* * * *
11/5/2016 Investment House Daily
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Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: MRVL
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- Jobs miss and don't miss, and yes, show the same structural issues.
- Wages, as with jobs, are not what they appear to be.
- Stock indices try to rally on the jobs report but fail the effort.
- RUTX, SP400 suggest the market is just about sold out for now.
- A surge in workers out of the workforce, plummeting full-time jobs, record
workers working multiple jobs, and more manufacturing jobs losses. Yes that
was a great jobs report.
- Dollar lower, bonds sell, gold rallies. Strange action for solid economic
data and a Fed set to raise rates.
- A big week with more earnings and an election. Just treat it as usual.
The Friday Jobs Report was bad enough and good enough to keep the stock
indices status quo. Oh, there was a lot of movement between the bells, but
by the end of the session you had SP500, SP400 and RUTX sitting over their
200 day MA while NASDAQ and DJ30 played catch up to the downside, dropping a
quarter percent each.
SP500 -3.48, -0.17%
NASDAQ -12.04, -0.24%
DJ30 -42.39, -0.24%
VOLUME: NYSE +1%, NASDAQ -3%. After volume accelerated on NASDAQ on the
week it backed off but is still well above average on the selling. NYSE
trade is still above average, making it 8 straight sessions.
A/D: NYSE 1.1:1, NASDAQ 1.1:1. The small and midcaps helped out breadth.
Futures were up modestly but sold at the open. Nothing new there for this
week. After a half hour downside, however, a bid returned. Stocks pushed
higher to midmorning then faltered. At that time a rumor hit that the FBI's
Comey was readying an announcement regarding the Weiner/Clinton connection.
It made an inkling of sense; Comey announced the prior Friday that the
Clinton email investigation was back on. The peso started to rally and
stocks, revitalized, resumed their upside move into early afternoon.
Then, no Comey. Stocks moved laterally for 1.5 hours, then tumbled. I
guess the jobs data was not that great after all, and without the FBI making
another By the close they gave up the morning gains. Quite the symmetry in
the Friday intraday action.
SOX gapped below its 50 day EMA and could not hold the intraday recovery
over that level. First close below the 50 day EMA since early July. Gee,
sure looks as if it is following NASDAQ, SP400, and RUTX before it. It
still could be saved by the other indices finding the 200 day SMA and making
a bounce from that level.
SP500 tested down to the 200 day SMA, bounced, then faded it all. A big
hammer doji sitting on the 200 day SMA, still in position to rebound.
SP400 and RUTX showed similar action, though neither has found the 200 day
SMA just yet. They logged gains on the session. They sold before the other
indices, and their positive results on the day suggest that they are sold
out and ready to rebound, kind of a leading indicator for the rest of the
NASDAQ continued lower with a gap, recovered the loss and a lot more, but
then gave most of it back. Okay, NASDAQ is now a bit closer to next support
at 5,000 (closed at 5046).
DJ30 continued lower as well, also after an intraday try higher. DJ30 is
playing catch down to the other NYSE indices after breaking support at
18,000 Wednesday. Next support is literally at the 200 day SMA and some
interim price highs, lows, and gap points at that level.
In the end stock traders and investors opted for a nothing move. Not a move
about nothing -- the something is next Tuesday -- just not moving much at
all, at least on the close. They put in the miles intraday. The jobs
report was not good enough or bad enough -- not good enough to ensure an
incumbent party victory, not bad enough to get the Fed back onto stimulus.
As for the former, who knows? As for the latter, things are muddling along
but not accelerating.
No, not accelerating, just being as it was in the 1970's. Of course, as I
have written about for years and predicted, today's pundits look at these
numbers and talk about how great things are. They have 'dumbed down' their
economic analysis to today's standards versus what the US typically produces
economically. I said this would happen and it has.
That is why today there was one analyst on CNBC who made the most ludicrous
statement I have heard of late: the economy is in a Goldilocks mode. If
this is just right, I am going to have to move to a country where there is
growth potential, one where those purportedly in the intelligentsia have not
lost their minds.
There is no way on earth in the US that 1.4% GDP growth is 'Goldilocks.'
