- Market closes out quarter still unable to hold gains, but still . . . in the trading range.
- Economy in a modest data bounce with Chicago PMI the latest.
- Income and spending fade with incomes showing negative returns.
- Sentiment very negative: CNBC commentator says has not seen sentiment this bad in his memory
- Obama's Jimmy Carter 'malaise' moment? Says the US has 'gotten a little soft.'
- At the bottom of the range to start the fourth quarter. Time to bounce? Into earnings?
Bad quarter, but starting Q4 at the bottom of the range.
It was a down close to a down quarter on Friday. The indices fell back toward the August lows. SP500 held at the upper range of the low. Some of the others, such as SP600, came back almost to the prior lows. Not a banner day, but the buyers gave it a shot after a lower open. They rallied the market on some better news. Income and spending were not great. They were down from the prior month and July, but the Chicago PMI came in at 60.4. That was much better than the 54 expected, and it topped the 56.5 in September. There is some improvement, but it was not enough to keep the market up on the day. Stocks rallied toward lunch. They tried to get back to positive but never made it, and then they rolled back to the downside. It was an ugly close. There was no last-minute window dressing. Apparently that was wrapped up on Wednesday. If there was window dressing, it was basically throwing out a lot of stocks.
That took the indices back down to near their August lows. They did not break them. As I have been talking about all along, stocks and indices still in trading ranges are still in trading ranges. Yes, it was a negative close to the quarter. It was a negative quarter, but most of the damage was done in this late-July/early-August selloff. The rest of the quarter they spent their time working laterally in a trading range. They have not given that up. We also have Q4 starting on Monday. It is typically a good quarter for stocks, particularly after you have had a down quarter like the one we just logged in the books. We just need to get through earnings, and we may get a boost from earnings. We have had warnings, such as AMD. We also have a notion that there will be some positive upside as well. We will have to see whether AMD, FDX, and UPS that are warning about energy costs outweigh the positives that are supposedly still in the market that we see in some of the economic data.
The indices took a good licking on the day.
NASDAQ, -2.6%; SP500, -2.5%; Dow, -2.1%; SOX, -3.4%.
As the stocks sold, those that rally when the stocks are down took off.
Dollar: 1.3390 versus 1.3587. Whether it was worries about Europe or whatever you want to call it, the dollar was surging once more. A big move took it just about to a new closing high on this rally. It looked like the dollar was on the ropes in July and August. It was not rallying even though Europe was having a lot of trouble. When it broke free, it broke big. Now it is in a strong uptrend. It has resumed its move. After breaking the downtrend from January through May, it looked like it was going to give up again. Now it is powering back to the upside; indeed, it is heading back toward the January and late-November highs.
Bonds: 1.91% versus 1.99% 10 year U.S. Treasury. Bonds found favor with investors once more. The 10 year did top 2% on the week. It was not able to hold that move, however. It has started to rally back as yields begin to fall. Looking solid with a good gap to the upside. There is a nice test of support and a bounce to the upside. That is what a trendline is made of. You have a good bounce, and you have the little pyramids forming one on top of the other above the 10 and 20 day EMA. Quite solid.
Gold: $1,622.30, +5.00. Gold is bouncing around after this large selloff. This is exactly what it needs to do. Base out, set up some form of base. It could double bottom off of this support, form a rounded bottom, or maybe an inverted head and shoulders. We will have to see what happens and how it forms up. I do not think it will bounce right back up. It may give us a bounce. If it does, that will probably be a prelude to a double bottom. We will have to see what happens. Best to let it base out a bit and catch it as it is ready to explode higher. Maybe we can make a trade up toward the 50 day EMA and the August low as part of the double bottom or some other basing action. That is fine. If you want to buy it again for a longer term, let it base out, and we will see what happens. You can always pick up a bit of the yellow stuff on a bounce. If it comes back, then pick up some more as it starts to bounce again.
Gold has peaked. It had a bit of trouble, and now it needs to base out and move back up. For now, it is holding where it needs to hold to do just that.
