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1/30/2016 Investment House Report
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Targets hit: WYNN
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: ADBE; AMGN; AMZN
Stop alerts: LRCX; MA
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- Japan's NIRP policy triggers the second leg of the relief rally.
- Panic buying to end the week as no one wanted to be left behind.
- AMZN earnings sold similar to AAPL's, but market manages just fine.
- Q4 GDP a scintillating 0.69%. Positive reading saved by forced ACA healthcare expenditures.
- Why we view this rally as doomed to fail.
- Playing a further rally to resistance, mindful of the market and individual stock situations.
Friday the relief bounce healed itself as the stock indices finally received the next trigger to send them higher in more short covering. After four lateral sessions in a fairly tight range the setting was just right for the next leg, and it was solid.
AMZN missed its earnings but that was not the issue. It was for AMZN, but not for the overall market.
As is often the case in this Fed/Central Bank centric market (and markets around the globe), it was monetary policy that ginned up excitement and futures.
BOJ: After headlines proclaimed the BOJ was not going to change its monetary policy near term, it borrowed a page from the Alan Greenspan 'if you understand what I am saying I have not done my job' playbook and went negative. Negative as in Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP, aka No Idea Regarding Policy). You pay the banks to hold your money. The idea is to make holding money as unpalatable as possible so you will invest it . . . in financial instruments of course.
That is how QE worked in the US: cannot earn anything on your money in terms of interest, Fed prints free money for the big banks and corporations, that money is put into financial markets (not invested in their business), financial markets surge, people all jump in and push them even higher, and supposedly you feel wealthier.
Problem is, most people don't play that game because they lost their money in the financial crisis, job as well. The job they got only pays a fraction of the wages the one they had before, and thus with the ACA and other rising expenses, all of their money goes to surviving, not investing. Any so-called wealth effect thus only impacts a small segment of society. Voila, sickly, old-world style recovery.
But the market does not worry about that. Japan was doing more to encourage investing in financial markets. That is supposedly good for the US. How I am not sure, other than a stronger dollar versus yen. But the market loved it.
Stocks shot higher early in the morning and never looked back. Not pre-market despite a woeful US Q4 GDP initial read (0.69%) -- hey maybe that means stimulus in the US, right? -- not at the opening bell, and not anytime through the close. The Fed Futures Funds contract did show, after the GDP report, zero count them zero rate hikes for the rest of 2016. Wow.
The market got its trigger.
SP500 46.88, 2.48%
NASDAQ 107.27, 2.38%
DJ30 396.66, 2.47%
VOLUME: NYSE +54%, NASDAQ +9%
A/D: NYSE 8.1:1, NASDAQ 3.9:1
Indeed, Friday saw panic buying. You hear of panic selling of course. There is also panic buying, the fear of missing out on a move. You could almost hear the thoughts, and you did on the financial stations, that surely the market has bottomed -- just below the old highs set after a 6 year QE-induced surge. Oh yes, a major bottom just 15% off the all-time high as the economy heads into recession. That happens SO often (can you detect the sarcasm?).
But who cares the cause. The market is behaving as it typically behaves in these instances. It behaved as it forecast in September after that bottom was put in as we said was occurring. It didn't make the prior highs as we said it would not because of the top that was put it after QE ended and the economy was not strong enough to warrant further price increases. It tumbled to lower lows, pushed internals and sentiment to extremes, and now it is posting a relief bounce as it has done hundreds of times through history with this kind of selloff.
Now it is a matter of the upside running until it hits resistance that stalls the move. But where?
The US economic news was a backdrop Friday. Japan's NIRP, the market surge, the State Department now admitting 22 Clinton emails run through private servers (that would seem to be admitting per se liability). Lots of stories stealing headlines from what used to be the market's true driver, the economy.
Q4 GDP 1st report: 0.69% versus 0.9% expected versus 1.3% Q3
2015 Annual GDP: 1.82%. Holy crap. And all year were you not told by the Administration, but the Steve Liesman's on the financial stations, that the economy was just fine? 1.82%? As I said, we are now trained to think that 2%ish growth is great. We are Europe.
Consumer spending: 2.2% versus 1.8% expected. That looks impressive and was heralded as showing the consumer is keeping the economy afloat. If you break the spending down, however, the sickening truth hits you: this is not spending of discretionary income on consumer items during a time of prosperity, but FORCED spending on higher healthcare costs as a result of the ACA 'tax.' Forced to buy more expensive insurance, and when you do try to use it find that the healthcare you have to pay for out of your own pocket because of massively high deductibles costs a lot more.
