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10/29/2016 Investment House Daily
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MARKET ALERTS:
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Entry alerts: FCX
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: None issued
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Week shows the indices diverge more, Friday NASDAQ shows some risk.
- Q3 GDP beats but 2.9% is, sorry, full of beans. Soy beans.
- The indices bias is lower but there is still upside leadership
- Market almost frozen by election. Almost.
- What happens after the election? Predictions are full of beans.
Talk about divergences. Thursday I wrote about the index divergence growing
with SP400 joining RUTX below the September lows while SOX held its up
trendline. Friday it was a different kind. From a Q3 GDP beat pre-market
announced less than 2 weeks from a national election to an afternoon FBI
revelation that new evidence was discovered regarding the Clinton email
case.
Stocks had overcome some early weakness to post decent gains. When the news
hit they tumbled into negative territory in reaction, then spent the
afternoon recovering some lost ground. The market was confused regarding
the impact of this news and traded accordingly. In short, basically no
change from Thursday.
SP500 -6.63, -0.31%
NASDAQ -25.87, -0.50%
DJ30 -8.49, -0.05%
SP400 -0.09%
RUTX -0.20%
SOX -0.59%
VOLUME: NYSE flat; NASDAQ flat. Talk about pulling back on the news in a
wait and see posture. Indeed after the news hit and the volume jump as the
market sold, volume dried up. Even so, it was still above average volume on
both NASDAQ and NYSE.
A/D: NYSE -1.5:1, NASDAQ -1.4:1
The indices did not show any real change on the session, but that was not
the case on the week.
NASDAQ tested deeper, closing below the 50 day MA's Thursday and then below
the 2016 up trendline on Friday.
SP400 and RUTX made key breaks below the range lows, specifically the
September low, on the week, trading flat with doji Friday.
SP500 faded on the week, but had held the 2015 high, the prior all-time
high. Friday SP500 let that go, selling down to the September low on the
session low then managed to recover some of the loss.
DJ30 did what it did each session last week: tested the 50 day EMA on the
high and then faded from that resistance. The Dow has not, however, broken
lower and is indeed tightening its range. After gapping higher Monday off
of the 50 day SMA,
SOX spent the rest of the week moving laterally in an up and down range. It
is still holding its trendline, in reality the only index holding the near
term trend after Friday.
On the week the action tilts toward a more negative bias with RUTX and SP400
breaking below the September low. NASDAQ is at the lick log, breaking the
50 day MA's and the January trendline. The others are holding on in the
ranges or trend as the case may be.
Negative, but the big boys (or girls if you want) have not broken and indeed
DJ30 has tightened its range, refusing to sell back with the other indices.
In short, the bias may be tipped more negative, but it has not fallen to
negative for the entire market.
With the Fed out there and its friends in central banks from other countries
ready to buy whenever there is a problem, perhaps that is why the market has
not dropped. Heck, maybe they were in the action after the FBI
announcement. Won't know that until Yellen's phone logs are released, IF
they don't scrub them now after the February log showed the calls to the BOE
and the ECB with sharp market rebounds within a half hour after each of
those calls.
Thus we did not do a lot on the session. Picked up FCX on a good break
higher but with this news breaking we did not move into other new positions,
preferring to wait until next week to see how this comes out in the
political and market watch. It could be a wild weekend or it could be just
another weekend and new week in a market working through earnings while the
Fed stands in the background.
NEWS/ECONOMY
2.9% Q3 GDP! Kind of. Seems Atlanta was closer, but not that close.
Q3 GDP, 1st read: 2.9% versus 2.5% expected versus 1.4% Q2
Real GDP year/year: 1.5 lousy percent.
Consumption: 2.1% versus 2.6% expected versus 4.3% Q2
Real final sales: 1.4% versus 2.4% Q2
Shocking. Stunning. How is it possible that GDP did not top 3% with the
election just 11 days hence?
Seems impressive enough. The range of expectations was mostly in the low to
mid 2% range. But, I have been in a 3% economy. I know what a 3% economy
is. This is no 3% economy.
Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was
a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy. Lloyd Bentsen,
democratic VP candidate, 1988.
Of course, a 3% economy is hardly a recovery economy. If it were sustained
after the 5%, 7%, 9% quarterly growth in a REAL recovery, then it would not
be bad. A one-off quarter in a series of 1% quarters is no recovery. Hell,
it wasn't even 3% that they reported.
There is, as always, the real story. Here it is. It is not nice. It is
not sustainable.
The breakdown: What the components added to the GDP bottom line.
