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1/9/2016 Investment House Report
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Targets hit: SBUX
Entry alerts: FB; GOOG
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: EYES; FEYE; GOOG; NFLX
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- China gets it together, Jobs Report beats big. Market gets what everyone said it needed, and it still sells off.
- China learning markets have a life of their own, suspends automatic closures, its stocks manage modest gains.
- US futures jump on China 'success,' jump further on Jobs Report. Surely a short covering rally was set. Didn't happen.
- Stocks squander a bounce, close lower again.
- Jobs Report beats expectations, more people enter the workforce, but wages drop, hours worked are flat, temps surge, minimum wage workers hit an all-time high, multiple jobs holders surge.
- Wholesale inventories dive, sales dive more.
- Stock indices remain oversold, but the inability to even sport a modest short covering rally on purportedly good news underscores the bigger picture weakness, bounce or not.
Everyone watching the overnight action felt better. Early Thursday after the China markets closed China announced suspension of the 7% automatic market closure. China stocks didn't surge on the open but they were higher as the selling pressure abated. Hurdle one cleared.
US futures opened up sharply thanks to China avoiding a half hour, 7% loss yet again. Stock futures jumped on the December jobs report that handily beat expectations (292K versus 200K) and showed more construction jobs. The bounce looked set.
After bouncing on the jobs futures faded that gain. They faded more than that gain but were still solid by the open. Tuesday and Wednesday futures traded lower but were at the lows when the bell sounded, rebounding immediately. Friday they were up at the open and then sold immediately. Stocks dropped to midmorning, bounced into lunch, then rolled and sold to lower lows by the close.
Not even the hint of even a measly relief bounce, or at least it was all over by the open. Talk about weak. After close to 8% and 9% losses in just 5 of 6 sessions (not even from the highs), the indices could not even mount a relief bounce. As Jed Clampett of 'The Beverly Hillbillies' would say, 'pitiful.'
SP500 -21.06, -1.08%
NASDAQ -45.80, -0.98%
DJ30 -167.65, -1.02%
VOLUME: NYSE -8%, NASDAQ -10%. Lower trade but both NYSE and NASDAQ still well above average as stocks continued to distribute.
A/D: NYSE -2.2:1, NASDAQ -2.5:1. Very modest downside breadth as the selling intensity lessened on the sixth day of selling.
New Highs: NYSE 511. Just about there in terms of putting the pieces together for a bounce.
Certainly Friday saw the indices sell from 1% to almost 2%, becoming even further oversold. Yes a relief bounce is due and one will come before too long. Often, however, a selloff into the weekend continues with selling to start the week and THEN a bottom forms, typically intraday. Thus we picked up some FB and GOOG put options as those stocks are still in good downside position, looking to make some money on a continued drop early week, take some gain, then see how things rebound.
At this juncture, with this much selling that is how you have to look at it. The overall trend is down but the indices are stretched on this leg. A bit more downside and we bank some more gain, then play the move back up only to reload the downside when the relief bounce stalls.
China didn't crash! China didn't crash!
Interesting that all China had to do was quit some of its typical excessive market control attempts and stocks actually traded higher. The 7% circuit breaker was suspended, buyers and sellers could actually interact versus just selling for fear of missing the opportunity, and voila, the market stabilized and actually put in a modest 2+% gain. Magic.
Other bigger issues face the communists.
Oh, the Chinese economy is still a crap-a-thon of foolish made up spending projects that have the countryside littered with ghost cities, bridges that truly go nowhere, and housing projects inhabited by perhaps ghosts. It is still a huge series of bubbles that will be forced to burst as China is forced to deal with its massive pollution issues.
Pollution. You see the pictures of Beijing and other cities that look like images from the US Dustbowl in the 1930's. Yet, these are modern day metropolises where the citizens go to work, work, then go home and 'enjoy' life in an atmosphere that if you were add water would make a rather toxic soup.
