Sunday, October 02, 2016

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 10-1-16

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10/1/2016 Investment House Daily
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Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued

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- DB to get a reduced DOJ fine. All must be well.
- Stocks rebound as the volatility continues.
- Fed, Central banks now appear to want to avoid any kind of market selloff
as Yellen talks of direct equity buys.
- Still leaders emerging, but prefer a resolution of the volatility to a
trend to get really deeply involved.


I almost did not send out a market summary this weekend. I sat down and
wrote what transpired and why. I took it to its logical end. I realized it
was just too gloomy to send out and got up and left it. I thought about it
and decided to send it even if I am accused of being a gloom spreader. Not
one where the market crashes, but one telling that the market no longer
prices in real value of companies, but instead what value the monetary
policy planners put on the financial assets (stocks) related to those
companies and the logical results of that. So, be forewarned.

The Action, the Friday theme

Thursday's angst surrounding DB was all forgotten Friday. Things did not
look so bad on the day and indeed got better. A rumor hit shortly after the
open that DB was going to strike a deal with the US DOJ for less than the
$14+B the DOJ needed for 'justice.' About a third of the full amount
($5.4B). Not long after a French news outlet claimed to confirm the report.
Stock markets rejoiced. Surely the $8.5B drop in one fine is going to make
all the difference for DB.

Okay, it doesn't hurt, but it is not the cure for it, for Commerze Bank, or
for The Netherlands' ING bank that Friday was reported set to announce
massive layoffs at its Monday shareholders' meeting. DB's near term CDS
protection rates are still increasing. No one we have heard of is ready to
return funds they just removed for safety. Friday was a reprieve, and we
will see how much of one in the week(s) ahead. It may already be starting
as Saturday Italy charged DB with market manipulation and, taking a lead
from Wells Fargo perhaps, creating false accounts.

The reprieve helped the US markets. Stocks loved it and rallied nicely,
spurting to the upside on the rumor and the 'confirmation.'

SP500 17.14, 0.80%
NASDAQ 42.85, 0.81%
DJ30 164.70, 0.91%
SP400 0.82%
RUTX 1.12%
SOX 1.58%

VOLUME: NYSE 21.33%; NASDAQ 5%. Volume increased sharply on the session,
but that likely had more to do with the end of the quarter versus any new
surge in buying.

A/D: NYSE 2.4:1, NASDAQ 2.6:1

Financial stocks recovered the Thursday flop. Many same leaders continued
to lead. Many that fell Thursday did not recover. SOX powered to a new
post-2000 high. NASDAQ recovered the 10 day EMA and is continuing its trend
though it still has not recovered to post-FOMC high. SP500, DJ30, SP400
recovered to where they were Wednesday, for the most part, but that isn't
saying much for those indices.

Indeed, they are still in bearish patterns. Back and forth volatility after
breaking lower three Fridays back. DJ30 broke lower from those three tops
and has recovered to a bear flag. SP400 broke its July/September trend but
managed to hold a longer term trendline as it sold. It has recovered some
lost ground but is still below the 50 day MA's. SP500 has recovered the gap
lower three Fridays back, at least on the post-FOMC rally, but it gave it up
and in this week's recovery it is still below its 50 day SMA.

The New Normal: Central Bank market management

These are not great patterns, but this is an insane market because . . . the
Fed and central banks are steadily and unrepentantly overstepping their
limits prescribed by law. Can you imagine the Federal Reserve going into
the open stock market and buying equities as Janet Yellen said it could if
there was another crisis? Do these people not realize they are not mandated
to take any action on earth to forestall natural market declines?

Oh perhaps they do realize this, but they also realize that they have built
new market highs on no capital investment, no growth in real business, and a
plethora of low paying jobs that have dropped the US standard of living,
driving the middle class to below 50% with only 48% of workers in the US
holding full time jobs. And the really tough pill to swallow is that many
of those full time employees are working for wages much less than they made
at their full time jobs they lost in the last recession. Thus spending and
investing power is way down. The Fed knows this; that is why it has hacked
down its long-term growth forecasts for GDP and says 100K jobs per month is
all that is needed to absorb new workers.

