Futures vs FV: SP -0.84; DJ -31.84; NASDAQ +10.10
A second day of sluggish action was on tap as futures opened lower and sold off. Then Mr. Lighthizer from the administration stated he would be surprised of the Trump/Xi dinner did not result in a success. That jumped futures higher to trade closer to flat to slightly positive. To recap last night, we anticipate a second, even a third session of pause before the upside resumes.
Trade: The statement from the administration, and from one that saw the prospects of a deal slim, indicates that there is at least a framework to a deal in place heading into the Saturday dinner. What kind of a deal is the question with many opining it is perhaps simply a timeout on the implementation of more tariffs or even impacting some of the current tariffs. No one seems to believe anything major will happen. Remember, the US wants China to act grown up now and stop the process of stealing IP. This even as China still claims it is a poor country and in need of such theft. Here is the bottom line: China is a communist country and those have a very hard time producing new tech because the incentives are not there. Thus, just as the USSR, it expends most of its efforts on stealing tech. Getting it to stop means China must come up with a method for creating its own tech and that takes a long, long time if it is even possible under a communist regime. I posit it is not. THAT is the dilemma, the irreconcilable issue.
Fed: New York Pres John Williams echoes the chair and vice chair that the FFR is just below neutral.
Kashkari says rates should not increase when job creation is strong and inflation tame.
Earnings beats: HPQ, GME (but lowered its outlook); WDAY; VMW; AMBA; PANW
Misses: PVH (TL)
Upgrades: UA (WFC)
Downgrades: GS (BAC)
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 3.017% vs 3.032%
EUR/USD: 1.1355 vs 1.1387
USD/JPY: 113.51 vs 113.42
Oil: 50.61, -0.84
Gold: 1226.40, -4.00
Futures holding the recovery bounce to near flat, trading laterally the past hour. Sluggish but flat start, not a bad continued consolidation of the move up off the October low test. A good stair-step move keeps the yearend advance refreshed.
______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
Alert Key
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Friday, November 30, 2018
Thursday, November 29, 2018
The Daily, Part 1 of 2, 11-29-18
* * * *
11/29/2018 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: ADBE; LRCX; TEAM
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you can sign up at the following link:
https://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Market struggles with a hangover after the Wednesday Powell rush.
- Indices show doji below resistance, several big names as well. Still, others make some great moves.
- G-20 Friday may yield a 'for show' trade deal between US/China.
- A couple more days of testing would be perfect to resume the move higher.
Stocks were indeed a bit hung over after the Wednesday 2-part rally, the one before Powell and the surge post-Powell. Stocks rallied into the Wednesday close and as is often the case, they stumbled around the following session. Started lower, managed to move positive, but could not hold onto the rebound. A bit too soon after such a run on Wednesday.
SP500 -6.03, -0.22%
NASDAQ -18.51, -0.25%
DJ30 -27.59, -0.11%
SP400 -0.12%
RUTX -0.33%
SOX -0.81%
NASDAQ 100 -0.30%
VOLUME: NYSE -14%, NASDAQ -16%. Good to see volume fade as the indices paused the move. Good action.
ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE -1.1:1, NASDAQ -1.2:1.
CHARTS
To view, click on the following links:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/sp500.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/NASDAQ.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/DJ30.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/RUTX.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SP400.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SOX.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/nasdaq100.jpg
If you look at the index charts and the big name charts you see a lot of doji.
DJ30 showed a tight doji just below the 50 day EMA SP500 showing a doji that tapped the 50 day EMA and 200 day SMA on the high before slipping back.
NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 showed doji at some resistance from the early October and early November lows.
SOX had its doji below the 50 day MA, still in its problematic pattern.
SP500 below the 50 day EMA, though still quite some distance from it, and RUTX threw its doji in the middle of nowhere, just over the 20 day EMA.
Leadership and big names showed similar signals. AMZN flipped a doji just below the 200 day SMA after a big Wednesday. GOOG kind of, stalling to close just below the 50 day EMA. MSFT a doji over the 50 day EMA, CRM as well. PEP, JNJ flipped some doji as did the financials, e.g. C, BAC.
Not all, however. PFE, LLY, ABT continued with nice gains. Software surged again (DATA, VRSN, VMW, TEAM). MCD gapped higher along with BA. Not a complete session of pausing to reflect.
Still, lots of doji, many of the best moving indices near resistance. That can indicate a bounce is out of gas. Three sharp days upside into resistance. In a really weak market that can mean rollover. This market is not blowing anyone away the past two months with its upside strength, and thus you have to consider this as a potential rollover point. It is.
But, there is also the Fed backtracking on its hawkishness and a meeting Friday with Trump and Xi at the G-20. It is said that an 'appearance deal' will be struck, that something will be agreed to. In other words, they won't trade blows, hurl insults, but will act nice, agree to agree on some things, and thus both try to salvage a market rebound into yearend.
With those main market headache issues placated temporarily, you would look for the resolution of this doji to be upside and continue the market yearend rally that started this week. I would not expect Friday to generate a significant upside session unless something really decent happens at G-20. That may be reserved for the weekend announcements.
In any event, a 2 to 3 day pause at this juncture is just enough to keep people guessing and allow the market to resume the upside after the initial rush had people thinking of getting in. You know what I mean: the initial rush that catches them by surprise because they were not looking at the patterns, the MACD, the sentiment, the rush that is well underway before they even realize the upside is not reversing midday. They are then about to take the plunge when the market suddenly stalls at the 50 day EMA, 200 day SMA, etc. It stalls one day, then two, then three . . . surely the move is ending. That little 1-2-3 test/rest, however, rejuvenates the bids, and then they are back up and running toward yearend.
That is the way we see it for now -- duly noting that the Thursday doji could indeed be a stall signal versus a continuation doji. That can always happen, but again, the setup is right, the issues are being removed, and the bounce has started. It likely sees it through for a good part of December. After that, who knows.
We picked up a few positions (ADBE, LRCX, TEAM) and will continue to look for more, best after another 1 to 2 days of pause. That will put things ripe to move higher again. That is the perfect scenario, and of course you take what the market gives which often is not the perfect setup, though -- when you look at the double bottoms at the October low you cannot help but shake your head at the typical fall setup that again showed itself.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: -27.59 points (-0.11%) to close at 25338.84
Nasdaq
Stats: -18.51 points (-0.25%) to close at 7273.08
Volume: 2.01B (-15.55%)
Up Volume: 940.37M (-1.1B)
Down Volume: 1.04B (+715.99M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.23 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 3.58 to 1
New Highs: 37 (0)
New Lows: 94 (-62)
S&P
Stats: -6.03 points (-0.22%) to close at 2737.76
NYSE Volume: 797.576M (-13.82%)
Up Volume: 337.679M (-486.072M)
Down Volume: 451.887M (+355.033M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.13 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 4.07 to 1
New Highs: 38 (-2)
New Lows: 168 (-37)
SENTIMENT
VIX: 18.79; +0.30
VXN: 24.33; +0.22
VXO: 21.35; +1.07
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.89; +0.05
Bulls and Bears:
A significant drop in bulls below 40.00 with bears moving back up to 19.8, the recent range top. Bears remain reluctant to surge but bulls are doing a lot of the work for them by dropping into the thirties. This is getting closer to bounce-worthy numbers. Not new bull run numbers, but bounce-worthy.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
42.9 versus 42.5 versus 50.5 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 61.8 versus 60.6 versus 59.0 versus 57.7 versus 60.1 versus 59.6 versus 57.7 versus 57.3 versus 54.9 versus 54.5 versus 54.9 versus 55.3 versus 52.4 versus 47.1 versus 47.6 versus 52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2 versus 49.5 versus 55.5 versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5 versus 41.9 versus 54.4 versus 66.00
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
19.0 versus 19.8 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 18.3 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.5 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.4 versus 17.6 versus 17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2 versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7 versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 3.032% versus 3.061%. Bonds are forming an excellent handle to a double bottom formed in October. Looks as if bonds will break higher, rates lower.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 3.061% versus 3.058% versus 3.059% versus 3.048% versus 3.065% versus 3.074% versus 3.056% versus 3.065% versus 3.116% versus 3.127% versus 3.147% versus 3.186% versus 3.239% versus 3.228% versus 3.222% versus 3.201% versus 3.22% versus 3.146% versus 3.149% versus 3.119% versus 3.089% versus 3.079% versus 3.126% versus 3.111% versus 3.1692% versus 3.20% versus 3.196% versus 3.1779% versus 3.209% versus 3.165% versus 3.158% versus 3.167% versus 3.146% versus 3.169 versus 3.206% versus 3.233% versus 3.189% versus 3.183% versus 3.061% versus 3.087% versus 3.061% versus 3.052% versus 3.048% versus 3.048% versus 3.085% versus 3.066% versus 3.068% versus 3.076% versus 3.057% versus 2.99% versus 3.00% versus 2.972% versus 2.963% versus 2.977% versus 2.937%
EUR/USD: 1.13934 versus 1.13682.
Historical: 1.13682 versus 1.12973 versus 1.13325 versus 1.13380 versus 1.13829 versus 1.13818 versus 1.14484 versus 1.14172 versus 1.13308 versus 1.13264 versus 1.13124 versus 1.12348 versus 1.13475 versus 1.1364 versus 1.14329 versus 1.14228 versus 1.14090 versus 1.13881 versus 1.14019 versus 1.13394 versus 1.13455 versus 1.13760 versus 1.14042 versus 1.13757 versus 1.3972 versus 1.14682 versus 1.14626 versus 1.1538 versus 1.14556 versus 1.14961 versus 1.1578 versus 1.15906 versus 1.15592 versus 1.15901 versus 1.15324 versus 1.4966 versus 1.4916 versus 1.1598 versus 1.15164 versus 1.14762 versus 1.15517 versus 1.15774 versus 1.16038 versus 1.16357 versus 1.17501
USD/JPY: 113.402 versus 113.559. Not a bad test of near support as dollar trades near the top of the 2 month range.
Historical: Last below 109 in June 2018: 113.559 versus 113.781 versus 113.510 versus 112.972 versus 113.007 versus 113.077 versus 112.617 versus 112.831 versus 113.585 versus 113.576. Was at 110 three weeks back.
Oil: 51.45, _1.16. A week holding 50. Oil is trying to set up for a bounce in its ugly downtrend.
Gold: 1224.10, +0.50. Holding the 50 day MA in a test after bouncing. Trying to set up for a move higher now that the Fed is off the strong hiking.
End part 1 of 2
_______________________________________________________
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11/29/2018 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: ADBE; LRCX; TEAM
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you can sign up at the following link:
https://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Market struggles with a hangover after the Wednesday Powell rush.
- Indices show doji below resistance, several big names as well. Still, others make some great moves.
- G-20 Friday may yield a 'for show' trade deal between US/China.
- A couple more days of testing would be perfect to resume the move higher.
Stocks were indeed a bit hung over after the Wednesday 2-part rally, the one before Powell and the surge post-Powell. Stocks rallied into the Wednesday close and as is often the case, they stumbled around the following session. Started lower, managed to move positive, but could not hold onto the rebound. A bit too soon after such a run on Wednesday.
SP500 -6.03, -0.22%
NASDAQ -18.51, -0.25%
DJ30 -27.59, -0.11%
SP400 -0.12%
RUTX -0.33%
SOX -0.81%
NASDAQ 100 -0.30%
VOLUME: NYSE -14%, NASDAQ -16%. Good to see volume fade as the indices paused the move. Good action.
ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE -1.1:1, NASDAQ -1.2:1.
CHARTS
To view, click on the following links:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/sp500.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/NASDAQ.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/DJ30.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/RUTX.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SP400.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SOX.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/nasdaq100.jpg
If you look at the index charts and the big name charts you see a lot of doji.
DJ30 showed a tight doji just below the 50 day EMA SP500 showing a doji that tapped the 50 day EMA and 200 day SMA on the high before slipping back.
NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 showed doji at some resistance from the early October and early November lows.
SOX had its doji below the 50 day MA, still in its problematic pattern.
SP500 below the 50 day EMA, though still quite some distance from it, and RUTX threw its doji in the middle of nowhere, just over the 20 day EMA.
Leadership and big names showed similar signals. AMZN flipped a doji just below the 200 day SMA after a big Wednesday. GOOG kind of, stalling to close just below the 50 day EMA. MSFT a doji over the 50 day EMA, CRM as well. PEP, JNJ flipped some doji as did the financials, e.g. C, BAC.
Not all, however. PFE, LLY, ABT continued with nice gains. Software surged again (DATA, VRSN, VMW, TEAM). MCD gapped higher along with BA. Not a complete session of pausing to reflect.
Still, lots of doji, many of the best moving indices near resistance. That can indicate a bounce is out of gas. Three sharp days upside into resistance. In a really weak market that can mean rollover. This market is not blowing anyone away the past two months with its upside strength, and thus you have to consider this as a potential rollover point. It is.
But, there is also the Fed backtracking on its hawkishness and a meeting Friday with Trump and Xi at the G-20. It is said that an 'appearance deal' will be struck, that something will be agreed to. In other words, they won't trade blows, hurl insults, but will act nice, agree to agree on some things, and thus both try to salvage a market rebound into yearend.
With those main market headache issues placated temporarily, you would look for the resolution of this doji to be upside and continue the market yearend rally that started this week. I would not expect Friday to generate a significant upside session unless something really decent happens at G-20. That may be reserved for the weekend announcements.
In any event, a 2 to 3 day pause at this juncture is just enough to keep people guessing and allow the market to resume the upside after the initial rush had people thinking of getting in. You know what I mean: the initial rush that catches them by surprise because they were not looking at the patterns, the MACD, the sentiment, the rush that is well underway before they even realize the upside is not reversing midday. They are then about to take the plunge when the market suddenly stalls at the 50 day EMA, 200 day SMA, etc. It stalls one day, then two, then three . . . surely the move is ending. That little 1-2-3 test/rest, however, rejuvenates the bids, and then they are back up and running toward yearend.
That is the way we see it for now -- duly noting that the Thursday doji could indeed be a stall signal versus a continuation doji. That can always happen, but again, the setup is right, the issues are being removed, and the bounce has started. It likely sees it through for a good part of December. After that, who knows.
We picked up a few positions (ADBE, LRCX, TEAM) and will continue to look for more, best after another 1 to 2 days of pause. That will put things ripe to move higher again. That is the perfect scenario, and of course you take what the market gives which often is not the perfect setup, though -- when you look at the double bottoms at the October low you cannot help but shake your head at the typical fall setup that again showed itself.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: -27.59 points (-0.11%) to close at 25338.84
Nasdaq
Stats: -18.51 points (-0.25%) to close at 7273.08
Volume: 2.01B (-15.55%)
Up Volume: 940.37M (-1.1B)
Down Volume: 1.04B (+715.99M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.23 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 3.58 to 1
New Highs: 37 (0)
New Lows: 94 (-62)
S&P
Stats: -6.03 points (-0.22%) to close at 2737.76
NYSE Volume: 797.576M (-13.82%)
Up Volume: 337.679M (-486.072M)
Down Volume: 451.887M (+355.033M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.13 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 4.07 to 1
New Highs: 38 (-2)
New Lows: 168 (-37)
SENTIMENT
VIX: 18.79; +0.30
VXN: 24.33; +0.22
VXO: 21.35; +1.07
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.89; +0.05
Bulls and Bears:
A significant drop in bulls below 40.00 with bears moving back up to 19.8, the recent range top. Bears remain reluctant to surge but bulls are doing a lot of the work for them by dropping into the thirties. This is getting closer to bounce-worthy numbers. Not new bull run numbers, but bounce-worthy.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
42.9 versus 42.5 versus 50.5 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 61.8 versus 60.6 versus 59.0 versus 57.7 versus 60.1 versus 59.6 versus 57.7 versus 57.3 versus 54.9 versus 54.5 versus 54.9 versus 55.3 versus 52.4 versus 47.1 versus 47.6 versus 52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2 versus 49.5 versus 55.5 versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5 versus 41.9 versus 54.4 versus 66.00
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
19.0 versus 19.8 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 18.3 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.5 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.4 versus 17.6 versus 17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2 versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7 versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 3.032% versus 3.061%. Bonds are forming an excellent handle to a double bottom formed in October. Looks as if bonds will break higher, rates lower.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 3.061% versus 3.058% versus 3.059% versus 3.048% versus 3.065% versus 3.074% versus 3.056% versus 3.065% versus 3.116% versus 3.127% versus 3.147% versus 3.186% versus 3.239% versus 3.228% versus 3.222% versus 3.201% versus 3.22% versus 3.146% versus 3.149% versus 3.119% versus 3.089% versus 3.079% versus 3.126% versus 3.111% versus 3.1692% versus 3.20% versus 3.196% versus 3.1779% versus 3.209% versus 3.165% versus 3.158% versus 3.167% versus 3.146% versus 3.169 versus 3.206% versus 3.233% versus 3.189% versus 3.183% versus 3.061% versus 3.087% versus 3.061% versus 3.052% versus 3.048% versus 3.048% versus 3.085% versus 3.066% versus 3.068% versus 3.076% versus 3.057% versus 2.99% versus 3.00% versus 2.972% versus 2.963% versus 2.977% versus 2.937%
EUR/USD: 1.13934 versus 1.13682.
Historical: 1.13682 versus 1.12973 versus 1.13325 versus 1.13380 versus 1.13829 versus 1.13818 versus 1.14484 versus 1.14172 versus 1.13308 versus 1.13264 versus 1.13124 versus 1.12348 versus 1.13475 versus 1.1364 versus 1.14329 versus 1.14228 versus 1.14090 versus 1.13881 versus 1.14019 versus 1.13394 versus 1.13455 versus 1.13760 versus 1.14042 versus 1.13757 versus 1.3972 versus 1.14682 versus 1.14626 versus 1.1538 versus 1.14556 versus 1.14961 versus 1.1578 versus 1.15906 versus 1.15592 versus 1.15901 versus 1.15324 versus 1.4966 versus 1.4916 versus 1.1598 versus 1.15164 versus 1.14762 versus 1.15517 versus 1.15774 versus 1.16038 versus 1.16357 versus 1.17501
USD/JPY: 113.402 versus 113.559. Not a bad test of near support as dollar trades near the top of the 2 month range.
