The Daily, Part 1 of 2, 11-25-16

* * * *
11/25/2016 Investment House Daily
* * * *

MARKET ALERTS:

Thanksgiving Schedule
Monday, Tuesday: Normal reports
Wednesday: Market statistics updates, play tables
Thursday: No report
Friday: Alerts
Weekend: Market statistics updates, play tables

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

********************************************************************

The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.

MARKET SUMMARY

- Stocks end Thanksgiving week with solid gains. What if they had a whole
session?
- Oil and gold still lower, FAANG still not aiding the upside.
- Indices extended, many stocks still in good position, so we will see how
the new week favors them.

All stock indices moved higher Friday in the half-session session,
overcoming some pre-Thanksgiving indecision.

SP500 8.63, 0.39%
NASDAQ 18.24, 0.34%
DJ30 68.96, 0.36%
SP400 0.32%
RUTX 0.38%
SOX 0.19%

Of course volume was lower - half session - but the impressive upside run
continued. Once again the FAANG played no upside role. That was left to
the same leaders, e.g. metals, semiconductors, industrials.

Straight up for the small caps for almost 3 weeks and higher highs for all
but NASDAQ 100. DJ20 is not far from confirming DJ30's new high as it
approaches its late 2014 prior high.

With the half session and some slower all around moves (in most cases), we
opted to not initiate any new positions but wait and see how the new week
treats stocks. They are a bit oversold in terms of the small caps and
midcaps though the large cap indices still have ground to gain before they
are overextended.


MARKET STATS

NASDAQ
Stats: +18.24 points (+0.34%) to close at 5398.92
Volume: 759.893M (-55.16%)

Up Volume: 509.47M (-351.42M)
Down Volume: 236.22M (-477.81M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.79 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.43 to 1

New Highs: 313 (-55)
New Lows: 16 (-19)

S&P
Stats: +8.63 points (+0.39%) to close at 2213.35
NYSE Volume: 409.1M (-50.72%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.83 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.02 to 1

New Highs: 219 (-43)
New Lows: 79 (-33)

DJ30
Stats: +68.96 points (+0.36%) to close at 19152.14


SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 12.34; -0.09
VXN: 14.39; +0.13
VXO: 12.08; +0.04

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.8; -0.16

12 of 20 sessions over 1.0 on the close.


Bulls and Bears: Bulls are up 13 points in 3 weeks, quickly moving back to
a level getting close to extreme for this market. Indeed, bulls are near
the last high that led to some selling, but really a move near 60 is where
the most headwinds are met.

Bulls: 55.6 versus 51.0

Bears: 21.6 versus 23.5

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 55.6 versus 51.0
51.0 versus 42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7
versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7
versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5%
versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus
45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2

Bears: 21.6 versus 23.5
23.5 versus 25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8
versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2
versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7%
versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus
23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus
21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3%
versus 35.4%


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds (10 year): 2.36% versus 2.355%

Historical: 2.355% versus 2.317% versus 2.30% versus 2.34% versus 2.297%
versus 2.219% versus 2.22% versus 2.23% versus 2.14% versus 2.077% versus
1.867% versus 1.83% versus 1.778% versus 1.81% versus 1.797% versus 1.827%
versus 1.83% versus 1.85% versus 1.84% versus 1.791% versus 1.76% versus
1.76% versus 1.73% versus 1.75% versus 1.74% versus 1.74% versus 1.766%
versus 1.80% versus 1.746% versus 1.78% versus 1.723% versus 1.72% versus
1.74% versus 1.72% versus 1.69% versus 1.622% versus 1.60% versus 1.56%
versus 1.569% versus 1.56% versus 1.584% versus 1.62%


EUR/USD: 1.05910 versus 1.05519

Historical: 1.05519 versus 1.0672 versus 1.06265 versus 1.0587 versus 1.0650
versus 1.07026 versus 1.0725 versus 1.07492 versus 1.0858 versus 1.08898
versus 1.09398 versus 1.10186 versus 1.10327 versus 1.11406 versus 1.11059
versus 1.11020 versus 1.10560 versus 1.09646 versus 1.09860 versus 1.08963
versus 1.0895 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08851 versus 1.0928
versus 1.0971 versus 1.0977 versus 1.10217 versus 1.0966 versus 1.10536
versus 1.1032 versus 1.10598 versus 1.1233 versus 1.1183 versus 1.1147
versus 1.12052 versus 1.12091 versus 1.12066 versus 1.1239 versus 1.1218
versus 1.1228 versus 1.2148 versus 1.1254 versus 1.1248 versus 1.12259


USD/JPY: 113.14 versus 112.445

Historical: 112.445 versus 111.129 versus 110.809 versus 110.905 versus
110.240 versus 109.07 versus 108.164 versus 107.455 versus 106.621 versus
106.814 versus 105.192 versus 101.286 versus 104.386 versus 103.112 versus
102.96 versus 103.350 versus 104.042 versus 104.798 versus 104.710 versus
105.305 versus 104.412 versus 104.2110 versus 104.331 versus 103.83 versus
103.99 versus 103.99 versus 103.602 versus 103.892 versus 103.815 versus
104.201 versus 103.634 versus 103.690 versus 103.698 versus 103.95 versus
103.159 versus 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus 102.035 versus
101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55 versus 100.75 versus
101.034 versus 101.045 versus 100.386


Oil: 46.41, -1.55. Saudi Arabia not attending a non-OPEC meeting is the
supposed cause. Hey, it's non-OPEC people.

Gold: 1178.40, -10.90. The selling continues.

End part 1 of 2
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The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 11-19-16

* * * *
11/19/2016 Investment House Daily
* * * *

MARKET ALERTS:

Thanksgiving Schedule
Monday, Tuesday: Normal reports
Wednesday: Market statistics updates, play tables
Thursday: No report
Friday: Alerts
Weekend: Market statistics updates, play tables

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: LRCX; MAN
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.

TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4

TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4

TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************

The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.

MARKET SUMMARY

- More of the same as SOX, RUTX surge.
- DJ30 actually taking a breather as NASDAQ and SP500 make important tests
of the prior highs.
- Even as some early leaders test, other sectors are breaking higher.
- Market showing plenty of leadership as money rotates through the sectors.
- Shorter week with Thanksgiving may not show a definitive change.

DJ30 rallies 5.8% off its pre-election low, SP400 9%. There was supposed
to be a market crash. Wish it had as our plan was to buy the selloff. But
not. Ford announces it will not move its Kentucky plant to Mexico after
all. Apple says it is considering manufacturing iPhones in the US. What
happens next? Mexico agrees to a wall? Hey, it might happen, just not
between the US and Mexico but between Mexico and Central America. And maybe
the US will HELP pay for that one. Nothing seems too crazy right now, does
it? Or maybe it seems crazy, but that is not stopping it from happening.

