- Jobs number provides the next catalyst, sending stocks higher for day 3
- SP500 moves through next resistance on the jobs report, overcomes weak ISM services to close at session highs.
- A mixed jobs report but at this point, some good news beats the all bad news in prior reports.
- Another rare and important crossover of bullish and bearish sentiment.
- A pullback to test after the holiday would be made to order.
Market factored in bad jobs data. When some decent news hit, the market spiked again.
Stocks had factored in some bad jobs numbers heading into the Friday August jobs report. The stock market has been able to overcome bad news along the way as seen over the last two weeks. Many people were very much in the doldrums before Wednesday because the market was unable to move and was testing a support level. Everyone thought it would break down. It was problematic, but I kept saying I thought it would move up; it was showing that with the leadership stocks. It did start to break higher, and it overcame bad news that week, and again as the week moved forward. It had factored in the bad news and was up two days moving into the jobs report, and the news came in better than expected. What do you know? Jobs came in at -54K versus the -120K expected and, drum roll, July was revised from -131K to just -54K.
Pay rolls for the private sector were up +67K, topping the +44K expected. That was down from the prior month, but it was revised higher as well. We have a lot of nice revisions, and revisions are the bread and butter of economic data. When revisions are better than expected, that means a change in the economic news. Why? Because economists are just as hung up on emotion as stock investors. Stock investors are too emotional, and once they convert to either the bear side or the bull side, it takes dynamite to blast them to the other side. The same thing goes with economists: They either feel there is a recession or they feel there is no recession, and you have to hit them over the head with good numbers before they start looking the other way. You can see the change coming. You can see subtle shifts, but economists will not buy it until they are smacked across the face with a two-by-four. That is where revisions come in. When they are anticipating things as a lot worse than they actually are, things are starting to get to a turning point. That is what the market saw on Friday.
The workweek was still at 34.2 hours, but the temporary workers climbed 16.8K. They continued to rise, and temporaries always lead full-time hires because they hire temporaries first and then offer them full-time jobs. Government workers fell by another 114K. Thank goodness we are getting the census workers off the payrolls and can free that money up for other things. Earnings were interesting. They rose 0.3% versus the 0.1% expected. Earnings are better than expected, is there an increase in temporary hiring. That may be where the consumer confidence came in and where the same store sales on Thursday got their extra boost. Better income levels help buying.
Then there are the chronically unemployed. Those that have been unemployed 27 or more weeks declined to 42% from 44.9%.What about the real unemployment rate? While the unemployment rate ticked higher to 9.6% as expected, the real unemployment rate rose to 16.7% versus 16.5% in July. As the confidence increased, people came into the jobs market, and many were unable to find jobs. Therefore the unemployment number increased because those people are back in the pool seeking work. We will have to do more than 67K private sector jobs, however, to make a dent in those that have lost their jobs. The silver lining is that volatility is beginning to show in the numbers. That signals a change in seasons, and maybe we are starting to see a turn in the jobs report. The market already factored in bad news, and then it got some good news in the form of an additional catalyst to send stocks higher. On the SP500 chart, they gapped to the upside, and they rallied nicely and closed near the session high. Volume was not great, but it did not fall off the table. For a Friday before Labor Day weekend, that is not bad at all.
As for the intraday action, there was the gap higher and it was tested. Stocks recovered. The sellers came back in just before the last hour and sold stocks back down, but they did not stay down. They came back and held a support line at the intraday 50 minute EMA, and they bounced up nicely to close at session highs. There was some profit taking after three upside days, mind you, but then the shorts came in and used this to cover more positions heading into the weekend. We got the final spurt higher as well. Was it buying or was it short covering? Yes. It was both. There were people buying long, and there were a lot of shorts covering those positions after a three-day rally going into the three-day weekend. They did not want to get surprised by anything, so they were covering positions. That helped fuel the move to the upside.
While it was not a huge day, it was an extremely solid day for stocks. NASDAQ +1.5%, SP500 +1.3%, Dow +1.2%, SP600 +1.7%, SOX +1.7%, NASDAQ 100 +1.6%. It was not a big day compared to some of the other sessions that led into Friday. I was looking for a bit of a pullback ahead of the weekend, but after the good news with the jobs report, there was no turning back. The shorts were covering and some of the longs were buying. We did not do much buying. We picked up some KWR as it came off of a test. It was not extended, and I like this. It has an island reversal. It gapped lower, and it gapped back on Wednesday. There was a test Thursday, so it was not overextended, and then it started back up on Friday. We picked up a bit of that, but mostly we were taking gains.
