- 1-2-3 boom. Stocks blast higher after pullback.
- It's Germany! It's durable goods! It's a famous head fund manager now buying stocks! No, it's a technical move.
- SP500 and other indices surge back, financial help or not.
- Plenty of negatives to help drive stocks upside: when the individual investors says the market is rigged and quits, you have hit bottom.
- Too much news this week, but focus on technical picture and new leaders.
Three down, big one up.
Friday was a session where the analysts and experts on financial stations were trying to play "pin the tail on the rally catalyst." There were many juicy stories for them to choose from. One story was that German business sentiment was better. Surely that is enough reason for the US stock market to surge 2% higher. It could be that the government in Germany has cut government spending by $100B, or it could be that tax rates on corporations in Germany have gone down 22% over the last 10 years. Those are great stories. They would be great in the US and probably help our market even more. There was also a report out in durable goods for August. While the headline was not great, the ex-transportation (where you carve out all of the airplanes) was very solid, vaulting to a 2% gain versus a 2.8% loss in July. It was only expected to rise 0.6%, so that was a substantial move indeed, and also July was revised from -3.7%. To top it all off, there was very good business equipment spending. That is not a bad reason either.
A famed hedge fund manager who had called the housing problem was talking with financial stations on Friday morning and saying that he was buying stocks. He said they were going up because gold and bonds are topping out. Futures jumped a bit on that, but futures were up already. They were not rallying on the durables or Germany. German business confidence was not enough to get Germany and its stock market rallying, so why would it have been a catalyst for the US rally? It does not make a lot of sense. Europe was down, and it was the US that started pulling it back with its strong futures.
Looking at the intraday chart of the SPY, the futures were up early. There was a gap, a quick test, and then it was off to the races for the rest of the day. NASDAQ +2.3%, SP500 +2.2%, Dow +1.9%, SP600 +3.4%, SOX +4%, and NASDAQ 100 +2%. It was that kind of day. A big start and a big finish. Again, you have to ask yourself, what was the reason? Was it the good reports out in the morning? Or was it the reports later in the day like the August new home sales that came out at 288K versus the 291K expected? It was the third lowest on record. That probably was not the catalyst.
What about what I have been talking about for the last three days? It could not be more than that; we've had the 1-2-3 pullback to test the breakout that occurred Monday. There was the break over resistance, and then the 1-2-3 pullback that often occurs when a stock or index breaks out. Then things were set and, boom, back to the upside. Maybe some of these stories acted as a trigger to help get it going, but it was obviously ready for the move. Everyone is always trying to figure out why the market is moving. They look at stories of the day to see what is driving stocks. Those can cause minor movements, but they will not cause major trend movements. What we have is a technical trend movement because there is a breakout from the range, a test of that and it was the orderly, short kind of test that shows continued momentum. Kind of like a test of the 28% Fibonacci retracement showing continued upside momentum.
I had my reservations, no doubt. I was worried the financials would not support the move, and they were not that great on Friday. JPM managed to rise 1.6%, as did GS, but the moves were not spectacular. They are still ugly patterns, and they have tumbled down over the last few sessions. Without the major support of the financials, SP500 managed to rally right back up to that January peak at 1151. It is testing it, knocking on the door. The question is whether it will just knock on it, beat on it, or is it going to, as Bum Phillips said, "kick the son of a bitch in" ? Well, I hope it does the latter. Bum Phillips and the Houston Oilers never were able to beat Pittsburg in the championship game and move onto the Superbowl; I only hope the SP500 has more success. Stocks were up but other markets were not necessarily moving higher.
There is a theme at work right now, and there is somewhat of a divergence among some of the players. There are the inflation stocks showing inflation: dollar lower, gold higher, and bonds have been moving back up. They are out of whack. There are stocks moving up. Not really an inflation play, but they are playing more of the Fed and its quantitative easeing door-opening from the Tuesday FOMC meeting. Oil cannot decide what the hell to do, so it is sitting in the middle of its range.
