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1/16/2016 Investment House Report
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MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: AAPL; AMZN; GOOG
Entry alerts: CYBR
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: AVID
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
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The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy, Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
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TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
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The REPORTS SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Bullard's Thursday save erased from the books as indices probe lower lows.
- Economic data in US shows the dramatic slowing the stock market forecast, but facts cannot get in the way of the true believers.
- Market is now in a downtrend and the mindset has to change from the 6 year upside run, at least until the Fed tries to change things once more with additional QE.
- Market internals, sentiment, technical setup is primed for a bounce. We plan some obvious upside to take gain offered but eye the downside setup when the move stalls. Once it starts, that is.
Well, IF SP500 is going to complete a head and shoulders pattern, it has at least given itself a very good contra-trend window to bounce back up. Recall that the apex of what we view as a potential left shoulder is around 1990 - 1995. Given SP500 closed at 1880, that is a nice 110 point move upside. Pop the champagne!
Friday the stock market sold hard once more, turning down from the Thursday bounce almost before the tickers stopped Thursday night. A plethora of negatives greeted traders and investors and gave many, many reasons to jettison more stocks. I will go into those over the weekend because the news is simply not good, and the reasoning we heard all session long as to what was happening and what it meant was simply astounding. In any event, the Thursday rebound evaporated and stocks dove lower with the SP500 lows undercutting the summer 2015 'flash crash 2' lows.
SP500 -41.51, -2.16%
NASDAQ -126.58, -2.74%
DJ30 -390.97, -2.39%
SP400 -1.49% -- relative strength leader. Much rejoicing, yeah.
RUTX -1.75%
SOX -4.53%
VOLUME: NYSE +15%, NASDAQ +8%. Big volume but it was also expiration. Suffice it to say the market sold on heavier and heavier volume all week.
A/D: NYSE -4.7:1, NASDAQ -4.7:1. Okay not so big, but that was the closing numbers. On the session lows NYSE breadth sported an extreme -10:1 along with NASDAQ's rather extreme -8.6:1. THAT is extreme and is the kind of action that leads to rebounds . . . along with the help from other indicators that are also at extreme levels.
New Lows: NYSE 887, NASDAQ 641. Yep that is extreme.
The astounding thing is the responses of guests on the financial stations. All Friday long they trotted out experts who dogmatically stuck to the talking points laid out by those in control of our markets, e.g. the FOMC that is now the arm of the administration. I won't go into that latter relationship, but it was as if I was watching the State of the Union all over again in terms of the detachment from reality spouted by these experts.
The main theme they all proffered: the stock market, the bond market, the oil market all have it wrong. There is nothing, according to these oh so sage guardians of economic truth, wrong with the economy. Look at the jobs. Look at corporate earnings. All is well. All is well.
After the retail sales for December disaster (control group -0.3% versus +0.3% expected; weakest year/year sales since 2009), CNBC's other bald guy, Steve Liesman (hell of a name in this context) argued with Joe Kernan about how the economy was so strong, pointing adamantly to the 297K jobs created in December.
Look at all the jobs! Look at all the jobs!
No, it should be 'look at all the crappy jobs!'
Unfortunately Joe Kernan could not effectively argue the other side. Sure there are jobs. Jobs that pay so low that people have to work two to three jobs to just get by. We have replaced salaried, head of household jobs with minimum wage jobs. Good thing we have created another couple million more than the other jobs had in 2007 because people have to work them, something the December report proved given the surge in people taking those jobs who already worked one or two jobs. I wanted 'Mr. Wonderful' from Shark Tank to come out and famously say 'smell the bankruptcy!' Liesman is so married to the mantra he cannot see the truth behind the numbers he quotes.
Then there was one poor mixed up youngster who exclaimed "the US is not in recession so stocks should be rising!" My word. What are they teaching now? There was also an older analyst who said the market selling was a "sentiment driven reaction." I found myself saying 'he should know better . . . or went to school at Princeton.'
