Friday, March 15, 2019

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +3.47; DJ +59.06; NASD +19.01

Futures are well off the highs high just an hour back. Volatile premarket perhaps presaging a volatile expiration. Futures are still heading lower and could hit flat or negative by the open at this pace.

There was optimism as China's VP said no major stimulus, but China is engaged in major stimulus right now. Don't pay any attention to the man behind the curtain . . .

NY Empire PMI, March: 3.7 vs 10.0 ex vs 8.8 Feb. 22 month low.

Industrial Production, Feb: 0.1 vs 0.4 exp vs -0.4 Jan (from -0.6)

Capacity, Fed: 78.2 vs 78.5 exp vs 78.3 (from 78.2)

Eco data flips back to weaker than expected after some initial improvement. Perhaps still some shutdown impact, but I believe that is overblown. The government doesn't, or at least should not, have such a dramatic effect on our economy.

Earnings beats: ORCK; ADBE (lower guidance); JBL (BL); ULTA

Misses: AVGO (TL); ZUMZ (TL)

Upgrades: NFLX; AMZN; T

Downgrades: Z; LIVN; ORCL

Trade: From a 90 day deadline to indefinite push backs of the Xi/Trump meeting.

North Korea: Regime supposedly mulling the suspension of nuclear talks with the US. More drama than a 15 year old daughter.

Bonds: 2.609% vs 2.628%

EUR/USD: 1.1299 flat

USD/JPY: 111.65, -0.05

Oil: 58.13, -0.48

Gold: 1301.86, +6.78

Quad expiration, Thursday a bit up and down, Friday pre-market the same. Perhaps a bit of back and forth, but as noted last night, these expiration days are not as volatile as before, tending to spread over the week. Volume is still huge of course with a lot of market on close orders.

Indices at resistance, some leaders faded just a bit Thursday after good runs. Today looks as if it could be an up open then another light fade. That is okay upside action, however, as no major sellers, leaders taking a break to make another run, and that perhaps breaks SP500, NASDAQ over the top of the range. Likely not today, but that is so far the type of action the market is showing.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist

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