Sunday, March 31, 2019

Stocks Move Upside at Quarter End (Weekend Newsletter)

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Weekend Newsletter for
March 31, 2019


Table Of Contents

1) MARKET SUMMARY from THE DAILY

2) STOCK SPLIT REPORT

3) IH ALERTS

4) SUCCESS TRADING GROUP

5) COVERED CALL SERVICE

      

Jon Johnson
1) MARKET SUMMARY
         > >From "The Daily" by Jon Johnson at InvestmentHouse.com


Stocks decided to move upside at quarter end.

- End of quarter brings some upside moves and some potential for more this week.
- Even with a better Friday, the indices are still at an inflection point.
- Trade commentary positive, provides good background. Don't count on trade to save the market, however.
- Economic data weakens again, Kudlow calls for 50BP rate cut, Fed is still in an impossible situation -- of its own making.
- Was that short inversion different this time?
- SP500, NASDAQ still trying to lead. Perhaps new money for a new quarter helps.


Market Summary (continued)
Stocks decided to move upside at quarter end with SP500 and NASDAQ gapping higher from a 4-session lateral move after dropping back into the top of the range the prior Friday. Down the prior Friday, up this one, but the two moves are not really apples to apples in terms of size and strength. Even so, the indices held support after that drop and did manage to garner some bids Friday. Whether just end of quarter shopping will be seen next week. Regardless, it was a strong quarter, the strongest first quarter since 1998 and overall quarter since 2009 -- or something like that.

Friday showed a decent move up off support. Needed it. But, alas, not definitive. Still below the highs before the prior Friday selling, still plenty to prove if bids are returning. Consider that the sellers are nowhere to be found. Stocks SHOULD be moving higher with relative ease, but bids were hard to find outside of perhaps Friday. Pretty anemic action nonetheless when you consider the sharp Friday selloff a week back. Again, still a lot to prove and surprisingly so given the lack of sellers stepping out in front of the market.

The internals were not bad, at least volume-wise; breadth was quite puny. Exchange volume spiked upside, but given it was 1) end of month, 2) end of Q1, and 3) LYFT posted 71.5M shares in its opening day, volume doesn't mean a whole lot. Good to see it up on an upside market session -- at least it was not selling volume, but there were other factors at work.

Read "The Daily" Entire Weekend Summary
Watch Market Overview Video
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Watch Next Session Video


Here's a trade from "The Daily" and insights into our trading strategy:


Chart by StockCharts.com
Please turn on your ability to receive graphics. We are providing you with a detailed chart of this stock. If you are unable to turn on graphics, please CLICK HERE or on the *Read Our Weekend Report Online* link above.


YETI (Yeti Holdings Inc.)
Company Profile
A new issue in October, we picked up our first position on Yeti as it broke from its first base, a cup with handle formed from late November to mid-February. After that break higher and rally, YETI consolidated three weeks. Liked how it did not give up any gains, so we put on a new play to pick it up as it broke higher once more. YETI broke higher 3/13 and we picked up the stock for $26.25 and some May $25.00 call options for $3.30.

YETI surged upside to $30.25, tested back to the 10 day EMA, then rallied off that near support into Thursday. Strong move and rallying right to our initial target. At $32.60, that put the gain at 24% on the stock. The options traded $7.2, a 115+% gain. YETI fell right back to the 10 day EMA Friday, but after undercutting it managed a nice rebound to hold the 10 day on the close. Nice shakeout test as the buyers came right back in. Still looks good to continue.

VZ (Verizon Communications Inc.)
Company Profile
VZ set up a classic triangle from November to early March and we put it on the report 3/01 to be ready for the break higher. VZ needed one more test and made that to start March. Then on March 11 it made its move, surging on some solid trade, gapping and rallying. We picked up some stock for $57.53 and some May $57.50 strike call options at $1.60. After that, it was a case of letting the pattern and the breakout work.

VZ rallied off the initial move for four sessions, tested the 10 day EMA for three, then rallied up into last week. Midweek it hit the target at the November high. We pulled the trigger, selling the options for $3.55, a 120% gain. Sold the stock for $60.84, banking 5.75%. Options or stock? Hmmm.

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2) STOCK SPLIT REPORT

Here's a leader play and our current analysis.

Chart by StockCharts.com
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ARWR (Arrowhead Research--$18.35; +0.26; optionable): Biotech
Company Profile
EARNINGS: 05/09/2019
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another drug related play, this one getting very interesting with a four week handle to a 7 month base, the handle one of our favorite upside shorter term patterns. That pattern is the downward pointing wedge. Those have a very good reliability to breaking in the opposite direction of the point of the wedge. With ARWR fading the past four weeks to the 50 day MA last week, that means the move to watch for is the upside break. The entry is a solid break higher through the upper trendline, showing some good trade. That puts ARWR on trade to shoot for a new high. Of course, we can make some good money without it having to move to a new high, a very nice aspect of this pattern.
CHART VIDEO
Volume: 1.101M Avg Volume: 1.77M
BUY POINT: $18.76 Volume=2.5M Target=$22.48 Stop=$17.51
POSITION: ARWR JUN 21 2019 18.00C - (57 delta) &/or Stock

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Chart by StockCharts.com
Please turn on your ability to receive graphics. We are providing you with a detailed chart of this stock. If you are unable to turn on graphics, please CLICK HERE or on the *Read Our Weekend Report Online* link above.
3) IH ALERTS

ODFL (Old Dominion Freight Line--$144.39; -1.10; optionable): Trucking
Company Profile
EARNINGS: 04/25/2019
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A very well-formed 7 month base showing the classic features. The second low undercut the first, and as it did, MACD put in a higher low. The stock jumped from there and rallied to mid-February. ODFL has spent the next 6 week handle, using the 50 day MA as support. Nice lateral move the last 1.5 weeks puts ODFL in good position to make a breakout move. Looking for strong volume and holding the break higher as the entry signal. A rally to the initial target at the first level of resistance gains 75% on the calls, 9%ish on the stock. Steady but solid stock, great pattern.
CHART VIDEO
Volume: 460.115K Avg Volume: 540.26K
BUY POINT: $147.34 Volume=800K Target=$159.77 Stop=$143.01
POSITION: ODFL JUL 1j9 2019 145.00c - (45 delta) &/or Stock

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4) SUCCESS TRADING GROUP
--by the MarketFN STG Team

VZ (Verizon Communications Inc.)
Company Profile
Our Success Trading Group members closed another winning trade this week on Verizon Communications Inc. (Ticker: VZ). We have several stocks on our radar and are looking forward to trading next week.

Our Success Trading Group closed
7 years with 0 losses on our Main Trade Table. In fact, we closed 100% winning trades for the calendar years 2016, 2015, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 and 2009 (we still have 1 open position from 2017 (all others were winners) and 1 trade that we opened in 2014 was closed as a losing trade). All of these trades are posted on our Main Trade Table for your review during your free membership trial period.

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Chart by StockCharts.com
Please turn on your ability to receive graphics. We are providing you with a detailed chart of this stock. If you are unable to turn on graphics, please CLICK HERE or on the *Read Our Weekend Report Online* link above.
5) COVERED CALL PLAY

TROX - Tronox Holdings PLC is currently trading at $13.15. The May $13.00 Calls (TROX20190518C00013000) are trading at $1.25. That provides a return of about 10% if TROX is above $13.00 on expiration Friday in May.
Company Profile



Learn more about our Covered Call Tables


PREMIUM SERVICES
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Covered Calls: Allowed in your IRA - Energize your portfolio!
The Daily: "The Daily" is a must read for all investors!
Success Trading Group: 7 years without a trading loss!
The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinions of Online Investment Services, LP., or Split Ventures, Ltd. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on the related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolios of writers for this issue may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on the related web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. No one associated herewith receives compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this newsletter or on the related websites.
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Saturday, March 30, 2019

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 3-30-19

* * * *
3/30/2019 Investment House Daily
* * * *

Investment House Daily Subscribers:

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you can sign up at the following link:
https://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy, Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to the portion you wish to view.

TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
https://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4

TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
https://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4

TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
https://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************

The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.


MARKET SUMMARY

- End of quarter brings some upside moves and some potential for more this week.
- Even with a better Friday, the indices are still at and inflection point.
- Trade commentary positive, provides good background. Don't count on trade to save the market, however.
- Economic data weakens again, Kudlow calls for 50BP rate cut, Fed is still in an impossible situation -- of its own making.
- Was that short inversion different this time?
- SP500, NASDAQ still trying to lead. Perhaps new money for a new quarter helps.