We will see. Friday the market, at least part of it, finally took a
breather. DJ30 is working on a lateral move, holding its gains. The rest
of the market, however, continues higher with SOX leading the way with its
surge upside. RUTX as well.

SP500 -5.22, -0.24%
NASDAQ -12.46, -0.23%
DJ30 -35.89, -0.19%
SP400 0.04%
RUTX 0.47%
SOX 0.67%

VOLUME: NYSE +5%, NASDAQ -12%

A/D: NYSE -1.2:1, NASDAQ +1.2:1. Yes, pretty atrocious breadth but some
solid moves, e.g. semiconductors.


Money is chasing sectors, just not all at once. Thus some pretty weak
breadth but some pretty strong moves in groups of stocks such as the chips
and some techs last week. This while industrial equipment/machinery,
metals, financials -- the early leaders post-election -- consolidate the
gains. Heck, some are already in position to move higher after their tests,
e.g. BAC, LLNW, FCX -- there are a few.

There is quite a bit of talk about the rally being a one-hit wonder, a surge
that burns itself out. That may turn out to be the case, but looking at
sector after sector, stock after stock this weekend we see stocks not
rolling over but consolidating, setting up for their next moves upside. Of
course even as they do this, other stocks are surging as already noted.

Not that anything has changed yet, at least substantively. What we are
noticing, however, is a lot of new activity that is apparently in
anticipation of growth to come. Even CNBC commentators who are more left
leaning were describing optimism at the prospect of economic growth versus 8
years of no growth. That is the way they put it, not me.

I have talked with many small business heads who say that the phone is
ringing with customers planning to produce more, buy more, etc., all in
anticipation of growth. The ironic thing is that can be the very thing that
ignites it, then the tax changes, regulatory rollbacks, agency stand down
orders give it the fuel to really take hold and surge. We will see.


THE MARKET

CHARTS

SOX: Surging 6 of 8 sessions to a new post-2000 high, adding another 0.67%
Friday. Some great moves from NVDA, LRCX, MU, and company is fueling the
chips upside. When the other indices started to take a breather, SOX hit
the accelerator.

RUTX: The small caps are fairly incredible. Eleven straight upside
sessions off the low from early November. At some point it has to run low
on gas and take a breather. Has not come to that point yet.

SP400: The midcaps rose 9 of 10 sessions prior to Friday. Managed a gain
to end the week but gapped to a tight doji. May be out of gas near term but
has not shown it. Likely tests before too long. A test of the last peak in
September at 1580ish would be pretty normal.

NASDAQ: After a 3-day rest through Monday, NASDAQ rallied to test the prior
high from September. Broke it on the Friday high, just could not hold it.
Faded to a modest loss on lower volume. Okay, a very critical test for
NASDAQ. It has made it to the prior highs similar to the dog catching the
car. Now what? A modest test through Wednesday and then a new break higher
would be great.

SP500: A solid, if on again off again, rally after the 3 day lateral test
into Monday. Rallied to the 2016 trendline on the Thursday and Friday
highs, faded to a loss Friday. SP500 is at the August all-time highs, and
similar to NASDAQ, after that consolidation that gave it the strength to
rally to this point, it now has to show it can break on through.

DJ30: After that surge higher into this past week, the Dow is testing and
resting, moving in a very tight lateral move, refusing to give up ground.
Many financial and metals stocks show the same action, moving laterally in a
tight range, being stingy with their gains.


LEADERSHIP

Big Names: The FAANG still struggle overall but some rebounds. FB bombed
Monday but recovered to test the 200 day SMA Friday. AMZN rebounded all
week off its bomb lower, showing a tombstone doji Friday below the 20 day
EMA. AAPL bounced off the 200 day SMA. NFLX sold to the 50 day EMA, held
it, and is working laterally, trying to make the break higher. GOOG
recovered off its Monday selloff below the 200 day SMA, making it back to
the 50 day EMA.

Metals: Tight lateral moves post-surge. AKS, FCX -- setting up for new
moves.

Financial: Tight lateral moves for many here as well. BAC, JPM, GS, STT.

Chips: Solid moves. LRCX hit the target, faded back some. NVDA still
rallying. MU breaking higher again. AMAT as well. XLNX making a 1-2-3
pullback.

Internet: LLNW testing a nice move. LIVE moved well last week.

Software: Some good moves and continued good setups. RHT surged though was
off Friday. BLKB has a good setup. VMW moved well last week. FFIV still
trending up the 10 day EMA.

Oil: Some still solid setups and moves. WLL working well. APC holding
support. RIG rallying nicely last week. PDS in great position to move
higher.

Biotech: Some big names still look solid, e.g. BIIB, CELG.


MARKET STATS

NASDAQ
Stats: -12.46 points (-0.23%) to close at 5321.51
Volume: 1.826B (-12.3%)

Up Volume: 972.62M (-397.38M)
Down Volume: 854.27M (+178.52M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.18 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.6 to 1

New Highs: 287 (-10)
New Lows: 42 (+2)

S&P
Stats: -5.22 points (-0.24%) to close at 2181.9
NYSE Volume: 900M (+5.19%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.12 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.11 to 1

New Highs: 149 (-25)
New Lows: 128 (+34)

DJ30
Stats: -35.89 points (-0.19%) to close at 18867.93


SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 12.85; -0.5
VXN: 15.51; -0.51
VXO: 12.91; -0.31

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.94; +0.07

11 of 16 sessions over 1.0 on the close. 4 of 5 sessions back below 1.0
after a long streak over 1.0 on the close. That gave plenty of upside
impetus and the market is using it.


Bulls and Bears: Bears post their greatest numbers in months and stocks
then rally. Not at extreme levels either way, just working back toward each
other after diverging.

Bulls: 51.0 versus 42.9

Bears: 23.5 versus 25.7

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 51.0 versus 42.9
42.9 versus 41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2
versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2
versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1%
versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus
35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2

Bears: 23.5 versus 25.7
25.7 versus 24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1
versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0
versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus
24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7%
versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7%
versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus
35.4%


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds (10 year): 2.34% versus 2.297%. Bonds continue to sell off here and
around the world. China, Saudi Arabia selling US Treasuries for their own
economic struggle reasons while Japan is buying its own bonds and US bonds
for its own economic struggles.

