- Jobs report lousy, market sells, BUT . . . once again it recovers.
- No breakout over the resistance the past week, but resilience remained the theme.
- July jobs miss, June revised lower, and even the steady unemployment rate is no good news.
- ECRI shows there is some life left in the economy.
- The challenge in the coming week is still the January/June highs.
Another slap in investors' faces, but jobs report does not turn over the rally.
The jobs news for July was not that great on Friday. It was not that great for June either. Instead of the -87K loss expected, there were -131K jobs lost last month. In June it was revised lower to -221K from an initially reported -125K job decline. At least the unemployment rate stayed the same at 9.5% versus the expected tick higher to 9.6%, but it was because more people left the jobs pool. It actually means things are worse because more people gave up trying to find work.
The market did not like that news and indeed started down lower. Futures were knocked down, and the market gapped to the downside yet again. It tried to rally almost immediately back on the open, but turned around and sold to a new low midday. Seems like the buyers that came in on the bad news were not strong enough. Definitely the news was not good enough to drive stocks higher, but the market did continue its theme; after selling off early in the morning there was a steady rise into the close. The market came back. NASDAQ -0.2%, Dow -0.2%, SP500 -0.4%, SOX -0.2%, SP600 -0.7%, and NASDAQ 100 -0.1%. Quite an impressive comeback then again, we have had impressive comebacks all week. On Thursday there was a sharp selloff on the open and a recovery into the close. On Wednesday there was a sharp selloff to mid-session and then a recovery into the close. The market shall overcome, and that is what it has been doing this week and for most of the rally. There have been many sessions where the market has reached lower only to reverse. That is a good sign, but it does not mean it is free and clear.
The last three sessions we have not seen great news. There were problems with the weekly jobless claims on Thursday being worse an anticipated. Same store sales were down and not looking great. Of course the unemployment report did not do much good for anybody. Indeed this entire move has overcome rather crappy economic data, and the salvation has been earnings. The earnings season was better than expected; a lot of companies beat and a lot of companies raised guidance. That propelled the market higher and kept the market moving higher through the entire season. Typically the market gets halfway through and then it rolls over and goes back down. If it has been selling off into the numbers, it turns around and rallies back up. The market had sold down into earnings season, so it had a nice rally all the way through July and into early August. Thus, while there has been some good news and some bad news (economically speaking), the market has picked its way through the mine field and rallied up to that January and July peak range. It did not quite make it there, but it came really close. NASDAQ and SP500 could have spit on it, but they did not quite get there. That will be the test for the market next week and beyond. That is still there regardless of what the market did on Friday unless it had broken it. Obviously it did not break those levels Friday, so it will still have to deal with them.
The Friday action was not bad, and you could even view it as constructive. The market sold off sharply. The SP500 undercut the 200 day EMA, but reversed and regained almost all of its losses. NASDAQ saw the same thing. It was down below the 200 day EMA, tapped the 50 day EMA, reversed, and almost made it to positive. That is repeated across the market. It was a nice recovery when there was really no reason to recover. The economic news was terrible and earnings are almost over, so why would the market cover? It is the technical move right now. The resilience is still there, and it is a good thing to see for the upside even after a weak jobs report on Friday. There was no reason for the market to try to move back up. It had resistance ahead, the numbers were not great, but it did nonetheless. That is showing the same resilience for whatever reason it is there. It could be earnings. Companies have cash, and people think they have to spend it and hire people eventually. They do not have to do anything, but we will see.
I know it rhymes with dope, but there is hope out there that the economy will improve because the market is trying to rally even in the face of weak economic data. The proof will be next week and the weeks ahead when the indices take on the January and June peaks once more. They made a good show of coming back on Friday. That shows there are still buyers there and it was a constructive move. We will see if it was constructive enough to make the breakout.
Dollar. The dollar had looked ready to bounce. It was down at key support at the 200 day EMA and the trading range from February to March even into April. The weak economic data gave no one reason to buy dollars. Indeed it gave reason to sell, and it closed lower. It broke below the 200 day EMA on the close, bounced a little off to have lows, but not enough to make a difference on the day (1.3296 Euros versus 1.3184 Thursday). It appears there is no reason to buy dollars right now, and we will have to see it come to the bottom of this range to see where it will find its support.
