Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +16.71; DJ +129.36; NASDAQ +73.84

Get a bit oversold, toss in some trade and Fed positives on a holiday shortened week and voila, a bounce.

Fed: MNI reports that the Fed is supposedly going to pause in the spring of 2019. Okay, that is the speculation anyway but someone wrote it so it must have some credence. Rally stocks.

Trade: Navarro reportedly won't travel to the Trump/Xi trade meeting at the G20. China protagonist left home? Rally stocks.

Futures gapped higher, range-traded for 3+ hours, rallying into 8:00ET, fading a bit from highs toward the open. Still a solid open to come.

The question is of course sustainability. We will see how some of these rebounds in some of the better patterns holds in growth. Also of real importance is how the JNJ's, VZ, and other recent true leaders perform after getting roughed up just a bit Tuesday as the market reversed and saw the downtrodden come back, the leaders suffer profit taking.

Durable Goods, Prelim Oct: -4.4% vs -2.6% vs -0.1% prior (from 0.8%)

Ex-transp: 0.1 vs 0.4 exp vs -0.6 prior (from 0.1)

Business cap-ex: 0.0 vs 0.2 expected

GS: Stock market decline does not necessarily mean a recession is ahead. that is in line with what it said earlier week.

Earnings beats; BJ, GPS, FL, ADSK

Misses: DE (TL, BL)

Downgrades: GS, LOW

Bonds: 3.065% vs 3.074%

EUR/USD: 1.1404 vs 1.1370

USD/JPY: 112.91 vs 112.883

Oil: 54.69, +1.26

Gold: 1226.70, +5.50

The session before Thanksgiving and a rebound is coming. Trade around TGiving can be quirky as noted last night and this one will be remembered for the downside and we will see if it will be remembered for the start of the yearend rally.

We have some plays on stocks that held up their patterns during the selling. Those show a better pedigree, and if they make and hold some good moves we will be interested in putting some money their way.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist

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