Historical: 2.297% versus 2.219% versus 2.22% versus 2.23% versus 2.14%
versus 2.077% versus 1.867% versus 1.83% versus 1.778% versus 1.81% versus
1.797% versus 1.827% versus 1.83% versus 1.85% versus 1.84% versus 1.791%
versus 1.76% versus 1.76% versus 1.73% versus 1.75% versus 1.74% versus
1.74% versus 1.766% versus 1.80% versus 1.746% versus 1.78% versus 1.723%
versus 1.72% versus 1.74% versus 1.72% versus 1.69% versus 1.622% versus
1.60% versus 1.56% versus 1.569% versus 1.56% versus 1.584% versus 1.62%


EUR/USD: 1.0587 versus 1.06500. Euro getting crushed the past two weeks.

Historical: 1.0650 versus 1.07026 versus 1.0725 versus 1.07492 versus 1.0858
versus 1.08898 versus 1.09398 versus 1.10186 versus 1.10327 versus 1.11406
versus 1.11059 versus 1.11020 versus 1.10560 versus 1.09646 versus 1.09860
versus 1.08963 versus 1.0895 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08851
versus 1.0928 versus 1.0971 versus 1.0977 versus 1.10217 versus 1.0966
versus 1.10536 versus 1.1032 versus 1.10598 versus 1.1233 versus 1.1183
versus 1.1147 versus 1.12052 versus 1.12091 versus 1.12066 versus 1.1239
versus 1.1218 versus 1.1228 versus 1.2148 versus 1.1254 versus 1.1248 versus
1.12259


USD/JPY: 110.905 versus 110.240. Still surging against the yen

Historical: 110.240 versus 109.07 versus 108.164 versus 107.455 versus
106.621 versus 106.814 versus 105.192 versus 101.286 versus 104.386 versus
103.112 versus 102.96 versus 103.350 versus 104.042 versus 104.798 versus
104.710 versus 105.305 versus 104.412 versus 104.2110 versus 104.331 versus
103.83 versus 103.99 versus 103.99 versus 103.602 versus 103.892 versus
103.815 versus 104.201 versus 103.634 versus 103.690 versus 103.698 versus
103.95 versus 103.159 versus 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus
102.035 versus 101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55 versus
100.75 versus 101.034 versus 101.045 versus 100.386


Oil: 46.36, +0.38. Continuing its recovery off the 200 day SMA test but
still a dog fight and the going is slow. More hope for an OPEC deal was
said to help Friday. Really needs it given a certain shale formation in the
Permian Basin is said to hold billions more barrels of oil. Billions. 10
to 20 billion.

Gold: 1208.70, -8.20. Gold tried to bounce early week, has failed, falling
to a lower low on this selling, though holding the mid-summer low. As noted
before, if inflation is supposed to result from the proposed economic plans,
why is gold selling while stocks related to growth surge? Because the
Phillips Curve the Fed and most 'in vogue' economists use is simply wrong.
Wrong, wrong, wrong.


MONDAY

After the launch higher pre- and post-election you would expect the stock
indices to test. RUTX and SP400 have been juggernauts, surging on a
stronger dollar and the prospect of improved business. Sure some carp about
the stronger dollar impacting earnings, but those are the big multinationals
that have had all the breaks, all of the favored regulations in this current
economy. The prospect of actual growth has shot the smaller cap stocks
higher.

Again, after such a surge you would expect a test. As noted, SP500 and
NASDAQ are at important tests of prior highs and this week will show their
strength in whether they test and if so, how they test.

Thing is, the stock sectors are testing, they are just doing it within the
overall indices. Financials, metals are holding their gains as they
consolidate while other groups push higher, e.g. software and chips. That
keeps the indices elevated even as they 'test.'

So, instead of expecting a pullback across the board we are looking at
stocks that are set up to move higher for new opportunities even as others
that led the charge consolidate. As noted earlier, some of those early
leaders are already in position to move higher again after their
consolidations.

Obviously we are looking at those for next week. Some can test farther
before they are ready, but the patterns are solid and we want to be ready of
they go ahead on and rally early week. Don't want to chase the bus but
instead by ready.

It is also Thanksgiving week with the market closed Thursday and open a half
session Friday. That may put a lid on the action upside or downside, but in
the past Thanksgiving week has delivered some fireworks. If we see some
good moves we will play them.

Have a great weekend!


SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

NASDAQ: Closed at 5321.51

Resistance:
5340 is the September all-time closing high.

Support:
5309 is the late October lower high
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5275 is the 2016 up trendline
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
The 50 day SMA at 5243
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 5222
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
The 200 day SMA at 4978
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low


S&P 500: Closed at 2181.90

Resistance:
The 2016 trendline at 2188
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high

Support:
2175 is the June 2016 high
The 10 day EMA at 2165
The 50 day EMA at 2148
The 50 day SMA at 2146
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
The 200 day SMA at 2096
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high


Dow: Closed at 18,867.93

Resistance:

Support:
The 10 day EMA at 18,713
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
The 50 day EMA at 18,370
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
The 50 day SMA at 18,280
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
The 200 day SMA at 17,893
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak


ECONOMIC CALENDAR

November 22 - Tuesday
Existing Home Sales, October (10:00): 5.40M expected, 5.47M prior

November 23 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 11/19 (7:00): -9.2% prior
Continuing Claims, 11/12 (8:30)
Durable Orders, October (8:30): -0.1% prior
Initial Claims, 11/19 (8:30): 243K expected, 235K prior
Continuing Claims, 11/12 (8:30): 1977K prior
Durable Orders, Ex- , October (8:30): 0.2% prior
Durable Orders, October (8:30): 1.1% expected, -0.1% prior
Durable Orders, Ex- , October (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.2% prior
FHFA Housing Price I, September (9:00): 0.7% prior
Michigan Sentiment -, November (10:00)
New Home Sales, October (10:00): 587K expected, 593K prior
Michigan Sentiment -, November (10:00): 91.6 expected, 91.6 prior
Crude Inventories, 11/19 (10:30): 5.274M prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 11/19 (10:30): 30 bcf prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 11/19 (24:00): 30 bcf prior
FOMC Minutes, November 2 (14:00)

November 24 - Thursday
Continuing Claims, 11/12 (8:30)
Initial Claims, 11/19 (8:30)
Natural Gas Inventor, 11/19 (10:30)

November 25 - Friday
International Trade , October (8:30): -$56.1B prior
Advance Wholesale In, October (8:30): 0.2% expected, +0.2% prior

End part 1 of 3
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The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 11-12-16

* * * *
11/12/2016 Investment House Daily
* * * *

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: NVDA
Entry alerts: MU
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.

TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4

TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4

********************************************************************

The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.

