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11/29/2018 Investment House Daily
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Investment House Daily Subscribers:
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: ADBE; LRCX; TEAM
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
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Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Table with play annotations will issue Wednesday, Weekend.
Monday a Market Summary video, new plays, play table annotations.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to view the index charts, and updated play table.
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If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.
- Market struggles with a hangover after the Wednesday Powell rush.
- Indices show doji below resistance, several big names as well. Still, others make some great moves.
- G-20 Friday may yield a 'for show' trade deal between US/China.
- A couple more days of testing would be perfect to resume the move higher.
Stocks were indeed a bit hung over after the Wednesday 2-part rally, the one before Powell and the surge post-Powell. Stocks rallied into the Wednesday close and as is often the case, they stumbled around the following session. Started lower, managed to move positive, but could not hold onto the rebound. A bit too soon after such a run on Wednesday.
SP500 -6.03, -0.22%
NASDAQ -18.51, -0.25%
DJ30 -27.59, -0.11%
NASDAQ 100 -0.30%
VOLUME: NYSE -14%, NASDAQ -16%. Good to see volume fade as the indices paused the move. Good action.
ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE -1.1:1, NASDAQ -1.2:1.
To view, click on the following links:
If you look at the index charts and the big name charts you see a lot of doji.
DJ30 showed a tight doji just below the 50 day EMA SP500 showing a doji that tapped the 50 day EMA and 200 day SMA on the high before slipping back.
NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 showed doji at some resistance from the early October and early November lows.
SOX had its doji below the 50 day MA, still in its problematic pattern.
SP500 below the 50 day EMA, though still quite some distance from it, and RUTX threw its doji in the middle of nowhere, just over the 20 day EMA.
Leadership and big names showed similar signals. AMZN flipped a doji just below the 200 day SMA after a big Wednesday. GOOG kind of, stalling to close just below the 50 day EMA. MSFT a doji over the 50 day EMA, CRM as well. PEP, JNJ flipped some doji as did the financials, e.g. C, BAC.
Not all, however. PFE, LLY, ABT continued with nice gains. Software surged again (DATA, VRSN, VMW, TEAM). MCD gapped higher along with BA. Not a complete session of pausing to reflect.
Still, lots of doji, many of the best moving indices near resistance. That can indicate a bounce is out of gas. Three sharp days upside into resistance. In a really weak market that can mean rollover. This market is not blowing anyone away the past two months with its upside strength, and thus you have to consider this as a potential rollover point. It is.
But, there is also the Fed backtracking on its hawkishness and a meeting Friday with Trump and Xi at the G-20. It is said that an 'appearance deal' will be struck, that something will be agreed to. In other words, they won't trade blows, hurl insults, but will act nice, agree to agree on some things, and thus both try to salvage a market rebound into yearend.
With those main market headache issues placated temporarily, you would look for the resolution of this doji to be upside and continue the market yearend rally that started this week. I would not expect Friday to generate a significant upside session unless something really decent happens at G-20. That may be reserved for the weekend announcements.
In any event, a 2 to 3 day pause at this juncture is just enough to keep people guessing and allow the market to resume the upside after the initial rush had people thinking of getting in. You know what I mean: the initial rush that catches them by surprise because they were not looking at the patterns, the MACD, the sentiment, the rush that is well underway before they even realize the upside is not reversing midday. They are then about to take the plunge when the market suddenly stalls at the 50 day EMA, 200 day SMA, etc. It stalls one day, then two, then three . . . surely the move is ending. That little 1-2-3 test/rest, however, rejuvenates the bids, and then they are back up and running toward yearend.
That is the way we see it for now -- duly noting that the Thursday doji could indeed be a stall signal versus a continuation doji. That can always happen, but again, the setup is right, the issues are being removed, and the bounce has started. It likely sees it through for a good part of December. After that, who knows.
We picked up a few positions (ADBE, LRCX, TEAM) and will continue to look for more, best after another 1 to 2 days of pause. That will put things ripe to move higher again. That is the perfect scenario, and of course you take what the market gives which often is not the perfect setup, though -- when you look at the double bottoms at the October low you cannot help but shake your head at the typical fall setup that again showed itself.
