Sunday, August 29, 2010

Stocks Again Hold at Support, Rally

SUMMARY:
- Stocks get some good and some bad, trade all over the map, but then post strong rallies.
- Q2 GDP not as bad as expected: when worse is better
- Michigan sentiment disappoints along with Bernanke as he fails to provide any concrete action.
- Stocks again swallow bad news, hold at support, rally.
- Stocks set for a bounce in the range. How far depends upon whether laggard sectors play a bit of catch up.
- A passel more economic data to come, capped by the jobs report. Can the market handle the truth again, i.e. the economy is not that great right now?

Stocks overcome the news, hold support and rally.

It took a while on Friday, but the market got its feet underneath it and was able to rally. It posted strong gains across the board, but it was not easy. The GLD numbers came in before the open, and they were a bit better than expected at 1.6%. That was better than the 1.4% anticipated, but well off the 2.4% in the first iteration of the Q2 number. Futures were up in a bizarre case of "lower is better" since it was not as bad as thought. The market opened higher, but then it sold off. It started back up, but then two things happened: Michigan Sentiment and Ben Bernanke's speech.

Michigan Sentiment came out almost a half hour into the open, and it showed a 68.9 reading versus the 70 expected. That was even below the 69.6 originally reported, and that sent the market into a tail spin. It sold off from gains to negative. Then Ben Bernanke's speech at the Jackson Hole Conference was put on top of that. He did not offer anything concrete. He said the Fed stood ready to do whatever it took in the event that it was needed. Investors thought it was needed now. That coupled with the Michigan Sentiment pushed stocks sharply lower.

It was a zigzag all morning, but the important thing was SP500 held 1040. That is coincident with the May and June lows. It held that level for the fourth time this week, and this time there was a sharp upside break. Short covering ahead of the weekend? Perhaps, but there was volume behind the move as well. The stock market has been showing the ability to hold support despite bad news. Friday was another day without very good news. There was a continuing M&A battle over IPAR between HP and DELL. That has some people excited, but overall the theme is that the economies of US and Europe are simply not that strong. That was weighing down the market.

US came out with relatively weak data all week, but that did not sink the indices below support; they are still in their range. When it was apparent that was not going to happen on Friday, they shot to the upside, and there was good leadership along the way with some of the stocks I talked about (such as the China stocks). Others were picking up nicely as well. Those leaders we were looking at to pull some weight actually started to do so. Not all of them, however. The financials need to come to the show, but the market has been able to rally without them at least trade in the range. If it is going to break out of the range, it will need their support along with the semiconductors. They have been a drag on the technology side of the equation.

On Friday the big news was a very choppy morning, back and forth trade. It looked like another selloff was in progress, only to hold support and reverse nicely. When I say nicely, I am talking about very solid gains. NASDAQ +1.6%, Dow +1.6%, SP500 +1.6%, SOX +2%, SP600 +2.66% that was huge. NASDAQ 100 was only up 1.3% versus 1.6% on the overall NASDAQ; that shows that the small caps were in the lead. What have I said about small caps and how important they are for determining what will happen with the future of the economy? We are seeing a bit of it. They were relative strength leaders all week. On the downside days they were not down as far, and on the upside days they posted better gains. That is a good sign.

The market is swallowing bad news and staying in its range. The market is a discounter of future corporate earnings, and earnings are tied to the economy. Small caps are very much tied to the US economy. If they start to break sharply higher and lead the market even, dare I say, break out later on that bodes well for the US economy. For now, we got the bounce we were looking for, and I am happy to take it. We already have great positions in place, and we will be looking to take more next week.


OTHER MARKETS

Dollar. The upside move and the ability to hold support over the past several sessions had stymied the moves we had seen in the fear sectors. The DXY0 was struggling on Thursday, and it struggled a bit more on Friday. There was no selloff (1.2734 Euro versus 1.2720 Thursday). It was peeling back to test. It is not the trouble, but it just made a good reversal from its downtrend. It tested that reversal, rallied again, and now it is putting in another flag pattern at the 50 day EMA. There is still plenty of room for it to run up to the key resistance level just below 85 on the DXY0. It has not changed anything; there was just no need to rush into the dollar on Thursday and Friday. That was particularly true on Friday because stocks were performing better and the fear level died down as the session went on. Perhaps investors thought helicopter Ben would not do anything to stop the Fed stimulus. He stands ready to do something no one knows exactly what in the event things worsen in the US economy.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg


Bonds. The strongest indicator of all on Friday was the bond market. Wednesday I noted the gap and reversal, and we took a big chunk of our TLT gain off the table (somewhere around 250% on the options). Thursday it tried to move up again on a little fear, but on Friday there was no fear. The bond market sold off sharply (US 10 year 2.64% versus 2.48% Thursday). We took the rest of our TLT (what little we had) off the table, banking that gain. Bonds as a fear play suddenly lost the fear aspect. That is a key piece of the puzzle I am looking at. The stock market is holding the bottom of its trading range, and bonds have been shooting higher as the stock market sold off into the bottom of its range.

On the SP500, it is selling in August while the TLT has been rising in August. Then, suddenly, a massive reversal. Bonds all of a sudden do not look so great. They will fill the gap from mid August, but the question is whether they break below the June and July peaks. We sold out. Bonds are not having the fear money put into them. Remember, the bonds market is a very good indicator of the economic future. They have been racing higher, and that had me very concerned about what was going on. That was mitigated somewhat by what the stock market was doing. If bonds sell off and interest rates rise, even if the Fed says it will help out, you can read that to mean bond traders are perhaps seeing improving economics. It could also be seeing more inflation down the road.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tlt.jpeg


Gold. It was not a banner day for gold either. Gold gapped higher Thursday and sold off. It rallied again to just below the Thursday peak, and faded back to close just slightly higher on the session ($1,239.80, +2.00). Whichever market you look at, it was not a big day for gold. It has bounced up to this prior peak, but it is stalling below that level. Indeed, take a look at the GLD and its Fibonacci retracement of the selloff from June into early August. It has bounced up to the 78% Fibonacci retracement, and that is where the bulk of the last trade has been. It is having a hard time moving through that level. This shows that the recovery for that high means there is not that much downside momentum. When there is a recovery to the 78%, start looking for a roll back over if it cannot break through. If it forms a double top here, that is almost a sure sign that gold will be heading lower.

The interesting feature about the action on Friday was that gold was not rising higher on fears of inflation. Remember, bonds could have been selling because of a fear of inflation if the Fed was going to be very loose with money. They weren't they were just selling from what it looks like, and that may be on economic improvement. Gold is not spiking through the moon; it is struggling at the 78% Fibonacci retracement. It bears watching, and indeed we have a GLD play to the downside because it is at the 78% Fibonacci retracement. We could get a nice fall down to these lows from July and August, and then maybe a bounce higher before a double top at the 78% retracement sends it lower toward the July low. We will have to see how it develops, but this looks like a top at least an interim top.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg


Oil. If the stock market was doing better because it is factoring in positives with respect to the economy, you would expect oil to be up. That is precisely what happened. After a very nasty three-week selloff, oil was churning back to the upside ($75.17, +1.81). That is almost a 2.5% move on the session. It held this interim support this week and bounced. Again, if there is a belief that the economy is going to improve, one would expect oil to improve and it is. Fill up your gas tanks before oil rallies back up over $80 and they jack the price back up.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg


TECHNICAL SUMMARY

INTERNALS

Volume. Volume was up 20% on NASDAQ to 2.1B. Not a blowout session at all, but it was good to see volume rise on an upside day. At 1.1B, volume on the NYSE was not a barn burner, but it made it up to average. I will not complain about that. A 4% rise is a 4% rise on a summer Friday. Think about how many Fridays have been deathly quiet in the market.

Breadth. Breadth was relatively outstanding, but that is how it has been. It is big either way the market goes. 4.5:1 on the NASDAQ, and 6.6:1 on the NYSE. The small caps were exploding into the lead and they were doing the same on NASDAQ. Big upside volume, big outsized breadth to the upside. That is exactly what you want to see if you are worried about the economy, i.e., the small caps leading the charge to the upside.


CHARTS

SP500. The key was the hold at 1040. It was a very volatile morning; it whipsawed back and forth. You had a hang tough and watch the leaders. We were watching the leaders early and looking at stocks such as NTES those kind of stocks that have been holding up well during the selling. They were holding the line and moving higher in the morning. By the end of the day, SP500 posted a solid break, finally, off of the May and June lows. After four days of testing, it broke sharply higher. It did not quite fill the gap down from Tuesday, and next week it will be interesting when SP500 gets up to the May 6th flash crash low at 1065. It is sitting right below it at 1064. I think we have the momentum on our side up to these interim peaks at a minimum. It may make it back up to the bottom of the January peak and the June peak as well. Now it would be the July/August peak from the last time SP500 visited that level.

NASDAQ. Same kind of action on the NASDAQ. It undercut the February low again, touched down where it touched bottom on Wednesday and rallied back up for a gain. It, too, has not filled the gap. It has much fun to come, but we are seeing good action in MACD. There is a higher high when price was below the June peak, and that is a positive divergence. There is a little bit of momentum; maybe it will make it up there. It may not get that far and it only get to the 200 day EMA, but I still anticipate a good move here based upon the indices swallowing a lot of bad news and hanging onto support.

SP600. SP600 held the July low. Remember, it never broke its February low. It has held the July low, and it still has the head and shoulders look to it, but it was a big move. Lots of small caps moving well a 2.6% move is nothing to sneeze at but it has a lot of resistance. It has the May 6th flash crash, it has the June low (it is just at that point), and then it has the January peak to deal with. Not to mention the March, June, July, and August peaks. It is never easy digging out of a hole, and that is what has to happen when stocks or indices sell off. It happened in July. It was not a straight shot, and it never is. Now we see what kind of guts the small caps have as they move higher. Is it a harbinger of better economic times to come, or is it just a technical bounce in the range? I will be more than happy with a technical bounce in the range because that is what I have been looking for all week.