MARKET SUMMARY

- Dow, RUTX continue their surge, SP400 and SOX join in.
- NASDAQ and SP500 have a tougher week and an important one ahead.
- Chips trying to recover, riding NVDA's earnings.
- Big move on news. Now looking for a pause and see if it holds.

Life breathed into the market this past week, first in relief that Clinton
was sure to win as the FBI proved itself useless yet again, second with
excitement that Trump would bring growth policies back to the US. Fickle?
Of course. The market finds a reason to do what it wants. The notion of
real stimulus after 7 years of nothing but FOMC artificially low to no rates
is indeed exciting. As is the removal of regulations and taxes that have
killed the US middle class and thus its built-in source of creativity,
supply, and demand. That is worth a few stock market points.

Friday the stock indices continued higher though for some it was not a
straight shot higher and indeed, SP500 closed the session negative. NASDAQ
was up after the sharp Thursday reversal, but it was nothing that makes you
feel warm.

On the other hand, RUTX exploded higher, now less than 2 points from the
2015 all-time high. SP400 midcaps added another percent, moving past the
2015 high and on its way to challenge the September all-time high. DJ30
posted a modest move but a new high again. SOX recovered the trendline and
surpassed the late October lower high.

SP500 -3.03, -0.14%
NASDAQ 28.31, 0.54%
DJ30 39.78, 0.21%
SP400 0.99%
RUTX 2.46%
SOX 3.86%

VOLUME: NYSE -15%, NASDAQ -24%. It had to drop at some point and better it
falls on a day when DJ3, NASDAQ, and definitely SP500 did not have their
best showing of the week. Still above average, solid upside volume on the
week.

A/D: NYSE 1.2:1, NASDAQ 2.3:1. Still not huge breadth as some areas get
money, other areas lose money.

The indices have surged all week, more or less, some areas getting much more
attention as money rotated to Trump stimulus areas and out of those that had
led the move and were dropped like hot rocks. Some opined it was something
to do with animosity between Trump and silicon valley, but that is
poppycock. The market was simply shifting to new leadership.

Now we would like to see a pause. The move was strong and if the leadership
groups show a pause or test we can use that. It may not be anything more
than a pause similar to what C did Friday; powerful moves often just need a
pause to refresh and then they go again. Thus, we will look at playing some
pauses such as more positions on C, but didn't spot a ton of those on the
early scans. There could also be some movement back into tech that was
under pressure earlier in the week. Some good setups appear.

Of course there is the possibility that the 'Clinton will win, Trump won so
let's rally anyway' rally runs out of steam. NASDAQ looks far from well and
SP500 is still challenged. If money is simply rotating, however, that
explains the uneven stock index movement. Still, after such a good run you
see how the indices test and if it is just a test. There is not much if any
fear in the market right now and that is always worth considering. A bit.

We booked some strong gain on NVDA as it surged 30% on earnings, leaving
some to continue working. Picked up some MU as the chips showed some
resilience. Didn't want to play 'chase the bus' with other positions and
will see what kind of pause/test or otherwise early next week brings. Will
there be buyer's remorse? Will there be a Wiley Coyote moment when the
rally realizes there are still mega issues facing the economy? Not likely,
so we will look for entry points in the week to come but also keep an eye
out for the edge of that cliff.


THE MARKET

CHARTS

NASDAQ: Gapped upside Monday off of the dive lower and looked strong
through Wednesday. Thursday a gap higher and reversed hard, then Friday a
gain up to the 50 day SMA but a rather so-so, mediocre move. That leaves
NASDAQ both below the 50 day SMA and the 2016 trendline. NASDAQ still has a
lot of resistance, not even in the last range where the former high resides.
Critical week for NASDAQ as this past week it lost a lot of money as the
FANG and other big names sold hard. When you consider how those stocks were
pounded, NASDAQ held up pretty darn well.

SP500: The other questionable index was SP500. It surged through
Wednesday, looking strong as it matched the late September/early October
range as well as the 2016 up trendline. Thursday it showed a big doji,
giving up an early move past that resistance. Friday SP500 was lower, but
it managed to hang on with a doji. As with NASDAQ and its shaky
performance, this is a critical week for SP500.

DJ30: Still moving upside through Friday after a strong Monday to Thursday
surge. New high on the week, looking strong thanks to its financial and
industrial components.

RUTX: As powerful as the Dow, moving in on an all-time high hit in 2015.

SP400: Gapped to a doji Thursday after a strong Monday to Wednesday, the
2015 high acting as resistance. Friday a new surge took SP400 through the
2015 peak and has the midcaps just under 20 points from a new high. Now at
the gap point from early September, some resistance after a strong 90 point
rally.

SOX: Was on the ropes Thursday with a gap higher and reversal to undercut
the 50 day MA's. Then Friday a new break higher and back through the
summertime trendline. Higher high over the late October peak and looking
solid once again. Of course NVDA helped it tremendously, but other chips
are looking better as well.


MARKET STATS

NASDAQ
Stats: +28.32 points (+0.54%) to close at 5237.11
Volume: 2.228B (-23.56%)

Up Volume: 1.63B (+220M)
Down Volume: 633.45M (-916.55M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 2.33 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.56 to 1

New Highs: 373 (+4)
New Lows: 58 (-19)

S&P
Stats: -3.03 points (-0.14%) to close at 2164.45
NYSE Volume: 1.2B (-15.19%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.18 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.16 to 1

New Highs: 213 (-63)
New Lows: 198 (+16)

DJ30
Stats: +39.78 points (+0.21%) to close at 18847.66


SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 14.17; -0.57
VXN: 18.95; -0.12
VXO: 14.19; -0.99

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.07; +0.18

Back above 1.0 after one day off. 10 of 11 sessions over 1.0 on the close.
Plenty of downside speculation.


Bulls and Bears: Bears post their greatest numbers in months and stocks
then rally. Not at extreme levels either way, just working back toward each
other after diverging.

Bulls: 42.9 versus 41.7

Bears: 25.7 versus 24.3

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 42.9 versus 41.7
41.7 versus 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6
versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3
versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus
41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4%
versus 40.2 versus 39.2

Bears: 25.7 versus 24.3
24.3 versus 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3
versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9%
versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus
23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0%
versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8%
versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds (10 year): Bond market closed. 2.14% close Thursday.