Historical: Last below 109 in June 2018: 113.559 versus 113.781 versus 113.510 versus 112.972 versus 113.007 versus 113.077 versus 112.617 versus 112.831 versus 113.585 versus 113.576. Was at 110 three weeks back.
Oil: 51.45, _1.16. A week holding 50. Oil is trying to set up for a bounce in its ugly downtrend.
Gold: 1224.10, +0.50. Holding the 50 day MA in a test after bouncing. Trying to set up for a move higher now that the Fed is off the strong hiking.
End part 1 of 2
_______________________________________________________
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Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
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Market Alert - Pre-Market
Futures vs FV: SP -6.91; DJ -14.43, NASDAQ -29.08
Futures sluggish all morning but off the 6:30ET lows as the market suffers a mild hangover from the WED Powell-induced upside surge. The market was set to bounce, was bouncing, and Powell set the fuel on fire.
Interestingly, it was likely a stroke of genius by Powell. Trump complained the Fed was the cause of the market and economic issues that the slowing data is showing. So, after the public attacks on him, Powell cited the slowing data, said it would be prudent to view the Fed as near neutral, indicating not much more if any hiking. He has taken the Fed out of the picture and people will now view the economic moves vis a vis the administration.
Personal Income, Oct: 0.5 vs 0.4 exp vs 0.2 prior.
Spending: 0.6 vs 0.4 vs 0.2 (from 0.4)
PCE 0.2
Core: 0.1 vs 0.2 expected; 1.8% year/year. Core PCE slowed.
Jobless claims: 234K vs 218K exp vs 224K prior. 8 month high. Has the trend lower been broken? This is now like sentiment: the moves at the extremes are what is important. Jobless claims clearly at extreme lows and now showing a potential break. GM laying off 15K, Ford struggling and my lay off as well.
Earnings beats: EXP; ANF; BOX
Misses: DLTR (TL); GES (BL)
Upgrades: MCD; BA
Downgrades: AAPL
OTHER MARKETS:
Bonds: 3.031% vs 3.061%
EUR/UAD: 1.137 vs 1.1367
USD/JPY: 113.32 vs 113.65
Oil: 51.18, +0.89
Gold: 1226.10, +2.50
Looks as if the market is going to give a bit of that pullback discussed last night, but as the open approaches that pullback is dissipating. DJ futures were -50+ a half hour ago and now are -15. The bids are returning on the dip and not sure if we get much of a shot at lower prices but we will see what the market gives us.
______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm
PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.
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Futures sluggish all morning but off the 6:30ET lows as the market suffers a mild hangover from the WED Powell-induced upside surge. The market was set to bounce, was bouncing, and Powell set the fuel on fire.
Interestingly, it was likely a stroke of genius by Powell. Trump complained the Fed was the cause of the market and economic issues that the slowing data is showing. So, after the public attacks on him, Powell cited the slowing data, said it would be prudent to view the Fed as near neutral, indicating not much more if any hiking. He has taken the Fed out of the picture and people will now view the economic moves vis a vis the administration.
Personal Income, Oct: 0.5 vs 0.4 exp vs 0.2 prior.
Spending: 0.6 vs 0.4 vs 0.2 (from 0.4)
PCE 0.2
Core: 0.1 vs 0.2 expected; 1.8% year/year. Core PCE slowed.
Jobless claims: 234K vs 218K exp vs 224K prior. 8 month high. Has the trend lower been broken? This is now like sentiment: the moves at the extremes are what is important. Jobless claims clearly at extreme lows and now showing a potential break. GM laying off 15K, Ford struggling and my lay off as well.
Earnings beats: EXP; ANF; BOX
Misses: DLTR (TL); GES (BL)
Upgrades: MCD; BA
Downgrades: AAPL
OTHER MARKETS:
Bonds: 3.031% vs 3.061%
EUR/UAD: 1.137 vs 1.1367
USD/JPY: 113.32 vs 113.65
Oil: 51.18, +0.89
Gold: 1226.10, +2.50
Looks as if the market is going to give a bit of that pullback discussed last night, but as the open approaches that pullback is dissipating. DJ futures were -50+ a half hour ago and now are -15. The bids are returning on the dip and not sure if we get much of a shot at lower prices but we will see what the market gives us.
______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm
PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.
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Wednesday, November 28, 2018
The Daily, Part 1, 11-28-18
* * * *
11/28/2018 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: AAPL; ABT; AMAT; BILI; GLUU; HD, NVAX; PEP; UA
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you can sign up at the following link:
https://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy, Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
https://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Powell confirms the softer Fed tone and a rallying market really rallies
- Rather broad rally lifts all indices as growth helps the recovery.
- GDP same but not as solid, New Home Sales post a sharp drop.
- Still looking at some more positions to play the rest of this move, and a bit of an early test may provide that opportunity.
After a pause in the bounce from the test of the October low stocks started higher pre-Powell. When Powell's speech with his 'rates just below neutral' statement hit the wires, stocks shot higher and rallied all the way home. The statement was foreshadowed by Clarida's Tuesday speech that used the same language, but it was Powell's confirmation of those words that sealed the deal. The market now has a Fed that is near neutral and thus ending rate hikes. Indeed, I heard one Fed historian say that the Fed would even end its balance sheet unloading in July 2019. Wow, expecting a downturn I suppose.
The market was not worried about any negatives. The Fed is one of the big market obstacles (along with trade) and that was, more or less, removed today. In response, the stock indices surged higher, continuing that rally off the October low test.
SP500 61.62, 2.30%
NASDAQ 208.89, 2.95%
DJ30 617.70, 2.50%
SP400 1.96%
RUTX 2.51%
SOX 2.27%
NASDAQ 100 3.17%
VOLUME: NYSE +16%, NASDAQ +15%. Volume moved back up to average on both exchanges. Not huge trade, but definitely good enough for a yearend rally.
ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE 4.1:1, NASDAQ 3.6:1. Again, fairly broad.
The index charts show solid action -- sold bounce action. DJ30 has a classic fall double bottom, SP500 as well. NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 are very similar adding an undercut on the second leg as an excellent shakeout move. All sported higher MACD lows on that second leg, that old momentum shift indicator I talked about last week. Nice.
SOX added upside as well though was very tame for SOX, showing less upside than even SP500. Typically its beta is at least 1.5 of the large cap indices. As it is, the index is up but still somewhat a question mark, not as strong as the large cap indices.
SP400 and RUTX both scored solid advances though the midcaps lagged the overall market. Interestingly, the midcaps never tested the October low while RUTX has a more classic double bottom. Still not leaders, but definitely following upside.
Leadership: Gains were rather broad with the 'Dow-type' stocks rallying (VZ was notably absent), tech/growth surging (software flying post-CRM), drugs flying, food strong, financials (yes, verily) strong, FAANG (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG) jumped, transports much improved -- the moves were pretty much across the board.
All clear? For a yearend rally no doubt. For new highs? Hmm. There is still the trade issue out there and the likelihood of no deal or a faux deal at the G-20 meeting between Trump and Xi. Heck, today the Chinese ambassador showed he read the headlines out of a history book, citing how trade issues can become real wars, etc., but he did not read the part about his government being a communist one and inherently flawed. He also did not read modern history about how China steals IP to make tech and economic gains. That has to change or there will be no agreements. Why agree with a thief? We have appeased the thief for decades and all the thief did was become more aggressive. Remember the line from 'Air Force One' when the President (Harrison Ford) says to the VP (Glenn Close) 'if you give a mouse a cookie . . .' and the VP answers 'it will want a glass of milk.' (borrowing from the children's book 'If you give a mouse a cookie'). China equals a case in point.
So, trade is still out there but the Fed is, according to the market and many pundits, off the table. We will see. You still cannot trust the Fed as long as it is in hiking mode. It would be a rarity if it stopped hiking in time.
But, for a yearend rally, the Fed's softening is just right. We picked up some nice positions on AAPL, UA, PEP, ABT, AMAT, etc. to go along with DATA, VRSN, AXP, CREE, MCD, XLNX, JNJ -- and there are still more to buy, particularly if we get just a bit of a pullback early Thursday (LRCX, VMW, ADBE, TEAM -- to mention a few).
NEWS/ECONOMY
There was some news out there other than Powell's 'near neutral' market jet fuel.
GDP Q3, 2nd: 3.5 vs 3.6 exp vs 3.5 1st
Consumption: 3.6 vs 3.9 exp vs 4.0 1st
Core PCE: 1.5
Business Investment: 2.5 vs 0.8 first vs 8.7% Q2
Inventories surged (2.27%), adding more to GDP this time as other areas waned. Specifically, inventories make up 65% of the bottom line number. That makes the quality of this report not as solid. A good report, just lighter on consumption, stronger on inventories, and that is rather classic indication of a bit of economic slowing even as GDP overall remained the same at 3.5%.
New Home Sales, October: -8.9% month/month, -12% year/year. Hefty drop as shown by the decline in mortgage applications, though the past week they bounced 5.3%.
Median price: fell to $309,700, -3.1% year/year. All indicators, including Case/Shiller, show a slowing in prices. That helps offset the surge in mortgage rates -- but just barely.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +108.49 points (+0.44%) to close at 24748.73
Nasdaq
Stats: +0.85 points (+0.01%) to close at 7082.70
Volume: 2.07B (+1.97%)
Up Volume: 1.01B (-570M)
Down Volume: 1.04B (+615.59M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.94 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.49 to 1
New Highs: 14 (-5)
New Lows: 180 (+58)
S&P
Stats: +8.72 points (+0.33%) to close at 2682.17
NYSE Volume: 796.843M (-6.28%)
Up Volume: 355.589M (-261.542M)
Down Volume: 429.561M (+208.454M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.58 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.74 to 1
New Highs: 20 (+6)
New Lows: 233 (+87)
SENTIMENT
VIX: 19.02; +0.12
VXN: 24.73; -1.29
VXO: 21.12; +0.73
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.92; -0.04
Bulls and Bears:
A significant drop in bulls below 40.00 with bears moving back up to 19.8, the recent range top. Bears remain reluctant to surge but bulls are doing a lot of the work for them by dropping into the thirties. This is getting closer to bounce-worthy numbers. Not new bull run numbers, but bounce-worthy.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
42.9 versus 42.5 versus 50.5 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 61.8 versus 60.6 versus 59.0 versus 57.7 versus 60.1 versus 59.6 versus 57.7 versus 57.3 versus 54.9 versus 54.5 versus 54.9 versus 55.3 versus 52.4 versus 47.1 versus 47.6 versus 52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2 versus 49.5 versus 55.5 versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5 versus 41.9 versus 54.4 versus 66.00
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
19.0 versus 19.8 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 18.3 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.5 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.4 versus 17.6 versus 17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2 versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7 versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 3.061% versus 3.058%. Bonds faded, yields bounced -- even as the Fed head softened his rate hike rhetoric.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 3.058% versus 3.059% versus 3.048% versus 3.065% versus 3.074% versus 3.056% versus 3.065% versus 3.116% versus 3.127% versus 3.147% versus 3.186% versus 3.239% versus 3.228% versus 3.222% versus 3.201% versus 3.22% versus 3.146% versus 3.149% versus 3.119% versus 3.089% versus 3.079% versus 3.126% versus 3.111% versus 3.1692% versus 3.20% versus 3.196% versus 3.1779% versus 3.209% versus 3.165% versus 3.158% versus 3.167% versus 3.146% versus 3.169 versus 3.206% versus 3.233% versus 3.189% versus 3.183% versus 3.061% versus 3.087% versus 3.061% versus 3.052% versus 3.048% versus 3.048% versus 3.085% versus 3.066% versus 3.068% versus 3.076% versus 3.057% versus 2.99% versus 3.00% versus 2.972% versus 2.963% versus 2.977% versus 2.937%
EUR/USD: 1.13682 versus 1.12973. Euro jumped back up from a new rollover on Powell's 'put' talk.
Historical: 1.12973 versus 1.13325 versus 1.13380 versus 1.13829 versus 1.13818 versus 1.14484 versus 1.14172 versus 1.13308 versus 1.13264 versus 1.13124 versus 1.12348 versus 1.13475 versus 1.1364 versus 1.14329 versus 1.14228 versus 1.14090 versus 1.13881 versus 1.14019 versus 1.13394 versus 1.13455 versus 1.13760 versus 1.14042 versus 1.13757 versus 1.3972 versus 1.14682 versus 1.14626 versus 1.1538 versus 1.14556 versus 1.14961 versus 1.1578 versus 1.15906 versus 1.15592 versus 1.15901 versus 1.15324 versus 1.4966 versus 1.4916 versus 1.1598 versus 1.15164 versus 1.14762 versus 1.15517 versus 1.15774 versus 1.16038 versus 1.16357 versus 1.17501 versus 1.17658 versus 1.17476 versus 1.17486 versus 1.17772
USD/JPY: 113.559 versus 113.781. Jumped then faded to a loss after four sessions higher off the 50 day EMA.
Historical: Last below 109 in June 2018: 113.781 versus 113.510 versus 112.972 versus 113.007 versus 113.077 versus 112.617 versus 112.831 versus 113.585 versus 113.576. Was at 110 three weeks back.
Oil: 50.29, -1.27. Surged with a gap higher, then fell to close at the Friday closing low on this selloff from October.
Gold: 1223.60, +10.20. Reversed the Tuesday break below the 50 day MA.
THURSDAY
Definitely a solid session Wednesday with a steady move up pre-market, a move higher on the open, and an accelerating move to the close. Great. Good action. The bounce off the October low in a yearend move looks good.
We still want to buy into that move. It would be great if, after such a strong move, there is some give back Thursday. Often you get that after these surges into the close. Not always in this kind of yearend, relief rally move. Thus, we were buying early and late.
Still, we look for a softer open that bottoms, then we can pick up more positions to play this move. There are still many stocks not overbought (unlike, say, DATA), and on a soft open or test we want to use that to pick up positions that are not overdone, can move with rapidity, and have plenty of clear space to run. TEAM, LRCX, VMW -- they are still out there and there is still time in this yearend move.
Have a great evening!
End part 1
_______________________________________________________
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PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.
11/28/2018 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: AAPL; ABT; AMAT; BILI; GLUU; HD, NVAX; PEP; UA
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you can sign up at the following link:
https://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy, Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
https://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Powell confirms the softer Fed tone and a rallying market really rallies
- Rather broad rally lifts all indices as growth helps the recovery.
- GDP same but not as solid, New Home Sales post a sharp drop.
- Still looking at some more positions to play the rest of this move, and a bit of an early test may provide that opportunity.
After a pause in the bounce from the test of the October low stocks started higher pre-Powell. When Powell's speech with his 'rates just below neutral' statement hit the wires, stocks shot higher and rallied all the way home. The statement was foreshadowed by Clarida's Tuesday speech that used the same language, but it was Powell's confirmation of those words that sealed the deal. The market now has a Fed that is near neutral and thus ending rate hikes. Indeed, I heard one Fed historian say that the Fed would even end its balance sheet unloading in July 2019. Wow, expecting a downturn I suppose.
The market was not worried about any negatives. The Fed is one of the big market obstacles (along with trade) and that was, more or less, removed today. In response, the stock indices surged higher, continuing that rally off the October low test.
SP500 61.62, 2.30%
NASDAQ 208.89, 2.95%
DJ30 617.70, 2.50%
SP400 1.96%
RUTX 2.51%
SOX 2.27%
NASDAQ 100 3.17%
VOLUME: NYSE +16%, NASDAQ +15%. Volume moved back up to average on both exchanges. Not huge trade, but definitely good enough for a yearend rally.
ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE 4.1:1, NASDAQ 3.6:1. Again, fairly broad.
The index charts show solid action -- sold bounce action. DJ30 has a classic fall double bottom, SP500 as well. NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 are very similar adding an undercut on the second leg as an excellent shakeout move. All sported higher MACD lows on that second leg, that old momentum shift indicator I talked about last week. Nice.
SOX added upside as well though was very tame for SOX, showing less upside than even SP500. Typically its beta is at least 1.5 of the large cap indices. As it is, the index is up but still somewhat a question mark, not as strong as the large cap indices.
SP400 and RUTX both scored solid advances though the midcaps lagged the overall market. Interestingly, the midcaps never tested the October low while RUTX has a more classic double bottom. Still not leaders, but definitely following upside.
Leadership: Gains were rather broad with the 'Dow-type' stocks rallying (VZ was notably absent), tech/growth surging (software flying post-CRM), drugs flying, food strong, financials (yes, verily) strong, FAANG (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG) jumped, transports much improved -- the moves were pretty much across the board.
All clear? For a yearend rally no doubt. For new highs? Hmm. There is still the trade issue out there and the likelihood of no deal or a faux deal at the G-20 meeting between Trump and Xi. Heck, today the Chinese ambassador showed he read the headlines out of a history book, citing how trade issues can become real wars, etc., but he did not read the part about his government being a communist one and inherently flawed. He also did not read modern history about how China steals IP to make tech and economic gains. That has to change or there will be no agreements. Why agree with a thief? We have appeased the thief for decades and all the thief did was become more aggressive. Remember the line from 'Air Force One' when the President (Harrison Ford) says to the VP (Glenn Close) 'if you give a mouse a cookie . . .' and the VP answers 'it will want a glass of milk.' (borrowing from the children's book 'If you give a mouse a cookie'). China equals a case in point.
So, trade is still out there but the Fed is, according to the market and many pundits, off the table. We will see. You still cannot trust the Fed as long as it is in hiking mode. It would be a rarity if it stopped hiking in time.