Stocks react? No, stocks LEAD economic action. Stocks price in, even with Fed intervention though with less sharpness, future earnings and economic activity months in advance. They don't wait for the economy to fall and go 'gee I guess I had better sell now that the economy is lower.' Is it any coincidence that stocks formed a 15 month top starting October 2014, the EXACT month the Fed stopped QE, then crashed last summer WELL BEFORE the economic data started to seriously roll over as seen in November through present?
I digress, of course, but I believe it is important to understand that these people are out there and in some cases managing money. They put their cockeyed theories to work, and while they may appear right for a short period, they end up getting utterly slaughtered in the slaughterhouse the stock market can be.
Now, this all ties together. It just so happens that this very well could be the time where they all feel that this is just the market run amuck in the near term and is going to bounce right back. With SP500 at the summer 2015 lows, the neckline in a potential head and shoulders, this is the range where it should bounce to form that pattern. It is the level we talked about last week, the perfect level, to launch such a move and complete the pattern.
See how the market uses that sentiment, how it plays upon emotions, luring those in who swear this is just a short term reaction and using a relief bounce to suck them in? Oh sure, we will play a relief bounce as well but we do it expecting it to end around 1990. If not, cool, we let it run. We have been around the stock market and the economy long enough, however, to have seen this all before.
The entire stock recovery was driven by the Fed. QE, zero rates. Free money that was used to buy back stock, pay dividends so people would want to buy big corporation stock, buy other companies (beats making capital and personnel investments). It was a circle of money that went from the Fed to financial institutions and large corporations and back again and again, pushing the stock market higher on nothing. 'Seinfeld' was a show about nothing. This entire move from 2009 was a stock market mega rally about nothing. Well, at least nothing economically; it was indeed about free money.
The point: After that long and hopefully somewhat interesting and intriguing explanation, if our model holds, the market as measured by SP500, has a 5% to 6% upside move ahead of it. Many will jump in as a sign of a bottom given a hold at the summer lows as well as other support from old trendlines. Hey, maybe it turns out to be the bottom. Unlikely given the massive top over it, but you have to remain open to the possibilities. What did Spock say? When you eliminate the possible you have to consider the impossible? In any event, we would buy in with them, let them push positions back up to that prior level, and if the market stalls, we get out, pocket the gains, and load up once again on downside plays.
Friday we used the selling to the prior lows, and the hold of those on the close by SP500, as an opportunity to take some downside gains on AAPL, AMZN, GOOG. We even bought some CYBR as it showed a solid session in a down market. We did not have the desire to pick up any DIA or SPY, figuring if the market bounces off of this potential neckline there is enough room for us to make very good money without sticking our neck out over the weekend.
NEWS/ECONOMY
Where to start? Friday a veritable data deluge swamped investors. Outside of a peculiar Michigan Sentiment beat (perhaps they were very upbeat about their chances of winning the power ball jackpot?) the data was atrocious. The market formed a large top, and now the data is tumbling in 'support' of that top.
Retail Sales, December. Declining.
-0.1% versus 0.1% expected versus 0.4% November (from 0.2%)
Year/year: 2.2%, the weakest since 2009, a renowned banner year for the economy.
Control Group (feeds directly to GDP): -0.3% versus +0.3% expected. GDP forecasts will have to be cut amid all of this supposed economic strength, and indeed, after hours, the Atlanta Fed cut its Q4 GDP forecast to 0.6% growth, down from 0.8% reported just 8 days ago.
With the weakest year/year retail sales report since 2009 still freshly stinging, Steve Liesman could not let the facts of every economic indicator rolling over except for the LAGGING employment indicator change his views. So married to the love of Fed and the Princeton school of Keynesian economics, Mr. Liesman bitterly clings to his dogma that all of those low pay hourly jobs would no doubt spur an economic renaissance to the exclusion of one of the most well-known economic maxims: jobs lag the overall economy.