Historical: 2.14% versus 2.077% versus 1.867% versus 1.83% versus 1.778%
versus 1.81% versus 1.797% versus 1.827% versus 1.83% versus 1.85% versus
1.84% versus 1.791% versus 1.76% versus 1.76% versus 1.73% versus 1.75%
versus 1.74% versus 1.74% versus 1.766% versus 1.80% versus 1.746% versus
1.78% versus 1.723% versus 1.72% versus 1.74% versus 1.72% versus 1.69%
versus 1.622% versus 1.60% versus 1.56% versus 1.569% versus 1.56% versus
1.584% versus 1.62%


EUR/USD: 1.0858 versus 1.08898. Euro bombed Wednesday to Friday but
managed to hold at the late October low on the Friday close. Perhaps a
bounce is in order.

Historical: 1.08898 versus 1.09398 versus 1.10186 versus 1.10327 versus
1.11406 versus 1.11059 versus 1.11020 versus 1.10560 versus 1.09646 versus
1.09860 versus 1.08963 versus 1.0895 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08793 versus
1.08851 versus 1.0928 versus 1.0971 versus 1.0977 versus 1.10217 versus
1.0966 versus 1.10536 versus 1.1032 versus 1.10598 versus 1.1233 versus
1.1183 versus 1.1147 versus 1.12052 versus 1.12091 versus 1.12066 versus
1.1239 versus 1.1218 versus 1.1228 versus 1.2148 versus 1.1254 versus 1.1248
versus 1.12259


USD/JPY: 106.621 versus 106.814. Broke through the 200 day SMA against the
yen last week and closed out at the July high.

Historical: 106.814 versus 105.192 versus 101.286 versus 104.386 versus
103.112 versus 102.96 versus 103.350 versus 104.042 versus 104.798 versus
104.710 versus 105.305 versus 104.412 versus 104.2110 versus 104.331 versus
103.83 versus 103.99 versus 103.99 versus 103.602 versus 103.892 versus
103.815 versus 104.201 versus 103.634 versus 103.690 versus 103.698 versus
103.95 versus 103.159 versus 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus
102.035 versus 101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55 versus
100.75 versus 101.034 versus 101.045 versus 100.386


Oil: 43.41, -1.25. Oil tried to bounce on the week but was knocked back to
a lower low and support at 43 on the Friday low.

Gold: 1224.30, -42.10. There is a lot of talk about inflation resulting
from a Trump fiscal package, but if there is inflation anticipated, gold
should be higher as a hedge. Obviously it is not that great of an inflation
expectation.



SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

NASDAQ: Closed at 5237.11

Resistance:
The 50 day SMA at 5238
5252 is the 2016 up trendline
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5340 is the recent all-time closing high.

Support:
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 5207
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
The 200 day SMA at 4958
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low


S&P 500: Closed at 2164.45

Resistance:
2175 is the June 2016 high
The 2016 trendline at 2179
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high

Support:
The 50 day SMA at 2145
The 50 day EMA at 2142
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
The 200 day SMA at 2090
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high


Dow: Closed at 18,847.66

Resistance:

Support:
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
The 50 day EMA at 18,256
18,247 is the August 2016 low
The 50 day SMA at 18,234
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,960 is the October intraday low
The 200 day SMA at 17,829
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak


ECONOMIC CALENDAR

November 11 - Friday
Michigan Sentiment, November (10:00): 91.6 actual versus 87.9 expected, 87.2
prior

November 15 - Tuesday
Retail Sales, October (8:30): 0.6% expected, 0.6% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, October (8:30): 0.5% expected, 0.5% prior
Export Prices ex-ag., October (8:30): 0.4% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, October (8:30): 0.0% prior
Empire Manufacturing, November (8:30): -0.5 expected, -6.8 prior
Business Inventories, September (10:00): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior

November 16 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 11/12 (7:00): -1.2% prior
PPI, October (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.3% prior
Core PPI, October (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Industrial Productio, October (9:15): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Capacity Utilization, October (9:15): 75.5% expected, 75.4% prior
NAHB Housing Market , November (10:00): 64 expected, 63 prior
Crude Inventories, 11/12 (10:30): 2.432M prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, September (16:00): $48.3B prior

November 17 - Thursday
CPI, October (8:30): 0.4% expected, 0.3% prior
Core CPI, October (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Housing Starts, October (8:30): 1178K expected, 1047K prior
Building Permits, October (8:30): 1200K expected, 1225K prior
Initial Claims, 11/12 (8:30): 257K expected, 254K prior
Continuing Claims, 11/05 (8:30): 2041K prior
Philadelphia Fed, November (8:30): 7.0 expected, 9.7 prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 11/12 (10:30): 54 bcf prior

End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
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The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 11-5-16

* * * *
11/5/2016 Investment House Daily
* * * *

MARKET ALERTS:

Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: MRVL

The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html

********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.

TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4

TO VIEW THE NEWS/ECONOMY OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/eco/eco.mp4

TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4

TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************

The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:

Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.

Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.

Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.

If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.

MARKET SUMMARY

- Jobs miss and don't miss, and yes, show the same structural issues.
- Wages, as with jobs, are not what they appear to be.
- Stock indices try to rally on the jobs report but fail the effort.
- RUTX, SP400 suggest the market is just about sold out for now.
- A surge in workers out of the workforce, plummeting full-time jobs, record
workers working multiple jobs, and more manufacturing jobs losses. Yes that
was a great jobs report.
- Dollar lower, bonds sell, gold rallies. Strange action for solid economic
data and a Fed set to raise rates.
- A big week with more earnings and an election. Just treat it as usual.

The Friday Jobs Report was bad enough and good enough to keep the stock
indices status quo. Oh, there was a lot of movement between the bells, but
by the end of the session you had SP500, SP400 and RUTX sitting over their
200 day MA while NASDAQ and DJ30 played catch up to the downside, dropping a
quarter percent each.

SP500 -3.48, -0.17%
NASDAQ -12.04, -0.24%
DJ30 -42.39, -0.24%
SP400 0.15%
RUTX 0.57%
SOX -0.63%

VOLUME: NYSE +1%, NASDAQ -3%. After volume accelerated on NASDAQ on the
week it backed off but is still well above average on the selling. NYSE
trade is still above average, making it 8 straight sessions.

A/D: NYSE 1.1:1, NASDAQ 1.1:1. The small and midcaps helped out breadth.

Futures were up modestly but sold at the open. Nothing new there for this
week. After a half hour downside, however, a bid returned. Stocks pushed
higher to midmorning then faltered. At that time a rumor hit that the FBI's
Comey was readying an announcement regarding the Weiner/Clinton connection.
It made an inkling of sense; Comey announced the prior Friday that the
Clinton email investigation was back on. The peso started to rally and
stocks, revitalized, resumed their upside move into early afternoon.