We took gain on the TLT that we bought puts on just on Thursday. Notice how it sold back down and filled the gap as I wanted it to. We took some 30% overnight gain on that no sweat there. We took some gain on NFLX. It moved up to the prior high and started to reverse, so it was a perfect time to take some gain off the table. There was a gap and rally with AMZN, so we took a little of that after a nice four-day move to the upside. Then there is one of our favorites, AGU. It gapped higher, coming up close to the March peak. It showed a loose doji, and we took some gain on one of our positions there as well as with INFA. DE is up near the top of its ABCD pattern, but it is moving nicely. It closed off the high, and I think it will make another try at it early next week. If it does not pop through that A point, we will bank some gain and then let it test a bit and see if it can break through up to the 127% Fibonacci extension. There are others moving well, and we will have to see how they play out next week. We may get a bit of a test early in the week that gives us a chance to get into some of those stocks that gapped away from us to the upside. We got some great buys last week, but there are always a few we really want to get into but cannot quite get it because they gapped and did not give the right kind of entry. A little pullback and we will be in business.
It is also important to note that the market did overcome some bad news in the morning. It gapped higher and then there was the gap lower when the ISM services number came out. It was only a 51.35 reading, and that was lower than the 53 expected and the 54.3 reported in July. That was a bit of a hard pill for the market to swallow because services make up the majority of the economy. Manufacturing tends to show when we are coming out of a recession, but services fuel most of the economic activity. When it came in at a weaker number versus the better-looking ISM, there was a problem and the market sold back. It did hold a big chunk of the gains, however, and marched right back up. It moved through the 1100 resistance that it hit in the late afternoon. It moved through it on the close, and that is a positive going into next week. The market is coming back to test a resistance level it broke versus bumping into that resistance and fading back and needing to regroup just to attempt to crack it.
Dollar. Other markets continued the inverse relationship to the stock market, particular the US dollar. You would think if the economy was recovering that the dollar would strengthen, but that is not the case (1.2894 Euro versus 1.827). It is in a rollover, and I noted that last week with that big move lower on Wednesday. It is much lower than earlier in the week. The dollar looks like it will roll over and come back toward the 200 day EMA and this consolidation range from March and April.
Bonds. Bonds gapped lower for the third straight day. They filled most of the gap higher from early August that took it above the important twin peaks. We bought into some puts on Thursday, and we banked some of the gain on Friday. We will see if bonds break this important support level. If they do, they are heading back down into this range and these peaks and valleys. We will make more on our TLT as it turns lower. It was not long ago indeed on Tuesday that the 10 year was 2.47%. There was quite the turnaround in bonds (US 10 year 2.70% versus 2.62% Thursday).
Gold. There was no reason to fear, so gold had a tough struggle. It managed to come back and cut another of its losses on the day. It was down over 10 clicks before the market opened, but by the close it had recovered ($1,248.70, -4.70). It was a modest pullback from gold, but it is having trouble once more breaking through these prior peaks. I am still looking for a rollover on the GLD to make us money to the downside.
Oil. Oil was down on Friday. You may not expect that if economic news is better, one would expect oil to surge higher but it was a very volatile session. There was a lot of concern trading ahead of the three-day weekend, and it finished lower ($74.36, -0.66). A very volatile two weeks, and it is trying to come back and make a turn from the selloff in all of August. A nice bounce, a selloff to start last week, and then a nice recovery. Note that it has not made it out of this range. It would be interesting if oil rallied up to the 50 day EMA or maybe even the 200 day EMA. We have a sharp selloff in August, a bounce, a pullback with a higher low, and then there would be another bounce that makes a higher high. That is an inverted (or downside) ABCD pattern. Look for that to continue to move down. It is just the opposite of an ABCD upside play, but the logic is the same. Strong move down and looks like it will make the break back up, but this momentum move is still in control and it shoves it back down.
Volume. Volume fell a bit on Friday. It was down to 1.6B on NASDAQ, off 3%, and was down just over 1% on the NYSE to 945M. Volume was no great shakes to end the week, but it was solid on Wednesday. There was upside accumulation action there.
