Futures vs FV: SP -1.12; DJ -10.38; NASD +4.97
Not a lot of slide higher thus far toward this afternoon's FOMC policy decision. Futures are range-trading back and forth around the flat line all morning -- cannot get much more indecisive as that. A run to this point has taken NASDAQ, SP500 through resistance, and now ahead of the FOMC there is somewhat of a wait and see what the Fed does. Some are saying the market has set itself up for disappointment, expecting the Fed to turn even more dovish. If that is what the market expects, then they could be right, especially after this kind of move higher.
The economic news in terms of earnings and warnings is not great.
FDX earnings disappointed and it warned the world economy was slowing. Hmm. Nothing new there I would posit.
BMW warned that earnings would be 'well below' 2018.
UBS warns that Q1 was "one of the worst" in recent history.
GIS at least bit and had a more positive outlook.
GOOG: Hit with a 1.7B euro fine from the EU for monopolistic practices.
Upgrades: COST; AGN; JAZZ; DLTR
Downgrades: MNST; BBY; WEN; YUM; SNE
Mortgages: +1.6%, up for a second week.
Bonds: 2.592 vs 2.616. Moving up ahead of the FOMC
EUR/USD: 1.1355, +0.05
USD/JPY: 111.46, +0.09
Oil: 58.52, -0.51
Gold: 1307.20, +0.70
Expecting this flat trade to give way to the usual slow rise into the FOMC decision. Then we see just how the Fed views the future. Not expecting any change at this point, but some will given the FDX, UBS-type warnings. What we would like would be a NASDAQ, SP500 test of the break over resistance. We will see what the market gives.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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