Market Summary (continued)
Stocks moved into Easter weekend and the Good Friday market closure with mostly modest gains though RUTX small caps continued to struggle. The big news: SOX did not again blast higher, instead taking a break from back to back strong upside sessions.
Why not rally, albeit modestly? Retail sales scored a beat (1.6%) in March after a -0.2% in February. Ex-autos they were still solid at 1.2% and 'up' to -0.2% in February from -0.4%. The control group was a solid enough 1%. All must be well.
Or not. Philly Fed PMI for April dropped to 8.5 from 13.7 when 11.0 was expected.
Business inventories in February fell to 0.3% from 0.9% -- glass half full (just sold more than was made) or half empty (just stopped making anything)? With sales rising a whopping 0.1% it certainly wasn't sales drawing down inventories as they fell from a 0.3% level. February was indeed slow.
The not-so-Leading Economic Indicators for March (how can you have 'leading' indicators when the data is already a month old?) rose 0.4% from a downwardly revised 0.1%. This group is not that accurate in forecasting, and thus the 'not-so' prefix I insert.
The Good Friday release of Housing starts was not so good: starts fell to the lowest since 2017. Starts -0.3% on top of a downwardly revised February. Permits fell 1.7%. Hard to take much from this data due to the snow in the Northeast and the flooding from the Mississippi and Missouri rivers.
Read "The Daily" Entire Weekend Summary
After four weeks upside on this rally leg the indices bumping at the old highs or in some cases moving through, and Wednesday's upside gap sold aggressively, it was time to bank some gain.Â A lot of gain.
HON (Honeywell International, Inc.)
Earnings release gap higher. We entered Wednesday, sold half our options Thursday for a 48% gain.
NBR (Nabors Industries Ltd.)
Nice surge on the Thursday open hit the target on our stock play entered to start April. A nice 21% gain.
AVGO (Broadcom, Inc.)
Our second position hit the initial target Thursday and we banked half the options for a 50% gain.
Wednesday was a big day of gain taking.
AAPL (Apple, Inc.)
230% on the last of the April options.
CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill)
The last of the May options were sold for a 117% gain.
GOOG (Alphabet, Inc.)
After more than a week of upside GOOG typically tests. Sold some more options on the 3 positions, banking 60% to 113%.
LRCX (Lam Research Corporation)
Banked 80+% on options on the position at $182.
MCHP (Microchip Technology, Inc.)
Banked 140% as it gapped to a doji.
MSFT (Microsoft Corporation)
Banked 110+% on its options -- then Thursday MST added another 1.31% upside on the stock. Glad we kept half the position.
QRVO (Qorvo, Inc.)
49% as it gapped and stalled.
SWKS (Skyworks Solutions, Inc.)
Gapped and started to stall as well, so banked 50+%.
TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited)
Wish we would have waited a day because Thursday TSM added 2.28%. Still, banked a 9% stock and 113% option gain, leaving half to work for us. So, by taking partial profits we are still enjoying the increased upside gains.
V (Visa, Inc.)
Took the last of the April options on the $142.54 position, banking 215%.
ARQL (ArQule, Inc.)
Nice jump to the target in a short week long play. Banked half the 17+% stock and 70% option gain.
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| 2) STOCK SPLIT REPORT |
Here's a leader play and our current analysis.
STATUS: FSLR is in an excellent recovery, moving up the right side of a large 12 month cup base. A solid run from mid-March to the second week of April culminated with a solid break higher. That was followed by the past six sessions in tight lateral move as the 10 day EMA caught up to the gap higher. That typically stages the next break higher. Will wait for FSLR to make a solid new upside break to signal the entry. Looking for a run to the series of tops near 75. That move gains 18+% on the stock, 145%ish on the options.
Volume: 963.296K Avg Volume: 1.368M
BUY POINT: $61.27 Volume=1.8M Target=$72.65 Stop=$57.88
POSITION: FSLR JUN 21 2019 60.00C - (53 delta) &/or Stock
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ARRY (Array Biopharma--$22.39; +0.03; optionable): Biotech
STATUS: ARRY posted a nice breakout and rally from January to the peak earlier this month. As ARRY hit higher highs in March and April, MACD put in lower highs, indicating momentum waning. Note how low volume was on the highs -- just not a lot of buyers. Volume jumped Wednesday as ARRY sold through the 50 day MA's. We want to pick up ARRY as it continues lower, either after a short test or if it continues lower from here. A move to the target gains 45%ish on the put options.
Volume: 2.617M Avg Volume: 2.555M
BUY POINT: $22.23 Volume=2.8M Target=$19.31 Stop=$23.21
POSITION: ARRY JUN 21 2019 23.00P - (-47 delta)
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--by the MarketFN STG Team
INTC (Intel Corporation)
Our Success Trading Group members scored another winning trade this week when we closed out a position in Intel Corporation (Ticker: INTC). We have several stocks on our radar and are looking forward to trading next week.
Our Success Trading Group closed
7 years with 0 losses on our Main Trade Table. In fact, we closed 100% winning trades for the calendar years 2016, 2015, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 and 2009 (we still have 1 open position from 2017 (all others were winners) and 1 trade that we opened in 2014 was closed as a losing trade). All of these trades are posted on our Main Trade Table for your review during your free membership trial period.
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AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. is currently trading at $16.05. The June $16.00 Calls (AMC20190622C00016000) are trading at $1.15. That provides a return of about 8% if AMC is above $16.00 on expiration Friday in June.
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| The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinions of Online Investment Services, LP., or Split Ventures, Ltd. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on the related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolios of writers for this issue may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on the related web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. No one associated herewith receives compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this newsletter or on the related websites.|
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