- Still in the trading range but with an interesting twist on SP500 and NASDAQ .
- NASDAQ, SP500 tap resistance, show doji at the top of the range.
- CPI flat on the core, leaving one to wonder what the Fed will do at its Tuesday meeting.
- Michigan Sentiment misses expectations and falls to a one year low.
- Leadership has improved, but enough for a breakout?
- The doji may suggest another pullback, but at this stage in the trading range be watching for a higher low at key support as a portent to a range breakout.
We have seen this action before, but this time it is later in the trading range.
It was another day in the trading range for the indices, but it was not an insignificant day. It was expiration Friday so volume was up marginally, but that was not the real story. The story was that both SP500 and NASDAQ bounced up and tested a key resistance level. SP500 bounced up to the 1131 resistance, which is the bottom of its January trading range. Back in December and January, there was a lateral move where the SP500 peaked. Since its selloff that started in April, it has been unable to break above that level again. NASDAQ is showing some of the same action. It has rallied up to its January peak which is roughly matching the August and June peaks. The interesting feature was that both gapped higher, tapped that resistance level, and could not go any further. The NASDAQ showing something of a hangman or hammer doji at that level, while the SP500 is showing something of an evening star doji at that level.
Is that dispositive? Not in and of itself. In the past there have been doji at resistance that did not lead to anything. As you look in August, the last of the lateral move led to the selloff to the bottom of the range. In June there was the big reach higher and a doji that led to the selloff all the way down to the July low. These are symbols that you have to watch at the top and bottom of a range. After the selloff, there is a doji and a bounce, then another doji and a bounce. Coming into the August low, there is one doji, and then back and forth sessions, and then another that led to the move to the upside. The point is that the indices did not break out of their ranges. They did finish positive on the day. The chart shows that they were up across the board NASDAQ 0.5% , SP500 flat, Dow 0.1%, SP600 0.5%, SOX flat, NASDAQ 100 0.4%. The indices were up on the session, but they tapped important resistance and showed a candlestick pattern that suggests they could roll back over. That is not dispositive, but it was interesting enough for us to start some SSO put positions. In other words, looking to play the move down.
It may not do it. There is still plenty of leadership that could break the market to the upside. Industrials had a very good day. Financials were down, but they did not have a terrible day. Technology continues to look solid. They could bounce right up from here. They could test, and then bounce after making a higher low at the 18 day EMA or the 50 day EMA. Or they could roll over and sell all the way to the bottom of the range again. They have not answered the question, but Friday was interesting with this candlestick pattern as noted. Maybe it was just an expiration Friday thing, but it is something that you have to note and be ready for in the event it is signaling a selloff. We have been taking gain off the table over the last several sessions as the indices rallied higher and then started to move laterally at that resistance. That was the game plan. We have banked a lot of gain. We have taken some new positions to the upside as well as the downside as we wait for the market to show us its next move. We are well positioned. If it continues higher, we have great positions in place and more to take. If it turns over, we have already banked a lot of gain and we can quickly get out of other positions and play the downside. We are still in the range. Nothing was decided this week, but it is getting more interesting.
Stocks were ready to start the day to the upside thanks to the ORCL and RIMM earnings released Thursday after the bell. It also got the boost from TXN that increased its dividend as well as its buyback. It is interesting to note that TXN's buyback plans, with this additional buyback announced, is roughly equal to the float of the stock. That tells you that buybacks really are not that meaningful as to whether the company will make the buybacks. It is meaningful as to the perception of the stock. We saw buyback announcements all week that helped boost stocks higher. It is like splits do at times. When they get the announcement, it may not mean a lot in terms of what will happen to the shares themselves, but the perception is a bullish one and it helps stock prices.