Government spending +0.5%
Personal Consumption: +1.47% (housing, utilities, healthcare led the way)
Inventories: +0.61%
Exports: +1.17%
Fixed Investment: -0.1%. Four straight quarters of declining capital
investment (-2.7% for the quarter)
The surge in exports was led by a surge in soybean sales. The South
American crop (Venezuela, Brazil), typically is the largest in the world.
It is horrible this year. Thus the US sold a huge amount of bean. So much
so that bean alone made up 0.9% of the 2.9%, or, without bean, GDP was 2.0%.
Then, if you take out higher rent prices that really don't deliver bottom
line quality of life improvements, utilities price increases that drain
disposable income (burning money similar to gasoline), and surging
healthcare services costs thanks to the Affordable Care Act, and GDP came
home at 0.9%.
Let's reiterate. Take out a one-time surge in exports thanks to South
America's bean woes, take out forced spending on healthcare, take out rent
and utilities inflation, and you lop off most of the gain over Q2.
That is why the alterations in CPI, GDP, Jobs Report, etc. are rendering the
data meaningless. 2.9% GDP today is 1% GDP 30 years ago. Today it is a
mass of esoteric calculations that bear no semblance to reality.
Bottom line: GDP was at best 2.0% getting rid of the one-off bean sales.
If you look at items that actually generate 'product,' you are at 1% or
less. That is not a healthy economy.
THE MARKET
A weak that saw the stock indices diverge with the small and midcap indices
breaking below the trading range while SOX continued in fine form. NASDAQ
broke its trend but did not smash it; there is still life there. SP500 is
at the bottom of the range while DJ30 is looking surprisingly resilient even
if it cannot get through the 50 day EMA.
CHARTS
NASDAQ: After gapping higher Monday to just below the September/October
highs, NASDAQ sold back. Tuesday on into Friday with volume kicking back
above average Thursday and Friday. First above average volume in fourteen
sessions and it was on the downside. And what was the action the last time
volume was above average? The sharp break lower from the October high that
matched the September high. In that selling NASDAQ broke the 50 day MA's
and on Friday the 2016 trendline that started in January.
No lower low yet, but NASDAQ is playing off a lower high hit Monday.
Declining MACD, higher selling volume, lower high. Negative bias but has
not broken down. Yet.
SOX: Gapped higher Monday as well but then could not advance the ball.
Worked laterally into Friday, selling into the gap from Monday, closing the
week at the 20 day EMA. Still trending upside but needs to hold here to try
and beat that September high or else it finds itself in NASDAQ's boat: lower
high, lower MACD on the September high, facing a quick test of the 50 day
MA's after just bouncing off of them on the Monday move. So far holding the
trend and quite comfortably, but showing the same history as NASDAQ before
it stumbled.
RUTX: Dubious honor of being the first NYSE index to break the September
low that marked the bottom of the range. Sold Tuesday through Friday though
Friday showing a doji, suggesting a big oversold -- unless the other NYSE
indices join in next week. On the move RUTX broke below the July to early
August consolidation, thus breaking two levels of support on the week. Did
hold near the June peak, some consolation.
SP400: Thursday the midcaps joined RUTX below the September low. Friday
they were flat with a hammer doji. SP400 is now back near the lows of the
early 2015 range. Looking bigger picture, SP400 broke to a new high in
early September on lower MACD and weak volume. Then it broke the trend with
a sharp drop. At some potential support now, but if the large cap NYSE
indices that are struggling, e.g. SP500, breaks, it could get ugly.
SP500: Speaking of the large caps, SP500 struggled on the week as well. It
too gapped upside Monday, moving just over the 50 day EMA but just below the
January 2016 up trendline. From there it was downhill, selling Tuesday,
gapping lower Wednesday, gapping higher then reversing ugly on Thursday,
followed by a gap lower Friday. Friday SP500 sold to the early September
lows but managed to rebound 7 points off the intraday low. That broke SP500
below its 2015 prior all-time high. It had avoided that on several tests,
but now is where it was 10 sessions back. It jumped off that level and
rallied to Monday. We will see what kind of pop is left at this level.
DJ30: A bit volatile, but compared to prior weeks a tiptoe through the
tulips. DJ30 has had issues at the 50 day EMA, i.e. it really struggles to
get through it. Last week it touched the 50 day EMA every session, starting
with the Monday upside gap. It failed to hold a move through it but also
failed to break down. 8 of the past 11 sessions DJ30 has touched the 50 day
EMA and faded back. Again, it has not broken down. That suggests some
resilience that could possible lead to a bounce. MACD has been rising the
past three weeks . . . we will see.
LEADERSHIP
Financial: With the Fed rate hike chances 74+%, financials are working.
Pullbacks Friday, but a solid week. C tested the 20 day EMA and rebounded.
