Sunday, September 26, 2010

1-2-3 Boom! as Stocks Blast Higher

SUMMARY:
- 1-2-3 boom. Stocks blast higher after pullback.
- It's Germany! It's durable goods! It's a famous head fund manager now buying stocks! No, it's a technical move.
- SP500 and other indices surge back, financial help or not.
- Plenty of negatives to help drive stocks upside: when the individual investors says the market is rigged and quits, you have hit bottom.
- Too much news this week, but focus on technical picture and new leaders.

Three down, big one up.

Friday was a session where the analysts and experts on financial stations were trying to play "pin the tail on the rally catalyst." There were many juicy stories for them to choose from. One story was that German business sentiment was better. Surely that is enough reason for the US stock market to surge 2% higher. It could be that the government in Germany has cut government spending by $100B, or it could be that tax rates on corporations in Germany have gone down 22% over the last 10 years. Those are great stories. They would be great in the US and probably help our market even more. There was also a report out in durable goods for August. While the headline was not great, the ex-transportation (where you carve out all of the airplanes) was very solid, vaulting to a 2% gain versus a 2.8% loss in July. It was only expected to rise 0.6%, so that was a substantial move indeed, and also July was revised from -3.7%. To top it all off, there was very good business equipment spending. That is not a bad reason either.

A famed hedge fund manager who had called the housing problem was talking with financial stations on Friday morning and saying that he was buying stocks. He said they were going up because gold and bonds are topping out. Futures jumped a bit on that, but futures were up already. They were not rallying on the durables or Germany. German business confidence was not enough to get Germany and its stock market rallying, so why would it have been a catalyst for the US rally? It does not make a lot of sense. Europe was down, and it was the US that started pulling it back with its strong futures.

Looking at the intraday chart of the SPY, the futures were up early. There was a gap, a quick test, and then it was off to the races for the rest of the day. NASDAQ +2.3%, SP500 +2.2%, Dow +1.9%, SP600 +3.4%, SOX +4%, and NASDAQ 100 +2%. It was that kind of day. A big start and a big finish. Again, you have to ask yourself, what was the reason? Was it the good reports out in the morning? Or was it the reports later in the day like the August new home sales that came out at 288K versus the 291K expected? It was the third lowest on record. That probably was not the catalyst.

What about what I have been talking about for the last three days? It could not be more than that; we've had the 1-2-3 pullback to test the breakout that occurred Monday. There was the break over resistance, and then the 1-2-3 pullback that often occurs when a stock or index breaks out. Then things were set and, boom, back to the upside. Maybe some of these stories acted as a trigger to help get it going, but it was obviously ready for the move. Everyone is always trying to figure out why the market is moving. They look at stories of the day to see what is driving stocks. Those can cause minor movements, but they will not cause major trend movements. What we have is a technical trend movement because there is a breakout from the range, a test of that and it was the orderly, short kind of test that shows continued momentum. Kind of like a test of the 28% Fibonacci retracement showing continued upside momentum.

I had my reservations, no doubt. I was worried the financials would not support the move, and they were not that great on Friday. JPM managed to rise 1.6%, as did GS, but the moves were not spectacular. They are still ugly patterns, and they have tumbled down over the last few sessions. Without the major support of the financials, SP500 managed to rally right back up to that January peak at 1151. It is testing it, knocking on the door. The question is whether it will just knock on it, beat on it, or is it going to, as Bum Phillips said, "kick the son of a bitch in" ? Well, I hope it does the latter. Bum Phillips and the Houston Oilers never were able to beat Pittsburg in the championship game and move onto the Superbowl; I only hope the SP500 has more success. Stocks were up but other markets were not necessarily moving higher.


OTHER MARKETS

There is a theme at work right now, and there is somewhat of a divergence among some of the players. There are the inflation stocks showing inflation: dollar lower, gold higher, and bonds have been moving back up. They are out of whack. There are stocks moving up. Not really an inflation play, but they are playing more of the Fed and its quantitative easeing door-opening from the Tuesday FOMC meeting. Oil cannot decide what the hell to do, so it is sitting in the middle of its range.

Dollar. It was another sharp downside day for the dollar, and the key thing to note is that it broke below the early 2010 lows. It has cracked a new low for the year (1.3492 Euro versus 1.3321 Thursday). Very ugly week and a half on the dollar. It rolled over with a short umbrella top and is now diving below these lows. Will it go lower? Beware the false breakdown but, given the action in gold and other markets, the dollar is pricing in inflation. Indeed, our government wants to inflate our way out of the deficit. It is actually fostering the inflation and the devaluation of our currency.

As I have said before, no country has ever devalued its way to prosperity. We will create inflation, and we will create stagflation if we continue on this path. We are going down the 70's path, which was a slight variation from the 1930's path. Unfortunately, the results are going to be just slight variations as well, and not the return to growth after we just finished the summer of recovery in the United States. Unemployment staying below 8%? The summer of recovery did not quite happen. Kind of like the summer of love in San Francisco when George Harrison just found out that all the kids were dirty and slovenly. Not the real love and peace we were looking for. Talk to most anyone in this economy outside of the big corporate execs that got stimulus money and they are not exactly finding love and peace either. Now it is fall. The fall of false hope? It is election year, so that would make sense.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg


Bonds. While the dollar was getting hammered, bond yields actually rallied. Bonds sold off. Bonds had rebounded sharply this week, but closed out the weak with a decline (10 year 2.61% versus 2.54% yield). Bonds sold, and that drove yields higher on Friday. You would expect bonds to sell in an inflation environment. Bonds have been rallying, but they have rallied and they sold off. Now we will see what happens. Do we get something of an ABCD pattern? We will have to watch what develops over the next several weeks to see if there is a consolidation that continues higher. That would be an anomaly with the gold play hitting new highs. We may get a rollover that breaks down, which would be more what I would expect if there was an inflation play ahead.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tlt.jpeg


Gold. Gold hit a new all-time high ($1,297.70, +1.40). It hit an all-time high of $1,299.70 on the session, but it backed off on the close. Gold is showing a remarkable rally to the upside. Over time, that means one thing. In the short term it can be fear, but when you start putting this kind of move in, you have inflation in the long run. How much inflation? Are we talking hyper-inflation or the old Jimmy Carter kind of misery-index inflation? 14% or 15%, no big deal. There is inflation coming, as gold is telling us what is happening.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg


Oil. Oil was up on Friday, but it was still milling around. Nice day for oil on the session ($77.63, +2.45). Strong move, but still trading in the middle of its range. It cannot decide if the economy is going to get better in the US and in the world, or if it will be gutted by inflation and other issues facing the world economies. Oil is playing it safe and going nowhere for now.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg


TECHNICAL SUMMARY

INTERNALS

Volume. Volume was up 12.5% on the NYSE, ticking past 1B shares. As you can see, that volume pushed NYSE trade above average, and that is a good indication. I am looking at the NYSE, and it is breaking higher off the test of the breakout. Very strong and solid. It is clearing the resistance, looking for a move up to those April peaks.

Breadth. It was tremendous breadth, up 4:1 on the NASDAQ, and up 4.8:1 on the NYSE, advancers over decliners. Volume rallied as well up 4% to 1.95B on NASDAQ. Not a huge gain, not a 2B+ session, so it was not a runaway volume session.


CHARTS

SP500. SP500 bounced up off the 1-2-3 test after breaking over 1131. It rallied up to 1148.7 on the high, just off of the 1151 January peak. That will be the next important level for the index. It has to get through that level. Then there are interim problems along the way, but that makes significant higher lows, higher highs, and it puts that April peak in the gun sights for a move higher.

NASDAQ. NASDAQ was equally impressive with a 2.3% gain. It gapped to the upside after its own 1-2-3 test back to the 10 day EMA and prior support peaks. Great move, strong break. Volume edged higher. Not terrifically strong volume, but moving well nonetheless. AAPL is a bit extended, so I wonder how far NASDAQ can move. It has a lot of other stocks not nearly as extended as AAPL, however, ready to come up and push to the upside.

SP600. SP600 had a very solid 3.4% gain. With all that flash and all that substance, it is not even back up to its June or July peaks. Just getting there, and it could break out. It should break out if the other indices continue higher. No problem with that, but it has to show it. We really need to see the small caps start getting it together and moving into the lead. They were relative strength leaders on Friday, but they were not price leaders in terms of making breakouts or continuing a breakout.

SOX. SOX put in a strong 4% move, and it broke back into its range. I have been wondering if it would do that. It kept bumping its head, looking as if it would try, and it finally did. Now we see if it can make the move and make it stick. It is moving, so how sticky will it be? It looks solid thus far.


LEADERSHIP

Financial. Financials were not that great. JPM was up but still a sorry pattern. GS up as well, and also a sorry pattern after being quite good. WFC is gapping back up, but it gapped back up to near resistance. That sharp move lower is very telling with respect to the financials this week. WFC was trying to fill the gap, and that is about all it did. It could not go further, and that was disappointing. SP500 is moving without them, but how long can it do that?

