Friday, February 15, 2019

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +11.52; DJ +110.61; NASD +30.58

Futures on a slow, steady rise all morning, much driven by the largesse of central banks and the recent slowdown in economic data.

The ECB suggests that it new QE may be possible -- uh oh, another Japan in the making?

Weaker US economic data engenders talk of the next Fed move being a rate cut.

Exports, Jan: -0.6% vs -0.6% December

Imports, Jan: -0.5% vs -1.0% December

China is said to be exporting deflation

Industrial Prod, Jan: -0.6% vs +0.1% exp vs 0.1 prior (from 0.3)

Utilization: 78.2 vs 78.7 vs 78.8

Empire Mftring: 8.8 vs 7.0 expected vs 3.9 prior

The outlier is the Empire PMI, but the other data cast doubt on economic growth, and that upped futures.

The takeaway: growth is great, but central banks are still in control of the markets because they now manage economic growth instead of maintaining stable currencies.

Earnings beats: PEP (TL); NVDA; AMAT

Misses: DE (BL, blames tariffs); CBS (TL, BL); XPO (TL, BL); NWL (TL); TrueCar (TL, BL)

AMZN: Pulls out of New York plans. Now Miss Ocasio-Cortez can 'spend' the $3B she says it would 'cost' New York. Oh, what? There is not a pile of $3B of money to use for schools? That was to come only after AMZN made money there and returned billions to New York? Hello, AMZN? Can you come back? I think we had a misunderstanding. No, no misunderstanding, just stupidity, or at least not getting up to speed on how the deal would work. Okay, I suppose that is stupidity.

Bonds: 2.682% vs 2.654%

EUR/USD: 1.1259 vs 1.1289

USD/JPY: 110.58 VS 110.52

Oil: 54.91, +0.50

Gold: 1320.20, +6.30

Weaker economic data, central banks hinting at more compliancy, futures hitting higher highs into the open.

After 2 upside days, 2 flat days, expiration Friday ahead of a 3-day weekend is starting upside. Can it close the deal today and avoid those late-session drops of the prior two sessions?

Bigger picture, indices are just below resistance, still having room to run. Thus far the news has mostly helped with the central banks, the economic data, and thus far kicking the trade deal can into next week.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist

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