Oil: $79.20, -2.94. Oil had a tough session. It is really struggling. It was down at the bottom of its range again. It has broken below 80, which is roughly the bottom of the $80-90 trading range. It could undercut again and reverse, just as it did a week ago and as it did in early August. This has been a good trading range for oil. There is no new pressure on it. If it does break lower and falls down into the Summer of 2010 base, that is not a positive for the world economy, and thus the U.S. economy and U.S. market. We will be watching gold closely this coming week to see if it hangs on or if it gives it up.
TO VIEW THE ECONOMY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Some improving economic data but it is just a blip.
We have had an uptick in the economic data in the U.S. Just as a market cannot continue to fall without bouncing every once in a while, the economic news will not continue to spiral downward without ever bouncing back up. We have seen this before. Remember when everyone thought the economy was recovering back in late 2010 and early 2011? We saw an upturn in manufacturing, and everyone thought, thank goodness, we are out of that slow patch. At the time, I noted that was most likely a rebound in what was turning into a continuing downtrend. That is exactly what happened.
Right now there is a bounce in the data. That is normal. This week we saw some improvement in data across the board. Confidence was still in the toilet, but Case/Shiller was stronger. While durable orders were not good, some of the business investment was improving. There are hints here and there that things are positive. The Initial Claims data was 391K. That was the first time below 400K since April. That was a technical issue; it will probably bounce right back above that level, but that is all part of the package. A bit of improvement here and there. The economy tends to move up and down as a unit.
GDP turned out to be a bit better, revised up to 1.3% on the back of some exports and a decline in imports. Again, that is not necessarily good news in the economy, but it helps the GDP number. Pending Home Sales were up year-over-year. But that is a technical thing because August of 2010 was the end of the Home Buyers' Credit. The comparisons were very easy. Nonetheless, the Chicago PMI moved up to 60.4. The final Michigan Sentiment for September was better than expected at 59.4. That topped the prior read as well.
There are some positives that show the economy is picking up, but it will just be a blip. It is doing nothing to show there is a fix in the economy. The news was better, but it did not really help the stock market at all. Even though Spending was in line at 0.2%, it was still well off of the prior levels at 0.7% in July. That did not give the market a heartfelt hug. Then there was news that MS, according to the CDS, is as risky as Italian banks. Go figure that. I do not think that is the case. Maybe if it is that risky, then Italian banks are not that risky after all. I do not think anyone believes that, but I'm just trying to think outside the box.
One President's malaise is another President's 'gotten soft.'
There were some serious negatives weighing on the market, and the positives were not enough to overcome the downside. The markets, like the American people (according to our President) may have "gotten a little soft." He said we have gotten soft over the past two decades. Maybe we were not as diligent. Is that because we were not trying hard or because the government has gone out of bounds with trying to control our lives? I am not just talking about this administration. Look back at the George Bush administration. There was Medicare Part D and all of these new regulations foisted upon us. They talked about it being a reduction in regulations. We had some real winners passed back then such as Sarbanes-Oxley. It is all cumulative and it all weighs down the economy. Now we are seeing the sad effects. Of course the last two and a half years have been brutal with regulations, runaway spending, and attacks on business. But that is the hand we have to play.
The snippet about America getting "a little soft" sure sounds like the Jimmy Carter "malaise" moment. Whether you say the country is in a malaise or that we just got soft and got behind the Chinese and others, it is a similar comment. It is striking to me. I have talked many times about how similar the 1970's are to the present. Massive increases in regulations, the warfare of the rich versus the poor, the windfall profits tax, wanting to take from those who have and give to these who supposedly do not have through no fault of their own. We have had 40+ years of The Great Society, and all we have done is raise those in poverty by two percentage points. We spent $10T or more, and we have done nothing but disintegrate the black family and leave ourselves a huge wave of millions who are dependent on the government. That is not a success. If we have gotten a bit soft, it is not because those of us who are working, productive members of society have not been trying to overcome what the government has thrown down as road blocks. We are definitely in need of an "Its morning in America" response to this attitude of malaise or that America has gotten a little soft.
