Monday, October 15, 2018

Market Alert - Pre-Market

Futures vs FV: SP -6.63; DJ -53.99; NADSAQ -30.94

Stock futures are well off the lows from early morning but have stalled at the current levels the past 1.5 hours. Thus far the relief bounce from Friday is being tested, finding some buyers on the lower open.

AMZN is up a few points but most stocks and 'names' are off to start, e.g. AAPL, NFLX, NVDA -- not huge down, but down.

Is this signaling an end to a one-day relief move? Possibly, but a softer open after a rip higher is not a bad thing, and again, some bids returned after futures started much lower.

China: Stocks hit a 4 year low. Home prices drop for the first time in a long time and there is actually violence in the streets as a result. But, all is well in China, it will stomp the US, nothing to see here, initiate some more hacking exercises, implant more spy chips in exported products.

Sentiment: Bloomberg says the 'next financial crisis is starting us in the face.' Fed-caused? Possibly.

Other market mavens saying the market has topped. Okay, well, at least it bounces some in the interim . . .

Retail Sales, Sept: 0.1 vs 0.6 ex vs 0.1 Aug

Ex-Auto: -0.1 vs 0.4 exp vs 0.2 prior (from 0.3). Biggest drop since 5/17.

Restaurant/Bars: Biggest drop in 2 years (-1.8%). Hurricane is blamed, likely correct.

Empire Manufacturing PMI: 21.1 vs 18.0 ex vs 19.0. Some good news.

M&A: LLL and Harris looking to link up.

BR: SHLD files.

Upgrades: ATVI, RL

Downgrades: DLTR, COH

Bonds: 3.152% vs 3.167%. Bonds bounce, yields drop

EUR/USD: 1.1601 vs 1.1512

USD/JPY: 111.80 vs 112.22

Oil: 71.80, +0.46

Gold: 1239.90, +12.90. Gold continues its new found strength.

Futures still stuck in the range, but well off the lows, some bids have returned. Will see if they can continue to build when the open comes, then if the afternoon presents a new jump higher or failure.

Jon Johnson, Chief Market Strategist

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