What a cynical, perverse method of measuring the 'health' of the consumer, i.e. by measuring what they are forced to pay as a result of government edict and calling that 'impressive spending.' That is like saying a prisoner of war forced to smile for propaganda photos is truly happy.
Happy Soviet citizens waiting in line for bread. I guess it beats the millions purposefully starved to death by Stalin in the Ukraine. They love it so much thousands died each year trying to escape.
Friday SP500 closed smack on 1940, the lower resistance point we cited, the one coincident with the mid-January micro bounce that failed. There is some price resistance there, but nothing major. The Friday move was too strong for that level to seriously hold back the move.
SP500 looks set to head up to the 1990 - 1995 level, the mid-September peak roughly coincident with the 50 day EMA. That peak was the last high before the November 2015 high, the last high hit before the January collapse. That makes the September peak a key level in the bigger picture sequence:
The 15 month top starting October 2014 when QE ended.
The all-time high hit May 2015.
The plunge lower in the summer 2015, the double bottom and recovery into November.
That was a strong rebound, but it failed to match or take out the old highs, putting in a lower high, even with stronger MACD than at the all-time high from May. That lower high proved the market top.
Stocks tumbled for the second major selloff after the top was in, putting in a lower low than the original October 2014 low. Now they are on the rebound after extreme technical and sentiment levels. With the economy faltering and stocks leading the move as always, they will not recover to new highs, they will not recover the November high. They will rise to a lower peak such as the 1995 level (2020 if you count the September intraday high) where there are several prior price resistance levels. That peak represents the left shoulder in a forming head and shoulders starting at the end of the August 2015 plunge. Thus it is a very logical point for a market relief rally to shoot for.
I know, some of you are saying 'Jon, you have said head and shoulders patterns are very unreliable. How is this different?' True, no pattern is a lock. A pattern can set up perfectly and still not work just as a bottom can set up perfectly but not yield a recovery due to a lack of leaders.
With patterns, however, timing is everything. You always have to respect them when they form, but if you see a triangle in a bearish market, the triangle can still breakout, but the likelihood is the breakout fails. We saw several head and shoulders patterns in stocks set up during the long rally, indeed even in the indices themselves, but they failed.
I went through the sequence of events above that demonstrates how this top set up and has progressed. It is that progression that indicates a head and shoulders pattern likely sets up and that it likely is completes and breaks down. It is the time of the market that controls. A major top is in according to our understanding of the market and economy over 30 of active participation and study.
Thus, the action since August 2015 does not suggest that the selling is over and the market has bottomed to continue higher and put in new highs. Instead it suggests it is part of a larger, longer term selloff as the QE false growth rally is unwound given the economy never recovered during the 'recovery.' A 15% decline doesn't do it.
Sure the scenario can be altered. Look at what Japan going NIRP did just on Friday: reversed weakness, caused panic buying, resulted in a massive short covering move into the close. If the Fed decides to admit that it hiked at possibly the worst possible time it could have started to tighten (AFTER the selling from the market top began and the economy is rolling over into recession) and moves back toward monetary easing, of course the market rallies. Again, just Japan announcing NIRP resulted in 2+% moves in US stock indices in one day.
Unfortunately, as on Wednesday with the FOMC announcement selling, the stock market is bound to the Fed as the Fed has provided the only source of buy side impetus since the financial crisis. Thus the Fed is always the disrupter, and sadly, over the past 20 years the Fed constantly intervenes not for economic reasons, but for market reasons. We used to never hear about the Fed or any of its members of other than the chairman when he gave his report to Congress. The Fed did very little back then; it let markets work except for times of extreme crisis.
Sadly, as a new generation has come to think 2% economic growth is great (another prediction we had), we have come to think central bank intervention is standard and ongoing procedure, necessary to rescue markets in any times of trouble or perceived trouble. Once a body grabs power, it is loathe to give it up without the power being wrested away. As the recent vote in Congress showed, our leaders do not even have the stomach to apprise themselves as to what the Fed is actually doing with our money. This is a sad state of affairs as leadership is now out of vogue.
Given the earlier discussion, no reason to go into too much detail. The market indices all surged Friday, resuming the relief move after a four session lateral consolidation. At this rate it won't take SP500 long to get to 1995ish.
SP500: Surged out of the four session lateral move, bounding to 1940. That is the first resistance point but likely won't hold it back.
NASDAQ: After the lower and lower highs below the 10 day EMA, NASDAQ ignited to the upside. Some resistance at 4635, but 4735 - 4745 at the lower gap from early January is more likely the serious test for NASDAQ. Of course it could try to fill some gaps up to 4900, the NASDAQ's September peak.