It is amazing to me how history repeats itself among supposedly highly-educated people. Many people say Obama is the smartest President we have ever had, yet he is making the same mistakes. Anyone who wants to pick up a history book without preconceptions of what is going on can see how we are repeating the same mistakes with our policies. Obviously the view toward our country is the same because the statements are the same and policies are the same. It is striking. It is as striking to me as how the market repeats its patterns over and over again. Why? Because it is driven by humans. It is our human emotions and frailties that prompt us to make the same mistakes over and over again.
Now we are trading with computers, but who programs the computers? When the going gets tough, what happens? We have humans intervening in the markets to "make sure everything works properly." When you have that mechanism where we can step in and regulate, then you will have the same emotions controlling again and again. We may think we are smarter and we may have amassed more knowledge but we have not learned to control our emotions. We have not learned to recognize how they play into our actions. Thus we are apparently destined to repeat our same mistakes over and over again. This comment about America getting a little soft is just another example of how we are doing just that.
Volume. Volume declined on NASDAQ 11%. It gained 5.6% on the NYSE. It dropped below average on NASDAQ, and it put in an above-average move on the NYSE.
Breadth. Decliners were -3.6:1 on the NYSE. -3.4:1 on NASDAQ. Pretty much a solid beating, but not one that totally routed the market.
As I said all week long, the key is that the markets have not broken out of the trading range.
SP500. SP500 was down 2.5%. It is still above last week's closing low and well above the intraday low. This also keeps it on the upper level of support over the Summer 2010 base highs. As I said, it is still in the range. Maybe it breaks down out of that this week. We will see. But it has done a good job of holding up and bouncing every time that it has come down to this level. We will see if it can do it yet again.
The worrisome feature is it put in a lower high in the middle of the range. As you know, we always watch for higher lows in the middle of the range at an important point to give us an indication that a breakout may be coming. In the same sense, we have to watch for a possible breakdown with a lower high at a key point in the middle of the range. We will keep an eye on that. But we are in a range. As of yet, the range has not broken. Thus we play it like it is in the range. We prepare for the other possibilities, but it has to show us the breakdown. Again, there are such things as false breakdowns where you have a break below and a reversal. We have to be careful on these breaks. If you pile in too quickly, you can get murdered on the reversal.
NASDAQ. NASDAQ is the same situation. Broke to the downside, putting in a lower low on this selling. It is still above the August lows. Comfortably above the August lows, and that still keep it in its trading range. It may come back down. It has a beat on the August double bottom. We will see what happens. It is still in the range, and we will see if it can hold yet again.
SP600. Small caps were down 2.7%. They are at the bottom of the range once again. Still above last week's low, which was a reversal off of the downside. It is very important. Small caps are key for the domestic economy. They do not sell much overseas. There are some exports from small companies it happens but most of their business comes from the good ol' USA. We will see if this can hold. I believe that this is an important leading indicator for the economy, and it is in trouble right now. Very important this week to see where the small cap index holds.
SOX. The semiconductors dove down 3.4%, gapping and closing near the lows. As with NASDAQ, however, they are still well above the August lows that mark the top of the Summer 2010 base. It is above that triple bottom. We will see what happens when it gets back down to this level. Maybe an ABCD, but that may be wishful thinking. It is one of those Missouri markets; I will wait for it to "show me" and go from there.
Momentum stocks. This was a week where momentum leaders got their comeuppance, so to speak. AAPL is still doing well. It closed below the 50 day EMA, and it did so sharply to end the week. It still has an ABCD pattern set up off of this last rally. That does not mean it will hold and rally, but it is a leader and is still hanging in there. Similarly, AMZN has put in an ABCD as well. It might present a good buying opportunity.
Other momentum stocks got shellacked. CMG was hit hard, and it was down again on Friday. PCLN is all the way back down to its June and August lows. There is almost no point of looking at NFLX. It is down hard for the last two weeks. It made us a lot of money, but I said that when it breaks it would break big. It really did. We probably should have played this move after the breakaway gap. We will have to look for that and see if we can take advantage of it as well. There are a lot of stocks that have broken lower, and those were just some of the momentum groups.
