Sunday, October 30, 2011

Spending Posts a Solid Increase


- To the flat line as market nurses its party hangover.
- Supposed reemergence of European worries blamed for stock stall.
- Spending posts a solid increase but incomes again stagnant.
- Michigan sentiment rides market bounce higher.
- Weak earnings outlooks versus strong outlooks: which is right?
- A breakout test likely a good buy thanks to seasonal trends and fund buying.

A slow, flat, and normal session on the heels of a big upside break.

It was a week that saw the indices break out of the old trading range indeed, two trading ranges and into a new range. It was the last one below the April and May highs that mark the zenith of the rally off of the March 2009 lows. I want to take a moment to backtrack and see where we are. The market was running into the beginning of 2011. That was on the heels of QE2 that broke the stock market higher beginning in late August and early September of 2010. A very powerful run up into early 2011. At that point the Fed was saying that QE2 would be removed in June, and the market started to pitch a bit. It moved laterally, trying to make a breakout in late April with earnings trying to assist it. It could not hold the move, however, and it faded back into June.

What happened? It tried to bounce again to end May. In June when there was no renewal of Quantitative Easing, the market sold off. It tried again, deciding it did not need the Fed. Perhaps it thought maybe things had turned enough where the market could break out to a new high and continue to the upside. That would show that the economy was picking up. It did not happen, and it fell back. What happened right after that? All of the issues in Europe came to the fore. We knew all along there were problems in Europe, but they came to a head in July and August. There were fears of a total meltdown, and we took those gains out of the market through mid-August.

After that, it looked like the crisis might have been averted. The dive was enough to get the heads of state in Europe to start talking about the problem. That was a giant leap forward, and the market started to bounce up and down. After there was word that there would be a deal made and this was the final deal, of course the market found its bottom, reversing off a false breakout on SP500, and rallied in October. Indeed, if this move holds through Monday, this will be the best rally in October ever. That is how powerful this move was. It was a powerful move to the downside as the Europe problem was factored into stock prices, and stocks rallied in anticipation when it was believed that a deal was in the offing. When a deal was announced on Thursday, stocks exploded higher, breaking into that new range. This is the final one before the indices can test that late April/early May high.

That will truly be the lick log moment. We may get some trading in this range, but getting up to the top and breaking out would tell a lot of stories. What do I mean? If stocks can break out, that would mean better economic times ahead. Why would they do that? Nothing has changed other than time. But time, as they say, does heal all wounds. But is it going to heal these wounds? Has enough time elapsed since the credit crisis hit? We have been in this for three years. It surely seems as if enough time has gone by. But we have problems such as ECRI saying that a recession is baked into the cake. Things improved this past week in the cycle, but that really does not matter. The indicators are as such that a recession is considered something of a done deal at this point. It is just a question of how deep or significant it will be.

Indeed, ECRI has been saying that we could have negative GDP by Q1 of 2012, if not sooner. GDP came in at 2.5% on Thursday for Q3. If it was sooner, that would mean it is happening this quarter. It may not happen because things have been looking a bit better. That is the irony of the ECRI. Oftentimes the CEOs will see business looking great and say, "What do you mean we will have a recession?" But the numbers are what the numbers are. The ECRI guys say, "That is what you are paying us for." They pay them to tell them what the cycle is. We will have to see how that actually turns out. The lick log point is up at these prior highs. What will propel the market higher? We have Europe taken out, and we have Europe put back in. Now we have to focus on U.S. domestic issues. Is there enough to drive the market higher? I will talk about this later. Who is right? Is it MMM and WHR who have dour outlooks? Or is it the other side of the equation like PNRA and CAT who say things look solid? That is the sixty-billion dollar question, no doubt.

Getting back to the session and the week itself, we saw the indices break out into a new range. A powerful week nearly ending a powerful month we still have Monday to factor in. We had the huge move on Thursday. There was the rush up higher on the Deal of the Century in Europe. This may be the deal that actually solves the problems. A lot has to be worked out. As I said last night: Short on fact and long on promises. We will see what happens. There was a big run on the Europe news and the fact that the U.S. data was better. Even though Europe's actual data has been worsening, the deal makes the difference. Then we had a hangover on Friday. After the stock market parties up 3% and more on the indices, it is hard to continue that kind of action even on a Friday. Maybe I should say especially on a Friday after a big move.