Bonds. With the economy looking weak, bonds looked strong. There was a gap higher. That has been a seesaw battle actually a seasick battle as it gapped daily back and forth. Friday the gap was to the upside because of the weak economic data (10 year US treasury 2.82% versus 2.90% Thursday). The 2 year broke 0.5% for the first time the history. It did manage to close at 0.51%, so thank goodness we can all sleep easily tonight. You see the issue. The problems with the economy are driving US investors into US Treasuries. It is not driving any of the foreign buyers there, however. The perception is that Europe is doing a lot better, so all the Euro that flew into US Treasuries have left. Now it is good old' Americans buying US debt out of fear that equities will not be able to sustain that move to the upside.
Gold. Gold had another upside day. Bad news had everyone worried so they ran to gold. It closed through the 50 day EMA after attempting to do so the prior two sessions. Gold is making a steady climb. It still looks very toppy. Once again it is coming up to the all-important resistance level from the 2009 peak. Indeed it tapped at that level Friday and faded back. I still think gold will head back down, but for now it has having its oversold bounce.
Oil. Oil had a great week and was a bit overdone, so it had to pull back. There was some profit taking at the end of the week, and the jobs report gave a good excuse to dump some oil on fear that a weaker economy will demand less oil ($80.96, -1.05). It bounced off the 10 day EMA. A rather normal pullback from the oil market.
Volume. Volume was up 10% to 1.9B on the NASDAQ, and up 8% to 948M shares on the NYSE. Still very low trade, although it did eke higher to end the week. The volatility back and forth drove the volume a bit to the upside.
Breadth. Breadth did not tell us much. It was -1.4:1 on NASDAQ, and that matches exactly what happened with the market. The -1.2:1 on the NYSE again matched what happened in the market. It is not telling us anything that would amount to a hill of beans (as my father would say).
SP500. The SP500 tested down to the 18 day EMA on the low. It was quite the large range on the session with a low at 1107 and the high of 1123. That is significant for an intraday move for the SP500, and it did reverse to close back above the 200 day EMA. We still have the string of higher highs and higher lows in place, and it could slide back just a bit. The 18 day EMA is a very logical place for it to test (as it did on the low Friday) and then resume the move. What is the move? THE move is through the June peak at 1131 or even up to the January peak at 1151 (indeed, that is where it needs to go). That is a good 20 point range, and it is still 10 points away from the bottom of that range on the Friday close. It can go another 30 points from here and be looking very good. We will have to see, and this is the next important move. It is trying to set up and hold its gain, and it looks as if it wants to make the break to the upside. Bad news certainly did not deter it on Friday or any other day last week.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ is very similar. It tapped the 50 day EMA on the low and rallied back to close easily above the 200 day EMA. It also is dealing with its January peak and its June intraday high. It is taking aim at them with this pullback. We have seen this on other individual chart patterns: The flag, the break higher, and then another flag immediately thrown after that. It is okay if it holds at this 50 day EMA and can make the break higher. We will have to see what investors do. At this point we have taken nice gain off of the table, and we still have great positions in place if the market makes a break to the upside. If it does not, we can take them off because we have reduced our exposure with them. We can take the rest of the gain off the table and close the upside positions in trouble that we do not have gain built into. We are in a great position for an attempt of a breakout over the resistance. I am more than willing to let my positions ride as it makes that attempt. I will actually look at other positions to the upside; if it makes the breakout, we want to be in the game again. We will buy to add to our current positions and add to our brokerage account as stocks continue higher.
SP600. The SP600 was the laggard on the day down 0.7% but there was no damage done. It also gapped lower but then recovered off the 200 day EMA to close just over the 50 day EMA. There was a step down here, no real problem. If you want to really get interested in this, you can see a short ABCD pattern is set up. That is cool, but the target in an ABCD pattern is the height (the "A"). Here the "A" was at resistance back at the June peak, back at the gap points in May, and the March lateral consolidation. Even if it rallies from here, all you can expect for it is to get back to resistance. Again, with the SP600 as with the other large cap indices, we have to see how it handles that resistance. Nothing was answered with respect to breaking that resistance, but there were answers with respect the how resilient the market was. It was still maintaining its upside in the face of negative news.