With that track record they know there is a bubble in asset valuations
vis- -vis the actual output created. If the market starts to price in the
real output then prices have to head much, much lower. It strains credulity
that after Q3 results are in we will know that corporate profits have
declined for 6 quarters and yet the stock market is hitting new all-time
highs. That does not happen. That is the hands of the central banks.

The markets were rolling over in August and September 2015, but the Fed
entered, setting up a perfect double bottom. We saw it and there was a lot
of money made. Then the January and February 2016 selloff to lower lows
after failing to reach the prior highs from the late 2015 selling. The
market was in a death roll but Yellen called the BOE and the selling stopped
for that day and rebounded. The next morning she called Draghi at the ECB
and the market shot higher that day as well, a mere 30 minutes after the
phone call ended. Magic.

This was not even a full-blown crisis, just a market making a natural
correction from a long run. It is the same progression as always: a crisis
leads to extraordinary means, but then the extraordinary means remain and
are used when there is not even a crisis situation. The Fed and central
banks start believing the markets need them to work properly. Once you go
down that slippery slope of logic it is incredibly hard to change course.
That is why the thought of a new Fed chairman is very appealing, and even
more appealing is clipping the Fed's authority as discussed earlier in the
week: specific actions it can take, specific time limits, audits/oversight
to make sure old habits don't return.

For surely the 'magic' will end some day. Who knows when; it could take
years still. By that point the middle class will be wholly gone. Those
remaining, already suffering, will be driven into deeper suffering as those
lower salary full-time jobs they got after they lost their good jobs will
disappear as well. The more the Fed tinkers with inflating assets simply by
printing money, the harder the ultimate fall will be. They are running on a
treadmill at such a speed they cannot get off. If they fall, the result is
ugly. In theory they could keep this going for years, particularly if they
buy equities. That will ultimately complete the job of the complete asset
shift from the middle class to the upper class and the lower class, the
latter of which will be the new home for tens of millions of former middle
class citizens.

Sorry for the gloomy images, but the madness grows every month with every
new FOMC meeting. The United States no longer has real markets that
accurately price earnings. They price in whether the Fed will or won't act
on rates, and eventually when the Fed will start buying equities, how much
will it buy, etc. The real price of assets will be based upon how many
assets the Fed buys with phony money, not output.

Unless this madness ends, the US markets and likely economy will rupture and
collapse at some event in the future when it is revealed that an economy
built on nothing cannot continue producing weapons of war to even protect
itself. It can be cataclysmic or gradual. Remember the USSR? One night
everyone just left their posts and it was over. Fortunately for them, there
was no enemy at the gates waiting for that moment or it would have been
overrun. Now they have rebuilt and are a real threat given the failed
'reset' of relations, Syria negotiations breakdown, etc. Not a good
scenario ahead as things are.

Where from here near term?

What this means for us and the markets, however, is that the Fed and other
central banks will do what they can to prevent declines. The amazing thing
is, after the near rollover in February it appears the Fed is unwilling to
tolerate ANY selling as that could lead fragile markets to collapse.

The problem is, the indices are bucking right now with a lot of back and
forth volatility that shows a fight between sellers and buyers. Don't kid
yourself as some of the guest commentators on the financial stations do that
all of this is just normal market pricing in value in an improving economy
that they hope will continue to move higher when it gets through October and
the election. There is serious strain right now to re-price assets lower,
but the Fed is going to try and prevent any pre-election selling,
post-election selling, ANY selling. Selling, after all, does not fit its
plan for wealth effects and other such notions that have yet to spur the US
economy to its former levels.

It is as if the Fed has admitted to itself the US simply cannot grow as fast
as it used to. People, that was the talk in the 1970's, that the US had run
its course, a nice try that failed. Then we saw the 1980's and the 1990's,
the power of the US when its people were unleashed with tax cuts, investment
incentives, and reduced regulation. A 20 year boom that saw the US far
outpace all other nations.

With this environment some stocks are surging, some are falling, a lot are
going nowhere. Moreover, day to day a lot of these are changing direction.

Given the action, we have pared back positions, have both upside and
downside plays open, and frankly are uncomfortable with the action. The
market appears that it should break but the Fed is standing at the door to
try and block the exit. That is a market in conflict, i.e. with traditional
market forces pushing on it but also policy makers trying to prevent a
selloff. I would prefer to see the outcome and get the new trend in place
before I do a lot more buying on either side. As it is, the market is led
around by the nose each session by each news story or Fed speech. Until one
side takes firm control, the action is treacherous.