SOX. SOX broke to a new low on this selloff intraday, and then reversed to close positive. It did not scare anyone with this move. The most interesting thing is it held the February low and reversed off of that after toying with it all week. Still have to get above the Tuesday gap, and it has to get back up to this gap point from mid August. There is a lot of resistance overhead. When it gets to that gap point, it will struggle a bit. What the SOX does at the August gap down point will tell us a lot from the tech side of the equation whether the bounce will have any stamina. If it blows through there, that is a very good indication that the bounce for NASDAQ and SP500 is going to go into the upper reaches of the trading range. If it stalls there, this may be a short-lived bounce. They might just make it up to mid range and then roll back over. It will be a key index to watch in order to determine just how strong the other indices are.


LEADERSHIP

Financial. Financials have not participated in the rally. They are not giving the kind of leadership that is going to take the NYSE indices higher or lower; they are tagging along. We will see how they respond as the market bounces. JPM was up on Friday on good volume, perhaps putting in a double bottom attempt here. At least that will give it a foot higher, and maybe it can break through that February low and move up toward the June and July peaks. We will see. GS was still lagging. It was lagging on Friday. Even though the market was up, it was down. We sold out of our positions and it just continued lower on Friday. It is a good thing we got out, but I am watching it. It has a ragged ABCD pattern, and we will see where (and if) it finds bottom and can rally once more. There are not a lot of good moves in financials. WFC was up, but it is in an atrocious pattern. We will have to see how this plays out. Financials will have to participate, or the bounce will never make it out of the trading range.

Semiconductors. AMAT is trying to mass for a bounce, but it is in a continuing downtrend that the 10 day EMA is holding in check. It does not look like it will be contributing much to the upside anytime soon. XLNX is not in much better shape. It is trying to put in a low at the prior bottom in August, but it still does not look very good itself. XLNX is not in any position to post a strong rally, although it could bounce. I guess any stock could bounce. Many other semiconductors show the same kind of patterns: The sharp selloff and not in a good pattern. NVLS has a trading range at least, and it is holding at support. It had that big selloff Friday and reversal on volume, so buyers stepped in again as they did back in May and June. We will see if it can bounce it back up. Some semiconductors look better than others, of course. BRCM held its support and bounced off the bottom of the support range on strong volume. Support is typically a range, remember. There are lows, and then a second set of lows. It has used both of them, and now it looks like it will try to bounce back up in its trading range. Semiconductors are very mixed, but overall are still very negative in their patterns.

Industrials. Industrials improved on the day, but they had a rough week. CAT gapped lower on Tuesday, but it was not able to recover much of that move. Still struggling. JOYG sold to the 200 day EMA, undercut it on Thursday, but then it managed to reverse on Friday. Still not a great pattern. There is a double top below the April peak, so it is not a picture of strength, although it looks like it will try to bounce. DE held a key level at the March and April peaks, and it reversed and managed to bounce on Friday.

China. BIDU started to bounce back up on a bit better volume on Friday. NTES gapped higher, tested, and continued upside. No volume, but it is in a nice pattern. CAGC started to move up. Low volume, and it looks like it might be ready to bounce this coming week.

Technology. AAPL did not participate sharply in the move, but it did sell off to a new low on the selling and reversed to hold the base. Perhaps we see a trade higher. An important stock for NASDAQ to continue higher. AKAM is trading near the top of its range and is still in decent shape. FFIV is all right, but it is looking toppy.

Retail. Retail is widely mixed, with some stocks sporting decent action such as NTES but that is not the rule. There has been improvement over the week, however, such as in COST. There was a big volume move to the upside, and now a nice test. It may make an interesting entry point, although there is not a tremendous amount of upside if you look at these prices and the scale of it. There is some retail improving. If you have improvement in some technology, improvement in some retail, and then the industrials can pick back up, then there is a decent move under way. It does not hurt that the China stocks are moving as well. We might be able to get some momentum in the upside on this rally. Again, I am not anticipating a breakout unless is there a lot more improvement in leadership, financials, and semiconductors. Right now we are looking for a trade up in the range versus a breakout. If it comes, that is great. If not, we will make money on the move to the upside.


THE MARKET

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX. The VIX dove 10% on Friday. A big, strong move by the stock market, but it was really a volatile session. It spiked early and reversed as the market rallied. What does this mean? Remember, look how the VIX did not ramp up during the selling. It basically held the prior peaks, and that tells you there is not the kind of fear in the market that will lead to a major selloff. Some would say that means there will not be any upside movement, but that is incorrect. The VIX can go low for a long time, yet the market rallies and rallies. Now the VIX is trading in a trading range just as the index has been trading in a trading range. This is a big move. It is a move that could mean we have a break in volatility, but we have to watch when it gets down to the levels from July and August. If the stock market stalls at that level, we will start watching to see if the stock market stalls when volatility gets down to that level. That is exactly where it stalled before, and the markets are in a trading range until they prove otherwise. That is what volatility is telling us right now.

VIX: 24.45; -2.92
VXN: 26.31; -2.57
VXO: 24.91; -2.47

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.8; -0.08

Bulls versus Bears:

Bulls still outnumber bears, but they are merging again for another possible crossover. With the market set to bounce higher in its range, however, it looks as if a second crossover this year is not going to happen, at least not yet.

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 33.3% versus 36.7%. Continuing the decline and indeed falling below the 35% considered a bullish indicator. This bolsters the upside run in the range. Bulls and bears are starting to merge again though no crossover yet. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 31.2% versus 31.1%. Barely budged after the big move from 27% the prior week. Sure would have liked more bears rising to meet the falling bulls for another crossover; that would be powerful, but we will take this. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


NASDAQ

Stats: +34.94 points (+1.65%) to close at 2153.63
Volume: 2.126B (+20.21%)

Up Volume: 1.978B (+1.703B)
Down Volume: 174.925M (-1.345B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 4.55 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.03 to 1

New Highs: 24 (+7)
New Lows: 88 (-10)

NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg


SP500/NYSE

Stats: +17.37 points (+1.66%) to close at 1064.59
NYSE Volume: 1.09B (+4.33%)

Up Volume: 1.005B (+769.248M)
Down Volume: 79.472M (-713.58M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 6.61 to 1. The Breadth suggests more than just short covering taking place.
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.86 to 1

New Highs: 219 (+29)
New Lows: 73 (+38)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg


DJ30

Stats: +164.84 points (+1.65%) to close at 10150.65
Volume DJ30: 208M shares Friday versus 176M shares Thursday. Some good upside volume moving in here as well.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg


MONDAY

The coming week is chock full of economic data. We got through some important pieces of data this week that were not good: Existing home sales, new home sales, GLD, and Sentiment. They were not that good, but the market managed to swallow the bad news and rally. It will have another chance to do that this week. There is personal income and spending on Monday. Case-Shiller and the Chicago PMI come in on Tuesday, along with the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. Then we will also get the minutes of the last FOMC meeting.

That is a hell of a start to the week, but it does not slow down. Wednesday we have ADP because it is the first week of September , and that means the jobs report will be on Friday. But it doesn't stop with ADP or the ISM index. There are initial jobless claims on Thursday. There is productivity, factory orders, pending home sales, and then Friday that is all a lead-in to the non-farm payrolls. Non-farm payrolls are expected to come in at -118K. A bit better than the prior month, but that is still pathetic.

With all this data, what is the market going to do? It depends on how it takes it but, technically, I like what I see with respect to the stock market particularly the SP500 and the SP600. Maybe Friday was some short covering; we will see. This market showed a lot of tenacity at this important level, whether it was SP500, NASDAQ, or SP600. I think we could get a decent bounce. It is a matter of gradation. I would love to see it make it back up to the June and August peaks. Maybe it will only make it to the interim peak, but we will just watch it. We have some great positions in place, and we will let them bounce. If it runs out of gas, we will take some money off the table.

When it gets mid-range, we will have pretty good coin built into some of our positions. It will not be my favorite target, but if it stalls out, we can take some gain off the table and then see if it continues to break higher toward the top of the range. That is what happened in past bounces. It will stall, test, and then it just works its way back to the upside. If we get a good, sharp move early in the week that carries us to that interim level, and then we anticipate it testing and moving higher. If it struggles to get up to that midpoint, then it may not make it beyond that. If we get better economic data, Katie bar the door, because we may get a serious move to the upside that has serious strength behind it.

We are going to keep looking for upside plays. We took good positions on Friday, and we will be looking for more next week. Maybe things will change; maybe it will break. This could be a false hold, but I do not think so. We will be ready with downside plays for bounces. As the week progresses, and the market moves up, there will be some stocks ripe for a bounce some that maybe broke below their ranges and have sold off and are coming back up to test. Maybe some semiconductors since the SOX and the SMH are below their ranges. If the stocks rally back up to those ranges and stall, then they could be ripe for the downside. That could coincide with the SP500 moving to the mid range or the next interim level of resistance and stalling. Then we would get downside. We have to be ready for that because we are range trading. Sometimes the market goes all the way to the top of the range and sometimes it does not.

Some confirmation would be nice early next week, but what makes me believe it will go higher is the tenacity at that prior low the ability to overcome bad news and still hold support and then to start to rally. That is why we will look for more upside plays from stocks that have made pullbacks and are still in position to move CAGC, for instance, is in good position to move higher. We will look for other stocks similarly situated to rally upside and make us money, and nice, strong patterns and support levels to bounce them up into the tops of their range. Have an excellent weekend. Remember next week is the employment week, and then we have a three-day weekend for Labor Day after that. Start factoring that in to your trading equation.


Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2118.69

Resistance:
2140 from the May and June 2010 lows
2151 is the Tuesday gap down point
2155 is the August 2010 low and the March 2008 intraday low
The 10 day EMA at 2167
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2177 is a low from March 2008
2184 is the June gap bottom side.
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2221 is the gap down upside point from June.
The 50 day EMA at 2225
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
The 200 day SMA at 2272
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2292 is a low from January 2008
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2341 is the June 2010 peak
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2382-2395 from 2008

Support:
2100 is the February 2010 low
2061 is the July 2010 low
2024 from November 2009
2020 to 2005 from the Q4 2009 peaks


S&P 500: Closed at 1047.22
Resistance:
1065 is the May flash crash intraday low.
1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010. Important level.
The 10 day EMA at 1070
1078 is the October range low
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
The 50 day EMA at 1090
1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks
1106 is the September 2008 low
1114 is the November 2009 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1116
1119 is the early December intraday high
1131 is the June 2010 peak
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008

Support:

1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1040 is the May and June 2010 low
1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation
946 from June 2009


Dow: Closed at 9985.21
Resistance:
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
10,209 is recent August 2010 low
10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
The 50 day EMA at 10,328
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
The 200 day SMA at 10,454
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,594 is the June 2010 peak
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak

Support:
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low
9325 is a late 2008 interim peak
9034 from early 2009 peaks


Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

August 30 - Monday
Personal Income, July (08:30): 0.2% expected, 0.0% prior
Personal Spending, July (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.1% prior
PCE Prices - Core, July (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior

August 31 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city Home Price Survey, June (09:00): 3.5% expected, 4.61% prior
Chicago PMI, August (09:45): 57.5 expected, 62.3 prior
Consumer Confidence, August (10:00): 50.0 expected, 50.40 prior
Minutes of FOMC Meeting, 08/10 (14:00)

September 01 - Wednesday
ADP Employment Change, August (08:15): 13K expected, 42K prior
Construction Spending, July (10:00): -0.7% expected, 0.1% prior
ISM Index, August (10:00): 53.0 expected, 55.5 prior
Crude Inventories, 08/28 (10:30): 4.11M prior
Auto Sales, August (14:00): 3.9M expected, 3.8M prior
Truck Sales, August (14:00): 5.1M expected, 5.14M prior

September 02 - Thursday
Initial Jobless Claims, 08/28 (08:30): 475K expected, 473K prior
Continuing Claims, 08/21 (08:30): 4435K expected, 4456K prior
Productivity-Rev., Q2 (08:30): -1.6% expected, -0.9% prior
Unit Labor Costs, Q2 (08:30): 1.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Factory Orders, July (10:00): 0.3% expected, -1.2% prior
Pending Home Sales, July (10:00): 0.0% expected, -2.6% prior

September 03 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, August (08:30): -118K expected, -131K prior
Nonfarm Payrolls - Private, August (08:30): 42K expected, 71K prior
Unemployment Rate, August (08:30): 9.6% expected, 9.5% prior
Hourly Earnings, August (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Average Workweek, August (08:30): 34.2 expected, 34.2 prior
ISM Services, August (10:00): 53.2 expected, 54.3 prior


August 24 - Tuesday
Existing Home Sales, July (10:00): 3.83M actual versus 4.72M expected, 5.26M prior (revised from 5.37M)

August 25 - Wednesday
Durable Orders, July (08:30): 0.3% actual versus 3.0% expected, -0.1% prior (revised from -1.2%)
Durable Goods -ex Transportation, July (08:30): -3.8% actual versus 0.5% expected, 0.2% prior (revised from -0.9%)
New Home Sales, July (10:00): 276K actual versus 334K expected, 315K prior (revised from 330K)
Crude Inventories, 08/21 (10:30): 4.11M actual versus -0.818M prior

August 26 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 08/21 (08:30): 473K actual versus 485K expected, 504K prior (revised from 500K)
Continuing Claims, 08/14 (08:30): 4456K actual versus 4515K expected, 4518K prior (revised from 4478K)

August 27 - Friday


GDP - Second Estimate, Q2 (08:30): 1.6% actual versus 1.4% expected, 2.4% prior
GDP Deflator - Second iteration, Q2 (08:30): 1.9% actual versus 1.8% expected, 1.8% prior
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, August (09:55): 68.9 actual versus 70.0 expected, 69.6 prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2010 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com

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Monday, August 23, 2010

Once Again Stocks Recover

SUMMARY:
- A quiet expiration Friday overcomes a very weak start as SP500 recovers to hold 1070, and importantly, stay inside the range.
- Initial bias was lower with the Friday news vacuum, but once again stocks recover. More than end of the week short covering?
- Bonds surging again, dollar ready to rally further, but LIBOR is falling quickly. If not the US, then what country in Europe?
- Plenty of gloom, but think with your head, not your guts: look at leadership and the patterns. They are still bullish.

Lots of gloom, surging bonds, rallying dollar, economic weakness, but stocks hold the line at support.

Lots of gloom, surging bonds, rallying dollar, economic weakness, but stocks hold the line at support.

It is going to be a bit different tonight. I will pull from many different areas to give a picture of what is happening with the markets in the world right now. I want to show how they dovetail together and foreshadow what is coming down the road. It may not be what you expect, and it is definitely not what the mainstream is reporting with respect to the world economies and markets.

I will start by just going over the basics. Today was a quiet Friday expiration. A very weak start, but then a recovery as SP500 held the 1070 level. Stocks started weak and sold into mid-morning bottoming right before lunch once again. SP500 undercut the 1070 level. Indeed, it tested it as it tried to bounce in the morning but failed twice. It held 1064 and then started to work its way back up with something of an intraday inverted head and shoulders. It broke through 1070 and managed to hold on into the close by the skin of its teeth at 1071-1072. NASDAQ turned slightly positive. The Dow came back to a -0.5% loss after impressive triple-digit losses earlier. SP500 closed negative, but with only a -0.37% decline, it was not nearly as bad as it had been. SOX finished positive with almost a +0.5% gain. The small caps were basically flat. It was a mixed market. Growth was in the lead versus the SP500, which really has the best-looking pattern of the group right now. Even after Friday when it was lagging, it still has positives to it. It reached down intraday, but it again found buyers and rallied back to hold 1070. That was important, but it is extremely important that it is still holding in its trading range.

There has been a lot of bad news in the last couple of weeks. The market has sold off on that news, but it has not broken down. There was significantly bad news (like the Philly Fed on Thursday) that could have broken the market's back, but it did not break through intermediate support at 1070. It is still well off the bottom of the range, including the February low as well as the May and June lows and not to mention the July selloff that was a false breakdown and reversed the SP500 and the rest of the market.

The other indices are showing the same kind of fortitude, although they may not be in as good a position as SP500. Nonetheless, they are holding within their range. Again, that is significant given all of the negatives impacting the market over the past few weeks. Even with all the negatives that hit, we did have the rally on earnings that brought stocks back into the top of the range. Now they are having their downside move on a bout of some bad news, but it did not sink the market.

I am making a big deal out of the SP500 rallying back to hold 1070 on Friday. You may ask if that was just short covering after a week that saw a bloody Thursday. No doubt there was some short covering. No doubt some of the people who sold on Thursday and saw their positions slide further on Friday morning banked some profit. That helped drive things back up as they bought stocks to cover their short positions, but that is not the end of the story. I will go into this more when I discuss leadership. For now, remember that SP500 it did hold 1070 on the day, but that it is within an overall larger trading range. Indeed, it is well off the bottom of its trading range.


OTHER MARKETS

Dollar. There has been the selloff, a hold at support a very logical level for it to hold and an oversold bounce. There has been a pullback this week to test that bounce. It held the near term support at the 10 day EMA and 18 day EMA, showing doji on both Wednesday and Thursday. Friday there was sharp break to the upside, and the dollar traded below 1.27 Euro at one point. It was down to 1.269 (and less) on the session. By the close, it could not hold off all of the gain (1.2711 Euro versus 1.2819 Thursday). Off its peak, but it closed above the 50 day EMA. It had a very solid bounce after this short flag pattern that consolidated the initial break off the February and March support level and it came back to test that.

Dollars are acting as a safe haven again. We last saw that in April and May when Europe was falling off the table. The dollar then sold June to mid August when it was decided that the European woes were overblown. Indeed, Germany is showing good GDP growth. You would think those fear were overblown and the dollar was artificially inflated by those fears. Now the dollar is moving back up. Could it be on some the weaker US data? It could, but why would people buy US dollars if they thought the problem was with the US economy? If the US economy goes downhill, the Fed will do everything it can to keep the money supply plentiful and growing and that works adversely to the value of the dollar. The dollar should be going down if we are worried about the US economy, but it is going back up. Indeed, it started to break higher out of its own inverted head and shoulders pattern after the selloff.

How many times have we seen this pattern in plays in this market? We have many plays on the report with this pattern, and now the dollar is showing it. AMZN formed an inverted head and shoulders and broke higher. Now it is testing and ready to move again. BEN had a selloff, an inverted head and shoulders, and now a break to the upside. GMCR is not as clear, but you can see the selloff, the formation of the head and shoulders, and the break higher. JOYG: Shoulder, head, shoulders, and the break higher. NTGR shows a very clear inverted head and shoulders, a breakout, and now it is testing. SCHN has the inverted head and shoulders, a break to the upside, and you could even say it is forming a new shoulder now. WEBMD: inverted head and shoulders, test, and then a break to the upside.