But, for a yearend rally, the Fed's softening is just right. We picked up some nice positions on AAPL, UA, PEP, ABT, AMAT, etc. to go along with DATA, VRSN, AXP, CREE, MCD, XLNX, JNJ -- and there are still more to buy, particularly if we get just a bit of a pullback early Thursday (LRCX, VMW, ADBE, TEAM -- to mention a few).
NEWS/ECONOMY
There was some news out there other than Powell's 'near neutral' market jet fuel.
GDP Q3, 2nd: 3.5 vs 3.6 exp vs 3.5 1st
Consumption: 3.6 vs 3.9 exp vs 4.0 1st
Core PCE: 1.5
Business Investment: 2.5 vs 0.8 first vs 8.7% Q2
Inventories surged (2.27%), adding more to GDP this time as other areas waned. Specifically, inventories make up 65% of the bottom line number. That makes the quality of this report not as solid. A good report, just lighter on consumption, stronger on inventories, and that is rather classic indication of a bit of economic slowing even as GDP overall remained the same at 3.5%.
New Home Sales, October: -8.9% month/month, -12% year/year. Hefty drop as shown by the decline in mortgage applications, though the past week they bounced 5.3%.
Median price: fell to $309,700, -3.1% year/year. All indicators, including Case/Shiller, show a slowing in prices. That helps offset the surge in mortgage rates -- but just barely.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +108.49 points (+0.44%) to close at 24748.73
Nasdaq
Stats: +0.85 points (+0.01%) to close at 7082.70
Volume: 2.07B (+1.97%)
Up Volume: 1.01B (-570M)
Down Volume: 1.04B (+615.59M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.94 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.49 to 1
New Highs: 14 (-5)
New Lows: 180 (+58)
S&P
Stats: +8.72 points (+0.33%) to close at 2682.17
NYSE Volume: 796.843M (-6.28%)
Up Volume: 355.589M (-261.542M)
Down Volume: 429.561M (+208.454M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.58 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.74 to 1
New Highs: 20 (+6)
New Lows: 233 (+87)
SENTIMENT
VIX: 19.02; +0.12
VXN: 24.73; -1.29
VXO: 21.12; +0.73
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.92; -0.04
Bulls and Bears:
A significant drop in bulls below 40.00 with bears moving back up to 19.8, the recent range top. Bears remain reluctant to surge but bulls are doing a lot of the work for them by dropping into the thirties. This is getting closer to bounce-worthy numbers. Not new bull run numbers, but bounce-worthy.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
42.9 versus 42.5 versus 50.5 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 61.8 versus 60.6 versus 59.0 versus 57.7 versus 60.1 versus 59.6 versus 57.7 versus 57.3 versus 54.9 versus 54.5 versus 54.9 versus 55.3 versus 52.4 versus 47.1 versus 47.6 versus 52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2 versus 49.5 versus 55.5 versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5 versus 41.9 versus 54.4 versus 66.00
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
19.0 versus 19.8 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 18.3 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.5 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.4 versus 17.6 versus 17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2 versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7 versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 3.061% versus 3.058%. Bonds faded, yields bounced -- even as the Fed head softened his rate hike rhetoric.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 3.058% versus 3.059% versus 3.048% versus 3.065% versus 3.074% versus 3.056% versus 3.065% versus 3.116% versus 3.127% versus 3.147% versus 3.186% versus 3.239% versus 3.228% versus 3.222% versus 3.201% versus 3.22% versus 3.146% versus 3.149% versus 3.119% versus 3.089% versus 3.079% versus 3.126% versus 3.111% versus 3.1692% versus 3.20% versus 3.196% versus 3.1779% versus 3.209% versus 3.165% versus 3.158% versus 3.167% versus 3.146% versus 3.169 versus 3.206% versus 3.233% versus 3.189% versus 3.183% versus 3.061% versus 3.087% versus 3.061% versus 3.052% versus 3.048% versus 3.048% versus 3.085% versus 3.066% versus 3.068% versus 3.076% versus 3.057% versus 2.99% versus 3.00% versus 2.972% versus 2.963% versus 2.977% versus 2.937%
EUR/USD: 1.13682 versus 1.12973. Euro jumped back up from a new rollover on Powell's 'put' talk.
Historical: 1.12973 versus 1.13325 versus 1.13380 versus 1.13829 versus 1.13818 versus 1.14484 versus 1.14172 versus 1.13308 versus 1.13264 versus 1.13124 versus 1.12348 versus 1.13475 versus 1.1364 versus 1.14329 versus 1.14228 versus 1.14090 versus 1.13881 versus 1.14019 versus 1.13394 versus 1.13455 versus 1.13760 versus 1.14042 versus 1.13757 versus 1.3972 versus 1.14682 versus 1.14626 versus 1.1538 versus 1.14556 versus 1.14961 versus 1.1578 versus 1.15906 versus 1.15592 versus 1.15901 versus 1.15324 versus 1.4966 versus 1.4916 versus 1.1598 versus 1.15164 versus 1.14762 versus 1.15517 versus 1.15774 versus 1.16038 versus 1.16357 versus 1.17501 versus 1.17658 versus 1.17476 versus 1.17486 versus 1.17772
USD/JPY: 113.559 versus 113.781. Jumped then faded to a loss after four sessions higher off the 50 day EMA.
Historical: Last below 109 in June 2018: 113.781 versus 113.510 versus 112.972 versus 113.007 versus 113.077 versus 112.617 versus 112.831 versus 113.585 versus 113.576. Was at 110 three weeks back.
Oil: 50.29, -1.27. Surged with a gap higher, then fell to close at the Friday closing low on this selloff from October.
Gold: 1223.60, +10.20. Reversed the Tuesday break below the 50 day MA.
THURSDAY
Definitely a solid session Wednesday with a steady move up pre-market, a move higher on the open, and an accelerating move to the close. Great. Good action. The bounce off the October low in a yearend move looks good.
We still want to buy into that move. It would be great if, after such a strong move, there is some give back Thursday. Often you get that after these surges into the close. Not always in this kind of yearend, relief rally move. Thus, we were buying early and late.
Still, we look for a softer open that bottoms, then we can pick up more positions to play this move. There are still many stocks not overbought (unlike, say, DATA), and on a soft open or test we want to use that to pick up positions that are not overdone, can move with rapidity, and have plenty of clear space to run. TEAM, LRCX, VMW -- they are still out there and there is still time in this yearend move.
Have a great evening!
End part 1
_______________________________________________________
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Market Alert - The Close
After a pause in the bounce from the test of the October low stocks started higher pre-Powell. When Powell's speech with his 'rates just below neutral' statement hit the wires, stocks shot higher and rallied all the way home. The statement was foreshadowed by Clarida's Tuesday speech that used the same language, but it was Powell's confirmation of those words that sealed the deal. The market now has a Fed that is near neutral and thus ending rate hikes. Indeed, I heard one Fed historian say that the Fed would even end its balance sheet unloading in July 2019. Wow, expecting a downturn I suppose.
The market was not worried about any negatives. The Fed is one of the big market obstacles (along with trade) and that was, more or less, removed today. In response, the stock indices surged higher, continuing that rally off the October low test.
SP500 61.62, 2.30%
NASDAQ 208.89, 2.95%
DJ30 617.70, 2.50%
SP400 1.96%
RUTX 2.51%
SOX 2.27%
NASDAQ 100 3.17%
The index charts show solid action -- sold bounce action. DJ30 has a classic fall double bottom, SP500 as well. NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 are very similar adding an undercut on the second leg as an excellent shakeout move. All sported higher MACD lows on that second leg, that old momentum shift indicator I talked about last week. Nice.
SOX added upside as well though was very tame for SOX, showing less upside than even SP500. Typically its beta is at least 1.5 of the large cap indices. As it is, the index is up but still somewhat a question mark, not as strong as the large cap indices.
SP400 and RUTX both scored solid advances though the midcaps lagged the overall market. Interestingly, the midcaps never tested the October low while RUTX has a more classic double bottom. Still not leaders, but definitely following upside.
Leadership: Gains were rather broad with the 'Dow-type' stocks rallying (VZ was notably absent), tech/growth surging (software flying post-CRM), drugs flying, food strong, financials (yes, verily) strong, FAANG (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG) jumped, transports much improved -- the moves were pretty much across the board.
All clear? For a yearend rally no doubt. For new highs? Hmm. There is still the trade issue out there and the likelihood of no deal or a faux deal at the G-20 meeting between Trump and Xi. Heck, today the Chinese ambassador showed he read the headlines out of a history book, citing how trade issues can become real wars, etc., but he did not read the part about his government being a communist one and inherently flawed. He also did not read modern history about how China steals IP to make tech and economic gains. That has to change or there will be no agreements. Why agree with a thief? We have appeased the thief for decades and all the thief did was become more aggressive. Remember the line from 'Air Force One' when the President (Harrison Ford) says to the VP (Glenn Close) 'if you give a mouse a cookie . . .' and the VP answers 'it will want a glass of milk.' (borrowing from the children's book 'If you give a mouse a cookie'). China equals a case in point.
So, trade is still out there but the Fed is, according to the market and many pundits, off the table. We will see. You still cannot trust the Fed as long as it is in hiking mode. It would be a rarity if it stopped hiking in time.
But, for a yearend rally, the Fed's softening is just right. We picked up some nice positions on AAPL, UA, PEP, ABT, AMAT, etc. to go along with DATA, VRSN, AXP, CREE, MCD, XLNX, JNJ -- and there are still more to buy, particularly if we get just a bit of a pullback early Thursday (LRCX, VMW, ADBE, TEAM -- to mention a few).
Have a great evening!
______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm
PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.
Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php
The market was not worried about any negatives. The Fed is one of the big market obstacles (along with trade) and that was, more or less, removed today. In response, the stock indices surged higher, continuing that rally off the October low test.
SP500 61.62, 2.30%
NASDAQ 208.89, 2.95%
DJ30 617.70, 2.50%
SP400 1.96%
RUTX 2.51%
SOX 2.27%
NASDAQ 100 3.17%
The index charts show solid action -- sold bounce action. DJ30 has a classic fall double bottom, SP500 as well. NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 are very similar adding an undercut on the second leg as an excellent shakeout move. All sported higher MACD lows on that second leg, that old momentum shift indicator I talked about last week. Nice.
SOX added upside as well though was very tame for SOX, showing less upside than even SP500. Typically its beta is at least 1.5 of the large cap indices. As it is, the index is up but still somewhat a question mark, not as strong as the large cap indices.
SP400 and RUTX both scored solid advances though the midcaps lagged the overall market. Interestingly, the midcaps never tested the October low while RUTX has a more classic double bottom. Still not leaders, but definitely following upside.
Leadership: Gains were rather broad with the 'Dow-type' stocks rallying (VZ was notably absent), tech/growth surging (software flying post-CRM), drugs flying, food strong, financials (yes, verily) strong, FAANG (AAPL, AMZN, GOOG) jumped, transports much improved -- the moves were pretty much across the board.
All clear? For a yearend rally no doubt. For new highs? Hmm. There is still the trade issue out there and the likelihood of no deal or a faux deal at the G-20 meeting between Trump and Xi. Heck, today the Chinese ambassador showed he read the headlines out of a history book, citing how trade issues can become real wars, etc., but he did not read the part about his government being a communist one and inherently flawed. He also did not read modern history about how China steals IP to make tech and economic gains. That has to change or there will be no agreements. Why agree with a thief? We have appeased the thief for decades and all the thief did was become more aggressive. Remember the line from 'Air Force One' when the President (Harrison Ford) says to the VP (Glenn Close) 'if you give a mouse a cookie . . .' and the VP answers 'it will want a glass of milk.' (borrowing from the children's book 'If you give a mouse a cookie'). China equals a case in point.
So, trade is still out there but the Fed is, according to the market and many pundits, off the table. We will see. You still cannot trust the Fed as long as it is in hiking mode. It would be a rarity if it stopped hiking in time.
But, for a yearend rally, the Fed's softening is just right. We picked up some nice positions on AAPL, UA, PEP, ABT, AMAT, etc. to go along with DATA, VRSN, AXP, CREE, MCD, XLNX, JNJ -- and there are still more to buy, particularly if we get just a bit of a pullback early Thursday (LRCX, VMW, ADBE, TEAM -- to mention a few).
Have a great evening!
______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm
PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.
Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php
Market Alert - Powell
Powell reiterated Clarinda's 'just below neutral' comments. The market spiked on the news, adding to gains, and is still winding higher. Will see how this holds into the afternoon session, but it is boosting the indices across the board. Picked up some AAPL and UA earlier, and of course others are looking good post-Powell. We will see how they hold as noted.
SP500 41.58, 1.55$
NASDAQ 146.04, 2.05%
DJ30 452,07, 1.83%
SP400 1.31%
RUTX 1.5%
SOX 1.3%
NASDAQ 100 2.15%
______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm
PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.
Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php
SP500 41.58, 1.55$
NASDAQ 146.04, 2.05%
DJ30 452,07, 1.83%
SP400 1.31%
RUTX 1.5%
SOX 1.3%
NASDAQ 100 2.15%
______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm
PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.
Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php
Market Alert - Pre-Market
Futures vs FV: SP +12.93; DJ +141.27; NASDAQ +42.51
Futures on a steady rise all morning though peaked out, holding most of the gains, after the Q3 GDP second revision. A steady build as shown is a much better indication than the gap to a spot and then stuck there. This is a good indication the move off that test of the October low continues.
GDP Q3, 2nd: 3.5 vs 3.6 exp vs 3.5 1st
Consumption: 3.6 vs 3.9 exp vs 4.0 1st
Core PCE: 1.5
Business Investment: 2.5 vs 0.8 first vs 8.7% Q2
Inventories surged, adding more to GDP this time as other areas waned. That makes the quality of this report not as solid.
Fed: Powell speaks at 12:00ET in what is called his most important speech yet. Of course people are looking at hints for a Fed softening. Recent Fed speakers (Tuesday) have been read as leaning toward a softening for 2019.
Fed Funds Futures: Now showing 1 to 2 hikes in 2019 versus the 2 to 3 previously.
Mnuchin is reported to have been lobbying the Fed for alternatives to rate hikes.
Brexit: May changes course, says will allow parliament to alter Brexit deal.
TIF: Sales fade, reportedly on fewer Chinese buyers.
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 3.064% vs 3.059%
EUR/USD: 1.128 vs 1.1294
USD/JPY: 113.86 vs 113.79
Oil: 51.16, -0.40
Gold; 1213.00, -0.40
Market is set to move higher and continue the bounce off the October low test after a Tuesday pause that saw stocks come back from a weak open. The market has a lead. The past few weeks it could not hold a lead. Now it looks as if it can do that. We will see if we can get a few more good entries to go with those we have already picked up as this move started to gel.
______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm
PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.
Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php
Futures on a steady rise all morning though peaked out, holding most of the gains, after the Q3 GDP second revision. A steady build as shown is a much better indication than the gap to a spot and then stuck there. This is a good indication the move off that test of the October low continues.
GDP Q3, 2nd: 3.5 vs 3.6 exp vs 3.5 1st
Consumption: 3.6 vs 3.9 exp vs 4.0 1st
Core PCE: 1.5
Business Investment: 2.5 vs 0.8 first vs 8.7% Q2
Inventories surged, adding more to GDP this time as other areas waned. That makes the quality of this report not as solid.
Fed: Powell speaks at 12:00ET in what is called his most important speech yet. Of course people are looking at hints for a Fed softening. Recent Fed speakers (Tuesday) have been read as leaning toward a softening for 2019.
Fed Funds Futures: Now showing 1 to 2 hikes in 2019 versus the 2 to 3 previously.
Mnuchin is reported to have been lobbying the Fed for alternatives to rate hikes.
Brexit: May changes course, says will allow parliament to alter Brexit deal.
TIF: Sales fade, reportedly on fewer Chinese buyers.
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 3.064% vs 3.059%
EUR/USD: 1.128 vs 1.1294
USD/JPY: 113.86 vs 113.79
Oil: 51.16, -0.40
Gold; 1213.00, -0.40
Market is set to move higher and continue the bounce off the October low test after a Tuesday pause that saw stocks come back from a weak open. The market has a lead. The past few weeks it could not hold a lead. Now it looks as if it can do that. We will see if we can get a few more good entries to go with those we have already picked up as this move started to gel.
______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm
PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.
Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php
Tuesday, November 27, 2018
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 11-27-18
* * * *
11/27/2018 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: BABA; PG; VZ
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you can sign up at the following link:
https://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Tariff comments start all indices lower but NYSE large caps recover decently.
- NASDAQ trades well enough given the tariff issues for AAPL.
- Small and midcaps struggle.
- Large cap NYSE rebound but chips, China not bad.
- CRM afterhours earnings may provide the next boost in the rally attempt.
Tuesday was a tale of two markets, both of them sluggish. All started lower after the President's comments Monday night that if talks with China do not work out he would likely place 10% tariffs on other thus far non-tariffed Chinese manufactured good, and that would include AAPL. Nothing like running right at one of the favored companies in the US to get things off to a slow start.
From that lower start, however, the indices diverged. SP400 and RUTX started lower and then trended lower the entire session posting hefty losses. The large cap indices started lower then trended higher. NASDAQ and SOX did so until midmorning, faded, tried again in mid-afternoon. SP500 and DJ30 just trended higher all day long to the close. In the end their gains were nowhere near the severity of the smaller caps' losses, but they did recover from a bad open. Even AAPL managed to close positive on the session. Another tariff scare, but the market came back. Not bad resilience.
SP500 8.72, 0.33%
NASDAQ 0.85, 0.01%
DJ30 108.49, 0.44%
SP400 -0.80%
RUTX -0.87%
SOX 0.20%
NASDAQ 100 0.34%
Okay, not bad resilience, but it was not a great session. Came back from selling and that is good, but the patterns are still problematic: put in a test of the October low, trying to bounce, not convincing anyone that much just yet.
