Friday, October 19, 2018

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP +11.47; DJ +118.55; NADASQ +48.55

Futures are up as stocks rebound from the Thursday thump. Earnings, China helping drive the rebound, along with SP500, DJ30, NASDAQ 100 holding the 200 day MA Thursday.

Earnings beats: PG, HON, VFC, AXP, PYPL, ISRG

Misses: SKX (TL)

Upgrades: DIS, AAPL, ROKU

Downgrades: F, HOG, BIIB

China: GDP misses as you would expect but its stock markets surge as Chinese officials, PBOC promise to support the 'markets.' Market? Ha ha ha. What a misnomer. If things get too bad just stop trade for a month. Or, to maintain 'credibility,' just support any way possible until you can't, then close them for a month.

Xi, Trump 'tentatively' agree to meet at G-20. It would appear with its economy imploding along with its markets, Xi softened his anger re Trump's actions. One can only hope it gets so miserable in China over the next few months that Xi has to buckle and start offering stuff similar to Gorbachev making offers to Reagan.

EU: Spain bond yields surging, Italian currency and other markets highly volatile. The EU is no cakewalk right now.

Canada: Inflation, retail sales both fall, loonie falls. Lower inflation is not a bad thing but sliding sales is, UNLESS the lower sales are BECAUSE of lower inflation and it is just a price decline. That helps consumers who will be a big assist in any rebound. Retails sales measure prices, not units sold. Thus, you have to know WHY they rise or fall. Looks like there is a price drop for the most part.

Bonds: 3.192% vs 2.177%

EUR/USD: 1.1469 vs 1.1452

USD/JPY: 112.44 vs 112.18

Oil: 69.28, +0.63

Gold 1232.30, +2.20. Gold holds its bid.

Expiration Friday and stocks are starting on a high note, rebounding from the high negativity Thursday. Not sure they will hold, but the China news is the next best thing for the markets to help them along after Powell standing down.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist

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