Metals. Metals are in trouble as well. FCX is heading to a new low on this selling. AKS also hit a new low on this selling. They are having a lot of trouble in metals. No one wants them right now.
Energy stocks. Energy is having some issues as well. We are playing VLO to the downside. It is diving lower. APC is diving to a new low. Undercutting the new low on the selling and undercutting the August low. There is trouble in energy. If the economies are slowing, why do they need more oil and gas, right? That is what we are seeing.
Stocks holding good patterns. There are leaders who are somewhat holding the line. ORLY sold, but it has come back in a nice ABCD pattern to the 50 day EMA. As noted earlier, AMZN is holding up fairly well. DMND is pulling back after a nice rally. Just a normal pullback. Not all techs are in trouble. KLAC has come back and made a nice flag pattern above the 50 day EMA as well. COL, in aerospace and defense, is looking nice and forming a pennant pattern. There are stocks in very good position to move higher.
Today I heard Bob Pisani on CNBC state that he has not seen sentiment this negative in his memory. That smacks of the 'technical indicators don't work anymore' statement back in the late 2002 that almost marked the bottom of the market to the day.
VIX. The VIX broke to the upside out of its triangle pattern: It held in this range for quite some time. Now it has made a closing high on this new bounce. Looks as if there will be a test of the bottom of the August trading range.
VIX: 42.96; +4.12
VXN: 44.98; +3.82
VXO: 44.11; +5.31
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.25; +0.06
Bulls versus Bears:
This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.
Bulls: 37.6% versus 37.6%. Holding steady and its third week above 35% (35.5% prior). Third week the bulls are below bears and still a powerful sentiment signal. Solid move lower from 49.5% in late July. Highs from April and December (60% readings spanning December through early May 2011). The 5 year high is 62.0. The crossover level at 29% bulls from July 2010 is long gone. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.
Bears: 40.9% versus 39.8%. Right back up to 40.9% hit three weeks back. A third week of bears over bulls and five weeks over the 35% threshold considered a bullish indicator and have made that important crossover of bulls. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.
Stats: -65.36 points (-2.63%) to close at 2415.4
Volume: 2.017B (-11.42%)
Up Volume: 201.96M (-697.31M)
Down Volume: 1.87B (+480M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 3.4 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.71 to 1
New Highs: 3 (-2)
New Lows: 248 (+29)
NASDAQ CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ.jpeg
NASDAQ 100 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/NASDAQ100.jpeg
SOX CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SOX.jpeg
Stats: -28.98 points (-2.5%) to close at 1131.42
NYSE Volume: 1.118B (+5.67%)
Up Volume: 283.99M (-3.076B)
Down Volume: 4.51B (+3.34B)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 3.63 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 2.16 to 1
New Highs: 54 (+19)
New Lows: 385 (+202)
SP500 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP500.jpeg
SP600 CHART: http://investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/SP600.jpeg
Stats: -240.6 points (-2.16%) to close at 10913.38
Volume DJ30: 213M shares Friday versus 191M shares Thursday.
DJ30 CHART: http://www.investmenthouse.com/ihmedia/DJ30.jpeg
There is a boatload of economic data coming out next week. We will have the ISM Manufacturing Index on Monday. Construction Spending also on Monday. Factory Orders on Tuesday. Challenger Job Cuts and ADP on Wednesday. ISM Services on Wednesday as well. Jobless Claims on Thursday, and they are expected to go back over 401K. We will see. Friday, of course, brings the September jobs report. More data than you can shake a stick at.
On top of that, it is October and we will not be able to get away from earnings. We have to go through this little ritual before we can put in the bottom in October and rally to the upside through the end of the year. That is the traditional way to look at the market. The cool thing this time is that the market has sold off into earnings. There are no earnings to sell into, necessarily; it already did that in July and early August.