There is no way that 94.609M working aged people out of the workforce is
Goldilocks. There is no way that 8.05M people, an all time high, working
two or more jobs just to make ends meet is Goldilocks. There is no way an
economy creating hundreds of thousands more part-time jobs while LOSING
full-time jobs is Goldilocks. There is no way that 101M workers see their
2.4% wage gains eaten up by inflation when just 9 years ago their wages were
growing by 4+% and inflation was nonexistent. Goldilocks my rear. Just
another idiot living in the bubble that is New York and Washington, DC. I
would say something really mean but decorum (and better taste than I have)
But, as usual, I digress.
Stocks tried to bounce but without a cathartic selloff, that final shakeout,
the buyers just didn't have it in them to face a weekend ahead of a wildly
changing national election scene with the possibility at any time of leaks
or announcements about the latest investigation into whether a whole group
of people should be locked away in solitary confinement in Leavenworth
prison for life. Seems strange that those two statements are mentioned
together in discussing a national election -- in the US.
The bids didn't have the mojo to hang on, and now we have to see if
Monday/Tuesday brings a shakeout that stocks can build some momentum for a
I am asked about what to do ahead of the election. From my standpoint I am
just playing the index charts and the stock charts. The indices were heavy
and broke. Some have not and are still in good position to move higher in a
relief move and perhaps even beyond that. Indeed, the indices are now
oversold and one more push lower could provide the trigger for an upside
After that, will there be new highs? I don't think so without the Fed and
central banks stepping in as they did in February of this year. There is,
however, a trendline from 2009 for SP500 that is currently at roughly 2025,
60 points lower, that could be used as support. It was undercut in January
and February, but the indices put in a double bottom and of course rallied,
aided by that BOE and ECB buying off of the February lower lows.
In short, near term the indices are oversold and in position to rally,
perhaps after a bit deeper test, the final shakeout, and an idea that things
are still getting better. More to the point, that the Fed will still make
sure that, despite a 25BP hike in December, markets do not fall.
Jobs Report: Misses on jobs but wages rose. Just not for many.
The headlines again point to a modestly improved jobs market.
Non-farm payrolls: 161K versus 175K expected versus 176K Sept (from 167K)
Unemployment rate: 4.9% versus 4.9% expected versus 5.0% September
Wages: 0.39% versus 0.3% expected versus 0.3% Sept (from 0.2%). 2.8%
Workweek: 34.4 hours as expected and as in September.
Participation: 62.8M versus 62.9M
U6 (includes those wanting full time but not getting it): 9.5%, lowest since
I know, surprising it did not surge to 250K and a 4.5% unemployment reading
ahead of the election, but it didn't have to. Just report the same kind of
growth, a bit smaller unemployment rate, and some better wages. Never mind
if anyone feels any change. It's in the report so people watch it and
Reminds me of the 'Seinfeld' episode where George and Jerry came up with the
idea for their pilot about nothing and pitched it to NBC. When the head of
NBC asks why he would be watching it, George responds 'because it's on TV.'
There you go.
In the coffee shop.
George: "It's about nothing."
Jerry: "So we go into NBC and we tell them we have an idea for a show about
Jerry: "They say 'what is your show about?' I say nothing."
George: "There you go."
Jerry: "I think you may have something here."
* * *
At NBC headquarters describing the show idea to NBC execs.
George: "No. No. No! Nothing happens."
Jerry: "Well SOMETHING happens."
NBC exec Dalrymple: "Well why am I watching it?"
George: "Because it's on TV."
Dalrymple: "Not yet."
The REAL story is told in the breakdown of the where the jobs are, what kind
of jobs they are, and just who is working.
First, the big story, the wages.
What about those stronger wages? 0.4% and +2.8% year/year certainly looks
better. Problem is, it does not FEEL better for most working Americans.
The 2.8% annual rise in wages is the economic cycle high. It covers all
workers. When you break the wages down by groups, the impact is not equal
in terms of wages and in numbers impacted.
For the 101M private nonsupervisory and production workers, wages rose a
lower 2.4%, basically the same amount since 2014. Wages rose off the lows
of 2012 into 2014 and then have worked laterally in a range since. Compare
this with 4% wage growth for this group in 2007 as the recession hit.
When you factor in inflation, the wage gains dry up. September inflation
ran 1.5% and 2.2% at the core. Inflation swallows the majority of any wage
The gains are found in the 21.7M supervisory and managerial workers. Those
workers saw wages surge 4.7% year/year in October.