After the DB worries Thursday, Friday the indices bounced right back up.
SOX posted another new high while the rest of the indices recovered much of
what they lost Thursday. Another day of the back and forth volatility as
bulls and bears are in a fight. Even so, the Fed is still present, as noted
before, trying to block the exits.


SOX: Added another new post-2000 high, gapping and rallying. Oh, that high
is up over 1350 (closed at 835.60). SOX is strong but is getting ahead of
itself near term.

NASDAQ: Sold to the 20 day EMA Thursday, gapped higher Friday and closed
where the indices opened the prior session. That keeps NASDAQ trending up
the near term moving averages after the 50 day MA test, pretty much textbook
action for continuing a move higher. With AMZN continuing to new highs all
week, NASDAQ had a leader to follow.

RUTX: Similar action to NASDAQ, coming off the 50 day EMA test, testing
back to the 10 and 20 day EMA, holding. Thursday was shaky but it rebounded
upside Friday, keeping the trend in place.

DJ30: Thursday DJ30 rolled over after testing the 2015 prior all-time high.
Friday it recovered most of what it lost, but on the high it touched the
Thursday intraday high and backed off, still unable to close escrow on the
2015 high. Still a negative overall pattern.

SP500: Recovered most of what was lost as well, closing just below the 50
day SMA. Below the post-FOMC rally high. Volume stronger than the Thursday
selling, but again, this was more quarter end positioning versus a flood of

SP400: Same action as the large cap NYSE indices, bouncing back Friday from
the Thursday loss, closing below the Wednesday high, the 50 day SMA, and the
2015 prior all-time high. Overall a bearish pattern where SP400 broke lower,
recovered some ground to a lower high at the lower gap point, and has
wandered laterally.


Big Names: AMZN the clear leader, others doing okay to nothing. FB still
not surging, showing a doji at the 20 day EMA. AAPL looks good to move
higher after a 2 week test. AMZN continued its 2.5 week rally to higher and
higher highs. NFLX breaks through the 200 day SMA in perhaps a turn of
fortune. GOOG spent the week testing, holding the 20 day EMA after it was
unable to break to and hold a higher high. MSFT surged early week, held the
50 day SMA on the Friday close. EBAY is holding a break to a higher high.

Tech: STX enjoyed a solid week to a higher rally high. Software is mixed
with not a lot of great patterns: BLKB, CRM, ORCL, MSFT. WDC still looks
very good.

Chips: Of course moving well as a group, just not all in great position to
enter. LSCC still solid at the 10 day EMA. MU trending up the 10 day as
well but the move has slowed. AVGO is up on the week but problematic. SWKS
jumped higher Friday off a Thursday 50 day EMA test on the low. XLNX surged
Friday off a 50 day EMA test. SLAB surged to a higher high Friday.

Oil: Still surging even on higher inventories, more drills churning. APC,
CWEI, HAL, AXAS, SPN -- lots of gains.

Industrial Equipment: Surging again on Friday, e.g. CMI, CAT.

Financial: Recovered from the Thursday rattle, moving back into the
patterns built before the shakeup around DB. C, BAC. TCBI broke to a new
rally high.

Retail: Some good moves in some groups. Box stores saw KSS break nicely
higher along with DDS, RH. JWN was a laggard. LOW and HD have bounced from
the ugly selling but are still struggling. NKE bounced just modestly,
ditto, DECK.

Biotech: BIIB still is holding up. CELG who knows. IDRA looks good to
enter. EXAS, CEMP recovered modestly but did not change the Thursday
selling. AGEN recovered nicely enough. Still some very promising areas but
some stocks were hit hard last week.

Metals: Some still good patterns, e.g. SID, FCX as others have broken
higher, e.g. SCHN.


Personal Y, August: 0.2% vs 0.2% exp vs 0.4% July

Personal Spending, Aug: 0.0% vs 0.2% exp vs 0.4% July (from 0.3%)

Consumption: 0.0% vs 0.1% expected

Income breakdown: $13.3B from wages, $10B from transfer payments (welfare,
Medicaid, etc.)

