Not Much of a Relief Bounce

SUMMARY:

- Not much of a relief bounce from the Wednesday and Thursday selling, certainly not recovering NASDAQ's and SP500's patterns.
- Europe bounces on ECB bond buying but it now appears Germany is not going to go along with any ECB bailout.
- US data continued up for the week but thus far it is not enough to hold the market higher in the face of EU issues.
- The ties between stimulus spending and MF Financial's collapse.
- Some key breakdowns but also many stocks minding their own business.
- Small caps, DJ30 trying to hold the line for SP500 and NASDAQ, but if the market is going to resume the upside it has to overcome the odds.

Lackluster day as buyers not ready to step back in after NASDAQ, SP500 break lower.

When pondering the action on the week, the market outlooks is somewhat harder to discuss. SP500 and NASDAQ fell out of their positive bullish consolidations, those pennant patterns, and broke back down into the August and October trading range. At the same time, the DJ30 was actually holding above that trading range and continuing its pattern, also holding above the 50 day EMA. Looking at the SP600, it is pretty much doing the same thing. It is holding above the 50 day EMA and still has its pattern going. You have a bifurcation in the market. The problem I have been pondering and keep coming back to is the serious decline in NASDAQ. It should be a leader at this time of the year. And then there is SP500 as the financials suffer under more weight from the EU deal or a lack of confidence in the most recent deal. No one really believes that any of the deals that have been struck will amount to relief. The proof is in the bond yields that continued higher.

Spanish bonds this morning were trading higher than Italy's bonds. Why? The ECB is buying Italy's bonds. It is not buying Spanish ones yet; it cannot afford to. It hopes if it heads off Italy that Spain will follow, but that is not the case. As noted on Thursday, the spread between the French and German bonds was up 200BP. There are other problems with Europe. We hear that Germany will not approve any of these bailouts. It is going back to the hard line, saying that it is illegal for the ECB to perform this kind of bailout. That casts a pall upon any "deal". If there is a new deal, no one will really believe it. That ties back to why I am worried about this action.

After withstanding the problems out of Europe earlier in the week, NASDAQ and the SP500 broke lower. It looked as if they would hold up, swallow the bad news, and continue to the upside with a seasonal trend. It did not happen. Now what is going to move the market higher? If we have another deal in the EU, we may get a day's worth of pop out of it, but will anyone really believe it? Particularly considering Germany. No matter how many deals have been agreed to, Germany still keeps saying that they do not believe it is legal for the ECB to participate in this kind of bailout.

We have already had earnings season in the U.S., and it did help hold the market up. But now guidance is not as strong and it is wearing off. That always happens through earnings season. There is an initial euphoria or excitement about the earnings, and then it slowly wears off. People start looking for the problems versus the positives in the earnings results. What about the U.S. economic data? Will it hold the market up? It looked like it might be doing that. A lot of people are anticipating 3.5% growth in the Q4 GDP. That is kind of what we had last year. It did not do us a lot of good for 2001, but hope springs eternal, right? We did have some more relatively good news today.

The Leading Economic Indicators came out with a better than expected gain at 0.9% when 0.6% was expected. That is good, you would think, but these Leading Economic Indicators are not that leading. As you recall, last year they said things were better or things were worse and then the economy did the opposite shortly thereafter. In any event, it is just another list of better data for the week. Initial Claims were better. Philly Fed was still holding positive, although I would not call it better. Industrial Capacity and Production came in better than anticipated. Always good to see that. We started off the week with Empire Manufacturing coming back to positive, although fractionally so. Retail Sales popped in better than expected.

So another week of positive data at least in terms of what we saw in the U.S. But it was not enough to hold the U.S. stock indices higher. That leads me back to the question I posed earlier: What will move the market higher now that NASDAQ and SP500 have broken lower? Perhaps seasonal trends will reassert themselves. Or perhaps investors will just not worry about Europe before Christmas. What are the odds of that? The crisis is there every day. We are looking at bonds yields in all of the PIIGS every single day.

The U.S. Debt Commission is supposed to come up with something by midnight on Monday. One side does not really want a deal and the other side, while willing to make some concessions, will not just give up to have a deal. We likely will not get anything major. Even if the automatic sequestration of $1.2T kicks in, that is only $120B a year. That is chicken feed. It will not do anything to stall the spending. If we were talking $6T or $10T over 10 years, maybe that would make a difference. If we were talking about $4T in a year, then we are making a difference. As it is, it is absurd. It is ludicrous to think that $120B a year will make a dent in any of the problems we have.