What does this underscore? That the US is still making more low wage, low
pay jobs than quality jobs, and with those jobs the best people can hope for
is to just hang on against inflation and forget any saving for retirement or
the kids' college.
Second, the participation rate. It moved back down to 62.8% as 425,000 LEFT
the workforce. That pushes the 'not in the workforce' number to 94.605M!
Oh, so THAT is why the unemployment rate fell. Not more people working,
just more people NOT working. And the unemployment rate falls. Now THAT
makes sense. Didn't I say last week that how the federal government
calculates economic data defies logic?
Third there is the full-time versus part-time problem.
Fulltime: -103,000! September: -5K
Part-time: +90K. September +430K.
Fourth: How many jobs are double counted, i.e. how many are working 2 or
Multiple job holders: Jumped to 8.05M, an ALL-TIME HIGH! What a great
economy that there are so many jobs people can hold 2 or 3 at a time! If
not, they would be evicted. Thank you Mr. President for crafting an economy
that creates a lot more no skill, minimum wage jobs than we need so people
can at least hold 2 of them to make a subsistence level of income.
Finally, just where are the jobs created? Again, it is not in the high wage
Professional and Business Services: +43K
Healthcare (aided by forced ACA spending): +41K
Leisure and Hospitality: +10K
The most consecutive downside sessions since 1980 or 36 years. The
reporters are making this sound as if it is up there with the worst drops in
history. Of course it is not. It just is down without a day off, a
continuation doji, or a weak bounce attempt. It was down harder in fewer
sessions in 2008. It is all relative. We have all seen stocks that move up
for two weeks but the gains are so slight it is up less than 3%. So yes,
SP500 is down 9 straight sessions, but it has lost just 3%. Oooh. Lock up
SP500: Why not start here? Gapped to the 200 day SMA and bounced 12
points. Then it gave them up to close lower. Showing a hammer doji at the
200 day SMA and in good position to make that oversold bounce take hold.
Just needs the trigger to move higher. An undercut of the 200 day SMA could
lead to a reversal that slingshots it upside. Again, if we see that, we are
going to take the rest of the downside gain on the SPY puts as well as
likely other downside positions.
SOX: Broke the 50 day MA's and the trendline out of the summer 2016. Not
collapsing, but lower MACD on both the recent highs and now breaking the
same support as NASDAQ before it followed SP400 lower that follows the same
pattern in RUTX when it rolled over. The path is clear.
NASDAQ: Down 9 straight sessions after a lower high in late October.
Friday NASDAQ gapped lower but reversed upside. It then sold back. Still
well above the 200 day SMA. Next support around 4978.
DJ30: Tried higher as well but faded to close at the session low. The next
support is likely the 200 day SMA (17,767; closed at 17,890). Took longer
but did break lower. If SP500 rebounds off the 200 day SMA that may keep
DJ30 off of that test.
SP400: Came close to the 200 day SMA but did not touch it. Rallied sharply
off the low, up 15 points on the high before it reversed and gave up almost
all of the move. Oversold, ready to bounce.
RUTX: Similar action as SP400, close to the 200 day SMA but not touching
it, surging upside, but giving up 12 points off the high (closed with a 6.5
point gain). Oversold as well, in position to bounce.
Big Names: The FANG lost $100B in market cap on the week. FB bombed lower
Thursday on earnings, posted a modest gain Friday. AMZN gapped below the
trendline Friday after a big drop Wednesday. AAPL fell Tuesday to Friday.
NFLX continues holding the 10 day EMA in a nice low volume test. GOOG
continued its plunge but Friday after a big gap lower recovered to flat.
Tech: MSFT gapped lower to the twin August peaks, where it needs to hold.
WDC flopped to the 50 day MA's by Friday. STX broke on the week, recovered
some Thursday and Friday but faded the move. CSCO really broke Friday but
managed to recover well off the low. FFIV, VMW still holding up well,
testing their upside breaks.
