Futures vs FV: SP +1.09; DJ -5.65; NASDAQ -1.86
Trade again is dominant but some solid retail sales from areas thought retail-dead are helping.
Trade: Chinese Premiere says negotiations are "difficult" even as the US continues to say there will be a deal. Each day the pundits are discounting or extolling a deal. It is not done. It will likely not be anything major despite what Larry Kudlow says. If it is, great. As the US wants it structured it likely will not be. The market will simply be glad it is over even if it is a bad deal. If no deal and the tariffs remain and are increased, then that is bad market news.
China: Cuts its 2019 GDP target.
China's largest home seller is cutting all prices by 10% as sales drop.
Retail: TGT, KSS post surprise, strong beats.
Fed: Rosengren says the pause is appropriate. Wow, stop the presses.
Taxes: Democrats introducing a bill to tax by 10 BP all stock transactions with an aim to cut out HFT. Okay, then why not tax the thing you want to cut out and leave out the individual? Because lower HFT is not the goal -- money is the goal. Money to spend and spend and spend. Of course the GOP will protest but go along. Why? Money to spend and spend and spend.
Bonds: 2.742% vs 2.724% 10 year
USD/JPY: 111.87 vs 111.73
EUR/USD: 1.1328 vs 1.1355. Dollar continues a new spurt higher against the euro.
Oil: 56.80, +0.21. Still higher.
Futures are flattish, not bad after the Monday plunge and damage control. Sellers showed up, backed off. They will likely try again given the indices are still below resistance. The buyers and sellers are actually fighting a bit, so we see who wins and then make more definitive moves.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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