DJ30: Big surge, and similar to SP500 is near the early January failed bounce attempt (16,590; closed at 16,466). More likely resistance is 16750ish, the September closing peak.
RUTX: Surged out of its lateral consolidation to the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the selloff. Resistance at 1050 (closed at 1035).
SP400: Surged to the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the early January failed bounce point. 1355 is the key resistance (closed at 1317).
SOX: Gapped and rallied to the early January failed bounce point. Resistance at 630, then 642 (closed at 613.68).
Most everything bounced. Some big names are trying to transform their patterns into something more bullish. Some chips have interesting short term bottoming patterns. There is some improvement, but of course after the kind of selling thus far, you would expect improvement.
Big Names: Continued their moves. FB was up to a higher all-time high. GOOG broke through the 50 day SMA; if an ABCD down is going to work it needs to do so rather soon. AMZN struggled after earnings but was bouncing from the open. AAPL bounced back into the gap zone from Wednesday after it flopped on earnings; nothing great. SBUX gapped over the 50 day SMA. MSFT gapped sharply higher, just below the December highs.
Financial: Big buys here after Japan went NIRP. JPM surged to the 38% Fibonacci retracement. MA gapped sharply lower then reversed sharply. GS gapped to the 20 day EMA. BAC surged through the 10 day EMA on strong volume. Looks like some near term bottoms here.
Energy: Similar to financials, posting some sharp bounces. HAL gapped off an interesting though short bottom. APC spent the week working up off a new low. GPOR enjoyed a big week. CVX rallied to the 50 day EMA for the second session.
Retail: Discount retailers surging: WMT, DLTR, DG. TSCO surged out of its three month downtrend, following a huge Thursday intraday reversal. TJX surged off the 50 day EMA. COST is holding the 200 day SMA, trying to put in a bounce. M has one of the best patterns, but it is struggling to get going.
Chips: Surged. MCHP looked heavy but jumped. AVGO gapped through the 200 day SMA. QRVO is coming off an interesting bottom attempt. XLNX blasted off again. NXPI has an interesting bottoming pattern. Many of the AAPL related chips surged with AAPL.
Consumer/Household products surged: PG, CLX, CL
Stats: +107.28 points (+2.38%) to close at 4613.95
Volume: 2.457B (+9.32%)
Up Volume: 2.24B (+1.1B)
Down Volume: 342.49M (-817.51M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 3.93 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.13 to 1
New Highs: 31 (+16)
New Lows: 110 (-65)
Stats: +46.88 points (+2.48%) to close at 1940.24
NYSE Volume: 1.62B (+54.29%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 8.1 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.03 to 1
New Highs: 56 (+27)
New Lows: 43 (-60)
Stats: +396.66 points (+2.47%) to close at 16466.3
VIX: 20.2; -2.22
VXN: 23.64; -2.68
VXO: 21.1; -2.41
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.91; +0.04
Recent history: Fourth consecutive sub-1.00 session; you would expect that given the surge. Over 1.0 for 16 of the last 21 sessions.
Bulls and Bears: Bulls recovered some, bears slipped some, but no change regarding the crossover.
Bulls: 29.2 versus 26.8. Still well below 35%, but as the selling abated, confidence great a bit.
Bears: 35.4 versus 36.1. Holding above 35% is bullish. Bears did slide as the selling abated near term.
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.
26.8% versus 28.6% versus 34.7% versus 36.7% versus 37.8% versus 44.9% versus 41.2% versus 45.4% versus 43.3% versus 45.3% versus 46.9% versus 43.7% versus 37.5% versus 36.5% versus 30.2% versus 24.7% versus 26.0% versus 26.8% versus 25.7% versus 27.8% versus 31.6% versus 37.7% versus 40.2% versus 42.2% versus 43.3% versus 49.0% versus 43.7% versus 44.8% versus 49.5
Background: Bulls hit their lowest level in 2015 since the 2008 and 2009 market plummet.
36.1% versus 35.7% versus 31.6% versus 29.6% versus 29.6% versus 27.6% versus 26.8% versus 26.8% versus 28.9% versus 28.1% versus 29.2% versus 31.3% versus 31.2% versus 34.4% versus 35.1% versus 30.2% versus 26.8% versus 27.9 versus 26.8% versus 22.5% versus 18.4% versus 18.6% versus 17.5% versus 17.5% versus 15.6% versus 15.6% versus 15.6% versus 15.4% versus 15.4% versus 16.5% versus 16.5% versus 15.8% versus 14.9% versus 15.8% versus 13.9%
Background: Over 35% for bears is the threshold to be really be a good upside indicator. The best indication is when bears cross up through bulls as the two merge. Both occurred in fall 2015.