The daily commute in Beijing
It is mind boggling how the elites of the world engage in debates on how to trim nominal levels of particulates and gases from relatively clean air and water when China, Brazil, and India are belching out thousands of times the amount of pollutants that the US and others produce.
The fact is, China and Brazil MUST face their pollution problems on their own and the WILL do so just as the US did in the 1970's. If not, their people contract horrible diseases and die, starting with the children, the next generation of the working class and the most vulnerable. It is a choice the people will demand, and if not met, there will be out and out revolt. The empire as it is would fail. Thus, in order to avoid the overthrow of the government, the government will have to initiate cleanup and promulgate clean air and water regulations. It is a situation where if they don't, they will either lose power via revolt, or govern a nation with a sick, diseased, and dying population.
Thus we should be offering China, Brazil, and India insight on OUR solutions to contaminated air and water. It is not, as much as it would be nice, solar and wind power to the rescue. It is solid science of reducing particulates, gases, effluent, etc. It cost us a lot of money to do it but now we have fishable and swimmable lakes, rivers, and streams, and our air quality is amazingly good outside of the most congested areas.
Oh, I know, some say we have to do more to stop greenhouse gases or we will all die. According to Mr. Gore, the 10 years is up that we had a chance to act. Yet, 2015 it turns out, was not the hottest year on record; faulty sensors and faulty sensor placement grossly overstated US temperatures. Old sensor locations have been surrounded by concrete now, but they are treated as being in open fields in the country, far away from the thermal heating that occurs in cities with high concentrations of concrete and asphalt surfaces. Thus the extrapolations are way off the mark.
And finally, despite all we do, it only takes one major volcano to belch more CO2 into the atmosphere than all of man's activities combined. It gets to be an exercise in tilting at windmills.
Jobs, Jobs everywhere. Good thing given most need two or more to make ends meet.
What a wonderful jobs market we have. And, at 292K when 200K were expected and 50K in upside revisions to October and November, how could anyone conclude other than 'what an economy!
Okay, we will. You know we will. Yes there are jobs and there were some more of the better quality jobs, mostly in construction thanks to El Nino and its more temperate winter weather (though dramatically higher snow and rainfall amounts!), but the same trends are there even with more jobs created.
Sadly, the US economy has, at least while the current policies are in place, into an economy that produces a vast majority of low wage hourly jobs. More people working? Yes and no. More people took a job (+485K according the household survey) but MANY of those were people already with one low paying job taking on another one in order to make ends meet.
Thus, it is a sad fact that while the headlines look better, the underlying makeup of the US economy has dramatically impacted the jobs market structure. The US is now a country of mostly low-paying jobs that require workers to work two to three jobs to make ends meet. Our standard of living has fallen and is falling as the recent study showing the middle class now makes up less than half of the US population reveals.
A question I posed back when the Administration first declared 'recovery' still holds today: Is the economy and are American workers better off with 500,000 new low wage 'starter jobs' or 100,000 new high quality, breadwinner jobs?
I can add to that today: Is the economy and are workers better off given the US still loses more businesses today than it creates? UNTIL we start creating the large numbers of small businesses the US has historically created, the jobs market structure will NEVER change.
Non-Farm: 292K versus 200K expected versus 252K prior
Unemployment Rate: 5.0% versus 5.0% versus 5.0%
Average Hourly wages: 0.00% versus 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior. Just +2.5% year/year
Average wages -$0.01 to 25.24.
Average Hourly Workweek: 34.5 versus 34.5 prior. Absolutely no increase in the hours worked and that is absolutely no surprise given Obamacare and its 29 hour threshold.
Construction +45K. Good! But, extended due to weather and January likely tumbles.
Professional and business +73K
Household Survey Numbers:
Number of employed: +485,000. +229K in October, +271K in November. Very good.
Participation rate: 62.6% versus 62.5% prior. Wow. 0.1% gain after a 40 year low. Much rejoicing -- yeah.