For the third time, I go back to the question of what will move the market higher. It could just decide to reverse after an expiration Friday. It is done that before, and there are some good patterns still out there. But there are also more patterns pointing to the downside. That is what makes this a hard summary to write this week. Things were setting up nicely, but then they just fell through the floor. We ended up taking more downside positions and closing some upside positions that looked solid before Thursday.

Next week is a holiday week for Thanksgiving. That typically leads to some upside. We have wild cards this time. We have the euro zone out there and also the Debt Commission. Maybe the day after Thanksgiving will give us a gain. It typically does, but we will just have to look at individual stocks, keep powder dry where we can, put money to work where we can, but not go overboard. If we can make some money by the end of the year, we will be more than happy to. We have some great downside plays that are just screaming to the downside and look like they will make us good money. That is not the direction we were necessarily looking to play, but as we were saying in the office, we have to be ready in the event it occurs. Sure enough, stocks such as AMZN and CERN are just screaming to the downside and making us good downside money. We are making money, but it is just not in the direction we thought for now. That is the way the market is. It takes its cues looking down the road. Right now it apparently does not like what it sees near term. Or maybe it is starting to factor in longer term. We are just trying to take with the market gives us. As you can see from some of these patterns, that is to the downside right now.

Looking at the action on the day, the indices were higher. Futures were up early, and stocks actually did rally out of the gates. Then it was a tough session the rest of day. Jagged, up and down. Somewhat of a typical expiration day. Volatile, up and down, but it really was not volatile in a while range. Volume was overall mixed. It was not a strong expiration Friday in terms of volume.

SP500, -0.04%; NASDAQ, -0.6%; Dow, +0.22%; SP600, +0.3%; SOX, -0.83%.

The indices were bracketing the flat line. It really was not much of a day either way. The problem was Wednesday and Thursday. That is what dropped SP500 below its 50 day EMA and out of that little pennant consolidation. The doji on Friday did not instill a lot of confidence that it would bounce right back up. We will see now things trade on Monday. News out of Europe or China would impact the trade. Unfortunately that is the kind of market we are in; it is held hostage by overseas news. It looked like we had seasonal trends in place until Thursday. Now we have to see if that was just an outrider and if the market will recover. We will find out more for sure next week.


OTHER MARKETS

Dollar: 1.3519 versus 1.3463 euro. The dollar closed down. A bit better mood in Europe, so of course the dollar faded against the euro. It rallied against other currencies however, and that pushed the DXYO slightly higher. It is still in its uptrend after this shaky time to end October. It is trying to move nicely up the 20 day EMA right now

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/dxy0.jpeg


Bonds: 2.01% versus 1.95% 10 year U.S. Treasury. You would expect bonds to fade given that the European view was a bit better. That is exactly what happened. However, bonds remained in their uptrend. That is a function of the weakness in Europe as well as concern about what will happen in the U.S. in 2012. There are a lot of glowing words about the U.S. economy, how we are the strength of the world and how we are in an expansion now. We very well could be. The data has been encouraging. I just do not think it is that encouraging when I do the surveys of small businesses around the country and I see how some big companies are spending or not spending. I do not see a lot of investment. I see the kind of things that are just to keep the company moving. As a matter of fact, we had more layoffs in the financial sectors announced this week. We are not talking small potatoes. We are still seeing erosion in certain sectors and maybe across the economy as well. Many are saying that the government numbers on unemployment are just wrong. They say the actual rate of unemployment is well up to 16-17%. That does not make you feel good, does it?

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Gold: 1,724.50, +4.30. Gold was flat on the day as well. It has come back, it sold off hard on Thursday, and now it is putting in a little doji. Perhaps it will try the bounce now. I thought it might try the bounce from the 10 day EMA off of Wednesday, but it did not happen with that Thursday decline. But it is not out of the picture. It has not totally damaged itself, and it has a bit better place to bounce from. Gap points, other lows. We will see if it can get a little bounce here as well.

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Oil: 97.41, -1.41. Oil closed down on the day. It closed off Thursday and Friday after a tremendous run higher. It ran up to 100, and it broke through it. Now it is having a bit of trouble getting through there. I said that would be resistance, and it is acting that way. I also said it would come back near 95, and the 200 day EMA is just above that level. We are likely to see oil come back to that level next week and then try to resume the move upside.

http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/xoil.jpeg


TECHNICAL SUMMARY

Breadth: Breadth was noncommittal. Flat on NASDAQ and 1.3:1 to the upside on the NYSE. That was thanks to the small caps holding the line.

