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10/29/2016 Investment House Daily
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Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: FCX
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
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links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
- Week shows the indices diverge more, Friday NASDAQ shows some risk.
- Q3 GDP beats but 2.9% is, sorry, full of beans. Soy beans.
- The indices bias is lower but there is still upside leadership
- Market almost frozen by election. Almost.
- What happens after the election? Predictions are full of beans.
Talk about divergences. Thursday I wrote about the index divergence growing
with SP400 joining RUTX below the September lows while SOX held its up
trendline. Friday it was a different kind. From a Q3 GDP beat pre-market
announced less than 2 weeks from a national election to an afternoon FBI
revelation that new evidence was discovered regarding the Clinton email
Stocks had overcome some early weakness to post decent gains. When the news
hit they tumbled into negative territory in reaction, then spent the
afternoon recovering some lost ground. The market was confused regarding
the impact of this news and traded accordingly. In short, basically no
change from Thursday.
SP500 -6.63, -0.31%
NASDAQ -25.87, -0.50%
DJ30 -8.49, -0.05%
VOLUME: NYSE flat; NASDAQ flat. Talk about pulling back on the news in a
wait and see posture. Indeed after the news hit and the volume jump as the
market sold, volume dried up. Even so, it was still above average volume on
both NASDAQ and NYSE.
A/D: NYSE -1.5:1, NASDAQ -1.4:1
The indices did not show any real change on the session, but that was not
the case on the week.
NASDAQ tested deeper, closing below the 50 day MA's Thursday and then below
the 2016 up trendline on Friday.
SP400 and RUTX made key breaks below the range lows, specifically the
September low, on the week, trading flat with doji Friday.
SP500 faded on the week, but had held the 2015 high, the prior all-time
high. Friday SP500 let that go, selling down to the September low on the
session low then managed to recover some of the loss.
DJ30 did what it did each session last week: tested the 50 day EMA on the
high and then faded from that resistance. The Dow has not, however, broken
lower and is indeed tightening its range. After gapping higher Monday off
of the 50 day SMA,
SOX spent the rest of the week moving laterally in an up and down range. It
is still holding its trendline, in reality the only index holding the near
term trend after Friday.
On the week the action tilts toward a more negative bias with RUTX and SP400
breaking below the September low. NASDAQ is at the lick log, breaking the
50 day MA's and the January trendline. The others are holding on in the
ranges or trend as the case may be.
Negative, but the big boys (or girls if you want) have not broken and indeed
DJ30 has tightened its range, refusing to sell back with the other indices.
In short, the bias may be tipped more negative, but it has not fallen to
negative for the entire market.
With the Fed out there and its friends in central banks from other countries
ready to buy whenever there is a problem, perhaps that is why the market has
not dropped. Heck, maybe they were in the action after the FBI
announcement. Won't know that until Yellen's phone logs are released, IF
they don't scrub them now after the February log showed the calls to the BOE
and the ECB with sharp market rebounds within a half hour after each of
Thus we did not do a lot on the session. Picked up FCX on a good break
higher but with this news breaking we did not move into other new positions,
preferring to wait until next week to see how this comes out in the
political and market watch. It could be a wild weekend or it could be just
another weekend and new week in a market working through earnings while the
Fed stands in the background.
2.9% Q3 GDP! Kind of. Seems Atlanta was closer, but not that close.
Q3 GDP, 1st read: 2.9% versus 2.5% expected versus 1.4% Q2
Real GDP year/year: 1.5 lousy percent.
Consumption: 2.1% versus 2.6% expected versus 4.3% Q2
Real final sales: 1.4% versus 2.4% Q2
Shocking. Stunning. How is it possible that GDP did not top 3% with the
election just 11 days hence?
Seems impressive enough. The range of expectations was mostly in the low to
mid 2% range. But, I have been in a 3% economy. I know what a 3% economy
is. This is no 3% economy.
Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was
a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy. Lloyd Bentsen,
democratic VP candidate, 1988.