This helped offset some less-than-spectacular economic data. The CPI came in with a 0.3% gain, topping the 0.2% expected and matching the 0.3% gain in July. The core, however, was flat versus an anticipated 0.1% gain that would match the July 0.1% gain. Food and energy were to the upside. Michigan Sentiment was a disappointment. It came in at 66.6 for September versus 70 expected. That was expected to rise from 68.9 in August. Lower gasoline prices and better hourly earnings did not do the trick for those in Michigan as it did for the Conference Board's consumer confidence indication released earlier in the week.
Stocks initially started higher, but they rolled over immediately as the session got underway. Indeed, they turned to negative and bounced on the sentiment news. Apparently there were fears it would be worse than it actually was. Stocks recovered to positive, moved laterally into the close and hanging on for that modest gain to end the week. Of course this action on SP500 resulted in a doji on the candlestick chart as it bumped 1131 and was never able to get back to that level on the day. NASDAQ started out at its high as well. It sold off and made a series of higher lows through the remainder of the session, forming something of an ascending triangle. It ran out of time for a breakout, although it looked like it would give us one with an hour and a half in the session. That rolled over and it trailed off with very modest gains.
Dollar. The dollar managed to recover some ground, though it was sharply lower for the week. A quick selloff early in the week, then moving laterally at a support level at the top of the February and March range. It was holding that and trying to put in a higher low for a new bounce (1.3042 Euro versus 1.3078 Thursday). It was a week where the dollar struggled against the Euro and other currencies, even though the Japanese government intervened in its currency market, selling Yen in order to drive the price of the Yen lower. The dollar did not have a good week, but now we will see if it can hold after coming back and testing the support I anticipated it would test.
Bonds. Bonds finished a bit stronger on the session (10 year 2.74% versus 2.76% Thursday), but they were down for the week. We have had a dramatic run higher, a selloff, and an important gap lower on Thursday. Then a modest rally on Friday that did not alter the break of this important support level. I still anticipate bonds to roll over and fall further next week toward the support level marked by the July and August lows (not to mention the May and June peaks).
Gold. Gold had a big week. It appears to be pricing in some inflation, and it had a strong surge early in the week that it maintained through the end of the week. It was not a strong push to close out the action, however. A doji on Friday, but it was still to the upside ($1,278, +4.20). Still an all-time high for the yellow metal, and that indicates inflation anticipated despite an unchanged reading in the core CPI for August. Gold is anticipating inflation. It doesn't rise with inflation; just as any market, it anticipates what is coming and moves in advance. Even though the US inflation indicators are minimal and many fear deflation, with all of the money printing, there could be a quick spike in inflation.
Oil. The world cannot work without oil, but it was having a hard week. Are world economies recovering? Maybe, maybe not. In Ireland there was a big worry on Friday as its credit default swaps hit all-time highs in pricing. That means the prices are soaring for insuring the debt in Ireland. They exploded higher in the US and generally around the world in September of 2008 as the financial/credit crisis expanded. Credit default swap premiums jumped over thousands of percent in just a matter of days, indicating the rapidly accelerating fears with respect to defaults by sovereign entities (and many of the larger financial institutions). Ireland is showing record default swaps now, and this is after the 2008 crisis. Something does not smell right in the EU. I had said that something was wrong, and it was probably something in Europe that would result most likely in some form of sovereign debt default from one of the PIIGS. It looks like Ireland is the poster child for that, although it could come from any of the PIIGS. In any event, oil is sniffing that way as well. It finished lower once more ($73.66, -0.84).
Volume. Volume ramped up 35% to 0.3B on NASDAQ, and that was thanks to expiration Friday no doubt. Volume also increased on the NYSE, exploding higher to 1.8B shares, up over 100%. Again, that is thanks to expiration Friday. There were few fireworks during the week, so they all showed up on Friday. Since it was quadruple witching expiration, the added volume is understandable.
Breadth. Breadth was a 1.4:1 NASDAQ and 1.4:1 on the NYSE. Given that the indices are basically flat, you can say that was a positive and things were better. Indeed, the SP600 posted a gain versus losses -- relatively stronger than the other indices, for that matter -- and that helped push that breadth higher. It really does not tell us anything given the other indications in the market.
