Market Summary (continued)
You could hear the excitement in the final few seconds of Friday trade. The British CNBC anchor gave the play by play as to whether NASDAQ and SP500 would post new highs. NASDAQ looked to be a done deal but SP500 was going down to the wire. Then, yes, a new NASDAQ AND SP500 high exclaimed the usually reserved Brit.
SP500 13.71, 0.47%
NASDAQ 27.72, 0.34%
DJ30 81.25 0.31%
NASDAQ 100 0.12%
VOLUME: NYSE -4%, NASDAQ -4%. Volume remained well below average as SP500 and NASDAQ pushed at new highs. Just not a lot of volume as NASDAQ and SP500 attempt new highs, and that is typically an indication the move will at least have a harder time making it happen.
ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE 2.1:1, NASDAQ 2.1:1. Not bad breadth, but that was thanks to the small and midcaps coming back around after a weak Thursday. Perhaps with the GDP they will try to exert some leadership in the coming week as well.
Yes, new highs for certain. By a fraction. Actually, SP500 failed to take out the all-time high just a point or so higher though it was a new closing high. NASDAQ put in a new closing high and topped the prior intraday highs from 2018, though it closed below Thursday's high hit on that day's opening gap higher.
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Another upside week, now five weeks on this rally leg as SP500 and NASDAQ bump highs. Time to take some upside gain and we also played some downside.
CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.)
Entered a downside position Wednesday right before the close with May $705.00 put options at $28.30. Of course CMG announced decent results but after such a run higher it was primed to give some back. CMG sold down to the 50 day MA's on the Thursday open and we sold the options for $44.70, banking almost 58% within about a half hour in the market.
STLD (Steel Dynamics, Inc.)
Another downside play, this one showing a negative pattern versus just being overbought as with CMG. STLD broke lower then failed to get back over the 50 day MA on the rebound to test. We entered the position with some May $35.00 put options at $2.10. STLD bounced up and down but kept trending lower below the 10 day EMA, then last week selling harder. Touched the target Thursday and we sold the options for $3.25, banking 54%.
Lots of upside as well.
FB (Facebook, Inc.)
Of course with the earnings announcement and gap higher the option volatility was pumped a bit. We had positions entered March 5 and April 9. Solid moves into earnings then the big gap. We banked our June options with 140%ish gains on each.
GOOG (Alphabet, Inc.)
Jumped on the FB earnings excitement and we banked part of the option gain on the $1198 and $1172 positions entered 3/19 and 3/11, respectively. Nice 90% and 50% gains.
LRCX (Lam Research Corporation)
Nice gap higher Thursday and we used that to bank half the 12+% stock and 145% option gain.
ODFL (Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.)
Entered 4/1 with some July $150.00 calls for $8.75 and stock at $149.15. ODFL, a trucking company, put in a steady haul from entry to last Thursday. It gapped higher and rallied Thursday, hit our target, and we sold the stock for $158.49 (6.2%) and the options for $14.00 (60%).
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| 2) STOCK SPLIT REPORT |
Here's a leader play and our current analysis.
STATUS: COUP is in the process of a breakout from a 3 month flat base formed the past 8 weeks along the 50 day MA. COUP made us money in its runs up to this base, and it did a particularly good job of holding up during the 3 month software stock consolidation of those prior 2018 gains. After a last test of the 50 day MA last week, COUP rallied and Friday showed a breakout on strong volume. It may want to come back and test a bit to start the week, often the case after a strong move through the close of a week. If so, we look to pick it up off a test that likely holds around 100. All the better if it does, but if not, if it continues higher from Friday, we want to go ahead and start some positions. A move to the initial target gains 11+% on the stock, 75%ish on the options.
Volume: 1.794M Avg Volume: 1.638M
BUY POINT: $102.12 Volume=1.5M Target=$114.04 Stop=$98.11
POSITION: COUP JUN 21 2018 100.00C - (60 delta) &/or Stock
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DNKN (Dunkin Brands--$75.40; +0.71; optionable)
EARNINGS: 05/02/2019 before the open
STATUS: DNKN is kind of toppy of late, having rallied to the August/September 2018 highs and showing a short head and shoulders topping action the past 5 weeks. Earnings are not far off and with this pattern DNKN is setting itself up for a test to the downside if earnings are not solid, or frankly even if they are. Thus, we are looking to move into some put options ahead of the earnings results to play a move toward the 200 day SMA. That move gains 55%ish on the put options.
Volume: 407.49K Avg Volume: 576.16K
BUY POINT: $74.77 Volume=650K Target=$71.71 Stop=$75.77
POSITION: DNKN JUN 21 2018 75.00 P - (-49 delta)
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--by the MarketFN STG Team
FB (Facebook Inc.)
Our Success Trading Group members scored two winning trades this week including a position on Facebook Inc. (Ticker: FB). We are watching some of our other favorite stocks for possible trades next week.
Our Success Trading Group closed
7 years with 0 losses on our Main Trade Table. In fact, we closed 100% winning trades for the calendar years 2016, 2015, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 and 2009 (we still have 1 open position from 2017 (all others were winners) and 1 trade that we opened in 2014 was closed as a losing trade). All of these trades are posted on our Main Trade Table for your review during your free membership trial period.
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MRVL - Marvell Technology Group Ltd. is currently trading at $25.06. The June $25.00 Calls (MRVL20190622C00025000) are trading at $1.79. That provides a return of about 8% if MRVL is above $25.00 on expiration Friday in June.
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| The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinions of Online Investment Services, LP., or Split Ventures, Ltd. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on the related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolios of writers for this issue may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on the related web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. No one associated herewith receives compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this newsletter or on the related websites.|
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