As you can see from the intraday chart for Friday, stocks were very flatline. They opened weaker, bounced, and then traded laterally the entire day in a narrowing range. At the end of the day, it was a wash. There were a few above the flatline and a few below the flat line.

SP500, 0.04%; NASDAQ, -0.05%; Dow, +0.2%; SP600, -0.6%; SOX, +0.15%.

You see the point. Flatlining, comatose, whatever you want to call it. The market had no stomach to continue the upside, and that is perfectly normal after such a huge move to the upside.

What was blamed on the day for the stock market going nowhere? If you read the headlines, it was the supposed reemergence of worries about Europe a day after the deal supposedly resolves all of the problems with Europe. Friday saw some new data. The UK confidence level fell precipitously. Spain's unemployment rate came out at 21.5% on Q3. That was high, and you just have to feel for them. Italy had some bond auctions, and it had to pay a record level of interest rate for a bond auction. That just shows you that things are not well in Europe even with the bailout. Maybe it is true what some people are saying. They say we had a big rally on this deal, but just what was the deal and how will it fix these problems? Debt problems fixed by more debt? Some people are thinking that, and that is good. You have to keep on open mind, right?

Blame whatever you want, it was really a technical issue. The market factored in a European collapse, and then over the past month, it has taken that back out. Stocks have bounced back up to where they were before that news became a serious concern. That leaves us now looking at what the U.S. will do. Do we have enough to drive us forward, or are we just back to where we were, looking for QE3 perhaps to take us higher? The market was struggling after QE2 ended. It did not have any reason to move higher. Maybe the economic data is enough to take it upside. We will have to see just how the market reacts to this range and, indeed, the peaks from July and April/May.


Dollar: 1.4161 versus 1.4189 euro. The dollar broke, and it broke big. It held the line for the entire month of August before it finally broke higher as the European worries skyrocketed. Then on Friday the dollar plummeted. Against the euro, it actually gained. Against the other currencies, however, it dove lower as the DXYO shows. Big drops. It is still hitting lows against the yen, and those other currencies weighed down the dollar even though it was up slightly against the euro.

Bonds: 2.32% versus 2.38% 10 year U.S. Treasury. Bonds rebounded modestly. They broke on Thursday below support. There was a modest rebound Friday that did not change anything about the break. This was an inside day technically, therefore it really means nothing. This first move is still in control.

Gold: 1,747.20, -0.50. Gold took the day off. Virtually flat after a very strong week. Broke to the upside, perhaps on some fears of more inflation. There is not really any fear in Europe, right? That is all gone because the deal has solved it. But it has rallied somewhat, maybe on some inflation fears. This was an unexpected move, as noted. Inflation is what explains the move since fear was falling.

Oil: 93.32, -0.64. Oil prices backed off on Friday after a strong week. Oil has bounced through the $90 resistance range. It is now bumping up against the $96 range that acts as some resistance. Very strong move. A little lateral movement and backfilling. That is totally expected after such a good break to the upside. The question is will it break out over the May to July resistance? If it does, gasoline prices will surge.



After a very strong Thursday, Friday was a sleeper.

Breadth. Breadth was 1.3:1 decliners over advancers on NASDAQ. Breadth was 1.3:1 advancers over decliners on the NYSE.

Volume. NASDAQ saw volume fall 35% to 1.8B shares. NYSE trade fell 30% to 900M shares. Definitely not a banner internal day. It was a flatline on the markets, so that is expected.


SP500. SP500 tested the 200 day EMA on the low. It broke through that on Thursday, and it rebounded back up to close flat on the session. That still keeps it in its range. It still wants to bang around in there and perhaps move up to the top and break out. But it surely will have to prove that to us and virtually everyone on the planet.

