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11/19/2016 Investment House Daily
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Monday, Tuesday: Normal reports
Wednesday: Market statistics updates, play tables
Thursday: No report
Weekend: Market statistics updates, play tables
Targets hit: LRCX; MAN
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
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of the day of the week.
- More of the same as SOX, RUTX surge.
- DJ30 actually taking a breather as NASDAQ and SP500 make important tests
of the prior highs.
- Even as some early leaders test, other sectors are breaking higher.
- Market showing plenty of leadership as money rotates through the sectors.
- Shorter week with Thanksgiving may not show a definitive change.
DJ30 rallies 5.8% off its pre-election low, SP400 9%. There was supposed
to be a market crash. Wish it had as our plan was to buy the selloff. But
not. Ford announces it will not move its Kentucky plant to Mexico after
all. Apple says it is considering manufacturing iPhones in the US. What
happens next? Mexico agrees to a wall? Hey, it might happen, just not
between the US and Mexico but between Mexico and Central America. And maybe
the US will HELP pay for that one. Nothing seems too crazy right now, does
it? Or maybe it seems crazy, but that is not stopping it from happening.
We will see. Friday the market, at least part of it, finally took a
breather. DJ30 is working on a lateral move, holding its gains. The rest
of the market, however, continues higher with SOX leading the way with its
surge upside. RUTX as well.
SP500 -5.22, -0.24%
NASDAQ -12.46, -0.23%
DJ30 -35.89, -0.19%
VOLUME: NYSE +5%, NASDAQ -12%
A/D: NYSE -1.2:1, NASDAQ +1.2:1. Yes, pretty atrocious breadth but some
solid moves, e.g. semiconductors.
Money is chasing sectors, just not all at once. Thus some pretty weak
breadth but some pretty strong moves in groups of stocks such as the chips
and some techs last week. This while industrial equipment/machinery,
metals, financials -- the early leaders post-election -- consolidate the
gains. Heck, some are already in position to move higher after their tests,
e.g. BAC, LLNW, FCX -- there are a few.
There is quite a bit of talk about the rally being a one-hit wonder, a surge
that burns itself out. That may turn out to be the case, but looking at
sector after sector, stock after stock this weekend we see stocks not
rolling over but consolidating, setting up for their next moves upside. Of
course even as they do this, other stocks are surging as already noted.
Not that anything has changed yet, at least substantively. What we are
noticing, however, is a lot of new activity that is apparently in
anticipation of growth to come. Even CNBC commentators who are more left
leaning were describing optimism at the prospect of economic growth versus 8
years of no growth. That is the way they put it, not me.
I have talked with many small business heads who say that the phone is
ringing with customers planning to produce more, buy more, etc., all in
anticipation of growth. The ironic thing is that can be the very thing that
ignites it, then the tax changes, regulatory rollbacks, agency stand down
orders give it the fuel to really take hold and surge. We will see.
SOX: Surging 6 of 8 sessions to a new post-2000 high, adding another 0.67%
Friday. Some great moves from NVDA, LRCX, MU, and company is fueling the
chips upside. When the other indices started to take a breather, SOX hit
RUTX: The small caps are fairly incredible. Eleven straight upside
sessions off the low from early November. At some point it has to run low
on gas and take a breather. Has not come to that point yet.
SP400: The midcaps rose 9 of 10 sessions prior to Friday. Managed a gain
to end the week but gapped to a tight doji. May be out of gas near term but
has not shown it. Likely tests before too long. A test of the last peak in
September at 1580ish would be pretty normal.
NASDAQ: After a 3-day rest through Monday, NASDAQ rallied to test the prior
high from September. Broke it on the Friday high, just could not hold it.
Faded to a modest loss on lower volume. Okay, a very critical test for
NASDAQ. It has made it to the prior highs similar to the dog catching the
car. Now what? A modest test through Wednesday and then a new break higher
would be great.
SP500: A solid, if on again off again, rally after the 3 day lateral test
into Monday. Rallied to the 2016 trendline on the Thursday and Friday
highs, faded to a loss Friday. SP500 is at the August all-time highs, and
similar to NASDAQ, after that consolidation that gave it the strength to
rally to this point, it now has to show it can break on through.
DJ30: After that surge higher into this past week, the Dow is testing and
resting, moving in a very tight lateral move, refusing to give up ground.
Many financial and metals stocks show the same action, moving laterally in a
tight range, being stingy with their gains.
