Sunday, November 13, 2016

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 11-12-16

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11/12/2016 Investment House Daily
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Targets hit: NVDA
Entry alerts: MU
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued

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- Dow, RUTX continue their surge, SP400 and SOX join in.
- NASDAQ and SP500 have a tougher week and an important one ahead.
- Chips trying to recover, riding NVDA's earnings.
- Big move on news. Now looking for a pause and see if it holds.

Life breathed into the market this past week, first in relief that Clinton
was sure to win as the FBI proved itself useless yet again, second with
excitement that Trump would bring growth policies back to the US. Fickle?
Of course. The market finds a reason to do what it wants. The notion of
real stimulus after 7 years of nothing but FOMC artificially low to no rates
is indeed exciting. As is the removal of regulations and taxes that have
killed the US middle class and thus its built-in source of creativity,
supply, and demand. That is worth a few stock market points.

Friday the stock indices continued higher though for some it was not a
straight shot higher and indeed, SP500 closed the session negative. NASDAQ
was up after the sharp Thursday reversal, but it was nothing that makes you
feel warm.

On the other hand, RUTX exploded higher, now less than 2 points from the
2015 all-time high. SP400 midcaps added another percent, moving past the
2015 high and on its way to challenge the September all-time high. DJ30
posted a modest move but a new high again. SOX recovered the trendline and
surpassed the late October lower high.

SP500 -3.03, -0.14%
NASDAQ 28.31, 0.54%
DJ30 39.78, 0.21%
SP400 0.99%
RUTX 2.46%
SOX 3.86%

VOLUME: NYSE -15%, NASDAQ -24%. It had to drop at some point and better it
falls on a day when DJ3, NASDAQ, and definitely SP500 did not have their
best showing of the week. Still above average, solid upside volume on the

A/D: NYSE 1.2:1, NASDAQ 2.3:1. Still not huge breadth as some areas get
money, other areas lose money.

The indices have surged all week, more or less, some areas getting much more
attention as money rotated to Trump stimulus areas and out of those that had
led the move and were dropped like hot rocks. Some opined it was something
to do with animosity between Trump and silicon valley, but that is
poppycock. The market was simply shifting to new leadership.

Now we would like to see a pause. The move was strong and if the leadership
groups show a pause or test we can use that. It may not be anything more
than a pause similar to what C did Friday; powerful moves often just need a
pause to refresh and then they go again. Thus, we will look at playing some
pauses such as more positions on C, but didn't spot a ton of those on the
early scans. There could also be some movement back into tech that was
under pressure earlier in the week. Some good setups appear.

Of course there is the possibility that the 'Clinton will win, Trump won so
let's rally anyway' rally runs out of steam. NASDAQ looks far from well and
SP500 is still challenged. If money is simply rotating, however, that
explains the uneven stock index movement. Still, after such a good run you
see how the indices test and if it is just a test. There is not much if any
fear in the market right now and that is always worth considering. A bit.

We booked some strong gain on NVDA as it surged 30% on earnings, leaving
some to continue working. Picked up some MU as the chips showed some
resilience. Didn't want to play 'chase the bus' with other positions and
will see what kind of pause/test or otherwise early next week brings. Will
there be buyer's remorse? Will there be a Wiley Coyote moment when the
rally realizes there are still mega issues facing the economy? Not likely,
so we will look for entry points in the week to come but also keep an eye
out for the edge of that cliff.



NASDAQ: Gapped upside Monday off of the dive lower and looked strong
through Wednesday. Thursday a gap higher and reversed hard, then Friday a
gain up to the 50 day SMA but a rather so-so, mediocre move. That leaves
NASDAQ both below the 50 day SMA and the 2016 trendline. NASDAQ still has a
lot of resistance, not even in the last range where the former high resides.
Critical week for NASDAQ as this past week it lost a lot of money as the
FANG and other big names sold hard. When you consider how those stocks were
pounded, NASDAQ held up pretty darn well.

SP500: The other questionable index was SP500. It surged through
Wednesday, looking strong as it matched the late September/early October
range as well as the 2016 up trendline. Thursday it showed a big doji,
giving up an early move past that resistance. Friday SP500 was lower, but
it managed to hang on with a doji. As with NASDAQ and its shaky
performance, this is a critical week for SP500.

DJ30: Still moving upside through Friday after a strong Monday to Thursday
surge. New high on the week, looking strong thanks to its financial and
industrial components.

RUTX: As powerful as the Dow, moving in on an all-time high hit in 2015.

SP400: Gapped to a doji Thursday after a strong Monday to Wednesday, the
2015 high acting as resistance. Friday a new surge took SP400 through the
2015 peak and has the midcaps just under 20 points from a new high. Now at
the gap point from early September, some resistance after a strong 90 point

SOX: Was on the ropes Thursday with a gap higher and reversal to undercut
the 50 day MA's. Then Friday a new break higher and back through the
summertime trendline. Higher high over the late October peak and looking
solid once again. Of course NVDA helped it tremendously, but other chips
are looking better as well.


Stats: +28.32 points (+0.54%) to close at 5237.11
Volume: 2.228B (-23.56%)

Up Volume: 1.63B (+220M)
Down Volume: 633.45M (-916.55M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.33 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.56 to 1

New Highs: 373 (+4)
New Lows: 58 (-19)

Stats: -3.03 points (-0.14%) to close at 2164.45
NYSE Volume: 1.2B (-15.19%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.18 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.16 to 1

New Highs: 213 (-63)
New Lows: 198 (+16)

Stats: +39.78 points (+0.21%) to close at 18847.66


VIX: 14.17; -0.57
VXN: 18.95; -0.12
VXO: 14.19; -0.99

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.07; +0.18

Back above 1.0 after one day off. 10 of 11 sessions over 1.0 on the close.
Plenty of downside speculation.

