* * * *
6/24/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: YNDX; MDR
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
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********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- An upside week with a test as well.
- DJ30 in a solid test while RUTX could be making an important move.
- Goldman says the Fed causes most recessions. Who would have thought?
- Jobs: MCD replacing 2500 cashiers with automated kiosks
- With many leaders at the 50 day MA, it is do or die time for the chips.
- Plenty of leaders to help lift the market.
- Political surprises still to come this week? Comey visits NYT on Friday.
Lynch, Clinton, Soros all in the Senate probe.
Last week started higher with a gap by all the indices. Then it was a
matter of trying to hang on to hold the gains. A break higher then a test.
All in one week.
Gains, but disappointing for sure -- a nice upside break and then the
inability to capitalize on it. A rally deferred.
Nonetheless, the week ended with some interesting patterns. DJ30 is in a
great test of its new high; nice and orderly, holding the 10 day EMA. RUTX,
on a Russell rebalance Friday, posted a very nice upside day after holding
the 20 day EMA on a test into Wednesday. Nice potential in those two.
NASDAQ finished the week decently enough, breaking to a higher weekly high
after it consolidated the Monday upside gap. It is still well off the early
June high but it rescued its trend with a hold of the 50 day MA and that
Monday gap.
The other indices were rather noncommittal in their moves. SP400 held the
50 day EMA test and bounced modestly. SP500 put in an easy test of the new
high scored on the Monday gap and rally. SOX did little after gapping
upside Monday.
SOX is at an important crossroads. Many quality semiconductors are testing
key support at the 50 day EMA: LRCX, SIMO, SMTC, MCHP, AMAT. If they are
going to hold their trends and start moving back up, and by extension SOX,
this is where they should do it. Otherwise at a minimum they slip into a
lengthier consolidation.
SP500 3.80, 0.16%
NASDAQ 28.56, 0.46%
DJ30 -2.53, -0.01%
SP400 0.43%
RUTX 0.73%
SOX 0.32%
VOLUME: NYSE +150%, NASDAQ +90%. Big volume surges on the Russell
rebalance session.
A/D: NYSE 2.2:1, NASDAQ 1.9:1. Nothing like a 0.73% move in the small caps
to put some breadth into the market.
As noted, it was Russell rebalance day and hence a boatload of volume.
Perhaps that is why RUTX posed a solid move as RUTX stocks were bought.
But, in a rebalance there are stocks bought and sold and on balance there is
typically no net movement.
NEWS/ECONOMY
There was not a ton of news Friday, but there is interesting news
nonetheless.
Jobs: Sears is closing another 20 stores in addition to the 200 closures
previously announced. I guess that is the softer side of Sears
MCD: Announces it is laying off 2,500 cashiers to be replaced by ordering
kiosks. The irony is that even as those wanting to make fast-food jobs
career jobs by demanding a $15/hour wage, while they are protesting, those
jobs are disappearing. The past two years I wrote about the inevitability
of the conversion to automation in fast food and other historically low-wage
industries given the push to detach market forces from wages. It is
happening quickly, PARTICULARLY given Amazon's success in entering so many
diverse industries. They have even more incentive to stay lean and cutting
edge, and they are doing it.
Recessions: GS releases a new study with the conclusion that most modern
recessions are caused by . . . the Fed. The surprise factor for that
conclusion? Zero. It is akin to the government grants awarded to determine
if couples who chronically fight are sadder. It is axiomatic.
Goldman joins several others reaching this conclusion, though GS is not
warning of imminent recession as is DB, BAC and others. For most citizens,
the recession is already here, and for many of those it never ended but
instead has been a long depressed period of low paying jobs, ever coming
close to the pre-recession levels of prosperity.
So nice of those 'in the know' to now acknowledge that things are not great.
Indeed, DB notes that though the expansion is the third longest in history
at 32 quarters, it is also has the lowest average growth rate of just 2%.
If you consider the skewed impact of the expansion, i.e. the very top of the
socioeconomic spectrum receiving 90% of the benefits, the anemic 2% level is
even more impressively low.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
DJ30: Still the market leader, gapping to a new high Monday then testing it
all week. Very orderly test to the 10 day EMA, showing a doji with tail
Friday, filling the Monday upside gap. DJ30 is in excellent position to
move higher.
RUTX: A strong move Friday after getting a bit sketchy Tuesday and
Wednesday, giving back the upside gap to start the week. Held and rebounded
Thursday, surged Friday. Perhaps it was the Russell rebalance. With the
economic data as it is and recession worries, small caps would be the
logical group to struggle. Holding well and eying the April and early June
highs if it can continue the rebound.
NASDAQ: Gapped off the 50 day MA test to start the week, went laterally,
then Friday broke upside again. Still off the highs but NASDAQ is making a
move at the highs. The trend is holding with the gap, consolidation, and
Friday bounce. Works for now. Chips bouncing would really help.
SOX: Unlike NASDAQ, SOX could not move up out of the lateral consolidation.
It held the 50 day MA and bounced. Now it needs those stocks at the 50 day
MA to make a bounce as well and continue their uptrends.
SP500: Gapped higher Monday as did DJ30 then spent the week testing, giving
it all back with a gap fill. Held the 10 day EMA on the closes, however,
and leaves itself in good position to move higher this coming week.
SP400: Gapped higher Monday then sold hard Tuesday and Wednesday, dropping
to the 50 day MA. Doji Thursday, bounced modestly Friday. Not showing much
power, and this index may be a truer read on the smaller cap stocks versus
RUTX given there was no S&P rebalance.
LEADERSHIP
Metals: Came to life Friday after a good week of consolidation. AKS bounced
5+%. SCHN +6.9%. CENX 8.8%. Getting some money their way.
Biotechs/Drugs: Strong week. Some of the laggard big names in the group
rallied, e.g. CELG, BIIB. DVAX, IMGN rallied well for us. We are looking
at some others with new plays this week.
China: A nice though somewhat volatile week. NTES strong again, surging on
the week. BABA solid on the week. SINA a bit volatile but held. SOHU
still working a good pattern. JD broke higher for us. Solid group.
Software: Very solid. CALD is surging for us, up 14% on the week. DATA
rallied nicely for us. ORCL, ADBE, RHT all strong post-earnings.
Financial: Very interesting though still back and forth. C in a great
breakout test. BAC, however, is struggling lower. GS looked good then fell
to the 200 day SMA.
Materials: Very solid week. USCR on a rope upside. MAS looks ready to
move again after testing the 10 day EMA and its last high.
Chips: Some in great position: HIMC, MRVL. Indeed, if the chip uptrend
remains, many are ready to move up off the 50 day EMA: MCHP, LRCX, SMTC,
SIMO, SWKS.
FAANG: FB held the 10 day EMA and jumped to a new closing high Friday.
AMZN still creeping up the 10 day EMA. AAPL still bumping against the 50
day MA. NFLX surged through the 50 day MA. GOOG up modestly Friday. Very
mixed, but some solid moves such as FB.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: -2.53 points (-0.01%) to close at 21394.76
Nasdaq
Stats: +28.56 points (+0.46%) to close at 6265.25
Volume: 4.16B (+91.71%)
Up Volume: 2.43B (+1.26B)
Down Volume: 1.69B (+762.8M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.85 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.42 to 1
New Highs: 123 (+15)
New Lows: 36 (-8)
S&P
Stats: +3.8 points (+0.16%) to close at 2438.3
NYSE Volume: 2.1B (+150.36%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.17 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.4 to 1
New Highs: 104 (+11)
New Lows: 39 (-30)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 10.02; -0.46
VXN: 14.47; -0.33
VXO: 9.78; +0.55
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.96; +0.16
Bulls and Bears: Bulls come back some after a sharp drop from almost 56.
Bears climb to the highest level in 4 months. A bit more bullish, a bit
more bearish.
Bulls: 51.5 versus 50.0
Bears: 19.4 versus 18.6
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 51.5 versus 50.00
50.00 versus 55.8 versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus
58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7
versus 53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7
versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8
versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0
versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7
versus 45.2
Bears: 19.4 versus 18.6
18.3 versus 19.2 versus 18.3 versus 17.1 versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9
versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75
versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6
versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6
versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7
versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1
versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.140% versus 2.148%. Gapped higher Tuesday and moved higher into
Friday. The bond yield curve is its flattest since the recovery.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.148%
versus 2.165% versus 2.156% versus 2.191% versus 2.155% versus 2.162% versus
2.209% versus 2.21% versus 2.21% versus 2.19% versus 2.176% versus 2.14%
versus 2.183% versus 2.154% versus 2.21% versus 2.20% 2.26% versus 2.255%
versus 2.252% versus 2.287% versus 2.254% versus 2.233% versus 2.229% versus
2.223% versus 2.32% versus 2.34% versus 2.34% versus 2.393% versus 2.401%
versus 2.394% versus 2.381% versus 2.354% versus 2.322% versus 2.289% versus
2.322% versus 2.30% versus 2.31% versus 2.33% versus 2.275% versus 2.236%
versus 2.234% versus 2.21% versus 2.15% versus 2.248% versus 2.232% versus
2.264% versus 2.30% versus 2.36%
EUR/USD: 1.11928 versus 1.11484
Historical: 1.11484 versus 1.11670 versus 1.11346 versus 1.11419 versus
1.11968 versus 1.11466 versus 1.12213 versus 1.12086 versus 1.11930 versus
1.11965 versus 1.1199 versus 1.12491 versus 1.12798 versus 1.12684 versus
1.12811 versus 1.12181 versus 1.12547 versus 1.11768 versus 1.11810 versus
1.12148 versus 1.12240 versus 1.11868 versus 1.12390 versus 1.11916 versus
1.23077 versus 1.10985 versus 1.11557 versus 1.10862 versus 1.09833 versus
1.09328 versus 1.08655 versus 1.08671 versus 1.08843 versus 1.09286 versus
1.09994 versus 1.09086 versus 1.08923 versus 1.09284 versus 1.090984 versus
1.08987 versus 1.08691 versus 1.09093 versus 1.09358 versus 1.08449 versus
1.07255 versus 1.07255 versus 1.07188 versus 1.0717 versus 1.07304 versus
1.06431 versus 1.06138 versus 1.0671 versus 1.06068 versus 1.05984
USD/JPY: 111.299 versus 111.357
Historical: 111.357 versus 111.278 versus 111.470 versus 111.729 versus
110.873 versus 110.854 versus 109.560 versus 110.060 versus 109.97 versus
110.334 versus 110.299 versus 109.355 versus 110.038 versus 110.446 versus
111.595 versus 110.909 versus 111.086 versus 111.217 versus 111.828 versus
111.678 versus 111.835 versus 111.076 versus 111.534 versus 111.271 versus
111.584 versus 111.167 versus 112.414 versus 113.074 versus 113.749 versus
113.349 versus 113.759 versus 114.263 versus 113.771 versus 113.217 versus
112.683 versus 112.495 versus 112.782 versus 112.779 versus 111.793 versus
111.524 versus 111.197 versus 111. 177 versus 111.234 versus 109.704
Oil: 43.01, +0.27. Broke the bottom part of the range Wednesday, recovered
some lost ground Thursday and Friday, but did not recover the range. Not
exactly surging upside after breaking the range.
Gold: 1256.40, +7.00. Sold to the 200 day SMA Tuesday followed by a
3-session recovery. Held where it had to, no blowout, but is bouncing.
MONDAY
Talk of a new NYT story on Trump given that Comey visited the NYT Friday,
chips at the key 50 day MA levels, lots of economic reports (durable goods,
GDP 3rd, Personal income and spending, Chicago PMI). Plenty to chew on.
More White House allegations has not treated the stock market well in the
past, though it has recovered.
Still calls the market is too high, too extended, too overvalued,
particularly in light of an economy too weak. Yet, there are some very good
patterns, many in fact, and the stock indices in terms of DJ30, SP500 and
RUTX are not weak at all. NASDAQ is trying to come back as well.
We are looking at more upside plays given the patterns the market is showing
as money moves to new sectors as opposed to leaving the market. We will see
if the RUTX move Friday has staying power, a big boost to the market.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 6265.25
Resistance:
6341.70 is the all-time high.
Support:
6205 is the late May all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 6123
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
The 2016 trendline at 5973
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
5800 from the February consolidation lows
The 200 day SMA at 5652
5661 is the late January upper gap point
5601 is the January lower gap point
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
S&P 500: Closed at 2438.30
Resistance:
2439 is the all-time closing high
The 2016 trendline at 2464
Support:
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2406
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
The 200 day SMA at 2287
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
Dow: Closed at 21,394.76
Resistance:
21,535 is the all-time high
Support:
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 21,061
20,553 is the lows of the week of May 15
20,547 is the lower gap point from late April 2017
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,400 is the mid-April 2017 low.
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
The 200 day SMA at 19,895
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
19,732 is the January 2017 low
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
End part 1 of 3
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Sunday, June 25, 2017
Saturday, June 17, 2017
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 6-17-17
* * * *
6/17/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: SEDG; SQ
Entry alerts: AAPL
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: DIOD
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- SOX, NASDAQ take the break from their runs to new highs, DJ30 and NYSE
indices fill in upside while they do.