Stocks decided to move upside at quarter end with SP500 and NASDAQ gapping higher from a 4-session lateral move after dropping back into the top of the range the prior Friday. Down the prior Friday, up this one, but the two moves are not really apples to apples in terms of size and strength. Even so, the indices held support after that drop and did manage to garner some bids Friday. Whether just end of quarter shopping will be seen next week. Regardless, it was a strong quarter, the strongest first quarter since 1998 and overall quarter since 2009 -- or something like that.

Friday showed a decent move up off support. Needed it. But, alas, not definitive. Still below the highs before the prior Friday selling, still plenty to prove if bids are returning. Consider that the sellers are nowhere to be found. Stocks SHOULD be moving higher with relative ease, but bids were hard to find outside of perhaps Friday. Pretty anemic action nonetheless when you consider the sharp Friday selloff a week back. Again, still a lot to prove and surprisingly so given the lack of sellers stepping out in front of the market.

The internals were not bad, at least volume-wise; breadth was quite puny. Exchange volume spiked upside, but given it was 1) end of month, 2) end of Q1, and 3) LYFT posted 71.5M shares in its opening day, volume doesn't mean a whole lot. Good to see it up on an upside market session -- at least it was not selling volume, but there were other factors at work.

I don't want to sound as if I am looking the gift horse in the mouth. The indices needed to move higher and they did. Volumes were up, and not just on a few darlings. CSCO, MSFT saw good increases in trade Friday, and although they are tech, they are not exactly as sexy as they were back in the 1990's. Okay, they are no where NEAR as sexy as they were back then. Indeed, 'sexy' does not even come to mind when thinking of them. That said, using 'sexy' to describe any stock is something only a stock nerd would do.

Okay, a bit of a digression there. The point: the move was more of what the indices have to do and thus I am not going to overthink it. That said, I am not confident the moves hold Monday. Okay, perhaps I will overthink it some. It just seemed to be an end of the month 'excuse me we have some business to do here at quarter end' kind of move. It would appear my inability to avoid digressing knows no bounds.



NEWS/ECONOMY

The session got off on the correct foot with some more trade optimism, as unfounded as it may be. Mnuchin on his visit with the Chinese Vice Premiere said the talks were 'constructive.' As with the term 'superstar' in the 2000's used to describe every football player, the overuse of 'constructive' in describing these trade talks is monumental. Mnuchin is a cheerleader and of course he wants to succeed so puts forth a good front. But there is the Trump factor, and that is the wildcard. China knows it. The word is Trump told Xi to stop flooding fentanyl into US but it keeps coming. That will not sit well at all as Trump was dead serious. So, the talk that China was making proposals on technology transfer, etc. sounds good but you have the nationalist versus the communist nationalist. Good luck.

China's stock market enjoyed solid gains Friday as well, rising rose 3+%. It would thus at least appear Chinese investors are as gullible as the average US investor.

The other data . . .

The week saw basically weaker data come back after some better looks in the last couple of weeks.

GDP Q4 dropped back to 2.2% from an earlier 2.6% read, but that still kept year/year at 3.0%, the first time in over a decade that occurred. Just a bit of regulation lifting and tax reduction and you get a pop. If the job was finished and we could get away from the ACA that, even with the changes is still killing small business (policies are still up an average $4K versus the promised drop of $2.5K) -- you buy insurance with huge monthly premiums and huge deductibles, then have no money to go to the doctor -- nice insurance.


Personal Income, Feb: 0.2% vs 0.3% expected vs -0.1% January. Decent.

Spending, January: 0.1 vs 0.3 expected vs -0.6 December (from -0.5). Well, it was an improvement.

Core PCE: 0.1% vs 0.2% exp vs 0.2% prior. +1.4% year/year.

Inflation is lower, and as discussed this past week there is NOTHING wrong with lower interest rates as long as the curve is healthy -- something that is concerning right now. If, however, you have growth you get lower rates and the yield curve will show longer term money with higher rates than shorter because of the growth ahead.

Ah, but what about those rates?

Friday Larry Kudlow joined economist Stephen Moore in calling for a 50BP rate cut. Always tricky when the administration economists start calling for this -- the Fed does not want to appear as an administration lapdog, but if the cut is needed then what is the Fed to do? Decelerate

I get Kudlow's point and have said it myself: the Fed overtightened into an economic slowdown that, as is the Fed's custom, it did not recognize. Thus, it hiked at precisely the wrong time, turning a normal slow patch in an expansion into a potential stall and recession.

The Fed figured it out and went on pause. All good, but as I said two months ago, if the economy was slowing already and the Fed raised rates, just pausing is not going to cure the ailment. The Fed WOULD have to cut in order to take the boot off the economy's neck so to speak. As an analogy, it realized it had potentially mortally wounded the economy with a series of knife cuts to key arteries, so it stopped slicing further and is just standing there, knife in hand, watching it bleed out.

Thus, the Fed has caused its own dilemma. Bernanke and Yellen too lax, not hiking when they had the opportunity, Powell tried to hike but as the Fed does, failed to realize the timing was wrong. Now the economy has slowed, short term rates are rising vis- -vis longer term rates, indicating the economy is certainly slowing. If the Fed cuts rates will that be enough to start the positive economic vibes again and get the animal spirits up to invest, or will it be read as definite trouble? The Fed has again created a sad dilemma and of course the Fed is not the one injured. No, that is, as always, you and me.



THE MARKET

After the prior Friday inversion curve fears dumped stocks and pushed NASDAQ and SP500 back into the top of the prior range, the stock indices limped through the week. They held the line with no further selling, meandering laterally through Thursday, then a decent Friday bounce to end the quarter.

The indices did what they had to do, i.e. refrain from further selling. The selling dried up, but so did bids. Yes, some of the same leaders continued rallying, e.g. CMG, but most moved in tight ranges. Consolidation is fine and Friday was hopeful for the upside, but it will have to show it can continue this coming week. As noted Wednesday and Thursday, it could be that DJ30, SP400, RUTX have two or more weeks of more pattern work to set up a break higher. SP500 and NASDAQ are in position to move higher, but the bids have to return more than just an end to the quarter.

CHARTS

SP500/NASDAQ: Still joined at the hip in terms of the pattern. Broke out the prior Friday, immediately sold off, never a good sign. Hung on through the week in lateral moves at the 20 day EMA, just below the top of the October/December range, Friday gapping upside. Better volume Friday, but it was also end of the quarter money moving. Not bad, did what was needed, many leading stocks in good patterns -- pretty pictures but they need to make pretty moves. Friday was a start, needs to follow through this week.

DJ30: Up toward the highs from the past four weeks with a good Friday upside break. That leaves DJ30 just below the upper resistance from the October/December range. As noted last week, DJ30 is trying to set up a right shoulder to a six month inverted head and shoulders. It looks as if it has a couple more weeks of work to do in terms of symmetry; we will see how this move up to the top of the recent range performs. Some long dormant stocks such as UTX trying to wake up.

SOX: Fell to the 20 day EMA Monday then held. Friday a gap upside, but it was a weak move. Held the 20 day, so thus far it did what it needed to do, but did not do anything more.

SP400: The midcaps climbed slowly but steadily into Friday as they moved up off the prior Friday selloff. Friday gapped up to the 200 day SMA then faded to a modest gain. Very similar to DJ30, working up near the top of the recent 5 week range, trying to form a right shoulder to an inverted head and shoulders pattern.

RUTX: Somewhat similar to SP400, a slow, steady recovery through the week, back to the 20 day EMA and showing a doji. Still looks bear flag-ish, very tied to the domestic economy, failed at the 20 day MA mid-month.

LEADERSHIP

FAANG: AAPL continues a weeklong test of a break over the 200 day SMA. Not bad. FB continues it a 2 month trading range after gapping higher on earnings. Didn't get much mileage out of those results. AMZN still looks good in a weeklong lateral test after breaking the 200 day SMA. NFLX is testing the 50 day EMA after breaking to a higher high over a week back. GOOG tapped the January up trendline a third time on the low and bounced. AAPL, AMZN, GOOG looking good.

Semiconductor: Still some great setups, but it is not universal. AMD, NVDA, LRCX, TSM, AVGO, AMAT -- nice looking. INTC trying to make a comeback, TXN needs a comeback.