SP500. It tapped at 1131, which is the bottom of the January peak range. That is a kind of consolidation peak. There is a broad top, and the SP500 is back at the bottom of this level. The significance is that it stopped it in June, and it stopped it again in August. Now it is back at that level, tapping at it on Friday and showing a candlestick doji. This is where volatility has bottomed when the market has peaked. It is in prime position to roll over, but don't anticipate that it will happen. I think is there a good probability it could happen, but it is not definite because there are some good leaders out there.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ is the same situation. It gapped to the upside and rallied up to the top of the January peak. It stalled there, and it is showing a hammer doji -- a gap to a doji at resistance. Still in the overall bearish pattern, but in a trading range. There is a possibility it could fall back from here as well. It gapped higher to resistance, and volume spiked. Maybe that volume was related only to expiration, but it was helped by others -- ORCL and RIMM had big volume on the session. It was positive volume, but it nonetheless touched resistance and volume spiked. Just as you watch for volume to rise when an index touches a support level and recovers, when you see the same thing on the top of a range, that indicates sellers are stepping in to sell a market off. The doji and the higher volume coupled with the resistance is waving a caution flag in our faces. We will have to see how it plays out.
SP600. SP600 had a better day, up 0.5%. It is still holding at the 200 day EMA, mid-range in its trading range. It is trying to establish a shelf to bounce higher. Unlike the other indices, it is in decent shape because it is not bumping its head against resistance and looking as if it will roll over. Instead it is moving laterally and consolidating, and that is a silver lining for the rest of the market, i.e., SP500 and NASDAQ, as they may come back to test a bit. That would be just about time the SP600 is ready to move back to the upside.
SOX. The semiconductors had a much better week. They rallied nicely all week. There was the inverted head and shoulders, trying to break higher, but they have banged into the bottom of the May-August range and stalled. It does not mean they are out for the count, but that is something to consider with the other indices at resistance. Are the semiconductors going to change their stripes and rally hard from here, or are they just going to stall out and fade? Of course a lot depends on what the SP500 and NASDAQ do. This is still not told us the answer, although it got interesting with the gaps to resistance showing doji on rising volume.
Financial. Financials were down on the session. JPM dropped down to the 10 day EMA on a big volume spike. It was expiration, so I do not want to read too much into it, but it was a pretty hard plop down after moving up to the late July peak, matching it at the 200 day EMA and then falling back down. It will be important to see how it and other financials perform early next week after that drop. MS was down as well on rising volume, although it is still above a support point. It also banged into the early August peak and the 200 day EMA and rolled back down this week. Not all are showing that same action. WFC is moving laterally after hitting the 50 day EMA. Of course it didn't rise up to the prior highs. It was not as strong as the others. You can say a stock that is not as strong does not look as bad, but that is like saying a pig is cute just because it is not as ugly as a rat. If the financials continue to fall, that will be an impetus for SP500 to fall back from its doji at resistance.
Industrial. The industrials performed very well on the day, rising on big volume. CAT broke out of its series of higher lows to a new rally high, and it did so on strong volume. DE did the same thing. Strong volume breakout and nice surge. CMI did not quite have as strong a move, so I held off given the doji on the SP500. Nonetheless, they are clear leaders that are moving higher. They go into the plus category for a continued rally.
Technology. AAPL could not keep that move up. It gapped to the upside and rolled over a bit on Friday. Nothing serious as far as any impending selloff -- it was just a huge move on Thursday, and it was a little backfilling on Friday. ORCL gapped higher and rallied. It would be one to watch after this breakaway gap. It cleared resistance on the gap, and now you look for a lateral move for a few days. When it starts to break upside, you move in. Obviously we will have ORCL on the watch list and ready for that move.
