Thursday, November 15, 2018

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -17.98; DJ -110.50; NASDAQ -40.12

Futures range-traded all pre-market and currently trade at the lows of the range. Pretty much a microcosm of the overall market action this week.

Plenty of economic data. Not providing a catalyst thus far.

Retail Sales, Oct: 0.8 vs 0.5 ex vs -0.1 Sep (from 0.0)

Ex-Auto: 0.7 vs 0.5 vs -0.1 prior

Control group: 4.5% year/year, the softest since April. A bit of a slowdown. A bit.

NY PMI, Nov: 23.3 vs 20.0 exp vs 21.1 Oct

Philly Fed: 12.9 vs 20.5 vs 22.22 prior

Import Prices, Oct: 0.5 vs 0.2 prior (from 0.5)

Ex-oil: 0.2 vs 0.0 prior

Exports: 0.4 vs 0.0

Ex-agriculture: 0.5 vs 0.2

Earnings beats: CSCO

Misses: WMT (top line, but raised guidance; trading up)

Brexit: Key ministers resign over the Brexit plan. Just leave for goodness sake.

Dalio (billionaire so take it for what it is worth): Fed has increased rates to a point where they hurt asset prices.

Powell: Last night he said he was concerned about markets, etc., but they are just one factor in his analysis cake mix. Cramer says it is softening. In reality it is just lip service. Remember this Fed has always paid lip service. It was doing it before Powell's 'hike until it breaks moment,' and with the heat he took afterward he is again paying lip service. He has his agenda and he is sticking to it. Anyone expecting softening of the position without a major economic hiccup is fooling themselves, hoping for something.

Speaking of economies, the world is not great. Oil, copper, Baltic Dry Index are all rolling over.

Bonds: 3.092% vs 3.127%

EUR/USD: 1.1303 vs 1.1313

USD/JPY: 113.25 vs 113.51

Oil: 56.50, +0.25

Gold: 1212.20, +2.10

Futures are diving into the open, having broke their morning range. Dow futures dropped 100 points in a flash. The market downside bias continues and grows in strength. This as Cramer howls against the bearish people, basically cursing the darkness instead of lighting a candle. That is the definition of impotence.

In any event, whatever 'Powell upside' the market had this morning is gone and the modest gains are being sold.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist

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