Software: Showing some upside movement, e.g. TEAM, and VMW and MSFT look very good, but overall many are struggling: DATA, HUBS. Others such as WDAY, OKTA are holding gains but look somewhat precarious.

Manufacturing/Machinery: New life. CAT jumped back to just below the 200 day SMA Friday. UTX started to break higher. CMI coming back off a 2 week flag. Some interesting looking moves. EMR, ETN trying to set up.

Personal products: Sadly, performing better, e.g. PG, CL (+1.74% Friday).

Transports: Improved for sure, particularly rails with a good upside on the week, NSC, CSX. Truckers decent, particularly ODFL. Airlines improving, e.g. DAL with a nice break higher Friday, LUV solid Wednesday to Friday. AAL ready to bounce up off the bottom of the range.

China: These stocks continue to look good and Friday they were working. HUYA, HTHT. ATHM screamed higher Friday.

MISC: CMG still rising; amazing. V and MA continue looking very good. SQ working on a big base but not ready yet. LYFT traded in a 10 point range, opening at 88ish, closing at 78ish.


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: +211.22 points (+0.82%) to close at 25928.68

Nasdaq
Stats: +60.16 points (+0.78%) to close at 7729.32
Volume: 2.31B (+20.94%)

Up Volume: 1.58B (+330M)
Down Volume: 700.78M (+58.33M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.4 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.81 to 1

New Highs: 78 (+13)
New Lows: 48 (-4)

S&P
Stats: +18.96 points (+0.67%) to close at 2834.40
NYSE Volume: 1.083B (+43.80%)

Up Volume: 703.779M (+211.12M)
Down Volume: 355.277M (+115.243M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.6 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.15 to 1

New Highs: 138 (+8)
New Lows: 25 (-6)

SENTIMENT

VIX: 13.71; -0.72
VXN: 16.62; -1.37
VXO: 14.02; -1.65

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.88; +0.01


Bulls and Bears:

Very status quo after the big recovery. Both bulls, bears holding position.

Bulls: 52.0 versus 53.9

Bears: 20.6 versus 20.6

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 52.0 versus 53.9
53.9 versus 52.4 versus 52.9 versus 52.4 versus 51.9 versus 49.5 versus 48.6 versus 45.8 versus 45.4 versus 34.8 versus 29.9 versus 39.3 versus 45.4 versus 46.7 versus 38.3 versus 39.6 versus 42.9 versus 42.5 versus 50.5 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 61.8 versus 60.6 versus 59.0 versus 57.7 versus 60.1 versus 59.6 versus 57.7 versus 57.3 versus 54.9 versus 54.5 versus 54.9 versus 55.3 versus 52.4 versus 47.1 versus 47.6 versus 52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2

Bears: 20.6 versus 20.6
20.6 versus 21.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.4 versus 20.7 versus 21.5 versus 20.6 versus 20.6 versus 21.3 versus 29.4 versus 34.6 versus 21.4 versus 20.4 versus 21.50 versus 20.6 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 19.8 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 18.3 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.5 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.4 versus 17.6 versus 17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2 versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8


OTHER MARKETS

INTEREST RATES

Bonds rallied again as yields dropped again. Investor's Business Daily sports a good article this weekend about whether the 3 month/7 year inversion meant anything. It appears to acknowledge that pair can indicate recession, but also notes that other recessions had other inversions as well, not just that pair. Moreover, it discusses WHY we have this inversion and how its genesis differs from those in other recessions, e.g. this one is caused by the FOMC backing off rate hikes while the others were a result of the Fed continuing with rate hikes. Interesting reading and answers some of the questions we have had regarding how solid the leaders and their patterns look, how good copper and oil look, even as there was a short inversion of the 3 month/10 year instruments.

The 3 month yield fell below the 10 year: 2.403% versus 2.407% 10 year (10 year).

The 2 year is still below 10 year: 2.266% versus 2.407% 10 year, the spread at 14BP, down on the week.


10 year: 2.381% versus 2.381%.

3 month: 2.403% versus 2.437% versus 2.434%
2 year: 2.266% versus 2.226% versus 2.21 versus 2.268%

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). Last trade over 3% was November 2018.

2.381% versus 2.281% versus 2.421% versus 2.443% versus 2.437% versus 2.538% versus 2.524% versus 2.616% versus 2.601% versus 2.591% versus 2.628% versus 2.625% versus 2.60% versus 2.641% versus 2.632% versus 2.641% versus 2.693% versus 2.715% versus 2.724% versus 2.759% versus 2.717% versus 2.673% versus 2.636% versus 2.672% versus 2.654% versus 2.695% versus 2.641% versus 2.641% versus 2.664% versus 2.654% versus 2.706% versus 2.686%


EUR/USD: 1.12178 versus 1.12310. Euro fell further toward the early March low. Massive euro weakness.

Historical: 1.12310 versus 1.12452 versus 1.12754 versus 1.13145 versus 1.13009 versus 1.13713 versus 1.14314 versus 1.13526 versus 1.13359 versus 1.13248 versus 1.13070 versus 1.13271 versus 1.12895 versus 1.12592 versus 1.12344 versus 1.1191 versus 1.13123 versus 1.13050 versus 1.13344 versus 1.13650 versus 1.13725 versus 1.13790 versus 1.1391 versus 1.13598 versus 1.13332 versus 1.13363 versus 1.14490 versus 1.13544 versus 1.12922 versus 1.12955 versus 1.12616 versus 1.3323 versus 1.12816 versus 1.13218 versus 1.13396 versus 1.13645 versus 1.1396 versus 1.14350


USD/JPY: 110.867 versus 110.816

Historical: Last below 109 in June 2018 then tumbled to 107 in early January 2019. 114.51 is the recent high from October 2018.

110.816 versus 110.132 versus 110.537 versus 110.113 versus 109.92 versus 110.72 versus 110.673 versus 111.374 versus 111.432 versus 111.470 versus 111.715 versus 111.314 versus 111.428 versus 111.165 versus 111.482 versus 111.624 versus 111.845 versus 111.856 versus 111.921 versus 111.433 versus 110.873 versus 110.53 versus 110.979 versus 110.670 versus 110.664 versus 110.786 versus 110.848 versus 110.469 versus 110.462 versus 110.945 versus 110.523 versus 110.488 versus 109.754


Oil: 60.14, +0.84. Still moving laterally over the 10 day EMA and below the 200 day SMA. Measuring that resistance.


Gold: 1298.50, +3.20. Crashed below the 50 day MA Thursday, tried to recover Friday, failed to hold a try over the 50 day EMA. Sudden weakness is not a bad indication.


MONDAY

Start of a new month and new quarter. The prior Friday was down hard, Monday held the line. This last Friday up some -- can it continue that new attempt at upside after a week of working off that prior sharp Friday selloff.

Many leaders are well-positioned -- just as they were all week. Some started upside Friday. If they can continue of course we like the buy.

That said, DJ30, SP400, RUTX still look to have work to do. Thus a large bit of the upside potential rests in SP500 and NASDAQ. NASDAQ 100 as well as it too moves laterally just over the October/December resistance range. They showed some life Friday, perhaps just end of quarter position shuffling, perhaps presaging the week to come.

Yes, yes, after all this time STILL at the crossroads. Looking good -- just as they did 1, 2, 4, 5 weeks ago. At least they continued to consolidate and set up versus selling off when they certainly had the opportunity.

Therefore, we look for more upside in addition to some good-looking plays that still are ready to buy if the moves are made. A few downside won't hurt; the sellers were solid the prior Friday, and though they disappeared as fast as they showed up, they could do it again. Best to be ready. Just in case. Trump and Xi could splash cold water on all the anecdotal 'good' trade news this past week. I still think the market is overly optimistic at what can be accomplished. That, however, is just my opinion, and the market does not care two beans for any one person's opinion. That is just my opinion as well.

Have a great weekend!

End part 1
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Friday, March 29, 2019

Market Alert - To the Close

Stocks are ending the quarter on an upside basis with decent gains for the large caps with small and midcaps up but lagging. Decent gains, not a lot of fireworks, and for a Friday I suppose that is pretty good. Not enough to trigger new buys, not a lot of change though SP500, NASDAQ do bounce up from the top of the resistance range.

SP500 16.49, 0.58%
NASDAQ 54.55, 0.72%
DJ30 187.72, 0.73%
SP400 0.31%
RUTX 0.29%
SOX 1.47%
NASDAQ 100 0.70%

As noted, very decent gains with some improving late as some late buys are hitting more of the large cap stocks.