RIMM gapped higher and rolled over. Is it at a bottom? It is hard to say that would be the case right now. It is continuing lower in a trend lower. It did undercut this prior low, and it is interesting because even though the price is at a lower low than it was in July, MACD is making a higher low. There is a divergent bottom there. This would be a false breakdown from RIMM. You would look for a buy as it moved through this low and was able to hold. It was unable to do that on Friday, but we will see if it holds at the 10 day EMA or above the 18 day EMA as it did on Friday and can reverse back to the upside. That is a chance to play the stock. You also have to watch out -- there was a strong selloff, a bounce, a higher low, and a higher high. Now if it breaks lower, you have a downside ABCD pattern. Not much room to the A point, so you may not want to make that play. You would not get good enough return. Instead I would be watching to see if it reverses off of the 10 or 18 day EMA to the upside. You would play a reversal up to perhaps this gap point from June or the July/August peak.
ADTN is another tech that has been performing well. It started to bounce higher on some volume Friday. It once more looks like it is ready to break higher. We could have picked up more positions but decided to wait until Monday given the action on NASDAQ and SP500. Others are still setting up. RAX pulled back a bit more, holding right at the prior peak. Volume jumped up as it held that level. That shows some buyers stepping in even though it was down on the session. There are some positives continuing in the tech sector.
Metals. FCX gapped higher early in the week and moved laterally to finish. Still in solid shape. No issues with copper. MTL had some good news out on the day, but it was not able to make hay of it. It closed at the 18 day EMA, but had a nice pullback holding over prior peaks and something of a cup with handle. It could be ready to make a solid break higher.
Retail. EAT gapped lower and sold off on high volume. Not a total breakdown, but I did not like the look of it at all. BWLD sold again after a tough Thursday. It gapped higher but could not hold it, and it closed a bit lower. DRI sold back to the 10 day EMA on stronger volume, but it is holding there. No issues. It could continue to bounce to the upside.
There are some areas that are showing leadership, and others are coming around. There are not big blocks of stocks in sectors that are showing great leadership and ready to move in and power the market higher. That is what keeps me somewhat skeptical that the market will be able to break out of this trading range. It could do it. It could break out with what leadership there is, and then the others could build into the role over the next several weeks. That has been known to happen. There is not a swell of stocks moving to the upside that gives me confidence that there will be a breakout. Maybe the semiconductors continue to improve and help drive the action. That would help, no doubt. If the financials trim their losses from the end of the week and reverse and start to rally again, they would add to the impetus for the breakout as well.
There are enough stocks to make the breakout if they start performing again after this pullback. It is normal to run up to resistance and move laterally, set up a shelf, and then try to make the breakout. There is the issue with the test of resistance, a doji, and a fade back from there. In the past, that has been the problem for the stocks in the trading range. They have turned right back down and sold. We are later in the trading range now, and maybe it will not be an issue. Maybe it has run its course, has done all of the consolidating and factoring into the future it needs to, and it is ready to move. It will have to show it, that's for sure. We are back to the Missouri state: Show me.
VIX. For the past two weeks, the VIX has been holding at levels it hit back in August. What happened in August? SP500 was at the top of its trading range. Then fast forward a few weeks into late August. The VIX was down here as SP500 was at the top of the range. Now fast forward to today. It is back at the levels from late July and early August that saw SP500 at a peak. We have volatility at that same level. Take another look at SP500. Volatility is down and SP500 is up. SP500 is showing doji on the candlestick chart. That is an interesting development. Will it fall down? It is not necessarily the case. It is not written in stone, but it is quite interesting and worth taking some downside positions on the SSO.
VIX: 22.01; +0.29
VXN: 22.26; +0.45
VXO: 20.7; -0.26
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.89; +0.07
Bulls versus Bears:
The CROSSOVER from the prior week reverted, but the bulls and bears are still close together. That crossover is a bullish indicator, and the market has rallied off of it. Question is, did it generate the momentum for a range breakout?
