Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +3.49; DJ +62.36; NASDAQ +4.48

Today is Fed day, not yesterday but today. Must be anticipating Christmas a lot this year as I was eliminating days . . .

Futures are up modestly ahead with a gap higher early then flat trade since, backing off the highs the past hour.

Fed: Expected to hike 25BP. FFF give that the nod unless the Fed wants to surprise markets and the Fed does not want to surprise markets. HOW THE FED SPINS ITS NEXT MOVE will be the key for the market.

Economy: FedEx said in conference call that it is "very surprised by the magnitude of the headwind, which is what might be seen in a severe recession." This in discussing the slow down in the rest of the world. Again, the US has a golden opportunity, a once in a lifetime opportunity, to cement its economic position by using economic leverage to win great trade deals with China and others . . . YET the Fed is set on upending the US economy as well and undermining our strategic advantage.

Once again the Fed will drag down the US economy when we are ahead of the rest of the world and doing very well indeed, just as what happened in 2000. History repeats and repeats and repeats even if the reasons are different.

M&A: PFE and GSK want to combine

Upgrades: HSY; GE

Downgrades; AXP, UA

AAPL: Jeffries cuts iPhone sales expectations

Earnings misses GIS (TL); MU (TL)

Beats: FDX; JBL

Italy: A budget 'breakthrough' is reported with the EU. Meaning: Italy had a chance, caved.

Bonds: 2.81% vs 2.821%

EUR/USD: 1.1402 vs 1.1364

USD/JPY: 112.32 vs 112.64

Oil: 46.40, +0.17

Gold: 1257.20, -1.40

Futures are sliding slowly into the bell, holding decent but pensive gains ahead of the FOMC. Everyone knows the Fed will hike 25BP but hope and the fear of being wrong has them second guessing and hedging.

Expecting pensive trading early with a move higher toward the announcement. Afterward, some volatility and we will see what side comes out on top to the close -- THOUGH on the last meeting that move was not the next day's move.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist

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