Thus, while even more indicators crashed as Friday's data releases revealed, the Keynesian economic manipulators simply cannot admit to the facts. Of course if they did then they would be admitting their entire money supply manipulation theory was a pile of horse dung. And I don't mean to offend horse dung.
Holiday Sales Sag.
The National Retail Federation reported its hard numbers on the 2015 holiday season, finally ending the speculation.
3.0% versus 3.7% expected. The lowest since the 2013 holiday season.
Just a tad bit disappointing. Where did that gasoline tax cut go that was supposed to fuel spending and recharge the season? It went to unaffordable healthcare program that is siphoning off consumers' disposable income.
WMT to shutter stores, lay off employees.
It certainly is not going to WMT. Friday the massive retailer announced it is closing 269 stores in the US and Latin America, many in Brazil. The closures will impact at least 16,000 employees. WMT said it would help those employees impacted to get on with other stores left open, but just how many employees can a store absorb? Perhaps the flood of immigrants to Europe and their absorption into that society provides a case study for WMT. Perhaps not.
Of course this comes after WMT raised its lowest wage employees, axing hundreds of salaried management positions. So, how is that working for it? Does not seem so grand a plan, a discount retailer whose mantra is lower and lower prices hiking wages for low level jobs beyond what the economics will bear. So, WMT closes stores and lays off workers. It is eating itself from within.
New York Empire PMI: -19.4 versus -3.5 versus -6.2 (from -4.6)
This is the sharpest decline since 2008 and the largest expectations miss ever. The last time the NYE PMI was at this level was back in 2008 and before that in 2001.
Industrial Production tumbles the most since . . . 2008.
Notice how EVERYTHING is falling the fastest it has fallen in the past 8 years, the time of the financial crisis? That tells you how bad things are.
December: -0.4% versus -0.2% expected versus -0.9% November (from -0.6%)
Year/year: -1.8%, also the fastest since May 2008 and a level never seen outside of a recession.
Capacity Utilization tumbles
Utilization, December: 76.5 versus 76.9 expected versus 76.9 prior (from 77.0)
Just not enough business to keep the production facilities running.
Business Inventories, November: -0.2% versus 0.0% expected, -0.1% October (from 0.0%)
Sales: -0.2% versus -0.2% October
Inventory to Sales: Remains at 1.38:1, matching the highest since 2008
Year/year: -1.4%
Summary: The economic data continues to weaken, falling as fast as and to levels seen since 2008 during the height of the financial crisis. How on earth can that be read as indication of a strong economy? Those in favor right now cannot give up their ideology and those in power do not want them to or lest they reveal that the policies in place are based on incorrect theories and assumptions.
Indeed, in my lifetime I have never seen such a denial of clear fact and such fury in supporting the denials. What is to be gained from believing things are improving when not? I am not sure, other than power, but I do know as I have said before, until the policies change the outcome cannot.
What does that mean market-wise? The market is pricing in an economic recession of some sort. The market does that until it senses a turn that will lead to expansion and earnings growth. OR, as Art Cashin said Friday, until the Fed goes back to QE or some other form of free money stimulus at which time the market prices in the free money. That is why, since QE ended in October 2014, the market has formed a 15 month top and has broke down. No QE, no change in fiscal policies, no growth, and therefore the market is taking out the pricing that QE caused.
THE MARKET
TECHNICAL PICTURE
I can go into great detail as to each index and the intricacies of the moves. As this juncture, however, we all know the score.
The market has put in a year-plus top. It broke lower once, rebounded to a lower high, broke down again. Friday SP500 joined SP400 and RUTX in undercutting both the August and September lows. From the late December lower high it was down 10.75%. It rebounded to close at those lows as well as a pair of important trendlines. The pattern it is forming is a large 6 month head and shoulders and is at support, ready to bounce to form the right shoulder. That pattern is in line with the overall negative market top and break lower.