Larry Kudlow joined prospective Fed nominee Stephen Moore in calling for a 50 BP rate cut. Wow, things must be bad. I do see their point and have made it myself: The Fed paused but if things are weakening, then pausing alone is not enough as they tightened, as usual, into weakening. Therefore that would necessitate a cut to get things back to equilibrium. Glad I am not in that business.

Comfortable to let positions work and see what next wee brings in terms of this test that continue through this week. The late bid in stocks is not hurting that as well.

LYFT has traded in the 80's all day, now dipping to the upper 70's.
______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com

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Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +14.56; DJ +142.54; NASDAQ +46.04

Futures making the low to high ramp in the morning, still moving toward higher pre-opening highs. Good to see a steady build. Of course, with the market up and down each session, turning big gains into little gains and sharp losses into duller pains, pre-market surges don't mean much. At least the market is trying to put on a good face at Quarter end.

Ah, quarter end. Month end has provided buys in the past couple of months just to come back some, but overall the move is higher. So, a gap higher today has some staying power potential. Positions shuffled and perhaps new money hits next week for the new month and new quarter.

Trade: Helping spark some good feelings as Mnuchin says the talks in China are 'constructive.' Whatever. It is all smoke and mirrors until a deal is cut, signed, etc. Oh, and Huawei is saying the US has a 'loser attitude.' Thanks thief.


Personal Income, Feb: 0.2 vs 0.3 exp vs -0.1 Jan

Spending, Jan: 0.1 vs 0.3 exp vs -0.6 Dec (from -0.5)

Core PCE: 0.1 VS 0.2 exp vs 0.2 prior. +1.8% year/year

Lower inflation is good. Good. The worry with interest rates is when the curve is flat to inverted, not that rates are low. Again, low inflation is good.

New autos sales and prices were lower.


Earnings beats: BBRY; PRGS

Misses: KX (TL); RH (TL)

Upgrades: WFC; FFIV (to neutral; high praise indeed)

Downgrades: WFC; CMCSA; TSLA; RH


Michigan Sentiment, Chicago PMI still to come.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.421% vs 2.381% 10 year. Yields post a solid surge on trade optimism potentially removing economic headwinds, blah, blah, blah. Not out of the woods.

EUR/USD: 1.1238 vs 1.1231

USD/JPY: 110.58 vs 110.81

Oil: 60.44, +1.14. Rebounding the day after dropping on a Trump OPEC comment.

Gold: 1301.70, +6.40


Futures holding those gains. LYFT IPO today. Leaders have tested, in position, ready to bounce. Now, will they be able to hold a move higher?
______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com

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Thursday, March 28, 2019

The Daily, Part 1, 3-28-19

* * * *
3/28/2019 Investment House Daily
* * * *

Apologies for the timing. The flu stepped back into the picture this evening and had to work through that.

Investment House Daily Subscribers:

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: VZ
Entry alerts: FATE; VIAV
Trailing stops: VZ
Stop alerts: None issued

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you can sign up at the following link:
https://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

********************************************************************

The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.


MARKET SUMMARY

- More of the same action, and that is not a bad thing.
- Indices fade, recover, no volume. BUT . . . leadership is set up so very well.
- Will the LYFT IPO help other stocks if it goes well? If it doesn't go well?
- Again with the leaders: the pundits say a test has to occur, the leadership patterns suggest perhaps not. BUT, have to make the moves form good patterns.

D j vu all over again. Kind of. Close. The the indices did not give up big gains or recover from sharp losses. Well, they did come back from a morning dump lower to midday, just not quite on the magnitude of the prior two sessions. Still, SP500 saw a 17 point recovery low to close. NASDAQ 49 points. DJ30 140 points. Okay, pretty serious moves, not chicken feed

The end result, however, was similar as well. The indices reached lower to support and then recovered once again, this time to gains all except SOX.

SP500 10.07, 0.36%
NASDAQ 25.79, 0.34%
DJ30 91.87, 0.36%
SP400 0.82%
RUTX 0.85%
SOX -0.19%
NASDAQ 100 0.17%

VOLUME: NYSE -8%, NASDAQ -15%. Very low trade, so again no heavy buying, just a drift higher. Same as on the downside days, just a drift lower as bids are pulled. Sellers are not present right now after that day they showed up the prior Friday when rattled by the New York Fed's yield curve comments.

ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE +2.2:1, NASDAQ +1.8:1. Ho-hum. The way it has been this week. Not a bad thing in a consolidation.

As you can see, NASDAQ 100 lagged overall NASDAQ and growth in general. Those big names were still under pressure, or at least were not finding bids. Still holding support, however, and as noted Wednesday, if they can ride out this period of consolidation of the prior gains while some money moves elsewhere (e.g. rails), they will be well-positioned for a new move higher off support.

CHARTS

To view, click on the following links:

http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/sp500.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/NASDAQ.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/DJ30.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/RUTX.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SP400.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SOX.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/nasdaq100.jpg

As for the index charts, as noted, very similar action. That keeps them over near support working on their patterns that fall into two groups.

SP500 and NASDAQ continue to hold right at the top of the resistance range, showing a string of doji at near support, attempting to hold close and resume the break upside from last week that was rudely disrupted by the Friday yield curve inversion fear trade. Thus far they have refused to give in to that Friday selloff. Recall, NASDAQ trade on the Thursday surge just before the Friday selling was MUCH stronger than the selling volume that faded back to average. Makes it look as if these stocks are biding their time.

DJ30 continues flat after bouncing Tuesday off the Friday/Monday 50 day MA test. Working laterally in a tight range, perhaps working on a right shoulder to a 6 month inverted head and shoulders pattern. Of course, that shoulder likely won't be ready for 2 to 3 more weeks -- the first shoulder ran roughly 7 weeks. The action is slow and boring, but slow and boring at this juncture is good.

SP400 showed very similar action, working along the top of the 50 day MA the past four weeks as part of a 5 week lateral move after breaking through the top of the resistance range in late February then fading to this support. As with DJ30, it likely takes a few more weeks to resolve.

RUTX is also perhaps setting up the same pattern, just testing a bit lower than the prior two. Not to the support level at 1475 (hit 1495 on the Monday pullback low), but it came close and bounced. The pattern still looks as if the small caps are going to come back some more, and I would not be surprised if they did come back to that 1475ish level, the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the December to February move.

SOX showed a loose doji at the 20 day EMA, for a third session out of four closing at that level that matches the late February closing high. Chips obviously struggled more as a major chip, INTC, had issues again. AVGO, NVDA, however, look quite good.


LEADERSHIP

More of the same for leaders. Some continued the advance, e.g. CRM, ZS. Many others continued good tests: AAPL, NVDA, AVGO, AMD, AMZN, MSFT -- outstanding tests, setting up for more upside.

Others testing a bit deeper: GOOG is down 4 of 4 days but held the same low as Wednesday and bounced, the up trendline from the start of the year. TEAM is at the lower channel line and could be gravy as they say. Ditto FIVN.

Transports are better though not surging. UNP and NSC in rails are solid. ODFL in trucking is solid.

China stocks: HTHT is very solid in a test, HUYA has set back up after that dump lower last Friday. JD is very interesting. Many of the 'traditional' China stocks are not good, e.g. BIDU, SOHU, SINA.

Financials: V in a great lateral test, MA moving up but not breaking higher again just yet. WFC struggled again, and afterhours 'jumped' $1.10 from the close on word its CEO quit. JPM, BAC up a bit but nothing great.

Manufacturing/Machinery: UTX still good, upside on the day, no volume. DE, TEX just so-so moving laterally. CMI, CAT, also so-so, but holding decent lateral moves.

Energy is decent, but it gives so many head fakes. SPN, DVN, FSLR very interesting as is APA.


INTEREST RATES

Bonds rallied again as yields dropped again.

The 3 month yield still over the 10 year: 2.437% versus 2.381% 10 year (10 year flat).

The 2 year is still below 10 year: 2.226% versus 2.381% 10 year, but the spread narrowed.

The 3 month/10 year spread expanded 2 BP to 6BP.