Then, no Comey. Stocks moved laterally for 1.5 hours, then tumbled. I
guess the jobs data was not that great after all, and without the FBI making
another By the close they gave up the morning gains. Quite the symmetry in
the Friday intraday action.

SOX gapped below its 50 day EMA and could not hold the intraday recovery
over that level. First close below the 50 day EMA since early July. Gee,
sure looks as if it is following NASDAQ, SP400, and RUTX before it. It
still could be saved by the other indices finding the 200 day SMA and making
a bounce from that level.

SP500 tested down to the 200 day SMA, bounced, then faded it all. A big
hammer doji sitting on the 200 day SMA, still in position to rebound.

SP400 and RUTX showed similar action, though neither has found the 200 day
SMA just yet. They logged gains on the session. They sold before the other
indices, and their positive results on the day suggest that they are sold
out and ready to rebound, kind of a leading indicator for the rest of the
market.

NASDAQ continued lower with a gap, recovered the loss and a lot more, but
then gave most of it back. Okay, NASDAQ is now a bit closer to next support
at 5,000 (closed at 5046).

DJ30 continued lower as well, also after an intraday try higher. DJ30 is
playing catch down to the other NYSE indices after breaking support at
18,000 Wednesday. Next support is literally at the 200 day SMA and some
interim price highs, lows, and gap points at that level.

In the end stock traders and investors opted for a nothing move. Not a move
about nothing -- the something is next Tuesday -- just not moving much at
all, at least on the close. They put in the miles intraday. The jobs
report was not good enough or bad enough -- not good enough to ensure an
incumbent party victory, not bad enough to get the Fed back onto stimulus.
As for the former, who knows? As for the latter, things are muddling along
but not accelerating.

No, not accelerating, just being as it was in the 1970's. Of course, as I
have written about for years and predicted, today's pundits look at these
numbers and talk about how great things are. They have 'dumbed down' their
economic analysis to today's standards versus what the US typically produces
economically. I said this would happen and it has.

That is why today there was one analyst on CNBC who made the most ludicrous
statement I have heard of late: the economy is in a Goldilocks mode. If
this is just right, I am going to have to move to a country where there is
growth potential, one where those purportedly in the intelligentsia have not
lost their minds.

There is no way on earth in the US that 1.4% GDP growth is 'Goldilocks.'
There is no way that 94.609M working aged people out of the workforce is
Goldilocks. There is no way that 8.05M people, an all time high, working
two or more jobs just to make ends meet is Goldilocks. There is no way an
economy creating hundreds of thousands more part-time jobs while LOSING
full-time jobs is Goldilocks. There is no way that 101M workers see their
2.4% wage gains eaten up by inflation when just 9 years ago their wages were
growing by 4+% and inflation was nonexistent. Goldilocks my rear. Just
another idiot living in the bubble that is New York and Washington, DC. I
would say something really mean but decorum (and better taste than I have)
prevents it.

But, as usual, I digress.

Stocks tried to bounce but without a cathartic selloff, that final shakeout,
the buyers just didn't have it in them to face a weekend ahead of a wildly
changing national election scene with the possibility at any time of leaks
or announcements about the latest investigation into whether a whole group
of people should be locked away in solitary confinement in Leavenworth
prison for life. Seems strange that those two statements are mentioned
together in discussing a national election -- in the US.

The bids didn't have the mojo to hang on, and now we have to see if
Monday/Tuesday brings a shakeout that stocks can build some momentum for a
rebound move.

I am asked about what to do ahead of the election. From my standpoint I am
just playing the index charts and the stock charts. The indices were heavy
and broke. Some have not and are still in good position to move higher in a
relief move and perhaps even beyond that. Indeed, the indices are now
oversold and one more push lower could provide the trigger for an upside
relief move.

After that, will there be new highs? I don't think so without the Fed and
central banks stepping in as they did in February of this year. There is,
however, a trendline from 2009 for SP500 that is currently at roughly 2025,
60 points lower, that could be used as support. It was undercut in January
and February, but the indices put in a double bottom and of course rallied,
aided by that BOE and ECB buying off of the February lower lows.

In short, near term the indices are oversold and in position to rally,
perhaps after a bit deeper test, the final shakeout, and an idea that things
are still getting better. More to the point, that the Fed will still make
sure that, despite a 25BP hike in December, markets do not fall.


NEWS/ECONOMY

Jobs Report: Misses on jobs but wages rose. Just not for many.

The headlines again point to a modestly improved jobs market.

Non-farm payrolls: 161K versus 175K expected versus 176K Sept (from 167K)
Unemployment rate: 4.9% versus 4.9% expected versus 5.0% September
Wages: 0.39% versus 0.3% expected versus 0.3% Sept (from 0.2%). 2.8%
year/year.
Workweek: 34.4 hours as expected and as in September.
Participation: 62.8M versus 62.9M
U6 (includes those wanting full time but not getting it): 9.5%, lowest since
April 2008.

I know, surprising it did not surge to 250K and a 4.5% unemployment reading
ahead of the election, but it didn't have to. Just report the same kind of
growth, a bit smaller unemployment rate, and some better wages. Never mind
if anyone feels any change. It's in the report so people watch it and
accept it.

Reminds me of the 'Seinfeld' episode where George and Jerry came up with the
idea for their pilot about nothing and pitched it to NBC. When the head of
NBC asks why he would be watching it, George responds 'because it's on TV.'
There you go.



In the coffee shop.
George: "It's about nothing."
Jerry: "So we go into NBC and we tell them we have an idea for a show about
nothing."
George: "Exactly."
Jerry: "They say 'what is your show about?' I say nothing."
George: "There you go."
Jerry: "I think you may have something here."

* * *

At NBC headquarters describing the show idea to NBC execs.
George: "No. No. No! Nothing happens."
Jerry: "Well SOMETHING happens."
NBC exec Dalrymple: "Well why am I watching it?"
George: "Because it's on TV."
Dalrymple: "Not yet."

The REAL story is told in the breakdown of the where the jobs are, what kind
of jobs they are, and just who is working.

First, the big story, the wages.

What about those stronger wages? 0.4% and +2.8% year/year certainly looks
better. Problem is, it does not FEEL better for most working Americans.

The 2.8% annual rise in wages is the economic cycle high. It covers all
workers. When you break the wages down by groups, the impact is not equal
in terms of wages and in numbers impacted.

For the 101M private nonsupervisory and production workers, wages rose a
lower 2.4%, basically the same amount since 2014. Wages rose off the lows
of 2012 into 2014 and then have worked laterally in a range since. Compare
this with 4% wage growth for this group in 2007 as the recession hit.

When you factor in inflation, the wage gains dry up. September inflation
ran 1.5% and 2.2% at the core. Inflation swallows the majority of any wage
gains.