NASDAQ. NASDAQ showed the same action. A gap lower, reversed to close flat. It, too, has broken into the final range before that April and May peak. It has some interim highs at July that it has to deal with as well. It is in the range. It made a big gap upside, and it could test and then continue on. Nothing wrong with that. We will see if it can hold the move.

SP600. The small caps were down on the session a bit more, but they are holding right at the 200 day EMA after surging up to that level on Thursday. They were right at the bottom of their March and June lows that mark the upper range that leads to the July peak. That is where the small caps hit their high versus April and May.

SOX. SOX sported some very good earnings this past week and Thursday it gapped above the down trendline out of February. Very solid action. It also gapped above the June and July lows that acted as resistance points. It is a double break of double resistance, so to speak. It did not go anywhere on Friday; it just broke some big overhead resistance. Taking a day or two off is normal. Semiconductors look decent. You always love to see a trendline break, although there is still some serious resistance at 420. But that is a nice run from here as the index closed the week out at around 396. Plenty of room to run just as there is room to run in the other indices back up to the prior peak.


Leadership from the week was across the board. A lot of stocks rebounded. I will not go through all of them tonight because it was such a broad move. We have seen some of those little rounded bottom breaks to the upside that set up and broke higher this past week.

BRKS in the semiconductors equipment area is one that shows us somewhat of the typical pattern. The downtrend, the rounded bottom, a little double bottom. It formed the handle and then broke higher. It gave us a great buy and is surging. This is what we see not only in the semiconductors area, but in tech, retail, metals (not as much, but we are seeing it), and in a plethora of sectors across the market.

It is not really a question at this point of one or two sectors leading the move. That happened on the initial run with stocks such as AAPL or CERN moving higher. Now those stocks are fading back and testing. They are not necessarily breaking down, but they are testing while the other stocks that formed that little bottom and started to break higher are making the runs for us now. Stocks such as TRV in the insurance business formed that rounded bottom, the handle, and then broke to the upside. As noted, we see them across the market. We moved into quite a few of them last week, and now we will be waiting for a pullback. If we get it, we can move into these. Why do we want to do that? I will talk about that as I discuss Monday's session.



VIX: 24.53; -0.93
VXN: 25; -1.28
VXO: 24.21; -0.44

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1; +0.09

Bulls versus Bears:

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 40.0% versus 35.8%. Big jump in bulls as the cross back above bears. It could not last forever and with the surge in October just a matter of time. Did its work, however, as the market surged off the readings below 35%. 35% is the threshold measuring bullish versus bearish action. Six weeks the bulls were below bears. A powerful sentiment signal. Solid move lower from 49.5% in late July. Highs from April and December (60% readings spanning December through early May 2011). The 5 year high is 62.0. The crossover level at 29% bulls from July 2010 is long gone. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 37.9% versus 45.0%. Backing off hard as Bulls recover hard. As with bulls, an expected move given the rally. Just now crossing back below bulls after six weeks of bears over bulls and seven weeks over the 35% threshold considered a bullish indicator. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


Stats: -1.48 points (-0.05%) to close at 2737.15
Volume: 1.823B (-34.54%)

Up Volume: 999.51M (-1.48B)
Down Volume: 851.39M (+488.24M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.27 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 4.9 to 1

New Highs: 61 (-49)
New Lows: 24 (-1)





Stats: +0.5 points (+0.04%) to close at 1285.09
NYSE Volume: 902M (-30.08%)

Up Volume: 2.46B (-3.8B)
Down Volume: 2.03B (+1.666B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.26 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 7.01 to 1

New Highs: 76 (-104)
New Lows: 21 (+14)




Stats: +22.56 points (+0.18%) to close at 12231.11
Volume DJ30: 163M shares Friday versus 251M shares Thursday.



There is a lot of economic data. It is, of course, the first Friday of the new month, so we will have the employment data late in the week. Everything will be geared toward that piece of information. We do have a lot of other salient economic reports ahead of that. On Monday we have the Chicago PMI, the precursor to Tuesday's overall national ISM manufacturing number. It is expected to climb after hanging on at 51. We have seen the regions go both ways some negative and some holding positive such as Chicago with its 60 reading the prior month. It is expected to continue a bit of improvement. That would be good news for everybody.