Industrials. CAT is soaring, taking off on high volume and resuming an already-strong move and showing high volume as it does. DE gapped higher. Not a huge move for it, but it is still quite strong. The industrials are moving very well.

Metals. The chief metal of industrials is copper. FCX is now challenging the April peak with a gap higher. There was not any volume on it, and it closed off the high. It may need to test because it has come up, made a rally up to the prior peak, and it has no volume behind this rally whatsoever. You can see what happened to it last time it rallied to a peak with no volume. It turned over and disgorged a lot of those gains. We could see something similar this time, although that would take something of a concern about the world economy to lead into that kind of selling. You know what they say: The world's economies have a copper roof. If copper tanks that means outlook is not good.

Then again, the world recovery is mixed. Some countries are very strong and some are not. Case in point, the US. In any event, copper has made an important move, and it will be very interesting to see how it tests back from here. Looking at other metals, I wonder why copper is moving. They do not look that great. MTL is a great pattern, but it has not moved much. AKS had a good pattern set up, but it is just not moving. That is one of the problems we have with other metals. Copper is running higher, but it is likely on speculation and it is all in the name FCX. The other copper plays are not moving higher, and that is interesting. It is more like a lot of money chasing one particular copper stock versus chasing the entire sector higher.

Technology. AAPL will not quit. It gapped higher yet again, this time to a doji. Maybe it fades back a bit and we could make a call sale off of this. Maybe or maybe not. It has just been incredibly strong. Every time it looks like it it is going to stall, it just rallies some more. BIDU gapped higher, continuing the strong run. Really strong. AKAM not that strong. It is struggling to hang on and trying to right the ship and keep the trend going after bouncing off the 18 day EMA Wednesday. FFIV gapped back up after bouncing on Thursday. It is still struggling at that recent high, however, and volume has not been that great the past week. Techs look good overall, but there are some issues in some of the leaders. We know that. They have been running so hard for so long that they need a bit of a break.

Retail. What a great day for some of the retail stocks. COST exploded higher, taking a strong move and making it even stronger. URBN was not a bad move. Gapped higher, not great volume, but it was a good start to a test of a break of the trendline. NFLX had a great week, gapping higher and rallying on Friday. It could not hold all of the move, but it is still to the upside. PII had a breakout from the trading range. We were trading this trading range, and we took some gain up here. Then, as always, we left some on the table because we look for this pullback inside the trading range. If you get a higher low in the trading range, that often presages a breakout itself. That is exactly what we got. We left some on the table, and now we are reaping the reward for that.

It is hard to guess where the tops are. We had a good, educated guess that there would be resistance there, and sure enough it found it. We banked some gain just in case it sold off and did not come back, but it did. Now it is breaking out and we are going to make even more money. You have to love that. AMZN, like AAPL, is just a runaway freight train to the upside. It gapped higher and surged over 5% on Friday alone with rising above-average volume. Indeed, the best volume in two months. It has been awhile since there has been volume like this, and it came add an appropriate time as the stock blew past the April peak. You cannot sustain this kind of move forever; if there is a little more upside that starts to close off the high, then pocket some of those gains, at least on your options. You will have a very healthy gain built in.

Summary. There are leaders moving to the upside, but a lot of them are leaders that have been moving already. They have been up, so just a further move is no big deal for them. Well, it is, but it does not give us a point to buy into. We have to look elsewhere, and the rally is trying to spread out. Some stocks that have tested back started back up. BCSI is starting back up, and FSLR starting back up after its test. JEC has not surged like others, but it is starting up, making higher lows and looking good. It is one that is building into a break to the upside. The leadership that started this rally is extended. It will want to pull back, and there will need to be other areas that take the torch and rally higher as they test. Stocks such as JEC look to be ready to do that.


THE MARKET

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX. Volatility sliced lower on the Friday gain. It did not slice through the recent lows; indeed, it is very much at the lows and key support areas carved out since mid-April. There has been no major break by volatility. If this trends holds, then the market would sell and volatility would rally back up. That is what I was looking for this break to downside, gapping from the Thursday gap to the upside. That is a little island reversal. It did not occur in the extreme, however, so it does not mean a lot. Volatility is still at this level, so it is still not a done deal that the market rallies from here. From a technical position, without considering the volatility, it certainly looks ready to move to the upside.

VIX: 21.71; -2.16
VXN: 22.72; -1.54
VXO: 20.39; -2.36

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.84; -0.1


Bulls versus Bears:

The CROSSOVER from the prior week reverted, but the bulls and bears are still close together. That crossover is a bullish indicator, and the market has rallied off of it. Question is, did it generate the momentum for a range breakout?

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 41.4% versus 36.7%. Continuing to jump higher 4 to 5 points a week for the past month. Investment advisors are getting more bullish but the investors they are advising are not, and without their money, not as much ammunition. We will see if this rally drags more money back to the stock market. Back above the 35% threshold, below which is considered a bullish indicator. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 29.3% versus 31.1%. Falling back below 30% for the first time in four month, continuing the decline from 37.7% four weeks back. Further below the 35% level, above which is considered bullish. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


NASDAQ

Stats: +54.14 points (+2.33%) to close at 2381.22
Volume: 1.948B (+4.06%)

Up Volume: 1.777B (+1.016B)
Down Volume: 245.471M (-928.653M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 4.11 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.94 to 1

New Highs: 133 (+70)
New Lows: 20 (-21)


SP500/NYSE

Stats: +23.84 points (+2.12%) to close at 1148.67
NYSE Volume: 1.067B (+12.61%)

Up Volume: 957.967M (+722.932M)
Down Volume: 107.517M (-599.091M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 4.77 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.34 to 1

New Highs: 296 (+109)
New Lows: 8 (-10)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg


DJ30

Stats: +197.84 points (+1.86%) to close at 10860.26
Volume DJ30: 179M shares Friday versus.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg


MONDAY

There is too much information to deal with, but it fortunately does not start until Tuesday. There is the Case-Shiller Home Price Index plus consumer confidence for September. Wednesday it takes a day off. On Thursday we get the third estimate of Q2 GDP, as well as your usual initial claims. Then we get Chicago PMI the day before the overall national manufacturing index. We also get some University consumer sentiment on Friday as well as well as personal income and spending. That is always important. There is a ton of data out there as we move into October. October is earnings season, and we will be coming into warning season. If we are going to see anything bad, we will start seeing it come out. There was some decent news on earnings on Thursday night and Friday morning with a very nice posting by NKE and a nice gain by the stock as well.

There is a lot of data next week. As we saw on Friday, that can act as a trigger, but it is typically not what really moves the market. Things are set up well in advance, and then they act as triggers. What we saw today was just being triggered for a move higher. That was already set up, and it is a technical move. In the coming week, we are looking for whether the SP500 can break through 1151 the January peak and hold that move. That is a logical thing for it to do given the 1-2-3 test after the breakout and a continued surge higher on Friday. We will look for a continued move to the upside.

Not all stocks are overextended after Friday. As I showed with some of the leader plays, there are developing leaders right now not just stocks that have rallied and rallied and are extended. Rallies are sustained by new waves of leaders coming to the fore after forming up good bases and breaking higher. They do not all do it at once. It takes time. Money rotates through the market from one sector to the next. There are some very extended plays. AAPL has a lot of extension. It is up at the 127% Fibonacci extension, just so happens. Often a stock will rally there and pull back some. When the tech leaders that have made huge moves (AAPL, AKAM, FFIV) they will pull back. They are going to consolidate, and we just have to see if the run is over. If they roll over and break, likely not. They pull back and test and consolidate some, but while they are doing that and some of the profit-taking money leaves them, it goes out in search of other areas to plant itself and raise stock prices.

We just keep looking for other areas that are getting money thrown to them, and that is where you find good patterns with good stocks. If they are ready to move and have a good risk/reward, we can look to play those. They are still setting up, but you will see them. BCSI is one that set up again, and it already has made a good move. There are others that will be going doing the same. We will keep seeking those out and putting money to work with the market move. We bought today, no secret there. It was a pretty diverse group of stocks we picked up, but that is what a recovery rebound is all about. A lot of different sectors start pitching in and making the rally whole versus just a few sectors that are keeping the market alive. Now other areas are getting some money thrown their way and are starting to make some headway. I am going to look at those for next week as we continue to watch the market move higher.

As for existing positions, we will let them run as well. We did not take much gain on Friday. We could have because the move was a renewed break to the upside after that 1-2-3 pullback. When you see something like that, you know that there is underlying strength and more upside to come. We will let our winners run further and build in those tremendous gains where you start seeing the triple-digit runs on options. That is a good feeling and very good for your bank account. If we have a rally on into the year, at this rate we will all be buying really nice stuff for Christmas, recession or not.