The internals are at extremes. New lows 887 on NYSE, 641 on NASDAQ. Breadth -10:1 NYSE on the Friday low, -8.6:1 on NASDAQ.
Sentiment is at extremes. Put/Call ratio over 1.0 for 11 sessions straight. Bulls and bears below and above 35%, respectively, and have crossed over.
The only indicator that has not spiked out of sight is VIX. It hit 30.95 on the Friday high, not a historically high blowout. It matched the early September peak but was well off the 53 intraday spike in August. BUT, that was the flash crash, and the selling occurred in a three day window with a one-day binge. The current selling is a 12 session event to test those levels, and VIX has surpassed other interim levels and is in our opinion high enough.
The summation of all of these factors points to a market still in the longer term process of heading lower. Near term, however, the probabilities of a relief bounce, likely to the SP500 1990-1995 level, are much higher than a serious new downside decline. The latter can occur if there is sufficient provocation from world events, but in a technical and sentiment sense, the market is in excellent position to bounce. Now it is a matter of something sparking the move to cover shorts.
CHARTS
SP500: Undercut the August and September lows (1857.83 intraday low) and reversed to hold above the August closing low. SP500 is also holding two trendlines. One is from the October 2014 low and runs through the 2015 summer lows. The second is from . . . the March 2009 low through the 2011 closing lows and the 2012 June and November lows. When you put all of the indicators together, it certainly looks as if SP500 is poised for a bounce up to the mid-September closing peak at 1995 to form the apex of a right shoulder to its forming head and shoulders pattern. MACD is not racing higher, but it is attempting to hold above the August/early September low even as SP500 undercuts those prices. We want to play that bounce of 115 points with S&P options, take the gain, then load up on the downside.
NASDAQ: Undercut the September lows as well as the August closing low. Reversed off the lows but FAILED to recover either month's closing low. That said, if you look at a close line chart you see NASDAQ forming the same pattern, though not as clean, as SP500, a head and shoulders. Further, you know what often happens when there is a breach of support: people freak that support was broken, but the algos use it as a trading opportunity and buy, producing a false breakdown. We will have a front row seat to see if they are still playing that same game. If they are, we are playing it as well with some QLD or other index derivatives as well as choice names that are in position to move and can move well.
SOX: Gapped lower to a tight candlestick doji, undercutting the September low, closing just below those lows Still well above the August lows.
DJ30: Same pattern as SOX, below the September lows but well above the August lows.
RUTX: New lows on the week, indeed new lows for 2016, 2015 and 2014. It is at some support from a 2013 mini-peak and mini-dip during its ascent straight up that year, but that is nothing special as there are many of those that year.
SP400: On a different timeframe than SP500, but SP400 is working on its own head and shoulders starting back in Q1 2014. This last bomb lower undercut the two 2014 lows by a bit, and it is in position to make the bounce IF the buyers return.
LEADERHIP
We are looking across the entire market to identify sectors that are moving upside. We are not finding any of significance. Moves are scattered within sectors or are your typical bear market sectors, e.g. water utilities. Most of what we see are sectors already in bear markets from the prior year or the big name stocks in the throes of finally selling off after leading well after all other groups gave up.
The key for us now is to play upside when the probabilities favor an upside play. That will be the minority of the time. There are no doubt good patterns out there, e.g. ROVI, DDC, AMSC, but those are case-by-case stocks, AND even those are subject to the random sell program that sees a stock moving higher in a bear market and wants to short it. Or an analyst who feels it is too high in an overall weak market and needs to be downgraded on 'valuation.' Those stocks simply don't have the favor of the trend working for them anymore.
So, when the probabilities do get right, yes you look at upside plays that have held up and look solid to move higher; it is easier for them to do so as they already have buyers. Big moves can be made, however, on the beaten up stocks that are favorites. Indeed, they can siphon money away from stocks in solid uptrends when an overall relief bounce occurs.