SOX. The semiconductors held the 200 day EMA again. Still trying to make that higher low in the model of its range. We will see if it can make the break to the upside and actually clear the top of the range marked by the January peak. Chips lagged last week. They were laggards all week long, and now they are trying to find their footing. We will see if they can bounce back up and help the rest of the market to the upside.
Financial. JPM fell back from the 200 day EMA. It was not ready to make the break through. GS edged back modestly. It is still in excellent shape as it continues its uptrend off of the July low.
Industrial. Industrials maintained their strength as well. CAT the back just a bit. It gave up some of the gain, but it was really strong although it is at its April peak. That is something to watch in case it runs out of gas and needs a bit more of a test. It has been basically straight up off of the June low, so we will have to watch out. It may come back and test. If there is a test, I have no real issues; we have taken some great gain off the table. If it tests back and holds support, I am looking somewhere around the mid-June peak, and this consolidation in July. It would be a great time to look at new positions for that stock. CMI is moving laterally after breaking out and trying to set up for the next move to the upside. DE is still moving higher, even posting a gain on Friday when most stocks were lower. Nothing runs like a deer.
Technology. AAPL is still trying to make the higher low above the 50 day EMA. It is smack in the middle of its lateral consolidation that started in April. It could make the breakout. If it does, I would be willing to look at new positions on AAPL. Speaking of positions, we saw GOOG set up the inverted head and shoulders and then break higher on Wednesday. Now it is testing. If it comes back and makes the test, it will set up a buying opportunity. EMC had a tough Friday, selling on high volume, but it is coming back to the April peak to test. If it can test and hold, that is very good.
Metals. FCX tried to break through the 200 day EMA and failed on the session. It was not the time, but I would not be surprised if it made that move next week. AKS looks like it is setting up to move higher. If you do not have positions, you might want to get some. STLD looks like it is trying to set up for a break higher to rally up and form the right side of its cup base. Near 1850 is the peak. It is near 15 right now. That gives you a good 20% move to the upside, just in stock positions, if it rallies up to the prior peak and completes the cup. That is not the too bad at all. SCHN looks like it is trying to make a break through something of a flag pattern. Volume was up, and it broke through the 200 day EMA.
Retail. PCLN had a great week, of course. Earnings were outstanding and it blasted off. There was the breakaway gap, and it continued higher. Now we look for it to test the breakaway gap, and then we will play new positions. The ultra aggressive could try to play the downside here. It has moved up tremendously the extension on the Fibonacci is tremendous, and it will pull back. You may see a doji Monday, and then you could play off that to the downside to come down and test the gap point. It gapped up to 272, and it is at 295 now. You have some room to play to the downside there if you are nimble and want to make that play. It is possible, but I will also look for it to come back, consolidate, set up the next break higher, and then play it again, Sam.
NFLX has come back from the dead, exploding higher on Friday after clawing its way back into its resistance range. It just put it to bed on Friday. ANF is over the 200 day EMA and moving laterally. It is trying to set up for the next break higher. M is still trying to put in a higher low and break to the upside over the 200 day EMA. BWLD had a great run off of the June and early July low. Now it is testing and coming back to the 18 day EMA. It fell back from the 200 day EMA and the gap point, but that is what you would expect. Long rally, made it to resistance a double layer at that and it is testing back. Now it will try to make the break through. It is around 4200. If it breaks through the 200 day EMA at 4257, then you have a run up to the gap point at 51. You have a decent rally that you could take advantage of and make some good coin on a break back through resistance.
There are still some interesting ideas in leadership, and stocks held their gains (as did the indices). That is a positive for the upside moving into next week, even though the indices still have to deal with their resistance from January and June.
TO VIEW THE ECONOMY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Jobs report a clinker. The positives are offset by the negatives.
Consumer Credit declines yet again, but it is slowing its drop.