Spending down mostly on auto sales.


Stats: +42.85 points (+0.81%) to close at 5312
Volume: 2.003B (+5.04%)

Up Volume: 1.55B (+950.2M)
Down Volume: 488.15M (-841.85M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.64 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 3.05 to 1

New Highs: 111 (+14)
New Lows: 39 (-1)

Stats: +17.14 points (+0.8%) to close at 2168.27
NYSE Volume: 1.2B (+21.33%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.41 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 3.75 to 1

New Highs: 124 (+9)
New Lows: 25 (-5)

Stats: +164.7 points (+0.91%) to close at 18308.15


VIX: 13.29; -0.73
VXN: 15.45; -0.78
VXO: 13.3; -1.52

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.01; -0.03

Fourteen 1.0+ Readings in 5 weeks, 10 of the last 16 sessions over 1.0.
Still plenty of pessimism to keep some upside pressure on.

Bulls and Bears: Bulls bounced and bears faded post-FOMC with all the 'do
nothing, harm nothing' feelings. Perhaps not as the market is struggling to
hold that post-FOMC happy time.

Bulls: 45.2 versus 44.6

Bears: 23.1 versus 24.3

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.

Bulls: 45.2 versus 44.6
44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3
versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus
41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4%
versus 40.2 versus 39.2 versus 40.2% versus 44.3% versus 47.4% versus 41.2%
versus 45.4% versus 43.3% versus 47.4% versus 44.4% versus 39.4% versus
36.4% versus 34.7% versus 26.5%

Bears: 23.1 versus 24.3
24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus
20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5%
versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus
24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus
27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
versus 34.3% versus 35.7% versus 39.8% versus 39.2% versus 38.1% versus
35.4% versus 36.1%


Bonds (10 year): 1.60% versus 1.56%. Faded to the 50 day EMA Friday,
testing a 2 week move off the selloff to the September low.

Historical: 1.56% versus 1.569% versus 1.56% versus 1.584% versus 1.62%
versus 1.625% versus 1.656% versus 1.693% versus 1.705% versus 1.698% versus
1.70% versus 1.698% versus 1.718% versus 1.671% versus 1.67% versus 1.61%
versus 1.53% versus 1.54% versus 1.601% versus 1.57% versus 1.58% versus
1.57% versus 1.57% versus 1.62% versus 1.58% versus 1.56% versus 1.54%
versus 1.58% versus 1.53% versus 1.55% versus 1.57% versus 1.558% versus
1.51% versus 1.56% versus 1.51% versus 1.54% versus 1.59% versus 1.585%
versus 1.503% versus 1.54% versus 1.558% versus 1.51% versus 1.46% versus

EUR/USD: 1.1239 versus 1.1218. All week hugged the 200 day SMA in a
lateral move.

Historical: 1.1218 versus 1.1228 versus 1.2148 versus 1.1254 versus 1.1248
versus 1.12259 versus 1.12061 versus 1.11898 versus 1.1151 versus 1.1177
versus 1.1155 versus 1.12444 versus 1.1245 versus 1.12196 versus 1.12335
versus 1.12318 versus 1.12661 versus 1.1239 versus 1.12554 versus 1.11545
versus 1.11943 versus 1.11572 versus 1.1146 versus 1.11708 versus 1.11949
versus 1.12894 versus 1.1300 versus 1.13045 versus 1.3254 versus 1.13251
versus 1.1342 versus 1.13036 versus 1.12773 versus 1.11824 versus 1.11636
versus 1.11372 versus 1.11803 versus 1.1115 versus 1.1080 versus 1.10882

USD/JPY: 101.326 versus 101.143. Bounced into late week but still not yet
able to break through and hold the 50 day MA's. Trying to work into a
lateral consolidation but ha to show it has some strength.

Historical: 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55 versus 100.75 versus
101.034 versus 101.045 versus 100.386 versus 101.714 versus 101.956 versus
102.280 versus 102.086 versus 102.172 versus 102.155 versus 102.814 versus
101.57 versus 102.685 versus 102.439 versus 102.439 versus 101.698 versus
101.412 versus 103.92 versus 103.226 versus 103.269 versus 102.965 versus
102.160 versus 101.808 versus 100.485 versus 100.306 versus 100.27 versus
100.297 versus 100.21 versus 99.843 versus 100.529 versus 100.953 versus
101.308 versus 101.864

Oil: 48.24, +0.41. Solid 3-day bounce off its 50 day SMA has oil moving up
toward the August peak. Nice double bottom with handle break.