94.2M working aged people not in the workforce. Still a sh--boat load.
Analysis of the Report, a.k.a. The Rub
1. Jobs were created with some in solid areas such as construction, thanks to warmer weather forestalling the usual layoffs this time of year.
2. Wages: No growth. Zero. All of these jobs and people going to work, but wages are not ramping up. That means
a) no labor shortage (with 94.2M working age not working, no wonder);
b) again the majority of jobs created are hourly, low-wage/minimum wage jobs
Minimum wage jobs: +36.9K waiters and bartenders added in December for a total of 11.3M, an all-time high.
What does this mean? Low end wage jobs mean no wage growth. The wage growth seen for two months late summer to fall were due to raising the minimum wage by companies such as WMT (of course offsetting that by cutting hundreds of management jobs). That is over, and it doesn't create more wealth as the WMT switch shows.
3. Temporary workers surge to an all-time high just as food service jobs.
Professional and Business services (e.g. secretaries) rose 73K. Of those jobs, however, 34K were part-time. The conventional wisdom is temporary jobs turn into permanent jobs. No, no they don't, at least not in this 'new improved' economy. Temporary jobs are just that. Employees are hired on a temporary basis with no intention of changing status except in the rare case. Entire staffing companies are based upon the temporary worker shift in the economy. Lawyers, accountants, and other professionals are hired on a contract basis to handle specific tasks/projects. Thus the notion that more temps indicates a stronger job market does not hold today.
4. Multiple jobs holders spike, breadwinner jobs decline, foreign workers brought in to bolster bottom lines by lower wages.
+324K to 7.738M, the highest level since August 2008, the month before the financial crisis hit.
Non-farm jobs rose 292K. The Household says 485K became employed. Whichever figure you look at, the VAST MAJORITY of job recipients ALREADY HAD AT LEAST 1 JOB.
ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) notes that one worker holding multiple jobs are a necessity for many households in order to make ends meet, JUST as I have argued. At least 2/3 of all jobs landed were by people already holding one job.
Conclusion: Again, these startling statistics below the headlines show the structural shift in the US jobs market as a result of the Obama Administration's policies. Businesses and individuals will shift as a result of the policies in place. I am sure no one in the Administration believed that making the threshold required to insure employees at 29 would result in more jobs but at less than 29 hours per week worked. It happened, and indeed the entire structure has shifted from full-time to part-time.
For those areas still offering breadwinner, salaried jobs, many companies advocate bringing in foreign workers (now at 17% of the total workforce) to fill those fewer jobs AND they are removing Americans from those jobs in favor of untrained, much lower cost foreign replacements (e.g. DIS). Fiscal policies that have not provided the incentive to grow business but instead borrow money for stock buybacks have resulted in just that, and the only way else to grow profits is to lower costs. After laying off as many workers as possible, replacing the remaining workers with lower wage foreign workers is the next step in cost cutting.
5. Jobs are the most lagging of indicators. They are always look the strongest at the END of a cycle.
POLICIES MATTER. These trends WILL NOT change until the policies change. Period.
Wholesale Inventories: The icing on the cake.
November: -0.3% versus -0.1% expected versus -0.3% prior (from -0.1%)
Largest drop since 5/2013.
Inventories fell but sales fell far faster. That tells you there is no production ongoing. Of course the regional PMI's and the national ISM manufacturing reports already told you that.
Inventories to Sales ratio: 1.32:1 versus 1.31 in October. That is the highest since the 2008 crisis and matching the highest in the 2001 recession. November 2014 was 1.23:1 for comparison.
Another 1+% decline and that only stretches the market farther downside. At some point a relief move gels. That may be Monday, but as noted, on weak closes to a week often you get continued weakness to open the market anew and that selling is what sets the bottom for a bounce. It was telling to us that the market was wholly unable to mount any short covering bounce to end the week and thus we added just a few more downside positions to take advantage of any early week blow off to the downside.
