Futures vs FV: SP -15.76; DJ -133.05; NASDAQ -43.13
Futures were off 70 Dow points on weaker Chinese retail, industrial production, and fixed asset investment -- all missing expectations. Futures then really dropped when the US data came in with retail sales misses even if the New York PMI beat handily. It would appear the Tuesday upside was the one-day bounce opined in last night's report. Perhaps the indices will test the 200 day MA today (NASD, SP500).
China: Data weaker than expected. Xi comments about the perils of isolationism, trying to shape other nations being foolish, etc. At the same time it is obvious the US existing tariffs are biting and they will get worse with the new tariffs.
Retail Sales, April: -=0.2 vs +0.2 exp vs 1.7 prior (from 1.6%.
Ex-Auto: +0.1 vs 0.6 exp vs 1.4 prior (from 1.2).
Internet sales off
Appliances, apparel off
Empire Manufacturing, May: 17.1 vs 7.7 exp vs 10.1 prior
Industrial Production, April: -0.5% vs 0.1 exp vs -0.1 March
Capacity Utilization: 77.9% vs 78.8% vs 78.5% (from 78.8)
Upgrades: CVX, GOOG, AMAT, Z, TLRY, JD
Beats: BABA, Container Stores
Misses: A (TL, BL); TLRY (BL)
XLNX: Upped its 2019 outlook. Its stock certainly is not reflecting that of late.
Bonds: Still a 3 month/10 year inversion at 2.411% vs 2.361% as the 10 year dives. Still no mention on the financial stations . . .
Stocks are on a tantrum, one brought about by weakening data, bond inversions, and triggered by the trade deal failure.
How long until the next Trump tweet on rates? Perhaps he waits given China perceives his push for lower rates as a sign of economic weakness, and with the weaker data that would fit that narrative.
What is the Fed going to do? Prices are holding lower and now the economic data is mixed again.
Bonds: 2.366% vs 2.414%. 3 mo at 2.411%
EUR/USD: 1.1181, -0.0022
USD/JPY: 109.29, -0.30
Oil: 61.12, -0.66
Gold 1301.30, +5.00
Futures are at the session low as stocks try again to find a bottom in this selloff, worsening after the Ind production and capacity numbers. As stated earlier, perhaps today SP500 and NASDAQ get to the 200 day MA and try to set some kind of bottom on this part of the selloff.
Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist
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