That is one of the interesting things, looking out. What is driving this? Is it if fact that the US economy is going to be so strong? I do not think that is it. It does not look like it will be strong, but you never know. When things are as dark as they are, you cannot tell when the bottom is hit. It just does not feel like the bottom has hit because everyone I talk to in smaller businesses is having a very tough go of it. Usually you can feel a recovery gelling when the small companies start pulling together and start feeing good about the future. None of them fool good about the future right now.. It is not just bad gut feelings they are not doing anything. You have healthcare hanging out there, you have tax increases that could come. That is put off until after the election, so there is a lot of uncertainty remaining, and that keeps a lot of small businesses from investing their resources. That is not a good thing for the future. Why would the market rally? There are elections in the fall, and there is anticipation that that could go republican, at least in the House. That could stymie the unfettered advance of what some consider socialism, and other policies that are not particularly conducive to a good economy in the US.

There are also a lot of negatives in the stock market. We have heard for the past several months how much money has flowed out of mutual funds stock mutual funds moving to bond funds or gold funds. When pessimism is at such high levels, that is typically when stocks starts tremendous runs. All the sellers are out of the market. They have said to hell with it and are going elsewhere. Now we hear that the fund managers have come back from the Labor Day holiday and are behind on the rally. Remember, this rally started back in August and they are behind. They did not get back until this week, and now they are playing catch up. They are saying they have to buy. That could be a catalyst to keep things going upside into the Q4 as they chase performance higher.

Then you have the individuals that have been pouring all their money into bond funds and gold funds. If stocks continue to rise and continue to show good gains since most of the sellers are already out of the market any new people coming in will only work to drive stocks higher. That is what I mean. You get all the pessimists out of there. They have given up, and this is truly a market where the small guy has left for the most part. We are making great money in it, but a lot of people are not there anymore. After that May 6th flash crash, they figured it was rigged and they could not get in. That is the way it always is at a bottom. Small investors feel the market is rigged, and they give up and think, "I cannot win this game because it is just the big boys playing with computers. You can't beat a computer." They get out just at the time the market starts to rally because all the sellers are then out. That is one of the key contrary indicators.

It does not matter if the big boys are playing with computers are not. If you are smart, you did not put a bunch of stop losses in on May 6th. We just mind our stops, and we do not put market orders in and get stopped out. You have to be smart about it, or you get your head cut off and handed back to you. If you do not have your stop losses in, you saw it go down, and you saw it recover just as fast and were buying as I was. Use your head and you can play with the big boys. This little rally did not require much expertise here at all. You can recognize it was the bottom the volume came up as it was testing these lows, and it started back up. There were stocks ready to move back up. We were ready to buy them, we did, and they rallied and we made a ton of money. FFIV, AGU, AKAM, AAPL, AMZN great stocks that have moved tremendously. There are a plethora of them.

It did not take a lot of computer-aided power to figure out this move and make money off of it. The point is we have a lot of disbelievers still in the market. We have fund managers that want to catch up because this market is moving higher. Then we will have some individuals saying, "Hell, that thing is going up. I will put some money there." You got money coming back in that has been leaving for a long time, and it is not leaving Las Vegas. This is is not Las Vegas this is the stock market. If you are smart, you can make money. I still think there are catalysts to the upside now that it has made the breakout. As we see leadership continuing to improve, we are going to play it to the upside.

Have a great weekend!


Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2381.22

Resistance:
2382-2395 from 2008
2425 is an interim peak from May 2010
2530 is the April 2010 peak (2535.28 intraday)

Support:
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2341 is the June 2010 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2310 is the August 2010 peak
2292 is a low from January 2008
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
The 200 day SMA at 2280
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows. Key lows.
The 50 day EMA at 2252
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
2236 is the first August gap point.
A series of interim peaks at 2230ish from the May to August trading range
2221 is the gap down upside point from June.
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2184 is the June gap bottom side.
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2155 is the August 2010 low and the March 2008 intraday low
2151 is the Tuesday gap down point
2140 from the May and June 2010 lows
2100 is the February 2010 low
2099 is the recent August intraday low


S&P 500: Closed at 1148.67
Resistance:

1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008

Support:

1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1129 to 1131 is the June and August 2010 peaks
1119 is the early December intraday high
The 200 day SMA at 1117
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1106 is the September 2008 low
The 50 day EMA at 1103
1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010. Important level.
1065 is the May flash crash intraday low.
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1039 to 1040 are the May, June, and August 2010 lows


Dow: Closed at 10,860.26
Resistance:
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak

Support:
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,594 is the June 2010 peak
10,496 is the November 2009 high
The 200 day SMA at 10,465
The 50 day EMA at 10,435
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks are breaking
10,209 is recent August 2010 low
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low


Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

September 24 - Friday
Durable Orders, August (08:30): -1.3% actual versus -1.4% expected, 0.7% prior (revised from 0.4%)
Durable Orders -ex T, August (08:30): 2.0% actual versus 0.6% expected, -2.8% prior (revised from -3.7%)
New Home Sales, August (10:00): 288K actual versus 291K expected, 288K prior (revised from 276K)

September 28 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, July (09:00): 3.4% expected, 4.23% prior
Consumer Confidence, September (10:00): 52.9 expected, 53.5 prior

September 29 - Wednesday
Crude Inventories, 09/25 (10:30): 0.970M prior

September 30 - Thursday
GDP - Third Estimate, Q2 (08:30): 1.6% expected, 1.6% prior
GDP - Deflator, Q2 (08:30): 1.9% expected, 1.9% prior
Initial Claims, 09/25 (08:30): 457K expected, 465K prior
Continuing Claims, 09/18 (08:30): 4450K expected, 4489K prior
Chicago PMI, September (09:45): 56.0 expected, 56.7 prior

October 01 - Friday
Personal Income, August (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.2% prior
Personal Spending, August (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior
PCE Prices - Core, August (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
U Michigan Consumer , September (09:55): 67.1 expected, 66.6 prior
Construction Spending, August (10:00): -0.5% expected, -1.0% prior
ISM Index, September (10:00): 54.5 expected, 56.3 prior
Auto Sales, September (14:00): 3.8M expected, 3.7M prior
Truck Sales, September (14:00): 4.9M expected, 4.96M prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2010 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com

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Sunday, September 19, 2010

What Will Fed Do At Tuesday Meeting

SUMMARY:
- Still in the trading range but with an interesting twist on SP500 and NASDAQ .
- NASDAQ, SP500 tap resistance, show doji at the top of the range.
- CPI flat on the core, leaving one to wonder what the Fed will do at its Tuesday meeting.
- Michigan Sentiment misses expectations and falls to a one year low.
- Leadership has improved, but enough for a breakout?
- The doji may suggest another pullback, but at this stage in the trading range be watching for a higher low at key support as a portent to a range breakout.

We have seen this action before, but this time it is later in the trading range.

It was another day in the trading range for the indices, but it was not an insignificant day. It was expiration Friday so volume was up marginally, but that was not the real story. The story was that both SP500 and NASDAQ bounced up and tested a key resistance level. SP500 bounced up to the 1131 resistance, which is the bottom of its January trading range. Back in December and January, there was a lateral move where the SP500 peaked. Since its selloff that started in April, it has been unable to break above that level again. NASDAQ is showing some of the same action. It has rallied up to its January peak which is roughly matching the August and June peaks. The interesting feature was that both gapped higher, tapped that resistance level, and could not go any further. The NASDAQ showing something of a hangman or hammer doji at that level, while the SP500 is showing something of an evening star doji at that level.

Is that dispositive? Not in and of itself. In the past there have been doji at resistance that did not lead to anything. As you look in August, the last of the lateral move led to the selloff to the bottom of the range. In June there was the big reach higher and a doji that led to the selloff all the way down to the July low. These are symbols that you have to watch at the top and bottom of a range. After the selloff, there is a doji and a bounce, then another doji and a bounce. Coming into the August low, there is one doji, and then back and forth sessions, and then another that led to the move to the upside. The point is that the indices did not break out of their ranges. They did finish positive on the day. The chart shows that they were up across the board NASDAQ 0.5% , SP500 flat, Dow 0.1%, SP600 0.5%, SOX flat, NASDAQ 100 0.4%. The indices were up on the session, but they tapped important resistance and showed a candlestick pattern that suggests they could roll back over. That is not dispositive, but it was interesting enough for us to start some SSO put positions. In other words, looking to play the move down.

It may not do it. There is still plenty of leadership that could break the market to the upside. Industrials had a very good day. Financials were down, but they did not have a terrible day. Technology continues to look solid. They could bounce right up from here. They could test, and then bounce after making a higher low at the 18 day EMA or the 50 day EMA. Or they could roll over and sell all the way to the bottom of the range again. They have not answered the question, but Friday was interesting with this candlestick pattern as noted. Maybe it was just an expiration Friday thing, but it is something that you have to note and be ready for in the event it is signaling a selloff. We have been taking gain off the table over the last several sessions as the indices rallied higher and then started to move laterally at that resistance. That was the game plan. We have banked a lot of gain. We have taken some new positions to the upside as well as the downside as we wait for the market to show us its next move. We are well positioned. If it continues higher, we have great positions in place and more to take. If it turns over, we have already banked a lot of gain and we can quickly get out of other positions and play the downside. We are still in the range. Nothing was decided this week, but it is getting more interesting.