Volume: Volume was not what you would typically expect on an expiration Friday. It fell 21% on NASDAQ to 1.7B shares. It was roughly flat, down 0.5% on the NYSE to 905M shares. That is not bad for the NYSE given that it was trading around average on Thursday in that higher-volume selling. As we have seen of late, a little higher volume on the selling.


CHARTS

SP500. SP500 snugged up below the 50 day EMA. It tapped it on the high, and then showed a doji. That is worrisome. This may just be a continuation doji. It does not really show us anything. It broke below, it tapped resistance, and now we may see a further fall. You have to look at that. A breakdown is a breakdown. We have seen a lot of false breakdowns in this market over the past 2-3 years. Maybe this will be a false break back into the August-October range, and then it will turn right back up. I would love to see that. But as noted on Thursday, this is now a Missouri market. It is a "show me" state of affairs. SP500, with its cadre of financial stocks, will have to show us that it can make the move to the upside and recapture that pennant. This is kind of an outrider. If it has a quick breakdown and a quick break back to the upside, we will forgive it its sins and move on. Then we can look for a rally into Christmas. We will see if it can do that and if it is worthy of forgiveness. But like they say in my church, you have to ask for it first.


DJ30. As noted earlier, the DJ30 managed to show a doji at its 50 day EMA after tapping that level on the Thursday low and rebounding. It looked good. It still has something of a pennant or trading range going. It has higher volume at this level, so the buyers are stepping in. It is sitting right on top of its August-October range. The Dow could provide leadership. That would be cool. We will take it from whenever we can get it.


NASDAQ. NASDAQ is not quite the same picture. It closed near the session low, continuing its third day to the downside. It was not a great session. It did not show any kind of doji, it did not show any kind of bounce back. Volume was lower, back below average. That is a little bit of compensation. It is back down to the August-October range, and it is breaking out of its little pennant as well. Maybe it wants to seek dispensation and rebound as well. We can give it forgiveness if it does that. It is the time. It is the seasonal trend for techs. If it will not do it, that is not a good indication for the rest of the market.


SP600. The small caps rose 0.31%. Not a big move but an important day. It showed a doji right above the 50 day EMA, holding above the August-October range. Small caps look good. As noted before, they are the ones that made the advance/decline line positive on the NYSE. We like what we see. There is the Dow, which is the big boys. There are not many of them, but they are there holding the line. And we have the small caps. Lots of those in the market, and they are holding the line. That is a positive. They could break here and drag NASDAQ and SP500 back up. What if they do not? We can still make money on the move because we are not playing all the stocks in the market. We are playing specific stocks in the market that are holding good patterns and continuing to move higher. They were still out there even on Friday.


SOX. The SOX was down -0.83% and is having a bit of trouble. It is threatening to break back into this trading range, but it is hanging in there for now. Bad day on Thursday, but it held the line. While it was down a bit on Friday, it is still trying to hold the line as well. We will see how it plays out next week. It could easily bounce back in this range. Look what it has done. You can see it zigzagging back and forth on top of the August-October trading range. It could definitely make the bounce next week.


LEADERSHIP

Technology. Techs continued to struggle. AAPL was down for the third session in a row. We are now playing this short on some positions and with good reason. GOOG continued down as well after making a kind of tepid second high right at the July peak. It has not broken completely. It may bounce post-expiration. If it comes up short, that could give us a nice entry to a downside play. Semiconductors were weak as well. KLAC was a great runner through October and mid-November. It had a second tough day in a row, heading toward the 50 day EMA and some support. It will likely find some there. We just wanted to preserve the rest of the gain. If it comes back down and tests, we can then initiate some new positions to the upside.

Retail. Retail is having good times and bad times. AMZN is kicking hard to the downside, breaking through the 200 day EMA and the late-October low. This does not look like a stock that will lead the retail sector to victory this holiday season. That is somewhat disturbing and perturbing. BWLD is holding up nicely with a flag at the 50 day EMA. There are different tales of extremes. SHLD had weak guidance. It was treated weak and it was hammered to the downside on Thursday. It was not able to get up off the floor on Friday.

