Friday, November 23, 2018

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -21.93; DJ -164.39; NASDAQ -61.31

Stocks again cannot hold a lead. After a bounce WED off the TUES low, stocks are set to open lower. Initial Black Friday reports long lines lots of internet usage, but stocks are not looking at that, but instead down the road.

Bonds are up again as TLT bumps the 50 day MA and looks as if it will break it on the open. It has not traded over that level since August on a brief bounce before rolling over as the Fed became more hawkish.

Oil: Clobbered 7% but has recovered -- some, down 6%. Excess supply is blamed as S. Arabia pumps record output, dollar still strong (though off today). You have to also wonder about oil pricing in the world economy and thus the usage over 2019.

AAPL: Word is the company is lowering the price of some X phones in Japan, particularly the XR.

China: Said to have approved the UTX/ROK deal

Reports Thursday said the US/China might reach a window dressing or 'mock' deal at the G-20 to appease naysayers, but the deal would not really mean or do anything. Not sure how the reporter derived that conclusion so take it for what it is worth.

Border: President threatens to close it. That is what happens when you have an executive branch and judicial branch that don't agree. The President has very broad border/immigration powers so it sets up an 'interesting' battle ahead.

Bonds: 3.043% vs 3.065%. Bonds continue to rally and will see if they close over resistance today. Shows some worry about safety, economy.

EUR/USD: 1.1354 vs 1.1383

USD/JPY: 112.74 bs 113.07. Dollar lower

Oil: 5117, -3.46. Off the lows but not by much as a 6% drop in one day thus far.

Gold: 1221.40, -6.60

Earlier in the week there was a shift from the recent Dow-type leaders to some buying in growth after the latter was oversold, the former had extended runs. Watching how that plays out because picking up those recent leaders off the test would be the best upside play. So will see if they hold and set up bounces.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist

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