Stocks were ready to start the day to the upside thanks to the ORCL and RIMM earnings released Thursday after the bell. It also got the boost from TXN that increased its dividend as well as its buyback. It is interesting to note that TXN's buyback plans, with this additional buyback announced, is roughly equal to the float of the stock. That tells you that buybacks really are not that meaningful as to whether the company will make the buybacks. It is meaningful as to the perception of the stock. We saw buyback announcements all week that helped boost stocks higher. It is like splits do at times. When they get the announcement, it may not mean a lot in terms of what will happen to the shares themselves, but the perception is a bullish one and it helps stock prices.

This helped offset some less-than-spectacular economic data. The CPI came in with a 0.3% gain, topping the 0.2% expected and matching the 0.3% gain in July. The core, however, was flat versus an anticipated 0.1% gain that would match the July 0.1% gain. Food and energy were to the upside. Michigan Sentiment was a disappointment. It came in at 66.6 for September versus 70 expected. That was expected to rise from 68.9 in August. Lower gasoline prices and better hourly earnings did not do the trick for those in Michigan as it did for the Conference Board's consumer confidence indication released earlier in the week.

Stocks initially started higher, but they rolled over immediately as the session got underway. Indeed, they turned to negative and bounced on the sentiment news. Apparently there were fears it would be worse than it actually was. Stocks recovered to positive, moved laterally into the close and hanging on for that modest gain to end the week. Of course this action on SP500 resulted in a doji on the candlestick chart as it bumped 1131 and was never able to get back to that level on the day. NASDAQ started out at its high as well. It sold off and made a series of higher lows through the remainder of the session, forming something of an ascending triangle. It ran out of time for a breakout, although it looked like it would give us one with an hour and a half in the session. That rolled over and it trailed off with very modest gains.


OTHER MARKETS

Dollar. The dollar managed to recover some ground, though it was sharply lower for the week. A quick selloff early in the week, then moving laterally at a support level at the top of the February and March range. It was holding that and trying to put in a higher low for a new bounce (1.3042 Euro versus 1.3078 Thursday). It was a week where the dollar struggled against the Euro and other currencies, even though the Japanese government intervened in its currency market, selling Yen in order to drive the price of the Yen lower. The dollar did not have a good week, but now we will see if it can hold after coming back and testing the support I anticipated it would test.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg


Bonds. Bonds finished a bit stronger on the session (10 year 2.74% versus 2.76% Thursday), but they were down for the week. We have had a dramatic run higher, a selloff, and an important gap lower on Thursday. Then a modest rally on Friday that did not alter the break of this important support level. I still anticipate bonds to roll over and fall further next week toward the support level marked by the July and August lows (not to mention the May and June peaks).

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tlt.jpeg


Gold. Gold had a big week. It appears to be pricing in some inflation, and it had a strong surge early in the week that it maintained through the end of the week. It was not a strong push to close out the action, however. A doji on Friday, but it was still to the upside ($1,278, +4.20). Still an all-time high for the yellow metal, and that indicates inflation anticipated despite an unchanged reading in the core CPI for August. Gold is anticipating inflation. It doesn't rise with inflation; just as any market, it anticipates what is coming and moves in advance. Even though the US inflation indicators are minimal and many fear deflation, with all of the money printing, there could be a quick spike in inflation.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg


Oil. The world cannot work without oil, but it was having a hard week. Are world economies recovering? Maybe, maybe not. In Ireland there was a big worry on Friday as its credit default swaps hit all-time highs in pricing. That means the prices are soaring for insuring the debt in Ireland. They exploded higher in the US and generally around the world in September of 2008 as the financial/credit crisis expanded. Credit default swap premiums jumped over thousands of percent in just a matter of days, indicating the rapidly accelerating fears with respect to defaults by sovereign entities (and many of the larger financial institutions). Ireland is showing record default swaps now, and this is after the 2008 crisis. Something does not smell right in the EU. I had said that something was wrong, and it was probably something in Europe that would result most likely in some form of sovereign debt default from one of the PIIGS. It looks like Ireland is the poster child for that, although it could come from any of the PIIGS. In any event, oil is sniffing that way as well. It finished lower once more ($73.66, -0.84).

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg


TECHNICAL SUMMARY

INTERNALS

Volume. Volume ramped up 35% to 0.3B on NASDAQ, and that was thanks to expiration Friday no doubt. Volume also increased on the NYSE, exploding higher to 1.8B shares, up over 100%. Again, that is thanks to expiration Friday. There were few fireworks during the week, so they all showed up on Friday. Since it was quadruple witching expiration, the added volume is understandable.

Breadth. Breadth was a 1.4:1 NASDAQ and 1.4:1 on the NYSE. Given that the indices are basically flat, you can say that was a positive and things were better. Indeed, the SP600 posted a gain versus losses -- relatively stronger than the other indices, for that matter -- and that helped push that breadth higher. It really does not tell us anything given the other indications in the market.


CHARTS

SP500. It tapped at 1131, which is the bottom of the January peak range. That is a kind of consolidation peak. There is a broad top, and the SP500 is back at the bottom of this level. The significance is that it stopped it in June, and it stopped it again in August. Now it is back at that level, tapping at it on Friday and showing a candlestick doji. This is where volatility has bottomed when the market has peaked. It is in prime position to roll over, but don't anticipate that it will happen. I think is there a good probability it could happen, but it is not definite because there are some good leaders out there.

NASDAQ. NASDAQ is the same situation. It gapped to the upside and rallied up to the top of the January peak. It stalled there, and it is showing a hammer doji -- a gap to a doji at resistance. Still in the overall bearish pattern, but in a trading range. There is a possibility it could fall back from here as well. It gapped higher to resistance, and volume spiked. Maybe that volume was related only to expiration, but it was helped by others -- ORCL and RIMM had big volume on the session. It was positive volume, but it nonetheless touched resistance and volume spiked. Just as you watch for volume to rise when an index touches a support level and recovers, when you see the same thing on the top of a range, that indicates sellers are stepping in to sell a market off. The doji and the higher volume coupled with the resistance is waving a caution flag in our faces. We will have to see how it plays out.

SP600. SP600 had a better day, up 0.5%. It is still holding at the 200 day EMA, mid-range in its trading range. It is trying to establish a shelf to bounce higher. Unlike the other indices, it is in decent shape because it is not bumping its head against resistance and looking as if it will roll over. Instead it is moving laterally and consolidating, and that is a silver lining for the rest of the market, i.e., SP500 and NASDAQ, as they may come back to test a bit. That would be just about time the SP600 is ready to move back to the upside.

SOX. The semiconductors had a much better week. They rallied nicely all week. There was the inverted head and shoulders, trying to break higher, but they have banged into the bottom of the May-August range and stalled. It does not mean they are out for the count, but that is something to consider with the other indices at resistance. Are the semiconductors going to change their stripes and rally hard from here, or are they just going to stall out and fade? Of course a lot depends on what the SP500 and NASDAQ do. This is still not told us the answer, although it got interesting with the gaps to resistance showing doji on rising volume.


LEADERSHIP

Financial. Financials were down on the session. JPM dropped down to the 10 day EMA on a big volume spike. It was expiration, so I do not want to read too much into it, but it was a pretty hard plop down after moving up to the late July peak, matching it at the 200 day EMA and then falling back down. It will be important to see how it and other financials perform early next week after that drop. MS was down as well on rising volume, although it is still above a support point. It also banged into the early August peak and the 200 day EMA and rolled back down this week. Not all are showing that same action. WFC is moving laterally after hitting the 50 day EMA. Of course it didn't rise up to the prior highs. It was not as strong as the others. You can say a stock that is not as strong does not look as bad, but that is like saying a pig is cute just because it is not as ugly as a rat. If the financials continue to fall, that will be an impetus for SP500 to fall back from its doji at resistance.

Industrial. The industrials performed very well on the day, rising on big volume. CAT broke out of its series of higher lows to a new rally high, and it did so on strong volume. DE did the same thing. Strong volume breakout and nice surge. CMI did not quite have as strong a move, so I held off given the doji on the SP500. Nonetheless, they are clear leaders that are moving higher. They go into the plus category for a continued rally.

Technology. AAPL could not keep that move up. It gapped to the upside and rolled over a bit on Friday. Nothing serious as far as any impending selloff -- it was just a huge move on Thursday, and it was a little backfilling on Friday. ORCL gapped higher and rallied. It would be one to watch after this breakaway gap. It cleared resistance on the gap, and now you look for a lateral move for a few days. When it starts to break upside, you move in. Obviously we will have ORCL on the watch list and ready for that move.