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 36.7% versus 33.3%. Another sizeable jump from 29.4% the week before. Back above the 35% threshold, below which is considered a bullish indicator. This dulls some of the recent upside, bullish bias. The high on the last leg was 56.0% after starting at 35.6% on the low in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009 . . . until this last leg. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 31.1%. A modest slip from 32.2% versus the big drop from 37.7% the week before that. Back below the 35% level, above which is considered bullish. Hit 18.7% on the low in April. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on the prior run at 47.2%. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: +12.36 points (+0.54%) to close at 2315.61
Volume: 2.359B (+35.19%)
Up Volume: 1.422B (+448.009M)
Down Volume: 1.148B (+315.218M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.37 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.67 to 1
New Highs: 105 (+29)
New Lows: 45 (+16)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
Stats: +0.93 points (+0.08%) to close at 1125.59
NYSE Volume: 1.857B (+105.16%)
Up Volume: 804.445M (+387.278M)
Down Volume: 1.028B (+553.441M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.44 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.39 to 1
New Highs: 313 (+81)
New Lows: 16 (+3)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
Stats: +13.02 points (+0.12%) to close at 10607.85
Volume DJ30: 367M shares Friday versus 170.3M shares Thursday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
Monday is still going to be a "show me state" day, no doubt about that. There is a lot of economic data coming out. There is the NAHB housing report on Monday. There are housing starts for August on Tuesday, and the FOMC makes a rate decision. Some say it may go to quantitative easing part deux, given that the inflation readings remain low and the economy remains weak. Initial jobless claims come out on Thursday, as well as existing home sales. Leading economic indicators, durable goods, and new homes end the week. There is plenty of economic activity no doubt, but it is not earth moving. Homes will be important because it is the largest investment most people have. The jobless claims will be the headliners.
That does not tell us a whole lot. They will impact the market near term, but the market looks several months down the road in making decisions about where it will go over the next several weeks versus just the next day. There is a doji on Friday at resistance. That is an interesting point, and we took some puts on the SSO. We may take some puts on other areas or make other downside plays. The indices are still in their trading range and have not made a decision. They are showing indications that led to breaks lower in the past. We are just playing decent probabilities with the downside plays because we have a clear point for the stop/loss and a very good risk/reward.
We are still at an inflection point. We still do not have an answer. There are some tantalizing pieces of information based on the action from Friday (really the entire week), but it is inconclusive because it was expiration Friday. I sure like the look of the high volume and the doji at resistance indicating the sellers piling in. You have to mitigate that somewhat with the expiration Friday volume ramp up.
Moving into next week, we will look into some downside positions and be ready for that. If the market breaks lower, we will also be ready to close out some upside. Maybe it will just test back to a support range. If so, we still want to lock in gain before then. If it tests at a lower level and holds, we can always make the move in as it breaks back to the upside. It would be making a higher low at an important support level, such as the 50 day EMA, inside a trading range. That often presages the breakout of the range. If that happens, then we start looking to the upside and button down the downside.
That is the nature of a trading range. You have to be ready to recognize the issues that can confront you as it trades back and forth. It is not automatic, particularly when there are this many rotations under the belt inside the range. This is when you start looking for change, not status quo. We also have financials performing better, industrials breaking to new highs, semiconductors trying to improve, and techs coming to life late in the week. Those are other reasons to beware of a test lower that may hold a key support level. If it does, we then look for a renewed attempt at a breakout. With a higher low at the 50 day EMA, I would anticipate a breakout.
For now, I do not anticipate that early in the week. We just have to let it develop, and we will continue to do what we have done. If gain is presented and the indices cannot make the breakout, we will take gain off the table. If we see good potential moves to the upside and the market is not breaking down, we can pick up some positions in those. If we see the rollover, however, we will protect our upside positions and the gain we have in them. We will play the downside, being weary of a possible higher low at a key support level that could trigger a breakout. Have a great weekend.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2315.61
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2341 is the June 2010 peak
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2382-2395 from 2008
2310 is the August 2010 peak
2292 is a low from January 2008
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows. Key lows.
The 200 day SMA at 2276
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
2236 is the first August gap point.