Dollar. It was another sharp downside day for the dollar, and the key thing to note is that it broke below the early 2010 lows. It has cracked a new low for the year (1.3492 Euro versus 1.3321 Thursday). Very ugly week and a half on the dollar. It rolled over with a short umbrella top and is now diving below these lows. Will it go lower? Beware the false breakdown but, given the action in gold and other markets, the dollar is pricing in inflation. Indeed, our government wants to inflate our way out of the deficit. It is actually fostering the inflation and the devaluation of our currency.
As I have said before, no country has ever devalued its way to prosperity. We will create inflation, and we will create stagflation if we continue on this path. We are going down the 70's path, which was a slight variation from the 1930's path. Unfortunately, the results are going to be just slight variations as well, and not the return to growth after we just finished the summer of recovery in the United States. Unemployment staying below 8%? The summer of recovery did not quite happen. Kind of like the summer of love in San Francisco when George Harrison just found out that all the kids were dirty and slovenly. Not the real love and peace we were looking for. Talk to most anyone in this economy outside of the big corporate execs that got stimulus money and they are not exactly finding love and peace either. Now it is fall. The fall of false hope? It is election year, so that would make sense.
Bonds. While the dollar was getting hammered, bond yields actually rallied. Bonds sold off. Bonds had rebounded sharply this week, but closed out the weak with a decline (10 year 2.61% versus 2.54% yield). Bonds sold, and that drove yields higher on Friday. You would expect bonds to sell in an inflation environment. Bonds have been rallying, but they have rallied and they sold off. Now we will see what happens. Do we get something of an ABCD pattern? We will have to watch what develops over the next several weeks to see if there is a consolidation that continues higher. That would be an anomaly with the gold play hitting new highs. We may get a rollover that breaks down, which would be more what I would expect if there was an inflation play ahead.
Gold. Gold hit a new all-time high ($1,297.70, +1.40). It hit an all-time high of $1,299.70 on the session, but it backed off on the close. Gold is showing a remarkable rally to the upside. Over time, that means one thing. In the short term it can be fear, but when you start putting this kind of move in, you have inflation in the long run. How much inflation? Are we talking hyper-inflation or the old Jimmy Carter kind of misery-index inflation? 14% or 15%, no big deal. There is inflation coming, as gold is telling us what is happening.
Oil. Oil was up on Friday, but it was still milling around. Nice day for oil on the session ($77.63, +2.45). Strong move, but still trading in the middle of its range. It cannot decide if the economy is going to get better in the US and in the world, or if it will be gutted by inflation and other issues facing the world economies. Oil is playing it safe and going nowhere for now.
Volume. Volume was up 12.5% on the NYSE, ticking past 1B shares. As you can see, that volume pushed NYSE trade above average, and that is a good indication. I am looking at the NYSE, and it is breaking higher off the test of the breakout. Very strong and solid. It is clearing the resistance, looking for a move up to those April peaks.
Breadth. It was tremendous breadth, up 4:1 on the NASDAQ, and up 4.8:1 on the NYSE, advancers over decliners. Volume rallied as well up 4% to 1.95B on NASDAQ. Not a huge gain, not a 2B+ session, so it was not a runaway volume session.
SP500. SP500 bounced up off the 1-2-3 test after breaking over 1131. It rallied up to 1148.7 on the high, just off of the 1151 January peak. That will be the next important level for the index. It has to get through that level. Then there are interim problems along the way, but that makes significant higher lows, higher highs, and it puts that April peak in the gun sights for a move higher.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ was equally impressive with a 2.3% gain. It gapped to the upside after its own 1-2-3 test back to the 10 day EMA and prior support peaks. Great move, strong break. Volume edged higher. Not terrifically strong volume, but moving well nonetheless. AAPL is a bit extended, so I wonder how far NASDAQ can move. It has a lot of other stocks not nearly as extended as AAPL, however, ready to come up and push to the upside.