Bonds are rally, gold is running because the Fed may be forced to print more money, buying treasuries.
ECRI leading indicators show a tick up: Not all is bad.
VIX. The VIX fell 0.3% on the session. It broke below the 200 day EMA over a week ago. It tried to rebound on that sharp selling one day, but now it is back down. People are worried. They say there is nothing but trouble ahead because it is breaking below these twin lows and is also breaking below these twin peaks. The VIX does not work that way, however. It can go down and make the lower lows while the market can continue higher for quite some time. It has done it for years on end at other times. If it falls back to the April levels, we may have an issue, but there is still quite a ways to go. Notice that it can slow down as it falls. It can continue with very small, tight days and tight ranges and not cover much ground. That means the market can go up for quite some time. I am not saying that is what will happen, but the VIX is not indicating anything adverse will happen to the rally.
VIX: 21.74; -0.36
VXN: 22.84; -0.43
VXO: 20.62; -0.73
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.92; -0.03
Bulls versus Bears:
Back to more bulls than bears, the 'normal' state of affairs for the market. This after a crossover and then a tie. A rare crossover a month back and it was, as s typical, a bullish scenario.
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 38.9%. Bulls edged higher on the week, up from 38.2% after a snappy rise from 35.6%. No more crossover, but that appears to have done the trick for at least the rally we are in now. Down from 56.0% on this leg's high. This move started at a low of 35.6% in February, the lowest it has been since July 2009. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. After peaking at 53 on this move the bulls lost some nerve, falling to a new low post- July 2009. Once again bulls peaked out near the 50% level. Bulls have bumped at 50ish since late August 2009, falling to 45ish and then rebounding. Hit a high of 47.7% mid-June on the run from the March lows. Again, to be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 33.3%. Steep drop from 34.9% after nudging over from 35.6% the prior week. Fell to 18.7% on the low. Hit a high of 27.8% level on the prior leg in February. Over 35% is considered bullish for the market; definitely at the lower end of the scale. Peaked near 28% in November, falling short of the 35.6% hit in July 2009. For reference, cracking above the 35% threshold considered bullish. Hit a high on this run at 47.2%. For reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: -4.59 points (-0.2%) to close at 2288.47
Volume: 1.919B (+9.31%)
Up Volume: 822.994M (+205.11M)
Down Volume: 1.001B (-101.97M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.44 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.98 to 1
New Highs: 42 (-13)
New Lows: 50 (+20)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
Stats: -4.17 points (-0.37%) to close at 1121.64
NYSE Volume: 948.776M (+8.38%)
Up Volume: 323.307M (-37.801M)
Down Volume: 609.783M (+101.722M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.18 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.35 to 1
New Highs: 302 (-18)
New Lows: 71 (+12)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
Stats: -21.42 points (-0.2%) to close at 10653.56
Volume DJ30: 155M shares Friday versus 139M shares Thursday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
The Friday jobs report was not the end-all of the economic data we will have to deal with. We start right off the bat Tuesday having to deal with productivity and unit labor costs, and then we have the FOMC rate decision that afternoon. It likely will not be any kind of decision, although it will be interesting to see what kind of dissent there was about keeping rates this low. As you know, some members want to start raising them even with the problems in the economy. You do not want deflation, and you do not want inflation the Fed does not have a lot of choices at this point. It has to keep printing money for now because the federal government wants to keep spending it. But that is another story.
Later in the week comes the usual initial jobless claims, and then at the end of the week there is the CPI, retail sales, and Michigan Sentiment. Kind of back-end loaded, but it is important. We do not have as many earnings out now. In August you still see earnings come out well through mid month it is no longer a one-month season anymore. It is pretty much around the clock, but it does have its ebb and flow. Right now, we have the gist of the data and are heading toward the end of the period, though there are still some important earnings coming out. Given where the indices are, you would think they would need some different news to push them. They have seen the bulk of the earnings reports, seen the big economic data, and the market has not sold off. Typically after earnings season, or midway through, the market will get tired and try to sell off. It did not do it this time. It tried to sell off Friday when the jobs report was less than expected. It managed a rebound and continued the theme of resilience and holding the gains.