SP500: Down further into the August/September double bottom as SP500 seems determined now to test that 1900 level as 'Mr. Ascending Wedge' said; kudos for him and we are making good money on the move lower. SP500 undercut the 78% Fibonacci retracement on the move as well. Now we want it to continue on down to that 1900 to 1880-1870 early next week, we take some more great downside gain, then play a sharp upside bounce.
NASDAQ: Gapped higher, rolled over to a 1% loss. NASDAQ is also in the midst of the August/September double bottom though it is right at the 78% Fibonacci retracement as of the Friday close. Stretched just as is SP500. 4500 certainly looks like a solid support level to hold for a bounce, but there is also support at 4600, another 'Friday' lower, that is also good support. Either work in another sharp push lower early week that sets a good, sharp relief move.
DJ30: Undercut the 78% Fibonacci retracement the same as SP500 and is also in the middle of that August/September bottoming process. Stretched way downside, and a bit more fear selling early in the week sets up a great rebound we can use to make money upside after we bank our downside.
RUTX: Continues diving lower, adding to the losses below the September low, closing at the session low. Massively oversold and it won't be long before a relief move is triggered.
SP400: Near some support from April 2014, an interim low on the index's way back up. Major support at 1270 to 1260, but that is another 40 points away. Likely finds some support near 1295 to set a bounce.
SOX: Gapped higher, but as with NASDAQ, rolled over and sold into the midst of the August/September bottom. SOX is at some support from an October 2014 gap point, a low from August 2014 and a high from April 2014. A bit lower and it will rebound.
There are some stocks moving contra to the market, e.g. WMT, but even those had an off session. Others that led the last move had another tough session, but as with the indices, many are getting to an oversold level and will be ready to bounce when a reversal session hits.
Big Names: Many gapped higher then coughed up the move. FB moved to a lower low, breaking a prior peak on more strong volume. AMZN gapped higher and sold back down. A move to 595ish might set a rebound. GOOG broke hard downside from the 50 day EMA. NFLX reversed at the 50 day MA. PCLN is finding a much lower price. SBUX gapped then sold but is also holding over the 200 day SMA. AAPL was up, but sold down from its gap higher. MSFT was up as well but the nasty move was Thursday when it gapped through the 50 day EMA.
Retail: The discounters are still decent though gave up some ground, e.g. WMT, DLTR. COST broke lower on volume and ROST sold hard to the 50 day SMA. Those two were holding up fairly well. Some of the beaten down names decided to remain beaten down, e.g. JWN, DDS, falling to new lows on this long selloff.
Electronics: Solar still holding up, surprising given how cheap oil is becoming and thus obviating the need for high-priced panels that are not nearly as efficient in producing large quantities of energy. SCTY and SOL are hanging in, AMSC tested the 20 day EMA as is FSLR.
Chips: QRVO warned as did CRUS but they fared better than others. ARMH, MLNX dove lower into the summertime bottoming process. XLNX is in full dive mode along with SLAB. All of these have sold hard so after a bit more downside they will be ready to bounce as well.
Telecom: It was okay but has folded this hand. BBRY diving through the 50 day MA. CAMP to the 200 day SMA on volume. IRDM unable to bounce off of Thursday's selling. Scratch these.
Software: Same story. Some holding nicely, e.g. AVID, ROVI. Others stink, e.g. BLKB, FEYE.
Food/Grocery: Even these are rotting some, e.g. KR is slipping some while WFM slipped through the 50 day EMA.
Metals: Starting to fail overall. AKS is find as it tests and holds support, but STLD dove lower, CENX posted a heftier loss, and FCX moved to a lower low.
Financial: JPM diving yet again, undercutting the September/October lows. MA diving toward those same lows. Not pretty.
China: Despite China's woes they are working, or at least holding their patterns. SOHU still in a nice test, SINA holding the lower trendline in its triangle. NTES is paying for its upside sins, cracking the 50 day EMA after a great run.