SP600. SP600 had a very solid 3.4% gain. With all that flash and all that substance, it is not even back up to its June or July peaks. Just getting there, and it could break out. It should break out if the other indices continue higher. No problem with that, but it has to show it. We really need to see the small caps start getting it together and moving into the lead. They were relative strength leaders on Friday, but they were not price leaders in terms of making breakouts or continuing a breakout.
SOX. SOX put in a strong 4% move, and it broke back into its range. I have been wondering if it would do that. It kept bumping its head, looking as if it would try, and it finally did. Now we see if it can make the move and make it stick. It is moving, so how sticky will it be? It looks solid thus far.
Financial. Financials were not that great. JPM was up but still a sorry pattern. GS up as well, and also a sorry pattern after being quite good. WFC is gapping back up, but it gapped back up to near resistance. That sharp move lower is very telling with respect to the financials this week. WFC was trying to fill the gap, and that is about all it did. It could not go further, and that was disappointing. SP500 is moving without them, but how long can it do that?
Industrials. CAT is soaring, taking off on high volume and resuming an already-strong move and showing high volume as it does. DE gapped higher. Not a huge move for it, but it is still quite strong. The industrials are moving very well.
Metals. The chief metal of industrials is copper. FCX is now challenging the April peak with a gap higher. There was not any volume on it, and it closed off the high. It may need to test because it has come up, made a rally up to the prior peak, and it has no volume behind this rally whatsoever. You can see what happened to it last time it rallied to a peak with no volume. It turned over and disgorged a lot of those gains. We could see something similar this time, although that would take something of a concern about the world economy to lead into that kind of selling. You know what they say: The world's economies have a copper roof. If copper tanks that means outlook is not good.
Then again, the world recovery is mixed. Some countries are very strong and some are not. Case in point, the US. In any event, copper has made an important move, and it will be very interesting to see how it tests back from here. Looking at other metals, I wonder why copper is moving. They do not look that great. MTL is a great pattern, but it has not moved much. AKS had a good pattern set up, but it is just not moving. That is one of the problems we have with other metals. Copper is running higher, but it is likely on speculation and it is all in the name FCX. The other copper plays are not moving higher, and that is interesting. It is more like a lot of money chasing one particular copper stock versus chasing the entire sector higher.
Technology. AAPL will not quit. It gapped higher yet again, this time to a doji. Maybe it fades back a bit and we could make a call sale off of this. Maybe or maybe not. It has just been incredibly strong. Every time it looks like it it is going to stall, it just rallies some more. BIDU gapped higher, continuing the strong run. Really strong. AKAM not that strong. It is struggling to hang on and trying to right the ship and keep the trend going after bouncing off the 18 day EMA Wednesday. FFIV gapped back up after bouncing on Thursday. It is still struggling at that recent high, however, and volume has not been that great the past week. Techs look good overall, but there are some issues in some of the leaders. We know that. They have been running so hard for so long that they need a bit of a break.
Retail. What a great day for some of the retail stocks. COST exploded higher, taking a strong move and making it even stronger. URBN was not a bad move. Gapped higher, not great volume, but it was a good start to a test of a break of the trendline. NFLX had a great week, gapping higher and rallying on Friday. It could not hold all of the move, but it is still to the upside. PII had a breakout from the trading range. We were trading this trading range, and we took some gain up here. Then, as always, we left some on the table because we look for this pullback inside the trading range. If you get a higher low in the trading range, that often presages a breakout itself. That is exactly what we got. We left some on the table, and now we are reaping the reward for that.
It is hard to guess where the tops are. We had a good, educated guess that there would be resistance there, and sure enough it found it. We banked some gain just in case it sold off and did not come back, but it did. Now it is breaking out and we are going to make even more money. You have to love that. AMZN, like AAPL, is just a runaway freight train to the upside. It gapped higher and surged over 5% on Friday alone with rising above-average volume. Indeed, the best volume in two months. It has been awhile since there has been volume like this, and it came add an appropriate time as the stock blew past the April peak. You cannot sustain this kind of move forever; if there is a little more upside that starts to close off the high, then pocket some of those gains, at least on your options. You will have a very healthy gain built in.
