Futures vs FV: SP -40.05; DJ -373.46; NASDAQ -143.31
The upbeat comments regarding progress on a trade deal with China through New Years has faded to the prospects for 2019 and the subsequent commentary of the two sides. A Chinese strategist general said China should sink a couple of US carriers the next time they are in what China claims to be its waters to put fear into Americans. Xi demands Taiwan agree to a 'peaceful' reunification. Oh THAT will happen. US trade advisor Lighthizer says he believes more tarriffs on China are necessary to gain meaningful concessions. You can call it what you want to call it, but the sides still have issues.
Shutdown: Trump extends an invitation to meet to congressional leaders.
World economies: South Korea confirms weak Chinese data as SK exports miss all expectations, even the lowest numbers. Asian markets off to a start rivaling 2016's weak start.
NFLX: Subscriber growth fell short of expectations in Q4
TSLA: Missed on its Q4 auto deliveries at 90,700
Upgrades: WFC, Sirius/XM, Bausch Medical
Downgrades: AMZN (Evercore)
Bonds: 2.652% vs 2.686% 10 year
EUR/USD: 1.1371. Euro down to start 2019
USD/JPY: 109.14. Dollar continues to struggle against yen
Oil: 44.69, -0.72
Gold: 1286.20, +4.90
Futures gapped sharply lower at the open and have range-traded right up to the regular session open. They are off the lows, but not making a break higher from the morning range. Thus, there is no real bid thus far as our belief the market would see a bit of new money to start the year looks to be the first wrong prediction of 2019; that is why I stick to no predictions, just moves. In any event, the first move of the new year is down and sharply so. Will see if any bids emerge off the lower open, but given it is a new year one would think if money was at the ready it would be so at the open.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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