Breadth. The advance/decline line was a very good 3.4:1 on NASDAQ and a very good 3.3:1 on the NYSE. Not bad at all. Not record breaking, but very much in line with what we have seen, and there is good representation from all sectors. That makes me believe it was not all short covering and there was some actual long buying in there as well. The market was broad in its rebound.
SP500. SP500 moved up through 1100. That was an interim peak from August as well as July. It was also a peak in May. There is another resistance point it just depends where you want to call this one. It has a close at 1117, and then there is an interim peak at 1115 from July. That tells us there is a lot of resistance to go through. The key resistance is the June peak, and that is at 1132. That is followed by the August peak at 1130. Looking at a two day chart, you can look back to January and see that is where the bottom of the January peak is. That is the key level, and that marks the top of the range. For now, it is still just a range trade. Our SSO is performing well, and so are a lot of our other positions. We will let them run to the upside as long as they will. It looks like SP500 has more upside to give us toward the top of the range.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ gapped through the 50 day EMA and now it is at the gap down point from August. The opening level there was at 2237, and it closed at 2234. It is right at this important gap level. It looks like it can come up and fill that gap that is basically coincident with the 200 day EMA. That would give us a good move. You would have to start looking for a top in here. Maybe it will fumble up higher like it did in August, or maybe not. We just need to be ready. Nonetheless, we have a great trade upside in the range in progress.
SP600. SP600 put in an excellent day. It gained 1.7% and gapped up, and then it rallied up to the 200 day EMA where it closed. That is right at resistance from May and June and July. It is dealing with the May 6th flash crash right now. It has some serious resistance in its immediate future next week, and after a three-day move to the upside, it could come back to fill this gap on Friday. It could come back to the 50 day EMA, do a little back filling, and then perhaps try to take on the next range which sees that interim peak in early August and June before the late-July peak. It has room to move. It may fill back to begin next week, and then we will see if it can continue to the upside.
SOX. Semiconductors were performing fairly well on Friday. Nice gap to the upside, held most of the gain, but it is showing a hangman doji at the bottom of its prior trading range. That is the May to August trading range it was holding up so well and gapped down out of in early August. It bounced up, and it looks like it will test this move and maybe give it a kiss. I do not know if it will kiss it goodbye and fall back down. We have an SMH to the downside still, and we will continue to look at that. This move on Friday did not change my view of the potential outcomes for the semiconductors. They still look downside at this point with this bear flag coming up. There is a bit more strength given the Friday break higher, but it is still bearish overall.
Financial. Financials were enjoying a nice bounce the past week. JPM continued to move up, gapped above the 50 day EMA and continued to rally. WFC gapped to a doji right below the 50 day EMA. Not a great pattern to buy into; I am just noting that the financials finally joined in the game and the market was finally able to move higher. It was not just larger banks that joined in. EWBC gapped higher, up for the fourth day in a row. A very strong move. It moved through the 50 day EMA, but it is at a chunk of resistance right now. It may get a pullback, and that might make things interesting for a continued move to the upside. GS finally awoke, and it did so with a 5.3% upside day. Nice, strong volume, moved through the 50 day EMA, and it is at the next resistance now. Pretty solid pattern if you ignore the hiccup in mid July. There is an ABCD pattern of sorts. A nice, big break on Friday.
Industrial. DE has an ABCD pattern and a strong surge last week. The question is whether it can break through the A point in its pattern and continue onto the upside. CAT gapped to the upside, and it is a strange pattern. It is hard to play this one. Gappy, and not much of a great pattern, but a bit of an ABCD. The D point was about a week ago. Although it gapped to a doji, it was a nice move higher to finish the week. JOYG did not put much more on the board on Friday, but it had a great week. It moved to a new recovery high after the selling.
Retail. Retail was a great story last week. AMZN was up four days in a row, gapping higher on Friday. Took some gain off the table, thank you very much, and we may get a little test to start to next week. That may give us a flag pattern or a triangle to play to upside and the prior peak at 151. It is only at 139. That would be a great test to let our position move higher as well. We could add on a flag pattern to break to the upside. That would be cool, and we will see if it develops. It was also a great week for retailers such as COST. It did not have a great day Friday it gapped higher and finished basically flat but it was a fantastic week. It broke the trend, it tested it, and then it galloped higher. Outstanding. ROST had a good break off of the lows as well. This is one in a big ABCD pattern. It is moving up off the D point right now. PNRA had a great week. Trend reversal and storming higher on volume. BWLD had a great week, surging higher again on Friday on very strong volume. YUM had a nice break to a new high. Hard to argue with that move. Those retailers are moving well. A lot of them are discounters, but there are others doing well also. A lot of the eateries are doing great. People are also buying online as AMZN shows.