What does all of that mean? There really are no leaders in the market right now, at least not the kind we want to play because there is not enough return in those stocks. We always watch for sectors that show signs of moving into leadership, and when that happens then we can prepare for a new uptrend. Right now that is not the case, and thus the bounce that appears to be setting up is nothing but a relief move to play on a bounce/trade basis and then sold.
Thus we look at stocks that can bounce when it is time to bounce. That time would appear to be now. And what bounces the most? Those quality stocks beaten down, e.g. MMM. Big Names that everyone loves, e.g. GOOG. Our goal is to pick a handful of those in great position and patterns to bounce and that people like to buy on a bounce OR that need to be covered on a bounce. We play those along with index derivatives on bounces, then play them downside on the flip-flop as the truckers used to say in the 1970's.
Big Names: GOOG is in the gap zone and if the market bounces then GOOG bounces to test the break. Prefer just downside on this one, letting it set back up. FB is holding the 200 day SMA the past two sessions and may be ready to try a bounce perhaps to 100; kind of tight. NFLX is at the 200 day SMA as well, making a round trip from mid-November back to 102. Maybe can bounce. AMZN has just about filled the gap from October. Could be a good bounce play in a short covering rally. AAPL is trying to find buyers the past week as it tests the August opening low. Interesting but the upside may be limited.
Energy: XEC looks very good for a bounce. GPOR ditto.
Electronics: AMSC is going lone wolf.
Utilities: EQT actually can make money.
Biotechs: Big names are beaten down and still don't look ready to rally. AMGN indeed looks ready to roll back over.
MARKET STATISTICS
NASDAQ
Stats: -126.59 points (-2.74%) to close at 4488.42
Volume: 2.685B (+8.02%)
Up Volume: 315.28M (-1.605B)
Down Volume: 2.49B (+1.874B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 4.7 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.16 to 1
New Highs: 8 (-1)
New Lows: 641 (+99)
S&P
Stats: -41.51 points (-2.16%) to close at 1880.33
NYSE Volume: 1.425B (+14.92%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 4.73 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.07 to 1
New Highs: 6 (0)
New Lows: 887 (+197)
DJ30
Stats: -390.97 points (-2.39%) to close at 15988.08
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 27.02; +3.07
VXN: 29.13; +3.17
VXO: 27.75; +3.08
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.52; +0.5
Recent history: 26 of 36 sessions above 1.0. Twelve straight at 1.0 or above. Definitely back to a point to support a rebound.
Bulls and Bears: Bulls plunged far below 35% while bears surged to 35.7%. A double bonus. Bears are over 35%, a bullish signals the same as bulls below 35%. In addition, bulls and bears crossed over, a very powerful upside signal. Last week we wondered if a crossover would come this week and it certainly did.
Bulls: 28.6 versus 34.7. Below 35% is bullish.
Bears: 35.7 versus 31.6. Above 35% is bullish.
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work, where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 28.6%
34.7% versus 36.7% versus 37.8% versus 44.9% versus 41.2% versus 45.4% versus 43.3% versus 45.3% versus 46.9% versus 43.7% versus 37.5% versus 36.5% versus 30.2% versus 24.7% versus 26.0% versus 26.8% versus 25.7% versus 27.8% versus 31.6% versus 37.7% versus 40.2% versus 42.2% versus 43.3% versus 49.0% versus 43.7% versus 44.8% versus 49.5
Background: Bulls hit their lowest level in 2015 since the 2008 and 2009 market plummet.
Bears: 35.7%
31.6% versus 29.6% versus 29.6% versus 27.6% versus 26.8% versus 26.8% versus 28.9% versus 28.1% versus 29.2% versus 31.3% versus 31.2% versus 34.4% versus 35.1% versus 30.2% versus 26.8% versus 27.9 versus 26.8% versus 22.5% versus 18.4% versus 18.6% versus 17.5% versus 17.5% versus 15.6% versus 15.6% versus 15.6% versus 15.4% versus 15.4% versus 16.5% versus 16.5% versus 15.8% versus 14.9% versus 15.8% versus 13.9%
Background: Over 35% for bears is the threshold to be really be a good upside indicator. The best indication is when bears cross up through bulls as the two merge. Both occurred in fall 2015.