- FOMC, Trump allegations, crappy economic data take a toll, perhaps not as
deadly as some would believe.
- Still plenty of patterns in leadership, others ready to move higher.
- Plunge protection worked again? We will know more this week.
The past week continued the floundering for the NASDAQ and SOX that started
the prior Friday. This while DJ30 broke to new highs while the other NYSE
indices fell in line behind it with some new highs though they tested to end
the week.
SP500 0.69, 0.03%
NASDAQ -13.74, -0.22%
DJ30 24.38, 0.11%
SP400 0.01%
RUTX -0.24%
SOX -0.33%
VOLUME: NYSE +180%, NASDAQ +70%
A/D: NYSE 1.4:1, NASDAQ -1.2:1
It was not great action as many leaders from the recent highs struggled. At
the same time, other stocks are trying to step up to leadership. Some of
those are making it stick (e.g. manufacturing), some could not (some oil,
some metals). Even so, most held the line, even those prior leaders that
sold rather hard in the tech and chip sectors.
So, the market had to deal with the FOMC decision to hike rates 25BP and,
more importantly, outline a fairly specific plan for reducing its balance
sheet by $600B. It also had to deal with new allegations the President is
being investigated for obstruction, apparently with regard to his 'give the
buy a break' comments about Flynn to Comey after Flynn was fired from his
post. To top it off, the economic data was relatively crappy. The regional
manufacturing sentiment surveys were decent, but Housing starts plunged
5.5%, retail sales showed the biggest drop in 16 months, the CPI dropped
sharply (not bad in our view), and Michigan sentiment for June missed
expectations with a 94.5 reading, well off its highs the past several
months.
With all that great news and on the heels of SOX and NASDAQ breaking to new
highs, a test is not that surprising. Recall a couple of weeks back I
commented SOX was due for a test after such a solid, steady 3 week move to
new highs. And, while they took a break, the other indices could lead
higher. Didn't think it would be DJ30, but there you go. Okay, SOX is
taking the break and holding the 50 day EMA in the process. Oh my what a
massive disaster. Similar for NASDAQ as it sold to the 50 day EMA on the
Monday low, bounced, then double tapped back at the 50 day on the Thursday
low. Many of the big name NASDAQ stocks of course show the same action.
Even as those two tested, DJ30 put in new highs as did SP500, SP400 and
RUTX. It's just that the Dow held its higher highs while the others tested
late week with the various news stories.
That is not horrible action. Indeed, sifting through the pullback for this
weekend we found many, many good-looking patterns that could deliver solid
new moves upside. Some from new sectors, some from old sectors setting up
after pullbacks. Basically there are possibilities from a wide range of
market sectors, not a bad indication for the upside at all.
Expiration surged volume on the exchanges and we did take the rest of the
June options, banking some solid 300+% on SQ's options and SEDG's 90+% on
its June options. We also put some money downside on AAPL; I know, heresy,
but it looks the most likely of the FAANG to not move back up.
All in all it was a week where the bears could say 'told you so,' but a very
hollow statement. There are still a lot of good patterns out there and the
tech stocks that looked assured to break down held support and even set up
short upside-looking patterns. Perhaps they still break down but they are
showing they are not easy outs. Could it be that the plunge protection team
was successful again? Another selloff from two Fridays back averted, giving
the signal and the time for the bids to return? How stocks respond this
week will tell more of that tale.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
DJ30: Punched out a new high two Fridays back and continued higher through
Friday. Taking over for NASDAQ and SOX as they tested.
SP500: New high Tuesday, early Wednesday as well, but then faded to close a
the 10 day EMA for the week. Still very good action.
NASDAQ and SOX: Both sold back as we anticipated for SOX, and both held the
50 day EMA, both bouncing and then re-tapping at the 50 day EMA late week.
Not out of the woods but showing they can hold up.
RUTX and SP400: Both put in higher highs on the week, then tested back to
end the week. That test gave up the new highs as many smaller issues in
metals, energy that had moved higher struggled late week. Still in very
good position to hold and put in new highs once more in a replay of the last
test back.
LEADERSHIP
As noted, many groups are sporting some good looking patterns. Biotech,
chips, tech, telecom, manufacturing, some oil, financial, software. The
possible leadership is there if it will step up.
FAANG: FB double tapped the 50 day MA's, bounced Friday. AAPL sagged all
week and was lower Friday; not great for the upside. AMZN is buying WFM and
it gapped up off its second doji at the 50 day MA. GOOG is showing a double
tap at the 50 day EMA as well.
Chips: AAOI, MRVL, NVDA are not bad at all. AVGO so-so. QRVO not great.
SLAB, SWKS stink, but SLAB is in the same pattern as RTEC as of its Thursday
close and RTEC surged upside Friday.
China: NTES still looks decent, bouncing off the 50 day EMA test. SINA at
its 50 day MA test. SOHU in a double bottom at the 61% Fibonacci
retracement.
Manufacturing: DE, CAT breaking higher. HOLI ready to roll higher in its
range. Very interesting.
Biotech: CLVS, BLUE, VRTX -- some really good patterns.
Telecom: Getting interesting, e.g. VIAV, CIEN.
Financial: Still some nice pullbacks, e.g. TCBI, OZRK. Very nice.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +24.38 points (+0.11%) to close at 21384.28
Nasdaq
Stats: -13.74 points (-0.22%) to close at 6151.76
Volume: 3.13B (+68.28%)
Up Volume: 1.27B (+755.92M)
Down Volume: 1.52B (+200M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.22 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.78 to 1
New Highs: 75 (+18)
New Lows: 60 (-11)
S&P
Stats: +0.69 points (+0.03%) to close at 2433.15
NYSE Volume: 2.3B (+177.51%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.36 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.61 to 1
New Highs: 131 (+34)
New Lows: 73 (-2)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 10.38; -0.52
VXN: 16.3; +0.1
VXO: 8.89; -0.84
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.09; +0.11. Jumped back over 1.0 on the close but
this was more a function of expiration.
Bulls and Bears: Bouncing up and down after hitting over 60 for several
weeks in the spring. This kind of yo-yo action shows a confused and
apprehensive investor class. Looks as if those weeks in the 60's is taking
its toll.
Bulls: 50.0 versus 55.8 versus 50.0
Bears: 18.6 versus 18.3
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 50.00 versus 55.8
55.8 versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus
54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7 versus 53.4
versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8
versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8
versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9
versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2
Bears: 18.6 versus 18.3
18.3 versus 19.2 versus 18.3 versus 17.1 versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9
versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75
versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6
versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6
versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7
versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1
versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.155% versus 2.162%. Bonds gapped higher Wednesday, held it
post-FOMC, and added upside Friday. Really does not make a lot of sense if
the Fed has all under control and is hiking rates.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.162%
versus 2.209% versus 2.21% versus 2.21% versus 2.19% versus 2.176% versus
2.14% versus 2.183% versus 2.154% versus 2.21% versus 2.20% 2.26% versus
2.255% versus 2.252% versus 2.287% versus 2.254% versus 2.233% versus 2.229%
versus 2.223% versus 2.32% versus 2.34% versus 2.34% versus 2.393% versus
2.401% versus 2.394% versus 2.381% versus 2.354% versus 2.322% versus 2.289%
versus 2.322% versus 2.30% versus 2.31% versus 2.33% versus 2.275% versus
2.236% versus 2.234% versus 2.21% versus 2.15% versus 2.248% versus 2.232%
versus 2.264% versus 2.30% versus 2.36%
EUR/USD: 1.11968 versus 1.11466. After a rough Thursday, the euro
rebounded to hold the 20 day EMA and the trend Friday.
Historical: 1.11466 versus 1.12213 versus 1.12086 versus 1.11930 versus
1.11965 versus 1.1199 versus 1.12491 versus 1.12798 versus 1.12684 versus
1.12811 versus 1.12181 versus 1.12547 versus 1.11768 versus 1.11810 versus
1.12148 versus 1.12240 versus 1.11868 versus 1.12390 versus 1.11916 versus
1.23077 versus 1.10985 versus 1.11557 versus 1.10862 versus 1.09833 versus
1.09328 versus 1.08655 versus 1.08671 versus 1.08843 versus 1.09286 versus
1.09994 versus 1.09086 versus 1.08923 versus 1.09284 versus 1.090984 versus
1.08987 versus 1.08691 versus 1.09093 versus 1.09358 versus 1.08449 versus
1.07255 versus 1.07255 versus 1.07188 versus 1.0717 versus 1.07304 versus
1.06431 versus 1.06138 versus 1.0671 versus 1.06068 versus 1.05984
USD/JPY: 110.873 versus 110.854. Dollar surged to the 50 day MA Thursday
then stalled a bit Friday. Big move off the lows, will see where it goes
from here.
Historical: 110.854 versus 109.560 versus 110.060 versus 109.97 versus
110.334 versus 110.299 versus 109.355 versus 110.038 versus 110.446 versus
111.595 versus 110.909 versus 111.086 versus 111.217 versus 111.828 versus
111.678 versus 111.835 versus 111.076 versus 111.534 versus 111.271 versus
111.584 versus 111.167 versus 112.414 versus 113.074 versus 113.749 versus
113.349 versus 113.759 versus 114.263 versus 113.771 versus 113.217 versus
112.683 versus 112.495 versus 112.782 versus 112.779 versus 111.793 versus
111.524 versus 111.197 versus 111. 177 versus 111.234 versus 109.704
Oil: 44.97, +0.51. Trying to bounce off a bit deeper test in the range.
Still over the 43ish level that is the bottom.
Gold: 1256.50, +1.90. Sold on the week, surged Wednesday, but then dropped
post-FOMC. That makes more sense.
MONDAY
Okay the PPT entered, blunted the selloff two Fridays back, bought time for
the big NASDAQ stocks to hold support. As that occurred, money moved into
DJ30 and pushed it and the other NYSE indices to new highs though only DJ30
held it through Friday. That makes sense: as the leading NASDAQ and SOX
test the 50 day MA after pretty amazing moves higher, the other indices that
lagged took to leadership and put in their own new highs. Rotation.
Now we see if the double taps at support on many of the FAANG, large tech,
semiconductor stocks holds and they too move back up after a 50 day MA test.
Recall, that is the 'normal' scenario in a trend higher: a series of moves
up the 10 and/or 20 day EMA, then after 4 to 5 such moves, a deeper test of
the 50 day MA. If the trend is to hold, that acts as support and starts a
new set of moves up to and over the 10 and 20 day EMA.
If they can move up and the NYSE indices move up as well, that is a powerful
combination and upsets the 'market rally over' predictions and calls. We
like the patterns we see enough that we are putting all upside on the report
this weekend. Now we see if these nice looking patterns can deliver nice
looking breakouts.
Have a great weekend and Father's Day!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 6151.76
Resistance:
6205 is the late May all-time high
6341.70 is the Friday all-time high.
Support:
The 50 day EMA at 6099
6170 is the recent all-time high
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
The 2016 trendline at 5946
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
5800 from the February consolidation lows
5661 is the late January upper gap point
The 200 day SMA at 5631
5601 is the January lower gap point
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
S&P 500: Closed at 2433.15
Resistance:
2439 is the all-time closing high
The 2016 trendline at 2464
Support:
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2399
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
The 200 day SMA at 2280
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
Dow: Closed at 21,384.28
Resistance:
Support:
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 20,978
20,553 is the lows of the week of May 15
20,547 is the lower gap point from late April 2017
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,400 is the mid-April 2017 low.
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
The 200 day SMA at 19,821
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
19,732 is the January 2017 low
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
End part 1 of 3
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6/17/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
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Targets hit: SEDG; SQ
Entry alerts: AAPL
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: DIOD
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- SOX, NASDAQ take the break from their runs to new highs, DJ30 and NYSE
indices fill in upside while they do.
- FOMC, Trump allegations, crappy economic data take a toll, perhaps not as
deadly as some would believe.
- Still plenty of patterns in leadership, others ready to move higher.
- Plunge protection worked again? We will know more this week.
The past week continued the floundering for the NASDAQ and SOX that started
the prior Friday. This while DJ30 broke to new highs while the other NYSE
indices fell in line behind it with some new highs though they tested to end
the week.
SP500 0.69, 0.03%
NASDAQ -13.74, -0.22%
DJ30 24.38, 0.11%
SP400 0.01%
RUTX -0.24%
SOX -0.33%
VOLUME: NYSE +180%, NASDAQ +70%
A/D: NYSE 1.4:1, NASDAQ -1.2:1
It was not great action as many leaders from the recent highs struggled. At
the same time, other stocks are trying to step up to leadership. Some of
those are making it stick (e.g. manufacturing), some could not (some oil,
some metals). Even so, most held the line, even those prior leaders that
sold rather hard in the tech and chip sectors.
