Friday, May 03, 2019

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +15.38; DJ +132.21; NASD +61.94

Futures up ahead of the jobs report and up after the report, indeed climbing to morning highs in the wake of the beat. Earnings continue to roll in with several misses this morning. Analysts busy as well. All in all, the upside, after a disappointing close Thursday, is reasserting itself early on.

Non-Farm payrolls, April: 253K vs 200K exp vs 189K March (from 196K)

Unemployment: 3.6% vs 3.8% March. Lowest since 1969

Wages: +0.2% vs 0.3% exp vs 0.2 prior (from 0.1). Yr/yr: +3.2%

Participation: 62.8% vs 63.0%. Labor force -490K!!

Not in labor force: 96.2M +646K. This number continues to rise, making the real unemployment rate near 21% (if you add in the unemployed as well). Almost 1/3 of the US population is not in the labor force. And that is working aged people not in the labor force, not everyone in the country that is not working (e.g. children, the very old, etc.). Paying people not to work.

Unemployed: -387K; Employed -103K. Unemployment rate is lower by 0.2 but the number of people employed fell over 100K. Not everything is as the headlines would make it appear.

Workweek: 34.4 vs 34.5 exp vs 34.5 March. STILL cannot rise.

Hispanic unemployment 4.2%, the lowest ever.

Prof & Biz: +76K
Construction +33K
Healthcare +27K
Retail -12K (-14k, -15k, -12k the past 3 mos)
Mining -3K

Earnings beats: NWL, ATVI

Misses: DISH (BL); CBS (TL, BL); EXPE (TL); GILD (TL)

Upgrades: WMT; TLRY; BMY; AXP (2); TRIP

Downgrades: LYFT, TGT, CI

AMZN: Berkshire reveals it is buying AMZN for the first time.

OPEC: Iran says OPEC collapse 'likely.'

Bonds: 2.552% vs 2.547% 10 year. Rates did jump higher after the jobs report but have backed off to near pre-report levels.

EUR/USD: 1.1147, -0.003

USD/JPY: 111.58, +0.08

Oil: 62.04, +0.23. Flattish even as Iran says OPEC likely collapses.

Gold: 1273.10, +1.10

Futures continue to rise toward the open. Investors and traders believe more jobs are good even if the Fed is now neutral-ish. Of course, the headlines are not what the internals show, but that is always the case.

The financial stations are singing the praises of the report and the economy. All clear signal? Hmmm. We will see how the early move holds.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist

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