The 2 year/10 year spread narrowed from 17BP to 16BP


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: +91.87 points (+0.36%) to close at 25717.46

Nasdaq
Stats: +25.79 points (+0.34%) to close at 7669.17
Volume: 1.91B (-14.73%)

Up Volume: 1.25B (+424.07M)
Down Volume: 642.45M (-747.55M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.81 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.38 to 1

New Highs: 65 (-5)
New Lows: 52 (-19)

S&P
Stats: +10.07 points (+0.36%) to close at 2815.44
NYSE Volume: 753.131M (-8.18%)

Up Volume: 492.659M (+231.806M)
Down Volume: 240.034M (-291.105M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.15 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.18 to 1

New Highs: 130 (-13)
New Lows: 31 (-2)

SENTIMENT

VIX: 14.43; -0.72
VXN: 17.99; -0.75
VXO: 15.67; -1.09

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.87; -0.16

Bulls and Bears:

Knew there would be a bounce in bullish sentiment. Interestingly, more of a relative decline in bears then the rise in bulls. Did its jobs on the crossover though that was quite some time back.

Bulls: 53.9 versus 52.4

Bears: 20.6 versus 21.4

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 53.9 versus 52.4
52.4 versus 52.9 versus 52.4 versus 51.9 versus 49.5 versus 48.6 versus 45.8 versus 45.4 versus 34.8 versus 29.9 versus 39.3 versus 45.4 versus 46.7 versus 38.3 versus 39.6 versus 42.9 versus 42.5 versus 50.5 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 61.8 versus 60.6 versus 59.0 versus 57.7 versus 60.1 versus 59.6 versus 57.7 versus 57.3 versus 54.9 versus 54.5 versus 54.9 versus 55.3 versus 52.4 versus 47.1 versus 47.6 versus 52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2

Bears: 20.6 versus 21.4
21.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.4 versus 20.7 versus 21.5 versus 20.6 versus 20.6 versus 21.3 versus 29.4 versus 34.6 versus 21.4 versus 20.4 versus 21.50 versus 20.6 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 19.8 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 18.3 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.5 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.4 versus 17.6 versus 17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2 versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.381% versus 2.381%.

3 month: 2.437% versus 2.434% versus 2.47%
2 year: 2.226% versus 2.21 versus 2.268%

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). Last trade over 3% was November 2018.

2.281% versus 2.421% versus 2.443% versus 2.437% versus 2.538% versus 2.524% versus 2.616% versus 2.601% versus 2.591% versus 2.628% versus 2.625% versus 2.60% versus 2.641% versus 2.632% versus 2.641% versus 2.693% versus 2.715% versus 2.724% versus 2.759% versus 2.717% versus 2.673% versus 2.636% versus 2.672% versus 2.654% versus 2.695% versus 2.641% versus 2.641% versus 2.664% versus 2.654% versus 2.706% versus 2.686%


EUR/USD: 1.12310 versus 1.12452. Euro continues to sell toward the early March low.

Historical: 1.12452 versus 1.12754 versus 1.13145 versus 1.13009 versus 1.13713 versus 1.14314 versus 1.13526 versus 1.13359 versus 1.13248 versus 1.13070 versus 1.13271 versus 1.12895 versus 1.12592 versus 1.12344 versus 1.1191 versus 1.13123 versus 1.13050 versus 1.13344 versus 1.13650 versus 1.13725 versus 1.13790 versus 1.1391 versus 1.13598 versus 1.13332 versus 1.13363 versus 1.14490 versus 1.13544 versus 1.12922 versus 1.12955 versus 1.12616 versus 1.3323 versus 1.12816 versus 1.13218 versus 1.13396 versus 1.13645 versus 1.1396 versus 1.14350


USD/JPY: 110.816 versus 110.132. Dollar makes a solid bounce.

Historical: Last below 109 in June 2018 then tumbled to 107 in early January 2019. 114.51 is the recent high from October 2018.

110.132 versus 110.537 versus 110.113 versus 109.92 versus 110.72 versus 110.673 versus 111.374 versus 111.432 versus 111.470 versus 111.715 versus 111.314 versus 111.428 versus 111.165 versus 111.482 versus 111.624 versus 111.845 versus 111.856 versus 111.921 versus 111.433 versus 110.873 versus 110.53 versus 110.979 versus 110.670 versus 110.664 versus 110.786 versus 110.848 versus 110.469 versus 110.462 versus 110.945 versus 110.523 versus 110.488 versus 109.754


Oil: 59.30, -0.10. Nice hold at the 20 day EMA on the low, continuing the lateral move.


Gold: 1295.30, -15.10. Knifing lower through the 50 day MA. Gold losing its luster quickly.


FRIDAY

LYFT goes public Friday at $72. The first big IPO in a string of big IPO's. The market has tread water ahead of the opening day. I would posit, given the solid patterns of the indices, at least solid in holding up when no one wanted to buy. If the LYFT IPO goes well, perhaps everyone breaths a sigh of relief and buys. OR, think of this: if it does NOT go well, perhaps investors think 'why are we in these?' and buy the old standbys?

I like that the indices have held the line in the rotation, pre-IPO binge. I don't think DJ30, SP400, RUTX are ready to move higher near term in a significant way: they are working on 6 month bases and likely have a few more weeks work ahead. SP500 and NASDAQ can pave the way, they are set up to do that, but nothing has excited buyers the past week. Perhaps the IPO success or failure does.

The 'up this way, up that way' choice is born of the indices holding support on light trade in decent patterns. Of leaders doing the same. The market looks as if it is setting up to move up, but it is also STILL at that inflection point at the resistance range. Good looks only get you so far. Have to make the move.

Not sure it happens Friday, but there are some good-looking patterns out there. NVDA, AMZN, AVGO, AMD, MSFT -- plenty look very good. We would love to get into them if they can show the moves. That is what it is all about right now: will the leaders show the moves and drive the indices higher? If they do we are ready to get more in these.

Have a great evening!

End part 1
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Market Alert - To the Close

Another day with not much resolution of the current market situation. Some leaders still rising, others still testing, most stocks going nowhere.

That in itself is not bad. Looking at leaders across the market, the same action persists, i.e. holding support in a tight range, lighter trade, holding nearer support. V, AMD, AAPL, NVDA, GOOG, AVGO, TSM, MSFT and many others are off recent highs but doing a solid job of holding near support, riding out the lack of bids and current lack of interest.

All this while LYFT is readying to price and come public. If these issues survive with good pullbacks into the launch of these new issues, they will be in position to move higher once those issues come to market. LYFT comes to market Friday.

SP500 10.87, 0.39%
NASDAQ 27.70, 0.37%
DJ30 93.15, 0.36%
SP400 0.80%
RUTX 0.71%
SOX -0.03%
NASDAQ 100 0.20%

Transports are not bad yet again with rails and truckers higher. FDX, UPS up modestly as well.

Volume remains lower on NYSE, NASDAQ, again showing not a lot of buying as the indices move higher, but not much selling on those stocks still testing. Again, just a lack of bids.

Makes for fairly static trade and indeed watching some stocks backtrack to support and fail to bounce is to a certain extent nerve racking. We are watching to see if the leaders can hold that support and rebound once more.

Like VIAV as it is bouncing on rising trade.
______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com

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Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +2.73; DJ +46.41; NASDAQ +6.71

A lower start built into gains early, but since the indices are trading around the flat line, edging higher, edging lower in an undecided trade.

Volume has remained overall light as the indices fade as buyers have not been ready to bid stocks overall. That hesitation continues this morning.

Q4 GDP final: 2.2 vs 2.3 exp vs 2.6 second revision. That still leaves yearly GDP at 3.0%, something not done for over a decade, the first time that has occurred since the Great Depression (not recession, depression).

Consumption revised lower, adding 1.66% to GDP, down from 1.92%. Year/year 2.5% versus 2.8% prior

Business Investment -0.8%

Corporate profits -0.4% vs +3.5% Q3


Trade: US officials say China has made interesting proposals on tech transfers though there are still issues on enforcement and IP issues. Mnuchin and others go to China today.


Earnings beats: LULU; PVH; FIVE (but down guidance); Accenture, Movado

Misses: VRNT (TL)

Upgrades: MNST

Downgrades: FDX


FB: Sued by feds over discrimination in advertising. Hmmm.

IPO: LYFT price increased to $70-72


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.377% versus 2.381%. Yields continue their slide.

EUR/USD: 1.1227 vs 1.12452

USD/JPY: 110.48 vs 110.32

Oil: 58.36, -1.05. Oil drops hard after Trump says OPEC needs to pump more as world markets are 'fragile.'