Of course, a 3% economy is hardly a recovery economy. If it were sustained
after the 5%, 7%, 9% quarterly growth in a REAL recovery, then it would not
be bad. A one-off quarter in a series of 1% quarters is no recovery. Hell,
it wasn't even 3% that they reported.
There is, as always, the real story. Here it is. It is not nice. It is
The breakdown: What the components added to the GDP bottom line.
Government spending +0.5%
Personal Consumption: +1.47% (housing, utilities, healthcare led the way)
Fixed Investment: -0.1%. Four straight quarters of declining capital
investment (-2.7% for the quarter)
The surge in exports was led by a surge in soybean sales. The South
American crop (Venezuela, Brazil), typically is the largest in the world.
It is horrible this year. Thus the US sold a huge amount of bean. So much
so that bean alone made up 0.9% of the 2.9%, or, without bean, GDP was 2.0%.
Then, if you take out higher rent prices that really don't deliver bottom
line quality of life improvements, utilities price increases that drain
disposable income (burning money similar to gasoline), and surging
healthcare services costs thanks to the Affordable Care Act, and GDP came
home at 0.9%.
Let's reiterate. Take out a one-time surge in exports thanks to South
America's bean woes, take out forced spending on healthcare, take out rent
and utilities inflation, and you lop off most of the gain over Q2.
That is why the alterations in CPI, GDP, Jobs Report, etc. are rendering the
data meaningless. 2.9% GDP today is 1% GDP 30 years ago. Today it is a
mass of esoteric calculations that bear no semblance to reality.
Bottom line: GDP was at best 2.0% getting rid of the one-off bean sales.
If you look at items that actually generate 'product,' you are at 1% or
less. That is not a healthy economy.
A weak that saw the stock indices diverge with the small and midcap indices
breaking below the trading range while SOX continued in fine form. NASDAQ
broke its trend but did not smash it; there is still life there. SP500 is
at the bottom of the range while DJ30 is looking surprisingly resilient even
if it cannot get through the 50 day EMA.
NASDAQ: After gapping higher Monday to just below the September/October
highs, NASDAQ sold back. Tuesday on into Friday with volume kicking back
above average Thursday and Friday. First above average volume in fourteen
sessions and it was on the downside. And what was the action the last time
volume was above average? The sharp break lower from the October high that
matched the September high. In that selling NASDAQ broke the 50 day MA's
and on Friday the 2016 trendline that started in January.
No lower low yet, but NASDAQ is playing off a lower high hit Monday.
Declining MACD, higher selling volume, lower high. Negative bias but has
not broken down. Yet.
SOX: Gapped higher Monday as well but then could not advance the ball.
Worked laterally into Friday, selling into the gap from Monday, closing the
week at the 20 day EMA. Still trending upside but needs to hold here to try
and beat that September high or else it finds itself in NASDAQ's boat: lower
high, lower MACD on the September high, facing a quick test of the 50 day
MA's after just bouncing off of them on the Monday move. So far holding the
trend and quite comfortably, but showing the same history as NASDAQ before
RUTX: Dubious honor of being the first NYSE index to break the September
low that marked the bottom of the range. Sold Tuesday through Friday though
Friday showing a doji, suggesting a big oversold -- unless the other NYSE
indices join in next week. On the move RUTX broke below the July to early
August consolidation, thus breaking two levels of support on the week. Did
hold near the June peak, some consolation.
SP400: Thursday the midcaps joined RUTX below the September low. Friday
they were flat with a hammer doji. SP400 is now back near the lows of the
early 2015 range. Looking bigger picture, SP400 broke to a new high in
early September on lower MACD and weak volume. Then it broke the trend with
a sharp drop. At some potential support now, but if the large cap NYSE
indices that are struggling, e.g. SP500, breaks, it could get ugly.
SP500: Speaking of the large caps, SP500 struggled on the week as well. It
too gapped upside Monday, moving just over the 50 day EMA but just below the
January 2016 up trendline. From there it was downhill, selling Tuesday,
gapping lower Wednesday, gapping higher then reversing ugly on Thursday,
followed by a gap lower Friday. Friday SP500 sold to the early September
lows but managed to rebound 7 points off the intraday low. That broke SP500
below its 2015 prior all-time high. It had avoided that on several tests,
but now is where it was 10 sessions back. It jumped off that level and
rallied to Monday. We will see what kind of pop is left at this level.