So, the market had to deal with the FOMC decision to hike rates 25BP and,
more importantly, outline a fairly specific plan for reducing its balance
sheet by $600B. It also had to deal with new allegations the President is
being investigated for obstruction, apparently with regard to his 'give the
buy a break' comments about Flynn to Comey after Flynn was fired from his
post. To top it off, the economic data was relatively crappy. The regional
manufacturing sentiment surveys were decent, but Housing starts plunged
5.5%, retail sales showed the biggest drop in 16 months, the CPI dropped
sharply (not bad in our view), and Michigan sentiment for June missed
expectations with a 94.5 reading, well off its highs the past several
months.
With all that great news and on the heels of SOX and NASDAQ breaking to new
highs, a test is not that surprising. Recall a couple of weeks back I
commented SOX was due for a test after such a solid, steady 3 week move to
new highs. And, while they took a break, the other indices could lead
higher. Didn't think it would be DJ30, but there you go. Okay, SOX is
taking the break and holding the 50 day EMA in the process. Oh my what a
massive disaster. Similar for NASDAQ as it sold to the 50 day EMA on the
Monday low, bounced, then double tapped back at the 50 day on the Thursday
low. Many of the big name NASDAQ stocks of course show the same action.
Even as those two tested, DJ30 put in new highs as did SP500, SP400 and
RUTX. It's just that the Dow held its higher highs while the others tested
late week with the various news stories.
That is not horrible action. Indeed, sifting through the pullback for this
weekend we found many, many good-looking patterns that could deliver solid
new moves upside. Some from new sectors, some from old sectors setting up
after pullbacks. Basically there are possibilities from a wide range of
market sectors, not a bad indication for the upside at all.
Expiration surged volume on the exchanges and we did take the rest of the
June options, banking some solid 300+% on SQ's options and SEDG's 90+% on
its June options. We also put some money downside on AAPL; I know, heresy,
but it looks the most likely of the FAANG to not move back up.
All in all it was a week where the bears could say 'told you so,' but a very
hollow statement. There are still a lot of good patterns out there and the
tech stocks that looked assured to break down held support and even set up
short upside-looking patterns. Perhaps they still break down but they are
showing they are not easy outs. Could it be that the plunge protection team
was successful again? Another selloff from two Fridays back averted, giving
the signal and the time for the bids to return? How stocks respond this
week will tell more of that tale.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
DJ30: Punched out a new high two Fridays back and continued higher through
Friday. Taking over for NASDAQ and SOX as they tested.
SP500: New high Tuesday, early Wednesday as well, but then faded to close a
the 10 day EMA for the week. Still very good action.
NASDAQ and SOX: Both sold back as we anticipated for SOX, and both held the
50 day EMA, both bouncing and then re-tapping at the 50 day EMA late week.
Not out of the woods but showing they can hold up.
RUTX and SP400: Both put in higher highs on the week, then tested back to
end the week. That test gave up the new highs as many smaller issues in
metals, energy that had moved higher struggled late week. Still in very
good position to hold and put in new highs once more in a replay of the last
test back.
LEADERSHIP
As noted, many groups are sporting some good looking patterns. Biotech,
chips, tech, telecom, manufacturing, some oil, financial, software. The
possible leadership is there if it will step up.
FAANG: FB double tapped the 50 day MA's, bounced Friday. AAPL sagged all
week and was lower Friday; not great for the upside. AMZN is buying WFM and
it gapped up off its second doji at the 50 day MA. GOOG is showing a double
tap at the 50 day EMA as well.
Chips: AAOI, MRVL, NVDA are not bad at all. AVGO so-so. QRVO not great.
SLAB, SWKS stink, but SLAB is in the same pattern as RTEC as of its Thursday
close and RTEC surged upside Friday.
China: NTES still looks decent, bouncing off the 50 day EMA test. SINA at
its 50 day MA test. SOHU in a double bottom at the 61% Fibonacci
retracement.
Manufacturing: DE, CAT breaking higher. HOLI ready to roll higher in its
range. Very interesting.
Biotech: CLVS, BLUE, VRTX -- some really good patterns.
Telecom: Getting interesting, e.g. VIAV, CIEN.
Financial: Still some nice pullbacks, e.g. TCBI, OZRK. Very nice.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +24.38 points (+0.11%) to close at 21384.28
Nasdaq
Stats: -13.74 points (-0.22%) to close at 6151.76
Volume: 3.13B (+68.28%)
Up Volume: 1.27B (+755.92M)
Down Volume: 1.52B (+200M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.22 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.78 to 1
New Highs: 75 (+18)
New Lows: 60 (-11)
S&P
Stats: +0.69 points (+0.03%) to close at 2433.15
NYSE Volume: 2.3B (+177.51%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.36 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.61 to 1
New Highs: 131 (+34)
New Lows: 73 (-2)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 10.38; -0.52
VXN: 16.3; +0.1
VXO: 8.89; -0.84
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.09; +0.11. Jumped back over 1.0 on the close but
this was more a function of expiration.
Bulls and Bears: Bouncing up and down after hitting over 60 for several
weeks in the spring. This kind of yo-yo action shows a confused and
apprehensive investor class. Looks as if those weeks in the 60's is taking
its toll.
Bulls: 50.0 versus 55.8 versus 50.0
Bears: 18.6 versus 18.3
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 50.00 versus 55.8
55.8 versus 50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus
54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7 versus 53.4
versus 57.7 versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8
versus 58.2 versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8
versus 59.6 versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9
versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2
Bears: 18.6 versus 18.3
18.3 versus 19.2 versus 18.3 versus 17.1 versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9
versus 18.3 versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75
versus 17.3 versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6
versus 17.5 versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6
versus 19.2 versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7
versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1
versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.155% versus 2.162%. Bonds gapped higher Wednesday, held it
post-FOMC, and added upside Friday. Really does not make a lot of sense if
the Fed has all under control and is hiking rates.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.162%
versus 2.209% versus 2.21% versus 2.21% versus 2.19% versus 2.176% versus
2.14% versus 2.183% versus 2.154% versus 2.21% versus 2.20% 2.26% versus
2.255% versus 2.252% versus 2.287% versus 2.254% versus 2.233% versus 2.229%
versus 2.223% versus 2.32% versus 2.34% versus 2.34% versus 2.393% versus
2.401% versus 2.394% versus 2.381% versus 2.354% versus 2.322% versus 2.289%
versus 2.322% versus 2.30% versus 2.31% versus 2.33% versus 2.275% versus
2.236% versus 2.234% versus 2.21% versus 2.15% versus 2.248% versus 2.232%
versus 2.264% versus 2.30% versus 2.36%
EUR/USD: 1.11968 versus 1.11466. After a rough Thursday, the euro
rebounded to hold the 20 day EMA and the trend Friday.
Historical: 1.11466 versus 1.12213 versus 1.12086 versus 1.11930 versus
1.11965 versus 1.1199 versus 1.12491 versus 1.12798 versus 1.12684 versus
1.12811 versus 1.12181 versus 1.12547 versus 1.11768 versus 1.11810 versus
1.12148 versus 1.12240 versus 1.11868 versus 1.12390 versus 1.11916 versus
1.23077 versus 1.10985 versus 1.11557 versus 1.10862 versus 1.09833 versus
1.09328 versus 1.08655 versus 1.08671 versus 1.08843 versus 1.09286 versus
1.09994 versus 1.09086 versus 1.08923 versus 1.09284 versus 1.090984 versus
1.08987 versus 1.08691 versus 1.09093 versus 1.09358 versus 1.08449 versus
1.07255 versus 1.07255 versus 1.07188 versus 1.0717 versus 1.07304 versus
1.06431 versus 1.06138 versus 1.0671 versus 1.06068 versus 1.05984
USD/JPY: 110.873 versus 110.854. Dollar surged to the 50 day MA Thursday
then stalled a bit Friday. Big move off the lows, will see where it goes
from here.
Historical: 110.854 versus 109.560 versus 110.060 versus 109.97 versus
110.334 versus 110.299 versus 109.355 versus 110.038 versus 110.446 versus
111.595 versus 110.909 versus 111.086 versus 111.217 versus 111.828 versus
111.678 versus 111.835 versus 111.076 versus 111.534 versus 111.271 versus
111.584 versus 111.167 versus 112.414 versus 113.074 versus 113.749 versus
113.349 versus 113.759 versus 114.263 versus 113.771 versus 113.217 versus
112.683 versus 112.495 versus 112.782 versus 112.779 versus 111.793 versus
111.524 versus 111.197 versus 111. 177 versus 111.234 versus 109.704
Oil: 44.97, +0.51. Trying to bounce off a bit deeper test in the range.
Still over the 43ish level that is the bottom.
Gold: 1256.50, +1.90. Sold on the week, surged Wednesday, but then dropped
post-FOMC. That makes more sense.
MONDAY
Okay the PPT entered, blunted the selloff two Fridays back, bought time for
the big NASDAQ stocks to hold support. As that occurred, money moved into
DJ30 and pushed it and the other NYSE indices to new highs though only DJ30
held it through Friday. That makes sense: as the leading NASDAQ and SOX
test the 50 day MA after pretty amazing moves higher, the other indices that
lagged took to leadership and put in their own new highs. Rotation.
Now we see if the double taps at support on many of the FAANG, large tech,
semiconductor stocks holds and they too move back up after a 50 day MA test.
Recall, that is the 'normal' scenario in a trend higher: a series of moves
up the 10 and/or 20 day EMA, then after 4 to 5 such moves, a deeper test of
the 50 day MA. If the trend is to hold, that acts as support and starts a
new set of moves up to and over the 10 and 20 day EMA.
If they can move up and the NYSE indices move up as well, that is a powerful
combination and upsets the 'market rally over' predictions and calls. We
like the patterns we see enough that we are putting all upside on the report
this weekend. Now we see if these nice looking patterns can deliver nice
looking breakouts.
Have a great weekend and Father's Day!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 6151.76
Resistance:
6205 is the late May all-time high
6341.70 is the Friday all-time high.
Support:
The 50 day EMA at 6099
6170 is the recent all-time high
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
The 2016 trendline at 5946
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
5800 from the February consolidation lows
5661 is the late January upper gap point
The 200 day SMA at 5631
5601 is the January lower gap point
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
S&P 500: Closed at 2433.15
Resistance:
2439 is the all-time closing high
The 2016 trendline at 2464
Support:
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2399
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
The 200 day SMA at 2280
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
Dow: Closed at 21,384.28
Resistance:
Support:
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 20,978
20,553 is the lows of the week of May 15
20,547 is the lower gap point from late April 2017
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,400 is the mid-April 2017 low.
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
The 200 day SMA at 19,821
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
19,732 is the January 2017 low
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
Sunday, June 11, 2017
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 6-10-17
* * * *
6/10/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: NOW
Entry alerts: MXL
Trailing stops: AAPL; ASUR; AVGO; BRKS; DATA; MRVL; NVDA
Stop alerts: AMBA; AMZN; HIIQ; LSCC; NFLX; TTWO
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Market survives the triumvirate of events, but GS 'air pocket' worries
skewer FAANG, big tech, chips.
- DJ30 cruises to a new high as does RUTX while NASDAQ, SOX are rocked.
- Rotation for sure on Friday, but will it last or will the big tech and
FAANG selling be, again, another short term selling event as all the others?
- Plenty of leaders into early 2017 are set up to lead again.
There were some big events hitting on the week, potentially market moving
events. Comey's testimony would expose Trump as a heavy handed justice
obstructionist. CNN had already reported same weeks ago. Didn't happen.
Indeed, some of those pushing the testimony came out in worse light than the
President. The ECB might upset things with its policy decision. The market
yawned. The UK election was worrisome in that May lost her majority, but
stocks were up Friday early on even in the wake of the UK vote.
None of those stalled the move. It took something else. Something of
authority.
Friday the FAANG, big techs, semiconductors, software, and the like turned
and bit the hand that buys them. Goldman issued a report suggesting the
FAANG hit a 'valuation air pocket' (not to be confused with the strangely
popular Hot Pocket). After FAANG accounted for roughly 55% of NASDAQ's move
this year, GS got nervous. With so many fund managers in a state of
constant petrification regarding stock values, all they needed was an excuse
to sell. It would appear that after several leading fund managers voiced
their concerns, GS was the final 'authority.' Stocks from NASDAQ and SOX
tumbled. Hard. The rest of the market? Nothing. Indeed, DJ30, SP400, and
RUTX scored gains while the market spilled tech blood.
SP500 -2.02, -0.08%
NASDAQ -113.84, -1.80%
DJ30 89.44, 0.42%
SP400 0.39%
RUTX 0.43%
SOX -4.23%
NASDAQ 100 -2.44%
VOLUME: NYSE +11%, NASDAQ +47%. Huge NASDAQ volume shows very aggressive
selling action.
A/D: NYSE 1.6:1, NASDAQ 1.03:1. Yes, NASDAQ breadth was positive on a day
it lost 1.8%. That is the definition of a narrow, large cap selloff. The
money came in and pushed them higher and higher, and Friday it fled the
scene.