Perhaps DJ30 is a bit different. It was the league leader Tuesday in terms of a percentage move, posting what was truly a good reversal. Why did it perform? It has many of the recent leaders that tested for a week and then resumed the move. Tuesday VZ was stellar with a 2.5% move. MCD continued upside a second session, PG rallied 0.85%, HD rallied 2% after we dropped the play. MRK 1.2%, PFE 1.7%, KO 1%, JNJ 1.3%, UNH 1.9%, WBA 2.2%. You recognize these names, the trending stocks that are trending higher, not lower. Heck, even INTC kicked in 1.3% -- good pattern, just not trending higher yet.
Thus, the same leaders started leading again. Is the market back to DJ30 stocks leading, the rest trending lower?
Chips suggests perhaps not. CRM's great earnings afterhours and the effect on tech stocks such as AMZN, NFLX, AAPL also suggest not. Perhaps it just won't be Dow stocks leading higher as the market tries to put in that bounce off the test of the October low. The resilience Tuesday of AAPL and stocks such as INTC show there is some stomach for a bounce even after the President's comments and before CRMS's strong earnings afterhours. Not even more comments after the Tuesday close from Trump ("I'm not even a little bit happy with my selection of Jay [Powell]") stymied the post-CRM upside move.
CHARTS
To view, click on the following links:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/sp500.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/NASDAQ.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/DJ30.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/RUTX.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SP400.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SOX.jpg
DJ30 started lower, giving up at least half of the Monday move back. It then reversed and rallied to a very respectable gain given all the distance travelled. The double bottom effort off higher MACD is still in place.
SP500 showed almost identical action as it opened lower, sold, then reversed to a gain. Volume faded, so not that strong, but not that harsh of selling either. At the 10 day EMA, its first test.
NASDAQ gapped lower, reversed, closed flat, again just below the 10 day EMA. INTC, AMZN and company may help it break on through Wednesday.
SOX showed the same action as it sold, turned back up, tried a break through the 20 day EMA but could not make it stick. Chips do look better: INTC, AMD, AVGO, AMAT. Possibilities.
RUTX, SP400 sold back on the day, showing relatively a lot of weakness. Even so, their patterns are not wrecked, just not leading.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +108.49 points (+0.44%) to close at 24748.73
Nasdaq
Stats: +0.85 points (+0.01%) to close at 7082.70
Volume: 2.07B (+1.97%)
Up Volume: 1.01B (-570M)
Down Volume: 1.04B (+615.59M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.94 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.49 to 1
New Highs: 14 (-5)
New Lows: 180 (+58)
S&P
Stats: +8.72 points (+0.33%) to close at 2682.17
NYSE Volume: 796.843M (-6.28%)
Up Volume: 355.589M (-261.542M)
Down Volume: 429.561M (+208.454M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.58 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.74 to 1
New Highs: 20 (+6)
New Lows: 233 (+87)
SENTIMENT
VIX: 19.02; +0.12
VXN: 24.73; -1.29
VXO: 21.12; +0.73
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.92; -0.04
Bulls and Bears:
A significant drop in bulls below 40.00 with bears moving back up to 19.8, the recent range top. Bears remain reluctant to surge but bulls are doing a lot of the work for them by dropping into the thirties. This is getting closer to bounce-worthy numbers. Not new bull run numbers, but bounce-worthy.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
42.9 versus 42.5 versus 50.5 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 61.8 versus 60.6 versus 59.0 versus 57.7 versus 60.1 versus 59.6 versus 57.7 versus 57.3 versus 54.9 versus 54.5 versus 54.9 versus 55.3 versus 52.4 versus 47.1 versus 47.6 versus 52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2 versus 49.5 versus 55.5 versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5 versus 41.9 versus 54.4 versus 66.00
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
19.0 versus 19.8 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 18.3 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.5 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.4 versus 17.6 versus 17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2 versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7 versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 3.058% versus 3.059%. Still paused after the 3 week rally off the low.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 3.059% versus 3.048% versus 3.065% versus 3.074% versus 3.056% versus 3.065% versus 3.116% versus 3.127% versus 3.147% versus 3.186% versus 3.239% versus 3.228% versus 3.222% versus 3.201% versus 3.22% versus 3.146% versus 3.149% versus 3.119% versus 3.089% versus 3.079% versus 3.126% versus 3.111% versus 3.1692% versus 3.20% versus 3.196% versus 3.1779% versus 3.209% versus 3.165% versus 3.158% versus 3.167% versus 3.146% versus 3.169 versus 3.206% versus 3.233% versus 3.189% versus 3.183% versus 3.061% versus 3.087% versus 3.061% versus 3.052% versus 3.048% versus 3.048% versus 3.085% versus 3.066% versus 3.068% versus 3.076% versus 3.057% versus 2.99% versus 3.00% versus 2.972% versus 2.963% versus 2.977% versus 2.937%
EUR/USD: 1.12973 versus 1.13325. Euro broke lower again.
Historical: 1.13325 versus 1.13380 versus 1.13829 versus 1.13818 versus 1.14484 versus 1.14172 versus 1.13308 versus 1.13264 versus 1.13124 versus 1.12348 versus 1.13475 versus 1.1364 versus 1.14329 versus 1.14228 versus 1.14090 versus 1.13881 versus 1.14019 versus 1.13394 versus 1.13455 versus 1.13760 versus 1.14042 versus 1.13757 versus 1.3972 versus 1.14682 versus 1.14626 versus 1.1538 versus 1.14556 versus 1.14961 versus 1.1578 versus 1.15906 versus 1.15592 versus 1.15901 versus 1.15324 versus 1.4966 versus 1.4916 versus 1.1598 versus 1.15164 versus 1.14762 versus 1.15517 versus 1.15774 versus 1.16038 versus 1.16357 versus 1.17501 versus 1.17658 versus 1.17476 versus 1.17486 versus 1.17772
USD/JPY: 113.781 versus 113.510. Moving higher again.
Historical: Last below 109 in June 2018: 113.510 versus 112.972 versus 113.007 versus 113.077 versus 112.617 versus 112.831 versus 113.585 versus 113.576. Was at 110 three weeks back.
Oil: 51.56, -0.07%. Oil holds the long for a second session after a big drop. Still an ugly trend lower, just taking a pause for now.
Gold: 1213.40, -9.00. Gold breaks below the 50 day MA's after a weeklong lateral move.
WEDNESDAY
A bit of resilience on the day, some afterhours upside moves suggest the relief move can continue. Same issues of Fed, trade, economic questions, market showing staying power. Perhaps for now enough bad news is built in for the indices to continue higher off the double bottom test of the October low. With the recent leaders resuming their moves, chips looking ready to move along with some big names after the CRM assist, China stocks in great patterns . . . it looks a bit better for that move.
Wednesday Q3 GDP second iteration is out, inventories, and New Home sales are scheduled, then Thursday Personal Spending and in the afternoon the FOMC November meeting minutes. More of the same.
Again, we will see if the move that started Monday continues after facing down, somewhat, a setback Tuesday.
Have a great evening!
End part 1
_______________________________________________________
Member: tweet@investbilling.com
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.
11/27/2018 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: BABA; PG; VZ
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you can sign up at the following link:
https://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Tariff comments start all indices lower but NYSE large caps recover decently.
- NASDAQ trades well enough given the tariff issues for AAPL.
- Small and midcaps struggle.
- Large cap NYSE rebound but chips, China not bad.
- CRM afterhours earnings may provide the next boost in the rally attempt.
Tuesday was a tale of two markets, both of them sluggish. All started lower after the President's comments Monday night that if talks with China do not work out he would likely place 10% tariffs on other thus far non-tariffed Chinese manufactured good, and that would include AAPL. Nothing like running right at one of the favored companies in the US to get things off to a slow start.
From that lower start, however, the indices diverged. SP400 and RUTX started lower and then trended lower the entire session posting hefty losses. The large cap indices started lower then trended higher. NASDAQ and SOX did so until midmorning, faded, tried again in mid-afternoon. SP500 and DJ30 just trended higher all day long to the close. In the end their gains were nowhere near the severity of the smaller caps' losses, but they did recover from a bad open. Even AAPL managed to close positive on the session. Another tariff scare, but the market came back. Not bad resilience.
SP500 8.72, 0.33%
NASDAQ 0.85, 0.01%
DJ30 108.49, 0.44%
SP400 -0.80%
RUTX -0.87%
SOX 0.20%
NASDAQ 100 0.34%
Okay, not bad resilience, but it was not a great session. Came back from selling and that is good, but the patterns are still problematic: put in a test of the October low, trying to bounce, not convincing anyone that much just yet.
Perhaps DJ30 is a bit different. It was the league leader Tuesday in terms of a percentage move, posting what was truly a good reversal. Why did it perform? It has many of the recent leaders that tested for a week and then resumed the move. Tuesday VZ was stellar with a 2.5% move. MCD continued upside a second session, PG rallied 0.85%, HD rallied 2% after we dropped the play. MRK 1.2%, PFE 1.7%, KO 1%, JNJ 1.3%, UNH 1.9%, WBA 2.2%. You recognize these names, the trending stocks that are trending higher, not lower. Heck, even INTC kicked in 1.3% -- good pattern, just not trending higher yet.
Thus, the same leaders started leading again. Is the market back to DJ30 stocks leading, the rest trending lower?
Chips suggests perhaps not. CRM's great earnings afterhours and the effect on tech stocks such as AMZN, NFLX, AAPL also suggest not. Perhaps it just won't be Dow stocks leading higher as the market tries to put in that bounce off the test of the October low. The resilience Tuesday of AAPL and stocks such as INTC show there is some stomach for a bounce even after the President's comments and before CRMS's strong earnings afterhours. Not even more comments after the Tuesday close from Trump ("I'm not even a little bit happy with my selection of Jay [Powell]") stymied the post-CRM upside move.
CHARTS
To view, click on the following links:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/sp500.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/NASDAQ.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/DJ30.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/RUTX.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SP400.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SOX.jpg
DJ30 started lower, giving up at least half of the Monday move back. It then reversed and rallied to a very respectable gain given all the distance travelled. The double bottom effort off higher MACD is still in place.
SP500 showed almost identical action as it opened lower, sold, then reversed to a gain. Volume faded, so not that strong, but not that harsh of selling either. At the 10 day EMA, its first test.
NASDAQ gapped lower, reversed, closed flat, again just below the 10 day EMA. INTC, AMZN and company may help it break on through Wednesday.
SOX showed the same action as it sold, turned back up, tried a break through the 20 day EMA but could not make it stick. Chips do look better: INTC, AMD, AVGO, AMAT. Possibilities.
RUTX, SP400 sold back on the day, showing relatively a lot of weakness. Even so, their patterns are not wrecked, just not leading.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +108.49 points (+0.44%) to close at 24748.73
Nasdaq
Stats: +0.85 points (+0.01%) to close at 7082.70
Volume: 2.07B (+1.97%)
Up Volume: 1.01B (-570M)
Down Volume: 1.04B (+615.59M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.94 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.49 to 1
New Highs: 14 (-5)
New Lows: 180 (+58)
S&P
Stats: +8.72 points (+0.33%) to close at 2682.17
NYSE Volume: 796.843M (-6.28%)
Up Volume: 355.589M (-261.542M)
Down Volume: 429.561M (+208.454M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.58 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.74 to 1
New Highs: 20 (+6)
New Lows: 233 (+87)
SENTIMENT
VIX: 19.02; +0.12
VXN: 24.73; -1.29
VXO: 21.12; +0.73
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.92; -0.04
Bulls and Bears:
A significant drop in bulls below 40.00 with bears moving back up to 19.8, the recent range top. Bears remain reluctant to surge but bulls are doing a lot of the work for them by dropping into the thirties. This is getting closer to bounce-worthy numbers. Not new bull run numbers, but bounce-worthy.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
42.9 versus 42.5 versus 50.5 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 61.8 versus 60.6 versus 59.0 versus 57.7 versus 60.1 versus 59.6 versus 57.7 versus 57.3 versus 54.9 versus 54.5 versus 54.9 versus 55.3 versus 52.4 versus 47.1 versus 47.6 versus 52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2 versus 49.5 versus 55.5 versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5 versus 41.9 versus 54.4 versus 66.00
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
19.0 versus 19.8 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 18.3 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.5 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.4 versus 17.6 versus 17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2 versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7 versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 3.058% versus 3.059%. Still paused after the 3 week rally off the low.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 3.059% versus 3.048% versus 3.065% versus 3.074% versus 3.056% versus 3.065% versus 3.116% versus 3.127% versus 3.147% versus 3.186% versus 3.239% versus 3.228% versus 3.222% versus 3.201% versus 3.22% versus 3.146% versus 3.149% versus 3.119% versus 3.089% versus 3.079% versus 3.126% versus 3.111% versus 3.1692% versus 3.20% versus 3.196% versus 3.1779% versus 3.209% versus 3.165% versus 3.158% versus 3.167% versus 3.146% versus 3.169 versus 3.206% versus 3.233% versus 3.189% versus 3.183% versus 3.061% versus 3.087% versus 3.061% versus 3.052% versus 3.048% versus 3.048% versus 3.085% versus 3.066% versus 3.068% versus 3.076% versus 3.057% versus 2.99% versus 3.00% versus 2.972% versus 2.963% versus 2.977% versus 2.937%
EUR/USD: 1.12973 versus 1.13325. Euro broke lower again.
Historical: 1.13325 versus 1.13380 versus 1.13829 versus 1.13818 versus 1.14484 versus 1.14172 versus 1.13308 versus 1.13264 versus 1.13124 versus 1.12348 versus 1.13475 versus 1.1364 versus 1.14329 versus 1.14228 versus 1.14090 versus 1.13881 versus 1.14019 versus 1.13394 versus 1.13455 versus 1.13760 versus 1.14042 versus 1.13757 versus 1.3972 versus 1.14682 versus 1.14626 versus 1.1538 versus 1.14556 versus 1.14961 versus 1.1578 versus 1.15906 versus 1.15592 versus 1.15901 versus 1.15324 versus 1.4966 versus 1.4916 versus 1.1598 versus 1.15164 versus 1.14762 versus 1.15517 versus 1.15774 versus 1.16038 versus 1.16357 versus 1.17501 versus 1.17658 versus 1.17476 versus 1.17486 versus 1.17772
USD/JPY: 113.781 versus 113.510. Moving higher again.
Historical: Last below 109 in June 2018: 113.510 versus 112.972 versus 113.007 versus 113.077 versus 112.617 versus 112.831 versus 113.585 versus 113.576. Was at 110 three weeks back.
Oil: 51.56, -0.07%. Oil holds the long for a second session after a big drop. Still an ugly trend lower, just taking a pause for now.
Gold: 1213.40, -9.00. Gold breaks below the 50 day MA's after a weeklong lateral move.
WEDNESDAY
A bit of resilience on the day, some afterhours upside moves suggest the relief move can continue. Same issues of Fed, trade, economic questions, market showing staying power. Perhaps for now enough bad news is built in for the indices to continue higher off the double bottom test of the October low. With the recent leaders resuming their moves, chips looking ready to move along with some big names after the CRM assist, China stocks in great patterns . . . it looks a bit better for that move.
Wednesday Q3 GDP second iteration is out, inventories, and New Home sales are scheduled, then Thursday Personal Spending and in the afternoon the FOMC November meeting minutes. More of the same.
Again, we will see if the move that started Monday continues after facing down, somewhat, a setback Tuesday.
Have a great evening!
End part 1
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Market Alert - To the Close
Sluggish to start, sluggish most of the day, but a slow, steady rise. Much of the move that held is with the large cap NYSE stocks that led before the last test, e.g. PG, VZ, CLX, MCD, JNJ -- all bouncing quite decently.
Chips were up but then faded. Software not bad but not racing higher. Late session, however, most everything is getting a bid. Will see how that plays out.
The news trickled out over the session with the Fed's Bullard saying he saw possible cracks in growth and that a slowdown now would make further hikes a tough call. Wow, 'possible' cracks? And then stating the obvious: if the Fed sees the economy slow there is less impetus for further rate hikes. Earning those big bucks. Bullard is non-voting right now.
Kudlow: In a post-GM meeting interview Kudlow was quite put out with the hardness of GM announcing layoffs less than a month to Christmas. Trump was less than kind, saying he might end GM's subsidies. Not sure how many there are and what amount, but that is an interesting tactic and one GM should expect from this administration.
On China, Kudlow stated that he "can't find much change to [China's] approach.' So . . . going nowhere with trade for now. One gets the feeling that the eternally optimist Kudlow is sandbagging a bit. Just a feeling.
We picked up some VZ early as well as some BABA. VZ quite strong, BABA was strong but then came Kudlow. Thus far the China stocks have weathered the negatives. Have to do it again. Also picked up some PG.
SP500 6.29, 0.23%
NASDAQ -4.42, -0.06%
DJ30 80.60, 0.33%
SP400 -0.84%
RUTX -0.88%
SOX 0.19%
NASDAQ 100 0.22%
______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Chips were up but then faded. Software not bad but not racing higher. Late session, however, most everything is getting a bid. Will see how that plays out.
The news trickled out over the session with the Fed's Bullard saying he saw possible cracks in growth and that a slowdown now would make further hikes a tough call. Wow, 'possible' cracks? And then stating the obvious: if the Fed sees the economy slow there is less impetus for further rate hikes. Earning those big bucks. Bullard is non-voting right now.
Kudlow: In a post-GM meeting interview Kudlow was quite put out with the hardness of GM announcing layoffs less than a month to Christmas. Trump was less than kind, saying he might end GM's subsidies. Not sure how many there are and what amount, but that is an interesting tactic and one GM should expect from this administration.
On China, Kudlow stated that he "can't find much change to [China's] approach.' So . . . going nowhere with trade for now. One gets the feeling that the eternally optimist Kudlow is sandbagging a bit. Just a feeling.
We picked up some VZ early as well as some BABA. VZ quite strong, BABA was strong but then came Kudlow. Thus far the China stocks have weathered the negatives. Have to do it again. Also picked up some PG.
