Futures vs FV: SP -12.45; DJ -126.24; NASDAQ -35.09
Futures tailed off Monday night on the President's comments regarding possible outcomes with the China trade issue. That included putting tariffs on products not currently subject to tariffs, e.g. AAPL products manufactured in China. AAPL sold off and futures with it.
Futures started higher early on, though below the Monday close, but have trailed off again over the past 5 hours.
Fed: Clarida gave a much anticipated speech. Everyone wanted to hear what the newest member had to say. Everyone appears to have heard what they want. Some say he was a parrot of the Fed's hawkish mantra, staying the course on hikes. Others said he was showing the 'new' more recent look of the Fed, a data dependent Fed. He did say the FFR was 'just below' the Fed's long-term neutral estimate. That looks more dovish than the hawkish stance. It appears to us the Fed is prepping for stopping after a December hike. It is adjusting expectations well away from Powell's comments now almost two months ago. That is our opinion; bond yields are higher today and futures are lower, not moving up on the Clarida comments.
Black Friday/Cyber Monday: AMZN says CM sales +20%. Overall CM sales jumped $7.9B.
Housing: Case/Shiller +5.1%, the slowest rise since January 2017.
Earnings: Just misses this morning. HIBB (TL, BL); BKE (TL, BL).
Bonds: 3.068% vs 3.059%. Bonds lower, yields higher after Fed's Clarida delivers speech.
EUR/USD: 1.1322 vs 1.1325
USD/JPY: 113.61 VS 113.56
Oil: 51.51, -0.12
Gold: 1221.30, -1.10
After an upside Monday stocks are set to open lower on trade worries and the trade overlay. Monday saw bounces from the prior week's drop to test the October low. If the bounce has any staying power it will limit the losses. Perhaps we get some early dips in stocks that moved higher Monday and then a recovery. If so, we could get some entries with good confidence on VZ, BABA and the like.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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