Sharp declines for NASDAQ and SOX, but it was not a collapse. NASDAQ
recovered, as did all stocks, in the last 1.5 hours, holding the 20 day EMA
on the close. SOX did the same.
Of course DJ30 put in a new all-time high. SP400 rallied to a new high but
just could not quite hold a new closing high past the March peak. SP500
tapped the 20 day EMA on the low then rebounded to flat, holding its lateral
range for the week just over the 10 day EMA. It did put in a new high
intraday. RUTX did manage to hold a new all-time closing high. Two new
closing highs, new intraday highs on all the NYSE indices.
New highs on some indices as others are ripped open to the downside. No
doubt FAANG and tech stocks were dumped, but others were bought as they were
sold. Sure looks like rotation versus abandoning the market.
That make some sense if you are crediting the GS release with the move: dump
the 'air pocket' stocks and go with other areas. As seen with the plays
this weekend, there are a LOT of leadership plays that posted great moves
into the first of the year that have tested while FAANG and SOX ran higher.
They are in excellent position to make new moves higher and resume their
leadership.
Just another hiccup?
There is also something else to consider: yes Friday resulted in sharp
losses for the FAANG and tech stocks and on strong volume. They were
dumped.
But . . . this has occurred before. Recall the litany of technical
breakdowns I have chronicled just to see stocks reverse right back up. Even
on the Friday selling, in the last 1.5 hours NASDAQ and SOX recovered their
20 day EMA, moving nicely off the lows. AMZN reversed big after
undercutting its 50 day MA's. FB bounced off a 50 day EMA test; it fell to
the 50 day MA in mid-May in an ugly gap and drop, but it immediately
rebounded and moved to new highs yet again. AAPL managed to hold the 50 day
MA after undercutting it. NFLX bounced off the 50 day on its low.
Wow, could the plunge protection team be on the move again, driving these
indices and stocks back up and blunting the selloff?
These were not utter collapses, and that raises the question of whether
these stocks got it out of their system, cleared the pipes so to speak, and
can once again move higher. Unlike some of prior selloffs that recovered,
this one saw these stocks in pretty solid technical position. More reason
to watch for a possible short term upheaval that sees buying return.
So, if positions recovered decently enough we kept them, though with the
wild moves it was not the easiest task. Others we sold. If, however, it is
just a short-lived jerk lower, those that held support are in good position
to rebound as well.
Of course, at some point they won't recover. This was not, however, the
entire market, and if money rotates elsewhere you can see the market
continue its move with other groups moving into the lead. There are many
non-FAANG, non-tech stocks that rallied well into the first part of 2017
only to peak and then fade into bases while FAANG, tech, and chips led the
charge higher. Now they are set to move higher, and as money comes out of
those recently leading groups that many managers so feared, these stocks and
sectors could rise and return to leadership.
Thus, we have several of these plays on the report for this coming week.
Great patterns where bases have formed after runs to highs, ready to move
higher. As money comes out of the recent leaders, these are primed to move.
We will see if they get the money or if the money is yanked from the market
altogether. Not the case Friday when everyone was really spooked, so that
makes the rotation theory look a bit better.
THE MARKET
LEADERSHIP
Semis: The big movers were targets. NVDA gapped higher on another upgrade
then reversed. But it held the 10 day EMA. AVGO sold hard but landed on
the 20 day EMA. MU held the 20 day on the close. Same with SWKS, SLAB.
SIMO held the 10 day EMA. RTEC hard to the 10 day. NPTN down but held up
well; of course it has not surged as have the others. Not a total rout as
they held onto near support. That leaves them in position to rebound, IF
the buyers still want them, if, as it were, this was enough of an air
pocket.
FAANG: FB sold to the 50 day EMA but bounced off it; that level has held as
support before. AAPL sold below the 50 day MA but did manage a rebound to
hold it. AMZN tumbled 80 points and undercut the 50 day MA only to rebound
to a 32 point loss. NFLX tested the 50 day MA and rebounded some. GOOG
undercut the 20 day EMA and could not quite recapture it on the rebound.
Down hard but did see some buyers off the lows in the last hour.
China: As leaders they were hit as well. NTES held the 10 day EMA on a 3%
drop. SOHU sold to the 20 day EMA. SINA continued its test, holding the 50
day EMA on the low. CTRP sold to the 20 day EMA. Here as with FAANG, the
selling was sharp, but there were some recoveries.
Financial: Seeing money their way. JPM, C, BAC, TCBI, KEY.
Metals: Not a great day but still some good patterns, e.g. AKS, SCHN, FCX,
CENX.
Oil stocks: Some nice setups and moves. ATW continues improving. CVX is
surging up off the lows. HAL could be in a double bottom. JAG caught our
attention as a new issue.
Construction/Engineering: JEC breaking higher. MDR moving off a good
consolidation. Getting some money.
Manufacturing: DAKT in an interesting pattern. MTW very interesting.
HOLI. Some patterns that could yield good upside.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +89.44 points (+0.42%) to close at 21271.97
Nasdaq
Stats: -113.85 points (-1.8%) to close at 6207.92
Volume: 3.15B (+47.2%)
Up Volume: 1.24B (-250M)
Down Volume: 1.88B (+1.276B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.03 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.02 to 1
New Highs: 246 (+64)
New Lows: 35 (-17)
S&P
Stats: -2.02 points (-0.08%) to close at 2431.77
NYSE Volume: 1B (+11.11%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.61 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.41 to 1
New Highs: 208 (+67)
New Lows: 32 (-25)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 10.7; +0.54
VXN: 18.13; +4.47
VXO: 10.39; +0.97
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.06; +0.36. A bit of fear returned to the market.
Bulls and Bears: The opposite effect? Bulls fell as the market rallied and
now the bulls rally back as the market sold. Okay, it was Friday selling
and that happened well after the survey. Bears fell right back down to
again close at 18.3.
Bulls: 55.8 versus 50.0
Bears: 18.3 versus 19.2
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 55.8 versus 50.00
50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus
51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7 versus 53.4 versus 57.7
versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2
versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6
versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7
versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2
Bears: 18.3 versus 19.2
19.2 versus 18.3 versus 17.1 versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9 versus 18.3
versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75 versus 17.3
versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5
versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2
versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3
versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.21% versus 2.19%. Bonds faded again, but held over the 20 day EMA.
Still in a test of the break higher and still in an upside pattern.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.19%
versus 2.176% versus 2.14% versus 2.183% versus 2.154% versus 2.21% versus
2.20% 2.26% versus 2.255% versus 2.252% versus 2.287% versus 2.254% versus
2.233% versus 2.229% versus 2.223% versus 2.32% versus 2.34% versus 2.34%
versus 2.393% versus 2.401% versus 2.394% versus 2.381% versus 2.354% versus
2.322% versus 2.289% versus 2.322% versus 2.30% versus 2.31% versus 2.33%
versus 2.275% versus 2.236% versus 2.234% versus 2.21% versus 2.15% versus
2.248% versus 2.232% versus 2.264% versus 2.30% versus 2.36% versus 2.37%
versus 2.34% versus 2.33% versus 2.34% versus 2.33% versus 2.35% versus
2.40% versus 2.41% versus 2.382% versus 2.418% versus 2.376% versus 2.40%
versus 2.41% versus 2.40% versus 2.43% versus 2.463% versus 2.50% versus
2.529% versus 2.502% versus 2.602
EUR/USD: 1.11965 versus 1.11990. Nice doji at the 20 day EMA as the euro
maintains its uptrend.
Historical: 1.1199 versus 1.12491 versus 1.12798 versus 1.12684 versus
1.12811 versus 1.12181 versus 1.12547 versus 1.11768 versus 1.11810 versus
1.12148 versus 1.12240 versus 1.11868 versus 1.12390 versus 1.11916 versus
1.23077 versus 1.10985 versus 1.11557 versus 1.10862 versus 1.09833 versus
1.09328 versus 1.08655 versus 1.08671 versus 1.08843 versus 1.09286 versus
1.09994 versus 1.09086 versus 1.08923 versus 1.09284 versus 1.090984 versus
1.08987 versus 1.08691 versus 1.09093 versus 1.09358 versus 1.08449 versus
1.07255 versus 1.07255 versus 1.07188 versus 1.0717 versus 1.07304 versus
1.06431 versus 1.06138 versus 1.0671 versus 1.06068 versus 1.05984
USD/JPY: 110.334 versus 110.299. Rallied Wednesday to Friday, showing a
doji Friday at some resistance.
Historical: 110.299 versus 109.355 versus 110.038 versus 110.446 versus
111.595 versus 110.909 versus 111.086 versus 111.217 versus 111.828 versus
111.678 versus 111.835 versus 111.076 versus 111.534 versus 111.271 versus
111.584 versus 111.167 versus 112.414 versus 113.074 versus 113.749 versus
113.349 versus 113.759 versus 114.263 versus 113.771 versus 113.217 versus
112.683 versus 112.495 versus 112.782 versus 112.779 versus 111.793 versus
111.524 versus 111.197 versus 111. 177 versus 111.234 versus 109.704
Oil: 45.83, +0.19. Second doji at the May lows. Trying to make a rebound?
Gold: 1271.40, -8.10. Faded in a 1-2-3 drop off the high that matched the
April high. Key test now for the upside move for gold.
MONDAY
Friday was the start of some rotation. Will it be the end of it? With the
good patterns in manufacturing, construction, and other 'old economy' stocks
and sectors, it would not be surprising at all for those to continue seeing
money flow their way and break them higher.
If money is not leaving the market, it will seek other areas, and the likely
candidates are those that are under quiet accumulation during the ascent of
the FAANG et al. Many of those managers lamenting the surge in the narrow
leadership have likely put money into these other areas, hence the
accumulation patterns. We anticipate seeing them make breaks higher, and
the plays on the report this weekend reflect that.
Not that the recent leaders are out of the upside mix. As noted, many
managed to hold onto near support and as has been in the past, could bounce
right on up again. The plunge protection team was working hard the last
hour Friday and we will see if the managers try buying the big names again.
If not, will the PPT move back in?
Whether the PPT acts or not, if the recent leaders move back up, we have
some still in the portfolio, and we can always move into some more if they
hold and money just cannot resist them.
Interesting for certain, some good patterns in other sectors have built up
to breakouts, other areas are trying to turn up after a long time of
weakness. And there is FAANG and company. We will see where the money
goes, as it has not, as of yet, decided to totally leave the market.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 6207.92
Resistance:
6341.70 is the Friday all-time high.
Support:
6205 is the late May all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 6081
6170 is the recent all-time high
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
The 2016 trendline at 5925
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
5800 from the February consolidation lows
5661 is the late January upper gap point
The 200 day SMA at 5614
5601 is the January lower gap point
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
S&P 500: Closed at 2431.77
Resistance:
2439 is the all-time closing high
The 2016 trendline at 2453
Support:
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2391
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The 200 day SMA at 2274
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
Dow: Closed at 21,271.97
Resistance:
Support:
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 20,898
20,553 is the lows of the week of May 15
20,547 is the lower gap point from late April 2017
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,400 is the mid-April 2017 low.
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
The 200 day SMA at 19,749
19,732 is the January 2017 low
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
End part 1 of 3
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Market survives the triumvirate of events, but GS 'air pocket' worries
skewer FAANG, big tech, chips.
- DJ30 cruises to a new high as does RUTX while NASDAQ, SOX are rocked.
- Rotation for sure on Friday, but will it last or will the big tech and
FAANG selling be, again, another short term selling event as all the others?
- Plenty of leaders into early 2017 are set up to lead again.
There were some big events hitting on the week, potentially market moving
events. Comey's testimony would expose Trump as a heavy handed justice
obstructionist. CNN had already reported same weeks ago. Didn't happen.
Indeed, some of those pushing the testimony came out in worse light than the
President. The ECB might upset things with its policy decision. The market
yawned. The UK election was worrisome in that May lost her majority, but
stocks were up Friday early on even in the wake of the UK vote.
None of those stalled the move. It took something else. Something of
authority.
Friday the FAANG, big techs, semiconductors, software, and the like turned
and bit the hand that buys them. Goldman issued a report suggesting the
FAANG hit a 'valuation air pocket' (not to be confused with the strangely
popular Hot Pocket). After FAANG accounted for roughly 55% of NASDAQ's move
this year, GS got nervous. With so many fund managers in a state of
constant petrification regarding stock values, all they needed was an excuse
to sell. It would appear that after several leading fund managers voiced
their concerns, GS was the final 'authority.' Stocks from NASDAQ and SOX
tumbled. Hard. The rest of the market? Nothing. Indeed, DJ30, SP400, and
RUTX scored gains while the market spilled tech blood.
SP500 -2.02, -0.08%
NASDAQ -113.84, -1.80%
DJ30 89.44, 0.42%
SP400 0.39%
RUTX 0.43%
SOX -4.23%
NASDAQ 100 -2.44%
VOLUME: NYSE +11%, NASDAQ +47%. Huge NASDAQ volume shows very aggressive
selling action.