There will be the precursors to the jobs report coming out on Wednesday: Challenger Job Cut Report and the ADP Employment Index. There is a little thing called an FOMC rate decision on Wednesday. No one expects much. Watch out for things that no one expects much from. The market stalled out before June in anticipation of the end of QE2. Nothing has been done in Congress with respect to any kind of jobs initiative. I wish the Republicans would come out with their own jobs initiative, pass it, and then let the Senate work on it. Just try to do something. The President said he will write some executive orders and do a few things with student loans etc. to try to push his agenda. To me that means that Bernanke may have the green light to try something on his own as well. QE3? If that happens, that will start a new, powerful rally to the upside. That is a big long shot at this point. We will have to see. On Thursday we have the usual Jobless Claims and also the ISM Services for the month. Friday is the Jobs Report, of course.

There are two real areas to look at. The third is the wild card of the FOMC and a QE3. If that is announced, it throws everything out the window and we have a powerful rally. It may not solve any problems, and it may kill the dollar even more. Maybe the dollar is anticipating it, and that is why the dollar is in total freefall, from the looks of it, on Friday. But there are two other issues to deal with. Number one is the competing earnings reports. We have seen some great guidance from companies such as CAT. It is looking super, rallying to the upside and announcing great guidance ahead. It is basically the shining star in the earnings picture for the rest of the market. There are others that have done very well and announced great earnings. INTC has done super. It looks great heading forward.

Then there are others that are not really helping the cause. It is not because they are not making some money now; they just do not see the business down the road. TXN was having a problem. MMM did not have a good outlook at all. It was having cost issues, and they are saying that it is an execution problem. On TXN they said they must not been doing something right because everyone else is reporting great earnings. Then there were our old friends. AAPL surprised with a miss, and no one really knew what was going on with that. With AMZN everyone said it was just a retooling. They said they just have to spend more money, and they have done this from time to time. I frankly believe that is the case, but it is another one that did not have such great guidance. On Friday WHR announced terrible results, a bad forecast, and said it will lay off 5K workers. That is a downer.

Who is right? What is going on here? We have a battle of the weak earnings outlooks versus the strong earnings outlooks. The answer has to be that no one really knows. But we do know one thing: When there is volatility in the market or in anything, that usually presages some change in the trend. We have had a series of strong quarters with ever-increasing earnings. The outlooks have been great. Now we are seeing outlooks that are not so great. In other words, we are getting volatility where there was no volatility for several quarters. That shows you that something is changing. That brings up the specter of ECRI and its forecast for things being so much worse that they are calling for a recession. One thing about ECRI that is different from all other leading indicator reports is that it has never called a false recession. It is gotten them all right. That is just a fact.

We have that worry out there and we see strong, solid companies saying that things are not as great as some people are saying. It is easy to blame execution, but these are good companies. We will see if it is execution or not. That is something to be concerned about. I will reiterate, however, that volatility typically suggests a change in the trend. Strong earnings were the norm all during the run higher, and then we had sudden volatility. Seriously negative outlooks could stall out the indices as they get back toward those prior highs. Remember, they have to have some reason to break through these. QE2 carried the market up to the April highs. Now it needs a new catalyst to carry it further. Either QE3 or some kind of notion that the economy will improve even more and thus make stock prices more valuable down the road.

That is the longer-term picture. This is what we have to watch out for when the indices bounce up to the top of this range and test the old highs (the head and shoulders on SP500). That leads us to the more near-term issues. We have to keep an eye on the long term, but right now we have had a great breakout. We have a lot of stocks in these neat bases that broke higher last week. We have a market that surged tremendously on Wednesday and Thursday. It is in need of a little pullback, and Friday it started to do that. If we get another pullback Monday and Tuesday and we get some new money coming in at the beginning of the month there will be funds playing catch up we could see stocks bounce right back up. We could use that to play the move in the range. We want to play the moves that are here at hand. We keep an eye on the macro situation, and then if the market breaks out, great. It breaks out and then our upside plays continue to run for us. If it does not, we take some profits and see what happens after that. Are we going to trade in a range again as we did from August into October? We will have to see how that plays out.

