- Jobs report is better but not, and the market takes it as not.
- Stocks off, finishing the week lower, but modestly so.
- G20 meets, agrees it accomplished nothing, wishes EU good luck.
- Europe already in recession even as US data improves. ECRI still says US will follow Europe.
- Down Friday but many stocks are in position to rally.
Something of a quiet session for a change as jobs report is mixed and not enough to bring the buyers.
OTHER MARKETS
Dollar: 1.3792 versus 1.3823 euro.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg
Bonds: 2.03% versus 2.06% 10 year US Treasury.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/tlt.jpeg
Gold: 1755.60, -9.50.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xgld.jpeg
Oil: 94.43, +0.36.
http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg
THE MARKET
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 30.16; -0.34
VXN: 29.35; +0.05
VXO: 29.25; -0.18
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.13; +0.06
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 43.2% versus 40.0% versus 35.8%. Bulls continue to climb for a second week after crossing back above bears. It could not last forever and with the surge in October just a matter of time. Did its work, however, as the market surged off the readings below 35%. 35% is the threshold measuring bullish versus bearish action. Six weeks the bulls were below bears. A powerful sentiment signal. Solid move lower from 49.5% in late July. Highs from April and December (60% readings spanning December through early May 2011). The 5 year high is 62.0. The crossover level at 29% bulls from July 2010 is long gone. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 36.8% versus 37.9% versus 45.0%. Still on the decline but not as severe as the prior week. Seven weeks over the 35% threshold considered a bullish indicator. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
NASDAQ
Stats: -11.82 points (-0.44%) to close at 2686.15
Volume: 1.912B (-8.25%)
Up Volume: 852.32M (-807.68M)
Down Volume: 1.05B (+585.49M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.74 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.84 to 1
New Highs: 35 (-6)
New Lows: 42 (-8)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
SP500/NYSE
Stats: -7.92 points (-0.63%) to close at 1253.23
NYSE Volume: 789M (-18.66%)
Up Volume: 1.33B (-2.74B)
Down Volume: 2.54B (+1.806B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.55 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 3.53 to 1
New Highs: 51 (-17)
New Lows: 34 (0)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
DJ30
Stats: -61.23 points (-0.51%) to close at 11983.24
Volume DJ30: 126M shares Friday versus 158M shares Thursday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2686.15
Resistance:
The 200 day SMA at 2690
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
2759 is the mid-May low
2762 is the February low
2796 is the February gap down point
2816 is the early April peak.
2825 is the 2007 closing peak.
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2888 is the May 2011 peak
Support:
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2643 is the September 2011 high
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low
The 50 day EMA at 2597
2593 is the November intraday high
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2569 is the November gap up point through the April 2010 peak
2555 is the mid-August 2011 peak
2546 is the early September 2011 gap down point
2540 is the early November 2010 lower gap point
2532 is the early August gap down point
2512 is last week's gap down point
2469 is the November 2010 low
2331 from October 2010 low and the August 2011 intraday low
2305 from the August 2010 peak (summertime base)
2139 is the May and June 2010 low
2123 is the August 2010 gap down point
2100 from the August 2010 lows
S&P 500: Closed at 1253.23
Resistance:
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
The 200 day SMA at 1273
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1313 from the August 2008 interim peak
1318.51 is the May low
1325-27 is the March 2008 closing low and the May 2006 peak.
1332 is the early March peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak is being challenged again
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1364 is the March 2007 low
1370 is the August 2007 low
1371 is the recent May 2011 peak
Support:
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
The 50 day EMA at 1213
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1119 is the early August closing low
1109 is the mid-September 2010 gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1075 is the October 2011 intraday low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
1090 is the early September 2010 gap up point
1040 from the August 2010 lows and May/June 2010 lows
1011 is the summer 2010 low
Dow: Closed at 11,983.24
Resistance:
12,094 is the April 2011 low
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,283 is the March 2011 peak
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,754 is the July intraday peak
12,876 is the May high
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling
Support:
The 200 day SMA at 11,975
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
11,893 from March 2008 closing low
11,867 from the August 2009 high and peak on that bounce in the selling.
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,700
The 50 day EMA at 11,557
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low
Economic Calendar
October 31 - Monday
Chicago PMI, October (9:45): 58.4 actual versus 58.9 expected, 60.4 prior
November 1 - Tuesday
ISM Index, October (10:00): 50.8 actual versus 52.1 expected, 51.6 prior
Construction Spending, September (10:00): 0.2% actual versus 0.3% expected, 1.6% prior (revised from 1.4%)
Auto Sales, November (15:00): 4.07M prior
Truck Sales, November (15:00): 5.97M prior
November 2 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 10/29 (7:00): 0.2% actual versus 4.9% prior
Challenger Job Cuts, October (7:30): +12.6% actual versus +211.5% prior
ADP Employment Change, October (8:15): 110K actual versus 100K expected, 116K prior (revised from 91K)
Crude Inventories, 10/29 (10:30): 1.826M actual versus 4.735M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, November (24:30): 0.25% actual versus 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior
November 3 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 10/29 (8:30): 397K actual versus 401K expected, 406K prior (revised from 402K)
Continuing Claims, 10/22 (8:30): 3683K actual versus 3675K expected, 3698K prior (revised from 3645K)
Productivity-Preliminary, Q3 (8:30): 3.1% actual versus 2.8% expected, -0.1% prior (revised from -0.7%)
Unit Labor Costs -Pr, Q3 (8:30): -2.4% actual versus -1.1% expected, 2.8% prior (revised from 3.3%)
Factory Orders, September (10:00): 0.3% actual versus -0.2% expected, 0.1% prior (revised from -0.2%)
ISM Services, October (10:00): 52.9 actual versus 53.8 expected, 53.0 prior
November 4 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, October (8:30): 80K actual versus 85K expected, 158K prior (revised from 103K)
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, October (8:30): 104K actual versus 117K expected, 191K prior (revised from 137K)
Unemployment Rate, October (8:30): 9.0% actual versus 9.1% expected, 9.1% prior
Hourly Earnings, October (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Average Workweek, October (8:30): 34.3 actual versus 34.3 expected, 34.3 prior
November 7 - Monday
Consumer Credit, September (15:00): $5.0B expected, -$9.5B prior
November 9 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 11/05 (7:00): +0.2% prior
Wholesale Inventories, September (10:00): 0.6% expected, 0.4% prior
Crude Inventories, 11/05 (10:30): 1.826M prior
November 10 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 11/05 (8:30): 400K expected, 397K prior
Continuing Claims, 10/29 (8:30): 3690K expected, 3683K prior
Export Prices ex-ag., October (8:30): 0.3% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, October (8:30): 0.2% prior
Trade Balance, September (8:30): -$45.8B expected, -$45.6B prior
Treasury Budget, October (14:00): -$105B expected, -$140.4B prior
November 11 - Friday
Michigan Sentiment, Preliminary November (9:55): 61.5 expected, 60.9 prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2011 | All Rights Reserved
Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com
Technorati tags: stock trading stock market investing Jon Johnson InvestmentHouse.com
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