Bonds (10 year): 1.93% versus 1.99%. Negative rates in Japan, negative rates in the US as the next QE? Rates are heading that way with the pace picking up this past week.
Historical: 1.99% versus 2.019% versus 2.01% versus 2.01% versus 2.05% versus 2.01% versus 1.99% versus 2.05% versus 2.03% versus 2.09% versus 2.07% versus 2.105% versus 2.17% versus 2.11% versus 2.15% versus 2.18% versus 2.25% versus 2.18% versus 2.24% versus 2.27% versus 2.30% versus 2.30% versus 2.23%
EUR/USD: 1.0836 versus 1.0939. Right back down after that one-session surge.
Historical: 1.0939 versus 1.0899 versus 1.0854 versus 1.0849 versus 1.0798 versus 1.0769 versus 1.0815 versus 1.0910 versus 1.0917 versus 1.0869 versus 1.0879 versus 1.0851 versus 1.0854 versus 1.0921 versus 1.0937 versus 1.0789 versus 1.0748 versus 1.0835 versus 1.0934 versus 1.0928 versus 1.0972 versus 1.0963 versus 1.0917 versus 1.0953 versus 1.0920 versus 1.0868 versus 1.0818 versus 1.08334 versus 1.0934 versus 1.0992 versus 1.0987 versus 1.0944 versus 1.1029 versus 1.0892 versus 1.0844 versus 1.0872 versus 1.0948 versus 1.0595
USD/JPY: 121.055 versus 118.27. Dollar surging of course as Japan goes full negative rates.
Historical: 118.27 versus 118.64 versus 118.48 versus 118.32 versus 118.78 versus 118.85 versus 116.99 versus 117.60 versus 117.02 versus 118.06 versus 117.72 versus 117.50 versus 117.73 versus 117.71 versus 117.24 versus 117.58 versus 118.25 versus 119.02 versus 119.397 versus 120.495 versus 120.45 versus 120.345 versus 120.295 versus 120.86 versus 121.01 versus 121.33 versus 122.30
Oil: 33.74, +0.52. The rebound continues from an oversold condition. A good week that saw that move resumed Tuesday. Approaching the 50 day EMA but still a long way to go.
Gold: 1118.40, +2.80. Up on the week though lost ground Thursday. Moved up off the 10 day EMA Friday, likely trying to figure out what the Japan NIRP means.
No FOMC meeting this week. Of course that doesn't mean Yellen's henchmen won't be out 'explaining' what the Fed meant Wednesday and what Japan's NIRP means to US policy. Always the overhang from the regulators to deal with.
Otherwise it looks as if the move is going as planned. Relief bounce started on extremes, paused, got back going Friday.
Now we play the upside move though these are not all that easy as they are fraught with pitfalls. The bounce is in place and proceeding but the Fed is out there. We are in full blown earnings season, and at some point the good news is all the good news that can be handled. Or in terms of the past week, the bad news can only generate so much upside.
We are looking at some more plays upside as the move makes its second run. Some chips look interesting, perhaps some financial stocks or retailers.
Be aware of the ABCD downside pattern. Now that the market has in our view topped and sold off, this pattern starts manifesting. It is a sharp selloff, a bounce, a test to a higher low, then a move to a higher high. It looks as if a bottom is put in, and it is, for the near term. Once the recovery hits the 50%, 61%, or the 78% Fibonacci retracement, however, it tends to roll over. Why? Because the downside momentum/trend is still in place. It is a negative market, the stock sold hard, it bounces back, but that bounce is now a counter trend move. It is prone to roll over.
So, if you look at NVDA, GOOG, AMZN, CMG, AVGO and many others, you see a move higher starting or already taking place. They look good, but you have to be aware of the pattern and the market circumstance. Indeed, how these stocks react will tell more about the overall market. If they keep on running to new highs, our whole market top theory is put into question. Hey, you always have to be open and reevaluate the action.
You can play those stocks, e.g. QRVO, but just know the situation and where the move has a probability of ending. We are going to play some more of these in addition to stocks such as WYNN where we banked some upside gain Friday. We play the move, get what we can, don't try to stretch a double into a triple, then see how the market fares.
Our overall strategy is still a market bounce on this second relief bounce leg, a move up to logical resistance, then a resumption of the downside.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 4613.95
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August 2015 low.
4736 is the early January lower gap point downside, the last downside gap in the selloff.
