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1/3/2016 Investment House Report
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New Year's Schedule:
Monday: Normal schedule
Tuesday: Normal schedule
Wednesday: Normal schedule
Thursday: Full market session. Alerts, updated market data, play tables.
Friday: Market closed
Weekend: Summary of data, play tables, notation of any significant events, choice new plays
Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you can sign up at the following link:
The REPORTS SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.
- Market closes out 2015 lower, giving up early week gains.
- Indices still facing same resistance to start the new year.
- Chicago PMI really stinks the place up.
- Will funds go with 2015's leaders, chase beaten down areas, both, something else? We have a lot of plays ready, trying to cover the waterfront.
The stock market was more or less a wash last week with two upside sessions followed by two downside sessions that took that move away. That still left the indices, at least the large cap indices, in the upper half of their ranges of the past two months. The small and midcaps, well, they are still struggling below the 50 day MA, fading from that level Wednesday and Thursday.
Thus the week was somewhat of a wash in terms of the 2015 leaders on the large cap indices. GOOG, AMZN and others faded good moves early week, just as the indices. They are still in position to continue the move and continue leading IF the bids for them return in the new year.
That is the problem with a new year. You don't exactly know where the big money fund managers are going to put their money in the new year. Stick with old tried and true leaders from the prior year or put money into the beaten down areas that can provide a bigger percentage gain for the year. Of course that 'value' prospect can be horse hockey when you consider stocks such as FB, NFLX, GOOG, HD, NKE, PCLN, etc. that started 2015 already at fairly lofty levels and nonetheless led the stock market.
Of course if they are moving money into new areas, that often means they are taking it out of others. That can mean big shifts early in the year up and down as money is pulled and moved.
Thus, we have a lot of plays on the report, upside and downside, in stocks that show promise to move higher and lower early year. Some are 'turning the corner' off the lows, showing accumulation. You can see violent moves upside. Others have put in rounded tops and look ready to roll over if the money plug is pulled. Still others are already on the report and look nice after the Thursday close, e.g. AMZN.
These are plays that look as if they were setting up for the moves at year end. Doesn't mean the funds won't put money elsewhere and pull from other sectors. We will have to see what they do and move quickly to pick up positions in areas they are showing a lot of buying.
Another theme of the new year outside of what the funds do out of the gates is the economy. Thursday jobless claims jumped to 287K from 267K. Of course this number means very little, but it is noteworthy that the figure jumped so soon near Christmas.
Manufacturing continues to fade. The Chicago PMI was ugly.
Chicago PMI: 42.9 versus 50.1 expected versus 48.7. Supposed to rise back above contraction but dove massively lower. Lowest since July 2009. New Orders lowest since May 2009. Backlogs lowest since May 2009. Lots of 2009 references, back when the economy was in the toilet.
To view, click on link or paste URL into browser.
Big Names: AMZN, GOOG tested their breaks higher, still in good position. NFLX broke lower, needs to hold. FB still solid.
Chips: Some breaks lower from SLAB, XLNX, and others are weaker, e.g. MLNX, ARMH.
China: Still one of the stronger groups, e.g. SOHU, NTES. Others are trying to turn back up, e.g. BITA.
Stats: -58.44 points (-1.15%) to close at 5007.41
Volume: 1.384B (+14.42%)
Up Volume: 388.52M (+93.87M)
Down Volume: 984.62M (+59.64M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.83 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.41 to 1
New Highs: 37 (-21)
New Lows: 90 (+13)
Stats: -19.42 points (-0.94%) to close at 2043.94
NYSE Volume: 753.7M (+26.67%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.64 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.46 to 1
New Highs: 19 (-26)
New Lows: 47 (+16)
Stats: -178.84 points (-1.02%) to close at 17425.03
VIX: 18.21; +0.92
VXN: 19.63; +0.75
VXO: 18.17; +1.24
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.04; +0.04
Recent history: 16 of 26 sessions above 1.0.
Bulls and Bears: The spread shows a familiar pattern in this market: bulls higher while bears rise as well. Of course after this past week bulls will tumble and bears will growl higher.
Bulls: 36.7 versus 37.8. Still rolling over rather hard.
Bears: 29.6 versus 29.6.
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.
37.8% versus 44.9% versus 41.2% versus 45.4% versus 43.3% versus 45.3% versus 46.9% versus 43.7% versus 37.5% versus 36.5% versus 30.2% versus 24.7% versus 26.0% versus 26.8% versus 25.7% versus 27.8% versus 31.6% versus 37.7% versus 40.2% versus 42.2% versus 43.3% versus 49.0% versus 43.7% versus 44.8% versus 49.5
Background: Bulls hit their lowest level in 2015 since the 2008 and 2009 market plummet.
29.6% versus 27.6% versus 26.8% versus 26.8% versus 28.9% versus 28.1% versus 29.2% versus 31.3% versus 31.2% versus 34.4% versus 35.1% versus 30.2% versus 26.8% versus 27.9 versus 26.8% versus 22.5% versus 18.4% versus 18.6% versus 17.5% versus 17.5% versus 15.6% versus 15.6% versus 15.6% versus 15.4% versus 15.4% versus 16.5% versus 16.5% versus 15.8% versus 14.9% versus 15.8% versus 13.9%
Background: Over 35% for bears is the threshold to be really be a good upside indicator. The best indication is when bears cross up through bulls as the two merge. Both occurred in fall 2015.