Stats: -27.59 points (-0.11%) to close at 25338.84
Stats: -18.51 points (-0.25%) to close at 7273.08
Volume: 2.01B (-15.55%)
Up Volume: 940.37M (-1.1B)
Down Volume: 1.04B (+715.99M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.23 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 3.58 to 1
New Highs: 37 (0)
New Lows: 94 (-62)
Stats: -6.03 points (-0.22%) to close at 2737.76
NYSE Volume: 797.576M (-13.82%)
Up Volume: 337.679M (-486.072M)
Down Volume: 451.887M (+355.033M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.13 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 4.07 to 1
New Highs: 38 (-2)
New Lows: 168 (-37)
VIX: 18.79; +0.30
VXN: 24.33; +0.22
VXO: 21.35; +1.07
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.89; +0.05
Bulls and Bears:
A significant drop in bulls below 40.00 with bears moving back up to 19.8, the recent range top. Bears remain reluctant to surge but bulls are doing a lot of the work for them by dropping into the thirties. This is getting closer to bounce-worthy numbers. Not new bull run numbers, but bounce-worthy.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 39.6 versus 42.9
42.9 versus 42.5 versus 50.5 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 61.8 versus 60.6 versus 59.0 versus 57.7 versus 60.1 versus 59.6 versus 57.7 versus 57.3 versus 54.9 versus 54.5 versus 54.9 versus 55.3 versus 52.4 versus 47.1 versus 47.6 versus 52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2 versus 49.5 versus 55.5 versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5 versus 41.9 versus 54.4 versus 66.00
Bears: 19.8 versus 19.0
19.0 versus 19.8 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 18.3 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.5 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.4 versus 17.6 versus 17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2 versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7 versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2
Bonds: 3.032% versus 3.061%. Bonds are forming an excellent handle to a double bottom formed in October. Looks as if bonds will break higher, rates lower.
Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 3.061% versus 3.058% versus 3.059% versus 3.048% versus 3.065% versus 3.074% versus 3.056% versus 3.065% versus 3.116% versus 3.127% versus 3.147% versus 3.186% versus 3.239% versus 3.228% versus 3.222% versus 3.201% versus 3.22% versus 3.146% versus 3.149% versus 3.119% versus 3.089% versus 3.079% versus 3.126% versus 3.111% versus 3.1692% versus 3.20% versus 3.196% versus 3.1779% versus 3.209% versus 3.165% versus 3.158% versus 3.167% versus 3.146% versus 3.169 versus 3.206% versus 3.233% versus 3.189% versus 3.183% versus 3.061% versus 3.087% versus 3.061% versus 3.052% versus 3.048% versus 3.048% versus 3.085% versus 3.066% versus 3.068% versus 3.076% versus 3.057% versus 2.99% versus 3.00% versus 2.972% versus 2.963% versus 2.977% versus 2.937%
EUR/USD: 1.13934 versus 1.13682.
Historical: 1.13682 versus 1.12973 versus 1.13325 versus 1.13380 versus 1.13829 versus 1.13818 versus 1.14484 versus 1.14172 versus 1.13308 versus 1.13264 versus 1.13124 versus 1.12348 versus 1.13475 versus 1.1364 versus 1.14329 versus 1.14228 versus 1.14090 versus 1.13881 versus 1.14019 versus 1.13394 versus 1.13455 versus 1.13760 versus 1.14042 versus 1.13757 versus 1.3972 versus 1.14682 versus 1.14626 versus 1.1538 versus 1.14556 versus 1.14961 versus 1.1578 versus 1.15906 versus 1.15592 versus 1.15901 versus 1.15324 versus 1.4966 versus 1.4916 versus 1.1598 versus 1.15164 versus 1.14762 versus 1.15517 versus 1.15774 versus 1.16038 versus 1.16357 versus 1.17501
USD/JPY: 113.402 versus 113.559. Not a bad test of near support as dollar trades near the top of the 2 month range.
Historical: Last below 109 in June 2018: 113.559 versus 113.781 versus 113.510 versus 112.972 versus 113.007 versus 113.077 versus 112.617 versus 112.831 versus 113.585 versus 113.576. Was at 110 three weeks back.
Oil: 51.45, _1.16. A week holding 50. Oil is trying to set up for a bounce in its ugly downtrend.
Gold: 1224.10, +0.50. Holding the 50 day MA in a test after bouncing. Trying to set up for a move higher now that the Fed is off the strong hiking.
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