Summary. There are leaders moving to the upside, but a lot of them are leaders that have been moving already. They have been up, so just a further move is no big deal for them. Well, it is, but it does not give us a point to buy into. We have to look elsewhere, and the rally is trying to spread out. Some stocks that have tested back started back up. BCSI is starting back up, and FSLR starting back up after its test. JEC has not surged like others, but it is starting up, making higher lows and looking good. It is one that is building into a break to the upside. The leadership that started this rally is extended. It will want to pull back, and there will need to be other areas that take the torch and rally higher as they test. Stocks such as JEC look to be ready to do that.
VIX. Volatility sliced lower on the Friday gain. It did not slice through the recent lows; indeed, it is very much at the lows and key support areas carved out since mid-April. There has been no major break by volatility. If this trends holds, then the market would sell and volatility would rally back up. That is what I was looking for this break to downside, gapping from the Thursday gap to the upside. That is a little island reversal. It did not occur in the extreme, however, so it does not mean a lot. Volatility is still at this level, so it is still not a done deal that the market rallies from here. From a technical position, without considering the volatility, it certainly looks ready to move to the upside.
VIX: 21.71; -2.16
VXN: 22.72; -1.54
VXO: 20.39; -2.36
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.84; -0.1
Bulls versus Bears:
The CROSSOVER from the prior week reverted, but the bulls and bears are still close together. That crossover is a bullish indicator, and the market has rallied off of it. Question is, did it generate the momentum for a range breakout?
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 41.4% versus 36.7%. Continuing to jump higher 4 to 5 points a week for the past month. Investment advisors are getting more bullish but the investors they are advising are not, and without their money, not as much ammunition. We will see if this rally drags more money back to the stock market. Back above the 35% threshold, below which is considered a bullish indicator. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 29.3% versus 31.1%. Falling back below 30% for the first time in four month, continuing the decline from 37.7% four weeks back. Further below the 35% level, above which is considered bullish. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: +54.14 points (+2.33%) to close at 2381.22
Volume: 1.948B (+4.06%)
Up Volume: 1.777B (+1.016B)
Down Volume: 245.471M (-928.653M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 4.11 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.94 to 1
New Highs: 133 (+70)
New Lows: 20 (-21)
Stats: +23.84 points (+2.12%) to close at 1148.67
NYSE Volume: 1.067B (+12.61%)
Up Volume: 957.967M (+722.932M)
Down Volume: 107.517M (-599.091M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 4.77 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.34 to 1
New Highs: 296 (+109)
New Lows: 8 (-10)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
Stats: +197.84 points (+1.86%) to close at 10860.26
Volume DJ30: 179M shares Friday versus.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
There is too much information to deal with, but it fortunately does not start until Tuesday. There is the Case-Shiller Home Price Index plus consumer confidence for September. Wednesday it takes a day off. On Thursday we get the third estimate of Q2 GDP, as well as your usual initial claims. Then we get Chicago PMI the day before the overall national manufacturing index. We also get some University consumer sentiment on Friday as well as well as personal income and spending. That is always important. There is a ton of data out there as we move into October. October is earnings season, and we will be coming into warning season. If we are going to see anything bad, we will start seeing it come out. There was some decent news on earnings on Thursday night and Friday morning with a very nice posting by NKE and a nice gain by the stock as well.
There is a lot of data next week. As we saw on Friday, that can act as a trigger, but it is typically not what really moves the market. Things are set up well in advance, and then they act as triggers. What we saw today was just being triggered for a move higher. That was already set up, and it is a technical move. In the coming week, we are looking for whether the SP500 can break through 1151 the January peak and hold that move. That is a logical thing for it to do given the 1-2-3 test after the breakout and a continued surge higher on Friday. We will look for a continued move to the upside.