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4774 is the January 2-15 high
The 50 day EMA at 4790
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4815 is the December 2014 peak
The March 2015 lows at 4843 and 4825
4902 is the July 2015 low
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October
The 200 day SMA at 4950
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4999 is the October upper gap point
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5042 is the March 2015 high
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5164 is the June 2015 peak, 5175 is the August intraday peak
5232 is the July high
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
4471 is the January 2016 closing low
4352 is the March 2014 peak
4313 is the January 2016 intraday low
4292 is the August 2015 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1940.24
1940 is the early January 2016 failed bounce peak
1972 is the December 2014 low
The 50 day EMA at 1979
1991 is the July 2014 high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
2011 is the September prior all-time high
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
The 200 day SMA at 2046
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2094 is the December 2014 high, the prior all-time high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2119.59 is the February intraday prior all-time high
2126 was the April prior all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
1913 is the early September 2015 closing low testing the bounce from the August selling
1905 is the August 2014 low
1902 from early May was the intraday all-time high.
1897 is the prior all-time high hit in April 2014
1872 is the September 2015 test low of the August low
1867 is the August 2015 low
1862 is the October 2014 closing low
1859 is the January 2016 closing low
1820 is the October 2014 intraday low
1815 is the April 2014 low
1772 are the Q4 2013 highs and lows
Dow: Closed at 16,466.30
16,506 is the March 2014 peak
16,589 is the December 2013 former all-time high
16,632 is the April 2014 peak
16,665 is the late August 2015 closing high
16,670 is the December 2014 peak and the recent August 2015 relief bounce peak.
16,736 is a prior all-time high from May 2014
16,740 is the mid-September peak and potential apex for a right shoulder to a head and shoulders pattern
The 50 day EMA at 16,827
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17,152 is the mid-July post bear market high
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
The 200 day SMA at 17,381
June 2015 low at 17,715
17,748 is the mid-April China margin selloff and the bottom of the 5 month trading range
The March low at 17,786
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
16,368 is the August 2014 low
16,117 is the October 2014 closing low
16,058 is the early September 2015 low
16,026 is the April 2014 low
15,855 is the October 2014 intraday low
15,766 is the January closing low
15,666 is the August 2015 closing low
15,450 is the January 2016 intraday low
15,372 is the February 2014 low
15,370 is the August 2015 low
January 29 - Friday
GDP-Adv., Q4 (8:30): 0.7% actual versus 0.9% expected, 2.0% prior (no revisions)
GDP Deflator, Q4 (8:30): 0.8% actual versus 0.9% expected, 1.3% prior (no revisions)
Employment Cost Index, Q4 (8:30): 0.6% actual versus 0.6% expected, 0.6% prior (no revisions)
Chicago PMI, January (9:45): 55.6 actual versus 45.0 expected, 42.9 prior
Michigan Sentiment - Final, January (10:00): 92.0 actual versus 93.2 expected, 93.3 prior
February 1 - Monday
PCE Prices, December (8:30): 0.1% prior
Personal Income, December (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Personal Spending, December (8:30): 0.3% prior
Personal Spending, December (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.3% prior
Core PCE Prices, December (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Construction Spendin, December (10:00): 0.5% expected, -0.4% prior
ISM Index, January (10:00): 48.3 expected, 48.2 prior
February 2 - Tuesday
Auto Sales, January (14:00): 5.51M prior
Truck Sales, January (14:00): 8.34M prior
February 3 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 01/30 (7:00): +8.8% prior
ADP Employment Chang, January (8:15): 190K expected, 257K prior
ISM Services, January (10:00): 55.0 expected, 55.3 prior
Crude Inventories, 01/30 (10:30): 8.383M prior
February 4 - Thursday
Challenger Job Cuts, January (7:30): -27.6% prior
Initial Claims, 01/30 (8:30): 275K expected, 278K prior
Continuing Claims, 01/23 (8:30): 2253K expected, 2268K prior
Productivity-Prel, Q4 (8:30): -1.7% expected, 2.2% prior
Unit Labor Costs-Pre, Q4 (8:30): 3.8% expected, 1.8% prior
Factory Orders, December (10:00): -2.6% expected, -0.2% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 01/30 (10:30): -211 bcf prior
February 5 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, January (8:30): 188K expected, 292K prior
Nonfarm Private Payr, January (8:30): 183K expected, 275K prior
Unemployment Rate, January (8:30): 5.0% expected, 5.0% prior
Hourly Earnings, January (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.0% prior
Average Workweek, January (8:30): 34.5 expected, 34.5 prior
Trade Balance, December (8:30): -$43.5B expected, -$42.4B prior
Consumer Credit, December (15:00): $16.5B expected, $13.9B prior
End part 1 of 3
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