BAC testing 10 day EMA. TCBI in an excellent 10 day EMA test. Ditto MS.
Good action.
Chips: Showing some heaviness. After showing great strength Monday with a
gap and run, AVGO turned down and Friday broke below the 50 day EMA. SWKS
dropped from the 20 day EMA to the 50 day EMA in one Friday move. SLAB broke
higher Tuesday, is back at the 10 day EMA. MRVL broke higher Wednesday but
faded the move right back to the start. MU very similar: up then faded the
move. Not a lot of breaks lower but definitely some heaviness in some big
names. On the other hand, stocks such as PXLW are sporting some nice
patterns.
Metals: A good week. FCX continued a break higher. SID up most of the
week, breaking through the upper trendline. AKS, CENX, gapped lower
Thursday but held support. STLD not bad.
Big Names: Getting ragged and definitely impacting NASDAQ. AMZN gapped
below the 50 day MA's on its bottom line miss. AAPL gapped lower Wednesday
after its earnings and didn't recover, new Mac Book or no. FB was on a
surge through Monday then turned the entire move over. Tried to rally Friday
but gave most of it up. NFLX spent the week moving laterally after the
earnings gap and run. GOOG was holding up post earnings, gapping higher,
but it fumbled the move.
Tech: MSFT continued its earnings gap then put in an excellent test of the
gap and 10 day EMA. WDC gapped upside on earnings but could not hold a move
past the September high. STX survived earnings but could not benefit from
them. Looks heavy. RHT still in a decent pattern after BLKB imploded. PANW
still looks good.
Retail: Restaurants showed more interesting. BWLD bounced on earnings and
is in pretty good position. CAKE gapped on earnings then faded, but Friday
rallied nicely. PNRA gapped sharply higher then sold off after earnings
only to bounce nicely Friday. There are possibilities here though other
retail is problematic, e.g. department stores though KSS is not bad. TJX
may be ready to bounce off the lows as MACD rises. COST struggling.
Energy: Most oil stocks struggled on the week as oil struggled. APA
testing the 50 day EMA; not bad. Ditto APC. SYRG struggled late week.
SWN, SPN, COG, GPOR all are bombing. PTEN is not bad, putting in a test.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: -25.87 points (-0.5%) to close at 5190.1
Volume: 1.891B (+0.3%)
Up Volume: 708.27M (+158.94M)
Down Volume: 1.09B (-250M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.4 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.99 to 1
New Highs: 54 (-11)
New Lows: 145 (+18)
S&P
Stats: -6.63 points (-0.31%) to close at 2126.41
NYSE Volume: 1B (0%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.49 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.63 to 1
New Highs: 51 (-23)
New Lows: 79 (+6)
DJ30
Stats: -8.49 points (-0.05%) to close at 18161.19
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 16.19; +0.83
VXN: 18.23; +0.9
VXO: 17.16; +0.88
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.11; +0.27. After commenting how the put/call
ratio had not risen given the selling, it jumps over 1.0.
20 1.0+ Readings in 6 weeks, 16 of the last 35 sessions over 1.0. After a 2
week string of readings less than 1.0, finally a move over. The
significance is the streak below 1.0 even as the market turned more volatile
day to day. Breaking back over shows a change in mentality toward worry,
though not that much given just 1 session.
Bulls and Bears: As volatile as the day to day back and forth in the
indices. Bulls jumped back up and bears fell back to the level two weeks
prior. Still, well off the 59ish that bulls hit on the last run higher.
Bulls: 47.1 versus 42.9.
Bears: 23.1 versus 23.8
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 47.1 versus 42.9 versus 46.1
42.9 versus 46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5
versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9%
versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus
45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 23.1 versus 23.8 versus 23.1
23.8 versus 23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8
versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6%
versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus
23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6%
versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9%
versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 1.85% versus 1.84%. After bombing lower Thursday in a
plunge from the 10 day/200 day SMA, bonds more or less held position.
Historical: 1.84% versus 1.791% versus 1.76% versus 1.76% versus 1.73%
versus 1.75% versus 1.74% versus 1.74% versus 1.766% versus 1.80% versus
1.746% versus 1.78% versus 1.723% versus 1.72% versus 1.74% versus 1.72%
versus 1.69% versus 1.622% versus 1.60% versus 1.56% versus 1.569% versus
1.56% versus 1.584% versus 1.62%
EUR/USD: 1.09860 versus 1.08963. Euro surged upside off the 3 week plunge
to a lower low.