Gold: 1306.50, -10.40


Futures back and forth in mushy trade. The morning cap is low 2800's for SP as again the bids just do not have strength to push prices higher.

The WED action was not bad, but it didn't change anything, just bought time for the indices to try and improve. With a lack of conviction, we will see if the leaders can hold near support and thus the indices as well.

______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com

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Wednesday, March 27, 2019

The Daily, Part 1, 3-27-19

* * * *
3/27/2019 Investment House Daily
* * * *

Investment House Daily Subscribers:

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: HUBS; TSLA
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: MTCH; WDC; WMT

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you can sign up at the following link:
https://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy, Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to the portion you wish to view.

TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
https://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4

TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
https://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4

********************************************************************

The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.


MARKET SUMMARY

- Stocks sell off, as with Monday's gain, not any volume, and the indices and stocks recover decently.
- Serious recoveries off the lows equal to the losses off the highs Tuesday.
- Leaders remain the same: some surging, some in great tests, some testing farther.
- Some other groups show life, e.g. builders. Still, the list of leaders is a bit thinner.
- Interest rates fall across the curve, leaving rates lower but the curve the same.

Tuesday saw the market give up really good gains but still manage an upside close. Upside, but as noted, less than solid. Wednesday the sellers were taking the indices lower to substantial losses, then the sellers lost their dominance and stocks recovered off their lows. Similar to Tuesday in a mirror image sort of way, the downside saw impressive losses turn not so impressive as the indices recovered to hold support -- at least those that are at some support.

SP500 recovered 17 and closed down 13 (-30 at the low). NASDAQ recovered 61 points (closed off 48.14). DJ30 201 points (closed -32.14). SOX not so great: recovered 10 points off the low but closed -20. At least it held the 20 day EMA and the late February prior high.

SP500 -13.09, -0.46%
NASDAQ -48.14, -0.63%
DJ30 -32.14, -0.13%
SP400 -0.09%
RUTX -0.39%
SOX -1.45%
NASDAQ 100 -0.58%

VOLUME: NYSE +1%, NASDAQ +8%. Both remained below average. At least the sellers have not rushed in when the market sold off the high Tuesday and sold to the low near noon Wednesday. Outside of the Friday selling on the New York Fed's new theory about yield curve inversions, volume is light.

ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE -1.2:1, NASDAQ -1.4:1. The rebound kept things from getting ugly.

A quick scan of the leaders offered some insight as the strong continued their strength, those testing continued to test, perhaps a bit deeper, while some new strength emerged.

Transports finally showed some life with a gain in a down market. Not breaking out, but back to the 50 day EMA. Airlines recovered some even as LUV warned about the impact of the BA grounding. Not breakouts necessarily, but stronger Truckers have decent patterns, or at least they are not worse. Rails added modest gains but sport decent patterns.

Homebuilders gapped higher on the LEN, KBH earnings.

The rally horses continued to run. CMG, ULTA added more upside.

Others tested. AVGO looks good. NVDA looks really good to break higher. LRCX solid. AMZN looks great and AAPL is showing a nice tight doji at the 10 day EMA.

Still others tested deeper, e.g. GOOG (at the early March peak), AMD (down to the 20 day EMA). ADBE held over the 20 day EMA quite well.

The leaders pose an interesting question: if the sellers were really out for blood then they would be taking down the big leaders. Some are being sold yes, but it is not wanton selling.

New issues are coming and people want to be part of Lyft, etc., and thus some money is being raised from selling some of these other stocks. At this juncture, however, they have not torn them down.

INTEREST RATES

Still a problem as bonds continue to rally, driving rates lower. Low rates is not bad, not bad at all. They plummeted during the Reagan years as the economy surged. High growth and low employment does not equate to higher interest rates in the real world, just in the Phillips Curve's own little make believe world. Thus, I am not that worried about low rates, just the RELATIVE level of rates between the various debt instruments.

The 3 month yield remains over the 10 year: 2.434% 3 month versus 2.381% 10 year.

The 2 year is still below 2 year: 2.21% versus 2.381% 10 year.

The 3 month/10 year spread remained 4BP.

The 2 year/10 year spread widened to 17BP from 15BP

Again, whether the 3 month/10 year means anything is an open question outside the NY Fed. The historically more important spread involving the 3 month is with the 30 year as strange as that seems, and that is currently 36BP. Close but no cigar, at least yet.

CHARTS

SP500: Decent job of holding the line, undercutting the 20 day EMA on the low, recovering to hold it at the close with still very tepid volume. It avoided selling off, but the buyers have not returned in enough numbers to get off this near support.

NASDAQ: Same action as SP500, undercutting the 20 day EMA and testing the early March prior high, recovering to hold over the 20 day EMA. Volume moved up but still below average. It is notable it was not surging as NASDAQ stocks recovered off the morning lows. Held, but not much more, and needs the chips and big names to reengage.

DJ30: Rather solid action with a third doji over the 50 day MA. Low volume, certainly has the look it is trying to build something of a right shoulder to a 6 month potential inverted head and shoulders. Many components still struggling, e.g. financial, WMT, but at least BA was up.

SOX: Faded the most, but it usually does gain more or lose more. As with SP500 and NASDAQ, the chips held at the 20 day EMA on the close. Not as much rebound, but held at the late February closing high as noted earlier.

SP400: Doji with tail, holding the 50 day MA after reaching lower intraday. Not bad, could pull something out of the hat here at the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the mid-January to late February run. Could. Has to prove it.

RUTX: Not quite doing it. Sold off, recovered big (16 points to close -5.93), but still below the 50 day MA's with a hangman doji. Kind of bear flag-looking.



MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: -32.14 points (-0.13%) to close at 25625.59

Nasdaq
Stats: -48.15 points (-0.63%) to close at 7643.38
Volume: 2.24B (+7.69%)

Up Volume: 825.93M (-434.07M)
Down Volume: 1.39B (+606.96M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.38 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.05 to 1

New Highs: 70 (+4)
New Lows: 71 (+23)

S&P
Stats: -13.09 points (-0.46%) to close at 2805.37
NYSE Volume: 820.182M (+0.56%)

Up Volume: 260.853M (+115.476M)
Down Volume: 531.14M (+385.762M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.18 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.81 to 1

New Highs: 143 (-4)
New Lows: 33 (+10)

SENTIMENT

VIX: 15.15; +0.47
VXN: 18.74; +0.11
VXO: 16.76; +0.95

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.03; +0.15

Bulls and Bears:

Knew there would be a bounce in bullish sentiment. Interestingly, more of a relative decline in bears then the rise in bulls. Did its jobs on the crossover though that was quite some time back.

Bulls: 53.9 versus 52.4

Bears: 20.6 versus 21.4

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 53.9 versus 52.4
52.4 versus 52.9 versus 52.4 versus 51.9 versus 49.5 versus 48.6 versus 45.8 versus 45.4 versus 34.8 versus 29.9 versus 39.3 versus 45.4 versus 46.7 versus 38.3 versus 39.6 versus 42.9 versus 42.5 versus 50.5 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 61.8 versus 60.6 versus 59.0 versus 57.7 versus 60.1 versus 59.6 versus 57.7 versus 57.3 versus 54.9 versus 54.5 versus 54.9 versus 55.3 versus 52.4 versus 47.1 versus 47.6 versus 52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2

Bears: 20.6 versus 21.4
21.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.4 versus 20.7 versus 21.5 versus 20.6 versus 20.6 versus 21.3 versus 29.4 versus 34.6 versus 21.4 versus 20.4 versus 21.50 versus 20.6 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 19.8 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 18.3 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.5 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.4 versus 17.6 versus 17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2 versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.381% versus 2.421%. All rates fell but fell more or less in sync, thus keeping the yield curve status quo.

3 month: 2.434% versus 2.47% versus 2.465%.
2 year: 2.21 versus 2.268% versus 2.26%.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). Last trade over 3% was November 2018.

2.421% versus 2.443% versus 2.437% versus 2.538% versus 2.524% versus 2.616% versus 2.601% versus 2.591% versus 2.628% versus 2.625% versus 2.60% versus 2.641% versus 2.632% versus 2.641% versus 2.693% versus 2.715% versus 2.724% versus 2.759% versus 2.717% versus 2.673% versus 2.636% versus 2.672% versus 2.654% versus 2.695% versus 2.641% versus 2.641% versus 2.664% versus 2.654% versus 2.706% versus 2.686%


EUR/USD: 1.12452 versus 1.12754. Dollar gains more, though just modestly compared to the Tuesday euro dump.