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 2.03% versus 2.09%. Bonds continue the breakout though the 10 year did close off the early high that took it below 2%.
Historical: 2.09% versus 2.07% versus 2.105% versus 2.17% versus 2.11% versus 2.15% versus 2.18% versus 2.25% versus 2.18% versus 2.24% versus 2.27% versus 2.30% versus 2.30% versus 2.23% versus 2.26% versus 2.24% versus 2.20% versus 2.19% versus 2.24% versus 2.29% versus 2.27% versus 2.23% versus 2.13% versus 2.23% versus 2.21% versus 2.23% versus 2.23% versus 2.27% versus 2.33% versus 2.18%
EUR/USD: 1.0917 versus 1.0869. Dollar struggling but the euro tried to breakout but failed to hold the move.
Historical: 1.0869 versus 1.0879 versus 1.0851 versus 1.0854 versus 1.0921 versus 1.0937 versus 1.0789 versus 1.0748 versus 1.0835 versus 1.0934 versus 1.0928 versus 1.0972 versus 1.0963 versus 1.0917 versus 1.0953 versus 1.0920 versus 1.0868 versus 1.0818 versus 1.08334 versus 1.0934 versus 1.0992 versus 1.0987 versus 1.0944 versus 1.1029 versus 1.0892 versus 1.0844 versus 1.0872 versus 1.0948 versus 1.0595 versus 1.0625 versus 1.0566 versus 1.0592
USD/JPY: 117.02 versus 118.06. Breaking to a lower low after testing the 10 day EMA this past week.
Historical: 118.06 versus 117.72 versus 117.50 versus 117.73 versus 117.71 versus 117.24 versus 117.58 versus 118.25 versus 119.02 versus 119.397 versus 120.495 versus 120.45 versus 120.345 versus 120.295 versus 120.86 versus 121.01 versus 121.33 versus 122.30 versus 122.68 versus 122.35 versus 121.64 versus 120.85 versus 121.64 versus 121.40 versus 122.97 versus 123.28 versus 123.15 versus 122.49
Oil: 30.68, -0.53. Oil gapped upside then rolled back over, still struggling to get higher. Trend lower remains a trend for now.
Gold: 1088.60, +10.30. Trying to hold the handle, closing just over the 50 day SMA.
TUESDAY
The stock indices have set up a good bounce opportunity with extreme internals, extreme enough sentiment, and a good technical setup to bounce. We want to play the bounce with sensible plays that can make us money, take the gains, then look downside.
The question is whether the market wants to start the week with another test lower and reversal again. It would actually be our preference to start weak on Tuesday and building into the rebound versus a gap higher that will once again be a target for short sellers. Let the market go down a bit more, show the shorts it is not going to head lower than it has. That sets up a foundation for a decent short covering led relief move.
Thus, if there is early weakness or basically flat trade Tuesday, we like the upside if the market starts a solid move off of that. If there is early strength we want to see how that tests and how it holds the move, i.e. how the shorts treat it. If they don't want to sell further, okay then. While we certainly want to play a very tradable move up to SP500 1990 -1995 to capture some money for the taking, that move is not going to be the big move for the rest of the year. That move can make us some good money but in the bigger picture it is not where we are going to make most of our money for the year. Accordingly a bit of caution is warranted until the market shows it is bouncing.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 4488.42
Resistance:
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August 2015 low.
The 10 day EMA at 4681
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4774 is the January high
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4814 is the gap point from last week.