SP500 6.29, 0.23%
NASDAQ -4.42, -0.06%
DJ30 80.60, 0.33%
SP400 -0.84%
RUTX -0.88%
SOX 0.19%
NASDAQ 100 0.22%
______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Market Alert - Pre-Market
Futures vs FV: SP -12.45; DJ -126.24; NASDAQ -35.09
Futures tailed off Monday night on the President's comments regarding possible outcomes with the China trade issue. That included putting tariffs on products not currently subject to tariffs, e.g. AAPL products manufactured in China. AAPL sold off and futures with it.
Futures started higher early on, though below the Monday close, but have trailed off again over the past 5 hours.
Fed: Clarida gave a much anticipated speech. Everyone wanted to hear what the newest member had to say. Everyone appears to have heard what they want. Some say he was a parrot of the Fed's hawkish mantra, staying the course on hikes. Others said he was showing the 'new' more recent look of the Fed, a data dependent Fed. He did say the FFR was 'just below' the Fed's long-term neutral estimate. That looks more dovish than the hawkish stance. It appears to us the Fed is prepping for stopping after a December hike. It is adjusting expectations well away from Powell's comments now almost two months ago. That is our opinion; bond yields are higher today and futures are lower, not moving up on the Clarida comments.
Black Friday/Cyber Monday: AMZN says CM sales +20%. Overall CM sales jumped $7.9B.
Housing: Case/Shiller +5.1%, the slowest rise since January 2017.
Earnings: Just misses this morning. HIBB (TL, BL); BKE (TL, BL).
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 3.068% vs 3.059%. Bonds lower, yields higher after Fed's Clarida delivers speech.
EUR/USD: 1.1322 vs 1.1325
USD/JPY: 113.61 VS 113.56
Oil: 51.51, -0.12
Gold: 1221.30, -1.10
After an upside Monday stocks are set to open lower on trade worries and the trade overlay. Monday saw bounces from the prior week's drop to test the October low. If the bounce has any staying power it will limit the losses. Perhaps we get some early dips in stocks that moved higher Monday and then a recovery. If so, we could get some entries with good confidence on VZ, BABA and the like.
______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Futures tailed off Monday night on the President's comments regarding possible outcomes with the China trade issue. That included putting tariffs on products not currently subject to tariffs, e.g. AAPL products manufactured in China. AAPL sold off and futures with it.
Futures started higher early on, though below the Monday close, but have trailed off again over the past 5 hours.
Fed: Clarida gave a much anticipated speech. Everyone wanted to hear what the newest member had to say. Everyone appears to have heard what they want. Some say he was a parrot of the Fed's hawkish mantra, staying the course on hikes. Others said he was showing the 'new' more recent look of the Fed, a data dependent Fed. He did say the FFR was 'just below' the Fed's long-term neutral estimate. That looks more dovish than the hawkish stance. It appears to us the Fed is prepping for stopping after a December hike. It is adjusting expectations well away from Powell's comments now almost two months ago. That is our opinion; bond yields are higher today and futures are lower, not moving up on the Clarida comments.
Black Friday/Cyber Monday: AMZN says CM sales +20%. Overall CM sales jumped $7.9B.
Housing: Case/Shiller +5.1%, the slowest rise since January 2017.
Earnings: Just misses this morning. HIBB (TL, BL); BKE (TL, BL).
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 3.068% vs 3.059%. Bonds lower, yields higher after Fed's Clarida delivers speech.
EUR/USD: 1.1322 vs 1.1325
USD/JPY: 113.61 VS 113.56
Oil: 51.51, -0.12
Gold: 1221.30, -1.10
After an upside Monday stocks are set to open lower on trade worries and the trade overlay. Monday saw bounces from the prior week's drop to test the October low. If the bounce has any staying power it will limit the losses. Perhaps we get some early dips in stocks that moved higher Monday and then a recovery. If so, we could get some entries with good confidence on VZ, BABA and the like.
______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
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Monday, November 26, 2018
The Daily, Part 1, 11-26-18
* * * *
11/26/2018 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: AXP; DATA; ENPH; VRSN
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you can sign up at the following link:
https://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
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The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy, Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
https://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
https://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- The bounce was set up, stocks bounced.
- Some new areas look decent, some old areas move well, the recent leaders were sluggish.
- Black Friday sales solid but it is a lagging indicator. That is okay: the Fed is a lacking as well.
- Picked up some new positions, looking at more on this BOUNCE.
After last week's test of the October lows by all but SP400, the indices started the week upside. The futures gapped higher, stocks range-traded for three hours, then rallied to session highs at the close. Not bad with gaps upside, holding the move, then rallying to the close.
SP500 40.89, 1.55%
NASDAQ 142.87, 2.06%
DJ30 354.29, 1.46%
SP400 1.25%
RUTX 1.16%
SOX 1.91%
NASDAQ 100 2.31%
VOLUME: NYSE +96%, NASDAQ +112%. Jumped, but still below average and thus not so grand in the grand scheme.
ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE 1.7:1, NASDAQ 1.5:1. Wow, that scares . . . no one.
Of course volume was up after the Friday half session, but it was still below average on NYSE and NASDAQ. Basically it was a technical move with the indices really oversold and a test of the October selloff low. The selling put the recent leaders in a near support test while others such as the semiconductors, China stocks, and some software formed decent patterns to turn and rebound. They started bouncing Monday with varying degrees of success, e.g. XLNX QIWI, DATA. We picked up some AXP as it jumped sharply post-Black Friday and we took half positions on DATA and VRSN. Perhaps we should have bought some BABA as it gapped over the 50 day MA, but figured we would see if this gap held and if so then move in.
The recent leaders in the NYSE large caps were not as powerful as we wanted to see. AXP showed great strength, MCD looked good off the 20 day MA. AES and other utilities jumped nicely. Some toyed with bouncing but were not terribly convincing, e.g. VZ, PG. Still others did nothing e.g. the drugs (JNJ, LLY).
The big name NASDAQ were very mixed. AMZN rode the Black Friday sales positives higher on decently strong volume. Not bad, but a lot of other big names that were the last rally's leaders failed to really make convincing moves. Not necessarily a surprise, but typically these get bids again as many try to play the last move yet again.
NEWS/ECONOMY
The big news of course were strong Black Friday weekend sales and what looked like a strong following Monday. The economy is not dead yet, but as noted before, sales are the same as jobs in terms of predictive nature: they are both lagging as they are both lagging indicators. Thus, while they may be buying now, they may regret it in Q1.
That said, that also means the Fed has the cover to stay the course with the December rate hike as it can point to the strong retail season. Definitely good to see strong sales -- helped by a continuing drop in oil and thus gasoline prices -- but if the market is worried about an overactive Federal Reserve, that is the kind of data that plays into the Fed's hands.
The rest of the news flow was rehash of the same stories:
Italy softened its position regarding the EU debt structuring and budget, giving some false hope all will be well in the EU.
A Brexit deal is purportedly in place, also alleviating some of the recent angst and stress as it is fish or cut bait time.
GM is closing a plant in Ontario, Canada, raising the President's ire, but of course this is a plant that makes sedans, an area GM has curtailed sharply because sedans don't make it any money. Thus, GM is criticized for being slow to make the changes needed to boost profitability, but when it does make the changes it is criticized by others for potentially turning thousands of employed into unemployed.
Trade and AAPL: Afterhours the President talked about his upcoming meeting with Xi at the G-20 summit, stating he felt he could reach a deal with Xi, but he was not sure that Xi was in a position to act on the points that are the most important to the US, e.g. IP theft. If not, the President casually tossed out, he could always increase the tariffs. SPY futures fell on the news as did AAPL, dropping back to just below where it started the day, giving up the day's 1.35% move and a bit more.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
Upside gaps and rallies with one of the main features being that the sellers perhaps tried a bit midmorning to midday, but failed and the market rallied in in the afternoon session.
Another interesting feature is that pretty much everyone views this as a bear market where you can have a bounce but the bounce is only fool's money, at least if you are playing for new highs in the indices. Hey, we feel that any bounce has to prove it can make new highs and frankly we don't believe they can. Still, you play what the market presents. A second selloff, matching and surpassing the prior closing lows. Bullish advisors fell into the 30% range. MACD holding higher on this leg lower. Leading stocks holding near support while other areas show upside recovery patterns (China, chips, software) that could provide a boost. Lots of bear market gloom that is perhaps overlooking the bounce indications right in front of it. Note: still calling any upside a bounce in selling until it can prove otherwise.
DJ30: A Friday close below the October low with higher MACD. That shows some upside momentum developed, and Monday a gap upside and a rally to close near the session high. Not huge trade, still below average, but at least it topped the Wednesday pre-holiday level. Not a lot to hang the hat on, not a lot of big moves outside of AXP, but enough positive moves for a good Dow gain.
SP500: also closed below the October low Friday, gapping upside and rallying Monday on near average volume. Closed close to the session high and inside the gap zone from the prior Tuesday. MACD was higher on this test of the October low, indicating the upside momentum that showed itself Monday. Okay, a start higher from an oversold test of the prior low.
NASDAQ: Last week NASDAQ undercut the closing an intraday lows from October, landing on the 2016 up trendline. MACD nicely higher, showing that positive divergence. NASDAQ bounced then faded again Friday. Monday a gap back through last week's downside gap. Volume rather paltry even with the FAANG members all showing at least average volume. But, we are not looking at a move to new highs, right? Thus lower volume is not the bane it typically would be.
SOX: Never undercut any of the October lows before rebounding. The Monday move was not blowout, gapping upside through the 10 day EMA, testing and recovering, remaining below the 20 day EMA the entire session. The pattern mimics many of the better positions in the sector, i.e., coming off the low and setting up a pattern that can rally decently.
RUTX: The small caps never undercut the October lows either, but they still put in a decent double bottom pattern and started higher Wednesday, continuing into Monday. Not a power move but it is enough that it made the bounce off the double bottom and is following.
SP400: Never came close to the October lows before moving up Wednesday off the Tuesday second leg low. Gapped upside Monday, rallied to close just below the 20 day EMA that held it in check mid-November. Okay, the lick log for the midcaps in their higher low trying to do more.
LEADERSHIP
Drugs: Sluggish big names, some up and some down, most not moving much e.g. LLY, PFE, MRK, JNJ. Some smaller drugs and biotechs are interesting, e.g. XOMA, IMGN, ARRY.
Food: Not much movement Monday. PEP up modestly, KO still holding the 20 day EMA. MCD bounced from the 20 day EMA decently but not a surge. KR at the 50 day MA. GIS diving, POST unable to do anything after that surge just over a week back.
Telecom: VZ remains the king. It was up Monday but not really strong. If it continues it is a buy.
Software: DATA, VRSN posted good moves and we picked them up. Others were up but don't have impressive patterns, e.g. ADBE, FFIV, CRM. TTWO is just off its low but interesting, AVID looks great but is a pretty light volume stock.
China: BABA gapped over the 50 day MA. QIWI but in a solid move. SOHU looks good to move higher. CTRP and SINA could do the same along with ATHM and HTHT. BILI still looks nice.
Semiconductors: XLNX shot higher again. MCHP started but no volume. ENPH gapped on better trade. ON faded off the gap, but looks good if it rebounds. INTC trying to move off the 50 day MA. Still setting up.
FAANG: GOOG looks pretty decent but it is still in a trend lower form the 200 day SMA. AMZN gapped and rallied on almost average volume. Still a very iffy pattern. FB made it to the 10 day EMA but still mired in the downtrend. AAPL gapped upside after its straight drop, but it gave up its gains afterhours on the Trump comments. NFLX holding at its lower lows, NVDA gapped upside but for now, big deal.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +354.29 points (+1.46%) to close at 24640.24
Nasdaq
Stats: +142.87 points (+2.06%) to close at 7081.85
Volume: 2.03B (+111.9%)
Up Volume: 1.58B (+1.067B)
Down Volume: 424.41M (-13.15M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.49 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.18 to 1
New Highs: 19 (-1)
New Lows: 122 (+40)
S&P
Stats: +40.89 points (+1.55%) to close at 2673.45
NYSE Volume: 850.253M (+96.41%)
Up Volume: 617.132M (+472.549M)
Down Volume: 221.107M (-66.945M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.74 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.24 to 1
New Highs: 14 (+10)
New Lows: 146 (-26)
SENTIMENT
VIX: 18.90; -2.62
VXN: 26.02; -1.91
VXO: 20.39; -3.37
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.96; -0.16
Bulls and Bears:
A significant drop in bulls below 40.00 with bears moving back up to 19.8, the recent range top. Bears remain reluctant to surge but bulls are doing a lot of the work for them by dropping into the thirties. This is getting closer to bounce-worthy numbers. Not new bull run numbers, but bounce-worthy.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
42.9 versus 42.5 versus 50.5 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 61.8 versus 60.6 versus 59.0 versus 57.7 versus 60.1 versus 59.6 versus 57.7 versus 57.3 versus 54.9 versus 54.5 versus 54.9 versus 55.3 versus 52.4 versus 47.1 versus 47.6 versus 52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2 versus 49.5 versus 55.5 versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5 versus 41.9 versus 54.4 versus 66.00
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
19.0 versus 19.8 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 18.3 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.5 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.4 versus 17.6 versus 17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2 versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7 versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 3.059% versus 3.048%. Faded to test the move through the 50 day EMA.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 3.048% versus 3.065% versus 3.074% versus 3.056% versus 3.065% versus 3.116% versus 3.127% versus 3.147% versus 3.186% versus 3.239% versus 3.228% versus 3.222% versus 3.201% versus 3.22% versus 3.146% versus 3.149% versus 3.119% versus 3.089% versus 3.079% versus 3.126% versus 3.111% versus 3.1692% versus 3.20% versus 3.196% versus 3.1779% versus 3.209% versus 3.165% versus 3.158% versus 3.167% versus 3.146% versus 3.169 versus 3.206% versus 3.233% versus 3.189% versus 3.183% versus 3.061% versus 3.087% versus 3.061% versus 3.052% versus 3.048% versus 3.048% versus 3.085% versus 3.066% versus 3.068% versus 3.076% versus 3.057% versus 2.99% versus 3.00% versus 2.972% versus 2.963% versus 2.977% versus 2.937%
EUR/USD: 1.13325 versus 1.13380. Euro tried to rally, gave it all away.
Historical: 1.13380 versus 1.13829 versus 1.13818 versus 1.14484 versus 1.14172 versus 1.13308 versus 1.13264 versus 1.13124 versus 1.12348 versus 1.13475 versus 1.1364 versus 1.14329 versus 1.14228 versus 1.14090 versus 1.13881 versus 1.14019 versus 1.13394 versus 1.13455 versus 1.13760 versus 1.14042 versus 1.13757 versus 1.3972 versus 1.14682 versus 1.14626 versus 1.1538 versus 1.14556 versus 1.14961 versus 1.1578 versus 1.15906 versus 1.15592 versus 1.15901 versus 1.15324 versus 1.4966 versus 1.4916 versus 1.1598 versus 1.15164 versus 1.14762 versus 1.15517 versus 1.15774 versus 1.16038 versus 1.16357 versus 1.17501 versus 1.17658 versus 1.17476 versus 1.17486 versus 1.17772
USD/JPY: 113.510 versus 112.972. Nice surge higher versus the yen and off the 50 day MA.
Historical: Last below 109 in June 2018: 112.972 versus 113.007 versus 113.077 versus 112.617 versus 112.831 versus 113.585 versus 113.576. Was at 110 three weeks back.
Oil: 51.63, +1.21. Okay, rebounded, but two really sharp declines (Tuesday and Friday) in the past four sessions. Not much upside solace from this move.
Gold: 1222.40, -0.80. Holding tight at the 50 day EMA in a lateral move.
TUESDAY
Okay, the bounce started after the October low test, a test that saw a pretty much straight drop. MACD higher, bullish advisors below 40, tons of gloom. The mood was right.
Some decent patterns in the recent leadership, but outside of AXP, the moves were not lighting up the board.
Some other groups trying to assert themselves such as China, semiconductors, some software, perhaps some smaller drugs.
Again, we do not view this as a rally that results in new index highs. The conditions are right for a bounce. That bounce started, we picked up some well-situated stocks. We are looking at more from existing plays that we have not yet entered as well as some new plays that are showing very good action. Whoever moves first we are ready to pick up to play the bounce.
Have a great evening!
End part 1
_______________________________________________________
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11/26/2018 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: AXP; DATA; ENPH; VRSN
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you can sign up at the following link:
https://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy, Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
https://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
https://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- The bounce was set up, stocks bounced.
- Some new areas look decent, some old areas move well, the recent leaders were sluggish.
- Black Friday sales solid but it is a lagging indicator. That is okay: the Fed is a lacking as well.
- Picked up some new positions, looking at more on this BOUNCE.
After last week's test of the October lows by all but SP400, the indices started the week upside. The futures gapped higher, stocks range-traded for three hours, then rallied to session highs at the close. Not bad with gaps upside, holding the move, then rallying to the close.
SP500 40.89, 1.55%
NASDAQ 142.87, 2.06%
DJ30 354.29, 1.46%
SP400 1.25%
RUTX 1.16%
SOX 1.91%
NASDAQ 100 2.31%
VOLUME: NYSE +96%, NASDAQ +112%. Jumped, but still below average and thus not so grand in the grand scheme.
ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE 1.7:1, NASDAQ 1.5:1. Wow, that scares . . . no one.
Of course volume was up after the Friday half session, but it was still below average on NYSE and NASDAQ. Basically it was a technical move with the indices really oversold and a test of the October selloff low. The selling put the recent leaders in a near support test while others such as the semiconductors, China stocks, and some software formed decent patterns to turn and rebound. They started bouncing Monday with varying degrees of success, e.g. XLNX QIWI, DATA. We picked up some AXP as it jumped sharply post-Black Friday and we took half positions on DATA and VRSN. Perhaps we should have bought some BABA as it gapped over the 50 day MA, but figured we would see if this gap held and if so then move in.