Metals. FCX continues to outperform. It gapped higher last week and moved through the August peak. Important move. The world's economy is built with a copper roof. If copper continues to move up, that bodes well for the world economies moving higher. Steel is still struggling a bit, but MTL had a good week. It broke higher through resistance, and it gapped higher Friday but could not hold it. A little test to start to week would be a perfect chance, if it holds, to move into more positions or to get involved for the first tame as it bounces back up off of that level.
Technology. AAPL had a good week, but it was so gappy it was really hard to get into. We will see what kind of test we get as the next week unfolds. If we get a bit of pullback, maybe we can get an opportunity. It would have to pull back quite a bit because it is already above the halfway point in its range. CTSH had a great week. This is one that gapped higher. A lot of people give up on gaps, but it came back. We bought some here, and it came back for us and kind of stuck it in our eye a bit. If you ignore the gap and look at this surge and then the pullback, you have an ABCD all contained within this move from late July and early August. Now it is powering higher and, indeed, it broke through the peak at least the closing highs at the A point on strong volume Friday. Very nice action.
Leadership that was set up well came to life this week, and leadership that was not set up that well just had a recovery. It moved back up after getting flogged. That tells us some of it is short covering, but there is also buying. When you look at the leaders moving up out of great patterns accumulation patterns they have been showing buying all along and they continue to move up out of those. Let me tell you, that is real, long-term buying. Those are people buying these cloud computing stocks and others that are performing well. They do not want to short them; they are buying them to hold them.
When you see strong leadership in good patterns and under accumulation, then you can feel good about the market's prospects. We have enough leadership right now. It is coming back to rally up in this range. Can we break out? Not with the current amount of leadership. There will have to be more developing, but that is what bases do. A lot of stocks have been basing for the past four months or so. They could be getting closer to the end of their bases and getting ready to make breakouts as the indices approach the top of their four-to-five month trading ranges.
VIX: 21.31; -1.88
VXN: 21.95; -1.98
VXO: 20.24; -2.63
VIX. There are some interesting points to take from the VIX. When the market was selling, VIX never went that high. There was not a lot of fear. Some would read that as complacency and that the market is not going to rally with that. But the way I looked at it and what was successful in July when we were looking at it as well the market sold off in July, but volatility did not spike at all. That told us to get ready for another rally, and we had that. Then it happened again. We had volatility, and it did not spike during the selling; indeed, it held the same range. That was another indication that we would not get a big selloff. Sure enough, that did not happen. We got the rally, and that did gap volatility down on Friday and took it below the recent lows in July and August. Maybe it falls from here. That would not be a bad thing because the market can rally while volatility trades at low levels for an extended period of time. It did it for years in the early 1990's. Just because volatility is down does not mean you automatically have a selloff. You have to line up all the other factors volatility is just one part of the mix.
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.97; +0.07
Bulls versus Bears:
ANOTHER CROSSOVER. A huge spike in bears and a further drop in bulls just as the market bottomed at support. Sure enough stocks jumped higher after that bottom. Perhaps this crossover will generate the momentum for a breakout from the range.
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 29.4% versus 33.3%. Ironic that the sentiment declined further even as the market bottomed at its support. That is how the market works; emotions spike, fear rises, gloom over economic data sets in. Then the market rallies. Well below the 35% considered a bullish indicator. This bolsters the upside run in the range. Bulls and bears are starting to merge again though no crossover yet. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 37.7% versus 31.2%. Huge spike in the number of bears, again just as the market bottomed in its trading range. Jumping above the 35% and the bears as well, another famous crossover that is very bullish. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: +33.74 points (+1.53%) to close at 2233.75
Volume: 1.603B (-3.12%)
Up Volume: 1.481B (+13.569M)
Down Volume: 160.141M (-55.162M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 3.37 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.73 to 1
New Highs: 91 (+33)
New Lows: 22 (-8)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
Stats: +14.41 points (+1.32%) to close at 1104.51
NYSE Volume: 945.554M (-1.51%)
Up Volume: 846.859M (+50.792M)
Down Volume: 82.188M (-77.057M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 3.32 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.49 to 1
New Highs: 333 (+84)
New Lows: 25 (-6)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
Stats: +127.83 points (+1.24%) to close at 10447.93
Volume DJ30: 168M shares Friday versus 150M shares Thursday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
It is a shortened week thanks to the Labor Day holiday. As I alluded to earlier in the week, sometimes the returns from Labor Day can be very painful. August was down sharply. The whole month was to the downside, and September has started to the upside. Can it maintain this move? Sure it can. September is the worst month for stocks, but that does not mean it is always bad. We have seen several Septembers over the past few years that have been quite solid, even when everyone anticipated them to be negative. There has been so much gloom in the market heading into the jobs number and all through the trade the past two weeks it was primed to make a break to the upside, and that is exactly what it did.