Chips: SOX broke its trend but still holding up decently enough with some
good patterns, but many stocks are showing the same break of support. MLNX
is still looking good for a break higher. LRCX gave up some ground, still
in a pullback. AMAT gapped lower, recovered some ground but still weak. MU
tried to recover the 50 day EMA but failed. AVGO hanging on at the 50 day
EMA, still unable to hold a move higher. QRVO gapped below the 200 day SMA
on earnings. Ugly.
Oil/Energy: CWEI is on its own planet. Rocky 2 weeks, made it through
earnings, now up almost 10% Friday to a new high. CVX is in a decent test
of its surge. HAL in a nice 50 day EMA test off its higher high. APA
trying a bounce after an earnings pounding. APC looks ready for another leg
lower. SYRG hung on at support.
Financial: Tested deeper but holding at support. C showing a doji at the
50 day MA. BAC at the 20 day EMA. TCBI trying to hang on at the 20 day;
maybe. GS showing a doji as it tests the 10 day EMA.
Metals: AKS making a nice break higher. SID sold to the 50 day SMA, trying
to hold it. FCX tested the 50 day but then surged upside Friday.
Retail: Not any improvement Friday from their struggles. HD, LOW, LULU
struggle. Department stores continue to struggle. KSS, JWN having issues.
M, DDS are trying to recover. Overall still not good. With the trucking
industry idling hundreds of rigs, the Christmas season does not look that
Industrial Machinery: After selling, trying to recover. CMI surged Friday
to the 50 day MA's, trying to recover from the Tuesday gap lower. CAT
started upside on volume off its Monday to Thursday drop. UTX continues
working on its pattern to recover.
Stats: -12.04 points (-0.24%) to close at 5046.37
Volume: 2.052B (-2.7%)
Up Volume: 945.25M (+353.56M)
Down Volume: 1.05B (-390M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.08 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.9 to 1
New Highs: 39 (+39)
New Lows: 167 (+167)
Stats: -3.48 points (-0.17%) to close at 2085.18
NYSE Volume: 935M (+1.08%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.06 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.5 to 1
New Highs: 24 (+6)
New Lows: 78 (-28)
Stats: -42.39 points (-0.24%) to close at 17888.28
VIX: 22.51; +0.43
VXN: 23.03; +0.67
VXO: 24.19; +1.52
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.37; +0.18
Six straight 1.0+ sessions after a string of weeks of below 1.0 readings.
Lots of put buying either for hedging or speculation. Kind of late to the
event. Six straight sessions is enough to help trigger a bounce.
Bulls and Bears: Rather absurd. Bulls surged the prior week and now crater
to a pullback low. Bears bounce to the level touched 5 weeks back. There
was no reason to bounce before and now it is tumbling back as it should.
Long way to go to give a new signal.
Bulls: 41.7 versus 47.1
Bears: 24.3 versus 23.1
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 41.7 versus 47.1
47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0
versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9%
versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus
47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus
Bears: 24.3 versus 23.1
23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6
versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2%
versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus
23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7%
versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8%
versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
Bonds (10 year): 1.778% versus 1.81%. After a volatile week following the
late October gap lower, bonds are trying the upside with a higher volume
move upside Friday. Cleared the 10 day EMA, an important first step.
Historical: 1.81% versus 1.797% versus 1.827% versus 1.83% versus 1.85%
versus 1.84% versus 1.791% versus 1.76% versus 1.76% versus 1.73% versus
1.75% versus 1.74% versus 1.74% versus 1.766% versus 1.80% versus 1.746%
versus 1.78% versus 1.723% versus 1.72% versus 1.74% versus 1.72% versus
1.69% versus 1.622% versus 1.60% versus 1.56% versus 1.569% versus 1.56%
versus 1.584% versus 1.62%
EUR/USD: 1.11406 versus 1.11059. Big upside week for the euro and it
continued Friday, moving through the 50 day SMA. Now let's get this
straight, supposedly solid economic data, Fed ready to hike rates, yet the
euro is running against the dollar. Doesn't add up.
Historical: 1.11059 versus 1.11020 versus 1.10560 versus 1.09646 versus
1.09860 versus 1.08963 versus 1.0895 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08793 versus
1.08851 versus 1.0928 versus 1.0971 versus 1.0977 versus 1.10217 versus
1.0966 versus 1.10536 versus 1.1032 versus 1.10598 versus 1.1233 versus
1.1183 versus 1.1147 versus 1.12052 versus 1.12091 versus 1.12066 versus
1.1239 versus 1.1218 versus 1.1228 versus 1.2148 versus 1.1254 versus 1.1248
USD/JPY: 103.122 versus 102.96. After an ugly flop Tuesday and Wednesday,
a modest bounce to the 50 day EMA Friday.