Big Names: The FAANG still struggle overall but some rebounds. FB bombed
Monday but recovered to test the 200 day SMA Friday. AMZN rebounded all
week off its bomb lower, showing a tombstone doji Friday below the 20 day
EMA. AAPL bounced off the 200 day SMA. NFLX sold to the 50 day EMA, held
it, and is working laterally, trying to make the break higher. GOOG
recovered off its Monday selloff below the 200 day SMA, making it back to
the 50 day EMA.
Metals: Tight lateral moves post-surge. AKS, FCX -- setting up for new
Financial: Tight lateral moves for many here as well. BAC, JPM, GS, STT.
Chips: Solid moves. LRCX hit the target, faded back some. NVDA still
rallying. MU breaking higher again. AMAT as well. XLNX making a 1-2-3
Internet: LLNW testing a nice move. LIVE moved well last week.
Software: Some good moves and continued good setups. RHT surged though was
off Friday. BLKB has a good setup. VMW moved well last week. FFIV still
trending up the 10 day EMA.
Oil: Some still solid setups and moves. WLL working well. APC holding
support. RIG rallying nicely last week. PDS in great position to move
Biotech: Some big names still look solid, e.g. BIIB, CELG.
Stats: -12.46 points (-0.23%) to close at 5321.51
Volume: 1.826B (-12.3%)
Up Volume: 972.62M (-397.38M)
Down Volume: 854.27M (+178.52M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.18 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.6 to 1
New Highs: 287 (-10)
New Lows: 42 (+2)
Stats: -5.22 points (-0.24%) to close at 2181.9
NYSE Volume: 900M (+5.19%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.12 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.11 to 1
New Highs: 149 (-25)
New Lows: 128 (+34)
Stats: -35.89 points (-0.19%) to close at 18867.93
VIX: 12.85; -0.5
VXN: 15.51; -0.51
VXO: 12.91; -0.31
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.94; +0.07
11 of 16 sessions over 1.0 on the close. 4 of 5 sessions back below 1.0
after a long streak over 1.0 on the close. That gave plenty of upside
impetus and the market is using it.
Bulls and Bears: Bears post their greatest numbers in months and stocks
then rally. Not at extreme levels either way, just working back toward each
other after diverging.
Bulls: 51.0 versus 42.9
Bears: 23.5 versus 25.7
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 51.0 versus 42.9
42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2
versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2
versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1%
versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus
35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 23.5 versus 25.7
25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1
versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0
versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus
24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7%
versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7%
versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus
Bonds (10 year): 2.34% versus 2.297%. Bonds continue to sell off here and
around the world. China, Saudi Arabia selling US Treasuries for their own
economic struggle reasons while Japan is buying its own bonds and US bonds
for its own economic struggles.
Historical: 2.297% versus 2.219% versus 2.22% versus 2.23% versus 2.14%
versus 2.077% versus 1.867% versus 1.83% versus 1.778% versus 1.81% versus
1.797% versus 1.827% versus 1.83% versus 1.85% versus 1.84% versus 1.791%
versus 1.76% versus 1.76% versus 1.73% versus 1.75% versus 1.74% versus
1.74% versus 1.766% versus 1.80% versus 1.746% versus 1.78% versus 1.723%
versus 1.72% versus 1.74% versus 1.72% versus 1.69% versus 1.622% versus
1.60% versus 1.56% versus 1.569% versus 1.56% versus 1.584% versus 1.62%
EUR/USD: 1.0587 versus 1.06500. Euro getting crushed the past two weeks.
Historical: 1.0650 versus 1.07026 versus 1.0725 versus 1.07492 versus 1.0858
versus 1.08898 versus 1.09398 versus 1.10186 versus 1.10327 versus 1.11406
versus 1.11059 versus 1.11020 versus 1.10560 versus 1.09646 versus 1.09860
versus 1.08963 versus 1.0895 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08851
versus 1.0928 versus 1.0971 versus 1.0977 versus 1.10217 versus 1.0966
versus 1.10536 versus 1.1032 versus 1.10598 versus 1.1233 versus 1.1183
versus 1.1147 versus 1.12052 versus 1.12091 versus 1.12066 versus 1.1239
versus 1.1218 versus 1.1228 versus 1.2148 versus 1.1254 versus 1.1248 versus
USD/JPY: 110.905 versus 110.240. Still surging against the yen
Historical: 110.240 versus 109.07 versus 108.164 versus 107.455 versus
106.621 versus 106.814 versus 105.192 versus 101.286 versus 104.386 versus
103.112 versus 102.96 versus 103.350 versus 104.042 versus 104.798 versus
104.710 versus 105.305 versus 104.412 versus 104.2110 versus 104.331 versus
103.83 versus 103.99 versus 103.99 versus 103.602 versus 103.892 versus
103.815 versus 104.201 versus 103.634 versus 103.690 versus 103.698 versus
103.95 versus 103.159 versus 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus
102.035 versus 101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55 versus
100.75 versus 101.034 versus 101.045 versus 100.386
Oil: 46.36, +0.38. Continuing its recovery off the 200 day SMA test but
still a dog fight and the going is slow. More hope for an OPEC deal was
said to help Friday. Really needs it given a certain shale formation in the
Permian Basin is said to hold billions more barrels of oil. Billions. 10
to 20 billion.