A/D: NYSE 1.6:1, NASDAQ 1.03:1. Yes, NASDAQ breadth was positive on a day
it lost 1.8%. That is the definition of a narrow, large cap selloff. The
money came in and pushed them higher and higher, and Friday it fled the
scene.
Sharp declines for NASDAQ and SOX, but it was not a collapse. NASDAQ
recovered, as did all stocks, in the last 1.5 hours, holding the 20 day EMA
on the close. SOX did the same.
Of course DJ30 put in a new all-time high. SP400 rallied to a new high but
just could not quite hold a new closing high past the March peak. SP500
tapped the 20 day EMA on the low then rebounded to flat, holding its lateral
range for the week just over the 10 day EMA. It did put in a new high
intraday. RUTX did manage to hold a new all-time closing high. Two new
closing highs, new intraday highs on all the NYSE indices.
New highs on some indices as others are ripped open to the downside. No
doubt FAANG and tech stocks were dumped, but others were bought as they were
sold. Sure looks like rotation versus abandoning the market.
That make some sense if you are crediting the GS release with the move: dump
the 'air pocket' stocks and go with other areas. As seen with the plays
this weekend, there are a LOT of leadership plays that posted great moves
into the first of the year that have tested while FAANG and SOX ran higher.
They are in excellent position to make new moves higher and resume their
leadership.
Just another hiccup?
There is also something else to consider: yes Friday resulted in sharp
losses for the FAANG and tech stocks and on strong volume. They were
dumped.
But . . . this has occurred before. Recall the litany of technical
breakdowns I have chronicled just to see stocks reverse right back up. Even
on the Friday selling, in the last 1.5 hours NASDAQ and SOX recovered their
20 day EMA, moving nicely off the lows. AMZN reversed big after
undercutting its 50 day MA's. FB bounced off a 50 day EMA test; it fell to
the 50 day MA in mid-May in an ugly gap and drop, but it immediately
rebounded and moved to new highs yet again. AAPL managed to hold the 50 day
MA after undercutting it. NFLX bounced off the 50 day on its low.
Wow, could the plunge protection team be on the move again, driving these
indices and stocks back up and blunting the selloff?
These were not utter collapses, and that raises the question of whether
these stocks got it out of their system, cleared the pipes so to speak, and
can once again move higher. Unlike some of prior selloffs that recovered,
this one saw these stocks in pretty solid technical position. More reason
to watch for a possible short term upheaval that sees buying return.
So, if positions recovered decently enough we kept them, though with the
wild moves it was not the easiest task. Others we sold. If, however, it is
just a short-lived jerk lower, those that held support are in good position
to rebound as well.
Of course, at some point they won't recover. This was not, however, the
entire market, and if money rotates elsewhere you can see the market
continue its move with other groups moving into the lead. There are many
non-FAANG, non-tech stocks that rallied well into the first part of 2017
only to peak and then fade into bases while FAANG, tech, and chips led the
charge higher. Now they are set to move higher, and as money comes out of
those recently leading groups that many managers so feared, these stocks and
sectors could rise and return to leadership.
Thus, we have several of these plays on the report for this coming week.
Great patterns where bases have formed after runs to highs, ready to move
higher. As money comes out of the recent leaders, these are primed to move.
We will see if they get the money or if the money is yanked from the market
altogether. Not the case Friday when everyone was really spooked, so that
makes the rotation theory look a bit better.
THE MARKET
LEADERSHIP
Semis: The big movers were targets. NVDA gapped higher on another upgrade
then reversed. But it held the 10 day EMA. AVGO sold hard but landed on
the 20 day EMA. MU held the 20 day on the close. Same with SWKS, SLAB.
SIMO held the 10 day EMA. RTEC hard to the 10 day. NPTN down but held up
well; of course it has not surged as have the others. Not a total rout as
they held onto near support. That leaves them in position to rebound, IF
the buyers still want them, if, as it were, this was enough of an air
pocket.
FAANG: FB sold to the 50 day EMA but bounced off it; that level has held as
support before. AAPL sold below the 50 day MA but did manage a rebound to
hold it. AMZN tumbled 80 points and undercut the 50 day MA only to rebound
to a 32 point loss. NFLX tested the 50 day MA and rebounded some. GOOG
undercut the 20 day EMA and could not quite recapture it on the rebound.
Down hard but did see some buyers off the lows in the last hour.
China: As leaders they were hit as well. NTES held the 10 day EMA on a 3%
drop. SOHU sold to the 20 day EMA. SINA continued its test, holding the 50
day EMA on the low. CTRP sold to the 20 day EMA. Here as with FAANG, the
selling was sharp, but there were some recoveries.
Financial: Seeing money their way. JPM, C, BAC, TCBI, KEY.
Metals: Not a great day but still some good patterns, e.g. AKS, SCHN, FCX,
CENX.
Oil stocks: Some nice setups and moves. ATW continues improving. CVX is
surging up off the lows. HAL could be in a double bottom. JAG caught our
attention as a new issue.
Construction/Engineering: JEC breaking higher. MDR moving off a good
consolidation. Getting some money.
Manufacturing: DAKT in an interesting pattern. MTW very interesting.
HOLI. Some patterns that could yield good upside.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +89.44 points (+0.42%) to close at 21271.97
Nasdaq
Stats: -113.85 points (-1.8%) to close at 6207.92
Volume: 3.15B (+47.2%)
Up Volume: 1.24B (-250M)
Down Volume: 1.88B (+1.276B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.03 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.02 to 1
New Highs: 246 (+64)
New Lows: 35 (-17)
S&P
Stats: -2.02 points (-0.08%) to close at 2431.77
NYSE Volume: 1B (+11.11%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.61 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.41 to 1
New Highs: 208 (+67)
New Lows: 32 (-25)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 10.7; +0.54
VXN: 18.13; +4.47
VXO: 10.39; +0.97
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.06; +0.36. A bit of fear returned to the market.
Bulls and Bears: The opposite effect? Bulls fell as the market rallied and
now the bulls rally back as the market sold. Okay, it was Friday selling
and that happened well after the survey. Bears fell right back down to
again close at 18.3.
Bulls: 55.8 versus 50.0
Bears: 18.3 versus 19.2
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 55.8 versus 50.00
50.00 versus 51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus
51.9 versus 56.3 versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7 versus 53.4 versus 57.7
versus 63.1 versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2
versus 60.6 versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6
versus 58.8 versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7
versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2
Bears: 18.3 versus 19.2
19.2 versus 18.3 versus 17.1 versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9 versus 18.3
versus 17.5 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75 versus 17.3
versus 16.5 versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5
versus 17.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2
versus 19.6 versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3
versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.21% versus 2.19%. Bonds faded again, but held over the 20 day EMA.
Still in a test of the break higher and still in an upside pattern.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.19%
versus 2.176% versus 2.14% versus 2.183% versus 2.154% versus 2.21% versus
2.20% 2.26% versus 2.255% versus 2.252% versus 2.287% versus 2.254% versus
2.233% versus 2.229% versus 2.223% versus 2.32% versus 2.34% versus 2.34%
versus 2.393% versus 2.401% versus 2.394% versus 2.381% versus 2.354% versus
2.322% versus 2.289% versus 2.322% versus 2.30% versus 2.31% versus 2.33%
versus 2.275% versus 2.236% versus 2.234% versus 2.21% versus 2.15% versus
2.248% versus 2.232% versus 2.264% versus 2.30% versus 2.36% versus 2.37%
versus 2.34% versus 2.33% versus 2.34% versus 2.33% versus 2.35% versus
2.40% versus 2.41% versus 2.382% versus 2.418% versus 2.376% versus 2.40%
versus 2.41% versus 2.40% versus 2.43% versus 2.463% versus 2.50% versus
2.529% versus 2.502% versus 2.602
EUR/USD: 1.11965 versus 1.11990. Nice doji at the 20 day EMA as the euro
maintains its uptrend.
Historical: 1.1199 versus 1.12491 versus 1.12798 versus 1.12684 versus
1.12811 versus 1.12181 versus 1.12547 versus 1.11768 versus 1.11810 versus
1.12148 versus 1.12240 versus 1.11868 versus 1.12390 versus 1.11916 versus
1.23077 versus 1.10985 versus 1.11557 versus 1.10862 versus 1.09833 versus
1.09328 versus 1.08655 versus 1.08671 versus 1.08843 versus 1.09286 versus
1.09994 versus 1.09086 versus 1.08923 versus 1.09284 versus 1.090984 versus
1.08987 versus 1.08691 versus 1.09093 versus 1.09358 versus 1.08449 versus
1.07255 versus 1.07255 versus 1.07188 versus 1.0717 versus 1.07304 versus
1.06431 versus 1.06138 versus 1.0671 versus 1.06068 versus 1.05984
USD/JPY: 110.334 versus 110.299. Rallied Wednesday to Friday, showing a
doji Friday at some resistance.
Historical: 110.299 versus 109.355 versus 110.038 versus 110.446 versus
111.595 versus 110.909 versus 111.086 versus 111.217 versus 111.828 versus
111.678 versus 111.835 versus 111.076 versus 111.534 versus 111.271 versus
111.584 versus 111.167 versus 112.414 versus 113.074 versus 113.749 versus
113.349 versus 113.759 versus 114.263 versus 113.771 versus 113.217 versus
112.683 versus 112.495 versus 112.782 versus 112.779 versus 111.793 versus
111.524 versus 111.197 versus 111. 177 versus 111.234 versus 109.704
Oil: 45.83, +0.19. Second doji at the May lows. Trying to make a rebound?
Gold: 1271.40, -8.10. Faded in a 1-2-3 drop off the high that matched the
April high. Key test now for the upside move for gold.
MONDAY
Friday was the start of some rotation. Will it be the end of it? With the
good patterns in manufacturing, construction, and other 'old economy' stocks
and sectors, it would not be surprising at all for those to continue seeing
money flow their way and break them higher.
If money is not leaving the market, it will seek other areas, and the likely
candidates are those that are under quiet accumulation during the ascent of
the FAANG et al. Many of those managers lamenting the surge in the narrow
leadership have likely put money into these other areas, hence the
accumulation patterns. We anticipate seeing them make breaks higher, and
the plays on the report this weekend reflect that.
Not that the recent leaders are out of the upside mix. As noted, many
managed to hold onto near support and as has been in the past, could bounce
right on up again. The plunge protection team was working hard the last
hour Friday and we will see if the managers try buying the big names again.
If not, will the PPT move back in?
Whether the PPT acts or not, if the recent leaders move back up, we have
some still in the portfolio, and we can always move into some more if they
hold and money just cannot resist them.
Interesting for certain, some good patterns in other sectors have built up
to breakouts, other areas are trying to turn up after a long time of
weakness. And there is FAANG and company. We will see where the money
goes, as it has not, as of yet, decided to totally leave the market.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 6207.92
Resistance:
6341.70 is the Friday all-time high.
Support:
6205 is the late May all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 6081
6170 is the recent all-time high
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
The 2016 trendline at 5925
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
5800 from the February consolidation lows
5661 is the late January upper gap point
The 200 day SMA at 5614
5601 is the January lower gap point
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
S&P 500: Closed at 2431.77
Resistance:
2439 is the all-time closing high
The 2016 trendline at 2453
Support:
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2391
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The 200 day SMA at 2274
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
Dow: Closed at 21,271.97
Resistance:
Support:
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 20,898
20,553 is the lows of the week of May 15
20,547 is the lower gap point from late April 2017
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,400 is the mid-April 2017 low.
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
The 200 day SMA at 19,749
19,732 is the January 2017 low
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
End part 1 of 3
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Sunday, June 04, 2017
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 6-3-17
* * * *
6/3/2017 Investment House Daily
* * * *
Investment House Daily Subscribers:
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: None issued. Again, we could have taken more gain but stocks
were running.
Entry alerts: LLNW
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEWS/ECONOMY OVERVIEW CLICK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/eco/eco.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- More new highs as jobs report stinks, more gloom forecasts.
- Jobs report misses, internals again show structural collapse of US
employment markets.
- Most new jobs the past 10 years are nothing but fiction -- and low wage
hourly jobs.
- Divorced, for now, from economic reality, markets continue their rise.
Thank goodness employment is lagging, right? The May jobs report was
horrible. At least the ISM/PMI sentiment reports were stronger -- though it
apparently took a phone call to get the Chicago PMI people with the program
as that report, initially a miss, was revised to a beat just over an hour
later. What nerve to go against the 'everything is coming up roses' meme.
Good to see those in power straightened this out quickly enough.
The jobs report, however, could not be fixed. Don't get me wrong: it is not
an accurate portrayal of the US jobs, it is just that things are so
structurally wrong with the jobs market that this miss, as bad as it was, is
still a rosy fiction compared to the reality of the US employment markets.
Okay, with that scenario, stocks rallied. Futures rose solidly ahead of
jobs, took a hit on the numbers and fell back near flat ahead of the bell.