4815 is the December 2014 prior market peak
The March lows at 4843 and 4825
4828 is the late August peak
4837 is the late August 2015 rebound high
4902 is the July 2015 low
The 50 day EMA at 4905
4912 the mid-April China dip
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October
The 200 day SMA at 4969
The June low at 4974
4999 is the October upper gap point
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5042 is the March 2015 high
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5164 is the June 2015 peak, 5175 is the August intraday peak
5232 is the July high
Support:
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
4352 is the March 2014 peak
4292 is the August 2015 low
S&P 500: Closed at 1880.33
Resistance:
1897 is the prior all-time high hit in April 2014
1902 from early May was the intraday all-time high.
1905 is the August 2014 low
1913 is the early September 2015 closing low testing the bounce from the August selling
The 10 day EMA at 1940
1972 is the December 2014 low
1989 is the last August closing high
1991 is the July 2014 high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
2011 is the September prior all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2015
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
The 200 day SMA at 2055
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2094 is the December 2014 high, the prior all-time high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2119.59 is the February intraday prior all-time high
2126 was the April prior all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
Support:
1883.57 is the early March high.
1872 is the September 2015 test low of the August low
1867 is the August 2015 low
1862 is the October 2014 closing low
Dow: Closed at 15988.08
Resistance:
16,026 is the April 2014 low
16,058 is the early September 2015 low
16,117 is the October 2014 closing low
16,368 is the August 2014 low
16,506 is the March 2014 peak
The 10 day EMA at 16,530
16,589 is the December 2013 all-time high
16,632 is the April 2014 all-time high
16,665 is the late August 2015 closing high. Key, key level.
16,670 is the December 2014 peak and the recent August 2015 relief bounce peak.
16,736 is a prior all-time high from May 2014
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery peak
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17,152 is the mid-July post bear market high
The 50 day EMA at 17,165
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
The 200 day SMA at 17,467
June 2015 low at 17,715
17,748 is the mid-April China margin selloff and the bottom of the 5 month trading range
The March low at 17,786
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
Support:
15,666 is the August 2015 low
15,372 is the February 2014 low
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
January 15 - Friday
Retail Sales, December (8:30): -0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.4% prior (revised from 0.2%)
Retail Sales ex-auto, December (8:30): -0.1% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior (revised from 0.4%)
PPI, December (8:30): -0.2% actual versus -0.1% expected, 0.3% prior
Core PPI, December (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior
Empire Manufacturing, January (8:30): -19.4 actual versus -3.5 expected, -6.2 prior (revised from -4.6)
Industrial Production, December (9:15): -0.4% actual versus -0.2% expected, -0.9% prior (revised from -0.6%)
Capacity Utilization, December (9:15): 76.5% actual versus 76.9% expected, 76.9% prior (revised from 77.0%)
Michigan Sentiment, January (10:00): 93.3 actual versus 92.6 expected, 92.6 prior
Business Inventories, November (10:00): -0.2% actual versus 0.0% expected, -0.1% prior (revised from 0.0%)
January 19 - Tuesday
NAHB Housing Market , January (10:00): 61 expected, 61 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, November (16:00): -$16.6B prior
January 20 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 01/16 (7:00): +21.3% prior
CPI, December (8:30): 0.0% expected, 0.0% prior
Core CPI, December (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Housing Starts, December (8:30): 1197K expected, 1173K prior
Building Permits, December (8:30): 1200K expected, 1289K prior
Crude Inventories, 01/16 (10:30): 0.234M prior
January 21 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 01/16 (8:30): 280K expected, 284K prior
Continuing Claims, 01/09 (8:30): 2263K prior
Philadelphia Fed, January (8:30): -4.0 expected, -5.9 prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 01/16 (10:30): -168 bcf prior
January 22 - Friday
Existing Home Sales, December (10:00): 5.12M expected, 4.76M prior
Leading Indicators, December (10:00): -0.1% expected, 0.4% prior
End part 1 of 3
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