Futures vs FV: SP +2.4; DJ +5.27; NASD +5.6
Futures were up early at the overnight open, sold off to 7:00ET with DJ down more than 100 pts. Since, a steady move back up though below the very early morning high. Good to see a low to high move, but that was the case Tuesday and stocks ended up giving up big chunks of that gain. Volume was not huge that day, but the buyers just did not have enough to close out the deal, at least near the highs.
Good to see futures coming back, but there is a lot for the upside to prove today.
M&A: CNC buying WCG in healthcare, creating a bit ACA behemoth just as Trump starts talking repealing the ACA again.
Trade, Jan: $51.5B vs $57B exp vs 59.9B prior.
China exports fall hard.
The 14.6% decline is the largest since 3/2018.
BA: Software fix to be presented to Congress today.
Fed: Likely Fed nominee Stephen Moore is for cutting rates 50BP
Upgrades: Tons. BA, PZZA, RL, CMG, SKX, WING, PANW, CYBR, SQ
Earnings Beats: Shoe Carnival
Misses: LEN (TL, BL); KBH (TL). Both homebuilders
Turkey: CDS rates surge 700%. That is . . . collapse worthy.
Interest rates: All yields are lower today as bonds rally again. The 3 month and 2 year are falling less than the 10 year, and that means the yield curve is flatter.
Bonds: 2.398% 10 year vs 2.421%
EUR/USD: 1.1269 vs 1.1262
USD/JPY: 110.47 vs 110.55
Oil: 59.84, -0.10
Gold: 1314.40, -0.60
The recovery in futures is stalled the past half hour with most modest gains. While Tuesday was up, as you know it was not a session that made a difference for the upside, i.e. it failed to show the upside was back in control. Today is thus an important day for how the leaders that have tested recently hold the tests. The burden is on the upside to continue from here with NASDAQ and SP500, having broken the resistance, on call to show they can continue the move. The slow build this morning would need to continue, but as noted, it is stalling out some with just modest upside.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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