Oh yes, and there were plenty more gloomers out Friday, comparing NASDAQ to
1999 (again) among the other usual doom scenarios. With this rather
pathetic economic performance, that is understandable: what the heck is the
market pricing in at this juncture? The Fed having to back off from hiking
or even ease rates? The yield curve is getting rather stupid again, trying
to invert even as the economy is supposedly just peachy. Hey, the Fed is
there right, so let all the bad news come.
Whatever is out there negative, it didn't matter. Stocks rallied more or
less across the board with more new highs for everyone -- except RUTX and
SP400. They are still bridesmaids on this move.
SP500 +9.01, +0.37%
NASDAQ 58.97, 0.94%
DJ30 62.11, 0.29%
SP400 0.19%
RUTX 1.12%
SOX 0.99%
VOLUME: NYSE -14%, NASDAQ -6%. After a volume spike to end May, trade
dropped Thursday and Friday, falling below average to end the week.
A/D: NYSE +1.4:1, NASDAQ +2:1. How do you spell large cap led move?
FAANG?
This market is like the bumblebee: it should not be able to fly, but it
does. The buy the dip mentality is strong in this move. Engrained now over
8 years, this is a hard habit to break. Selloffs are followed with
recoveries. As sure as Pavlov's dogs salivated when they heard the dinner
bell, Bernake's/Yellen's invest-dogs buy when they see a dip, particularly
after it magically ceases right after a sharp plunge.
There is now also the FOMO syndrome, the 'fear of missing out' buying as
AMZN tops 1000 and other 'household names' hit new highs and drive the
indices higher. How many emails do you get from someone touting how to
become an overnight stock market maven? They know the FOMO mentality is out
there and are taking advantage of it. I remember back over Christmas 1999
at a get together with some of my family and others. Many people who knew
nothing about the stock market commented they had better get in on it
because everyone else was making money doing it. I knew at that point a
major blow off was coming, just had to keep the eyes open for when it showed
up. It did in March 2000.
As I have chronicled several times over the past few weeks, more than a few
times this market should have rolled over in terms of a technical picture.
Yet, there was buying that saved the market. The Plunge Protection Team
gets it started by jumping in on key breaks lower, and when the rest of the
players see the sharp break has been blunted, they move, in. Happened the
past three weeks with that big, nasty Wednesday plunge that suddenly
stopped, and started to climb back. Now, the indices are once again at new
highs after teetering on a breakdown. Magic.
And profitable. We did not bank any gain to end the week. Why do so when
the market just breaks higher again after a short pullback to test? Indeed
we see more upside plays in several of the big names developing even if
breadth is atrocious. We know the market is higher than it should be based
on economics and phony non-GAAP accounting numbers (as the most recent Q1
GDP report showed as profits actually FELL), but we prefer to make money on
the upside even in the purportedly dying throes of the long upside run.
Some like to style it holding your nose and buying. Of course it is not
that, at least if you are interested in really making money with a bit more
safety. You play the leaders in good patterns to stack the probabilities in
your favor. You buy when they are ready to move. You take reasonable
profits and let plays continue to work for you. In short, you play smart,
not blindly grabbing your proboscis and buying anything that moves.
NEWS/ECONOMY
TO VIEW THE NEWS/ECONOMY OVERVIEW CLICK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/eco/eco.mp4
So what about the jobs report? Was it really that bad? On the one hand,
yes. On the other hand, yes again. Will it make a difference to the out of
touch, economically ignorant, politically consumed 'leadership' in Congress?
No.
Non-farm payrolls: 138K versus 185K versus 174K April (from 211K)
March revised lower by 29K, April by 37K. So much for the accuracy of the
ADP monthly jobs survey (designed to mimic the BLS report but showing 235K
in May); those folks should take a few weeks off then not come back to work.
Marc Zandi, the 'brain' behind they survey, included.
The rubber match was to the downside: 38K March, 174K April (from 211K),
138K May.
Past 3 months: 121K average, down from over 180K/month.
Unemployment rate: 4.3% versus 4.4% prior. Lowest since May 2001. Also
the greatest piece of fiction -- ever.
Participation rate, aka how the unemployment rate is so low: 62.7% versus
62.9%.
Not in the workforce surged 608,000 to 94.983M from 94.375M.
Those employed: -233K
Those unemployed: +133K
Prognosis: that is the wrong direction. Brilliant analysis.
Full-time Jobs: -367K! The largest jump in 3 years
Part-time jobs: +133K
Wages: 0.2% versus 0.2% April (from 0.3%). Year/year: 2.5%. Barely keeping
up with inflation.
Workweek: Steady at 34.4 hours. Not that surprising as the ACA acts as a
natural governor on any workweek increases.
The $64B question: how can unemployment be at 4.3%, 7M jobs supposedly
created, and wages are at the very best barely keeping up with historically
low inflation rates?
First, it is the jobs being produced. They are mainly in the low wage
areas. Minimum wage jobs made up 2/3 of ALL jobs produced in May!!
Manufacturing turned in at -1,000, the weakest of 2017. The rest of the
sectors were more of the same from prior months: heavy on the lower wage
areas.
That of course, is a function of the structural changes wrought by the
combined burden of our tax system, the massive number of new regulations
from the prior administration, the centerpiece of which is the ACA with its
mandated coverage for any employee working more than 29 hours per week. If
you want less of something, tax it. The 29 hour threshold for the insurance
mandate to kick in is a tax on any company employing workers that work more
than 29 hours in a week. Therefore, to avoid the tax, a company alters its
employee base to maximize return. That means more workers working less
hours. That means making full-time jobs part-time, and the data bears this
out. We are becoming predominantly a nation of part-time workers that work
for lower wages. Others don't work at all; almost 95M working aged people
find it is just fine to collect benefits and avoid the hassle of a low-wage,
high-frustration job. You can always work some cash-only jobs to make some
extra cash and come out ahead versus taking a low wage hourly job.
Second, there simply are not that many jobs as claimed being produced.
Various new studies of business and job trends in the US show that for at
least the past 10 years the US economy has lost more businesses than it has
produced. The trends are dramatically lower.
Economic Innovation Group Wall
Street Journal
As you know, most new jobs are historically created by smaller businesses
from startups to relatively new businesses. If there are fewer and fewer
businesses over time, it would make sense that there would be fewer and
fewer jobs emerging from those smaller businesses.
Not so, however, according to the BLS and its birth/death adjustment. That
adjustment tries to bridge the gap between established companies reporting
their jobs gains or losses and startups that are too new to show up on the
traditional government surveys.
But here is where more magic occurs. Unlike stock market magic, however,
where the gains are actually true, these are wholly made up by government
bureaucrats.
The chart of the government's claimed jobs created through business startups
shows a marked trend higher even as multiple studies of business 'births and
deaths' show marked trends lower in the number of existing companies. A
survey that is supposed to guestimate the number of jobs being created by
new startups is showing more and more jobs as there are fewer and fewer
businesses in existence to create those jobs. Are we supposed to believe
that these fewer businesses are creating 2, 3, 4 times the number of jobs
they historically create? With the ACA throwing road blocks in small
business employment expansion?
If there was ever fake news, this is fake data and thus fake news. These
smart, intelligent, politically unbiased public servants are writing monthly
works of fiction that make sense nowhere in the real world. And of course
we pay them for this. All for the sake of keeping the status quo in place
so the huge government bureaucracy can justify its existence. It is so
huge, so pervasive, so engrained that nothing other than literally shutting
down entire branches of government or at least reducing staff by 90% will
result in any meaningful change. And, as we have seen, if a President even
questions the status quo the government behemoth quickly circles the wagons
and starts screaming impeachment just as sure as the snowflakes on US
campuses squeal for safe spaces lest they have to hear something that would
upset their fantasy land paradigm of socialist Utopia -- as their teachers
surely ignore the utter devastation of the people of Venezuela in the
collapse of that socialism paradise.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
DJ30: Starting here not because DJ30 performed the best, it did not, but it
did put in a clean new all-time high, its first of this run. DJ30 just
grazed over the March high on a closing basis Thursday, cleared all former
highs, intraday or otherwise, Friday. Good volume on the break higher.
NASDAQ: Accelerating upside with a gap and rally to the close though volume
backed off to barely above average. After a 3-day pause waiting for the 10
day EMA to catch up, NASDAQ resumed its run Thursday and Friday.
SP500: Volume faded to just above average here as well, but trade is much
improved on this new break higher. Similar to NASDAQ, SP500 paused to let
the 10 day EMA catch up then took off Thursday and Friday to a pair of
higher highs.
SOX: Did not put in the same test as the large cap indices, got a big balky
Wednesday with a gap higher that failed, but then managed a Friday upside
gap and closed out at a higher post-2000 high. Has not taken the rest of
the other indices and thus may be a bit more extended on this move. SOX does
tend to march by a bit different drummer -- that is what makes it such a
good indicator for the rest of the market -- so it can take a breather while
the rest of the market rallies as it was out in front and moving higher
while the other indices rested.
SP400: Put in a credible move on the prior highs but came up short.
Thursday was a huge move to get it within striking distance. Friday it
cleared the April highs but fell short of the March 1 all-time high. It
then faded to close with a modest gain. Tested the top of the range, now
this week we see how it reacts to that, i.e. either a roll back over or
another challenge.
RUTX: Similar to SP400 midcaps, RUTX, surged Thursday, again Friday, but
faded the Friday gains. It touched the early March high but the late April
peak is the all-time high, and it did not come near that. Same as SP400,
have to see how the test plays out this coming week.
LEADERSHIP
FAANG: After flattening out on the week and not providing any lift even
when NASDAQ rallied, e.g. on Thursday, Friday FANG was back in front. AMZN
over 1000. FB, AAPL, NFLX all broke higher from their short lateral
consolidations. GOOG was up but still in its recent lateral range.
Semiconductors: AVGO gapped up on earnings and with its 8.5% gain it led
the chips higher. NVDA, the leader to this point, put in its own short test
last week. MU put in a higher high along with SWKS and SIMO. Others still
look good for a new break higher: QRVO, PXLW. AMBA, SMTC are trying to
recover after they had good moves higher pushed back.
China: Somewhat volatile as usual, but holding the patterns. NTES coming
off a 20 day EMA test. CTRP still looks good to break higher. SINA still
testing its last move, setting up the next, SOHU doing the same.
Restaurants: Fast food still solid enough with WEN at a higher high, SONC
testing some, while DRI and YUM power higher once more.
Financial: BAC was down again Friday but off the lows that held near the
March/April lows. JPM fell on the week as well, holding the line to close
the week. C remained stronger of the 3, holding the 50 day EMA and bouncing
Friday. GS is just below the April and May lows.
Metals: Time to keep an eye on them as they are trying to bottom over the
past month. FCX, AKS, SCHN, AA, CENX.
MISC: MNST starting to break higher out of its consolidation. PYPL
continues to a higher high. SQ in a nice 1-2-3 test of its own.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +62.11 points (+0.29%) to close at 21206.29
Nasdaq
Stats: +58.97 points (+0.94%) to close at 6305.8
Volume: 1.83B (-6.15%)
Up Volume: 1.13B (-350M)
Down Volume: 646.77M (+198.19M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.06 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 3.02 to 1
New Highs: 344 (+121)
New Lows: 39 (0)
S&P
Stats: +9.01 points (+0.37%) to close at 2439.07
NYSE Volume: 865.2M (-13.48%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.4 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 4.57 to 1
New Highs: 339 (+76)
New Lows: 27 (+7)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 9.75; -0.14
VXN: 12.91; +0.22
VXO: 9.02; -0.13
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.82; -0.18
Bulls and Bears: As is often the case, after the BIG drop in bulls May 23,
they continued lower last week only to see stocks break higher. Bears rose
as well, posting a strong move for another week, also just in time to see
the market rally.
Bulls: 50.0 versus 51.9
Bears: 19.2 versus 18.3
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 50.00 versus 51.9
51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3
versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7 versus 53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1
versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6
versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8
versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1
versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2
Bears: 19.2 versus 18.3
18.3 versus 17.1 versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9 versus 18.3 versus 17.5
versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75 versus 17.3 versus 16.5
versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3
versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6
versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1
versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.154% versus 2.21% 10 year. Gapped over the 200 day SMA on the
jobs news and held the move.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.21%
versus 2.20% 2.26% versus 2.255% versus 2.252% versus 2.287% versus 2.254%
versus 2.233% versus 2.229% versus 2.223% versus 2.32% versus 2.34% versus
2.34% versus 2.393% versus 2.401% versus 2.394% versus 2.381% versus 2.354%
versus 2.322% versus 2.289% versus 2.322% versus 2.30% versus 2.31% versus
2.33% versus 2.275% versus 2.236% versus 2.234% versus 2.21% versus 2.15%
versus 2.248% versus 2.232% versus 2.264% versus 2.30% versus 2.36% versus
2.37% versus 2.34% versus 2.33% versus 2.34% versus 2.33% versus 2.35%
versus 2.40% versus 2.41% versus 2.382% versus 2.418% versus 2.376% versus
2.40% versus 2.41% versus 2.40% versus 2.43% versus 2.463% versus 2.50%
versus 2.529% versus 2.502% versus 2.602
EUR/USD: 1.12811 versus 1.12181. Euro breaks to a higher high against the
dollar, clearing the late May highs.