Historical: 102.96 versus 103.350 versus 104.042 versus 104.798 versus
104.710 versus 105.305 versus 104.412 versus 104.2110 versus 104.331 versus
103.83 versus 103.99 versus 103.99 versus 103.602 versus 103.892 versus
103.815 versus 104.201 versus 103.634 versus 103.690 versus 103.698 versus
103.95 versus 103.159 versus 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus
102.035 versus 101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55 versus
100.75 versus 101.034 versus 101.045 versus 100.386
Oil: 44.07, -0.59. And they are talking about the market selling. After
hitting a higher high mid-October, oil has sold straight down, falling 10 of
12 sessions. Friday touched at the 200 day SMA and rebounded some off that
support. Quite a fall, due for a bounce to at least test the breach of the
2016 up trendline.
Gold: 1304.50, +1.20. Gold showing resilience when, as with bonds, it
should not be. Big surge Tuesday and Wednesday, pausing Thursday and
Friday, but showing doji with tail sitting on the 50 day SMA. At some
resistance but an impressive recovery and looks ready to go higher.
Okay, a ton of data and earnings out of the way, but a ton more earnings and
a bit more data to come. Oh yes, and an election on Tuesday.
As discussed in the Market Overview, many wonder what to do ahead of the
election. Predictions of a 5% or worse selloff all the way to no effect.
No one knows. So, those of us here plan on staying with good stocks in good
patterns, up and down. When they show they should be sold, we sell them.
When there is gain, we take it. When new buys appear, we make them.
Otherwise the only thing to do is just sell out of everything. We have some
stock we have held a long time through many events and have a lot of gain
in. We are not going to sell just for an election.
So, we plan on doing what we always do and we plan on making money as well.
That is the only prediction I am making.
Have a great weekend.
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5046.37
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5170 is the October intraday low.
The 50 day EMA at 5206
5221 is the 2016 up trendline
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
The 50 day SMA at 5239
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5340 is the recent all-time closing high.
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
The 200 day SMA at 4941
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
4574 is the June 2015 low
S&P 500: Closed at 2085.18
2094 is the December 2014 high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2140
The 50 day SMA at 2148
The 2016 trendline at 2169
2175 is the June 2016 high
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
The 200 day SMA at 2083
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 17,890.78
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,992 is the early September low
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
The 50 day EMA at 18,184
The 50 day SMA at 18,221
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,288 from March 2015
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,400 IS THE October recovery attempt high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
The 200 day SMA at 17,767
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
November 4 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, October (8:30): 161K actual versus 175K expected, 191K
prior (revised from 156K)
Nonfarm Private Payr, October (8:30): 142K actual versus 170K expected, 188K
prior (revised from 167K)
Hourly Earnings, October (8:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.3%
prior (revised from 0.2%)
Unemployment Rate, October (8:30): 4.9% actual versus 4.9% expected, 5.0%
prior (no revisions)
Average Workweek, October (8:30): 34.4 actual versus 34.4 expected, 34.4
prior (no revisions)
Trade Balance, September (8:30): -$36.4B actual versus -$38.5B
expected, -$40.5B prior (revised from -$40.7B)
November 7 - Monday
Consumer Credit, September (3:00): $17.5B expected, $25.9B prior
November 8 - Tuesday
JOLTS - Job Openings, September (10:00): 5.443M prior
November 9 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 11/05 (7:00): -1.2% prior
Wholesale Inventories, September (10:00): 0.2% expected, -0.2% prior
Crude Inventories, 11/05 (10:30): 14.420M prior
November 10 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 11/05 (8:30): 262K expected, 265K prior
Continuing Claims, 10/29 (8:30): 2026K prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 11/05 (10:30): 54 bcf prior
Treasury Budget, October (14:00): -$136.6B prior
November 11 - Friday
Michigan Sentiment, November Preliminary: (10:00): 87.9 expected, 87.2
End part 1 of 3
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