DJ30: A bit volatile, but compared to prior weeks a tiptoe through the
tulips. DJ30 has had issues at the 50 day EMA, i.e. it really struggles to
get through it. Last week it touched the 50 day EMA every session, starting
with the Monday upside gap. It failed to hold a move through it but also
failed to break down. 8 of the past 11 sessions DJ30 has touched the 50 day
EMA and faded back. Again, it has not broken down. That suggests some
resilience that could possible lead to a bounce. MACD has been rising the
past three weeks . . . we will see.
Financial: With the Fed rate hike chances 74+%, financials are working.
Pullbacks Friday, but a solid week. C tested the 20 day EMA and rebounded.
BAC testing 10 day EMA. TCBI in an excellent 10 day EMA test. Ditto MS.
Chips: Showing some heaviness. After showing great strength Monday with a
gap and run, AVGO turned down and Friday broke below the 50 day EMA. SWKS
dropped from the 20 day EMA to the 50 day EMA in one Friday move. SLAB broke
higher Tuesday, is back at the 10 day EMA. MRVL broke higher Wednesday but
faded the move right back to the start. MU very similar: up then faded the
move. Not a lot of breaks lower but definitely some heaviness in some big
names. On the other hand, stocks such as PXLW are sporting some nice
Metals: A good week. FCX continued a break higher. SID up most of the
week, breaking through the upper trendline. AKS, CENX, gapped lower
Thursday but held support. STLD not bad.
Big Names: Getting ragged and definitely impacting NASDAQ. AMZN gapped
below the 50 day MA's on its bottom line miss. AAPL gapped lower Wednesday
after its earnings and didn't recover, new Mac Book or no. FB was on a
surge through Monday then turned the entire move over. Tried to rally Friday
but gave most of it up. NFLX spent the week moving laterally after the
earnings gap and run. GOOG was holding up post earnings, gapping higher,
but it fumbled the move.
Tech: MSFT continued its earnings gap then put in an excellent test of the
gap and 10 day EMA. WDC gapped upside on earnings but could not hold a move
past the September high. STX survived earnings but could not benefit from
them. Looks heavy. RHT still in a decent pattern after BLKB imploded. PANW
still looks good.
Retail: Restaurants showed more interesting. BWLD bounced on earnings and
is in pretty good position. CAKE gapped on earnings then faded, but Friday
rallied nicely. PNRA gapped sharply higher then sold off after earnings
only to bounce nicely Friday. There are possibilities here though other
retail is problematic, e.g. department stores though KSS is not bad. TJX
may be ready to bounce off the lows as MACD rises. COST struggling.
Energy: Most oil stocks struggled on the week as oil struggled. APA
testing the 50 day EMA; not bad. Ditto APC. SYRG struggled late week.
SWN, SPN, COG, GPOR all are bombing. PTEN is not bad, putting in a test.
Stats: -25.87 points (-0.5%) to close at 5190.1
Volume: 1.891B (+0.3%)
Up Volume: 708.27M (+158.94M)
Down Volume: 1.09B (-250M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.4 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.99 to 1
New Highs: 54 (-11)
New Lows: 145 (+18)
Stats: -6.63 points (-0.31%) to close at 2126.41
NYSE Volume: 1B (0%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.49 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.63 to 1
New Highs: 51 (-23)
New Lows: 79 (+6)
Stats: -8.49 points (-0.05%) to close at 18161.19
VIX: 16.19; +0.83
VXN: 18.23; +0.9
VXO: 17.16; +0.88
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.11; +0.27. After commenting how the put/call
ratio had not risen given the selling, it jumps over 1.0.
20 1.0+ Readings in 6 weeks, 16 of the last 35 sessions over 1.0. After a 2
week string of readings less than 1.0, finally a move over. The
significance is the streak below 1.0 even as the market turned more volatile
day to day. Breaking back over shows a change in mentality toward worry,
though not that much given just 1 session.