There will not be much news out next week. Not at all. Wednesday there is a bit with crude inventories and consumer credit. Thursday is initial claims and the trade balance, and Friday is wholesale inventories. None of those are market movers. The initial claims will be the most important. The market is going to be left up to its own devices for the trade next week. What does that tell us? The SP500 moved through 1100. It is right there, moving up to the July and August peaks. It is just a couple of sessions away. The question is whether it will continue higher right now to get there, or if will it make a pullback. I am looking at a pullback scenario first. It started the move lower. It rallied almost to that level in June, and then it gave a little 1-2-3 pullback and then shot higher.
This coming week, after such a good move and after some short covering into a three-day weekend, I am anticipating a little pullback to start to week. Maybe it continues higher at first out of the gates. It will just be some people who were late to the rally and feel like they are missing it. They are always there. They may pour some money into the stock market to start to week. That may take it up to the 200 day EMA on the SP500 which is at 1116. After that, we may get our 1-2-3 pullback. Then, just as in June, a move up toward that resistance. It could be the June and August peaks, or all the way up to the January peak. We will see which one it gives us, but I think it will make a run at that.
The question is whether we break out. Is the market looking at the economic data and anticipating nice gains in the future, or is it just ready to give it all up? We do not know right now, but I would suggest that we will get the pullback. We will get a rally back up to this prior high and maybe punch through into the January peak. Then we will likely get a pullback. That will be the key pullback. It could pull back and hold the 200 day EMA range, or the June or August peak, and use that as the launch pad to make the break higher. It all depends on what the market is pricing in for the future. It has been basing for a reason. There is, perhaps, some kind of change in the works. Perhaps the market views the economic data and the economic situation as not being so dire. Maybe there will not be the double-dip recession that I felt was coming. Maybe, maybe not. ECRI is showing some positive things, so things could be firming as well. The market has been weighing all of this during the base, and if it rallies up and makes a higher high, it is primed to make a breakout.
That really does not affect us to start next week. If we get a bit of a rally, there are some stocks that we will take some gain on. That will be five days to the upside, so we take some gain and then let it pull back. We will see how much it pulls back, and then get some of those good stocks that gapped away from us on the week. There are still some great stocks that we wanted to get into and just could not, and we will be looking for those. That is our game plan. We may get a bit more upside to start. If we do get it, we will take some gain. If we get a pullback, we will be looking at these good stocks. We will be really watching those that gapped away from us during this week, and then we will move into them as they make the bounce to the upside. After that run, we will worry about what happens if it can break through the January level or up to the top of the January range. We will look for another pullback, and we will also probably take some gain at that point because we will have some great stocks that have put in tremendous moves. We will take some gain and let it pull back, and then we will see if we get the breakout. As it surges back, we do the same thing again. We play great stocks that are pulling back to near support and are ready to move once more.
Have a fantastic Labor Day weekend. Let us appreciate those who work hard in this country and I do not know anyone who does not work hard. As I often say when they talk about rich people as if they are given money: I do not know anyone who is rich who has just been given that money. Everyone I know has worked hard for whatever money they have, and they still work hard for it. If I knew where the line was where I could stand and have wealth handed out to me, believe me, I would be in that long line. But it does not happen. You are working hard for your money, too. That is my little soap box speech. When times are a bit difficult and we have some political uncertainty, just reflect upon the strength of the US and how we have always come through. We see the light, we come back to our roots, and that is what continues to bring America back to greatness when people think we have stagnated. Have a great weekend.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2233.75
A series of interim peaks at 2230ish from the May to August trading range
2236 is the first August gap point.