Historical: 1.12754 versus 1.13145 versus 1.13009 versus 1.13713 versus 1.14314 versus 1.13526 versus 1.13359 versus 1.13248 versus 1.13070 versus 1.13271 versus 1.12895 versus 1.12592 versus 1.12344 versus 1.1191 versus 1.13123 versus 1.13050 versus 1.13344 versus 1.13650 versus 1.13725 versus 1.13790 versus 1.1391 versus 1.13598 versus 1.13332 versus 1.13363 versus 1.14490 versus 1.13544 versus 1.12922 versus 1.12955 versus 1.12616 versus 1.3323 versus 1.12816 versus 1.13218 versus 1.13396 versus 1.13645 versus 1.1396 versus 1.14350


USD/JPY: 110.132 versus 110.537. Dollar rallied up to the 50 day MA's, tapped them, then faded Wednesday. Has the look the dollar is heading lower near term after failing twice at the 200 day SMA in March.

Historical: Last below 109 in June 2018 then tumbled to 107 in early January 2019. 114.51 is the recent high from October 2018.

110.537 versus 110.113 versus 109.92 versus 110.72 versus 110.673 versus 111.374 versus 111.432 versus 111.470 versus 111.715 versus 111.314 versus 111.428 versus 111.165 versus 111.482 versus 111.624 versus 111.845 versus 111.856 versus 111.921 versus 111.433 versus 110.873 versus 110.53 versus 110.979 versus 110.670 versus 110.664 versus 110.786 versus 110.848 versus 110.469 versus 110.462 versus 110.945 versus 110.523 versus 110.488 versus 109.754


Oil: 59.41, -0.53.


Gold: 1310.40, -4.60.


THURSDAY

In response to the Friday selloff, this week has thus far shown a wash day Monday, a bounce Tuesday that could have been great but was not, and a selloff attempt that could have been bad but was mitigated. The result has left the indices at near support still.

Of course, they need to do more than just sit at support. For more upside, we wanted to see a fairly definitive move higher, and again, Tuesday looked as if it would fill the bill -- until it didn't. Perhaps the indices can simply consolidate and work the Friday selling out of the system and set up a new move.

Perhaps. Not hold the breath, but perhaps enough cash has been raised for the new issues. Again, that volume is not heavy, not showing lots of sellers swarming. Not saying the upside is now taking over the path of least resistance, the predominant bias, but if the volume remains this light, there certainly are not market sellers, just some profit takers freeing up some money for other areas such as IPO's, rotating to other groups.

We closed some positions that were not holding support. If other stocks testing cannot deliver a good move from this level we will have to look at closing them again versus suffering another downside leg. A bounce would be great, one for more than a few hours, as that would give a better assessment of buying strength. If a bounce takes the indices near the recent highs from last week and they fail, that is a clear signal.

Have a great evening!

End part 1
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Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +2.4; DJ +5.27; NASD +5.6

Futures were up early at the overnight open, sold off to 7:00ET with DJ down more than 100 pts. Since, a steady move back up though below the very early morning high. Good to see a low to high move, but that was the case Tuesday and stocks ended up giving up big chunks of that gain. Volume was not huge that day, but the buyers just did not have enough to close out the deal, at least near the highs.

Good to see futures coming back, but there is a lot for the upside to prove today.


M&A: CNC buying WCG in healthcare, creating a bit ACA behemoth just as Trump starts talking repealing the ACA again.


Trade, Jan: $51.5B vs $57B exp vs 59.9B prior.
China exports fall hard.
The 14.6% decline is the largest since 3/2018.
Exports +1.9B
Imports: -6.8B


BA: Software fix to be presented to Congress today.

Fed: Likely Fed nominee Stephen Moore is for cutting rates 50BP


Upgrades: Tons. BA, PZZA, RL, CMG, SKX, WING, PANW, CYBR, SQ

Earnings Beats: Shoe Carnival

Misses: LEN (TL, BL); KBH (TL). Both homebuilders


Turkey: CDS rates surge 700%. That is . . . collapse worthy.


Interest rates: All yields are lower today as bonds rally again. The 3 month and 2 year are falling less than the 10 year, and that means the yield curve is flatter.


OTHER MARKETS
Bonds: 2.398% 10 year vs 2.421%

EUR/USD: 1.1269 vs 1.1262

USD/JPY: 110.47 vs 110.55

Oil: 59.84, -0.10

Gold: 1314.40, -0.60


The recovery in futures is stalled the past half hour with most modest gains. While Tuesday was up, as you know it was not a session that made a difference for the upside, i.e. it failed to show the upside was back in control. Today is thus an important day for how the leaders that have tested recently hold the tests. The burden is on the upside to continue from here with NASDAQ and SP500, having broken the resistance, on call to show they can continue the move. The slow build this morning would need to continue, but as noted, it is stalling out some with just modest upside.


______________________________________
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
InvestmentHouse.com

Alert Key
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertkey.htm

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Tuesday, March 26, 2019

The Daily, Part 1 of 2, 3-25-19

* * * *
3/26/2019 Investment House Daily
* * * *

Investment House Daily Subscribers:

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: AAPL; YETI
Entry alerts: AVGO; HTHT; NVDA
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you can sign up at the following link:
https://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

********************************************************************

The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.

Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to view the index charts, and updated play table.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.


MARKET SUMMARY

- Solid early bounce looked very promising, then the indices fritter away really good gains.
- Gains were not bad, but compared to what was lost, they look bad.
- Technical action not great though many leaders moved nicely higher while others still put in good tests.
- Either the leaders lead higher or the market takes a deeper test.

Well, THAT certainly was not convincing. The stock indices all finished higher, sporting some solid closing gains. Problem is, they gave up nearly as many points from the high as they showed as gains on the close. NASDAQ burned 47 points from the high (closed up 53.98), DJ30 139 (closed up 140), SOX 12 (closed 14 pts higher). Gains, but from one doji to another, albeit a bit higher off near support.

SP500 20.10, 0.72%
NASDAQ 53.08, 0.71%
DJ30 140.90, 0.55%
SP400 0.99%
RUTX 1.01%
SOX 1.01%
NASDAQ 100 0.47%

VOLUME: NYSE flat; NASDAQ -2%. Oh great, upside moves with some over 1% (giving up much larger intraday moves) and volume shrinks. Not many buyers, easy for the sellers to push them back.

ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE 2.8:1, NASDAQ 2.1:1. Decent, but not anything blowout.

The internals were so-so to less than mediocre. Volume was the key, but at least it did not surge as stocks gave up the chunks of upside.

What happens when you gain almost 1% and still look weak?

Again, if you scan the closing percentage gains you are favorably impressed. If you look at the intraday action and the charts, you are not. About all the indices did was bounce where they had to. It was not, as noted earlier, convincing.

To view, click on the following links:

http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/sp500.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/NASDAQ.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/DJ30.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/RUTX.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SP400.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/SOX.jpg
http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/charts/nasdaq100.jpg


SP500 gave back less from the high than other indices -- thank goodness because it still closed mid-level of the indices. NASDAQ 100 lagged as the recently leading big names that were testing modestly tested farther. AMZN managed to hold a gain on the session, but it was well off the high, dropping 22 points from that high closing up 9.50.

RUTX looks like a classic selloff and weaker rebound, bouncing up to the 50 day MA's, moving through it, then fading to close below them. Again, 1475-1470 looks like a natural support level.

SP400 is not bad, gapping back over the 50 day MA's and holding the move. That keeps alive the possibility of a double bottom at the 61% Fibonacci retracement or just a lateral move for a right shoulder to a possible inverted head and shoulders starting in October.

Ditto DJ30 as it holds over the 50 day MA's and 200 day SMA in a similar pattern to SP400.

SOX gapped off the doji at the 20 day EMA to another doji at the bottom of the resistance range. Iffy.

Sellers still taking shots, testing the waters, though not much volume at all.

While not a meltdown, the fact that many big names reversed early gains and the indices and most stocks closed off the session highs -- well off the those highs -- shows the sellers are still there, selling into strength.

The futures showed a slow steady build higher, the kind of action that suggests more staying power than those days where they gap higher and hang in the same narrow range to the open. Thus, the move had a pretty good pedigree. The fact that so much was given back after the midmorning high shows the sellers were again pushing back against the upside here at the top of the resistance range.