Bulls and Bears: As volatile as the day to day back and forth in the
indices. Bulls jumped back up and bears fell back to the level two weeks
prior. Still, well off the 59ish that bulls hit on the last run higher.
Bulls: 47.1 versus 42.9.
Bears: 23.1 versus 23.8
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1
42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5
versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9%
versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus
45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1
23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8
versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6%
versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus
23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6%
versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9%
versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
Bonds (10 year): 1.85% versus 1.84%. After bombing lower Thursday in a
plunge from the 10 day/200 day SMA, bonds more or less held position.
Historical: 1.84% versus 1.791% versus 1.76% versus 1.76% versus 1.73%
versus 1.75% versus 1.74% versus 1.74% versus 1.766% versus 1.80% versus
1.746% versus 1.78% versus 1.723% versus 1.72% versus 1.74% versus 1.72%
versus 1.69% versus 1.622% versus 1.60% versus 1.56% versus 1.569% versus
1.56% versus 1.584% versus 1.62%
EUR/USD: 1.09860 versus 1.08963. Euro surged upside off the 3 week plunge
to a lower low.
Historical: 1.08963 versus 1.0895 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08793 versus
1.08851 versus 1.0928 versus 1.0971 versus 1.0977 versus 1.10217 versus
1.0966 versus 1.10536 versus 1.1032 versus 1.10598 versus 1.1233 versus
1.1183 versus 1.1147 versus 1.12052 versus 1.12091 versus 1.12066 versus
1.1239 versus 1.1218 versus 1.1228 versus 1.2148 versus 1.1254 versus 1.1248
USD/JPY: 104.710 versus 105.305. Dollar continued higher, reaching at the
200 day SMA, but then it slide back to the 10 day EMA, giving up the move.
Still a solid move higher.
Historical: 105.305 versus 104.412 versus 104.2110 versus 104.331 versus
103.83 versus 103.99 versus 103.99 versus 103.602 versus 103.892 versus
103.815 versus 104.201 versus 103.634 versus 103.690 versus 103.698 versus
103.95 versus 103.159 versus 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus
102.035 versus 101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55 versus
100.75 versus 101.034 versus 101.045 versus 100.386
Oil: 48.70, -1.02. Dropping farther as oil continues its 1.5 week pullback
toward the 50 day MA's.
Gold: 1276.80, +7.30. Still trying to improve its lot and indeed moving
over the 200 day SMA. Three week recovery up the 200 day SMA, finally
showing more strength.
Last full week before the election. Thank goodness. It is also Jobs Report
week. Let's see, GDP 2.9% but full of beans, how about a jobs report
stuffed with some minimum wage jobs and more people looking for full-time
jobs but being disappointed? Hey, it is just the headlines that matter.
The market eroded its bias the past week with two indices breaking the range
and NASDAQ cracking its uptrend. Overall the market is still holding,
however, and there is still leadership. The election is having its impact,
keeping things relatively stagnant as the polls tighten and no one really
knows the outcome or for that matter what the outcome means to the markets.
There are assumptions floating around, promoted by the likes of Mark Cuban,
that crashes are possible, flood, fire, earthquakes, all manner of
pestilence, mass hysteria, dogs sleeping with cats, etc.
Mayor: What does he mean biblical?
Dr. Raymond Stantz (Aykroyd): What he means is Old Testament, real wrath of
God type stuff. Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies, rivers and
Dr. Egon Spengler (Ramis): Forty years of darkness, earthquakes, volcanoes .
Winston (Ernie Hudson): Dead rising from the grave . . .
Dr. Peter Venkman (Murray): Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together,
Oh, and earnings. More earnings. Lots more. Thus far, not that
enthralling. Some good moves but some big misses. All the while the
indices are really not going anywhere, and indeed the small and midcaps
broke down during the results.
Okay, maybe the big cap indices are just biding time waiting for the
election, and nothing short of war -- well we already have that -- okay,
nothing short of a new election crisis -- well we have that also, don't we?
Okay, maybe nothing will change the market before the election.