There are some interesting features driving this action. It makes it pretty cool for us at least for those who want to play it upside. You have the seasonal trends in place. Remember that the techs like the time around October. They start to rally and move higher toward the end of the year. They led the move up. They were the first to break out of their range. They were the first to test and break into the new range. Techs were showing the power that they should in the season. That part of the world is correct. We anticipate those seasonal trends to continue because they broke into the new range and they can rally up to the top of the range. Then everything will be just as it should be.

When we broke out of the trading range, a lot of people were shorting the market or thought it was going to fail. I was one of them; I thought it was going to fail, but it broke out. That forced shorts to cover. Then the test came, it held, and there was a new breakout. That forced shorts to cover more. Not only that, there are a lot of funds out there playing catch up. They have to make more money to the end of the year because they were not buying any of this move up. This is the one chance to grab hold, and they want to follow it through the end of the year and catch that seasonal trend. We have that as a backstop as well.

What does it mean? It means pullbacks are likely going to be backstopped by the big funds using them as buying opportunities to catch a continued move up toward the end of the year. They have our back, so to speak, and that is just fine with me. We can play that even if the market ultimately tops out at the July and April highs and rolls back over. We can play that move and make great money doing it. We can do it with a bit more confidence because those big funds have our backs.

With that, next week we will look for a bit more pullback and some stocks getting in good position to buy again after that big surge. Then we will anticipate the big boys coming in and pushing those stocks back up, driving our current positions higher, thank you very much. We can take some more gain. It will help us make some nice trades up to the prior high on the new positions that came back to test and those great patterns that broke higher. They will make us some money as well.

Sounds easy when you lay it out that way, but listen: Patience is the key. Let them set up, and do not chase the bus. A lot of people will do that. As soon as you start chasing the bus, however, things come back on you. I still do it all the time. Here in the trading room, we will have a play ones or twice a week where we make a buy just at the wrong time, of course. Then it turns on us. Discipline is the key. Fortunately we limit that to a single sacrificial one. I always say I am just trying to get the market to turn, so I will go ahead and do it. Then, sure enough, it will turn. But understand that is part of the discipline of trading. This is a trader's market, no doubt about that right now. Everyone here as figured that out.

In any event, be patient. Let the plays come to us. If they do, we have great entries and can make money. If you chase, you have to be just right. Have a little patience and let it set up. We have the big boys backstopping us probably for another month I hate to put a timeline on it, but this is the time of year where they should be doing that. If they will provide the backstop, that's great. We will play in that field and make some money. I will see you on Monday.

Have an excellent weekend!

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 2737.15

2759 is the mid-May low
2762 is the February low
2796 is the February gap down point
2816 is the early April peak.
2825 is the 2007 closing peak.
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2888 is the May 2011 peak

2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
The 200 day SMA at 2691
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2643 is the September 2011 high
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low
2593 is the November intraday high
The 50 day EMA at 2587
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2569 is the November gap up point through the April 2010 peak
2555 is the mid-August 2011 peak
2546 is the early September 2011 gap down point
2540 is the early November 2010 lower gap point
2532 is the early August gap down point
2512 is last week's gap down point
2469 is the November 2010 low
2331 from October 2010 low and the August 2011 intraday low
2305 from the August 2010 peak (summertime base)
2139 is the May and June 2010 low
2123 is the August 2010 gap down point
2100 from the August 2010 lows

S&P 500: Closed at 1285.09
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1313 from the August 2008 interim peak
1318.51 is the May low
1325-27 is the March 2008 closing low and the May 2006 peak.
1332 is the early March peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak is being challenged again
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1364 is the March 2007 low
1370 is the August 2007 low
1371 is the recent May 2011 peak