Gold: 1208.70, -8.20. Gold tried to bounce early week, has failed, falling
to a lower low on this selling, though holding the mid-summer low. As noted
before, if inflation is supposed to result from the proposed economic plans,
why is gold selling while stocks related to growth surge? Because the
Phillips Curve the Fed and most 'in vogue' economists use is simply wrong.
Wrong, wrong, wrong.
After the launch higher pre- and post-election you would expect the stock
indices to test. RUTX and SP400 have been juggernauts, surging on a
stronger dollar and the prospect of improved business. Sure some carp about
the stronger dollar impacting earnings, but those are the big multinationals
that have had all the breaks, all of the favored regulations in this current
economy. The prospect of actual growth has shot the smaller cap stocks
Again, after such a surge you would expect a test. As noted, SP500 and
NASDAQ are at important tests of prior highs and this week will show their
strength in whether they test and if so, how they test.
Thing is, the stock sectors are testing, they are just doing it within the
overall indices. Financials, metals are holding their gains as they
consolidate while other groups push higher, e.g. software and chips. That
keeps the indices elevated even as they 'test.'
So, instead of expecting a pullback across the board we are looking at
stocks that are set up to move higher for new opportunities even as others
that led the charge consolidate. As noted earlier, some of those early
leaders are already in position to move higher again after their
Obviously we are looking at those for next week. Some can test farther
before they are ready, but the patterns are solid and we want to be ready of
they go ahead on and rally early week. Don't want to chase the bus but
instead by ready.
It is also Thanksgiving week with the market closed Thursday and open a half
session Friday. That may put a lid on the action upside or downside, but in
the past Thanksgiving week has delivered some fireworks. If we see some
good moves we will play them.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5321.51
5340 is the September all-time closing high.
5309 is the late October lower high
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5275 is the 2016 up trendline
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
The 50 day SMA at 5243
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 5222
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
The 200 day SMA at 4978
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
4574 is the June 2015 low
S&P 500: Closed at 2181.90
The 2016 trendline at 2188
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
2175 is the June 2016 high
The 10 day EMA at 2165
The 50 day EMA at 2148
The 50 day SMA at 2146
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
The 200 day SMA at 2096
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 18,867.93
The 10 day EMA at 18,713
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
The 50 day EMA at 18,370
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
The 50 day SMA at 18,280
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
The 200 day SMA at 17,893
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
November 22 - Tuesday
Existing Home Sales, October (10:00): 5.40M expected, 5.47M prior
November 23 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 11/19 (7:00): -9.2% prior
Continuing Claims, 11/12 (8:30)
Durable Orders, October (8:30): -0.1% prior
Initial Claims, 11/19 (8:30): 243K expected, 235K prior
Continuing Claims, 11/12 (8:30): 1977K prior
Durable Orders, Ex- , October (8:30): 0.2% prior
Durable Orders, October (8:30): 1.1% expected, -0.1% prior
Durable Orders, Ex- , October (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.2% prior
FHFA Housing Price I, September (9:00): 0.7% prior
Michigan Sentiment -, November (10:00)
New Home Sales, October (10:00): 587K expected, 593K prior
Michigan Sentiment -, November (10:00): 91.6 expected, 91.6 prior
Crude Inventories, 11/19 (10:30): 5.274M prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 11/19 (10:30): 30 bcf prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 11/19 (24:00): 30 bcf prior
FOMC Minutes, November 2 (14:00)
November 24 - Thursday
Continuing Claims, 11/12 (8:30)
Initial Claims, 11/19 (8:30)
Natural Gas Inventor, 11/19 (10:30)
November 25 - Friday
International Trade , October (8:30): -$56.1B prior
Advance Wholesale In, October (8:30): 0.2% expected, +0.2% prior
End part 1 of 3
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