It has done that thus far, but there is still that important resistance level from the January and June peaks that it has to deal with. The action on Friday suggests to wants to do that. It suggests the indices want to hold in this general range where they have moved laterally the last four sessions and make a renewed break to the upside to take out that resistance. I would be all for that, and we will see what happens. If it does try to make that move, I still see many stocks in position that have pulled back over the past few days. After all, the market moved laterally and pulled back some. These stocks that have led the move or made new breakouts have pulled back to test as well. We can use those pullbacks to move in and pick up some more positions. If we will get the breakout, that is exactly what we want to do. We want to move in with upside plays and play a further rally. We may pick up additional positions on stocks we already own interest in. No problem with that. If they are coming back to a logical buy point and everything still looks good, we will pick up some more in a proven winner versus going out on a limb with a newbie that may not treat you the same way.
We may see a great stock set up that was missed because it gapped away from us or for other reasons (I do not want to say I was asleep at the wheel or one of the traders here did not pick up on it). For whatever reason a buy may have been missed, a little pullback gives new buying opportunity. Remember to never give up on a gap. Never give up on a good stock in position just because it moves away from you. You typically get a second chance to come in and pick up your position. We will look for those as well.
At the same time, we need a few downside plays in our pocket just in case the January and June peaks hold and force the market back down. The sellers could jump back on, push the indices down, and try to get them down into the range of the May or June lows. If that happens, it happens. This market is still basing and trying to move through the pullback and set up a stronger run higher. It has to anticipate that the economy will move higher. Frankly, the economic data does not give one that impression. It makes me wonder what the market is moving on. Is it anticipating a November turnover in the House and Senate? That could very well be what it is building in. If that is true, it may be counting its chickens a bit early, but we will have to see. We will always play what the market tells us versus our conjecture about why it is doing something or what will cause it to do something else.
We will look for upside and be ready with some downside as well. The market is showing great resilience, but it still has to handle those resistance points and has not taken them out yet. Next week we will see what happens with that resistance, and we will take whatever the market gives. We will take our plays the direction it wants us to go. Have a great weekend.
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2288.47
2292 is a low from January 2008
2319 from the September 2008 peak
2320 to 2326.28 is the January 2010 high
2341 is the June 2010 peak
2324-2370 is a range of resistance from early 2008
2382-2395 from 2008
2273 to 2282 marks bottom of January 2010 lateral peak
2275 - 2278 from the February 2008 and April 2008 lows
The 200 day SMA at 2266
The 50 day EMA at 2255
2245 from July 2008 through 2260 from late 2005.
2221 is the gap down upside point from June.
2205 is the November 2009 peak 2210 (from September 2008) to 2212 (the July 2009 closing low)
2185 to 2195 represent support points for years: December 2004 peak, July to October 2005 consolidation, January, March and July 2008 lows, and October 2009 peak.
2184 is the June gap bottom side.
2177 is a low from March 2008
2169 is the March 2008 closing low (double bottom)
2168 is the September 2009, intraday peak
2167 from the July 2008 intraday low
2155 is the March 2008 intraday low
2100 is the February 2010 low
2024 from November 2009
2020 to 2005 from the Q4 2009 peaks
S&P 500: Closed at 1121.64
1131 is the June 2010 peak
Bottom of the January 2010 consolidation 1131 to 1136
1133 from a September 2008 intraday low
1151 is the January 2010 peak
1156 is the Sept 2008 low
1170 is the prior March 2010 high
1174 is the May 2010 high
1181 is the April selloff low
1185 from late September 2008
1119 is the early December intraday high
The 200 day SMA at 1115
1114 is the November 2009 peak
1106 is the September 2008 low
1101 is the October 2009 high and the recent May and June 2010 interim peaks
The 50 day EMA at 1099
1084 to 1080 (September 2009 peak)
1078 is the October range low
1070 is the late September 2009 peak as well as several other peaks and valleys even in 2010
1044 is the October 2008 intraday high AND the February 2010 low
1040 is the May 2010 low
1020 is the bottom of the late summer 2009 consolidation
946 from June 2009
Dow: Closed at 10,653.56
10,730 is the January 2010 peak
10,920 is the recent May high
10,963 is the July 2008 low
11,100 from the 7-08 low
11,205 is the April closing high
11,734 from 11-98 peak
10,609 from the Mid-September 2008 interim low
10,594 is the June 2010 peak
10,496 is the November 2009 high
The 200 day SMA at 10,427
The 50 day EMA at 10,370
10,365 is the late September 2008 low
10,285 is the late December consolidation peak
10,260 from the May and June 2010 interim peaks
10,120 is the October 2009 peak
9829 is the September 2008 closing high
9918 is the September 2008 peak
9855 is the early September peak in its lateral range
9835 is the late September 2009 peak AND the February 2010 low
9774 is the May 2010 intraday low
9325 is a late 2008 interim peak
9034 from early 2009 peaks
These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.