1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1274
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
The 50 day EMA at 1208
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1119 is the early August closing low
1109 is the mid-September 2010 gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1075 is the October 2011 intraday low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
1090 is the early September 2010 gap up point
1040 from the August 2010 lows and May/June 2010 lows
1011 is the summer 2010 low

Dow: Closed at 12,231.11
12,283 is the March 2011 peak
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,754 is the July intraday peak
12,876 is the May high
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling

12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
The 200 day SMA at 11,973
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
11,893 from March 2008 closing low
11,867 from the August 2009 high and peak on that bounce in the selling.
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,700
11,555 is the March low
The 50 day EMA at 11,501
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low

Economic Calendar

October 25 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city Index, August (9:00): -3.80% actual versus -3.5% expected, -4.21% prior (revised from -4.11%)
Consumer Confidence, October (10:00): 39.8 actual versus 46.0 expected, 46.4 prior (revised from 45.4)
FHFA Housing Price Index, August (10:00): -0.1% actual versus 0.0% prior (revised from 0.8%)

October 26 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 10/22 (7:00): 4.9% actual versus -14.9% prior
Durable Orders, September (8:30): -0.8% actual versus -1.0% expected, -0.1% prior
Durable Orders -ex Transportation, September (8:30): 1.7% actual versus 0.4% expected, -0.4% prior (revised from 0.0%)
New Home Sales, September (10:00): 313K actual versus 300K expected, 296K prior (revised from 295K)
Crude Inventories, 10/22 (10:30): 4.735M actual versus -4.729M prior

October 27 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 10/22 (8:30): 402K actual versus 402K expected, 404K prior (revised from 403K)
Continuing Claims, 10/15 (8:30): 3645K actual versus 3700K expected, 3741K prior (revised from 3719K)
GDP-Adv., Q3 (8:30): 2.5% actual versus 2.3% expected, 1.3% prior
GDP Deflator, Q3 (8:30): 2.5% actual versus 2.5% expected, 2.5% prior
Pending Home Sales, September (10:00): -4.6% actual versus -0.9% expected, -1.2% prior

October 28 - Friday
Personal Income, September (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.3% expected, -0.1% prior
Personal Spending, September (8:30): 0.6% actual versus 0.6% expected, 0.2% prior
PCE Prices - Core, September (8:30): 0.0% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Employment Cost Inde, Q3 (8:30): 0.3% actual versus 0.6% expected, 0.7% prior
Michigan Sentiment -, October (9:55): 60.9 actual versus 58.0 expected, 57.5 prior

October 31 - Monday
Chicago PMI, October (9:45): 58.9 expected, 60.4 prior

November 1 - Tuesday
ISM Index, October (10:00): 52.1 expected, 51.6 prior
Construction Spending, September (10:00): 0.3% expected, 1.4% prior
Auto Sales, November (15:00): 4.07M prior
Truck Sales, November (15:00): 5.97M prior

November 2 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 10/29 (7:00): 4.9% prior
Challenger Job Cuts, October (7:30): -211.5% prior
ADP Employment Change, October (8:15): 100K expected, 91K prior
Crude Inventories, 10/29 (10:30): 4.735M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, November (24:30): 0.25% expected, 0.25% prior

November 3 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 10/29 (8:30): 402K expected, 402K prior
Continuing Claims, 10/22 (8:30): 3675K expected, 3645K prior
Productivity-Preliminary, Q3 (8:30): 2.8% expected, -0.7% prior
Unit Labor Costs -Preliminary, Q3 (8:30): -1.1% expected, 3.3% prior
Factory Orders, September (10:00): -0.2% expected, -0.2% prior
ISM Services, October (10:00): 53.7 expected, 53.0 prior

November 4 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, October (8:30): 88K expected, 103K prior
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, October (8:30): 114K expected, 137K prior
Unemployment Rate, October (8:30): 9.1% expected, 9.1% prior
Hourly Earnings, October (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Average Workweek, October (8:30): 34.3 expected, 34.3 prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2011 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at

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