There are more than this, but I am just giving an idea what is out there. You cannot swing a dead cat without hitting a stock that is in either an inverted head and shoulders pattern or, more recently, forming ABCD consolidations. There are also flag consolidations, double bottoms, double bottoms with handles, cup with handles, and there have been trading ranges. These are not selloff patterns; they are accumulation patterns. They are not topping patterns. There are buyers slowly working into stocks, and they are working into them when there is a lot of gloom in the market.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg


Bonds. Bonds have been on fire. There was a gap higher this week, clearing this consolidation range, and surging to the upside. The 10 year was off on Friday after a tremendous run (2.61% off from the 2.57% on Thursday), but it was trading at 2.55% premarket. We made a lot of money off the TLT as it surged to the upside.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tlt.jpeg


Gold. Gold rallied off of the low that was hit as Europe recovered. Higher through May, and then it turned over when it looked like Europe would recover. It has been rallying back up over the past three weeks. If the economies are better than we thought, then there is a concern about inflation. There was also a play on gold we saw during the May issues with the EU it was a safe haven out of fear. Even though gold tends to rise when there are worries of inflation and will fall with worries of deflation, it was nonetheless rising. People are flat-out scared, and they are buying gold, US bonds, and US dollars even though the US economic data has been poor and people are suggesting a double dip recession.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg


Oil. Oil has been falling, and that is expected if the US economy is falling. It had a sharp plunge and was down again on Friday ($73.46, -0.97). This has been quite a tumble from over $82 almost 10 points in two weeks. It hit resistance and fell. That made some sense, but now it is just tumbling further. Is it just the US, or is there something more out there?

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg


TECHNICAL SUMMARY

INTERNALS

Volume. Volume was lower at 1.9B shares on the NASDAQ. Volume was up to 1.1B on SP500. A little expiration volume came in on the NYSE.

Breadth. The A/D was flat on NASDAQ, and they held a slight 1.5:1 lead on the NYSE. Nothing major here.


CHARTS

SP500. SP500 undercut the 1070 on the low and recovered it on the close. It is maintaining its range. Volume was elevated again, but this is expiration week, so you would expect volume to be a bit higher. It was still below average. Some sellers were taking advantage, but you could say the opposite on Friday as the market bounced back on elevated volume. The buyers stepped in to support it.

NASDAQ. Similar action on the NASDAQ. It sold off but rallied back, turning slightly positive. It, too, held an interim level in its trading range, holding over the May and June lows. Not the prettiest picture, but it remains inside of its trading range with something of an inverted head and shoulders. It is the same as the SP500.

SP600. Not pretty either. It sold, undercut the recent low, and reversed. It did not quite make it positive, but it closed flat. It is trying to hold these prior lows from July and June. Small caps are struggling. Economic data has not been kind to the small caps because their bread and butter is the US economy, and it is not doing that well. Nonetheless, they are still above the February low. They never touched it on the last selling, and they remain inside their trading range.

SOX. The SOX was up on the day almost 0.5%. It is still below its trading range. It is in the lower reaches where it was testing intraday and recovering in May through July. It is not out of the woods, but looking at the SMH (the ETF for the semiconductors a broader group) it is still inside of its range. It did not get much of the bounce, but it is trying to move up again. As with all of the indices, they holding inside their four-month trading range, and that is important.


LEADERSHIP

Tonight I will look at leadership a bit differently, and I want to examine certain patterns to demonstrate a point. BEN sold off and formed the inverted head and shoulders and broke out. It is now consolidating that move with an ABCD pattern that is a consolidation pattern. What is the import of this? There is the strong move to the upside as there was in July. These are not perfect because there is this hitch in late July before the peak, but it is still the same type of move. A strong move up to the "A" point, and then it sells off and makes a lower low. There is a lower high, a lower low, and then people get worried and say the momentum is gone. The gloom rises and things do not look good. Sound familiar? That is what is happening now.

What about other stocks? BIDU was in a trading range. It broke out and surged on the news in July on the earnings runs, and then it pulled back. It pulled back, made a lower high, and it is in the process of making a lower low. Things do not look good as BIDU, one of the market leaders, falls to the wayside. Everything else looks strong. You have to recognize that this is a type of ABCD pattern. BWLD has not surged to a high like the others yet it is in the process of recovering. It did make a solid surge off the July low, and now it is making an ABCD pattern. Indeed, it broke upside and is now testing back after that initial move. It could make a break up into the gap point.

CNMD has not rallied yet either. It has made its selloff, and it is working on an inverted head and shoulders. As it is doing this, it is setting up an ABCD pattern. It is a consolidation of the July to August move, and that is setting up the shoulder for a break to the upside. Do you want more? CTSH made a nice breakout, a gap, and formed the X-to-A point. The ABCD pattern is not huge, but there it is. It started to break higher off of that this week. Now it is testing, making a higher low, and looks ready to move up as well. RIG is setting up an ABCD pattern off the breakout of this consolidation. It is not a huge runner like some of them. NTGR has a nice, inverted head and shoulders, a nice breakout, and now it is setting up an ABCD pattern. It broke higher, tested, and looks like it will be ready to make a run again. There are many of these. SID broke higher, showing an ABCD pattern.

These are consolidations. They do not mean it is an automatic run to the upside, but when you see so many of these forming, that can sit in the back of your mind. When you compile it with all the gloom in the market and the fact that the indices are holding their trading ranges (and are up inside of their trading ranges), you start to wonder what is going on. SP500 is not a perfect example, but it had its little inverted head and shoulders and a break higher. Now there is an ABCD setting up. Note where this is setting up: right at support, and right at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of this July to August move. Indeed, it has a little double bottom that looks to be forming at this level. I love to see those double bottoms. Note that each time it has touched it the buyers have popped it back up.


Don't Forget the Sentiment.

Another piece of data to look at is the put/call ratio in the 'Market Sentiment' section. It moved back over 1. That is showing there are more puts being bought than calls. That is not definitive in and of itself, but when leaned up with all the other indications, it suggests the gloom level is high and could be getting to the point of a turn. The market had not sold off that hard it is still in the middle of its range. The SP500 is trying to hold in the lower third of its range, and it keeps finding support at 1070. High gloom. Leaders are in accumulation patterns, and SP500 is in an accumulation pattern with a reverse head and shoulders plus the ABCD pattern.

Investors are negative on the market even when stocks are showing relatively bullish accumulation patterns. Many leaders are holding very nice gains. There are others in the industrial sector CAT, JOYG, CMI trading well up into the tops of their ranges, but they are not showing any weakness. They are not ready to roll over; indeed, they are forming the ABCD patterns I have been talking about. That is a good consolidation. It is not a lock, but when so many of these are forming and you couple that with the gloom and the indices not wanting to break down in their range, you get the idea that the stock market does not want to fall. Why does it not want to fall given the bad economic news out there?


Pulling It All Together.

This is where I try to pull it all together. US stocks are not that worried about what is going on in the US. The economic news has been worsening the entire time, and the fact that the stocks are maintaining a trading range and holding support is indicative that the market as factored in this bad news for the most part. It will knock the market around for the day of the release, but overall it has not taken the market down to new lows. With the bullish patterns you see on many of the leadership stocks, that would make you more inclined to believe that stocks may be ready to rally despite the gloom (or BECAUSE of a lot of the gloom). They may not rally from where they are right now they may test lower in the range. SP500 may come down to the May and June lows and then bounce back up. There are a lot of patterns that look about ready to go however, so it may not get much lower before it tries to rally back.

The US stock market may not break out of its base, but it wants to rally back up. It is continuing to consolidate even in the face of bad news. Given that, what is going on with bonds? Bonds are surging higher, and the dollar is rallying. What is driving people to those markets? A lot of investors were burned on stocks and do not want to go back into stocks. At the first sign of trouble, they are running into bonds. Surely some of the buying has to do with US investors being a bit jaded with the US stock market and seeking a safe place in bonds. That is great. The stock market may not be the best market. Bonds are the best market to determine the future, but the stock market is not selling off it had its selling and is trying to recover.

What else could be driving bonds? We do not know what the yield curve is because the Fed has been keeping that tamped down on the low end for a long time. It has not had a chance to invert because the Fed has already been in the game for so long, holding the short end down. It has been selling more at the short end of late, but the long end is selling more quickly. That is leading to the flatter curve, but it is not leading to an inverted curve right now. If it inverts, the US economy looks like it would be heading toward another recession, or maybe a depression this time. But it is not doing that. US bonds are rallying, and the dollar is rallying as well.

What does all this mean? It does not necessarily mean great things for the US economy, but not horrible things either. It does not mean we are going to surge higher, but it could mean the worst is over for now (although I hate to go out on THAT limb). Everyone is predicting a double dip, except the stock market is not diving lower even on bad news. With the US stock market holding in its range despite bad news, and with plenty of leadership in the market forming accumulation patterns, why are bonds rallying? Why is the dollar rallying and setting up for an even bigger rally? Looking at the chart of the TLT, back in 2008 there was a massive surge with the financial crisis. Then there was the fall off as things cooled off, and now we are seeing another rally. Indeed, we gapped through a serious resistance point this week on strong volume, and bonds were running higher. This is troubling to say the least. At the same time, LIBOR rates fell to a new low for this cycle at 0.33%. They have been dropping steadily all week about a click a day, and they are well off the peak. During this period, the LIBOR ratings were not measured in points at all. They were hugely inflated. The cost of insuring credit default swaps exploded higher to unheard-of levels, and LIBOR surged over 4% as well. A tremendous surge. This time, LIBOR is heading lower as bonds are moving higher.