RIMM gapped higher and rolled over. Is it at a bottom? It is hard to say that would be the case right now. It is continuing lower in a trend lower. It did undercut this prior low, and it is interesting because even though the price is at a lower low than it was in July, MACD is making a higher low. There is a divergent bottom there. This would be a false breakdown from RIMM. You would look for a buy as it moved through this low and was able to hold. It was unable to do that on Friday, but we will see if it holds at the 10 day EMA or above the 18 day EMA as it did on Friday and can reverse back to the upside. That is a chance to play the stock. You also have to watch out -- there was a strong selloff, a bounce, a higher low, and a higher high. Now if it breaks lower, you have a downside ABCD pattern. Not much room to the A point, so you may not want to make that play. You would not get good enough return. Instead I would be watching to see if it reverses off of the 10 or 18 day EMA to the upside. You would play a reversal up to perhaps this gap point from June or the July/August peak.

ADTN is another tech that has been performing well. It started to bounce higher on some volume Friday. It once more looks like it is ready to break higher. We could have picked up more positions but decided to wait until Monday given the action on NASDAQ and SP500. Others are still setting up. RAX pulled back a bit more, holding right at the prior peak. Volume jumped up as it held that level. That shows some buyers stepping in even though it was down on the session. There are some positives continuing in the tech sector.

Metals. FCX gapped higher early in the week and moved laterally to finish. Still in solid shape. No issues with copper. MTL had some good news out on the day, but it was not able to make hay of it. It closed at the 18 day EMA, but had a nice pullback holding over prior peaks and something of a cup with handle. It could be ready to make a solid break higher.

Retail. EAT gapped lower and sold off on high volume. Not a total breakdown, but I did not like the look of it at all. BWLD sold again after a tough Thursday. It gapped higher but could not hold it, and it closed a bit lower. DRI sold back to the 10 day EMA on stronger volume, but it is holding there. No issues. It could continue to bounce to the upside.

There are some areas that are showing leadership, and others are coming around. There are not big blocks of stocks in sectors that are showing great leadership and ready to move in and power the market higher. That is what keeps me somewhat skeptical that the market will be able to break out of this trading range. It could do it. It could break out with what leadership there is, and then the others could build into the role over the next several weeks. That has been known to happen. There is not a swell of stocks moving to the upside that gives me confidence that there will be a breakout. Maybe the semiconductors continue to improve and help drive the action. That would help, no doubt. If the financials trim their losses from the end of the week and reverse and start to rally again, they would add to the impetus for the breakout as well.

There are enough stocks to make the breakout if they start performing again after this pullback. It is normal to run up to resistance and move laterally, set up a shelf, and then try to make the breakout. There is the issue with the test of resistance, a doji, and a fade back from there. In the past, that has been the problem for the stocks in the trading range. They have turned right back down and sold. We are later in the trading range now, and maybe it will not be an issue. Maybe it has run its course, has done all of the consolidating and factoring into the future it needs to, and it is ready to move. It will have to show it, that's for sure. We are back to the Missouri state: Show me.


THE MARKET

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX. For the past two weeks, the VIX has been holding at levels it hit back in August. What happened in August? SP500 was at the top of its trading range. Then fast forward a few weeks into late August. The VIX was down here as SP500 was at the top of the range. Now fast forward to today. It is back at the levels from late July and early August that saw SP500 at a peak. We have volatility at that same level. Take another look at SP500. Volatility is down and SP500 is up. SP500 is showing doji on the candlestick chart. That is an interesting development. Will it fall down? It is not necessarily the case. It is not written in stone, but it is quite interesting and worth taking some downside positions on the SSO.

VIX: 22.01; +0.29
VXN: 22.26; +0.45
VXO: 20.7; -0.26

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.89; +0.07

Bulls versus Bears:

The CROSSOVER from the prior week reverted, but the bulls and bears are still close together. That crossover is a bullish indicator, and the market has rallied off of it. Question is, did it generate the momentum for a range breakout?

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 36.7% versus 33.3%. Another sizeable jump from 29.4% the week before. Back above the 35% threshold, below which is considered a bullish indicator. This dulls some of the recent upside, bullish bias. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 31.1%. A modest slip from 32.2% versus the big drop from 37.7% the week before that. Back below the 35% level, above which is considered bullish. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


NASDAQ

Stats: +12.36 points (+0.54%) to close at 2315.61
Volume: 2.359B (+35.19%)

Up Volume: 1.422B (+448.009M)
Down Volume: 1.148B (+315.218M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.37 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.67 to 1

New Highs: 105 (+29)
New Lows: 45 (+16)

NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg


SP500/NYSE

Stats: +0.93 points (+0.08%) to close at 1125.59
NYSE Volume: 1.857B (+105.16%)

Up Volume: 804.445M (+387.278M)
Down Volume: 1.028B (+553.441M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.44 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.39 to 1

New Highs: 313 (+81)
New Lows: 16 (+3)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg


DJ30

Stats: +13.02 points (+0.12%) to close at 10607.85
Volume DJ30: 367M shares Friday versus 170.3M shares Thursday.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg


MONDAY

Monday is still going to be a "show me state" day, no doubt about that. There is a lot of economic data coming out. There is the NAHB housing report on Monday. There are housing starts for August on Tuesday, and the FOMC makes a rate decision. Some say it may go to quantitative easing part deux, given that the inflation readings remain low and the economy remains weak. Initial jobless claims come out on Thursday, as well as existing home sales. Leading economic indicators, durable goods, and new homes end the week. There is plenty of economic activity no doubt, but it is not earth moving. Homes will be important because it is the largest investment most people have. The jobless claims will be the headliners.

That does not tell us a whole lot. They will impact the market near term, but the market looks several months down the road in making decisions about where it will go over the next several weeks versus just the next day. There is a doji on Friday at resistance. That is an interesting point, and we took some puts on the SSO. We may take some puts on other areas or make other downside plays. The indices are still in their trading range and have not made a decision. They are showing indications that led to breaks lower in the past. We are just playing decent probabilities with the downside plays because we have a clear point for the stop/loss and a very good risk/reward.

We are still at an inflection point. We still do not have an answer. There are some tantalizing pieces of information based on the action from Friday (really the entire week), but it is inconclusive because it was expiration Friday. I sure like the look of the high volume and the doji at resistance indicating the sellers piling in. You have to mitigate that somewhat with the expiration Friday volume ramp up.

Moving into next week, we will look into some downside positions and be ready for that. If the market breaks lower, we will also be ready to close out some upside. Maybe it will just test back to a support range. If so, we still want to lock in gain before then. If it tests at a lower level and holds, we can always make the move in as it breaks back to the upside. It would be making a higher low at an important support level, such as the 50 day EMA, inside a trading range. That often presages the breakout of the range. If that happens, then we start looking to the upside and button down the downside.

That is the nature of a trading range. You have to be ready to recognize the issues that can confront you as it trades back and forth. It is not automatic, particularly when there are this many rotations under the belt inside the range. This is when you start looking for change, not status quo. We also have financials performing better, industrials breaking to new highs, semiconductors trying to improve, and techs coming to life late in the week. Those are other reasons to beware of a test lower that may hold a key support level. If it does, we then look for a renewed attempt at a breakout. With a higher low at the 50 day EMA, I would anticipate a breakout.

For now, I do not anticipate that early in the week. We just have to let it develop, and we will continue to do what we have done. If gain is presented and the indices cannot make the breakout, we will take gain off the table. If we see good potential moves to the upside and the market is not breaking down, we can pick up some positions in those. If we see the rollover, however, we will protect our upside positions and the gain we have in them. We will play the downside, being weary of a possible higher low at a key support level that could trigger a breakout. Have a great weekend.


Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2315.61

Resistance:
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2341 is the June 2010 peak
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2382-2395 from 2008

Support:
2310 is the August 2010 peak
2292 is a low from January 2008
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows. Key lows.
The 200 day SMA at 2276
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
2236 is the first August gap point.
A series of interim peaks at 2230ish from the May to August trading range
The 50 day EMA at 2230
2221 is the gap down upside point from June.
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2184 is the June gap bottom side.
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2155 is the August 2010 low and the March 2008 intraday low
2151 is the Tuesday gap down point
2140 from the May and June 2010 lows
2100 is the February 2010 low
2099 is the recent August intraday low
2061 is the July 2010 low
2024 from November 2009
2020 to 2005 from the Q4 2009 peaks


S&P 500: Closed at 1125.59
Resistance:

1129 to 1131 is the June and August 2010 peaks
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008

Support:

1119 is the early December intraday high
The 200 day SMA at 1116
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1106 is the September 2008 low
1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks
The 50 day EMA at 1095
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010. Important level.
1065 is the May flash crash intraday low.
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1039 to 1040 are the May, June, and August 2010 lows
1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation
946 from June 2009


Dow: Closed at 10,607.85
Resistance:
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak

Support:
10,594 is the June 2010 peak
10,496 is the November 2009 high
The 200 day SMA at 10,456
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
The 50 day EMA at 10,364
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks are breaking
10,209 is recent August 2010 low
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low
9325 is a late 2008 interim peak
9034 from early 2009 peaks


Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

September 20 - Monday
NAHB Market Index, September (10:00): 14 expected, 13 prior

September 21 - Tuesday
Housing Starts, August (08:30): 550K expected, 546K prior
Building Permits, August (08:30): 560K expected, 559K prior
FOMC Rate Decision, 9/21 (14:15): 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior

September 22 - Wednesday
Crude Inventories, 09/18 (10:30): -2.49M prior

September 23 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 09/18 (08:30): 450K expected, 450K prior
Continuing Claims, 09/11 (08:30): 4450K expected, 4485K prior
Existing Home Sales, August (10:00): 4.04M expected, 3.83M prior
Leading Indicators, August (10:00): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior

September 24 - Friday
Durable Orders, August (08:30): -1.3% expected, 0.4% prior
Durable Orders -ex T, August (08:30): 0.7% expected, -3.7% prior
New Home Sales, August (10:00): 290K expected, 276K prior


September 13 - Monday
Treasury Budget, August (14:00): -$90.5B actual versus -$95.0B expected, -$103.6B prior

September 14 - Tuesday
Retail Sales, August (08:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior (revised from 0.4%)
Retail Sales ex-auto, August (08:30): 0.6% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.1% prior (revised from 0.2%)
Business Inventories, July (10:00): 1.0% actual versus 0.7% expected, 0.5% prior (revised from 0.3%)

September 15 - Wednesday
NY Fed - Empire PMI, September (08:30): 4.10 actual versus 6.4 expected, 7.1 prior
Export Prices ex-ag., August (08:30): 0.5% actual versus -0.2% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, August (08:30): 0.3% actual versus -0.2% prior (revised from -0.3%)
Industrial Production, August (09:15): 0.2% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.6% prior (revised from 1.0%)
Capacity Utilization, August (09:15): 74.7% actual versus 75.0% expected, 74.6% prior (revised from 74.8%)
Crude Inventories, 09/11 (10:30): -2.49M actual versus -1.85M prior

September 16 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 09/11 (08:30): 450K actual versus 460K expected, 453K prior (revised from 451K)
Continuing Claims, 09/4 (08:30): 4485K actual versus 4450K expected, 4569K prior (revised from 4478K)
PPI, August (08:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.2% prior
Core PPI, August (08:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior
Current Account, Q2 (08:30): -$123.3B actual versus -$125.0 expected, -$109.2B prior (revised from -$109.0B)
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, June (09:00): $61.2B actual versus $44.4B prior
Philadelphia Fed, September (10:00): -0.7 actual versus 2.0 expected, -7.7 prior

September 17 - Friday
CPI, August (08:30): 0.3% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Core CPI, August (08:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Michigan Sentiment, September (09:55): 66.6 actual versus 70.0 expected, 68.9 prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2010 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com

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Thursday, September 16, 2010

Wholesale Inventories Post 2-Year Gain

SUMMARY:
- No fireworks, but indices fight off another intraday reversal, close near session highs.
- Semiconductors try to undermine the rally, manage to come back.
- Wholesale inventories post 2 year gain, but as sales rise as well this is a glass half full story.
- Some stocks extended on this run, but others are setting up to push the indices higher in the range.
- Still nothing to say this is anything more than a rally inside the range, but we can live with that.
- Option open interests, spreads.

Stocks keep the market bounce chugging along for a second week, though the momentum wanes.

The one thing that the market action told us this week was it is still very much in a trading range. There was the big move up the prior week, and then on Tuesday it tried to give the move back. The rest of the week was almost spent in recovery mode. Thursday saw a big intraday reversal that made things somewhat precarious, but on Friday the market overcame an attempt to sell it off intraday and rallied into the close. It closed near session highs, keeping the rally in good shape. But it is already losing momentum. Yes, the upside push appears to be waning, even though there is still roughly 20-22 points for the SP500 to move up just to get to the June and August peaks. That is not even counting the top of the resistance range at the January peak. We have a bit of waning momentum.

On the flipside, while some of the stocks that have led the charge are running out of steam, others are setting up and ready to make the move higher. We will look at some of these when I talk about leaders, but you are well aware of the casual diners in retail that I have been talking about. DRI is making a solid move, and our good friend EAT is trying to make the move, but it could not stick on the day. The new emerging leaders coming back into play, as retail appears to be doing, may give extra legs and new life to the rally up toward the top of the range. That may provide, lo and behold, a breakout of the range. I am not predicting a breakout at this point. I only said this action showed that this is definitely trading inside of a range. Just look at the volume. If a significant number of new leaders step up to the plate or prior leaders that have been recycled through this basing process that could send the indices to a breakout. I will put this caveat on it: A lot more need to shape up and step up before that would happen. There is not enough quality leadership in position to move right now to break the indices out. It does not mean that will not change, but there has to be more stepping up.

What does the trading range tell us? Right now, the economic data and the gloom are such that it is ripe for a contrary play, which would be a breakout. What would a breakout tell you? That would mean that the economic conditions are better than the current conventional wisdom, i.e., slowing and in trouble. I said earlier in the week that the gloom is about as bad as you can get for the economy. Typically there are turns in the market or a bottom of a trough in the economic data when things appear to be their darkest. Those tend to occur at the same time because the market precedes the turn in the economy. We will not know about the bottom of a trough in an economic cycle until months after the fact, but the market sniffs it out in advance and makes its move early. We will watch key indices that is all of them, but particularly the growth indices and the SP600.

We will watch them all for breakouts of trading ranges because a trading range is a period of indecision. The buyers and sellers are evenly matched. Sure, the buyers take over at some points and drive stocks higher, but then the sellers come back in and drive them right back down and the cycle repeats itself. It does that until there is a breakout. In other words, one side dominates the other. It is not the Aggie sex manual, as we say down here in Texas: "In, out, repeat as necessary," where there is only one rotation. No, it is several rotations as they slug it out and eventually make the breakout. Again, I am not predicting it. But, as they said in Stripes, "We are open to new ideas." I think I may have gotten that quote wrong, but you get the idea.

Where does that leave the market? That leaves the market still well off the peak in this trading range, so is there room to run. That is a positive because we have great plays that can go to the upside and still make us even more money beyond the gain we took this week. We banked some nice gain indeed. It also means we can have some new plays to continue to move higher. There are stocks in position to move, like some of the casual eateries. On the day, it was not a grand performance, but it beat the heck out of Thursday's intraday reversal. NASDAQ +0.3%, SP500 +0.5%, Dow +0.46%, SP600 +0.15%, NASDAQ 100 +0.3%, SOX -1.4%. The chip stocks were down because there was bad word out of TXN and NSM. The market was hoping the chips would say business was actually improving; instead they said the opposite and were taken out and beaten about the head and shoulders. They did recover in the session, however.


OTHER MARKETS

Dollar. The dollar once again did a big nothing on the day, stalling out once more at the 50 day EMA. It has been moving laterally since coming off of the last test. That is not necessarily bad action. It is trying to set up for a second break to the upside. Its second attempt never got underway before the three-week, lateral-to-slightly-lower move. We will see if the dollar can make this break and continue higher. The dollar has been something of a fear trade as worries about Europe and the US hit a crescendo. It seems strange that the dollar would get investors when the US economy was in question, but that goes to show you how concerned investors around the world are about the world economic recovery. The dollar closed slightly weaker (1.2712 Euro versus 1.2701 Thursday). Intraday it was stronger, trading down to 1.26 range, but as the day went on it lost ground. A little bit of concern crept in and stocks were able to hold their gain, making the dollar less a repository of extra funds on the day. No big change in the chart at all.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg


Bonds. Since there was no fear and stocks were up, bonds sold off again (US 10 year 2.79% versus 2.75% Thursday). It was not long ago that the 10 year was in the 2.5 range. It sold back off and broke below the 50 day EMA. Indeed, it hit a new closing low for this selloff of the past three weeks. Now it has filled the gap, and it is sitting right on top of the June and July peaks That is where it sold off last week before it bounced, and now it has come back to test. It is a key point for the bonds. If it can hold and bounce here, we will have an upside play. This is going to be key, and I note that there was a tight doji on Friday at this level, so it may yield an upside play on the TLT. We will have to see. Bonds have gone about as far as they can go. If there is any hint that the world economies will improve, then bonds are going to sell. They have been rallying like crazy. Right now we will watch. Maybe next week we can get another quick upside play off of this one but, overall, I do not like the prospects for bonds getting much higher long term, although they are at key support right now.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tlt.jpeg