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
The 200 day SMA at 2272
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows. Key lows.
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2292 is a low from January 2008
2310 is the August 2010 peak
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2341 is the June 2010 peak
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2382-2395 from 2008
2221 is the gap down upside point from June.
The 50 day EMA at 2212
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2184 is the June gap bottom side.
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2155 is the August 2010 low and the March 2008 intraday low
2151 is the Tuesday gap down point
2140 from the May and June 2010 lows
2100 is the February 2010 low
2099 is the recent August intraday low
2061 is the July 2010 low
2024 from November 2009
2020 to 2005 from the Q4 2009 peaks
S&P 500: Closed at 1104.51
1106 is the September 2008 low
1114 is the November 2009 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1116
1119 is the early December intraday high
1129 to 1131 is the June and August 2010 peaks
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008
1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks
The 50 day EMA at 1087
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010. Important level.
1065 is the May flash crash intraday low.
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1039 to 1040 are the May, June, and August 2010 lows
1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation
946 from June 2009
Dow: Closed at 10,447.93
The 200 day SMA at 10,451
10,496 is the November 2009 high
10,594 is the June 2010 peak
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
The 50 day EMA at 10,303
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks are breaking
10,209 is recent August 2010 low
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low
9325 is a late 2008 interim peak
9034 from early 2009 peaks
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
September 08 - Wednesday
Crude Inventories, 09/04 (10:30): 3.42M prior
Consumer Credit, July (15:00): -$5.25B expected, -$1.3B prior
September 09 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 09/04 (08:30): 470K expected, 472K prior
Continuing Claims, 08/28 (08:30): 4445K expected, 4456K prior
Trade Balance, July (08:30): -$47.2B expected, -$49.9B prior
September 10 - Friday
Wholesale Inventories, July (10:00): 0.4% expected, 0.1% prior
August 30 - Monday
Personal Income, July (08:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.0% prior
Personal Spending, July (08:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.0% prior
PCE Prices - Core, July (08:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
August 31 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city Home Price Survey, June (09:00): 4.23% actual versus 3.1% expected, 4.64% prior (revised from 4.61%)
Chicago PMI, August (09:45): 56.7 actual versus 57.0 expected, 62.3 prior
Consumer Confidence, August (10:00): 53.5 actual versus 50.0 expected, 51.0 prior (revised from 50.4)
Minutes of FOMC Meeting, 08/10 (2:00)
September 01 - Wednesday
ADP Employment Change, August (08:15): -10K actual versus 13K expected, 37K prior (revised from 42K)
Construction Spending, July (10:00): -1.0% actual versus -0.7% expected, -0.8% prior (revised from 0.1%)
ISM Index, August (10:00): 56.3 actual versus 52.9 expected, 55.5 prior
Crude Inventories, 08/28 (10:30): 3.42M actual versus 4.11M prior
Auto Sales, August (14:00): 3.9M expected, 3.8M prior
Truck Sales, August (14:00): 5.1M expected, 5.14M prior
September 02 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 08/28 (08:30): 472K actual versus 475K expected, 478K prior (revised from 475K)
Continuing Claims, 08/21 (08:30): 4456K actual versus 4435K expected, 4479K prior (revised from 4456K)
Productivity-Rev., Q2 (08:30): -1.8% actual versus -1.7% expected, -0.9% prior
Unit Labor Costs, Q2 (08:30): 1.1% actual versus 1.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Factory Orders, July (10:00): 0.1% actual versus 0.3% expected, -0.6% prior (revised from -1.2%)
Pending Home Sales, July (10:00): 5.2% actual versus 0.0% expected, -2.8% prior (revised from -2.6%)
September 03 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, August (08:30): -54K versus -120K expected, -54K prior (revised from -131K)
Nonfarm Payrolls - Private, August (08:30): 67K actual versus 44K expected, 107K prior (revised from 71K)
Unemployment Rate, August (08:30): 9.6% actual versus 9.6% expected, 9.5% prior
Hourly Earnings, August (08:30): 0.3% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Average Workweek, August (08:30): 34.2 actual versus 34.2 expected, 34.2 prior
ISM Services, August (10:00): 51.5 actual versus 53.0 expected, 54.3 prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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