Energy: Getting ready for some massively oversold bounces, e.g. APA, GPOR, UNT. Some are more amorphous, e.g. HAL, SLB.
Biotech: If it was alive it is not so much so now. CELG breaks hard lower and BIIB is down again, undercutting its own work.
Stats: -45.79 points (-0.98%) to close at 4643.63
Volume: 2.201B (-10.63%)
Up Volume: 602.99M (+337.77M)
Down Volume: 1.66B (-620M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.46 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 6.21 to 1
New Highs: 16 (+1)
New Lows: 367 (+3)
Stats: -21.06 points (-1.08%) to close at 1922.03
NYSE Volume: 1.1B (-8.33%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.19 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 6.37 to 1
New Highs: 15 (-5)
New Lows: 511 (+25)
Stats: -167.65 points (-1.02%) to close at 16346.45
The past two sessions VIX finally broke higher after being stuck in the mud during the first several days of selling. VIX is now at the early December intraday high and the late September high. It is in position to foster a rebound, and another good dip early week should set that bounce.
VIX: 27.01; +2.02
VXN: 28.33; +1.56
VXO: 27.67; +0.93
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.34; -0.04
Recent history: 21 of 31 sessions above 1.0. Seven straight at 1.0 or above. Getting back to a point to support a bounce.
Bulls and Bears: A quick drop in bulls, a modest rise in bears. Bulls below 35%, a bullish indication, bears moving closer to 35%, also a good indication. A crossover next week? Priceless for the upside.
Bulls: 34.7 versus 36.7. Wow, already below the 35% level, below which is considered bullish. Getting there.
Bears: 31.6 versus 29.6. Quickly into the 30's, and over 35% is a bullish signal.
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.
36.7% versus 37.8% versus 44.9% versus 41.2% versus 45.4% versus 43.3% versus 45.3% versus 46.9% versus 43.7% versus 37.5% versus 36.5% versus 30.2% versus 24.7% versus 26.0% versus 26.8% versus 25.7% versus 27.8% versus 31.6% versus 37.7% versus 40.2% versus 42.2% versus 43.3% versus 49.0% versus 43.7% versus 44.8% versus 49.5
Background: Bulls hit their lowest level in 2015 since the 2008 and 2009 market plummet.
29.6% versus 29.6% versus 27.6% versus 26.8% versus 26.8% versus 28.9% versus 28.1% versus 29.2% versus 31.3% versus 31.2% versus 34.4% versus 35.1% versus 30.2% versus 26.8% versus 27.9 versus 26.8% versus 22.5% versus 18.4% versus 18.6% versus 17.5% versus 17.5% versus 15.6% versus 15.6% versus 15.6% versus 15.4% versus 15.4% versus 16.5% versus 16.5% versus 15.8% versus 14.9% versus 15.8% versus 13.9%
Background: Over 35% for bears is the threshold to be really be a good upside indicator. The best indication is when bears cross up through bulls as the two merge. Both occurred in fall 2015.
Bonds (10 year): 2.11% versus 2.15%. Broke back up through the 200 day SMA Wednesday and powering upside Friday. Since the FOMC raised rates the yield curve between the 2 year and 10 year is at its flattest since 2008 when everything turned rather hellish.
Historical: 2.15% versus 2.18% versus 2.25% versus 2.18% versus 2.24% versus 2.27% versus 2.30% versus 2.30% versus 2.23% versus 2.26% versus 2.24% versus 2.20% versus 2.19% versus 2.24% versus 2.29% versus 2.27% versus 2.23% versus 2.13% versus 2.23% versus 2.21% versus 2.23% versus 2.23% versus 2.27% versus 2.33% versus 2.18% versus 2.15% versus 2.21% versus 2.22% versus 2.24% versus 2.25% versus 2.26% versus 2.23% versus 2.27% versus 2.26% versus 2.27% versus 2.28% versus 2.32% versus 2.32% versus 2.35% versus 2.33% versus 2.24% versus 2.23% versus 2.22% versus 2.19%
EUR/USD: 1.0921 versus 1.0937. Euro rebounded Wednesday to Friday.