Gold. Gold has been struggling a bit. It made an excellent run back up to the all-time peaks posted in June of this year, and it started to sell off some during the week. We entered a GLD play to the downside, and we are just seeing if it will break down. It was showing a lack of momentum up at the top. It had that evening star doji, and then it sold off but tried to hold. It did hold at the 18 day EMA on Friday. Still looking for a downside move to test this range. It could go near the 50 day EMA, and it could go even lower. We will see what happens. I am still banking that it goes a bit lower, but gold is one of the inflation hedges above all. In other words, fear sends money into the gold, but gold is ultimately an inflation hedge. If the economies start to show any inkling of a solid economic recovery, gold prices will run higher because of the insanely large amounts of liquidity flowing through the world economies. If gold senses that the economies are getting ready to take off, it will sense inflation ratcheting up and it will jump higher. We have to watch it. The downside play is one of not anticipating any immediate recovery in the economies, and we will see how that works out. It looks somewhat weak right here and ready to test back some after such a great run since mid-July.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg


Oil. Oil jumped up sharply today, breaking through the 50 day EMA and the recent peaks, and it was a strong move ($76.45, +$2.20). There was a pipeline closure. It had to be shut down in the west, and that is causing a shortage in the US. That drove prices artificially higher. You might consider filling up your tanks. It looked like oil might try to make a break higher, and though it got an unexpected catalyst, it did push it higher. With this type of news, it may not be able to hold those gains for long.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg


Overall, the fear trade died down over the week. It tried to flare up early in the week when stocks sold off but, as the rally continued, the fear trade diminished somewhat. I expect it to diminish further as long as the indices continue to trek higher in their trading range. How much higher? There is not much room, so there could be a bit more upside. That will be the most telling point whether there will be a breakout by the indices, and then the other markets will react accordingly.


TECHNICAL SUMMARY

INTERNALS

Volume. Volume was slightly lower at 1.65 shares on NASDAQ. It was down less than 1%, but still well below average. It was down almost 10% on the NYSE to 754M shares, well below the billion-level everyone uses as the yardstick for moves for those indices.

Breadth. Breadth was nondescript at +1.2:1 on the NASDAQ, +1.9:1 on the NYSE. No excitement at all, just basically boring, blas , and tracking the lack of movement in the indices.


CHARTS

SP500. SP500 continued the move. It tried to sell off, but it held its poise through Tuesday and the intraday reversal on Thursday. It closed near the high on the week. That pushed it over 1106, the next resistance for the index, but it has serious resistance ahead of it. It still has to get through the 200 day EMA at 1116, and then it has the August and June peak at 1131 on the intraday high. That does not even account for the January peak, and the top of that is all the way up to 1150. That would be a nice extension of this move. It would not necessarily be a breakout, although it would be a breakout over the past five month's trading range. It would be an excellent move, and we would make a lot of money off of that on our upside plays. But we cannot count on that because momentum was waning. We need to see a good, strong break next week to the upside. I will be watching closely. The VIX is at levels were the index peaked before in August it was at the top of the range. Remember, the VIX was down here. Well, it is down here again, and the index is not even at the top of its range. That bears close watching next week as a new full-strength week gets underway.


NASDAQ. NASDAQ was able to post a gain as well after it gapped and reversed on Thursday. Same issue here: A lack of momentum. After a strong move the first week of the rebound, it slowed down. That is typical. There is nothing strange about momentum waning on the second week, but there was a lot of struggle going on here as well. And it still has a significant way before it makes it to the top of its range. There is plenty of room to run, but we have to watch to make sure it does not run out of gas prematurely.


SP600. SP600 was up just 0.15%, and it went nowhere on the day. As noted on Thursday, however, it has one of the better-looking consolidations mid-range in its trading range. It is skirting sideways, just over the 50 day EMA, showing a tight doji on Friday. It is in position to make the break to the upside. It would be very nice to see the small caps lead to the upside. That will be one of the indicators as to whether the market is pricing in better economic times ahead, right in the midst of the gloomiest period for economic data that we have seen. Often they go together, but right now is there nothing to suggest from the market that there will be a sustained recovery because they are not in position to make to breakout at this point.


SOX. SOX sold off on the TXN and NSM news, and a lot of semiconductors were hit hard, but they did manage to come back. They are still below the bottom of the range, and that did some damage to the Friday action. You can see the left shoulder, the head, and then it's trying to form the right shoulder. It was starting to try a move up, but then it was smacked down on Friday. It does not mean it will not happen, it was just a setback. Since I short the SMH, that is fine with me.


LEADERSHIP

There is a pattern here. A lot of the stocks that have led the move are extended. Other stocks that were not leading but have come to life are extended after a short rally higher because their patterns are not that great. There are some stocks that are in position to move, but we need to see more of them.

Financial. JPM has made a good move off of the bottom of its range over the last two weeks. It could move higher as could SP500, but it has some serious resistance overhead, and it is not in the best entry point right now. Same with MS. It has rallied nicely as well. Good move the prior week, a test early this week, and then a rally to close out the week. It is already at some significant resistance points. Again, not a great buy position right now. It is a bit extended off the bottom of its range. Will it be leading higher? It is not in a great risk/reward position for a new move. It does not mean it cannot do it, but it is not in a great position. With the resistance, you would not put your money to work right here, and that typically indicates the move needs a pullback or test first.

Metals. CLF had a nice pullback to near support at the 10 day EMA and above another peak. It might lead to a new bounce. That has the potential to rally back up to the prior high and help lead the market. The last two weeks, FCX it has helped lead the market. It has moved laterally somewhat, trying to consolidate at some resistance. It has room to run up to 88 or so and help lead the market higher as well. There is some room here, but it needs more consolidation.

Technology. AAPL is at the top of its range, and it is stalling a bit. If AAPL breaks out, that would be a positive sign for technology, but it is not showing it is ready to do that just yet. I am looking at MACD and the last time it was at this level. It is trying to move above that and show a bit of a positive divergence, but it has not done it yet. We have had some great moves from the cloud computers, such as FFIV. It is pulling back to test. It seems to have a lot of lives in it, and it just broke out of a triangle and is coming back to test. We can make a trade out of that, but not necessarily one that you would think has another 50% move in front of it. RAX surged higher on Friday, good for us. That will help. That is one that broke out of a flag pattern itself and has given a nice run higher. AKAM is making a test similar to FFIV, but it has another good run under its belt. We can make a trade out of it but, again, you are just looking at a trade and not necessarily the stock going up 50% again from here.

Industrial. CAT is back up at a significant resistance point, and MACD is lagging far behind. That would be a negative divergent top that could indicate some downside. You have to be wary. DE is the same story. It is up at a key resistance point, but it is pulling back in a flag after a nice break higher in its ABCD pattern. It has come back to hold above the 10 day EMA. MACD was lower here as well, so we are watching to see if we get a breakout move on a position. JOYG has come back to a prior peak and is struggling a bit as well. It is not in a position to extend or come back and test right now.

Energy. Energy has been kind of quiet. LUFK is one that I am in, and it bolted higher to the top of its range on Friday. I took some off the table as that was the plan. Now we see if it can break out of the range, but it is more of a rare bird in energy. CVX is performing fairly well, but it has a ragged pattern and is coming back up to a key resistance point. Not necessarily in the position you would want to buy. The oil service companies are similar; they have rallied higher but they are not necessarily impressive. They are approaching resistance as well. We may not get a lot more help from them on this move either.

Retail. We need to find stocks that will help the market extend, and there are some retailers performing better. EAT is in a nice flag pattern after a strong surge the prior week. Still in position to move higher. DRI moved higher nicely on Friday.YUM started to break higher on Friday as well. There are stocks in position to move higher, but we need to get more of them. ROST looks ready to move up, but most of the retailers are like this. They are rebuilding. They may provide the leadership that is needed, but outside of these, the leadership is scattered among the various sectors. It is not easy to find new sectors with a bunch of stocks that are ready to make the break to the upside. They are all pretty much extended.

We may get to the top of that range on the back of some of these retailers perhaps, and a continued extension of the current runs and the leaders that have rallied nicely over the last couple of weeks. Then, after that, we get a trade back down in the range as they test the recent moves. That would not necessarily be a bad thing. What if SP500 rallies up to the prior peaks and stalls? We talk our gain on the SSO and a bunch of other positions. And then it comes back down and holds the 50 day EMA which would have risen up behind it (maybe the 200 day EMA, but not as likely). Then you may get your breakout. I always watch a trading range and look for a significant higher low in the top half of the range. If you see that, then you watch for that breakout. You can actually see the move out of the range.

It could be setting up for a run up to the peak or close to it and then we could get the test back into this range near 1110, where it is now. Then if it can hold between the 200 day EMA and the 50 day EMA, we might get the upside breakout. That would be truly exciting for the upside, as it would indicate this market is starting to build in some economic improvement down the road. Obviously it would start to improve based upon just how strong it thinks the economic recovery would be. I do not think there is any way a renewed economic recovery can have any real strength to it. This may all be a play on the election coming up in November. If it feels that will happen, they will stop some spending, get some programs in place that help business the market would rally on that as well. We will just have to watch how the technical action plays out and how the indices test the highs. And, if they do break back down, whether they can make a higher low. What does that tell us for now? We are in a trading range, and we are playing it as such.