Historical: 1.12181 versus 1.12547 versus 1.11768 versus 1.11810 versus
1.12148 versus 1.12240 versus 1.11868 versus 1.12390 versus 1.11916 versus
1.23077 versus 1.10985 versus 1.11557 versus 1.10862 versus 1.09833 versus
1.09328 versus 1.08655 versus 1.08671 versus 1.08843 versus 1.09286 versus
1.09994 versus 1.09086 versus 1.08923 versus 1.09284 versus 1.090984 versus
1.08987 versus 1.08691 versus 1.09093 versus 1.09358 versus 1.08449 versus
1.07255 versus 1.07255 versus 1.07188 versus 1.0717 versus 1.07304 versus
1.06431 versus 1.06138 versus 1.0671 versus 1.06068 versus 1.05984 versus
1.05906 versus 1.0645 versus 1.06760 versus 1.06804 versus 1.06702 versus
1.06584 versus 1.06855 versus 1.07546 versus 1.0815 versus 1.08640 versus
1.07894 versus 1.07670 versus 1.07920 versus 1.08117 versus 1.0748 versus
1.07395 versus 1.07710 versus 1.0732 versus 1.06070 versus 1.0636 versus
1.06746 versus 1.06746 versus 1.05384 versus 1.0566 versus 1.05764 versus
1.06266 versus 1.05214
USD/JPY: 110.446 versus 111.595. Bombing lower to a lower closing low on
this selloff from the early May high at 114.4.
Historical: 111.595 versus 110.909 versus 111.086 versus 111.217 versus
111.828 versus 111.678 versus 111.835 versus 111.076 versus 111.534 versus
111.271 versus 111.584 versus 111.167 versus 112.414 versus 113.074 versus
113.749 versus 113.349 versus 113.759 versus 114.263 versus 113.771 versus
113.217 versus 112.683 versus 112.495 versus 112.782 versus 112.779 versus
111.793 versus 111.524 versus 111.197 versus 111. 177 versus 111.234 versus
109.704
Oil: 47.66, -0.70. Oil is now testing the March lows. At least it held
them Friday and bounced up off the lows.
Gold: 1280.20, +10.10. Breaking higher on the week, now pushing toward
that April peak at 1296.
MONDAY
The new month is already here, earnings reports are all but over, GDP, ISM,
Jobs Report -- the heavy hitters -- are all in the barn. What next?
Talk of the Fed not being so tough, for one. Yes that has already started
with pictures of a perplexed looking Yellen gracing many news sites.
Perhaps, just perhaps, the mentality about the strength of the economy is
changing. The question is, will the meme change enough so there is a
general cry to do something about it?
No doubt there are millions and millions of Americans who have not felt the
anything relating to a recovery. Those people are where they were during
the great recession. They, however, have been ignored in favor of
statistics such as non-GAAP big corporate earnings and the BLS' business
birth/death adjustment that shows millions of jobs and flies in the face of
study after study after study showing that there are but a fraction of those
claimed jobs actually created. Indeed, the math says that OVER 90% of those
'adjusted' jobs NEVER materialized.
Again, will these facts show the recovery has no clothes, that reforms must
be made such that the tax, healthcare, and regulatory reform will be
re-energized? One can only hope so for the sake of the millions of retirees
who earn 0% on their savings, those who lost quality full-time jobs in the
recession and are forced to work at a minimum wage hourly job, and all of
the young people eagerly learning in their chosen field only to find out
when they graduate all they get is a huge bill, an image of an H1-b visa
holder taking their job at less than half the pay, and a cot in mom and
dad's basement.
Of course, what the economy needs is not necessarily what the market needs
in these 'new normal' times where the market is fed by the Fed and the
profits of the top handful of companies dominating the indices. I have seen
this before. It is great for making money while it lasts. The problem is,
it never lasts and when it breaks there is a tremendous price to pay.
For now, however, the same theme continues, and we will play that theme.
Indeed, this week it looks as if the FAANG will be back in vogue for some
more plays and gains. We already have AAPL and AMZN, and will look to add
more. There are definitely still good patterns in non-FAANG stocks and we
are making money on them and will continue looking at them to do more for
us.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 6305.80
Resistance:
Support:
6205 is the late May all-time high
6170 is the recent all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 6037
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
The 2016 trendline at 5899
5800 from the February consolidation lows
5661 is the late January upper gap point
5601 is the January lower gap point
The 200 day SMA at 5588
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
S&P 500: Closed at 2439.07
Resistance:
The 2016 trendline at 2444
Support:
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2382
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The 200 day SMA at 2268
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
Dow: Closed at 21,206.29
Resistance:
Support:
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 20,833
The 50 day SMA at 20,811
20,553 is the lows of the week of May 15
20,547 is the lower gap point from late April 2017
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,400 is the mid-April 2017 low.
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
19,732 is the January 2017 low
The 200 day SMA at 19,683
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
End part 1 of 3
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play
annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play table.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- More new highs as jobs report stinks, more gloom forecasts.
- Jobs report misses, internals again show structural collapse of US
employment markets.
- Most new jobs the past 10 years are nothing but fiction -- and low wage
hourly jobs.
- Divorced, for now, from economic reality, markets continue their rise.
Thank goodness employment is lagging, right? The May jobs report was
horrible. At least the ISM/PMI sentiment reports were stronger -- though it
apparently took a phone call to get the Chicago PMI people with the program
as that report, initially a miss, was revised to a beat just over an hour
later. What nerve to go against the 'everything is coming up roses' meme.
Good to see those in power straightened this out quickly enough.
The jobs report, however, could not be fixed. Don't get me wrong: it is not
an accurate portrayal of the US jobs, it is just that things are so
structurally wrong with the jobs market that this miss, as bad as it was, is
still a rosy fiction compared to the reality of the US employment markets.
Okay, with that scenario, stocks rallied. Futures rose solidly ahead of
jobs, took a hit on the numbers and fell back near flat ahead of the bell.
Oh yes, and there were plenty more gloomers out Friday, comparing NASDAQ to
1999 (again) among the other usual doom scenarios. With this rather
pathetic economic performance, that is understandable: what the heck is the
market pricing in at this juncture? The Fed having to back off from hiking
or even ease rates? The yield curve is getting rather stupid again, trying
to invert even as the economy is supposedly just peachy. Hey, the Fed is
there right, so let all the bad news come.
Whatever is out there negative, it didn't matter. Stocks rallied more or
less across the board with more new highs for everyone -- except RUTX and
SP400. They are still bridesmaids on this move.
SP500 +9.01, +0.37%
NASDAQ 58.97, 0.94%
DJ30 62.11, 0.29%
SP400 0.19%
RUTX 1.12%
SOX 0.99%
VOLUME: NYSE -14%, NASDAQ -6%. After a volume spike to end May, trade
dropped Thursday and Friday, falling below average to end the week.
A/D: NYSE +1.4:1, NASDAQ +2:1. How do you spell large cap led move?
FAANG?
This market is like the bumblebee: it should not be able to fly, but it
does. The buy the dip mentality is strong in this move. Engrained now over
8 years, this is a hard habit to break. Selloffs are followed with
recoveries. As sure as Pavlov's dogs salivated when they heard the dinner
bell, Bernake's/Yellen's invest-dogs buy when they see a dip, particularly
after it magically ceases right after a sharp plunge.
There is now also the FOMO syndrome, the 'fear of missing out' buying as
AMZN tops 1000 and other 'household names' hit new highs and drive the
indices higher. How many emails do you get from someone touting how to
become an overnight stock market maven? They know the FOMO mentality is out
there and are taking advantage of it. I remember back over Christmas 1999
at a get together with some of my family and others. Many people who knew
nothing about the stock market commented they had better get in on it
because everyone else was making money doing it. I knew at that point a
major blow off was coming, just had to keep the eyes open for when it showed
up. It did in March 2000.
As I have chronicled several times over the past few weeks, more than a few
times this market should have rolled over in terms of a technical picture.
Yet, there was buying that saved the market. The Plunge Protection Team
gets it started by jumping in on key breaks lower, and when the rest of the
players see the sharp break has been blunted, they move, in. Happened the
past three weeks with that big, nasty Wednesday plunge that suddenly
stopped, and started to climb back. Now, the indices are once again at new
highs after teetering on a breakdown. Magic.
And profitable. We did not bank any gain to end the week. Why do so when
the market just breaks higher again after a short pullback to test? Indeed
we see more upside plays in several of the big names developing even if
breadth is atrocious. We know the market is higher than it should be based
on economics and phony non-GAAP accounting numbers (as the most recent Q1
GDP report showed as profits actually FELL), but we prefer to make money on
the upside even in the purportedly dying throes of the long upside run.
Some like to style it holding your nose and buying. Of course it is not
that, at least if you are interested in really making money with a bit more
safety. You play the leaders in good patterns to stack the probabilities in
your favor. You buy when they are ready to move. You take reasonable
profits and let plays continue to work for you. In short, you play smart,
not blindly grabbing your proboscis and buying anything that moves.
NEWS/ECONOMY
TO VIEW THE NEWS/ECONOMY OVERVIEW CLICK:
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/eco/eco.mp4
So what about the jobs report? Was it really that bad? On the one hand,
yes. On the other hand, yes again. Will it make a difference to the out of
touch, economically ignorant, politically consumed 'leadership' in Congress?
No.
Non-farm payrolls: 138K versus 185K versus 174K April (from 211K)
March revised lower by 29K, April by 37K. So much for the accuracy of the
ADP monthly jobs survey (designed to mimic the BLS report but showing 235K
in May); those folks should take a few weeks off then not come back to work.
Marc Zandi, the 'brain' behind they survey, included.
The rubber match was to the downside: 38K March, 174K April (from 211K),
138K May.
Past 3 months: 121K average, down from over 180K/month.
Unemployment rate: 4.3% versus 4.4% prior. Lowest since May 2001. Also
the greatest piece of fiction -- ever.
Participation rate, aka how the unemployment rate is so low: 62.7% versus
62.9%.
Not in the workforce surged 608,000 to 94.983M from 94.375M.
Those employed: -233K
Those unemployed: +133K
Prognosis: that is the wrong direction. Brilliant analysis.
Full-time Jobs: -367K! The largest jump in 3 years
Part-time jobs: +133K
Wages: 0.2% versus 0.2% April (from 0.3%). Year/year: 2.5%. Barely keeping
up with inflation.
Workweek: Steady at 34.4 hours. Not that surprising as the ACA acts as a
natural governor on any workweek increases.
The $64B question: how can unemployment be at 4.3%, 7M jobs supposedly
created, and wages are at the very best barely keeping up with historically
low inflation rates?
First, it is the jobs being produced. They are mainly in the low wage
areas. Minimum wage jobs made up 2/3 of ALL jobs produced in May!!
Manufacturing turned in at -1,000, the weakest of 2017. The rest of the
sectors were more of the same from prior months: heavy on the lower wage
areas.
That of course, is a function of the structural changes wrought by the
combined burden of our tax system, the massive number of new regulations
from the prior administration, the centerpiece of which is the ACA with its
mandated coverage for any employee working more than 29 hours per week. If
you want less of something, tax it. The 29 hour threshold for the insurance
mandate to kick in is a tax on any company employing workers that work more
than 29 hours in a week. Therefore, to avoid the tax, a company alters its
employee base to maximize return. That means more workers working less
hours. That means making full-time jobs part-time, and the data bears this
out. We are becoming predominantly a nation of part-time workers that work
for lower wages. Others don't work at all; almost 95M working aged people
find it is just fine to collect benefits and avoid the hassle of a low-wage,
high-frustration job. You can always work some cash-only jobs to make some
extra cash and come out ahead versus taking a low wage hourly job.
Second, there simply are not that many jobs as claimed being produced.
Various new studies of business and job trends in the US show that for at
least the past 10 years the US economy has lost more businesses than it has
produced. The trends are dramatically lower.
Economic Innovation Group Wall
Street Journal
As you know, most new jobs are historically created by smaller businesses
from startups to relatively new businesses. If there are fewer and fewer
businesses over time, it would make sense that there would be fewer and
fewer jobs emerging from those smaller businesses.
Not so, however, according to the BLS and its birth/death adjustment. That
adjustment tries to bridge the gap between established companies reporting
their jobs gains or losses and startups that are too new to show up on the
traditional government surveys.
But here is where more magic occurs. Unlike stock market magic, however,
where the gains are actually true, these are wholly made up by government
bureaucrats.