That means this time it is not a financial issue. It is not a problem with banks not trusting one another and not lending. Those links in the chain have been repaired. Something else is going on here. I could be wrong, but I believe the problem lies back in Europe. I think the market in the US is probably anticipating some kind of change in the fall elections that would help combat some of what the market feels are anti-business and thus anti-US economy policies. Thus the market is consolidating but not breaking down on the economic news. As for Europe, even though Germany is strong, I think a sovereign debt issue is still ready to explode. Germany may be in great shape, but it has done things that other EU countries have not done. It has gone through its austerity program it had to absorb East Germany, after all, and get its house in order. It has done so and is doing fabulously, but Germany is not Europe. I think there is a country or two on the verge of imploding, and it will be a sovereign debt issue. It could be Spain, Italy, or Greece. Greece and Spain are considered real problems. Is there a dark horse in Portugal? The UK could flip back over as well.

I do not know which one it could be, but something a story is being told in the currency markets. The dollar is rallying again when it should be falling against the Euro. If the EU is so strong and the US is heading to a double dip, then the dollar should be falling. But it has a good bullish pattern going. I could be totally wrong, but it looks like there is a sovereign debt issue being factored in that could hit the markets by surprise given the belief Europe is in the clear. You can bet that will affect the US market. If that kind of news comes out, it is not good, but it is hard to plan on when it will come. We will have to watch the bond market and the currency markets and see how rapidly they accelerate. If they accelerate too rapidly, that is a concern and you prepare by lightening up and hedging.

With respect to the US currency, it also could mean that it has factored in all the bad news and feels like we will not have the double dip. It may feel there is a change coming in the fall with the elections that will rectify a lot of these issues. When you look at the action in US stocks you can see that it could be factoring that in and the two dovetail. That could explain the currency rally, but it still does not explain the bonds issue. We have to be cautious moving ahead. I will keep my eye on currency and bonds rates. If there is too big of a spike, we have to be cautious with our stock plays.


THE MARKET

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX: 25.49; -0.95
VXN: 25.76; -1.14
VXO: 25.45; -0.65

VIX. The VIX has been moving in a range, more or less holding at the 200 day EMA that is coincident with the January and February peaks. There is enough gloom in the market to keep it at a slightly elevated level. It rallied even as the market put in a bit of a gain. There are worries about just how valid any market move is. When you listen to the financial stations, you can feel the gloom out there; it is very depressing. Everyone seems convinced that the market is in trouble and we are headed for a double dip. Yet the market is holding in its range. Volatility is holding at a semi-elevated level, but there are no cracks in either.

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.04; +0.07


Bulls versus Bears:

Back to more bulls than bears, the 'normal' state of affairs for the market. This after a crossover and then a tie. A rare crossover a month back and it was, as s typical, a bullish scenario.

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 36.7% versus 41.7%. Tumbling back down toward the 35% range, moving closer to the 35.6% hit a month back when the bulls and bears crossed over. They are starting to merge again, a good sign. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 31.1% versus 27.5%. A nice jump as the bears head for the bulls once more, no longer endangered. Moving back toward the 35.6% level hit just a few weeks before. Hit 18.7% on the low. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


NASDAQ

Stats: +0.81 points (+0.04%) to close at 2179.76
Volume: 1.936B (-3.45%)

Up Volume: 1.032B (+682.334M)
Down Volume: 837.629M (-915.863M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.02 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 4.14 to 1

New Highs: 24 (+1)
New Lows: 143 (+9)

NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg


SP500/NYSE

Stats: -3.94 points (-0.37%) to close at 1071.69
NYSE Volume: 1.123B (+4.71%)

Up Volume: 320.382M (+238.177M)
Down Volume: 789.028M (-191.786M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.5 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 3.72 to 1

New Highs: 199 (-50)
New Lows: 123 (+31)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg


DJ30

Stats: -57.59 points (-0.56%) to close at 10213.62
Volume DJ30: 251M shares on expiration Friday versus 227M shares Thursday.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg


MONDAY

There will be some important economic data with existing home sales coming out and new home sales on Wednesday. Durable goods are always important and, as always, the initial jobless claims come out on Thursday. Then we will get the second look at the GDP for Q2. It is expected to drop down to 1.4% as things have softened in the US. That is what is expected, but what can we expect from stocks? You may know where I am going with this because I have already discussed a lot of good leaders in accumulation patterns (not distribution patterns). I will be watching for the market to hold. I think the SP500 could make a stand where it is now and continue higher given its pattern as well as the pattern shown by many of the strong stocks that are not breaking down. Indeed, they are setting up accumulation of their own.

The gloom is very high. Many people think we are going into another recession, or maybe even a depression and we may. Who knows? It can happen if the shocks are bad enough. The stocks are telling us that things are not as gloomy as the financial stations would lead you to believe, however. Think with your head and not with your guts. With this market, if you always thought with our guts, you would spend a lot of time puking. You have to step back and recognize leadership patterns. You have to recognize the trading ranges, the ABCD patterns, the inverted head and shoulders, the cup with handles, and the flag patterns that have formed after good surges to the upside. These are not selloff patterns these are profit taking and accumulation patterns. They are still bullish. I will try to think with my head even though my guts may be asking if I am sure about all this. Play the percentages and good risk/reward levels. These patterns are providing that. You have good risk/reward levels in these patterns if we move in at the right time. As they set up, we want to be ready to make the moves. We have been playing these, and some of them that we are playing now have pulled back in these accumulation/consolidation patterns. We will be looking to pick up more of these leaders.

It is a wild market out there. All the markets are going in different directions, and it is leading people astray. They get overwhelmed when thinking with their guts and not their heads. Trust in the patterns that you are seeing, and trust in the fact that the market has not broken down despite bad news. We have to be cautious with respect to what bonds are doing. Maybe not as much as currency, but we need to watch it. There are issues out there we have to be cautious about. They may come from overseas surprise, surprise and not the US where everyone expects it to come from given our weakening economic data. Again, we have seen the bad data. The market has been hit with lackluster guidance, worse-than-expected leading indicators, regional manufacturing falling down, housing sales still in the toilet, and jobless claims rising to 500K on a weekly basis. This is bad, bad news, but the market is holding inside of its range. Not only that, but it is up off the bottom of the range.

That means we will continue to look for bullish patterns. We will look for opportunity to move in, and we will not forget the downside you have to be ready in case things implode. We have to go with our heads and use what we know about the market versus what our guts are telling us. Go with what you know rather than listening to the opinions of people on the financial stations who are only messing with your head. Think about it, have a great weekend, and I will see you on Monday.


Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2179.76

Resistance:
2184 is the June gap bottom side.
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2221 is the gap down upside point from June.
The 50 day EMA at 2240
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
The 200 day SMA at 2271
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2292 is a low from January 2008
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2341 is the June 2010 peak
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2382-2395 from 2008

Support:
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2155 is the August 2010 low and the March 2008 intraday low
2140 from the May and June 2010 lows
2100 is the February 2010 low
2061 is the July 2010 low
2024 from November 2009
2020 to 2005 from the Q4 2009 peaks


S&P 500: Closed at 1071.69
Resistance:
1078 is the October range low
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
The 50 day EMA at 1096
1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks
1106 is the September 2008 low
1114 is the November 2009 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1116
1119 is the early December intraday high
1131 is the June 2010 peak
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008

Support:

1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010. Important level.
1065 is the May flash crash intraday low.
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1040 is the May and June 2010 low
1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation
946 from June 2009


Dow: Closed at 10,213.62
Resistance:
10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
The 50 day EMA at 10,374
The 200 day SMA at 10,453
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,594 is the June 2010 peak
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak

Support:
10,209 is recent August 2010 low
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low
9325 is a late 2008 interim peak
9034 from early 2009 peaks


Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

August 24 - Tuesday
Existing Home Sales, July (10:00): 4.75M expected, 5.37M prior

August 25 - Wednesday
Durable Orders, July (08:30): 3.1% expected, -1.2% prior
Durable Goods -ex Transportation, July (08:30): 0.5% expected, -0.9% prior
New Home Sales, July (10:00): 330K expected, 330K prior
Crude Inventories, 08/21 (10:30): -0.818M prior

August 26 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 08/21 (08:30): 485K expected, 500K prior
Continuing Claims, 08/14 (08:30): 4515K expected, 4478K prior

August 27 - Friday
GDP - Second Estimate, Q2 (08:30): 1.4% expected, 2.4% prior
GDP Deflator - Second iteration, Q2 (08:30): 1.8% expected, 1.8% prior
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, August (09:55): 69.4 expected, 69.6 prior


August 16 - Monday
NY Fed - Empire Manufacturing PMI, August (08:30): 7.10 actual versus 7.5 expected, 5.08 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, June (09:00): $44.4B actual versus $35.3B prior (revised from $35.4B)
NAHB Housing Market Sentiment, August (10:00): 13 actual versus 14 expected, 14 prior

August 17 - Tuesday
Housing Starts, July (08:30): 546K actual versus 555K expected, 537K prior (revised from 549K)
Building Permits, July (08:30): 565K actual versus 573K expected, 583K prior (revised from 586K)
PPI, July (08:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected, -0.5% prior
Core PPI, July (08:30): 0.3% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Industrial Production, July (09:15): 1.0% actual versus 0.6% expected, -0.1% prior (revised from 0.1%)
Capacity Utilization, July (09:15): 74.8% actual versus 74.5% expected, 74.1% prior

August 18 - Wednesday
Crude Inventories, 08/14 (10:30): -0.818M actual versus -2.99M prior

August 19 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 08/14 (08:30): 500K actual versus 475K expected, 488K prior (revised from 484K)
Continuing Claims, 08/07 (08:30): 4478K actual versus 4500K expected, 4491K prior (revised from 4452K)
Leading Indicators, July (10:00): 0.1% actual versus 0.2% expected, -0.3% prior (revised from -0.2%)
Philadelphia Fed, August (10:00): -7.7 actual versus 7.5 expected, 5.10 prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2010 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com

Technorati tags:

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Retail Sales Decent, But Not Impressive

SUMMARY:
- Molasses slow session and low volume cap a week of downside.
- With earnings over, market looked at the economic data it ignored during the rally, and it didn't like what it saw.
- A down week but bigger picture key indices such as SP500 are simply testing back in their bases/trading ranges.
- Retail sales decent, but not impressive.
- CPI posts first gain in four months.
- EU GDP jumps and market, fearing ECB inflation fighting, sells back yet again.
- Back in the base once more, and the pullback provides opportunity.