Not all stocks are overextended after Friday. As I showed with some of the leader plays, there are developing leaders right now not just stocks that have rallied and rallied and are extended. Rallies are sustained by new waves of leaders coming to the fore after forming up good bases and breaking higher. They do not all do it at once. It takes time. Money rotates through the market from one sector to the next. There are some very extended plays. AAPL has a lot of extension. It is up at the 127% Fibonacci extension, just so happens. Often a stock will rally there and pull back some. When the tech leaders that have made huge moves (AAPL, AKAM, FFIV) they will pull back. They are going to consolidate, and we just have to see if the run is over. If they roll over and break, likely not. They pull back and test and consolidate some, but while they are doing that and some of the profit-taking money leaves them, it goes out in search of other areas to plant itself and raise stock prices.
We just keep looking for other areas that are getting money thrown to them, and that is where you find good patterns with good stocks. If they are ready to move and have a good risk/reward, we can look to play those. They are still setting up, but you will see them. BCSI is one that set up again, and it already has made a good move. There are others that will be going doing the same. We will keep seeking those out and putting money to work with the market move. We bought today, no secret there. It was a pretty diverse group of stocks we picked up, but that is what a recovery rebound is all about. A lot of different sectors start pitching in and making the rally whole versus just a few sectors that are keeping the market alive. Now other areas are getting some money thrown their way and are starting to make some headway. I am going to look at those for next week as we continue to watch the market move higher.
As for existing positions, we will let them run as well. We did not take much gain on Friday. We could have because the move was a renewed break to the upside after that 1-2-3 pullback. When you see something like that, you know that there is underlying strength and more upside to come. We will let our winners run further and build in those tremendous gains where you start seeing the triple-digit runs on options. That is a good feeling and very good for your bank account. If we have a rally on into the year, at this rate we will all be buying really nice stuff for Christmas, recession or not.
That is one of the interesting things, looking out. What is driving this? Is it if fact that the US economy is going to be so strong? I do not think that is it. It does not look like it will be strong, but you never know. When things are as dark as they are, you cannot tell when the bottom is hit. It just does not feel like the bottom has hit because everyone I talk to in smaller businesses is having a very tough go of it. Usually you can feel a recovery gelling when the small companies start pulling together and start feeing good about the future. None of them fool good about the future right now.. It is not just bad gut feelings they are not doing anything. You have healthcare hanging out there, you have tax increases that could come. That is put off until after the election, so there is a lot of uncertainty remaining, and that keeps a lot of small businesses from investing their resources. That is not a good thing for the future. Why would the market rally? There are elections in the fall, and there is anticipation that that could go republican, at least in the House. That could stymie the unfettered advance of what some consider socialism, and other policies that are not particularly conducive to a good economy in the US.
There are also a lot of negatives in the stock market. We have heard for the past several months how much money has flowed out of mutual funds stock mutual funds moving to bond funds or gold funds. When pessimism is at such high levels, that is typically when stocks starts tremendous runs. All the sellers are out of the market. They have said to hell with it and are going elsewhere. Now we hear that the fund managers have come back from the Labor Day holiday and are behind on the rally. Remember, this rally started back in August and they are behind. They did not get back until this week, and now they are playing catch up. They are saying they have to buy. That could be a catalyst to keep things going upside into the Q4 as they chase performance higher.
Then you have the individuals that have been pouring all their money into bond funds and gold funds. If stocks continue to rise and continue to show good gains since most of the sellers are already out of the market any new people coming in will only work to drive stocks higher. That is what I mean. You get all the pessimists out of there. They have given up, and this is truly a market where the small guy has left for the most part. We are making great money in it, but a lot of people are not there anymore. After that May 6th flash crash, they figured it was rigged and they could not get in. That is the way it always is at a bottom. Small investors feel the market is rigged, and they give up and think, "I cannot win this game because it is just the big boys playing with computers. You can't beat a computer." They get out just at the time the market starts to rally because all the sellers are then out. That is one of the key contrary indicators.