Historical: 1.0937 versus 1.0789 versus 1.0748 versus 1.0835 versus 1.0934 versus 1.0928 versus 1.0972 versus 1.0963 versus 1.0917 versus 1.0953 versus 1.0920 versus 1.0868 versus 1.0818 versus 1.08334 versus 1.0934 versus 1.0992 versus 1.0987 versus 1.0944 versus 1.1029 versus 1.0892 versus 1.0844 versus 1.0872 versus 1.0948 versus 1.0595 versus 1.0625 versus 1.0566 versus 1.0592
DXY0: Held the 50 day EMA where it dumped to on Thursday. Still trending higher for now.
USD/JPY: 117.24 versus 117.58. Dollar gapped higher then rolled over rather hard, and to a lower low of course.
Historical: 117.58 versus 118.25 versus 119.02 versus 119.397 versus 120.495 versus 120.45 versus 120.345 versus 120.295 versus 120.86 versus 121.01 versus 121.33 versus 122.30 versus 122.68 versus 122.35 versus 121.64 versus 120.85 versus 121.64 versus 121.40 versus 122.97 versus 123.28 versus 123.15 versus 122.49
Oil: 33.16, -0.10. Slowed the selling, showing a second doji on Friday. Perhaps it is ready to bounce to test the 10 day EMA as it continues falling.
Gold: 1104.10, -4.60. Gold took a day off after a 4 day run higher from the December lows. Rather impressive rally off the lows, though still in a downtrend below the 200 day SMA. Looks as if it wants to rally there and then likely rolls over again . . . unless something gets really weird with the Fed and it starts talking negative interest rates. Of course before that it would have to talk about taking back that rate hike. Oh that would be lovely as the markets would likely go postal for a bit before settling down.
Ugly week, the worst first week of a year for the US stock market in . . forever. Yes it was bad for the upside as no new money, or at least not much new money, was put to work upside to start 2016. The chance will come to do so rather soon in our opinion, though it will be more of a short covering move versus a broad buying opportunity that will lift the indices to higher highs. Bulls/bears, put/call ratio, new lows, VIX are coalescing to support a move back upside. A flush out downside early week can provide the trigger.
At this juncture, given there has been no relief bounce, you still have to look at any bounce as just that, a relief move. And, as noted, that should not be too far away. Another good break lower early in the week and the market likely makes an intraday reversal. Monday, maybe Tuesday; we will see. We did pick up a few more downside puts Friday to play for that event, and frankly in the event there is NOT a rebound until the summertime lows are hit. That is one reason we went ahead and closed the NFLX and GOOG positions even though the odds of a rebound improve with each session lower.
The plan as things stand is to let early week weakness push stocks lower, then when the indices hit support or show a sharp intraday reversal off some significantly deeper lows (e.g. 25ish points on SP500, 45ish points on NASDAQ), we close the downside, jump on some SSO, QLD calls, AMZN or GOOG or NFLX or all of the above calls for a sharp, fast surge back up in relief. When that stalls we close them quickly, have some more downside ready, then make that play when the flip back downside continues.
Remember, it is our view that the market has put in a 15 month top, broke after a lower high failed to reach the prior peaks. Bounces are to be played fast then sold, then the downside is to be played for the duration of the leg lower, not just a session or two. In other words, a flip of how we played the uptrend. That is all it is. Nothing spooky, not voodoo, not un-American. Just making money by taking what the market gives you.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 4643.64
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4774 is the January high
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4815 is the December 2014 prior market peak
The March lows at 4843 and 4825
4828 is the late August peak
4837 is the late August 2015 rebound high
4902 is the July 2015 low
4912 the mid-April China dip
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October
The June low at 4974
The 50 day EMA at 4976
The 200 day SMA at 4977
4999 is the October upper gap point
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5042 is the March 2015 high
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5164 is the June 2015 peak, 5175 is the August intraday peak
5232 is the July high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August 2015 low.