And afterward? I believe no one knows. Opinions are so heavily prejudiced
by the passions on each side that any prediction is bunk. Cuban is full of
crap and he knows it. Even he doesn't buy half the stuff he shovels. That
is what makes him fun.
At this point you can quit trading and buying for longer term or you can
take advantage of the plays. We banked some good money this week but got
punched a few times as well. Still some really nice setups out there that
we will take advantage of if they make the moves.
Personally, it looks downside from our perspective, and that has nothing to
do with the election, just what the patterns are showing. The large caps
are not giving up, however, if NASDAQ goes (the big names did not look good
to end the week) after breaking its trend, SP500 likely goes with it.
Of course the Fed is always there in the shadows, the silent, silent partner
that always talks a semi-tough game but has a hard time putting the game
plan into play. Any selling and it will proceed to further solidify the
moral hazard of propping up markets.
In any event we will focus on the setups and see which way the leaders go
and be ready. There are some groups that sold but are trying to make a
turn; seen that before many times. Despite our view the downside is taking
over, you cannot assume that is the case. Once you do you can get
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5190.10
5211 is the 2016 up trendline
The 50 day EMA at 5228
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
The 50 day SMA at 5252
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5340 is the recent all-time closing high.
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
The 200 day SMA at 4925
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
4574 is the June 2015 low
S&P 500: Closed at 2126.41
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2148
The 50 day SMA at 2156
The 2016 trendline at 2160
2175 is the June 2016 high
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
The 200 day SMA at 2077
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 18,207.89
The 50 day EMA at 18,230
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
The 50 day SMA at 18,274
18,288 from March 2015
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,400 IS THE October recovery attempt high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,960 is the October low
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
The 200 day SMA at 17,717
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
October 28 - Friday
Chain Deflator-Adv., Q3 (8:30): 2.3% prior
GDP-Adv., Q3 (8:30): 2.9% actual versus 2.5% expected, 1.4% prior (no
Chain Deflator-Adv., Q3 (8:30): 1.5% actual versus 1.4% expected, 2.3% prior
Employment Cost Inde, Q3 (8:30): 0.6% actual versus 0.6% expected, 0.6%
prior (no revisions)
Michigan Sentiment -, October (10:00): 87.2 actual versus 88.2 expected,
87.9 prior (no revisions)
October 31 - Monday
Personal Income, September (8:30): 0.4% expected, 0.2% prior
Personal Spending, September (8:30): 0.5% expected, 0.0% prior
Core PCE Price Index, September (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Chicago PMI, October (9:45): 54.0 expected, 54.2 prior
November 1 - Tuesday
ISM Index, October (10:00): 51.7 expected, 51.5 prior
Construction Spendin, September (10:00): 0.5% expected, -0.7% prior
Auto Sales, October (14:00): 5.30M prior
Truck Sales, October (14:00): 8.85M prior
November 2 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 10/29 (7:00): -4.1% prior
ADP Employment Chang, October (8:15): 165K expected, 154K prior
Crude Inventories, 10/29 (10:30): -0.553M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, November (14:00): 0.375% expected, 0.375% prior
November 3 - Thursday
Challenger Job Cuts, October (7:30): -24.7% prior
Initial Claims, 10/29 (8:30): 256K expected, 258K prior
Continuing Claims, 10/22 (8:30): 2039K prior
Unit Labor Costs, Q3 (8:30): 1.2% expected, 4.3% prior
Productivity-Prel, Q3 (8:30): 1.8% expected, -0.6% prior
Unit Labor Costs, Q3 (8:30): 1.2% expected, 4.3% prior
Factory Orders, September (10:00): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
ISM Services, October (10:00): 55.8 expected, 57.1 prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 10/29 (10:30): 73 bcf prior
November 4 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, October (8:30): 175K expected, 156K prior
Nonfarm Private Payr, October (8:30): 170K expected, 167K prior
Hourly Earnings, October (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.2% prior
Unemployment Rate, October (8:30): 4.9% expected, 5.0% prior
Average Workweek, October (8:30): 34.4 expected, 34.4 prior
Trade Balance, September (8:30): -$38.5B expected, -$40.7B prior
End part 1 of 3
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