The gains are found in the 21.7M supervisory and managerial workers. Those
workers saw wages surge 4.7% year/year in October.

What does this underscore? That the US is still making more low wage, low
pay jobs than quality jobs, and with those jobs the best people can hope for
is to just hang on against inflation and forget any saving for retirement or
the kids' college.


Second, the participation rate. It moved back down to 62.8% as 425,000 LEFT
the workforce. That pushes the 'not in the workforce' number to 94.605M!
Oh, so THAT is why the unemployment rate fell. Not more people working,
just more people NOT working. And the unemployment rate falls. Now THAT
makes sense. Didn't I say last week that how the federal government
calculates economic data defies logic?


Third there is the full-time versus part-time problem.
Fulltime: -103,000! September: -5K
Part-time: +90K. September +430K.


Fourth: How many jobs are double counted, i.e. how many are working 2 or
more jobs?
Multiple job holders: Jumped to 8.05M, an ALL-TIME HIGH! What a great
economy that there are so many jobs people can hold 2 or 3 at a time! If
not, they would be evicted. Thank you Mr. President for crafting an economy
that creates a lot more no skill, minimum wage jobs than we need so people
can at least hold 2 of them to make a subsistence level of income.


Finally, just where are the jobs created? Again, it is not in the high wage
areas.
Professional and Business Services: +43K
Healthcare (aided by forced ACA spending): +41K
Government: +19K
Temporary: +26K
Leisure and Hospitality: +10K
Construction: +11K
Retail: -1.1K
Manufacturing: -9K
Mines: -2K




THE MARKET

The most consecutive downside sessions since 1980 or 36 years. The
reporters are making this sound as if it is up there with the worst drops in
history. Of course it is not. It just is down without a day off, a
continuation doji, or a weak bounce attempt. It was down harder in fewer
sessions in 2008. It is all relative. We have all seen stocks that move up
for two weeks but the gains are so slight it is up less than 3%. So yes,
SP500 is down 9 straight sessions, but it has lost just 3%. Oooh. Lock up
the children.

SP500: Why not start here? Gapped to the 200 day SMA and bounced 12
points. Then it gave them up to close lower. Showing a hammer doji at the
200 day SMA and in good position to make that oversold bounce take hold.
Just needs the trigger to move higher. An undercut of the 200 day SMA could
lead to a reversal that slingshots it upside. Again, if we see that, we are
going to take the rest of the downside gain on the SPY puts as well as
likely other downside positions.

SOX: Broke the 50 day MA's and the trendline out of the summer 2016. Not
collapsing, but lower MACD on both the recent highs and now breaking the
same support as NASDAQ before it followed SP400 lower that follows the same
pattern in RUTX when it rolled over. The path is clear.

NASDAQ: Down 9 straight sessions after a lower high in late October.
Friday NASDAQ gapped lower but reversed upside. It then sold back. Still
well above the 200 day SMA. Next support around 4978.

DJ30: Tried higher as well but faded to close at the session low. The next
support is likely the 200 day SMA (17,767; closed at 17,890). Took longer
but did break lower. If SP500 rebounds off the 200 day SMA that may keep
DJ30 off of that test.

SP400: Came close to the 200 day SMA but did not touch it. Rallied sharply
off the low, up 15 points on the high before it reversed and gave up almost
all of the move. Oversold, ready to bounce.

RUTX: Similar action as SP400, close to the 200 day SMA but not touching
it, surging upside, but giving up 12 points off the high (closed with a 6.5
point gain). Oversold as well, in position to bounce.


LEADERSHIP

Big Names: The FANG lost $100B in market cap on the week. FB bombed lower
Thursday on earnings, posted a modest gain Friday. AMZN gapped below the
trendline Friday after a big drop Wednesday. AAPL fell Tuesday to Friday.
NFLX continues holding the 10 day EMA in a nice low volume test. GOOG
continued its plunge but Friday after a big gap lower recovered to flat.

Tech: MSFT gapped lower to the twin August peaks, where it needs to hold.
WDC flopped to the 50 day MA's by Friday. STX broke on the week, recovered
some Thursday and Friday but faded the move. CSCO really broke Friday but
managed to recover well off the low. FFIV, VMW still holding up well,
testing their upside breaks.

Chips: SOX broke its trend but still holding up decently enough with some
good patterns, but many stocks are showing the same break of support. MLNX
is still looking good for a break higher. LRCX gave up some ground, still
in a pullback. AMAT gapped lower, recovered some ground but still weak. MU
tried to recover the 50 day EMA but failed. AVGO hanging on at the 50 day
EMA, still unable to hold a move higher. QRVO gapped below the 200 day SMA
on earnings. Ugly.

Oil/Energy: CWEI is on its own planet. Rocky 2 weeks, made it through
earnings, now up almost 10% Friday to a new high. CVX is in a decent test
of its surge. HAL in a nice 50 day EMA test off its higher high. APA
trying a bounce after an earnings pounding. APC looks ready for another leg
lower. SYRG hung on at support.

Financial: Tested deeper but holding at support. C showing a doji at the
50 day MA. BAC at the 20 day EMA. TCBI trying to hang on at the 20 day;
maybe. GS showing a doji as it tests the 10 day EMA.

Metals: AKS making a nice break higher. SID sold to the 50 day SMA, trying
to hold it. FCX tested the 50 day but then surged upside Friday.

Retail: Not any improvement Friday from their struggles. HD, LOW, LULU
struggle. Department stores continue to struggle. KSS, JWN having issues.
M, DDS are trying to recover. Overall still not good. With the trucking
industry idling hundreds of rigs, the Christmas season does not look that
good.

Industrial Machinery: After selling, trying to recover. CMI surged Friday
to the 50 day MA's, trying to recover from the Tuesday gap lower. CAT
started upside on volume off its Monday to Thursday drop. UTX continues
working on its pattern to recover.


MARKET STATS

NASDAQ
Stats: -12.04 points (-0.24%) to close at 5046.37
Volume: 2.052B (-2.7%)

Up Volume: 945.25M (+353.56M)
Down Volume: 1.05B (-390M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.08 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.9 to 1

New Highs: 39 (+39)
New Lows: 167 (+167)

S&P
Stats: -3.48 points (-0.17%) to close at 2085.18
NYSE Volume: 935M (+1.08%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.06 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.5 to 1

New Highs: 24 (+6)
New Lows: 78 (-28)

DJ30
Stats: -42.39 points (-0.24%) to close at 17888.28


SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 22.51; +0.43
VXN: 23.03; +0.67
VXO: 24.19; +1.52

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.37; +0.18

Six straight 1.0+ sessions after a string of weeks of below 1.0 readings.
Lots of put buying either for hedging or speculation. Kind of late to the
event. Six straight sessions is enough to help trigger a bounce.