Market gets a dose of reality after a heady earnings run.

I styled it the Captain Ron market where stocks seemed to find a way to rally during earnings season despite what was occurring outside the current earnings environment.

Once earnings ended, however, investors were forced to take a harder look at the economic data. The US news is simply not positive, leaving many to wonder if this is a slow patch or a renewed slow down in the economy.

With those questions investors pulled the plug on more buying, preferring to take profits instead. As with the question about the economy as a slow patch or slow down, investors are left wondering if last week's action was merely a profit taking pullback or a more nefarious selloff.

For now, however, the indices, particularly the SP500, are still in their bases, simply fading back from the January/June resistance that they were just not quite ready to break through. SP500 looks as if it wants to try and hold, and if it does, then the basing remains in place and we continue to play the same way, i.e. playing a trading range using stocks that are ready to move with the range.


OTHER MARKETS

Dollar.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg


Bonds.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tlt.jpeg


Gold.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg


Oil.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg



THE MARKET

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX: 26.24; +0.51
VXN: 28.07; +0.44
VXO: 26.68; +0.95

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1; 0


Bulls versus Bears:

Back to more bulls than bears, the 'normal' state of affairs for the market. This after a crossover and then a tie. A rare crossover a month back and it was, as s typical, a bullish scenario.

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 41.7% versus 38.9%. Still on the rise from that 35.6% hit three weeks back when the bulls and bears crossed over. Now they are heading in opposite directions, of course just as the market rolled over. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 27.5%. The bears are suddenly on the endangered species list, falling from 33.3% last week and 35.6% just a few weeks before. Hit 18.7% on the low. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


NASDAQ

Stats: -16.79 points (-0.77%) to close at 2173.48
Volume: 1.576B (-27.03%)

Up Volume: 420.03M (-317.649M)
Down Volume: 1.108B (-317.032M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.26 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.48 to 1

New Highs: 17 (0)
New Lows: 119 (-35)

NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg


SP500/NYSE

Stats: -4.36 points (-0.4%) to close at 1079.25
NYSE Volume: 870.055M (-13.54%)

Up Volume: 353.264M (-24.777M)
Down Volume: 505.881M (-110.287M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.16 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.39 to 1

New Highs: 236 (+45)
New Lows: 93 (-19)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg


DJ30

Stats: -16.8 points (-0.16%) to close at 10303.15
Volume DJ30: 151M shares Friday versus 221M shares Thursday.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg



Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2173.48

Resistance:
2177 is a low from March 2008
2184 is the June gap bottom side.
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2221 is the gap down upside point from June.
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
The 50 day EMA at 2250
The 200 day SMA at 2268
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2292 is a low from January 2008
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2341 is the June 2010 peak
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2382-2395 from 2008

Support:
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2140 from the May and June 2010 lows
2100 is the February 2010 low
2061 is the July 2010 low
2024 from November 2009
2020 to 2005 from the Q4 2009 peaks


S&P 500: Closed at 1079.25
Resistance:
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
The 50 day EMA at 1100
1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks
1106 is the September 2008 low
1114 is the November 2009 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1116
1119 is the early December intraday high
1131 is the June 2010 peak
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008

Support:

1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010
1065 is the May flash crash intraday low.
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1040 is the May and June 2010 low
1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation
946 from June 2009


Dow: Closed at 10,303.15
Resistance:
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
The 50 day EMA at 10,386
The 200 day SMA at 10,440
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,594 is the June 2010 peak
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak

Support:
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low
9325 is a late 2008 interim peak
9034 from early 2009 peaks


Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

August 10 - Tuesday
Productivity-Prel, Q2 (08:30): -0.9% actual versus 0.1% expected, 3.9% prior (revised from 2.8%)
Unit Labor Costs, Q2 (08:30): 0.2% actual versus 1.4% expected, -3.7% prior (revised from -1.3%)
Wholesale Inventories, June (10:00): 0.1% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.5% prior
FOMC Rate Decision, August 10 (14:15): 0.25% actual versus 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior

August 11 - Wednesday
Trade Balance, June (08:30): -$49.9B actual versus -$42.2B expected, -$42.0B prior (revised from -$42.3B)
Crude Inventories, 08/07 (10:30): -2.99M actual versus -2.78M prior
Treasury Budget, July (14:00): -$165.0B actual versus -$169.0B expected, -$180.7B prior

August 12 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 08/07 (08:30): 484K actual versus 465K expected, 482K prior (revised from 479K)
Continuing Claims, 07/31 (08:30): 4452K actual versus 4600K expected, 4570K prior (revised from 4452K)
Export Prices ex-ag., July (08:30): -0.2% actual versus -0.8% prior (revised from -0.2%)
Import Prices ex-oil, July (08:30): -0.3% actual versus -0.5% prior (revised from -0.6%)

August 13 - Friday
CPI, July (08:30): 0.3% actual versus 0.2% expected, -0.1% prior
Core CPI, July (08:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Retail Sales, July (08:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.5% expected, -0.3% prior (revised from -0.5%)
Retail Sales ex-auto, July (08:30compq): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected, -0.1% prior
Michigan Sentiment, August (09:55): 69.6 actual versus 70.0 expected, 67.80 prior
Business Inventories, June (10:00): 0.3% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior (revised from 0.1%)


August 16 - Monday
NY Fed - Empire Manufacturing, August (08:30): 7.5 expected, 5.08 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, May (09:00): $35.4B prior
NAHB Housing Market, August (10:00): 14 expected, 14 prior

August 17 - Tuesday
Housing Starts, July (08:30): 555K expected, 549K prior
Building Permits, July (08:30): 573K expected, 586K prior
PPI, July (08:30): 0.2% expected, -0.5% prior
Core PPI, July (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Industrial Production, July (09:15): 0.6% expected, 0.1% prior
Capacity Utilization, July (09:15): 74.5% expected, 74.1% prior

August 18 - Wednesday
Crude Inventories, 08/14 (10:30): -2.99M prior

August 19 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 08/14 (08:30): 475K expected, 484K prior
Continuing Claims, 08/07 (08:30): 4500K expected, 4452K prior
Leading Indicators, July (10:00): 0.2% expected, -0.2% prior
Philadelphia Fed, August (10:00): 7.5 expected, 5.10 prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2010 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com

Technorati tags:

Sunday, August 08, 2010

Jobs Report Lousy, Market Sells, BUT . . .

SUMMARY:
- Jobs report lousy, market sells, BUT . . . once again it recovers.
- No breakout over the resistance the past week, but resilience remained the theme.
- July jobs miss, June revised lower, and even the steady unemployment rate is no good news.
- ECRI shows there is some life left in the economy.
- The challenge in the coming week is still the January/June highs.

Another slap in investors' faces, but jobs report does not turn over the rally.

The jobs news for July was not that great on Friday. It was not that great for June either. Instead of the -87K loss expected, there were -131K jobs lost last month. In June it was revised lower to -221K from an initially reported -125K job decline. At least the unemployment rate stayed the same at 9.5% versus the expected tick higher to 9.6%, but it was because more people left the jobs pool. It actually means things are worse because more people gave up trying to find work.

The market did not like that news and indeed started down lower. Futures were knocked down, and the market gapped to the downside yet again. It tried to rally almost immediately back on the open, but turned around and sold to a new low midday. Seems like the buyers that came in on the bad news were not strong enough. Definitely the news was not good enough to drive stocks higher, but the market did continue its theme; after selling off early in the morning there was a steady rise into the close. The market came back. NASDAQ -0.2%, Dow -0.2%, SP500 -0.4%, SOX -0.2%, SP600 -0.7%, and NASDAQ 100 -0.1%. Quite an impressive comeback then again, we have had impressive comebacks all week. On Thursday there was a sharp selloff on the open and a recovery into the close. On Wednesday there was a sharp selloff to mid-session and then a recovery into the close. The market shall overcome, and that is what it has been doing this week and for most of the rally. There have been many sessions where the market has reached lower only to reverse. That is a good sign, but it does not mean it is free and clear.

The last three sessions we have not seen great news. There were problems with the weekly jobless claims on Thursday being worse an anticipated. Same store sales were down and not looking great. Of course the unemployment report did not do much good for anybody. Indeed this entire move has overcome rather crappy economic data, and the salvation has been earnings. The earnings season was better than expected; a lot of companies beat and a lot of companies raised guidance. That propelled the market higher and kept the market moving higher through the entire season. Typically the market gets halfway through and then it rolls over and goes back down. If it has been selling off into the numbers, it turns around and rallies back up. The market had sold down into earnings season, so it had a nice rally all the way through July and into early August. Thus, while there has been some good news and some bad news (economically speaking), the market has picked its way through the mine field and rallied up to that January and July peak range. It did not quite make it there, but it came really close. NASDAQ and SP500 could have spit on it, but they did not quite get there. That will be the test for the market next week and beyond. That is still there regardless of what the market did on Friday unless it had broken it. Obviously it did not break those levels Friday, so it will still have to deal with them.