Gold: 1317.10, -8.90. Sold back Tuesday to Friday, now near the 3 week
lateral range.


Another week with plenty of data, starting with the ISM Monday, Factory
Orders Wednesday, and the September jobs report Friday. Remember, at 176K
expected, jobs far exceed what the Fed says is needed to sop up the
additional workers. My how times have changed, how a less than 2% GDP
economy does not need to create that many jobs, even the crappy, low wage
hourly ones this one creates.

As discussed earlier, the day to day back and forth volatility continues
with the NYSE indices mostly struggling in bearish patterns while SOX,
NASDAQ and even RUTX hold decently. The buyers and sellers are still
fighting, the Fed is still trying to prevent any serious selloff, the latest
evidence being Yellen's jawboning on the week that the Fed can directly buy
equities during a crisis. Of course we know the Fed doesn't have to wait
for a crisis as seen in February. At least at that time it looks as if the
Fed used other central banks, but the idea is the same.

There are still some great patterns, upside and downside, in the market. We
will look at those as possible entries if per chance the volatility
subsides. We would prefer moving in once a new trend emerges from the
volatility. You could anticipate an upside trend if the Fed has its way,
but even the Fed cannot control all moves. Again, we can enter some plays
here and there, but would prefer seeing a trend established out of this
volatility, or at least a really clear break upside or break downside.

Leaders will emerge ahead of the pack and maybe that is already the case
with the chips and others, e.g. industrial machinery making its run. The
market remains split, however, and very volatile even with their moves.
Again, we can play some new entries but want to see the trend emerge or
stabilize to pick up a lot of new positions.

Have a great weekend!


NASDAQ: Closed at 5312.00

5340 is the recent all-time closing high.

5287.61 is the all-time high from September 2016
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 5196
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
The 200 day SMA at 4888
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks

S&P 500: Closed at 2168.27

The 50 day SMA at 2168.33
2175 is the June 2016 high
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high

2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
The 200 day SMA at 2063
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high

Dow: Closed at 18,308.15

18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
The 50 day SMA at 18,398
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high

18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
The 200 day SMA at 17,608
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak


September 30 - Friday
Personal Income, August (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior
(no revisions)
Personal Spending, August (8:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.4%
prior (revised from 0.3%)
Core PCE Prices, August (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
(no revisions)
Chicago PMI, September (9:45): 54.2 actual versus 52.0 expected, 51.5 prior
(no revisions)
Michigan Sentiment -, September (10:00): 91.2 actual versus 90.0 expected,
89.8 prior (no revisions)

October 3 - Monday
ISM Index, September (10:00): 50.4 expected, 49.4 prior
Construction Spendin, August (10:00): 0.2% expected, 0.0% prior
Auto Sales, September (14:00): 4.91M prior
Truck Sales, September (14:00): 8.52M prior

October 5 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 10/01 (7:00): -0.7% prior
ADP Employment Chang, September (8:15): 171K expected, 177K prior
Trade Balance, August (8:30): -$39.1B expected, -$39.5B prior
Factory Orders, August (10:00): 0.1% expected, 1.9% prior
ISM Services, September (10:00): 52.8 expected, 51.4 prior
Crude Inventories, 10/01 (10:30): -1.882M prior

October 6 - Thursday
Challenger Job Cuts, September (7:30): -21.8% prior
Initial Claims, 10/01 (8:30): 258K expected, 254K prior
Continuing Claims, 09/24 (8:30): 2062K prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 10/01 (10:30): 49 bcf prior

October 7 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, September (8:30): 176K expected, 151K prior
Nonfarm Private Payr, September (8:30): 171K expected, 126K prior
Unemployment Rate, September (8:30): 4.9% expected, 4.9% prior
Hourly Earnings, September (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Average Workweek, September (8:30): 34.4 expected, 34.3 prior
Wholesale Inventorie, August (10:00): -0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Consumer Credit, August (15:00): $18.0B expected, $17.7B prior

End part 1 of 3
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