It does not matter if the big boys are playing with computers are not. If you are smart, you did not put a bunch of stop losses in on May 6th. We just mind our stops, and we do not put market orders in and get stopped out. You have to be smart about it, or you get your head cut off and handed back to you. If you do not have your stop losses in, you saw it go down, and you saw it recover just as fast and were buying as I was. Use your head and you can play with the big boys. This little rally did not require much expertise here at all. You can recognize it was the bottom the volume came up as it was testing these lows, and it started back up. There were stocks ready to move back up. We were ready to buy them, we did, and they rallied and we made a ton of money. FFIV, AGU, AKAM, AAPL, AMZN great stocks that have moved tremendously. There are a plethora of them.
It did not take a lot of computer-aided power to figure out this move and make money off of it. The point is we have a lot of disbelievers still in the market. We have fund managers that want to catch up because this market is moving higher. Then we will have some individuals saying, "Hell, that thing is going up. I will put some money there." You got money coming back in that has been leaving for a long time, and it is not leaving Las Vegas. This is is not Las Vegas this is the stock market. If you are smart, you can make money. I still think there are catalysts to the upside now that it has made the breakout. As we see leadership continuing to improve, we are going to play it to the upside.
Have a great weekend!
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2381.22
2382-2395 from 2008
2425 is an interim peak from May 2010
2530 is the April 2010 peak (2535.28 intraday)
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2341 is the June 2010 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2310 is the August 2010 peak
2292 is a low from January 2008
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
The 200 day SMA at 2280
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows. Key lows.
The 50 day EMA at 2252
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
2236 is the first August gap point.
A series of interim peaks at 2230ish from the May to August trading range
2221 is the gap down upside point from June.
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2184 is the June gap bottom side.
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2155 is the August 2010 low and the March 2008 intraday low
2151 is the Tuesday gap down point
2140 from the May and June 2010 lows
2100 is the February 2010 low
2099 is the recent August intraday low
S&P 500: Closed at 1148.67
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1129 to 1131 is the June and August 2010 peaks
1119 is the early December intraday high
The 200 day SMA at 1117
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1106 is the September 2008 low
The 50 day EMA at 1103
1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010. Important level.
1065 is the May flash crash intraday low.
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1039 to 1040 are the May, June, and August 2010 lows
Dow: Closed at 10,860.26
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,594 is the June 2010 peak
10,496 is the November 2009 high
The 200 day SMA at 10,465
The 50 day EMA at 10,435
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks are breaking
10,209 is recent August 2010 low
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
September 24 - Friday
Durable Orders, August (08:30): -1.3% actual versus -1.4% expected, 0.7% prior (revised from 0.4%)
Durable Orders -ex T, August (08:30): 2.0% actual versus 0.6% expected, -2.8% prior (revised from -3.7%)
New Home Sales, August (10:00): 288K actual versus 291K expected, 288K prior (revised from 276K)
September 28 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, July (09:00): 3.4% expected, 4.23% prior
Consumer Confidence, September (10:00): 52.9 expected, 53.5 prior
September 29 - Wednesday
Crude Inventories, 09/25 (10:30): 0.970M prior
September 30 - Thursday
GDP - Third Estimate, Q2 (08:30): 1.6% expected, 1.6% prior
GDP - Deflator, Q2 (08:30): 1.9% expected, 1.9% prior
Initial Claims, 09/25 (08:30): 457K expected, 465K prior
Continuing Claims, 09/18 (08:30): 4450K expected, 4489K prior
Chicago PMI, September (09:45): 56.0 expected, 56.7 prior
October 01 - Friday
Personal Income, August (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.2% prior
Personal Spending, August (08:30): 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior
PCE Prices - Core, August (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
U Michigan Consumer , September (09:55): 67.1 expected, 66.6 prior
Construction Spending, August (10:00): -0.5% expected, -1.0% prior
ISM Index, September (10:00): 54.5 expected, 56.3 prior
Auto Sales, September (14:00): 3.8M expected, 3.7M prior
Truck Sales, September (14:00): 4.9M expected, 4.96M prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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