The recent leaders in the NYSE large caps were not as powerful as we wanted to see. AXP showed great strength, MCD looked good off the 20 day MA. AES and other utilities jumped nicely. Some toyed with bouncing but were not terribly convincing, e.g. VZ, PG. Still others did nothing e.g. the drugs (JNJ, LLY).
The big name NASDAQ were very mixed. AMZN rode the Black Friday sales positives higher on decently strong volume. Not bad, but a lot of other big names that were the last rally's leaders failed to really make convincing moves. Not necessarily a surprise, but typically these get bids again as many try to play the last move yet again.
NEWS/ECONOMY
The big news of course were strong Black Friday weekend sales and what looked like a strong following Monday. The economy is not dead yet, but as noted before, sales are the same as jobs in terms of predictive nature: they are both lagging as they are both lagging indicators. Thus, while they may be buying now, they may regret it in Q1.
That said, that also means the Fed has the cover to stay the course with the December rate hike as it can point to the strong retail season. Definitely good to see strong sales -- helped by a continuing drop in oil and thus gasoline prices -- but if the market is worried about an overactive Federal Reserve, that is the kind of data that plays into the Fed's hands.
The rest of the news flow was rehash of the same stories:
Italy softened its position regarding the EU debt structuring and budget, giving some false hope all will be well in the EU.
A Brexit deal is purportedly in place, also alleviating some of the recent angst and stress as it is fish or cut bait time.
GM is closing a plant in Ontario, Canada, raising the President's ire, but of course this is a plant that makes sedans, an area GM has curtailed sharply because sedans don't make it any money. Thus, GM is criticized for being slow to make the changes needed to boost profitability, but when it does make the changes it is criticized by others for potentially turning thousands of employed into unemployed.
Trade and AAPL: Afterhours the President talked about his upcoming meeting with Xi at the G-20 summit, stating he felt he could reach a deal with Xi, but he was not sure that Xi was in a position to act on the points that are the most important to the US, e.g. IP theft. If not, the President casually tossed out, he could always increase the tariffs. SPY futures fell on the news as did AAPL, dropping back to just below where it started the day, giving up the day's 1.35% move and a bit more.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
Upside gaps and rallies with one of the main features being that the sellers perhaps tried a bit midmorning to midday, but failed and the market rallied in in the afternoon session.
Another interesting feature is that pretty much everyone views this as a bear market where you can have a bounce but the bounce is only fool's money, at least if you are playing for new highs in the indices. Hey, we feel that any bounce has to prove it can make new highs and frankly we don't believe they can. Still, you play what the market presents. A second selloff, matching and surpassing the prior closing lows. Bullish advisors fell into the 30% range. MACD holding higher on this leg lower. Leading stocks holding near support while other areas show upside recovery patterns (China, chips, software) that could provide a boost. Lots of bear market gloom that is perhaps overlooking the bounce indications right in front of it. Note: still calling any upside a bounce in selling until it can prove otherwise.
DJ30: A Friday close below the October low with higher MACD. That shows some upside momentum developed, and Monday a gap upside and a rally to close near the session high. Not huge trade, still below average, but at least it topped the Wednesday pre-holiday level. Not a lot to hang the hat on, not a lot of big moves outside of AXP, but enough positive moves for a good Dow gain.
SP500: also closed below the October low Friday, gapping upside and rallying Monday on near average volume. Closed close to the session high and inside the gap zone from the prior Tuesday. MACD was higher on this test of the October low, indicating the upside momentum that showed itself Monday. Okay, a start higher from an oversold test of the prior low.
NASDAQ: Last week NASDAQ undercut the closing an intraday lows from October, landing on the 2016 up trendline. MACD nicely higher, showing that positive divergence. NASDAQ bounced then faded again Friday. Monday a gap back through last week's downside gap. Volume rather paltry even with the FAANG members all showing at least average volume. But, we are not looking at a move to new highs, right? Thus lower volume is not the bane it typically would be.
SOX: Never undercut any of the October lows before rebounding. The Monday move was not blowout, gapping upside through the 10 day EMA, testing and recovering, remaining below the 20 day EMA the entire session. The pattern mimics many of the better positions in the sector, i.e., coming off the low and setting up a pattern that can rally decently.
RUTX: The small caps never undercut the October lows either, but they still put in a decent double bottom pattern and started higher Wednesday, continuing into Monday. Not a power move but it is enough that it made the bounce off the double bottom and is following.
SP400: Never came close to the October lows before moving up Wednesday off the Tuesday second leg low. Gapped upside Monday, rallied to close just below the 20 day EMA that held it in check mid-November. Okay, the lick log for the midcaps in their higher low trying to do more.
LEADERSHIP
Drugs: Sluggish big names, some up and some down, most not moving much e.g. LLY, PFE, MRK, JNJ. Some smaller drugs and biotechs are interesting, e.g. XOMA, IMGN, ARRY.
Food: Not much movement Monday. PEP up modestly, KO still holding the 20 day EMA. MCD bounced from the 20 day EMA decently but not a surge. KR at the 50 day MA. GIS diving, POST unable to do anything after that surge just over a week back.
Telecom: VZ remains the king. It was up Monday but not really strong. If it continues it is a buy.
Software: DATA, VRSN posted good moves and we picked them up. Others were up but don't have impressive patterns, e.g. ADBE, FFIV, CRM. TTWO is just off its low but interesting, AVID looks great but is a pretty light volume stock.
China: BABA gapped over the 50 day MA. QIWI but in a solid move. SOHU looks good to move higher. CTRP and SINA could do the same along with ATHM and HTHT. BILI still looks nice.
Semiconductors: XLNX shot higher again. MCHP started but no volume. ENPH gapped on better trade. ON faded off the gap, but looks good if it rebounds. INTC trying to move off the 50 day MA. Still setting up.
FAANG: GOOG looks pretty decent but it is still in a trend lower form the 200 day SMA. AMZN gapped and rallied on almost average volume. Still a very iffy pattern. FB made it to the 10 day EMA but still mired in the downtrend. AAPL gapped upside after its straight drop, but it gave up its gains afterhours on the Trump comments. NFLX holding at its lower lows, NVDA gapped upside but for now, big deal.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +354.29 points (+1.46%) to close at 24640.24
Nasdaq
Stats: +142.87 points (+2.06%) to close at 7081.85
Volume: 2.03B (+111.9%)
Up Volume: 1.58B (+1.067B)
Down Volume: 424.41M (-13.15M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.49 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.18 to 1
New Highs: 19 (-1)
New Lows: 122 (+40)
S&P
Stats: +40.89 points (+1.55%) to close at 2673.45
NYSE Volume: 850.253M (+96.41%)
Up Volume: 617.132M (+472.549M)
Down Volume: 221.107M (-66.945M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.74 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.24 to 1
New Highs: 14 (+10)
New Lows: 146 (-26)
SENTIMENT
VIX: 18.90; -2.62
VXN: 26.02; -1.91
VXO: 20.39; -3.37
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.96; -0.16
Bulls and Bears:
A significant drop in bulls below 40.00 with bears moving back up to 19.8, the recent range top. Bears remain reluctant to surge but bulls are doing a lot of the work for them by dropping into the thirties. This is getting closer to bounce-worthy numbers. Not new bull run numbers, but bounce-worthy.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
42.9 versus 42.5 versus 50.5 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 61.8 versus 60.6 versus 59.0 versus 57.7 versus 60.1 versus 59.6 versus 57.7 versus 57.3 versus 54.9 versus 54.5 versus 54.9 versus 55.3 versus 52.4 versus 47.1 versus 47.6 versus 52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2 versus 49.5 versus 55.5 versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5 versus 41.9 versus 54.4 versus 66.00
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
19.0 versus 19.8 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 18.3 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.5 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.4 versus 17.6 versus 17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2 versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7 versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 3.059% versus 3.048%. Faded to test the move through the 50 day EMA.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 3.048% versus 3.065% versus 3.074% versus 3.056% versus 3.065% versus 3.116% versus 3.127% versus 3.147% versus 3.186% versus 3.239% versus 3.228% versus 3.222% versus 3.201% versus 3.22% versus 3.146% versus 3.149% versus 3.119% versus 3.089% versus 3.079% versus 3.126% versus 3.111% versus 3.1692% versus 3.20% versus 3.196% versus 3.1779% versus 3.209% versus 3.165% versus 3.158% versus 3.167% versus 3.146% versus 3.169 versus 3.206% versus 3.233% versus 3.189% versus 3.183% versus 3.061% versus 3.087% versus 3.061% versus 3.052% versus 3.048% versus 3.048% versus 3.085% versus 3.066% versus 3.068% versus 3.076% versus 3.057% versus 2.99% versus 3.00% versus 2.972% versus 2.963% versus 2.977% versus 2.937%
EUR/USD: 1.13325 versus 1.13380. Euro tried to rally, gave it all away.
Historical: 1.13380 versus 1.13829 versus 1.13818 versus 1.14484 versus 1.14172 versus 1.13308 versus 1.13264 versus 1.13124 versus 1.12348 versus 1.13475 versus 1.1364 versus 1.14329 versus 1.14228 versus 1.14090 versus 1.13881 versus 1.14019 versus 1.13394 versus 1.13455 versus 1.13760 versus 1.14042 versus 1.13757 versus 1.3972 versus 1.14682 versus 1.14626 versus 1.1538 versus 1.14556 versus 1.14961 versus 1.1578 versus 1.15906 versus 1.15592 versus 1.15901 versus 1.15324 versus 1.4966 versus 1.4916 versus 1.1598 versus 1.15164 versus 1.14762 versus 1.15517 versus 1.15774 versus 1.16038 versus 1.16357 versus 1.17501 versus 1.17658 versus 1.17476 versus 1.17486 versus 1.17772
USD/JPY: 113.510 versus 112.972. Nice surge higher versus the yen and off the 50 day MA.
Historical: Last below 109 in June 2018: 112.972 versus 113.007 versus 113.077 versus 112.617 versus 112.831 versus 113.585 versus 113.576. Was at 110 three weeks back.
Oil: 51.63, +1.21. Okay, rebounded, but two really sharp declines (Tuesday and Friday) in the past four sessions. Not much upside solace from this move.
Gold: 1222.40, -0.80. Holding tight at the 50 day EMA in a lateral move.
TUESDAY
Okay, the bounce started after the October low test, a test that saw a pretty much straight drop. MACD higher, bullish advisors below 40, tons of gloom. The mood was right.
Some decent patterns in the recent leadership, but outside of AXP, the moves were not lighting up the board.
Some other groups trying to assert themselves such as China, semiconductors, some software, perhaps some smaller drugs.
Again, we do not view this as a rally that results in new index highs. The conditions are right for a bounce. That bounce started, we picked up some well-situated stocks. We are looking at more from existing plays that we have not yet entered as well as some new plays that are showing very good action. Whoever moves first we are ready to pick up to play the bounce.
Have a great evening!
End part 1
_______________________________________________________
Member: tweet@investbilling.com
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.
Market Alert - Pre-Market
Futures vs FV: SP 26.24; DJ +236.05; NASDAQ +93.40
After a drop to the October closing lows to end last week, stocks are bouncing. Is it just an oversold hope move given the potential 're-test,' solid Black Friday sales, Italy populists softening toward EU proposals, Brexit progress (though many would not call it that)?
Yes. But then, solid retail sales is another reason for the Fed to stay the course even though, as noted over the weekend, sales are a lagging indicator as are jobs. Doesn't matter given the Fed's point of view.
Futures gapped higher and have more or less held their gains all morning. One of those gaps to a tight range that goes nowhere after the gap. Hope does spring eternal, but sellers are still there and the question is how aggressively they go after this move.
It well could be a move of several days given the test of the prior low and the oversold condition. The setup in the recent leaders (VZ, PG, etc.) is certainly solid, but those are not growth stocks. Those growth stocks could bounce off the market double bottom, and we are looking at the semiconductors as possible plays given they sold much earlier than the other stocks and put in their own bear market, now sporting some decent patterns.
What is for certain is the market overall remains in a selling bias overall. The big indices are working on bases, some groups are working well, most are not. We are going to focus on the working groups and the few that have set up some decent patterns.
After that you see how any rebound holds and if it fails at resistance, then you load up with some downside plays.
The News is quite limited.
Italy populists decide going alone would be more damaging than marginal concessions to the EU. Europe is happy about that.
Brexit deal supposedly a done deal. Not sure that is the case, but that is another reason they are happy in Europe.
M&A: Logitec wants to buy PLT
Upgrades: AEO, INTU
GM: Closing Ontario plant
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 3.057% vs 3.048%
EUR/USD: 1.1371 vs 1.1338
USD/JPY: 113.23 vs 112.972
Oil: 51.23, +0.81
Gold: 1226.70, +3.50
______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm
PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.
Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php
After a drop to the October closing lows to end last week, stocks are bouncing. Is it just an oversold hope move given the potential 're-test,' solid Black Friday sales, Italy populists softening toward EU proposals, Brexit progress (though many would not call it that)?
Yes. But then, solid retail sales is another reason for the Fed to stay the course even though, as noted over the weekend, sales are a lagging indicator as are jobs. Doesn't matter given the Fed's point of view.
Futures gapped higher and have more or less held their gains all morning. One of those gaps to a tight range that goes nowhere after the gap. Hope does spring eternal, but sellers are still there and the question is how aggressively they go after this move.
It well could be a move of several days given the test of the prior low and the oversold condition. The setup in the recent leaders (VZ, PG, etc.) is certainly solid, but those are not growth stocks. Those growth stocks could bounce off the market double bottom, and we are looking at the semiconductors as possible plays given they sold much earlier than the other stocks and put in their own bear market, now sporting some decent patterns.
What is for certain is the market overall remains in a selling bias overall. The big indices are working on bases, some groups are working well, most are not. We are going to focus on the working groups and the few that have set up some decent patterns.
After that you see how any rebound holds and if it fails at resistance, then you load up with some downside plays.
The News is quite limited.
Italy populists decide going alone would be more damaging than marginal concessions to the EU. Europe is happy about that.
Brexit deal supposedly a done deal. Not sure that is the case, but that is another reason they are happy in Europe.
M&A: Logitec wants to buy PLT
Upgrades: AEO, INTU
GM: Closing Ontario plant
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 3.057% vs 3.048%
EUR/USD: 1.1371 vs 1.1338
USD/JPY: 113.23 vs 112.972
Oil: 51.23, +0.81
Gold: 1226.70, +3.50
______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com
Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm
PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.
Customer Support: http://investmenthouse.com/contact_us.php
Saturday, November 24, 2018
The Daily, Part 1 of 2, 11-24-18
* * * *
11/24/2018 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
Thanksgiving Schedule:
Wednesday: Market summary, play tables
Thursday: Market closed, no report
Friday: Half session, Alerts
Weekend: Market stats, play table update, any decent plays we just cannot
resist for the start of the next week.
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
https://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- More status quo as stocks struggle to find bids but at least don't
sell off again.
- Indices are making the test of the October lows.
- Small caps, midcaps, SOX show relative strength Friday.
- Chips show a few interesting patterns after their own bear market.
- Stoic large cap leaders look about finished with their tests.
- The test of the October low is in, but if stocks bounce it is still
treated as a relief move.
- Oil implodes further, giving a lesson in oversold markets.
- New plays
After a modest back and forth Friday half session, stocks finished mostly
back not forth. In other words, they started softer, attempted a modest
rally, the slid back to close with mostly losses. Lower except for RUTX as
the small and midcaps, and even SOX, were relative strength leaders. In this
climate, however, that didn't mean a lot on the day, but it could mean
something the coming week.
SP500 -17.37, -0.66%
NASDAQ -33.27, -0.48%
DJ30 -178.74, -0.73%
SP400 -0.16%
RUTX 0.03%
SOX -0.04%
NASDAQ 100 -0.73%
The session left the indices changed little, still well down in their
selling, still hanging around the October lows. Again, not much on the day,
but perhaps something for the near future. Specifically, many were looking
for the test of those October lows, and they got the test, just no bounces
yet.
Growth saw some modest gains in a few key stocks. Not the FAANG stocks that
everyone still watches, but the newer breed. DATA, VRSN, MCHP, XLNX moved
up, but there was just not enough push on the half session for tech to
really take over. The relative strength and somewhat decent patterns in
chips (e.g. XLNX, ON, ENPH, AMAT, AMD) and telecom helped the small and
midcaps lead the market; again, something to watch for the coming week.
While there may be some stirrings emerging from the small and midcaps via
chips, telecom, and perhaps some biotechs and techs, the recent leaders in
food, drugs, personal products, utilities continued to test, but look very
good at near support. PG, LLY, MCD, VZ, PEP, KR, CMG If they are going to
continue their uptrends, this is the likely point they launch.
Thus, you have some growth with interesting action but not launching a
bounce, and the more stoic, basics stocks (food, drugs, personal care) set
up well to continue their uptrends. Positives for this week, and we will of
course look at many of the recent leaders testing support to pick up as they
bounce. Some of the chips as well as we have plays ready to enter on AMAT,
ENPH, MCHP and are already in XLNX and INTC.
As for Black Friday itself, MasterCard reports sales +2B from 2017 Black
Friday. Store traffic increases in some areas but others reporting the same
as 2017. It will be a strong year, but the retailers suffered another tough
session, and the entire weekend is counted as Black Friday so we will have
to see if the numbers hold up. Despite the stock market woes of late, I
feel they will: shopping habits, like the jobs report, are a lagging
indicator.
Oil: 50.42, -4.21. Oil was absolutely crushed Friday as the notion the
selling could not get worse was absolutely wrong. Oil is down 8 weeks
straight, from near $77 to $50, showing that an oversold market can indeed
become even more oversold.
Bonds: 3.048% vs 3.065% 10 year. Bonds are up off the lower low hit in
early November, rallying three weeks upside. Last week they broke through
the 50 day MA from below. This shows a bit of concern that was not there
before.
Okay, so some indices showed relative strength Friday and all of the indices
are more or less showing double bottoms at the October low. The full test
is here and there are some intriguing patterns as noted. There could
actually be a bounce, but of course it has to show it can do so.