The chart of the government's claimed jobs created through business startups
shows a marked trend higher even as multiple studies of business 'births and
deaths' show marked trends lower in the number of existing companies. A
survey that is supposed to guestimate the number of jobs being created by
new startups is showing more and more jobs as there are fewer and fewer
businesses in existence to create those jobs. Are we supposed to believe
that these fewer businesses are creating 2, 3, 4 times the number of jobs
they historically create? With the ACA throwing road blocks in small
business employment expansion?
If there was ever fake news, this is fake data and thus fake news. These
smart, intelligent, politically unbiased public servants are writing monthly
works of fiction that make sense nowhere in the real world. And of course
we pay them for this. All for the sake of keeping the status quo in place
so the huge government bureaucracy can justify its existence. It is so
huge, so pervasive, so engrained that nothing other than literally shutting
down entire branches of government or at least reducing staff by 90% will
result in any meaningful change. And, as we have seen, if a President even
questions the status quo the government behemoth quickly circles the wagons
and starts screaming impeachment just as sure as the snowflakes on US
campuses squeal for safe spaces lest they have to hear something that would
upset their fantasy land paradigm of socialist Utopia -- as their teachers
surely ignore the utter devastation of the people of Venezuela in the
collapse of that socialism paradise.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
DJ30: Starting here not because DJ30 performed the best, it did not, but it
did put in a clean new all-time high, its first of this run. DJ30 just
grazed over the March high on a closing basis Thursday, cleared all former
highs, intraday or otherwise, Friday. Good volume on the break higher.
NASDAQ: Accelerating upside with a gap and rally to the close though volume
backed off to barely above average. After a 3-day pause waiting for the 10
day EMA to catch up, NASDAQ resumed its run Thursday and Friday.
SP500: Volume faded to just above average here as well, but trade is much
improved on this new break higher. Similar to NASDAQ, SP500 paused to let
the 10 day EMA catch up then took off Thursday and Friday to a pair of
higher highs.
SOX: Did not put in the same test as the large cap indices, got a big balky
Wednesday with a gap higher that failed, but then managed a Friday upside
gap and closed out at a higher post-2000 high. Has not taken the rest of
the other indices and thus may be a bit more extended on this move. SOX does
tend to march by a bit different drummer -- that is what makes it such a
good indicator for the rest of the market -- so it can take a breather while
the rest of the market rallies as it was out in front and moving higher
while the other indices rested.
SP400: Put in a credible move on the prior highs but came up short.
Thursday was a huge move to get it within striking distance. Friday it
cleared the April highs but fell short of the March 1 all-time high. It
then faded to close with a modest gain. Tested the top of the range, now
this week we see how it reacts to that, i.e. either a roll back over or
another challenge.
RUTX: Similar to SP400 midcaps, RUTX, surged Thursday, again Friday, but
faded the Friday gains. It touched the early March high but the late April
peak is the all-time high, and it did not come near that. Same as SP400,
have to see how the test plays out this coming week.
LEADERSHIP
FAANG: After flattening out on the week and not providing any lift even
when NASDAQ rallied, e.g. on Thursday, Friday FANG was back in front. AMZN
over 1000. FB, AAPL, NFLX all broke higher from their short lateral
consolidations. GOOG was up but still in its recent lateral range.
Semiconductors: AVGO gapped up on earnings and with its 8.5% gain it led
the chips higher. NVDA, the leader to this point, put in its own short test
last week. MU put in a higher high along with SWKS and SIMO. Others still
look good for a new break higher: QRVO, PXLW. AMBA, SMTC are trying to
recover after they had good moves higher pushed back.
China: Somewhat volatile as usual, but holding the patterns. NTES coming
off a 20 day EMA test. CTRP still looks good to break higher. SINA still
testing its last move, setting up the next, SOHU doing the same.
Restaurants: Fast food still solid enough with WEN at a higher high, SONC
testing some, while DRI and YUM power higher once more.
Financial: BAC was down again Friday but off the lows that held near the
March/April lows. JPM fell on the week as well, holding the line to close
the week. C remained stronger of the 3, holding the 50 day EMA and bouncing
Friday. GS is just below the April and May lows.
Metals: Time to keep an eye on them as they are trying to bottom over the
past month. FCX, AKS, SCHN, AA, CENX.
MISC: MNST starting to break higher out of its consolidation. PYPL
continues to a higher high. SQ in a nice 1-2-3 test of its own.
MARKET STATS
DJ30
Stats: +62.11 points (+0.29%) to close at 21206.29
Nasdaq
Stats: +58.97 points (+0.94%) to close at 6305.8
Volume: 1.83B (-6.15%)
Up Volume: 1.13B (-350M)
Down Volume: 646.77M (+198.19M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.06 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 3.02 to 1
New Highs: 344 (+121)
New Lows: 39 (0)
S&P
Stats: +9.01 points (+0.37%) to close at 2439.07
NYSE Volume: 865.2M (-13.48%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.4 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 4.57 to 1
New Highs: 339 (+76)
New Lows: 27 (+7)
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 9.75; -0.14
VXN: 12.91; +0.22
VXO: 9.02; -0.13
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.82; -0.18
Bulls and Bears: As is often the case, after the BIG drop in bulls May 23,
they continued lower last week only to see stocks break higher. Bears rose
as well, posting a strong move for another week, also just in time to see
the market rally.
Bulls: 50.0 versus 51.9
Bears: 19.2 versus 18.3
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 50.00 versus 51.9
51.9 versus 58.1 versus 58.7 versus 58.5 versus 54.7 versus 51.9 versus 56.3
versus 55.8 versus 49.5 versus 56.7 versus 53.4 versus 57.7 versus 63.1
versus 61.2 versus 61.8 versus 62.7 versus 61.8 versus 58.2 versus 60.6
versus 58.6 versus 60.2 versus 59.8 versus 59.8 versus 59.6 versus 58.8
versus 56.3 versus 55.6 versus 51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1
versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2
Bears: 19.2 versus 18.3
18.3 versus 17.1 versus 17.3 versus 17.9 versus 17.9 versus 18.3 versus 17.5
versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 17.3 versus 13.75 versus 17.3 versus 16.5
versus 17.5 versus 17.6 versus 16.7 versus 17.6 versus 17.5 versus 17.3
versus 18.3 versus 18.4 versus 19.6 versus 19.6 versus 19.2 versus 19.6
versus 22.3 versus 21.6 versus 23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1
versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.154% versus 2.21% 10 year. Gapped over the 200 day SMA on the
jobs news and held the move.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.21%
versus 2.20% 2.26% versus 2.255% versus 2.252% versus 2.287% versus 2.254%
versus 2.233% versus 2.229% versus 2.223% versus 2.32% versus 2.34% versus
2.34% versus 2.393% versus 2.401% versus 2.394% versus 2.381% versus 2.354%
versus 2.322% versus 2.289% versus 2.322% versus 2.30% versus 2.31% versus
2.33% versus 2.275% versus 2.236% versus 2.234% versus 2.21% versus 2.15%
versus 2.248% versus 2.232% versus 2.264% versus 2.30% versus 2.36% versus
2.37% versus 2.34% versus 2.33% versus 2.34% versus 2.33% versus 2.35%
versus 2.40% versus 2.41% versus 2.382% versus 2.418% versus 2.376% versus
2.40% versus 2.41% versus 2.40% versus 2.43% versus 2.463% versus 2.50%
versus 2.529% versus 2.502% versus 2.602
EUR/USD: 1.12811 versus 1.12181. Euro breaks to a higher high against the
dollar, clearing the late May highs.
Historical: 1.12181 versus 1.12547 versus 1.11768 versus 1.11810 versus
1.12148 versus 1.12240 versus 1.11868 versus 1.12390 versus 1.11916 versus
1.23077 versus 1.10985 versus 1.11557 versus 1.10862 versus 1.09833 versus
1.09328 versus 1.08655 versus 1.08671 versus 1.08843 versus 1.09286 versus
1.09994 versus 1.09086 versus 1.08923 versus 1.09284 versus 1.090984 versus
1.08987 versus 1.08691 versus 1.09093 versus 1.09358 versus 1.08449 versus
1.07255 versus 1.07255 versus 1.07188 versus 1.0717 versus 1.07304 versus
1.06431 versus 1.06138 versus 1.0671 versus 1.06068 versus 1.05984 versus
1.05906 versus 1.0645 versus 1.06760 versus 1.06804 versus 1.06702 versus
1.06584 versus 1.06855 versus 1.07546 versus 1.0815 versus 1.08640 versus
1.07894 versus 1.07670 versus 1.07920 versus 1.08117 versus 1.0748 versus
1.07395 versus 1.07710 versus 1.0732 versus 1.06070 versus 1.0636 versus
1.06746 versus 1.06746 versus 1.05384 versus 1.0566 versus 1.05764 versus
1.06266 versus 1.05214
USD/JPY: 110.446 versus 111.595. Bombing lower to a lower closing low on
this selloff from the early May high at 114.4.
Historical: 111.595 versus 110.909 versus 111.086 versus 111.217 versus
111.828 versus 111.678 versus 111.835 versus 111.076 versus 111.534 versus
111.271 versus 111.584 versus 111.167 versus 112.414 versus 113.074 versus
113.749 versus 113.349 versus 113.759 versus 114.263 versus 113.771 versus
113.217 versus 112.683 versus 112.495 versus 112.782 versus 112.779 versus
111.793 versus 111.524 versus 111.197 versus 111. 177 versus 111.234 versus
109.704
Oil: 47.66, -0.70. Oil is now testing the March lows. At least it held
them Friday and bounced up off the lows.
Gold: 1280.20, +10.10. Breaking higher on the week, now pushing toward
that April peak at 1296.
MONDAY
The new month is already here, earnings reports are all but over, GDP, ISM,
Jobs Report -- the heavy hitters -- are all in the barn. What next?
Talk of the Fed not being so tough, for one. Yes that has already started
with pictures of a perplexed looking Yellen gracing many news sites.
Perhaps, just perhaps, the mentality about the strength of the economy is
changing. The question is, will the meme change enough so there is a
general cry to do something about it?
No doubt there are millions and millions of Americans who have not felt the
anything relating to a recovery. Those people are where they were during
the great recession. They, however, have been ignored in favor of
statistics such as non-GAAP big corporate earnings and the BLS' business
birth/death adjustment that shows millions of jobs and flies in the face of
study after study after study showing that there are but a fraction of those
claimed jobs actually created. Indeed, the math says that OVER 90% of those
'adjusted' jobs NEVER materialized.
Again, will these facts show the recovery has no clothes, that reforms must
be made such that the tax, healthcare, and regulatory reform will be
re-energized? One can only hope so for the sake of the millions of retirees
who earn 0% on their savings, those who lost quality full-time jobs in the
recession and are forced to work at a minimum wage hourly job, and all of
the young people eagerly learning in their chosen field only to find out
when they graduate all they get is a huge bill, an image of an H1-b visa
holder taking their job at less than half the pay, and a cot in mom and
dad's basement.
Of course, what the economy needs is not necessarily what the market needs
in these 'new normal' times where the market is fed by the Fed and the
profits of the top handful of companies dominating the indices. I have seen
this before. It is great for making money while it lasts. The problem is,
it never lasts and when it breaks there is a tremendous price to pay.
For now, however, the same theme continues, and we will play that theme.
Indeed, this week it looks as if the FAANG will be back in vogue for some
more plays and gains. We already have AAPL and AMZN, and will look to add
more. There are definitely still good patterns in non-FAANG stocks and we
are making money on them and will continue looking at them to do more for
us.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 6305.80
Resistance:
Support:
6205 is the late May all-time high
6170 is the recent all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 6037
5996 is the recent May 2017 low
5937 is the all-time high from April
5915 is the tops of the March to April 2017 range
5910 is the lower gap point from mid-April
The 2016 trendline at 5899
5800 from the February consolidation lows
5661 is the late January upper gap point
5601 is the January lower gap point
The 200 day SMA at 5588
The November prior all-time high at 5404
5340 is the September and October 2016 twin peaks
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
S&P 500: Closed at 2439.07
Resistance:
The 2016 trendline at 2444
Support:
2406 is the all-time high from May 2017
2401 is the March 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2382
2352 is the recent May 2017 low
2348 is the April 2017 lower gap point
2329 is the March and April twin lows
2322 is the March 2017 low
2319 is the 78% Fibonacci retracement
2301 is the late January 2017 high
2298 is the late January 2017 high
2282 - 2280 from January 2017
2277.53 is the December 2016 high
The 200 day SMA at 2268
The November 2016 all-time high at 2213.25
2194 is the August 2016 prior all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
Dow: Closed at 21,206.29
Resistance:
Support:
21,169 is the March 2017 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 20,833
The 50 day SMA at 20,811
20,553 is the lows of the week of May 15
20,547 is the lower gap point from late April 2017
20,412 is the March 2017 low
20,400 is the mid-April 2017 low.
20,126 is the January 2017 intraday high
20,101 is the late January closing high.
19,994 - 19,999 (early January high, upper gap point from late January
19750 is the lows of the December/January range
19,732 is the January 2017 low
The 200 day SMA at 19,683
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
End part 1 of 3
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