Bulls and Bears: Bears post their greatest numbers in months and stocks
then rally. Not at extreme levels either way, just working back toward each
other after diverging.

Bulls: 42.9 versus 41.7

Bears: 25.7 versus 24.3

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.

Bulls: 42.9 versus 41.7
41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6
versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3
versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus
41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4%
versus 40.2 versus 39.2

Bears: 25.7 versus 24.3
24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3
versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9%
versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus
23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0%
versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8%
versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%


Bonds (10 year): Bond market closed. 2.14% close Thursday.

Historical: 2.14% versus 2.077% versus 1.867% versus 1.83% versus 1.778%
versus 1.81% versus 1.797% versus 1.827% versus 1.83% versus 1.85% versus
1.84% versus 1.791% versus 1.76% versus 1.76% versus 1.73% versus 1.75%
versus 1.74% versus 1.74% versus 1.766% versus 1.80% versus 1.746% versus
1.78% versus 1.723% versus 1.72% versus 1.74% versus 1.72% versus 1.69%
versus 1.622% versus 1.60% versus 1.56% versus 1.569% versus 1.56% versus
1.584% versus 1.62%

EUR/USD: 1.0858 versus 1.08898. Euro bombed Wednesday to Friday but
managed to hold at the late October low on the Friday close. Perhaps a
bounce is in order.

Historical: 1.08898 versus 1.09398 versus 1.10186 versus 1.10327 versus
1.11406 versus 1.11059 versus 1.11020 versus 1.10560 versus 1.09646 versus
1.09860 versus 1.08963 versus 1.0895 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08793 versus
1.08851 versus 1.0928 versus 1.0971 versus 1.0977 versus 1.10217 versus
1.0966 versus 1.10536 versus 1.1032 versus 1.10598 versus 1.1233 versus
1.1183 versus 1.1147 versus 1.12052 versus 1.12091 versus 1.12066 versus
1.1239 versus 1.1218 versus 1.1228 versus 1.2148 versus 1.1254 versus 1.1248
versus 1.12259

USD/JPY: 106.621 versus 106.814. Broke through the 200 day SMA against the
yen last week and closed out at the July high.

Historical: 106.814 versus 105.192 versus 101.286 versus 104.386 versus
103.112 versus 102.96 versus 103.350 versus 104.042 versus 104.798 versus
104.710 versus 105.305 versus 104.412 versus 104.2110 versus 104.331 versus
103.83 versus 103.99 versus 103.99 versus 103.602 versus 103.892 versus
103.815 versus 104.201 versus 103.634 versus 103.690 versus 103.698 versus
103.95 versus 103.159 versus 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus
102.035 versus 101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55 versus
100.75 versus 101.034 versus 101.045 versus 100.386

Oil: 43.41, -1.25. Oil tried to bounce on the week but was knocked back to
a lower low and support at 43 on the Friday low.

Gold: 1224.30, -42.10. There is a lot of talk about inflation resulting
from a Trump fiscal package, but if there is inflation anticipated, gold
should be higher as a hedge. Obviously it is not that great of an inflation


NASDAQ: Closed at 5237.11

The 50 day SMA at 5238
5252 is the 2016 up trendline
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5340 is the recent all-time closing high.

5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 5207
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
The 200 day SMA at 4958
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low

S&P 500: Closed at 2164.45

2175 is the June 2016 high
The 2016 trendline at 2179
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high

The 50 day SMA at 2145
The 50 day EMA at 2142
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
The 200 day SMA at 2090
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high

Dow: Closed at 18,847.66


18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
The 50 day EMA at 18,256
18,247 is the August 2016 low
The 50 day SMA at 18,234
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
The 200 day SMA at 17,829
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak


November 11 - Friday
Michigan Sentiment, November (10:00): 91.6 actual versus 87.9 expected, 87.2

November 15 - Tuesday
Retail Sales, October (8:30): 0.6% expected, 0.6% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, October (8:30): 0.5% expected, 0.5% prior
Export Prices ex-ag., October (8:30): 0.4% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, October (8:30): 0.0% prior
Empire Manufacturing, November (8:30): -0.5 expected, -6.8 prior
Business Inventories, September (10:00): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior

November 16 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 11/12 (7:00): -1.2% prior
PPI, October (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior
Core PPI, October (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Industrial Productio, October (9:15): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Capacity Utilization, October (9:15): 75.5% expected, 75.4% prior
NAHB Housing Market , November (10:00): 64 expected, 63 prior
Crude Inventories, 11/12 (10:30): 2.432M prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, September (16:00): $48.3B prior

November 17 - Thursday
CPI, October (8:30): 0.4% expected, 0.3% prior
Core CPI, October (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Housing Starts, October (8:30): 1178K expected, 1047K prior
Building Permits, October (8:30): 1200K expected, 1225K prior
Initial Claims, 11/12 (8:30): 257K expected, 254K prior
Continuing Claims, 11/05 (8:30): 2041K prior
Philadelphia Fed, November (8:30): 7.0 expected, 9.7 prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 11/12 (10:30): 54 bcf prior

End part 1 of 3
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