The Friday action was not bad, and you could even view it as constructive. The market sold off sharply. The SP500 undercut the 200 day EMA, but reversed and regained almost all of its losses. NASDAQ saw the same thing. It was down below the 200 day EMA, tapped the 50 day EMA, reversed, and almost made it to positive. That is repeated across the market. It was a nice recovery when there was really no reason to recover. The economic news was terrible and earnings are almost over, so why would the market cover? It is the technical move right now. The resilience is still there, and it is a good thing to see for the upside even after a weak jobs report on Friday. There was no reason for the market to try to move back up. It had resistance ahead, the numbers were not great, but it did nonetheless. That is showing the same resilience for whatever reason it is there. It could be earnings. Companies have cash, and people think they have to spend it and hire people eventually. They do not have to do anything, but we will see.

I know it rhymes with dope, but there is hope out there that the economy will improve because the market is trying to rally even in the face of weak economic data. The proof will be next week and the weeks ahead when the indices take on the January and June peaks once more. They made a good show of coming back on Friday. That shows there are still buyers there and it was a constructive move. We will see if it was constructive enough to make the breakout.


OTHER MARKETS.

Dollar. The dollar had looked ready to bounce. It was down at key support at the 200 day EMA and the trading range from February to March even into April. The weak economic data gave no one reason to buy dollars. Indeed it gave reason to sell, and it closed lower. It broke below the 200 day EMA on the close, bounced a little off to have lows, but not enough to make a difference on the day (1.3296 Euros versus 1.3184 Thursday). It appears there is no reason to buy dollars right now, and we will have to see it come to the bottom of this range to see where it will find its support.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg


Bonds. With the economy looking weak, bonds looked strong. There was a gap higher. That has been a seesaw battle actually a seasick battle as it gapped daily back and forth. Friday the gap was to the upside because of the weak economic data (10 year US treasury 2.82% versus 2.90% Thursday). The 2 year broke 0.5% for the first time the history. It did manage to close at 0.51%, so thank goodness we can all sleep easily tonight. You see the issue. The problems with the economy are driving US investors into US Treasuries. It is not driving any of the foreign buyers there, however. The perception is that Europe is doing a lot better, so all the Euro that flew into US Treasuries have left. Now it is good old' Americans buying US debt out of fear that equities will not be able to sustain that move to the upside.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tlt.jpeg


Gold. Gold had another upside day. Bad news had everyone worried so they ran to gold. It closed through the 50 day EMA after attempting to do so the prior two sessions. Gold is making a steady climb. It still looks very toppy. Once again it is coming up to the all-important resistance level from the 2009 peak. Indeed it tapped at that level Friday and faded back. I still think gold will head back down, but for now it has having its oversold bounce.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg


Oil. Oil had a great week and was a bit overdone, so it had to pull back. There was some profit taking at the end of the week, and the jobs report gave a good excuse to dump some oil on fear that a weaker economy will demand less oil ($80.96, -1.05). It bounced off the 10 day EMA. A rather normal pullback from the oil market.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg


TECHNICAL PICTURE

INTERNALS

Volume. Volume was up 10% to 1.9B on the NASDAQ, and up 8% to 948M shares on the NYSE. Still very low trade, although it did eke higher to end the week. The volatility back and forth drove the volume a bit to the upside.

Breadth. Breadth did not tell us much. It was -1.4:1 on NASDAQ, and that matches exactly what happened with the market. The -1.2:1 on the NYSE again matched what happened in the market. It is not telling us anything that would amount to a hill of beans (as my father would say).


CHARTS

SP500. The SP500 tested down to the 18 day EMA on the low. It was quite the large range on the session with a low at 1107 and the high of 1123. That is significant for an intraday move for the SP500, and it did reverse to close back above the 200 day EMA. We still have the string of higher highs and higher lows in place, and it could slide back just a bit. The 18 day EMA is a very logical place for it to test (as it did on the low Friday) and then resume the move. What is the move? THE move is through the June peak at 1131 or even up to the January peak at 1151 (indeed, that is where it needs to go). That is a good 20 point range, and it is still 10 points away from the bottom of that range on the Friday close. It can go another 30 points from here and be looking very good. We will have to see, and this is the next important move. It is trying to set up and hold its gain, and it looks as if it wants to make the break to the upside. Bad news certainly did not deter it on Friday or any other day last week.

NASDAQ. NASDAQ is very similar. It tapped the 50 day EMA on the low and rallied back to close easily above the 200 day EMA. It also is dealing with its January peak and its June intraday high. It is taking aim at them with this pullback. We have seen this on other individual chart patterns: The flag, the break higher, and then another flag immediately thrown after that. It is okay if it holds at this 50 day EMA and can make the break higher. We will have to see what investors do. At this point we have taken nice gain off of the table, and we still have great positions in place if the market makes a break to the upside. If it does not, we can take them off because we have reduced our exposure with them. We can take the rest of the gain off the table and close the upside positions in trouble that we do not have gain built into. We are in a great position for an attempt of a breakout over the resistance. I am more than willing to let my positions ride as it makes that attempt. I will actually look at other positions to the upside; if it makes the breakout, we want to be in the game again. We will buy to add to our current positions and add to our brokerage account as stocks continue higher.

SP600. The SP600 was the laggard on the day down 0.7% but there was no damage done. It also gapped lower but then recovered off the 200 day EMA to close just over the 50 day EMA. There was a step down here, no real problem. If you want to really get interested in this, you can see a short ABCD pattern is set up. That is cool, but the target in an ABCD pattern is the height (the "A"). Here the "A" was at resistance back at the June peak, back at the gap points in May, and the March lateral consolidation. Even if it rallies from here, all you can expect for it is to get back to resistance. Again, with the SP600 as with the other large cap indices, we have to see how it handles that resistance. Nothing was answered with respect to breaking that resistance, but there were answers with respect the how resilient the market was. It was still maintaining its upside in the face of negative news.

SOX. The semiconductors held the 200 day EMA again. Still trying to make that higher low in the model of its range. We will see if it can make the break to the upside and actually clear the top of the range marked by the January peak. Chips lagged last week. They were laggards all week long, and now they are trying to find their footing. We will see if they can bounce back up and help the rest of the market to the upside.


LEADERSHIP

Financial. JPM fell back from the 200 day EMA. It was not ready to make the break through. GS edged back modestly. It is still in excellent shape as it continues its uptrend off of the July low.

Industrial. Industrials maintained their strength as well. CAT the back just a bit. It gave up some of the gain, but it was really strong although it is at its April peak. That is something to watch in case it runs out of gas and needs a bit more of a test. It has been basically straight up off of the June low, so we will have to watch out. It may come back and test. If there is a test, I have no real issues; we have taken some great gain off the table. If it tests back and holds support, I am looking somewhere around the mid-June peak, and this consolidation in July. It would be a great time to look at new positions for that stock. CMI is moving laterally after breaking out and trying to set up for the next move to the upside. DE is still moving higher, even posting a gain on Friday when most stocks were lower. Nothing runs like a deer.

Technology. AAPL is still trying to make the higher low above the 50 day EMA. It is smack in the middle of its lateral consolidation that started in April. It could make the breakout. If it does, I would be willing to look at new positions on AAPL. Speaking of positions, we saw GOOG set up the inverted head and shoulders and then break higher on Wednesday. Now it is testing. If it comes back and makes the test, it will set up a buying opportunity. EMC had a tough Friday, selling on high volume, but it is coming back to the April peak to test. If it can test and hold, that is very good.

Metals. FCX tried to break through the 200 day EMA and failed on the session. It was not the time, but I would not be surprised if it made that move next week. AKS looks like it is setting up to move higher. If you do not have positions, you might want to get some. STLD looks like it is trying to set up for a break higher to rally up and form the right side of its cup base. Near 1850 is the peak. It is near 15 right now. That gives you a good 20% move to the upside, just in stock positions, if it rallies up to the prior peak and completes the cup. That is not the too bad at all. SCHN looks like it is trying to make a break through something of a flag pattern. Volume was up, and it broke through the 200 day EMA.

Retail. PCLN had a great week, of course. Earnings were outstanding and it blasted off. There was the breakaway gap, and it continued higher. Now we look for it to test the breakaway gap, and then we will play new positions. The ultra aggressive could try to play the downside here. It has moved up tremendously the extension on the Fibonacci is tremendous, and it will pull back. You may see a doji Monday, and then you could play off that to the downside to come down and test the gap point. It gapped up to 272, and it is at 295 now. You have some room to play to the downside there if you are nimble and want to make that play. It is possible, but I will also look for it to come back, consolidate, set up the next break higher, and then play it again, Sam.

NFLX has come back from the dead, exploding higher on Friday after clawing its way back into its resistance range. It just put it to bed on Friday. ANF is over the 200 day EMA and moving laterally. It is trying to set up for the next break higher. M is still trying to put in a higher low and break to the upside over the 200 day EMA. BWLD had a great run off of the June and early July low. Now it is testing and coming back to the 18 day EMA. It fell back from the 200 day EMA and the gap point, but that is what you would expect. Long rally, made it to resistance a double layer at that and it is testing back. Now it will try to make the break through. It is around 4200. If it breaks through the 200 day EMA at 4257, then you have a run up to the gap point at 51. You have a decent rally that you could take advantage of and make some good coin on a break back through resistance.


There are still some interesting ideas in leadership, and stocks held their gains (as did the indices). That is a positive for the upside moving into next week, even though the indices still have to deal with their resistance from January and June.


THE ECONOMY

TO VIEW THE ECONOMY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:

http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/Economy.wmv


Jobs report a clinker. The positives are offset by the negatives.

Consumer Credit declines yet again, but it is slowing its drop.

Bonds are rally, gold is running because the Fed may be forced to print more money, buying treasuries.

ECRI leading indicators show a tick up: Not all is bad.