Bulls and Bears: Rather absurd. Bulls surged the prior week and now crater
to a pullback low. Bears bounce to the level touched 5 weeks back. There
was no reason to bounce before and now it is tumbling back as it should.
Long way to go to give a new signal.

Bulls: 41.7 versus 47.1

Bears: 24.3 versus 23.1

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.




Bulls: 41.7 versus 47.1
47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0
versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9%
versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus
47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus
39.2

Bears: 24.3 versus 23.1
23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6
versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2%
versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus
23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7%
versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8%
versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%


OTHER MARKETS

Bonds (10 year): 1.778% versus 1.81%. After a volatile week following the
late October gap lower, bonds are trying the upside with a higher volume
move upside Friday. Cleared the 10 day EMA, an important first step.

Historical: 1.81% versus 1.797% versus 1.827% versus 1.83% versus 1.85%
versus 1.84% versus 1.791% versus 1.76% versus 1.76% versus 1.73% versus
1.75% versus 1.74% versus 1.74% versus 1.766% versus 1.80% versus 1.746%
versus 1.78% versus 1.723% versus 1.72% versus 1.74% versus 1.72% versus
1.69% versus 1.622% versus 1.60% versus 1.56% versus 1.569% versus 1.56%
versus 1.584% versus 1.62%


EUR/USD: 1.11406 versus 1.11059. Big upside week for the euro and it
continued Friday, moving through the 50 day SMA. Now let's get this
straight, supposedly solid economic data, Fed ready to hike rates, yet the
euro is running against the dollar. Doesn't add up.

Historical: 1.11059 versus 1.11020 versus 1.10560 versus 1.09646 versus
1.09860 versus 1.08963 versus 1.0895 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08793 versus
1.08851 versus 1.0928 versus 1.0971 versus 1.0977 versus 1.10217 versus
1.0966 versus 1.10536 versus 1.1032 versus 1.10598 versus 1.1233 versus
1.1183 versus 1.1147 versus 1.12052 versus 1.12091 versus 1.12066 versus
1.1239 versus 1.1218 versus 1.1228 versus 1.2148 versus 1.1254 versus 1.1248
versus 1.12259


USD/JPY: 103.122 versus 102.96. After an ugly flop Tuesday and Wednesday,
a modest bounce to the 50 day EMA Friday.

Historical: 102.96 versus 103.350 versus 104.042 versus 104.798 versus
104.710 versus 105.305 versus 104.412 versus 104.2110 versus 104.331 versus
103.83 versus 103.99 versus 103.99 versus 103.602 versus 103.892 versus
103.815 versus 104.201 versus 103.634 versus 103.690 versus 103.698 versus
103.95 versus 103.159 versus 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus
102.035 versus 101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55 versus
100.75 versus 101.034 versus 101.045 versus 100.386


Oil: 44.07, -0.59. And they are talking about the market selling. After
hitting a higher high mid-October, oil has sold straight down, falling 10 of
12 sessions. Friday touched at the 200 day SMA and rebounded some off that
support. Quite a fall, due for a bounce to at least test the breach of the
2016 up trendline.

Gold: 1304.50, +1.20. Gold showing resilience when, as with bonds, it
should not be. Big surge Tuesday and Wednesday, pausing Thursday and
Friday, but showing doji with tail sitting on the 50 day SMA. At some
resistance but an impressive recovery and looks ready to go higher.


MONDAY

Okay, a ton of data and earnings out of the way, but a ton more earnings and
a bit more data to come. Oh yes, and an election on Tuesday.

As discussed in the Market Overview, many wonder what to do ahead of the
election. Predictions of a 5% or worse selloff all the way to no effect.
No one knows. So, those of us here plan on staying with good stocks in good
patterns, up and down. When they show they should be sold, we sell them.
When there is gain, we take it. When new buys appear, we make them.
Otherwise the only thing to do is just sell out of everything. We have some
stock we have held a long time through many events and have a lot of gain
in. We are not going to sell just for an election.

So, we plan on doing what we always do and we plan on making money as well.
That is the only prediction I am making.

Have a great weekend.


SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE

NASDAQ: Closed at 5046.37

Resistance:
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5170 is the October intraday low.
The 50 day EMA at 5206
5221 is the 2016 up trendline
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
The 50 day SMA at 5239
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5340 is the recent all-time closing high.

Support:
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
The 200 day SMA at 4941
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low


S&P 500: Closed at 2085.18

Resistance:
2094 is the December 2014 high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2140
The 50 day SMA at 2148
The 2016 trendline at 2169
2175 is the June 2016 high
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high

Support:
The 200 day SMA at 2083
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high


Dow: Closed at 17,890.78

Resistance:
17,960 is the October intraday low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
17,992 is the early September low
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
The 50 day EMA at 18,184
The 50 day SMA at 18,221
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,288 from March 2015
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,400 IS THE October recovery attempt high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high

Support:
The 200 day SMA at 17,767
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak


ECONOMIC CALENDAR

November 4 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, October (8:30): 161K actual versus 175K expected, 191K
prior (revised from 156K)
Nonfarm Private Payr, October (8:30): 142K actual versus 170K expected, 188K
prior (revised from 167K)
Hourly Earnings, October (8:30): 0.4% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.3%
prior (revised from 0.2%)
Unemployment Rate, October (8:30): 4.9% actual versus 4.9% expected, 5.0%
prior (no revisions)
Average Workweek, October (8:30): 34.4 actual versus 34.4 expected, 34.4
prior (no revisions)
Trade Balance, September (8:30): -$36.4B actual versus -$38.5B
expected, -$40.5B prior (revised from -$40.7B)

November 7 - Monday
Consumer Credit, September (3:00): $17.5B expected, $25.9B prior

November 8 - Tuesday
JOLTS - Job Openings, September (10:00): 5.443M prior

November 9 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 11/05 (7:00): -1.2% prior
Wholesale Inventories, September (10:00): 0.2% expected, -0.2% prior
Crude Inventories, 11/05 (10:30): 14.420M prior

November 10 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 11/05 (8:30): 262K expected, 265K prior
Continuing Claims, 10/29 (8:30): 2026K prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 11/05 (10:30): 54 bcf prior
Treasury Budget, October (14:00): -$136.6B prior

November 11 - Friday
Michigan Sentiment, November Preliminary: (10:00): 87.9 expected, 87.2
prior

End part 1 of 3
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