ANN reported some earnings. It beat but its guidance was in line. It got slapped around pretty good. All of a sudden, retailers that were untouchable at one point are looking fairly touchable. Even some of the discount stores that should do well in a weak economy are not doing so well now. You might think the economy is improving since the discounters are not doing as well. But when you look at the non-discounters, they are not doing that well either. Maybe things are just really bad. But that belies what we see in retail sales and what we hear from all of the financial stations. DLTR bounced off the low again on Friday, but I do not think it will hold. I may be wrong. It has a rounded top. Maybe this volume is kicking in at support so it will bounce back up. Something tells me it wants to fall back down toward this July peak before it tries to resume further to the upside. That is my belief, although I still have to let the market tell me what it will do.

Financial. Financials checked up a bit on Friday after a really ugly week. JPM was showing a doji, but it is likely just a continuation doji that continues the stock moving lower. Same action on MS. WFC is holding up a bit better. It is holding at some support, but maybe it has a cup with handle pattern. It will have to prove it. We are still in that "show me" state, and it will have to prove it can break out.

STT has a cup with handle going. Maybe it can pull it off. It is one to watch, and we will definitely have it on our list. We just have to see if it can hold up. That does not mean there is a lot of trouble out there. As noted, a lot of small caps were holding up just fine.

Miscellaneous. TRLG pulled back all week, but it is still quite solid. This little ABCD-type pattern or flag pullback is trying to set up. WIRE has a similar pullback. A nice break here, testing back. It just was not the week to make the move higher. It is holding up quite well. JDAS did not have a great week, but it is holding up quite nicely. It is setting up to just perhaps try moving back to the upside.

There are stocks trying to move. ROST announced a split. It has tested down to its 50 day EMA and looks like it is ready to bounce. We do have stocks out there that can bounce and look as if they want to bounce. The question is will they bounce? That is the 64 trillion-dollar question. Are these stocks going to lead the market back up and help pull SP500 and NASDAQ out of the doldrums after they broke down out of their really nice constructive upside patterns? That will be the question as we move through Thanksgiving and into Christmas.


THE MARKET

SENTIMENT INDICATORS

VIX: 32; -2.51
VXN: 31.83; -2.51
VXO: 32.2; -2.26

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.89; -0.41


Bulls versus Bears:

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 47.4% versus 44.2%. Picking up speed just in time for the market to fall off sharply. About right. Still steadily climbing after crossing back above bears. It could not last forever and with the surge in October just a matter of time. Did its work, however, as the market surged off the readings below 35%. 35% is the threshold measuring bullish versus bearish action. Six weeks the bulls were below bears. A powerful sentiment signal. Solid move lower from 49.5% in late July. Highs from April and December (60% readings spanning December through early May 2011). The 5 year high is 62.0. The crossover level at 29% bulls from July 2010 is long gone. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 32.6% versus 34.7% versus 36.8%. Continuing the fall as you would expect. It did spend seven weeks over the 35% threshold considered a bullish indicator. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


NASDAQ

Stats: -15.49 points (-0.6%) to close at 2572.5
Volume: 1.728B (-21.24%)

Up Volume: 592.7M (+188.34M)
Down Volume: 1.15B (-620M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.02 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.52 to 1

New Highs: 14 (-3)
New Lows: 85 (-14)

NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg

NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg

SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg


SP500/NYSE

Stats: -0.48 points (-0.04%) to close at 1215.65
NYSE Volume: 905M (-0.55%)

Up Volume: 1.85B (+1.528B)
Down Volume: 1.9B (-2.24B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.36 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 4.27 to 1

New Highs: 73 (-1)
New Lows: 74 (-20)

SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg

SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg


DJ30

Stats: +25.43 points (+0.22%) to close at 11796.16
Volume DJ30: 181M shares Friday versus 170M shares Thursday.

DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg


MONDAY

As we ponder the question of whether these stocks will lead the indices back to the upside, we also have to ask ourselves how much money we want to put at risk. Given the breaks lower, right now I do not want to take a lot of full positions to the upside. This is a very choppy market. It looked like it was building to the upside despite a few wicked downdrafts in late October and mid-November. It was weathering the data, swallowing the bad news, and still looking good. At least until Thursday. That changed the character. It has to prove itself again, and until it does, we do not want to put a bunch of new money to work. We will take advantage of stocks that make the moves we want, whether upside or downside. We were buying downside today, and we would continue to do so because there are more good setups to the downside if this market wants to continue. In other words, if it has had enough of all the Europe action and says it is giving up and going home for the year. If that is the case, we will take advantage of it.

