Futures vs FV: SP +24.41; DJ +249.65; NASDAQ +47.00
Trade tweets -- that it is going 'very well' and extended for a third day -- are helping lift futures in a steady rise the past two hours. Modest gains at the open of futures then crawling along. The bids have come in with more force as the bell nears and stocks are set to open with very good gains, extending the second leg of the rally off the December lows.
Lots of talk this morning about trade and the Fed, how the Fed is now supposedly off the burner and trade looking better. Priming for an upset when the inevitable negative headline re trade or one of these Fed speakers this week doesn't tap dance as well as Powell did Friday?
NFIB: Small business sentiment lower: 57.6 vs 58.8 vs 60.7
EU: German Industrial Production falls the most since 2009. After a long string of positives, albeit slowing increases, it suddenly flips negative. The second negative reading from Germany this week.
Sears: after almost 125 years, Sears is closing.
Samsung misses by 18% on profits
LG WARNS OF LOWER PROFITS
Downgrades: JPM; MA
Bonds: 2.705% vs 2.694%. Backing off, yields rising some after the rally.
EUR/USD: 1.1426. Euro off just modestly against dollar.
USD/JPY: 108.84, +0.14. Dollar actually rises against the euro.
Oil: 49.31, +0.79. Oil rises closer to resistance at 50
Gold: 1281.40, -8.50
The upside appears solidly in place as a soft open Monday followed by gains goes straight to gains Tuesday. Not just a gap and hold, but a steady rise into the open.
This will push SP500, NASDAQ closer toward the next resistance, but both have room to move higher a couple more sessions (depending upon the size of gains) before that test. Another 2 days upside and the market has 4 to 5 upside sessions on this leg, getting a bit extended on this second leg. Nothing unexpected there.
The chips have been starting to join the action, biotechs are in as well. Our new plays from last night look at those and we will see if they look good enough to buy today. NVDA is up another 3 clicks pre-market on top of its Monday move through resistance. AMD moving through the 50 day SMA as well.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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