After bouncing along for almost two months, now the market is at the bottom of its trading range. It is sitting on top of that Summer 2010 base. This is the point where it will bounce or it will trounce. These earnings could give the movement to the upside that the market needs the impetus to bounce in the face of an ugly Europe. We have had issues. Some of the shippers and trucking companies have been warning. Some of the tech stocks, particularly the chips, have been warning. Some retailers are not pleased with how the August back-to-school season went. As we know, truckers are not trucking as many goods to the stores ahead of Christmas. That is a concern. Retailers are not betting on a good Christmas season, and that is showing up in the trucking. Thus retailers will not be as strong, and you know what it all means. It is a snowball effect.
We are at an important point for the market. Will it hold or will it fold? We are in a new week, a new month, and a new quarter. Indeed, we have a new slate given that the indices are down at the bottom of the trading range. It is not a bad place to get a litmus test of the market moving toward the year end. As noted, it is typically an up time for the market. It is in a very good position to make a move if it will make that move. Accordingly, we have put more upside plays on the report. There are several good stocks that are still in great shape after all of this selling. That has to give you some confidence in what the market will do at the bottom of this range. They could roll over and implode. Maybe something bad comes out. Maybe Europe decides it will not bail everyone and their brother out, and then the markets do not like that and sell off. That caveat is always out there.
Technically, we have the indices down to their key support range. We have some very good stocks that are down, yes, but that are making normal pullbacks after nice runs. They can lead the market back to the upside. Maybe not a breakout. It may be just a bounce back up in the range, but they are there to do it. This is not a situation where it is total despair, where no stock out there looks like it could lead.
We will have some plays to the upside, but we are also letting our plays to the downside run. We let them run on Friday, and they ran quite nicely. If we get a bounce, we will be looking to play some more downside. This is not a moment to step in with a bunch of new downside as the market is falling back down to a support level. You do not want to buy downside into a support level. And if there is a break at that support level, you do not want to pile into the downside. Why? You will get a reversal to test it. That is what this market does unless it is cataclysmic and the mentality is "The economy is going to hell and we have to sell." We will watch for a bounce and play it if it comes. If it does not, we will let our downside run that is currently in place. Then when it bounces back up and gives us a test of this level that fails, we move in for more downside plays at that point.
I meant for this to be shorter, but I did have a lot to say. Now I will go do an Eagle Scout project, and I will remember that there are still great things in this country. I look at these Boy Scouts and my son's troop. He is a 13 year-old who will be an Eagle Scout. That is not a soft person. We are not a soft country. We have as much or more drive as we ever had. I look at these young men in my son's lacrosse teams, football teams, baseball, basketball, and the scouts. I see tough, smart young men and women out there. They are not soft. They will be great.
We have to get our country back to the point that allows them to be great. If anyone perceives us as soft, it is not because of the people of the United States. It is due to those in charge who think they have to be our mommies and daddies and tell us what to do. Just let us be free. Let us be the great people that we are, and we will be the toughest, biggest, best economy and country in the world.
Have a great weekend!
Support and Resistance
NASDAQ: Closed at 2415.40
2512 is last week's gap down point
2532 is the early August gap down point
2540 is the early November 2010 lower gap point
2546 is the early September 2011 gap down point
2555 is the mid-August 2011 peak
The 50 day EMA at 2558
2569 is the November gap up point through the April 2010 peak
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2593 is the November intraday high
2599 is the June 2011 low
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2676 is the January 2010 low
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
The 200 day SMA at 2701
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
2759 is the May low
2762 is the February low
2796 is the February gap down point
2816 is the early April peak.
2825 is the 2007 closing peak.
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2888 is the May 2011 peak
2469 is the November 2010 low
2331 from October 2010 low and the August 2011 low
2305 from the August 2010 peak (summertime base)
2139 is the May and June 2010 low
2123 is the August 2010 gap down point
2100 from the August 2010 lows
S&P 500: Closed at 1131.42
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
The 50 day EMA at 1199
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1234 is the August 2011 low
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1280
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1313 from the August 2008 interim peak
1318.51 is the May low
1325-27 is the March 2008 closing low and the May 2006 peak.
