Wednesday, January 16, 2019

The Daily, Part 1, 1-16-19

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1/16/2019 Investment House Daily
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Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: NBEV
Stop alerts: None issued

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- Nice start, disappointing action overall.
- Failure to push through resistance leaves the downside potential still present, but SOX, RUTX, SP400 not bad.
- Leaders from Tuesday yield to the banks and financials and their earnings. Now we see if the bids return.

After the nice NASDAQ-led break higher Tuesday -- with really only NASDAQ breaking higher -- stocks continued upside. Sounds great on the heels of a NASDAQ break over the 50 day MA's and looking for the other indices to follow, but it was not a real follow through and indeed, it was not really a good session.

I don't want to sound too negative: it was not a reversal, not a rollover, not a door slamming on the attempt to start a third upside leg. The problem is, the indices and leading stocks started out quite well, absorbed some selling and recovered to new highs by mid-afternoon, but then closed poorly, selling the last 2 hours, frittering away a good second upside session and casting doubt upon the Tuesday bids that looked quite good.

SP500 5.80, 0.22%
NASDAQ 10.86, 0.15%
DJ30 141.57, 0.59% (thanks to the banks)
SP400 0.68%
RUTX 0.66%
SOX -0.82%
NASDAQ 100 -0.02%

The Tuesday leaders in NASDAQ 100 were up early but managed to blow good moves. Semiconductors were lower again though SOX did manage a close sitting on the 50 day MA.

Perhaps it was just a day for the rest of the market to take a back seat to moves by the banks and other financial stocks. BAC and GS beat earnings and enjoyed excellent gains. Money moved their way for the day -- and likely for more days ahead -- but it will also likely return to the other areas moving higher Tuesday IF . . . the third upside leg continues.


The biggest news was the banks, earnings and price moves. After that, the Fed Beige Book which was pretty beige. It noted that 'outlooks generally remained positive, but many districts reported contacts had become less optimistic.' Why? Market volatility, rising short-term rates, falling energy prices, elevated trade and political uncertainty.' Pretty much sums it up in a nutshell -- or nutcase.

PM May survived, barely, a no confidence vote. May vowed to meet with Parliament leaders tonight to hammer out a new plan in order to head back over and meet with the EU in Brussels where the EU will offer no concessions. The hamster on the wheel keeps running.

Shutdown: House passes a bill without wall funding; all for show, but at least the democrats actually pass things. Pelosi uninvites (disinvites? Never sure which is correct) Trump from the State of the Union. I guess there cannot be an address. Not a bad thing at all, though it is always a hoot to watch a Trump speech. When he gets on a roll he can really suspend disbelief -- his own and others!


Edging higher for most of the indices, RUTX and NASDAQ clearing some resistance but by really inconsequential amounts. SOX is testing the break over resistance. Again, a very important move in progress, determinative of the third leg -- or a new leg lower.

SP500, DJ30: Both large cap NYSE indices moves higher, making it to the 50 day MA and the bottom of the October/December range. SP500 is also smack at the 78% Fibonacci retracement of the December selloff. DJ30 is just below the 61% retracement of that selling. In short, they are higher but also still below resistance, and that leaves open the door for a resumption of the selling.

NASDAQ: Continued the move over the 50 day MA but gave up 45 points off the high on the close. That is a big fade. Volume remained low overall, however, and perhaps this is just a test. Key, key area.

SOX: After the strong Friday move that extended the break above the 50 day MA, SOX has struggled. Struggled but not collapsing. It is holding the 50 day MA in a 3-day test. That is actually not bad action at all, testing the break over resistance, holding the resistance. Of course, SOX needs to rally from here.

RUTX: Cleared the 50 day MA and the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the December selling, but barely, and RUTX also gave up 5.5 points off the high -- a lot of points for an index at 1450 versus say the Dow at 24,200. Ever so close to making a breakout.

SP400: rising up to the 50 day SMA, clearing it momentarily, closing at that level. Not bad action, but still remains at that resistance that is coincident with the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the December selloff. As with the other indices, a key test in progress.


FAANG: You know things are a bit backward when AAPL is the FAANG leader. Others rallied then faded. GOOG showing a tombstone after a great Tuesday move. Likely just a continuation doji in a very good upside pattern, but then again, its CEO looks to have lied to Congress based upon the information coming out today. Good job! Your investors really appreciate your lack of character and honor.

Financial: Clearly the leaders of the day as GS, MC, BAC showed great moves. WFC didn't stink. STT looks very interesting.

Semiconductors: AVGO faded from its Tuesday attempted breakout. CY still looks interesting as does AMD with the same pattern. AMAT as well. LSCC still trending upside. SIMO similar to AMD and others. There is promise here, but that is about all thus far.

Pot: Took a breather for a second session. CGC testing and resting, CRON ditto.

Metals: FCX continues higher up off the 50 day MA. SID (steel) is testing the 10 day EMA and is not bad. HMY in gold is still interesting. Interesting with some patterns, most . . . meh.

Machinery: CAT testing laterally looking to break higher and run at the 200 day. TEX still lateral under the 50 day MA.

Software: Off session. DATA gapped higher, ready to continue that solid Tuesday move, then sold off back to the 50 day. TEAM touched the prior high, faded to the 10 day EMA. NOW has a nice weeklong lateral move; like it. CRM paused after a good break higher Tuesday. COUP rallied then faded to a modest gain. Still good patterns.

