stats: -3.93 points (-0.06%) to close at 6140.42
Volume: 2.01B (-16.6%)

Up Volume: 904.45M (+166.72M)
Down Volume: 1.07B (-570M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.01 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.69 to 1

New Highs: 66 (-9)
New Lows: 23 (-8)

S&P
Stats: +3.71 points (+0.15%) to close at 2423.41
NYSE Volume: 915M (+1.67%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.59 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.33 to 1

New Highs: 67 (-3)
New Lows: 18 (-9)


SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 11.18; -0.26
VXN: 17.61; -0.82
VXO: 10.13; -0.3

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.13; +0.15. Big jump but most likely rolling out
positions to another quarter.


Bulls and Bears: Back and forth week to week the past two months though
holding near the top of the range. Bears similarly holding the same range,
just off the lows.

Bulls: 54.9 versus 51.5

Bears: 18.6 versus 19.4

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.





Bulls: 54.9 versus 51.5
51.5 versus 50.00 versus 55.8 versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus
58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5
versus 56.7 versus 53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8
versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2
versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6
versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1
versus 46.7 versus 45.2

Bears: 18.6 versus 19.4
18.6 versus 18.3 versus 19.2 versus 18.3 versus 17.1 versus 17.3 versus 17.9
versus 17.9 versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3
versus 13.75 versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7
versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6
versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5
versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8
versus 23.1 versus 24.3


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.304% versus 2.268%. Down all week after gapping to a rally high
Monday. Over the 50 day EMA and the mid-April peak. Important test now
that the world central banks, at least US, Canada and European, are
supposedly on the same page.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.268%
versus 2.20% versus 2.140% versus 2.140% versus 2.148% versus 2.165% versus
2.156% versus 2.191% versus 2.155% versus 2.162% versus 2.209% versus 2.21%
versus 2.21% versus 2.19% versus 2.176% versus 2.14% versus 2.183% versus
2.154% versus 2.21% versus 2.20% 2.26% versus 2.255% versus 2.252% versus
2.287% versus 2.254% versus 2.233% versus 2.229% versus 2.223% versus 2.32%
versus 2.34% versus 2.34% versus 2.393% versus 2.401% versus 2.394% versus
2.381% versus 2.354% versus 2.322% versus 2.289% versus 2.322% versus 2.30%
versus 2.31% versus 2.33% versus 2.275% versus 2.236% versus 2.234% versus
2.21% versus 2.15% versus 2.248% versus 2.232% versus 2.264% versus 2.30%
versus 2.36%


EUR/USD: 1.14208 versus 1.14422. Pausing after a 3-session surge out of a
6 week pattern.

Historical: 1.14432 versus 1.13786 versus 1.13409 versus 1.11834 versus
1.11928 versus 1.11484 versus 1.11670 versus 1.11346 versus 1.11419 versus
1.11968 versus 1.11466 versus 1.12213 versus 1.12086 versus 1.11930 versus
1.11965 versus 1.1199 versus 1.12491 versus 1.12798 versus 1.12684 versus
1.12811 versus 1.12181 versus 1.12547 versus 1.11768 versus 1.11810 versus
1.12148 versus 1.12240 versus 1.11868 versus 1.12390 versus 1.11916 versus
1.23077 versus 1.10985 versus 1.11557 versus 1.10862 versus 1.09833 versus
1.09328 versus 1.08655 versus 1.08671 versus 1.08843 versus 1.09286 versus
1.09994 versus 1.09086 versus 1.08923 versus 1.09284 versus 1.090984 versus
1.08987 versus 1.08691 versus 1.09093 versus 1.09358 versus 1.08449 versus
1.07255 versus 1.07255 versus 1.07188 versus 1.0717 versus 1.07304 versus
1.06431 versus 1.06138 versus 1.0671 versus 1.06068 versus 1.05984


USD/JPY: 112.413 versus 111.993. Challenging the 200 day SMA again but not
breaking through thus far.

Historical: 111.993 versus 112.340 versus 112.24 versus 111.943 versus
111.299 versus 111.357 versus 111.278 versus 111.470 versus 111.729 versus
110.873 versus 110.854 versus 109.560 versus 110.060 versus 109.97 versus
110.334 versus 110.299 versus 109.355 versus 110.038 versus 110.446 versus
111.595 versus 110.909 versus 111.086 versus 111.217 versus 111.828 versus
111.678 versus 111.835 versus 111.076 versus 111.534 versus 111.271 versus
111.584 versus 111.167 versus 112.414 versus 113.074 versus 113.749 versus
113.349 versus 113.759 versus 114.263 versus 113.771 versus 113.217 versus
112.683 versus 112.495 versus 112.782 versus 112.779 versus 111.793 versus
111.524 versus 111.197 versus 111. 177 versus 111.234 versus 109.704


Oil: 46.04, +1.11. Picking up speed after breaking below the bottom of the
range then reversing back up into the range. It is picking up speed as it
continues the move, moving past the early May low.


Gold: 1245.80, 0.00. An identical pattern to Thursday, tapping the 200 day
SMA on the low, rebounding to flat and a doji. Okay, STILL an important
test for gold.


MONDAY

A half session Monday and then a closed market Tuesday for Independence Day.
Not expecting any relative change Monday either, but Wednesday is when
things start getting interesting as new money could enter the market.
Consumer sentiment is higher, bullish investors and advisors are up again --
confidence in the market is up.

The index patterns are not bad at all though SOX is questionable, and there
is still leadership. So surely up and away.

Surely or not. There are still setups that can make good upside money. If
they make the moves we want to play them.

We also have downside plays working and others than can be put into play if
the downside continues. The time of the year is a typical weaker period.
In 2016, after a rally into early July the market flattened through most of
July and all of August, dropping in September on into early November. Then
the big rally started post-election.

The thing that would keep the move working, so it seems, would be healthcare
and tax reform. That hope continues to help support the market. Trump is
pretty good at playing the news game and keeping hope alive. Ultimately it
has to pay off or the ruse is up.

For now, again, there are good upside patterns to play in addition to those
sectors to the downside that are losing money to other sectors. We will
continue to be opportunistic and play really good downside plays such as
SWKS, QRVO, AMAT, but also play those areas that are getting the money
pushed their way even as other sectors fall.

Have a great Fourth!


SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

NASDAQ: Closed at 6140.42

Resistance:
6341.70 is the all-time high.
6205 is the late May all-time high

Support:
The 50 day EMA at 6134
The 2016 trendline at 5997
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
5800 from the February consolidation lows
The 200 day SMA at 5688
5661 is the late January upper gap point
5601 is the January lower gap point
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower


S&P 500: Closed at 2423.41

Resistance:
2439 is the early June prior all-time closing high
2453.46 is the all-time closing high

Support:
The 50 day EMA at 2410
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
The 200 day SMA at 2294
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high


Dow: Closed at 21,349.63

Resistance:
21,535 is the all-time high

Support:
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 21,116
20,553 is the lows of the week of May 15
20,547 is the lower gap point from late April 2017
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,400 is the mid-April 2017 low.
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
The 200 day SMA at 19,974
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
19,732 is the January 2017 low
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015

End part 1 of 3
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