THE MARKET

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX. The VIX fell 0.3% on the session. It broke below the 200 day EMA over a week ago. It tried to rebound on that sharp selling one day, but now it is back down. People are worried. They say there is nothing but trouble ahead because it is breaking below these twin lows and is also breaking below these twin peaks. The VIX does not work that way, however. It can go down and make the lower lows while the market can continue higher for quite some time. It has done it for years on end at other times. If it falls back to the April levels, we may have an issue, but there is still quite a ways to go. Notice that it can slow down as it falls. It can continue with very small, tight days and tight ranges and not cover much ground. That means the market can go up for quite some time. I am not saying that is what will happen, but the VIX is not indicating anything adverse will happen to the rally.

VIX: 21.74; -0.36
VXN: 22.84; -0.43
VXO: 20.62; -0.73

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.92; -0.03

Bulls versus Bears:

Back to more bulls than bears, the 'normal' state of affairs for the market. This after a crossover and then a tie. A rare crossover a month back and it was, as s typical, a bullish scenario.

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 38.9%. Bulls edged higher on the week, up from 38.2% after a snappy rise from 35.6%. No more crossover, but that appears to have done the trick for at least the rally we are in now. Down from 56.0% on this leg's high. This move started at a low of 35.6% in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 33.3%. Steep drop from 34.9% after nudging over from 35.6% the prior week. Fell to 18.7% on the low. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. Over 35% is considered bullish for the market; definitely at the lower end of the scale. Peaked near 28% in November, falling short of the 35.6% hit in July 2009. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


NASDAQ

Stats: -4.59 points (-0.2%) to close at 2288.47
Volume: 1.919B (+9.31%)

Up Volume: 822.994M (+205.11M)
Down Volume: 1.001B (-101.97M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.44 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.98 to 1

New Highs: 42 (-13)
New Lows: 50 (+20)

NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg


SP500/NYSE

Stats: -4.17 points (-0.37%) to close at 1121.64
NYSE Volume: 948.776M (+8.38%)

Up Volume: 323.307M (-37.801M)
Down Volume: 609.783M (+101.722M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.18 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.35 to 1

New Highs: 302 (-18)
New Lows: 71 (+12)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg


DJ30

Stats: -21.42 points (-0.2%) to close at 10653.56
Volume DJ30: 155M shares Friday versus 139M shares Thursday.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg


MONDAY

The Friday jobs report was not the end-all of the economic data we will have to deal with. We start right off the bat Tuesday having to deal with productivity and unit labor costs, and then we have the FOMC rate decision that afternoon. It likely will not be any kind of decision, although it will be interesting to see what kind of dissent there was about keeping rates this low. As you know, some members want to start raising them even with the problems in the economy. You do not want deflation, and you do not want inflation the Fed does not have a lot of choices at this point. It has to keep printing money for now because the federal government wants to keep spending it. But that is another story.

Later in the week comes the usual initial jobless claims, and then at the end of the week there is the CPI, retail sales, and Michigan Sentiment. Kind of back-end loaded, but it is important. We do not have as many earnings out now. In August you still see earnings come out well through mid month it is no longer a one-month season anymore. It is pretty much around the clock, but it does have its ebb and flow. Right now, we have the gist of the data and are heading toward the end of the period, though there are still some important earnings coming out. Given where the indices are, you would think they would need some different news to push them. They have seen the bulk of the earnings reports, seen the big economic data, and the market has not sold off. Typically after earnings season, or midway through, the market will get tired and try to sell off. It did not do it this time. It tried to sell off Friday when the jobs report was less than expected. It managed a rebound and continued the theme of resilience and holding the gains.

It has done that thus far, but there is still that important resistance level from the January and June peaks that it has to deal with. The action on Friday suggests to wants to do that. It suggests the indices want to hold in this general range where they have moved laterally the last four sessions and make a renewed break to the upside to take out that resistance. I would be all for that, and we will see what happens. If it does try to make that move, I still see many stocks in position that have pulled back over the past few days. After all, the market moved laterally and pulled back some. These stocks that have led the move or made new breakouts have pulled back to test as well. We can use those pullbacks to move in and pick up some more positions. If we will get the breakout, that is exactly what we want to do. We want to move in with upside plays and play a further rally. We may pick up additional positions on stocks we already own interest in. No problem with that. If they are coming back to a logical buy point and everything still looks good, we will pick up some more in a proven winner versus going out on a limb with a newbie that may not treat you the same way.

We may see a great stock set up that was missed because it gapped away from us or for other reasons (I do not want to say I was asleep at the wheel or one of the traders here did not pick up on it). For whatever reason a buy may have been missed, a little pullback gives new buying opportunity. Remember to never give up on a gap. Never give up on a good stock in position just because it moves away from you. You typically get a second chance to come in and pick up your position. We will look for those as well.

At the same time, we need a few downside plays in our pocket just in case the January and June peaks hold and force the market back down. The sellers could jump back on, push the indices down, and try to get them down into the range of the May or June lows. If that happens, it happens. This market is still basing and trying to move through the pullback and set up a stronger run higher. It has to anticipate that the economy will move higher. Frankly, the economic data does not give one that impression. It makes me wonder what the market is moving on. Is it anticipating a November turnover in the House and Senate? That could very well be what it is building in. If that is true, it may be counting its chickens a bit early, but we will have to see. We will always play what the market tells us versus our conjecture about why it is doing something or what will cause it to do something else.

We will look for upside and be ready with some downside as well. The market is showing great resilience, but it still has to handle those resistance points and has not taken them out yet. Next week we will see what happens with that resistance, and we will take whatever the market gives. We will take our plays the direction it wants us to go. Have a great weekend.


Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2288.47

Resistance:
2292 is a low from January 2008
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2341 is the June 2010 peak
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2382-2395 from 2008

Support:
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
The 200 day SMA at 2266
The 50 day EMA at 2255
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
2221 is the gap down upside point from June.
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2184 is the June gap bottom side.
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2100 is the February 2010 low
2024 from November 2009
2020 to 2005 from the Q4 2009 peaks


S&P 500: Closed at 1121.64
Resistance:
1131 is the June 2010 peak
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008

Support:

1119 is the early December intraday high
The 200 day SMA at 1115
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1106 is the September 2008 low
1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks
The 50 day EMA at 1099
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1040 is the May 2010 low
1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation
946 from June 2009


Dow: Closed at 10,653.56
Resistance:
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak

Support:
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,594 is the June 2010 peak
10,496 is the November 2009 high
The 200 day SMA at 10,427
The 50 day EMA at 10,370
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low
9325 is a late 2008 interim peak
9034 from early 2009 peaks


Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

August 02 - Monday
Construction Spending, June (10:00): 0.1% actual versus -0.8% expected, -1.0% prior (revised from -0.2%)
ISM Index, July (10:00): 55.5 actual versus 54.2 expected, 56.2 prior

August 03 - Tuesday
Personal Income, June (08:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior (revised from 0.4%)
Personal Spending, June (08:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.0% expected, 0.1% prior (revised from 0.2%)
PCE Prices - Core, June (08:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior (revised from 0.2%)
Factory Orders, June (10:00): -1.2% actual versus -0.5% expected, -1.8% prior (revised from -1.4%)
Pending Home Sales, June (10:00): -2.6% actual versus -5.0% expected, -29.9% prior (revised from -30.0%)
Auto Sales, July (14:00): 4.0M expected, 3.70M prior
Truck Sales, July (14:00): 5.0M expected, 4.8M prior

August 04 - Wednesday
ADP Employment Change, July (08:15): 42K actual versus 25K expected, 19K prior (revised from 13K)
ISM Services, July (10:00): 54.3 actual versus 53.0 expected, 53.8 prior
Crude Inventories, 07/31 (10:30): -2.78M actual versus 7.31M prior

August 05 - Thursday
Continuing Claims, 07/24 (08:30): 4537K actual versus 4530K expected, 4571K prior (revised from 4565K)
Initial Claims, 07/31 (08:30): 479K actual versus 455K expected, 460K prior (revised from 457K)

August 06 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, July (08:30): -131K actual versus -87K expected, -221K prior (revised from -125K)
Nonfarm Payrolls - P, July (08:30): 71K actual versus 83K expected, 31K prior (revised from 83K)
Unemployment Rate, July (08:30): 9.5% actual versus 9.6% expected, 9.5% prior
Hourly Earnings, July (08:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior (revised from -0.1%)
Average Workweek, July (08:30): 34.2 actual versus 34.1 expected, 34.1 prior
Consumer Credit, June (15:00): -$1.3B actual versus -$5.7B expected, -$5.3B prior (revised from -$9.1B)

August 10 - Tuesday
Productivity-Preliminary, Q2 (08:30): 0.1% expected, 2.8% prior
Unit Labor Costs, Q2 (08:30): 1.4% expected, -1.3% prior
Wholesale Inventories, June (10:00): 0.4% expected, 0.5% prior
FOMC Rate Decision, August 10 (14:15): 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior

August 11 - Wednesday
Trade Balance, June (08:30): -$42.5B expected, -42.3B prior
Crude Inventories, 08/07 (10:30): -2.78M prior
Treasury Budget, July (14:00): -$169.0B expected, -$180.7B prior

August 12 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 08/07 (08:30): 465K expected, 479K prior
Continuing Claims, 07/31 (08:30): 4550K expected, 4537K prior
Export Prices ex-ag., July (08:30): -0.2% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, July (08:30): -0.6% prior

August 13 - Friday
CPI, July (08:30): 0.2% expected, -0.1% prior
Core CPI, July (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Retail Sales, July (08:30): 0.5% expected, -0.5% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, July (08:30): 0.2% expected, -0.1% prior
Michigan Sentiment, August (09:55): 70.0 expected, 67.80 prior
Business Inventories, June (10:00): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2010 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com

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