Misc: NBEV sold back today and we took the rest of the gain, but if it holds at the 10 day EMA and bounces, we can pick it up again. TEN is continuing the break over the 50 day EMA; very interesting. YETI is a newer issue that looks promising. ULTA is setting up again.


Stats: +141.57 points (+0.59%) to close at 24207.16

Stats: +10.86 points (+0.15%) to close at 7034.69
Volume: 2.15B (+4.88%)

Up Volume: 1.08B (-360M)
Down Volume: 1.05B (+490.22M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.62 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.14 to 1

New Highs: 30 (+4)
New Lows: 16 (-3)

Stats: +5.80 points (+0.22%) to close at 2616.10
NYSE Volume: 860.32M (-0.89%)

Up Volume: 514.97M (-16.633M)
Down Volume: 317.541M (-12.142M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.63 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.77 to 1

New Highs: 22 (+9)
New Lows: 9 (-3)


VIX: 19.04; +0.44
VXN: 24.07; +0.41
VXO: 18.33; +0.17

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.08; +0.05

Bulls and Bears:

After a quick crossover, a quick trist, bulls rebounded, bears fell a bit, and there is some separation. Still, the deed is done; they crossed over, typically a very good indication sentiment was extreme to the negative and sets up a move higher. We are seeing a move and now the indices are near the next key levels of resistance.

Bulls: 34.8 versus 29.9

Bears: 29.4 versus 34.6

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.

Bulls: 34.8 versus 29.9
29.9 versus 39.3 versus 45.4 versus 46.7 versus 38.3 versus 39.6 versus 42.9 versus 42.5 versus 50.5 versus 51.9 versus 56.3 versus 61.8 versus 60.6 versus 59.0 versus 57.7 versus 60.1 versus 59.6 versus 57.7 versus 57.3 versus 54.9 versus 54.5 versus 54.9 versus 55.3 versus 52.4 versus 47.1 versus 47.6 versus 52.0 versus 55.5 versus 52.9 versus 50.0 versus 49.1 versus 46.6 versus 43.1 versus 43.6 versus 48.0 versus 43.6 versus 42.2 versus 49.5 versus 55.5 versus 54.9 versus 48.6 versus 48.1 versus 48.5 versus 41.9 versus 54.4 versus 66.00

Bears: 29.4 versus 34.6
34.6 versus 21.4 versus 20.4 versus 21.50 versus 20.6 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 19.8 versus 19.8 versus 19.0 versus 18.3 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.1 versus 18.3 versus 18.3 versus 18.6 versus 18.8 versus 18.6 versus 18.5 versus 18.5 versus 18.6 versus 18.4 versus 17.6 versus 17.8 versus 17.7 versus 19.2 versus 19.2 versus 19.4 versus 19.4 versus 20.6 versus 20.8 versus 19.6 versus 19.8 versus 18.6 versus 17.5 versus 16.8 versus 15.7 versus 15.5 versus 14.4 versus 14.6 versus 14.4 versus 15.5 versus 12.6 versus 12.8 versus 12.7 versus 13.5 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 15.1 versus 15.4 versus 15.4 versus 14.4 versus 14.4 versus 15.1 versus 15.2 versus 15.1 versus 17.0 versus 17.1 versus 19.0 versus 20.2


Bonds: 2.727% versus 2.718%. Bonds gapped lower, recovered to near flat. Still trending lower form the early January breakout.

Historical: the last sub-2% rate was in November 2016 (1.867%). 2.718% versus 2.706% versus 2.699% versus 2.733% versus 2.712% versus 2.731% versus 2.694% versus 2.668% versus 2.552% versus 2.643% versus 2.686% versus 2.716% versus 2.774% versus 2.811% versus 2.736% versus 2.788% versus 2.803%. versus 2.762% versus 2.821% versus 2.855% versus 2.895% versus 2.913% versus 2.908% versus 2.884% versus 2.863% versus 2.854% versus 2.892% versus 2.915% versus 2.979% versus 2.993% versus 3.032% versus 3.061% versus 3.058% versus 3.059% versus 3.048% versus 3.065% versus 3.074% versus 3.056% versus 3.065% versus 3.116%

EUR/USD: 1.13993 versus 1.14802. Dollar continued the week's recovery after the euro bumped the 200 day SMA and stalled.

Historical: 1.14802 versus 1.14734 versus 1.14699 versus 1.15075 versus 1.15532 versus 1.14547 versus 1.14834 versus 1.13980 versus 1.13957 versus 1.13343 versus 1.14450 versus 1.14425 versus 1.1432 versus 1.13588 versus 1.14015 versus 1.13708 versus 1.13828 versus 1.13755 versus 1.13533 versus 1.13049

USD/JPY: 108.912 versus 108.551. Dollar bounced to the 20 day EMA.

Historical: Last below 109 in June 2018: 108.551 versus 108.340 versus 108.563 versus 108.332 versus 107.959 versus 108.802 versus 108.705 versus 108.517 versus 107.173 versus 107.515 versus 109.687 versus 110.273 versus 110.845 versus 111.190 versus 110.337 versus 111.223 versus 111.21 versus 112.521 versus 112.477 versus 112.653 versus 113.382

Oil: 52.31, +0.20. Nice lateral move below the 50 day MA and the 52.50 resistance. Setting up that potential inverted head and shoulders the past 8 weeks.

Gold: 1293.80, +5.40. Still pinching off over the 10 day EMA and below the upper trendline in the triangle.

End part 1
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