If it does, we will play some of those intriguing patterns and we will play
those uptrending leaders that spent the past week or so testing their moves
higher.
As for the tech, chips, etc. that are in interesting patterns, if they break
higher we still have to view the move as a relief move versus a new reset
for the uptrend. Lots of damage was done, the leaders from the prior move
(e.g. FAANG and other big name leaders such as NVDA) may be just too damaged
to participate and help support a bounce. Thus, unless an entirely new crop
of growth leaders emerge, a bounce upside into yearend is likely just a
bounce upside into yearend. New highs would be unlikely.
Thus, we would play for that specific move higher and not try to convince
ourselves it is something more unless some seriously good new leadership
shows up. Whether that would be young guns in software, semiconductors (and
that sector has already gone through its own bear market) or elsewhere
remains to be seen. Heck, even homebuilders look better right now along
with airlines. Go figure with 5+% mortgage rates. At least airlines you
can understand with the collapse of oil -- bought my first sub-$2.00 gas in
years on Thanksgiving in Bastrop, Texas. THAT will help Christmas shopping
if nothing else does.
Anyway, the point is if there is a rebound from this oversold condition, you
play it as a rebound, and when it makes it to yearend or wherever and then
stalls, that is the time you play the downside.
Accordingly, for now we like the look of the more boring, stoic big names,
but if they make money while other areas are hemorrhaging, that is not so
boring. We also look at those areas of relative strength and pretty good
patterns, e.g. chips.
PLAYS:
This weekend I have let everyone off to scatter and celebrate with family.
So, I am going to list several stocks we are interested in picking up if
they can move, along with the entry point. Given the selloff to this point,
they are upside plays. We already have some chip plays ready to go as noted
(AMAT, MCHP), but there are some others of interest. Then there are the
stodgier stocks that have rallied well and used last week to test.
Large caps:
PEP: Entry: 116.61, JAN 18 2019 115.00c (54 delta), Target 121.91, 70+%
PG: Entry: 92.16, JAN 18 2019 90.00c (63 delta), Target 97.39, 80ish%
VZ: Entry: 59.02, JAN 18 2019 60.00c (40 delta), Target 63, 100+%
Chips:
ON: Entry: 18.96, Stock and/or JAN 18 2019 18.00c (61 delta), Target 21.45,
80% options
China:
BILI: Entry: 15.52, Stock and/or APR 18 2019 15.00c (59 delta), Target
19.41, 25% stock.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: -178.74 points (-0.73%) to close at 24285.95
Nasdaq
Stats: -33.27 points (-0.48%) to close at 6938.98
Volume: 958M (-48.49%)
Up Volume: 512.6M (-807.4M)
Down Volume: 437.56M (-64.84M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.18 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.88 to 1
New Highs: 20 (+9)
New Lows: 82 (-30)
S&P
Stats: -17.37 points (-0.66%) to close at 2632.56 NYSE Volume: 432.899M
(-44.12%)
Up Volume: 144.582M (-444.665M)
Down Volume: 288.052M (+109.811M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.24 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.83 to 1
New Highs: 4 (-13)
New Lows: 172 (+21)
SENTIMENT
VIX: 21.52; +0.72
VXN: 27.93; +0.97
VXO: 23.76; +1.28
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.12; +0.04
Bulls and Bears:
A significant drop in bulls below 40.00 with bears moving back up to 19.8,
the recent range top. Bears remain reluctant to surge but bulls are doing a
lot of the work for them by dropping into the thirties. This is getting
closer to bounce-worthy numbers. Not new bull run numbers, but
bounce-worthy.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
42.9 versus 42.5 versus 50.5 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 61.8 versus 60.6
versus 59.0 versus 57.7 versus 60.1 versus 59.6 versus 57.7 versus 57.3
versus 54.9 versus 54.5 versus 54.9 versus 55.3 versus 52.4 versus 47.1
versus 47.6 versus 52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1
versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2
versus 49.5 versus 55.5 versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5
versus 41.9 versus 54.4 versus 66.00
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
19.0 versus 19.8 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 18.3 versus 18.5 versus 18.6
versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.3
versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.5 versus 18.5 versus 18.6
versus 18.4 versus 17.6 versus 17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2
versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8
versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4
versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7
versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1
versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2
versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 3.048% versus 3.065%. Through the 50 day MA for now.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 3.065%
versus 3.074% versus 3.056% versus 3.065% versus 3.116% versus 3.127% versus
3.147% versus 3.186% versus 3.239% versus 3.228% versus 3.222% versus 3.201%
versus 3.22% versus 3.146% versus 3.149% versus 3.119% versus 3.089% versus
3.079% versus 3.126% versus 3.111% versus 3.1692% versus 3.20% versus 3.196%
versus 3.1779% versus 3.209% versus 3.165% versus 3.158% versus 3.167%
versus 3.146% versus 3.169 versus 3.206% versus 3.233% versus 3.189% versus
3.183% versus 3.061% versus 3.087% versus 3.061% versus 3.052% versus 3.048%
versus 3.048% versus 3.085% versus 3.066% versus 3.068% versus 3.076% versus
3.057% versus 2.99% versus 3.00% versus 2.972% versus 2.963% versus 2.977%
versus 2.937%
EUR/USD: 1.13380 versus 1.13829. Euro down hard Friday.
Historical: 1.13829 versus 1.13818 versus 1.14484 versus 1.14172 versus
1.13308 versus 1.13264 versus 1.13124 versus 1.12348 versus 1.13475 versus
1.1364 versus 1.14329 versus 1.14228 versus 1.14090 versus 1.13881 versus
1.14019 versus 1.13394 versus 1.13455 versus 1.13760 versus 1.14042 versus
1.13757 versus 1.3972 versus 1.14682 versus 1.14626 versus 1.1538 versus
1.14556 versus 1.14961 versus 1.1578 versus 1.15906 versus 1.15592 versus
1.15901 versus 1.15324 versus 1.4966 versus 1.4916 versus 1.1598 versus
1.15164 versus 1.14762 versus 1.15517 versus 1.15774 versus 1.16038 versus
1.16357 versus 1.17501 versus 1.17658 versus 1.17476 versus 1.17486 versus
1.17772
USD/JPY: 112.972 versus 113.007. Dollar holding at the 50 day MA.
Historical: Last below 109 in June 2018: 113.007 versus 113.077 versus
112.617 versus 112.831 versus 113.585 versus 113.576. Was at 110 three
weeks back.
Oil: 50.42, -4.21.
Gold: 1223.20, -4.80
End part 1 of 2
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
11/24/2018 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
Thanksgiving Schedule:
Wednesday: Market summary, play tables
Thursday: Market closed, no report
Friday: Half session, Alerts
Weekend: Market stats, play table update, any decent plays we just cannot
resist for the start of the next week.
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
https://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- More status quo as stocks struggle to find bids but at least don't
sell off again.
- Indices are making the test of the October lows.
- Small caps, midcaps, SOX show relative strength Friday.
- Chips show a few interesting patterns after their own bear market.
- Stoic large cap leaders look about finished with their tests.
- The test of the October low is in, but if stocks bounce it is still
treated as a relief move.
- Oil implodes further, giving a lesson in oversold markets.
- New plays
After a modest back and forth Friday half session, stocks finished mostly
back not forth. In other words, they started softer, attempted a modest
rally, the slid back to close with mostly losses. Lower except for RUTX as
the small and midcaps, and even SOX, were relative strength leaders. In this
climate, however, that didn't mean a lot on the day, but it could mean
something the coming week.
SP500 -17.37, -0.66%
NASDAQ -33.27, -0.48%
DJ30 -178.74, -0.73%
SP400 -0.16%
RUTX 0.03%
SOX -0.04%
NASDAQ 100 -0.73%
The session left the indices changed little, still well down in their
selling, still hanging around the October lows. Again, not much on the day,
but perhaps something for the near future. Specifically, many were looking
for the test of those October lows, and they got the test, just no bounces
yet.
Growth saw some modest gains in a few key stocks. Not the FAANG stocks that
everyone still watches, but the newer breed. DATA, VRSN, MCHP, XLNX moved
up, but there was just not enough push on the half session for tech to
really take over. The relative strength and somewhat decent patterns in
chips (e.g. XLNX, ON, ENPH, AMAT, AMD) and telecom helped the small and
midcaps lead the market; again, something to watch for the coming week.
While there may be some stirrings emerging from the small and midcaps via
chips, telecom, and perhaps some biotechs and techs, the recent leaders in
food, drugs, personal products, utilities continued to test, but look very
good at near support. PG, LLY, MCD, VZ, PEP, KR, CMG If they are going to
continue their uptrends, this is the likely point they launch.
Thus, you have some growth with interesting action but not launching a
bounce, and the more stoic, basics stocks (food, drugs, personal care) set
up well to continue their uptrends. Positives for this week, and we will of
course look at many of the recent leaders testing support to pick up as they
bounce. Some of the chips as well as we have plays ready to enter on AMAT,
ENPH, MCHP and are already in XLNX and INTC.
As for Black Friday itself, MasterCard reports sales +2B from 2017 Black
Friday. Store traffic increases in some areas but others reporting the same
as 2017. It will be a strong year, but the retailers suffered another tough
session, and the entire weekend is counted as Black Friday so we will have
to see if the numbers hold up. Despite the stock market woes of late, I
feel they will: shopping habits, like the jobs report, are a lagging
indicator.
Oil: 50.42, -4.21. Oil was absolutely crushed Friday as the notion the
selling could not get worse was absolutely wrong. Oil is down 8 weeks
straight, from near $77 to $50, showing that an oversold market can indeed
become even more oversold.
Bonds: 3.048% vs 3.065% 10 year. Bonds are up off the lower low hit in
early November, rallying three weeks upside. Last week they broke through
the 50 day MA from below. This shows a bit of concern that was not there
before.
Okay, so some indices showed relative strength Friday and all of the indices
are more or less showing double bottoms at the October low. The full test
is here and there are some intriguing patterns as noted. There could
actually be a bounce, but of course it has to show it can do so.
If it does, we will play some of those intriguing patterns and we will play
those uptrending leaders that spent the past week or so testing their moves
higher.
As for the tech, chips, etc. that are in interesting patterns, if they break
higher we still have to view the move as a relief move versus a new reset
for the uptrend. Lots of damage was done, the leaders from the prior move
(e.g. FAANG and other big name leaders such as NVDA) may be just too damaged
to participate and help support a bounce. Thus, unless an entirely new crop
of growth leaders emerge, a bounce upside into yearend is likely just a
bounce upside into yearend. New highs would be unlikely.
Thus, we would play for that specific move higher and not try to convince
ourselves it is something more unless some seriously good new leadership
shows up. Whether that would be young guns in software, semiconductors (and
that sector has already gone through its own bear market) or elsewhere
remains to be seen. Heck, even homebuilders look better right now along
with airlines. Go figure with 5+% mortgage rates. At least airlines you
can understand with the collapse of oil -- bought my first sub-$2.00 gas in
years on Thanksgiving in Bastrop, Texas. THAT will help Christmas shopping
if nothing else does.
Anyway, the point is if there is a rebound from this oversold condition, you
play it as a rebound, and when it makes it to yearend or wherever and then
stalls, that is the time you play the downside.
Accordingly, for now we like the look of the more boring, stoic big names,
but if they make money while other areas are hemorrhaging, that is not so
boring. We also look at those areas of relative strength and pretty good
patterns, e.g. chips.
PLAYS:
This weekend I have let everyone off to scatter and celebrate with family.
So, I am going to list several stocks we are interested in picking up if
they can move, along with the entry point. Given the selloff to this point,
they are upside plays. We already have some chip plays ready to go as noted
(AMAT, MCHP), but there are some others of interest. Then there are the
stodgier stocks that have rallied well and used last week to test.
Large caps:
PEP: Entry: 116.61, JAN 18 2019 115.00c (54 delta), Target 121.91, 70+%
PG: Entry: 92.16, JAN 18 2019 90.00c (63 delta), Target 97.39, 80ish%
VZ: Entry: 59.02, JAN 18 2019 60.00c (40 delta), Target 63, 100+%
Chips:
ON: Entry: 18.96, Stock and/or JAN 18 2019 18.00c (61 delta), Target 21.45,
80% options
China:
BILI: Entry: 15.52, Stock and/or APR 18 2019 15.00c (59 delta), Target
19.41, 25% stock.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: -178.74 points (-0.73%) to close at 24285.95
Nasdaq
Stats: -33.27 points (-0.48%) to close at 6938.98
Volume: 958M (-48.49%)
Up Volume: 512.6M (-807.4M)
Down Volume: 437.56M (-64.84M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.18 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.88 to 1
New Highs: 20 (+9)
New Lows: 82 (-30)
S&P
Stats: -17.37 points (-0.66%) to close at 2632.56 NYSE Volume: 432.899M
(-44.12%)
Up Volume: 144.582M (-444.665M)
Down Volume: 288.052M (+109.811M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.24 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.83 to 1
New Highs: 4 (-13)
New Lows: 172 (+21)
SENTIMENT
VIX: 21.52; +0.72
VXN: 27.93; +0.97
VXO: 23.76; +1.28
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.12; +0.04
Bulls and Bears:
A significant drop in bulls below 40.00 with bears moving back up to 19.8,
the recent range top. Bears remain reluctant to surge but bulls are doing a
lot of the work for them by dropping into the thirties. This is getting
closer to bounce-worthy numbers. Not new bull run numbers, but
bounce-worthy.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
42.9 versus 42.5 versus 50.5 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 61.8 versus 60.6
versus 59.0 versus 57.7 versus 60.1 versus 59.6 versus 57.7 versus 57.3
versus 54.9 versus 54.5 versus 54.9 versus 55.3 versus 52.4 versus 47.1
versus 47.6 versus 52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1
versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2
versus 49.5 versus 55.5 versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5
versus 41.9 versus 54.4 versus 66.00
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
19.0 versus 19.8 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 18.3 versus 18.5 versus 18.6
versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.3
versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.5 versus 18.5 versus 18.6
versus 18.4 versus 17.6 versus 17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2
versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8
versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4
versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7
versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1
versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2
versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 3.048% versus 3.065%. Through the 50 day MA for now.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 3.065%
versus 3.074% versus 3.056% versus 3.065% versus 3.116% versus 3.127% versus
3.147% versus 3.186% versus 3.239% versus 3.228% versus 3.222% versus 3.201%
versus 3.22% versus 3.146% versus 3.149% versus 3.119% versus 3.089% versus
3.079% versus 3.126% versus 3.111% versus 3.1692% versus 3.20% versus 3.196%
versus 3.1779% versus 3.209% versus 3.165% versus 3.158% versus 3.167%
versus 3.146% versus 3.169 versus 3.206% versus 3.233% versus 3.189% versus
3.183% versus 3.061% versus 3.087% versus 3.061% versus 3.052% versus 3.048%
versus 3.048% versus 3.085% versus 3.066% versus 3.068% versus 3.076% versus
3.057% versus 2.99% versus 3.00% versus 2.972% versus 2.963% versus 2.977%
versus 2.937%
EUR/USD: 1.13380 versus 1.13829. Euro down hard Friday.
Historical: 1.13829 versus 1.13818 versus 1.14484 versus 1.14172 versus
1.13308 versus 1.13264 versus 1.13124 versus 1.12348 versus 1.13475 versus
1.1364 versus 1.14329 versus 1.14228 versus 1.14090 versus 1.13881 versus
1.14019 versus 1.13394 versus 1.13455 versus 1.13760 versus 1.14042 versus
1.13757 versus 1.3972 versus 1.14682 versus 1.14626 versus 1.1538 versus
1.14556 versus 1.14961 versus 1.1578 versus 1.15906 versus 1.15592 versus
1.15901 versus 1.15324 versus 1.4966 versus 1.4916 versus 1.1598 versus
1.15164 versus 1.14762 versus 1.15517 versus 1.15774 versus 1.16038 versus
1.16357 versus 1.17501 versus 1.17658 versus 1.17476 versus 1.17486 versus
1.17772
USD/JPY: 112.972 versus 113.007. Dollar holding at the 50 day MA.
Historical: Last below 109 in June 2018: 113.007 versus 113.077 versus
112.617 versus 112.831 versus 113.585 versus 113.576. Was at 110 three
weeks back.
Oil: 50.42, -4.21.
Gold: 1223.20, -4.80
End part 1 of 2
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
The Daily, Part 1 of 2, 11-24-18
* * * *
11/24/2018 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
Thanksgiving Schedule:
Wednesday: Market summary, play tables
Thursday: Market closed, no report
Friday: Half session, Alerts
Weekend: Market stats, play table update, any decent plays we just cannot resist for the start of the next week.
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you can sign up at the following link:
https://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- More status quo as stocks struggle to find bids but at least don't sell off again.
- Indices are making the test of the October lows.
- Small caps, midcaps, SOX show relative strength Friday.
- Chips show a few interesting patterns after their own bear market.
- Stoic large cap leaders look about finished with their tests.
- The test of the October low is in, but if stocks bounce it is still treated as a relief move.
- Oil implodes further, giving a lesson in oversold markets.
- New plays
After a modest back and forth Friday half session, stocks finished mostly back not forth. In other words, they started softer, attempted a modest rally, the slid back to close with mostly losses. Lower except for RUTX as the small and midcaps, and even SOX, were relative strength leaders. In this climate, however, that didn't mean a lot on the day, but it could mean something the coming week.
SP500 -17.37, -0.66%
NASDAQ -33.27, -0.48%
DJ30 -178.74, -0.73%
SP400 -0.16%
RUTX 0.03%
SOX -0.04%
NASDAQ 100 -0.73%
The session left the indices changed little, still well down in their selling, still hanging around the October lows. Again, not much on the day, but perhaps something for the near future. Specifically, many were looking for the test of those October lows, and they got the test, just no bounces yet.