THE MARKET

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX. The VIX has fallen to the range it hit in August when the market peaked out and rotated back down in its trading range. There is some suggestion that the market may be peaking out on this move. It does not mean it will immediately turn over, but there was weak momentum on the upside on SP500 this week, and we will be watching how much momentum there is early in the week. In other words, whether the move completely runs out as the real post-summer session begins (typically the week after the Labor Day holiday week). VIX is at a level where it has led to a market correction within the trading range during the last four to five months. We will see if we get that this week, and that is worth noting as we start a new week with the SP500 and the other indices showing a bit of weakness.

VIX: 21.99; -0.82
VXN: 22.98; -0.31
VXO: 20.89; -0.64

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.28; +0.22

Bulls versus Bears:

The CROSSOVER from the prior week reverted, but the bulls and bears are still close together. That crossover is a bullish indicator, and the market has rallied off of it. Question is, did it generate the momentum for a range breakout?

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 33.3% versus 29.4%. Back to the exact level from three weeks back. Still below the 35% considered a bullish indicator. This bolsters the upside run in the range. Bulls and bears are starting to merge again though no crossover yet. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 32.2% versus 37.7%. Sharp decline in bears and back below the 35% level, above which is considered bullish. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


NASDAQ

Stats: +6.28 points (+0.28%) to close at 2242.48
Volume: 1.648B (-0.77%)

Up Volume: 750.579M (-226.144M)
Down Volume: 903.484M (+263.452M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.21 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.18 to 1

New Highs: 37 (-39)
New Lows: 43 (+1)

NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg


SP500/NYSE

Stats: +5.37 points (+0.49%) to close at 1109.55
NYSE Volume: 754.848M (-9.89%)

Up Volume: 493.973M (-73.362M)
Down Volume: 221.294M (-40.086M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.87 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.67 to 1

New Highs: 256 (-47)
New Lows: 8 (-6)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg


DJ30

Stats: +47.53 points (+0.46%) to close at 10462.77
Volume DJ30: 140M shares Friday versus 163M shares Thursday.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg


MONDAY

We have a lot of data coming out once more. Monday not as much, but we get the important retail sales for August on Tuesday, and that will be the back to school sales. We saw same store sales were better than expected, and that will be important. We get regional manufacturing data, the New York Fed on Wednesday. That will be important along with industrial production and capacity, and then we will get the initial claims. In addition, there will be the Philly Fed on Thursday. We will have the PPI that will have some influence, but not a lot. CPI will also have some but not a lot. Michigan Sentiment is something people will really be looking at. There was improving sentiment based on gasoline prices and maybe some wage growth, as the last jobs report showed. We want to see that sentiment continue to ramp up.

As for the market, what do we expect looking at stocks? Again, the momentum waned somewhat this week in the push up toward the top of the trading range. That does not mean it is over. We could still get some extra momentum next week that carries the SP500 to the 200 day EMA, and even beyond to the 1131 peak of the near resistance in the trading range. Indeed, that is key resistance because the market has been thwarted the last two times it has made it that high. We will be watching for that. At the same time, we are watching what happens early in the week. There were some selling attempts this week on Tuesday and Thursday even on Friday, but they overcame them Friday. More players will be back in the market, and we are getting close to the top of the range. I see volatility at a level were the last market rally peaked out and the selling started. We have a confluence of many factors. We also have many of the leaders in this bounce off of the low. They are extended after two weeks to the upside. There are some others coming up to bat, such as the casual diners, but there are not a lot of sectors that are in the same position that can push the market to the upside.

We have to be very careful with what we have. We have some nice gains, and we have been taking nice gains along the way. If is there a push higher, we will let them rally, but we are still in a trading range. We still have the volatility and the volume of a trading range, so we need to be careful. If we get the moves we want up to the top of the range, we will have to take gains. That is because the odds of this market giving the extended position of many leaders the odds of the market breaking out of the range on this move are low. If there is a test back toward the 1110 level, where SP500 is now, then we could make a higher low. If so, a break to the upside. That would be great. We will get some of those leaders, and we will get a good test and be in position to move higher. That will buy time also for more stocks to finish bases and get into good position to move. This is going to be a two-to-three week event. Maybe even a month-long event, i.e. rallying up to the old resistance and pulling back to consolidate and test at a higher low.

We need to be a bit cautious and stick to the plan; that is, when the market gets to the top of the range, take some gain. We also want to be able to play that move. We have those eateries, the specialty casual diners, and we will be looking at other retail and other stocks in position. Again, there are just not that many to drive things higher. We found some great plays like RAX and others, but they are more scattered. I like to see waves come in and have waves back behind the leaders to push earning higher. Use a little caution, play the move up to the top of the range (or as close as it comes), take some gain, and then watch how the test comes about. We can play some downside that is ripe, but we will still be watching to see if there is an upside break. Right now, there is nothing to indicate there will be. Other than some historical facts of prior recessions and recoveries that tend to suggest that a trough could be in place. Extreme gloom and pessimism about the market, all the while the indices trading in a trading range and not breaking lower as you would anticipate given all the extreme pessimism.

Then there is some leadership coming up nicely. One sector that is returning not to prominence yet, but showing great promise is retail. It should not be doing well if the economy is going to head lower. There are some positives out there. There are some nascent possibilities of a breakout, but I do not want to read too much into them. The market will tell us what will happen. Until it changes its character, we are in a trading range and we will play that trading range. Have a great evening.


Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2242.48

Resistance:
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
The 200 day SMA at 2273
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows. Key lows.
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2292 is a low from January 2008
2310 is the August 2010 peak
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2341 is the June 2010 peak
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2382-2395 from 2008

Support:
2236 is the first August gap point.
A series of interim peaks at 2230ish from the May to August trading range
2221 is the gap down upside point from June.
The 50 day EMA at 2215
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2184 is the June gap bottom side.
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2155 is the August 2010 low and the March 2008 intraday low
2151 is the Tuesday gap down point
2140 from the May and June 2010 lows
2100 is the February 2010 low
2099 is the recent August intraday low
2061 is the July 2010 low
2024 from November 2009
2020 to 2005 from the Q4 2009 peaks


S&P 500: Closed at 1109.55
Resistance:

1114 is the November 2009 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1116
1119 is the early December intraday high
1129 to 1131 is the June and August 2010 peaks
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008

Support:

1106 is the September 2008 low
1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks
The 50 day EMA at 1089
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010. Important level.
1065 is the May flash crash intraday low.
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1039 to 1040 are the May, June, and August 2010 lows
1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation
946 from June 2009


Dow: Closed at 10,462.77
Resistance:
The 200 day SMA at 10,452 is cracking
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,594 is the June 2010 peak
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak

Support:
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
The 50 day EMA at 10,318
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks are breaking
10,209 is recent August 2010 low
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low
9325 is a late 2008 interim peak
9034 from early 2009 peaks


Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.

September 13 - Monday
Treasury Budget, August (14:00): -$95.0B expected, -$103.6B prior

September 14 - Tuesday
Retail Sales, August (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, August (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.2% prior
Business Inventories, July (10:00): 0.8% expected, 0.3% prior

September 15 - Wednesday
NY Fed - Empire Manu, September (08:30): 5.0 expected, 7.1 prior
Export Prices ex-ag., August (08:30): -0.2% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, August (08:30): -0.3% prior
Industrial Production, August (09:15): 0.3% expected, 1.0% prior
Capacity Utilization, August (09:15): 75.0 expected, 74.8% prior
Crude Inventories, 09/11 (10:30): -1.85M prior

September 16 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 09/11 (08:30): 460K expected, 451K prior
Continuing Claims, 09/4 (08:30): 4450K expected, 4478K prior
PPI, August (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.2% prior
Core PPI, August (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior
Current Account, Q2 (08:30): -$125.0 expected, -$109.0B prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, June (09:00): $44.4B prior
Philadelphia Fed, September (10:00): 0.0 expected, -7.7 prior

September 17 - Friday
CPI, August (08:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Core CPI, August (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Michigan Sentiment, September (09:55): 70.0 expected, 68.9 prior

September 08 - Wednesday
Consumer Credit, July (15:00): -$3.6B actual versus -$5.25B expected, -$1.0B prior (revised from -$1.3B)

September 09 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 09/04 (08:30): 451K actual versus 470K expected, 478K prior (revised from 478K)
Continuing Claims, 08/28 (08:30): 4478K actual versus 4445K expected, 4480K prior (revised from 4456K)
Trade Balance, July (08:30): -$42.8B actual versus -$47.3B expected, -$49.8B prior (revised from -$49.9B)
Crude Inventories, 09/03 (11:00): -1.85M actual versus 3.42M prior

September 10 - Friday
Wholesale Inventories, July (10:00): 1.3% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.3% prior (revised from 0.1%)

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2010 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com

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