There are so many things out there externally impacting the market. I talked about some of them earlier. There is the European data that comes out every day. I also talked about the U.S. Debt Commission and Congress that will have to come with something. If it does not, we will get $1.2B in rather illusory cuts. We will not cut real money that we are actually spending. We will cut money that we would have spent on the wars if they were not ending, but now we will not spend it because they have ended. You get the idea. It is BS.

We have a lot to deal with in the market, and it may just not want to deal with it toward the end of the year. Seasonal patterns could take hold again and cause a general rise. It would definitely be the tortoise move I believe. There is nothing to goose the market and give it that big jump to the upside. We have to be concerned about what is happening and what could happen. At the same time, there are plenty of stocks holding their own. They have weathered this week just as the indices were doing beforehand. Remember, it is only the SP500 and the NASDAQ that are having troubles. The Dow looks great, and SP600 looks great. The mid caps are not bad. Right below the 50 day EMA. They are more like the SP500, but holding above the range from August-October as well. There are still some positives there.

It is bifurcated. We could get good moves to the upside from mid caps and small caps. We are more than willing to play those. We will just go into it as deep as we thought when it looked as if NASDAQ and SP500 had nice pennant patterns and would move higher with a seasonal trend to the end of the year. Once more, we have to ask ourselves the question: What could improve NASDAQ and SP500 right now? Do we have any earnings coming out? They will not do the trick. A deal in Europe will not really help unless it is something totally major. Better U.S. economic data? There is more coming out, but it did not do the trick for the market last week even though there was good data again.

We have some issues out there. All these problems we have with the debt in our country and with Solyndra. Today I was watching some of the political shows, and they were talking about how they would solve the problems of the country. They were comparing Jon Corzine's problem with MF Financial back to when they were having the economic troubles and the President and the Vice President said they were talking to Mr. Corzine. The Vice President emphatically said that when he needed an answer, he picked up the phone and he called Jon Corzine and asked him, "What do we do?" I found it so ironic the way things have turned out. It appears that when things were in trouble for Corzine, they used client money or other people's money to try to bail them out. It did not work. And what is the government doing? It is trying to use other people's money to bail out the government. Our money is being spent for mistakes that the government made with housing as well as mistakes a bunch of the companies made when they were sucked in or were forced to do what the government wanted them to do.

In any event, it is ironic. Write it all down; it is interesting history you will want to share with your grandkids one day. But it does not necessarily answer the question of what we do now. Or does it? As I said, there are so many external factors impacting the market right now. We see stocks that we like to play upside and downside, and we will continue to play them. We just will not put as much money to work right now until we get something more of a trend back. If the market reverses back and SP500 retakes its pennant pattern, that would be a very good sign. A false breakdown, a quick reversal, and then we would put more money to work. If they get more downside coming, we will pull the more money to work downside.

We have some beautiful plays making us money to the downside right now. Again, we were not anticipating that to be the direction that we would make money heading toward Thanksgiving. Lo and behold, we have some plays that are really good in the money now. If we get another push down early next week, we will be taking some nice gain off the table. Take what the market gives. You have the plays where you notice that they look good. Do not ignore them. Do not ignore the setups because they are setting up for a reason. When they make the moves, put some money to work.

We will let things settle next week. We will not be doing a lot. It is a holiday week. I will give the staff a lot of time off starting on Wednesday, so we will hit it hard Monday and Tuesday. Knowing that it is a holiday-shortened week, however, we will not put a ton of money to work. We are anticipating taking some good gain off the table before we sit down at the Thanksgiving table. I will see you on Monday and see where this market goes toward Thanksgiving. Have an excellent weekend!



Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2572.50

Resistance:
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2593 is the November intraday high
2599 is the June 2011 low
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
The 50 day EMA at 2616
2643 is the September 2011 high
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2676 is the January 2010 low
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
The 200 day SMA at 2686
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
2754 is the recent October 2011 high
2759 is the mid-May low
2762 is the February low
2796 is the February gap down point
2816 is the early April peak.
2825 is the 2007 closing peak.
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2888 is the May 2011 peak

Support:
2569 is the November gap up point through the April 2010 peak
2555 is the mid-August 2011 peak
2546 is the early September 2011 gap down point
2540 is the early November 2010 lower gap point
2532 is the early August gap down point
2512 is last week's gap down point
2469 is the November 2010 low
2331 from October 2010 low and the August 2011 intraday low
2305 from the August 2010 peak (summertime base)
2139 is the May and June 2010 low
2123 is the August 2010 gap down point
2100 from the August 2010 lows