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
4352 is the March 2014 peak
4292 is the August 2015 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1922.03
1972 is the December 2014 low
1989 is the last August closing high
1991 is the July 2014 high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
2011 is the September prior all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2038
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
The 200 day SMA at 2059
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2094 is the December 2014 high, the prior all-time high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2119.59 is the February intraday prior all-time high
2126 was the April prior all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
1913 is the early September 2015 closing low testing the bounce from the August selling
1905 is the August 2014 low
1902 from early May was the intraday all-time high.
1897 is the prior all-time high hit in April 2014
1883.57 is the early March high.
1872 is the September 2015 test low of the August low
1867 is the August 2015 low
1862 is the October 2014 closing low
Dow: Closed at 16,346.45
16,368 is the August 2014 low
16,506 is the March 2014 peak
16,589 is the December 2013 all-time high
16,632 is the April 2014 all-time high
16,665 is the late August 2015 closing high. Key, key level.
16,670 is the December 2014 peak and the recent August 2015 relief bounce peak.
16,736 is a prior all-time high from May 2014
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery peak
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17,152 is the mid-July post bear market high
17,200 is the 38% Fibonacci retracement
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
The 50 day EMA at 17,361
The 200 day SMA at 17,504
June 2015 low at 17,715
17,748 is the mid-April China margin selloff and the bottom of the 5 month trading range
The March low at 17,786
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
18,110 - 18,120 from December 2014, July 2015 peaks
18,289 from February 2015
18,351 from May 2015 and the all-time high
16,117 is the October 2014 closing low
16,058 is the early September 2015 low
16,026 is the April 2014 low
15,666 is the August 2015 low
15,372 is the February 2014 low
January 8 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, December (8:30): 292K actual versus 200K expected, 252K prior (revised from 211K)
Nonfarm Private Payr, December (8:30): 275K actual versus 194K expected, 240K prior (revised from 197K)
Unemployment Rate, December (8:30): 5.0% actual versus 5.0% expected, 5.0% prior (no revisions)
Hourly Earnings, December (8:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior (no revisions)
Average Workweek, December (8:30): 34.5 actual versus 34.5 expected, 34.5 prior
Wholesale Inventories, November (10:00): -0.3% actual versus -0.1% expected, -0.3% prior (revised from -0.1%)
Consumer Credit, November (15:00): $13.9B actual versus $18.5B expected, $15.7B prior (revised from $16.0B)
January 12 - Tuesday
JOLTS - Job Openings, November (10:00): 5.38M prior
January 13 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 01/09 (7:00): -27.0% prior
Crude Inventories, 01/09 (10:30): 5.085M prior
Treasury Budget, December (14:00): $1.9B prior
January 14 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 01/09 (8:30): 275K expected, 277K prior
Continuing Claims, 01/02 (8:30): 2220K expected, 2230K prior
Export Prices ex-ag., December (8:30): -0.6% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, December (8:30): -0.2% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 01/09 (10:30): -113 bcf prior
January 15 - Friday
Retail Sales, December (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, December (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior
PPI, December (8:30): -0.1% expected, 0.3% prior
Core PPI, December (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior
Empire Manufacturing, January (8:30): -3.5 expected, -4.6 prior
Industrial Production, December (9:15): -0.2% expected, -0.6% prior
Capacity Utilization, December (9:15): 76.9% expected, 77.0% prior
Michigan Sentiment, January (10:00): 92.6 expected, 92.6 prior
Business Inventories, November (10:00): 0.0% expected, 0.0% prior
End part 1 of 3
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