Thus, the upside move in the charts Tuesday shows the indices did what they had to, but they did the very minimum. Frankly, it just does not look to be any kind of serious rebound, certainly it does not wipe away that Friday reversal of the solid Thursday price gains. The sellers are present, blunting the upside attempts by stocks that Monday were in very good position to recover. They did -- through midmorning -- then the return of the sellers took all of the luster off the session.

The gains notwithstanding, the action suggests no stomach for much further upside at this juncture. The indices can still pull it off as they did not hurt themselves, but the buyers have to be stronger and/or the sellers weaker. The second failure makes it look as if the market wants to test deeper than just a casual brush with the top of the range. SP500 and NASDAQ moved back over the top of the range and perhaps that will rejuvenate the buyers watching SP500 2800-2815 (closed at 2818), but they will have to show it.

If not, then a deeper test. 2800 is holding for now, but the sellers are taking shots at it. Frankly, it is not showing enough pop to convince us. Today's upside looked solid but the lion's share of the upside did not hold. On the heels of Friday, if there is not a serious upside session -- that holds the gains -- soon, then there is more of a test near term versus a move upside.

The proof will be in the 'names,' the stocks in good patterns that everyone knows. Some recent leaders include GOOG, AMZN, NVDA, AVGO, ULTA, AAPL, V, MSFT, LRCX, CMG.

CMG, V, ULTA, AVGO posted some solid moves on the session. Solid.

GOOG, AAPL, LRCX, CRM, AMD tested a bit more, still holding support, still solid, but at the point they need to make a move.

AMZN, NVDA, MSFT were up but closed well off the high, enough to make the action problematic. Very good tests for AMZN and NVDA, started upside, added more early Tuesday, but then melted back.

The indices will be led by leaders such as these. Still overall in good position but not making as crisp a bounce as in the past. If they cannot do it and hold the move, the indices surely will not either.


A final thought on the technical aspects: Jim Cramer was talking M&A and what deals make sense. You KNOW the market is not performing well when Cramer starts looking for deals to give the market life. You also know that the market is not showing very good action when he turns to technical analysis. He mostly pays it no heed until things don't work as he thinks they should. Then suddenly TA becomes important. What to take from that: the stocks he likes and views as bellwethers are not just powering higher off a test. Hey, that would concern anyone who was watching with a close eye as the indices continue to struggle to get through the penultimate resistance below the prior highs.


ECONOMY/NEWS

Fed Funds Futures: The contracts for September through January ALL now show greater than a 50% probability of a rate cut at those meetings. Before this week only January was pricing in a 50%+ chance of a rate cut.


Housing Starts, Feb: -8.7% vs -1.6% expected vs +11.7% prior (revised lower from 18.6%)

Building Permits, Feb: -1.6%

Single family homes take it on the chin, -17% for the month, -10% year/year.


MARKET STATS

DJ30
Stats: +140.90 points (+0.55%) to close at 25657.73

Nasdaq
Stats: +53.98 points (+0.71%) to close at 7691.52
Volume: 2.08B (-2.35%)

Up Volume: 1.26B (+264.98M)
Down Volume: 783.04M (-296.96M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.05 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.1 to 1

New Highs: 66 (+9)
New Lows: 48 (-47)

S&P
Stats: +20.10 points (+0.72%) to close at 2818.46
NYSE Volume: 815.594M (+0.69%)

Up Volume: 145.378M (-1.435B)
Down Volume: 145.378M (-1.525B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.81 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.08 to 1

New Highs: 147 (+75)
New Lows: 23 (-39)

SENTIMENT

VIX: 14.68; -1.65
VXN: 18.63; -0.81
VXO: 15.81; -2.00

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.88; +0.02

Bulls and Bears:

Knew there would be a bounce in bullish sentiment. Interestingly, more of a relative decline in bears then the rise in bulls. Did its jobs on the crossover though that was quite some time back.

Bulls: 53.9 versus 52.4

Bears: 20.6 versus 21.4

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 53.9 versus 52.4
52.4 versus 52.9 versus 52.4 versus 51.9 versus 49.5 versus 48.6 versus 45.8 versus 45.4 versus 34.8 versus 29.9 versus 39.3 versus 45.4 versus 46.7 versus 38.3 versus 39.6 versus 42.9 versus 42.5 versus 50.5 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 61.8 versus 60.6 versus 59.0 versus 57.7 versus 60.1 versus 59.6 versus 57.7 versus 57.3 versus 54.9 versus 54.5 versus 54.9 versus 55.3 versus 52.4 versus 47.1 versus 47.6 versus 52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2

Bears: 20.6 versus 21.4
21.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.4 versus 20.7 versus 21.5 versus 20.6 versus 20.6 versus 21.3 versus 29.4 versus 34.6 versus 21.4 versus 20.4 versus 21.50 versus 20.6 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 19.8 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 18.3 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.5 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.4 versus 17.6 versus 17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2 versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds: 2.421% versus 2.443%. Bonds rallied, yields fell some. Bonds holding the gap higher from Friday as TLT cleared the January high on that move. Lower rates overall is okay -- just want the curve to stay normal.

3 month: 2.47% versus 2.465%. Spread narrows here as well.
2 year: 2.268% versus 2.26%. Spread narrows a bit with the 10 year.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). Last trade over 3% was November 2018.

2.443% versus 2.437% versus 2.538% versus 2.524% versus 2.616% versus 2.601% versus 2.591% versus 2.628% versus 2.625% versus 2.60% versus 2.641% versus 2.632% versus 2.641% versus 2.693% versus 2.715% versus 2.724% versus 2.759% versus 2.717% versus 2.673% versus 2.636% versus 2.672% versus 2.654% versus 2.695% versus 2.641% versus 2.641% versus 2.664% versus 2.654% versus 2.706% versus 2.686%


EUR/USD: 1.12754 versus 1.13145. Euro fall renewed after crashing below the 50 day MA Thursday.

Historical: 1.13145 versus 1.13009 versus 1.13713 versus 1.14314 versus 1.13526 versus 1.13359 versus 1.13248 versus 1.13070 versus 1.13271 versus 1.12895 versus 1.12592 versus 1.12344 versus 1.1191 versus 1.13123 versus 1.13050 versus 1.13344 versus 1.13650 versus 1.13725 versus 1.13790 versus 1.1391 versus 1.13598 versus 1.13332 versus 1.13363 versus 1.14490 versus 1.13544 versus 1.12922 versus 1.12955 versus 1.12616 versus 1.3323 versus 1.12816 versus 1.13218 versus 1.13396 versus 1.13645 versus 1.1396 versus 1.14350


USD/JPY: 110.537 versus 110.113

Historical: Last below 109 in June 2018 then tumbled to 107 in early January 2019. 114.51 is the recent high from October 2018.

110.113 versus 109.92 versus 110.72 versus 110.673 versus 111.374 versus 111.432 versus 111.470 versus 111.715 versus 111.314 versus 111.428 versus 111.165 versus 111.482 versus 111.624 versus 111.845 versus 111.856 versus 111.921 versus 111.433 versus 110.873 versus 110.53 versus 110.979 versus 110.670 versus 110.664 versus 110.786 versus 110.848 versus 110.469 versus 110.462 versus 110.945 versus 110.523 versus 110.488 versus 109.754


Oil: 59.94, +1.12.


Gold: 1315.00, -7.69


WEDNESDAY

An upside session with overall solid index gains that was still technically blah or even worse. Volume still below average so no real upside push. Gave back large chunks off the session high. Breadth was okay, but for the gains, not that strong.

It was simply a golden opportunity for NASDAQ and SP500 and even SOX to really move up off the recent test, and it slipped away. That leaves the indices totally problematic right now as sellers have come in twice and stopped advances and more, pushed them back.

On the other side you have those leaders discussed earlier that are moving well, in position to bounce (and need to), and those problematic, i.e. moved upside off support but unlike say CMG and ULTA, could not hold most of the move. These will have to produce upside if the near term gains are to be held and the indices are to move higher from here.

There is an awful lot riding on NASDAQ, SP500 and SOX as well. May be too much for them to hold the market higher, but we will see. It could be the market used up the upside attempt today with the early rally, but those well-positioned stocks will have a chance to show if they can do it.

If so, we have some great upside setups. If not, we have some downside plays ready to give it a try, and we will be closing the upside that is anywhere close to problematic. Wednesday is another day the indices and leaders show if they still have it.

Have a great evening!

End part 1 of 2
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