Market Summary (continued)
The week started with the indices hitting new selloff lows. They rebounded, however, the same session, putting in what looked to be a decent reversal off a lower low that just undercut the October low. Then some good news on trade, some mild inflation numbers, and a continued view the Fed was softening.
A bounce ensued, though it was halting at best. A gap higher Tuesday that faded to a loss or virtually no gain. A pair of moves upside Wednesday and Thursday, but neither could hold much of the upside. Friday the indices simply failed, at least on NYSE. Futures were lower and bids never materialized. The indices opened lower and then sold through the session, closing at the lows.
SP500 -50.59, -1.91%
NASDAQ -159.67, -2.26%
DJ30 -496.87, -2.02%
NASDAQ 100 -2.56%
VOLUME: NYSE +8%, NASDAQ +2%. NYSE trade moved up to just over average. NASDAQ volume did move higher, but is still well below average. Selling volume for sure, but not blowout volume.
ADVANCE/DECLINE: NYSE -3.5:1, NASDAQ -3.2:1. Definitely on the strong side, definitely superior to any upside breadth of late.
SP500 and DJ30 closed at lower closing lows below the recent 3 month range. SP400 and RUTX were already there, and they continued to mine lower lows.
NASDAQ and SOX fared a bit better. NASDAQ again tested the 2016 trendline, holding it on the close. That kept it just over the November low. SOX gapped lower Friday but is still easily above the October, November and December lows. The chips showed some relative strength on the week mainly thanks to AVGO's rally along with INTC and AMD holding steady. Outside of that, chips were chippy.
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NBEV (New Age Beverages Corporation)
Healthy living can make me feel good and I don't even have to do it. I can buy NBEV and make money. NBEV set up a nice inverted head and shoulders at the bottom of a pullback, a pattern that has made us tons of money since 2009. It set up, we saw it and put it on the report. On Tuesday NBEV broke higher and we entered with some stock at $5.25. NBEV made a nice quick breakout move on into early Thursday. Gapped upside Thursday, hit the target, and we took half the gain, selling the stock for $6.44, banking a 22% gain. Faded Thursday off that move, but held the 10 day EMA on the Friday low and bounced. Looks as if NBEV is heading higher again after this quick test and we will perhaps add some more as it does.
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| 2) STOCK SPLIT REPORT |
Here's a leader play and our current analysis.
STATUS: Cup w/handle. ATHM peaked a move in June and sold into the current base, falling with progression of the trade war with the US. ATHM and other China stocks started to bottom in October, e.g. SOHU, BABA, HTHT -- anticipating better things ahead. The trade war is working for the US, and it will eventually work for China businesses whether or not the Chinese government remains or remains the same. Ultimately the empire will fall if it does not change its ways -- Spock told us that in the old Star Trek episode 'Mirror, Mirror' (okay, I ad libbed a bit, but the idea is the same). Anyway ATHM and others bottomed and rose into November. Last week ATHM cleared the 200 day SMA then tested Wednesday to Friday. This is a short handle to the cup base and when it breaks higher we want to play. As for the option choices we are looking nearer term in January (100% to target) and March (58% to target) as we are looking at any market move to be a bounce if it occurs, but the Chinese stocks could continue improving if there is a deal reached. Thus, perhaps a bit 'longer' term view (if you can call 3 months long term) on those.
Volume: 820.47K Avg Volume: 1.087M
BUY POINT: $89.37 Volume=1M Target=$99.94 Stop=$83.11
POSITION: ATHM MAR 15 2019 90 C - (53 delta) or JAN 18 2019 90.00 C - (47 dlta) &/or Stock
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ULTA (Ulta Salon--$246.85; -4.67; optionable): Cosmetics, etc. retail stores
STATUS: ULTA dropped stone-like from the 50 day EMA just over a week back, falling to the 200 day SMA. Before that it hit a new all-time high in mid-November. A high flier that is taking its lumps. Last week ULTA tried to move up from the 200 day, managing to move over it Tuesday through Thursday, but it could not hold the move. Friday ULTA started to creep lower, and if it continues downside, we certainly want to play the next move lower, one we think is near 230 and the July/August lows. That move lands a 50%ish gain on the put options.
Volume: 849.668K Avg Volume: 1.252M
BUY POINT: $246.53 Volume=1.4M Target=$231.51 Stop=$251.71
POSITION: ULTA FEB 15 2019 245.00 P - (-40 delta)
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--by the MarketFN STG Team
BAC (Bank of America Corporation)
Our Success Trading Group will be watching closely for entry points next week on some of our favorite stocks such as Bank of America Corporation (Ticker: BAC) and Owens-Illinois, Inc. (Ticker: OI).
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7 years with 0 losses on our Main Trade Table. In fact, we closed 100% winning trades for the calendar years 2016, 2015, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 and 2009 (we still have 1 open position from 2017 (all others were winners) and 1 trade that we opened in 2014 was closed as a losing trade). All of these trades are posted on our Main Trade Table for your review during your free membership trial period.
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BLL - Ball Corporation is currently trading at $48.01. The February $47.50 Calls (BLL20190216C00047500) are trading at $2.60. That provides a return of about 5% if BLL is above $47.50 on expiration Friday in February.
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| The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinions of Online Investment Services, LP., or Split Ventures, Ltd. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on the related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolios of writers for this issue may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on the related web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. No one associated herewith receives compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this newsletter or on the related websites.|
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