A series of interim peaks at 2230ish from the May to August trading range
The 50 day EMA at 2230
2221 is the gap down upside point from June.
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2184 is the June gap bottom side.
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2155 is the August 2010 low and the March 2008 intraday low
2151 is the Tuesday gap down point
2140 from the May and June 2010 lows
2100 is the February 2010 low
2099 is the recent August intraday low
2061 is the July 2010 low
2024 from November 2009
2020 to 2005 from the Q4 2009 peaks
S&P 500: Closed at 1125.59
1129 to 1131 is the June and August 2010 peaks
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008
1119 is the early December intraday high
The 200 day SMA at 1116
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1106 is the September 2008 low
1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks
The 50 day EMA at 1095
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010. Important level.
1065 is the May flash crash intraday low.
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1039 to 1040 are the May, June, and August 2010 lows
1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation
946 from June 2009
Dow: Closed at 10,607.85
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak
10,594 is the June 2010 peak
10,496 is the November 2009 high
The 200 day SMA at 10,456
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
The 50 day EMA at 10,364
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks are breaking
10,209 is recent August 2010 low
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low
9325 is a late 2008 interim peak
9034 from early 2009 peaks
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
September 20 - Monday
NAHB Market Index, September (10:00): 14 expected, 13 prior
September 21 - Tuesday
Housing Starts, August (08:30): 550K expected, 546K prior
Building Permits, August (08:30): 560K expected, 559K prior
FOMC Rate Decision, 9/21 (14:15): 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior
September 22 - Wednesday
Crude Inventories, 09/18 (10:30): -2.49M prior
September 23 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 09/18 (08:30): 450K expected, 450K prior
Continuing Claims, 09/11 (08:30): 4450K expected, 4485K prior
Existing Home Sales, August (10:00): 4.04M expected, 3.83M prior
Leading Indicators, August (10:00): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
September 24 - Friday
Durable Orders, August (08:30): -1.3% expected, 0.4% prior
Durable Orders -ex T, August (08:30): 0.7% expected, -3.7% prior
New Home Sales, August (10:00): 290K expected, 276K prior
September 13 - Monday
Treasury Budget, August (14:00): -$90.5B actual versus -$95.0B expected, -$103.6B prior
September 14 - Tuesday
Retail Sales, August (08:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior (revised from 0.4%)
Retail Sales ex-auto, August (08:30): 0.6% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.1% prior (revised from 0.2%)
Business Inventories, July (10:00): 1.0% actual versus 0.7% expected, 0.5% prior (revised from 0.3%)
September 15 - Wednesday
NY Fed - Empire PMI, September (08:30): 4.10 actual versus 6.4 expected, 7.1 prior
Export Prices ex-ag., August (08:30): 0.5% actual versus -0.2% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, August (08:30): 0.3% actual versus -0.2% prior (revised from -0.3%)
Industrial Production, August (09:15): 0.2% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.6% prior (revised from 1.0%)
Capacity Utilization, August (09:15): 74.7% actual versus 75.0% expected, 74.6% prior (revised from 74.8%)
Crude Inventories, 09/11 (10:30): -2.49M actual versus -1.85M prior
September 16 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 09/11 (08:30): 450K actual versus 460K expected, 453K prior (revised from 451K)
Continuing Claims, 09/4 (08:30): 4485K actual versus 4450K expected, 4569K prior (revised from 4478K)
PPI, August (08:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.2% prior
Core PPI, August (08:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior
Current Account, Q2 (08:30): -$123.3B actual versus -$125.0 expected, -$109.2B prior (revised from -$109.0B)
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, June (09:00): $61.2B actual versus $44.4B prior
Philadelphia Fed, September (10:00): -0.7 actual versus 2.0 expected, -7.7 prior
September 17 - Friday
CPI, August (08:30): 0.3% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Core CPI, August (08:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Michigan Sentiment, September (09:55): 66.6 actual versus 70.0 expected, 68.9 prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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