S&P 500: Closed at 1215.65
Resistance:
1220 is the April 2010 peak
The 50 day EMA at 1224
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
The 200 day SMA at 1271
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1313 from the August 2008 interim peak
1318.51 is the May low
1325-27 is the March 2008 closing low and the May 2006 peak.
1332 is the early March peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak is being challenged again
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1364 is the March 2007 low
1370 is the August 2007 low
1371 is the recent May 2011 peak

Support:
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1119 is the early August closing low
1109 is the mid-September 2010 gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1075 is the October 2011 intraday low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
1090 is the early September 2010 gap up point
1040 from the August 2010 lows and May/June 2010 lows
1011 is the summer 2010 low


Dow: Closed at 11,796.16
Resistance:
11,867 from the August 2009 high and peak on that bounce in the selling.
11,893 from March 2008 closing low
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
The 200 day SMA at 11,974
12,094 is the April 2011 low
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,283 is the March 2011 peak
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,754 is the July intraday peak
12,876 is the May high
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling

Support:
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,702
The 50 day EMA at 11,698
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low


Economic Calendar

November 15 - Tuesday
PPI, October (8:30): -0.3% actual versus -0.2% expected, 0.8% prior
Core PPI, October (8:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Retail Sales, October (8:30): 0.5% actual versus 0.4% expected, 1.1% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, October (8:30): 0.6% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.5% prior (revised from 0.6%)
Retail sales ex-auto, ex-gasoline: 0.7%
Empire Manufacturing, November (8:30): 0.61 actual versus -0.8 expected, -8.48 prior
Business Inventories, September (10:00): 0.0% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.4% prior (revised from 0.5%)

November 16 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 11/12 (7:00): -10.0% actual versus 10.3% prior
CPI, October (8:30): -0.1% actual versus 0.0% expected, 0.3% prior
Core CPI, October (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Net Long-Term TIC Fl, September (9:00): $68.6B actual versus $58.0B prior (revised from $57.9B)
Industrial Production, October (9:15): 0.7% actual versus 0.4% expected, -0.1% prior (revised from 0.2%)
Capacity Utilization, October (9:15): 77.8% actual versus 77.7% expected, 77.3% prior (revised from 77.4%)
NAHB Housing Market Index, November (10:00): 20 actual versus 18 expected, 17 prior (revised from 18)
Crude Inventories, 11/12 (10:30): -1.056M actual versus -1.370M prior

November 17 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 11/12 (8:30): 388K actual versus 398K expected, 393K prior (revised from 390K)
Continuing Claims, 11/05 (8:30): 3608K actual versus 3648K expected, 3665K prior (revised from 3615K)
Housing Starts, October (8:30): 628K actual versus 604K expected, 630K prior (revised from 658K)
Building Permits, October (8:30): 653K actual versus 603K expected, 589K prior (revised from 594K)
Philadelphia Fed, November (10:00): 3.6 actual versus 7.5 expected, 8.7 prior

November 18 - Friday
Leading Indicators, October (10:00): 0.9% actual versus 0.6% expected, 0.1% prior (revised from 0.2%)

November 21 - Monday
Existing Home Sales, October (10:00): 4.85M expected, 4.91M prior

November 22 - Tuesday
GDP - Second Estimate, Q3 (8:30): 2.5% expected, 2.5% prior
GDP Deflator - Second Estimate, Q3 (8:30): 2.5% expected, 2.5% prior
FOMC Minutes, November (2:00)

November 23 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 11/19 (7:00): -10.0% prior
Initial Jobless Claims, 11/19 (8:30): 391K expected, 388K prior
Continuing Jobless Claims, 11/12 (8:30): 3620K expected, 3608K prior
Personal Income, October (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.1% prior
Personal Spending, October (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.6% prior
PCE Prices - Core, October (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Durable Orders, October (8:30): -1.0% expected, -0.6% prior (revised from -0.8%)
Durable Orders -ex Transports, October (8:30): 0.0% expected, 1.8% prior (revised from 1.7%)
Michigan Sentiment - Final, November (9:55): 64.2 expected, 64.2 prior
Crude Inventories, 11/19 (10:30): -1.056M prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2011 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at InvestmentHouse.com

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