1332 is the early March peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak is being challenged again
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1364 is the March 2007 low
1370 is the August 2007 low
1371 is the recent May 2011 peak
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1119 is the early August closing low
1109 is the mid-September 2010 gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
1040 from the August 2010 lows and May/June 2010 lows
1011 is the summer 2010 low
Dow: Closed at 10.913.38
11,178 from November 2010
The 50 day EMA at 11,404
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,555 is the March low
The August low at 11,700
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,867 from the August 2009 high and peak on that bounce in the selling.
11,893 from March 2008 closing low
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
The 200 day SMA at 11,985
12,094 is the April 2011 low
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,283 is the March 2011 peak
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,876 is the May high
12,754 is the July intraday peak
13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak
9938 is the August 2010 low
September 26 - Monday
New Home Sales, August (10:00): 295K actual versus 293K expected, 302K prior (revised from 298K)
September 27 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, July (9:00): -4.11% actual versus -4.5% expected, -4.40% prior (revised from -4.52%)
Consumer Confidence, September (10:00): 45.4 actual versus 46.6 expected, 45.2 prior (revised from 44.5)
September 28 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 09/24 (7:00): +9.3% actual versus 0.6% prior
Durable Orders, August (8:30): -0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 4.1% prior
Durable Orders ex-Transports, August (8:30): -0.1% actual versus -0.2% expected, 0.7% prior (revised from 0.8%)
Crude Inventories, 09/24 (10:30): 1.915M actual versus -7.336M prior
September 29 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 09/24 (8:30): 391K actual versus 419K expected, 428K prior (revised from 423K)
Continuing Claims, 09/17 (8:30): 3729K actual versus 3715K expected, 3749K prior (revised from 3727K)
GDP - Third Estimate, Q2 (8:30): 1.3% actual versus 1.2% expected, 1.0% prior
GDP Deflator - Third, Q2 (8:30): 2.5% actual versus 2.4% expected, 2.4% prior
Pending Home Sales, August (10:00): -1.2% actual versus -1.5% expected, -1.3% prior
September 30 - Friday
Personal Income, August (8:30): -0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior (revised from 0.3%)
Personal Spending, August (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.7% prior (revised from 0.8%)
PCE Prices - Core, August (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Chicago PMI, September (9:45): 60.4 actual versus 54.0 expected, 56.5 prior
Michigan Sentiment - Final, September (9:55): 59.4 actual versus 57.5 expected, 57.8 prior
October 3 - Monday
ISM Index, September (10:00): 50.5 expected, 50.6 prior
Construction Spending, August (10:00): -0.5% expected, -1.3% prior
Auto Sales, September (15:00): 4.1M expected, 3.97M prior
Truck Sales, September (15:00): 5.5M expected, 5.43M prior
October 4 - Tuesday
Factory Orders, August (10:00): -0.1% expected, 2.4% prior
October 5 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 10/01 (7:00): +9.3% prior
Challenger Job Cuts, September (7:30): 47.0% prior
ADP Employment Chang, September (8:15): 48K expected, 91K prior
ISM Services, September (10:00): 53.0 expected, 53.3 prior
Crude Inventories, 10/01 (10:30): 1.915M prior
October 6 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 10/01 (8:30): 401K expected, 391K prior
Continuing Claims, 09/24 (8:30): 3725K expected, 3729K prior
October 7 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, September (8:30): 63K expected, 0K prior
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, September (8:30): 90K expected, 17K prior
Unemployment Rate, September (8:30): 9.1% expected, 9.1% prior
Hourly Earnings, September (8:30): 0.2% expected, -0.1% prior
Average Workweek, September (8:30): 34.2 expected, 34.2 prior
Wholesale Inventories, August (10:00): 0.6% expected, 0.8% prior
Consumer Credit, August (15:00): $7.0B expected, $12.0B prior
By: Jon Johnson, Editor
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