August 02 - Monday
Construction Spending, June (10:00): 0.1% actual versus -0.8% expected, -1.0% prior (revised from -0.2%)
ISM Index, July (10:00): 55.5 actual versus 54.2 expected, 56.2 prior
August 03 - Tuesday
Personal Income, June (08:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior (revised from 0.4%)
Personal Spending, June (08:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.0% expected, 0.1% prior (revised from 0.2%)
PCE Prices - Core, June (08:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior (revised from 0.2%)
Factory Orders, June (10:00): -1.2% actual versus -0.5% expected, -1.8% prior (revised from -1.4%)
Pending Home Sales, June (10:00): -2.6% actual versus -5.0% expected, -29.9% prior (revised from -30.0%)
Auto Sales, July (14:00): 4.0M expected, 3.70M prior
Truck Sales, July (14:00): 5.0M expected, 4.8M prior
August 04 - Wednesday
ADP Employment Change, July (08:15): 42K actual versus 25K expected, 19K prior (revised from 13K)
ISM Services, July (10:00): 54.3 actual versus 53.0 expected, 53.8 prior
Crude Inventories, 07/31 (10:30): -2.78M actual versus 7.31M prior
August 05 - Thursday
Continuing Claims, 07/24 (08:30): 4537K actual versus 4530K expected, 4571K prior (revised from 4565K)
Initial Claims, 07/31 (08:30): 479K actual versus 455K expected, 460K prior (revised from 457K)
August 06 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, July (08:30): -131K actual versus -87K expected, -221K prior (revised from -125K)
Nonfarm Payrolls - P, July (08:30): 71K actual versus 83K expected, 31K prior (revised from 83K)
Unemployment Rate, July (08:30): 9.5% actual versus 9.6% expected, 9.5% prior
Hourly Earnings, July (08:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior (revised from -0.1%)
Average Workweek, July (08:30): 34.2 actual versus 34.1 expected, 34.1 prior
Consumer Credit, June (15:00): -$1.3B actual versus -$5.7B expected, -$5.3B prior (revised from -$9.1B)
August 10 - Tuesday
Productivity-Preliminary, Q2 (08:30): 0.1% expected, 2.8% prior
Unit Labor Costs, Q2 (08:30): 1.4% expected, -1.3% prior
Wholesale Inventories, June (10:00): 0.4% expected, 0.5% prior
FOMC Rate Decision, August 10 (14:15): 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior
August 11 - Wednesday
Trade Balance, June (08:30): -$42.5B expected, -42.3B prior
Crude Inventories, 08/07 (10:30): -2.78M prior
Treasury Budget, July (14:00): -$169.0B expected, -$180.7B prior
August 12 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 08/07 (08:30): 465K expected, 479K prior
Continuing Claims, 07/31 (08:30): 4550K expected, 4537K prior
Export Prices ex-ag., July (08:30): -0.2% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, July (08:30): -0.6% prior
August 13 - Friday
CPI, July (08:30): 0.2% expected, -0.1% prior
Core CPI, July (08:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Retail Sales, July (08:30): 0.5% expected, -0.5% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, July (08:30): 0.2% expected, -0.1% prior
Michigan Sentiment, August (09:55): 70.0 expected, 67.80 prior
Business Inventories, June (10:00): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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