Growth saw some modest gains in a few key stocks. Not the FAANG stocks that everyone still watches, but the newer breed. DATA, VRSN, MCHP, XLNX moved up, but there was just not enough push on the half session for tech to really take over. The relative strength and somewhat decent patterns in chips (e.g. XLNX, ON, ENPH, AMAT, AMD) and telecom helped the small and midcaps lead the market; again, something to watch for the coming week.
While there may be some stirrings emerging from the small and midcaps via chips, telecom, and perhaps some biotechs and techs, the recent leaders in food, drugs, personal products, utilities continued to test, but look very good at near support. PG, LLY, MCD, VZ, PEP, KR, CMG If they are going to continue their uptrends, this is the likely point they launch.
Thus, you have some growth with interesting action but not launching a bounce, and the more stoic, basics stocks (food, drugs, personal care) set up well to continue their uptrends. Positives for this week, and we will of course look at many of the recent leaders testing support to pick up as they bounce. Some of the chips as well as we have plays ready to enter on AMAT, ENPH, MCHP and are already in XLNX and INTC.
As for Black Friday itself, MasterCard reports sales +2B from 2017 Black Friday. Store traffic increases in some areas but others reporting the same as 2017. It will be a strong year, but the retailers suffered another tough session, and the entire weekend is counted as Black Friday so we will have to see if the numbers hold up. Despite the stock market woes of late, I feel they will: shopping habits, like the jobs report, are a lagging indicator.
Oil: 50.42, -4.21. Oil was absolutely crushed Friday as the notion the selling could not get worse was absolutely wrong. Oil is down 8 weeks straight, from near $77 to $50, showing that an oversold market can indeed become even more oversold.
Bonds: 3.048% vs 3.065% 10 year. Bonds are up off the lower low hit in early November, rallying three weeks upside. Last week they broke through the 50 day MA from below. This shows a bit of concern that was not there before.
Okay, so some indices showed relative strength Friday and all of the indices are more or less showing double bottoms at the October low. The full test is here and there are some intriguing patterns as noted. There could actually be a bounce, but of course it has to show it can do so.
If it does, we will play some of those intriguing patterns and we will play those uptrending leaders that spent the past week or so testing their moves higher.
As for the tech, chips, etc. that are in interesting patterns, if they break higher we still have to view the move as a relief move versus a new reset for the uptrend. Lots of damage was done, the leaders from the prior move (e.g. FAANG and other big name leaders such as NVDA) may be just too damaged to participate and help support a bounce. Thus, unless an entirely new crop of growth leaders emerge, a bounce upside into yearend is likely just a bounce upside into yearend. New highs would be unlikely.
Thus, we would play for that specific move higher and not try to convince ourselves it is something more unless some seriously good new leadership shows up. Whether that would be young guns in software, semiconductors (and that sector has already gone through its own bear market) or elsewhere remains to be seen. Heck, even homebuilders look better right now along with airlines. Go figure with 5+% mortgage rates. At least airlines you can understand with the collapse of oil -- bought my first sub-$2.00 gas in years on Thanksgiving in Bastrop, Texas. THAT will help Christmas shopping if nothing else does.
Anyway, the point is if there is a rebound from this oversold condition, you play it as a rebound, and when it makes it to yearend or wherever and then stalls, that is the time you play the downside.
Accordingly, for now we like the look of the more boring, stoic big names, but if they make money while other areas are hemorrhaging, that is not so boring. We also look at those areas of relative strength and pretty good patterns, e.g. chips.
PLAYS:
This weekend I have let everyone off to scatter and celebrate with family. So, I am going to list several stocks we are interested in picking up if they can move, along with the entry point. Given the selloff to this point, they are upside plays. We already have some chip plays ready to go as noted (AMAT, MCHP), but there are some others of interest. Then there are the stodgier stocks that have rallied well and used last week to test.
Large caps:
PEP: Entry: 116.61, JAN 18 2019 115.00c (54 delta), Target 121.91, 70+%
PG: Entry: 92.16, JAN 18 2019 90.00c (63 delta), Target 97.39, 80ish%
VZ: Entry: 59.02, JAN 18 2019 60.00c (40 delta), Target 63, 100+%
Chips:
ON: Entry: 18.96, Stock and/or JAN 18 2019 18.00c (61 delta), Target 21.45, 80% options
China:
BILI: Entry: 15.52, Stock and/or APR 18 2019 15.00c (59 delta), Target 19.41, 25% stock.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: -178.74 points (-0.73%) to close at 24285.95
Nasdaq
Stats: -33.27 points (-0.48%) to close at 6938.98
Volume: 958M (-48.49%)
Up Volume: 512.6M (-807.4M)
Down Volume: 437.56M (-64.84M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.18 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.88 to 1
New Highs: 20 (+9)
New Lows: 82 (-30)
S&P
Stats: -17.37 points (-0.66%) to close at 2632.56
NYSE Volume: 432.899M (-44.12%)
Up Volume: 144.582M (-444.665M)
Down Volume: 288.052M (+109.811M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.24 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.83 to 1
New Highs: 4 (-13)
New Lows: 172 (+21)
SENTIMENT
VIX: 21.52; +0.72
VXN: 27.93; +0.97
VXO: 23.76; +1.28
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.12; +0.04
Bulls and Bears:
A significant drop in bulls below 40.00 with bears moving back up to 19.8, the recent range top. Bears remain reluctant to surge but bulls are doing a lot of the work for them by dropping into the thirties. This is getting closer to bounce-worthy numbers. Not new bull run numbers, but bounce-worthy.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
42.9 versus 42.5 versus 50.5 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 61.8 versus 60.6 versus 59.0 versus 57.7 versus 60.1 versus 59.6 versus 57.7 versus 57.3 versus 54.9 versus 54.5 versus 54.9 versus 55.3 versus 52.4 versus 47.1 versus 47.6 versus 52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2 versus 49.5 versus 55.5 versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5 versus 41.9 versus 54.4 versus 66.00
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
19.0 versus 19.8 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 18.3 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.5 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.4 versus 17.6 versus 17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2 versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7 versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 3.048% versus 3.065%. Through the 50 day MA for now.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 3.065% versus 3.074% versus 3.056% versus 3.065% versus 3.116% versus 3.127% versus 3.147% versus 3.186% versus 3.239% versus 3.228% versus 3.222% versus 3.201% versus 3.22% versus 3.146% versus 3.149% versus 3.119% versus 3.089% versus 3.079% versus 3.126% versus 3.111% versus 3.1692% versus 3.20% versus 3.196% versus 3.1779% versus 3.209% versus 3.165% versus 3.158% versus 3.167% versus 3.146% versus 3.169 versus 3.206% versus 3.233% versus 3.189% versus 3.183% versus 3.061% versus 3.087% versus 3.061% versus 3.052% versus 3.048% versus 3.048% versus 3.085% versus 3.066% versus 3.068% versus 3.076% versus 3.057% versus 2.99% versus 3.00% versus 2.972% versus 2.963% versus 2.977% versus 2.937%
EUR/USD: 1.13380 versus 1.13829. Euro down hard Friday.
Historical: 1.13829 versus 1.13818 versus 1.14484 versus 1.14172 versus 1.13308 versus 1.13264 versus 1.13124 versus 1.12348 versus 1.13475 versus 1.1364 versus 1.14329 versus 1.14228 versus 1.14090 versus 1.13881 versus 1.14019 versus 1.13394 versus 1.13455 versus 1.13760 versus 1.14042 versus 1.13757 versus 1.3972 versus 1.14682 versus 1.14626 versus 1.1538 versus 1.14556 versus 1.14961 versus 1.1578 versus 1.15906 versus 1.15592 versus 1.15901 versus 1.15324 versus 1.4966 versus 1.4916 versus 1.1598 versus 1.15164 versus 1.14762 versus 1.15517 versus 1.15774 versus 1.16038 versus 1.16357 versus 1.17501 versus 1.17658 versus 1.17476 versus 1.17486 versus 1.17772
USD/JPY: 112.972 versus 113.007. Dollar holding at the 50 day MA.
Historical: Last below 109 in June 2018: 113.007 versus 113.077 versus 112.617 versus 112.831 versus 113.585 versus 113.576. Was at 110 three weeks back.
Oil: 50.42, -4.21.
Gold: 1223.20, -4.80
End part 1 of 2
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11/24/2018 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
Thanksgiving Schedule:
Wednesday: Market summary, play tables
Thursday: Market closed, no report
Friday: Half session, Alerts
Weekend: Market stats, play table update, any decent plays we just cannot resist for the start of the next week.
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you can sign up at the following link:
https://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- More status quo as stocks struggle to find bids but at least don't sell off again.
- Indices are making the test of the October lows.
- Small caps, midcaps, SOX show relative strength Friday.
- Chips show a few interesting patterns after their own bear market.
- Stoic large cap leaders look about finished with their tests.
- The test of the October low is in, but if stocks bounce it is still treated as a relief move.
- Oil implodes further, giving a lesson in oversold markets.
- New plays
After a modest back and forth Friday half session, stocks finished mostly back not forth. In other words, they started softer, attempted a modest rally, the slid back to close with mostly losses. Lower except for RUTX as the small and midcaps, and even SOX, were relative strength leaders. In this climate, however, that didn't mean a lot on the day, but it could mean something the coming week.
SP500 -17.37, -0.66%
NASDAQ -33.27, -0.48%
DJ30 -178.74, -0.73%
SP400 -0.16%
RUTX 0.03%
SOX -0.04%
NASDAQ 100 -0.73%
The session left the indices changed little, still well down in their selling, still hanging around the October lows. Again, not much on the day, but perhaps something for the near future. Specifically, many were looking for the test of those October lows, and they got the test, just no bounces yet.
Growth saw some modest gains in a few key stocks. Not the FAANG stocks that everyone still watches, but the newer breed. DATA, VRSN, MCHP, XLNX moved up, but there was just not enough push on the half session for tech to really take over. The relative strength and somewhat decent patterns in chips (e.g. XLNX, ON, ENPH, AMAT, AMD) and telecom helped the small and midcaps lead the market; again, something to watch for the coming week.
While there may be some stirrings emerging from the small and midcaps via chips, telecom, and perhaps some biotechs and techs, the recent leaders in food, drugs, personal products, utilities continued to test, but look very good at near support. PG, LLY, MCD, VZ, PEP, KR, CMG If they are going to continue their uptrends, this is the likely point they launch.
Thus, you have some growth with interesting action but not launching a bounce, and the more stoic, basics stocks (food, drugs, personal care) set up well to continue their uptrends. Positives for this week, and we will of course look at many of the recent leaders testing support to pick up as they bounce. Some of the chips as well as we have plays ready to enter on AMAT, ENPH, MCHP and are already in XLNX and INTC.
As for Black Friday itself, MasterCard reports sales +2B from 2017 Black Friday. Store traffic increases in some areas but others reporting the same as 2017. It will be a strong year, but the retailers suffered another tough session, and the entire weekend is counted as Black Friday so we will have to see if the numbers hold up. Despite the stock market woes of late, I feel they will: shopping habits, like the jobs report, are a lagging indicator.
Oil: 50.42, -4.21. Oil was absolutely crushed Friday as the notion the selling could not get worse was absolutely wrong. Oil is down 8 weeks straight, from near $77 to $50, showing that an oversold market can indeed become even more oversold.
Bonds: 3.048% vs 3.065% 10 year. Bonds are up off the lower low hit in early November, rallying three weeks upside. Last week they broke through the 50 day MA from below. This shows a bit of concern that was not there before.
Okay, so some indices showed relative strength Friday and all of the indices are more or less showing double bottoms at the October low. The full test is here and there are some intriguing patterns as noted. There could actually be a bounce, but of course it has to show it can do so.
If it does, we will play some of those intriguing patterns and we will play those uptrending leaders that spent the past week or so testing their moves higher.
As for the tech, chips, etc. that are in interesting patterns, if they break higher we still have to view the move as a relief move versus a new reset for the uptrend. Lots of damage was done, the leaders from the prior move (e.g. FAANG and other big name leaders such as NVDA) may be just too damaged to participate and help support a bounce. Thus, unless an entirely new crop of growth leaders emerge, a bounce upside into yearend is likely just a bounce upside into yearend. New highs would be unlikely.
Thus, we would play for that specific move higher and not try to convince ourselves it is something more unless some seriously good new leadership shows up. Whether that would be young guns in software, semiconductors (and that sector has already gone through its own bear market) or elsewhere remains to be seen. Heck, even homebuilders look better right now along with airlines. Go figure with 5+% mortgage rates. At least airlines you can understand with the collapse of oil -- bought my first sub-$2.00 gas in years on Thanksgiving in Bastrop, Texas. THAT will help Christmas shopping if nothing else does.
Anyway, the point is if there is a rebound from this oversold condition, you play it as a rebound, and when it makes it to yearend or wherever and then stalls, that is the time you play the downside.
Accordingly, for now we like the look of the more boring, stoic big names, but if they make money while other areas are hemorrhaging, that is not so boring. We also look at those areas of relative strength and pretty good patterns, e.g. chips.
PLAYS:
This weekend I have let everyone off to scatter and celebrate with family. So, I am going to list several stocks we are interested in picking up if they can move, along with the entry point. Given the selloff to this point, they are upside plays. We already have some chip plays ready to go as noted (AMAT, MCHP), but there are some others of interest. Then there are the stodgier stocks that have rallied well and used last week to test.
Large caps:
PEP: Entry: 116.61, JAN 18 2019 115.00c (54 delta), Target 121.91, 70+%
PG: Entry: 92.16, JAN 18 2019 90.00c (63 delta), Target 97.39, 80ish%
VZ: Entry: 59.02, JAN 18 2019 60.00c (40 delta), Target 63, 100+%
Chips:
ON: Entry: 18.96, Stock and/or JAN 18 2019 18.00c (61 delta), Target 21.45, 80% options
China:
BILI: Entry: 15.52, Stock and/or APR 18 2019 15.00c (59 delta), Target 19.41, 25% stock.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: -178.74 points (-0.73%) to close at 24285.95
Nasdaq
Stats: -33.27 points (-0.48%) to close at 6938.98
Volume: 958M (-48.49%)
Up Volume: 512.6M (-807.4M)
Down Volume: 437.56M (-64.84M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.18 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.88 to 1
New Highs: 20 (+9)
New Lows: 82 (-30)
S&P
Stats: -17.37 points (-0.66%) to close at 2632.56
NYSE Volume: 432.899M (-44.12%)
Up Volume: 144.582M (-444.665M)
Down Volume: 288.052M (+109.811M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.24 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.83 to 1
New Highs: 4 (-13)
New Lows: 172 (+21)
SENTIMENT
VIX: 21.52; +0.72
VXN: 27.93; +0.97
VXO: 23.76; +1.28
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.12; +0.04
Bulls and Bears:
A significant drop in bulls below 40.00 with bears moving back up to 19.8, the recent range top. Bears remain reluctant to surge but bulls are doing a lot of the work for them by dropping into the thirties. This is getting closer to bounce-worthy numbers. Not new bull run numbers, but bounce-worthy.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
42.9 versus 42.5 versus 50.5 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 61.8 versus 60.6 versus 59.0 versus 57.7 versus 60.1 versus 59.6 versus 57.7 versus 57.3 versus 54.9 versus 54.5 versus 54.9 versus 55.3 versus 52.4 versus 47.1 versus 47.6 versus 52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2 versus 49.5 versus 55.5 versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5 versus 41.9 versus 54.4 versus 66.00
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
19.0 versus 19.8 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 18.3 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.5 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.4 versus 17.6 versus 17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2 versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7 versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 3.048% versus 3.065%. Through the 50 day MA for now.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 3.065% versus 3.074% versus 3.056% versus 3.065% versus 3.116% versus 3.127% versus 3.147% versus 3.186% versus 3.239% versus 3.228% versus 3.222% versus 3.201% versus 3.22% versus 3.146% versus 3.149% versus 3.119% versus 3.089% versus 3.079% versus 3.126% versus 3.111% versus 3.1692% versus 3.20% versus 3.196% versus 3.1779% versus 3.209% versus 3.165% versus 3.158% versus 3.167% versus 3.146% versus 3.169 versus 3.206% versus 3.233% versus 3.189% versus 3.183% versus 3.061% versus 3.087% versus 3.061% versus 3.052% versus 3.048% versus 3.048% versus 3.085% versus 3.066% versus 3.068% versus 3.076% versus 3.057% versus 2.99% versus 3.00% versus 2.972% versus 2.963% versus 2.977% versus 2.937%
EUR/USD: 1.13380 versus 1.13829. Euro down hard Friday.
Historical: 1.13829 versus 1.13818 versus 1.14484 versus 1.14172 versus 1.13308 versus 1.13264 versus 1.13124 versus 1.12348 versus 1.13475 versus 1.1364 versus 1.14329 versus 1.14228 versus 1.14090 versus 1.13881 versus 1.14019 versus 1.13394 versus 1.13455 versus 1.13760 versus 1.14042 versus 1.13757 versus 1.3972 versus 1.14682 versus 1.14626 versus 1.1538 versus 1.14556 versus 1.14961 versus 1.1578 versus 1.15906 versus 1.15592 versus 1.15901 versus 1.15324 versus 1.4966 versus 1.4916 versus 1.1598 versus 1.15164 versus 1.14762 versus 1.15517 versus 1.15774 versus 1.16038 versus 1.16357 versus 1.17501 versus 1.17658 versus 1.17476 versus 1.17486 versus 1.17772
USD/JPY: 112.972 versus 113.007. Dollar holding at the 50 day MA.
Historical: Last below 109 in June 2018: 113.007 versus 113.077 versus 112.617 versus 112.831 versus 113.585 versus 113.576. Was at 110 three weeks back.
Oil: 50.42, -4.21.
Gold: 1223.20, -4.80
End part 1 of 2
_______________________________________________________
Member: tweet@investbilling.com
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
PLEASE DO NOT REPLY TO THIS EMAIL. USE THE CONTACT US PAGE ON OUR WEBSITE.
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