Bonds (10 year): 2.27% versus 2.30%
Historical: 2.30% versus 2.30% versus 2.23% versus 2.26% versus 2.24% versus 2.20% versus 2.19% versus 2.24% versus 2.29% versus 2.27% versus 2.23% versus 2.13% versus 2.23% versus 2.21% versus 2.23% versus 2.23% versus 2.27% versus 2.33% versus 2.18% versus 2.15% versus 2.21% versus 2.22% versus 2.24% versus 2.25% versus 2.26% versus 2.23% versus 2.27% versus 2.26% versus 2.27% versus 2.28% versus 2.32% versus 2.32% versus 2.35% versus 2.33% versus 2.24% versus 2.23% versus 2.22% versus 2.19% versus 2.15% versus 2.17% versus 2.09%
EUR/USD: 1.0934 versus 1.0928.
Historical: 1.0928 versus 1.0972 versus 1.0963 versus 1.0917 versus 1.0953 versus 1.0920 versus 1.0868 versus 1.0818 versus 1.08334 versus 1.0934 versus 1.0992 versus 1.0987 versus 1.0944 versus 1.1029 versus 1.0892 versus 1.0844 versus 1.0872 versus 1.0948 versus 1.0595 versus 1.0625 versus 1.0566 versus 1.0592
DXY0: Holding the 50 day EMA in the four week test, still in solid position as it holds over prior highs from the summer.
USD/JPY: 120.495 versus 120.45. Easing up to the 10 day EMA in a kind of bear-flaggish move.
Historical: 120.45 versus 120.345 versus 120.295 versus 120.86 versus 121.01 versus 121.33 versus 122.30 versus 122.68 versus 122.35 versus 121.64 versus 120.85 versus 121.64 versus 121.40 versus 122.97 versus 123.28 versus 123.15 versus 122.49 versus 123.30 versus 122.91 versus 123.107 versus 122.76 versus 122.79 versus 123.22 versus 122.79 versus 122.98 versus 123.55 versus 123.44 versus 123.20 versus 122.67 versus 122.56 versus 122.85 versus 122.90 versus 123.16 versus 123.16 versus 121.76 versus 121.58 versus 120.98
Oil: 37.07, +0.47.
Gold: 1060.50, +0.70
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5007.41
The 50 day EMA at 5017
5042 is the March 2015 high
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5164 is the June 2015 peak, 5175 is the August intraday peak
5232 is the July high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
4999 is the October upper gap point
The 200 day SMA at 4982
The June low at 4974
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4912 the mid-April China dip
4902 is the July 2015 low
4837 is the late August 2015 rebound high
4828 is the late August peak
The March lows at 4843 and 4825
4815 is the December 2014 prior market peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
S&P 500: Closed at 2043.94
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
The 50 day EMA at 2052
The 200 day SMA at 2061
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2094 is the December 2014 high, the prior all-time high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2119.59 is the February intraday prior all-time high
2126 was the April prior all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
1989 is the last August closing high
1972 is the December 2014 low
1913 is the early September 2015 closing low testing the bounce from the August selling
1905 is the August 2014 low
1902 from early May was the intraday all-time high.
1897 is the prior all-time high hit in April 2014
1883.57 is the early March high.
1872 is the September 2015 test low of the August low
1867 is the August 2015 low
1862 is the October 2014 closing low
Dow: Closed at 17,425.03
The 50 day EMA at 17,487
The 200 day SMA at 17,533
June 2015 low at 17,715
17,748 is the mid-April China margin selloff and the bottom of the 5 month trading range
The March low at 17,786
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
18,110 - 18,120 from December 2014, July 2015 peaks
18,289 from February 2015
18,351 from May 2015 and the all-time high
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,200 is the 38% Fibonacci retracement
17,152 is the mid-July post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery peak
16,736 is a prior all-time high from May 2014
16,670 is the December 2014 peak and the recent August 2015 relief bounce peak.
16,665 is the late August 2015 closing high. Key, key level.
16,632 is the April 2014 all-time high
16,589 is the December 2013 all-time high
16,506 is the March 2014 peak
16,117 is the October 2014 closing low
16,058 is the early September 2015 low
16,026 is the April 2014 low
January 4 - Monday
Construction Spending, November (10:00): 0.8% expected, 1.0% prior
ISM Index, December (10:00): 49.0 expected, 48.6 prior
January 5 - Tuesday
Auto Sales, December (14:00): 5.7M prior
Truck Sales, December (14:00): 8.7M prior
Truck Sales, December (14:00): 8.7M prior
January 6 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 01/02 (7:00): 7.3% prior
MBA Mortgage Purchas, 01/02 (7:00)
ADP Employment Change, December (8:15): 190K expected, 217K prior
Trade Balance, November (8:30): -$44.7B expected, -$43.9B prior
Factory Orders, November (10:00): -0.2% expected, 1.5% prior
ISM Services, December (10:00): 56.4 expected, 55.9 prior
Crude Inventories, 01/02 (10:30): 2.629M prior
January 7 - Thursday
Challenger Job Cuts, December (7:30): -39.0% prior
Initial Claims, 01/02 (8:30): 287K prior
Continuing Claims, 12/26 (8:30): 2198K prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 01/02 (10:30): -58 bcf prior
January 8 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, December (8:30): 200K expected, 211K prior
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, December (8:30)
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, December (8:30): 194K expected, 197K prior
Unemployment Rate, December (8:30): 5.0% prior
Hourly Earnings, December (8:30): 0.2% prior
Unemployment Rate, December (8:30): 5.0% expected, 5.0% prior
Average Workweek, December (8:30): 34.5 prior
Hourly Earnings, December (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Average Workweek, December (8:30): 34.5 expected, 34.5 prior
Wholesale Inventories, November (10:00): -0.1% expected, -0.1% prior
Consumer Credit, November (15:00): $18.5B expected, $16.0B prior
End part 1 of 3
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