Historical: 1.08963 versus 1.0895 versus 1.08793 versus 1.08793 versus
1.08851 versus 1.0928 versus 1.0971 versus 1.0977 versus 1.10217 versus
1.0966 versus 1.10536 versus 1.1032 versus 1.10598 versus 1.1233 versus
1.1183 versus 1.1147 versus 1.12052 versus 1.12091 versus 1.12066 versus
1.1239 versus 1.1218 versus 1.1228 versus 1.2148 versus 1.1254 versus 1.1248
versus 1.12259
USD/JPY: 104.710 versus 105.305. Dollar continued higher, reaching at the
200 day SMA, but then it slide back to the 10 day EMA, giving up the move.
Still a solid move higher.
Historical: 105.305 versus 104.412 versus 104.2110 versus 104.331 versus
103.83 versus 103.99 versus 103.99 versus 103.602 versus 103.892 versus
103.815 versus 104.201 versus 103.634 versus 103.690 versus 103.698 versus
103.95 versus 103.159 versus 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus
102.035 versus 101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55 versus
100.75 versus 101.034 versus 101.045 versus 100.386
Oil: 48.70, -1.02. Dropping farther as oil continues its 1.5 week pullback
toward the 50 day MA's.
Gold: 1276.80, +7.30. Still trying to improve its lot and indeed moving
over the 200 day SMA. Three week recovery up the 200 day SMA, finally
showing more strength.
MONDAY
Last full week before the election. Thank goodness. It is also Jobs Report
week. Let's see, GDP 2.9% but full of beans, how about a jobs report
stuffed with some minimum wage jobs and more people looking for full-time
jobs but being disappointed? Hey, it is just the headlines that matter.
The market eroded its bias the past week with two indices breaking the range
and NASDAQ cracking its uptrend. Overall the market is still holding,
however, and there is still leadership. The election is having its impact,
keeping things relatively stagnant as the polls tighten and no one really
knows the outcome or for that matter what the outcome means to the markets.
There are assumptions floating around, promoted by the likes of Mark Cuban,
that crashes are possible, flood, fire, earthquakes, all manner of
pestilence, mass hysteria, dogs sleeping with cats, etc.
Mayor: What does he mean biblical?
Dr. Raymond Stantz (Aykroyd): What he means is Old Testament, real wrath of
God type stuff. Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies, rivers and
seas boiling!
Dr. Egon Spengler (Ramis): Forty years of darkness, earthquakes, volcanoes .
. .
Winston (Ernie Hudson): Dead rising from the grave . . .
Dr. Peter Venkman (Murray): Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together,
mass hysteria!
Oh, and earnings. More earnings. Lots more. Thus far, not that
enthralling. Some good moves but some big misses. All the while the
indices are really not going anywhere, and indeed the small and midcaps
broke down during the results.
Okay, maybe the big cap indices are just biding time waiting for the
election, and nothing short of war -- well we already have that -- okay,
nothing short of a new election crisis -- well we have that also, don't we?
Okay, maybe nothing will change the market before the election.
And afterward? I believe no one knows. Opinions are so heavily prejudiced
by the passions on each side that any prediction is bunk. Cuban is full of
crap and he knows it. Even he doesn't buy half the stuff he shovels. That
is what makes him fun.
At this point you can quit trading and buying for longer term or you can
take advantage of the plays. We banked some good money this week but got
punched a few times as well. Still some really nice setups out there that
we will take advantage of if they make the moves.
Personally, it looks downside from our perspective, and that has nothing to
do with the election, just what the patterns are showing. The large caps
are not giving up, however, if NASDAQ goes (the big names did not look good
to end the week) after breaking its trend, SP500 likely goes with it.
Of course the Fed is always there in the shadows, the silent, silent partner
that always talks a semi-tough game but has a hard time putting the game
plan into play. Any selling and it will proceed to further solidify the
moral hazard of propping up markets.
In any event we will focus on the setups and see which way the leaders go
and be ready. There are some groups that sold but are trying to make a
turn; seen that before many times. Despite our view the downside is taking
over, you cannot assume that is the case. Once you do you can get
blindsided.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5190.10
Resistance:
5211 is the 2016 up trendline
The 50 day EMA at 5228
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
The 50 day SMA at 5252
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5340 is the recent all-time closing high.
Support:
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
The 200 day SMA at 4925
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low
S&P 500: Closed at 2126.41
Resistance:
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 2148
The 50 day SMA at 2156
The 2016 trendline at 2160
2175 is the June 2016 high
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
The 200 day SMA at 2077
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 18,207.89
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 18,230
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
The 50 day SMA at 18,274
18,288 from March 2015
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,400 IS THE October recovery attempt high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,960 is the October low
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
The 200 day SMA at 17,717
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
October 28 - Friday
Chain Deflator-Adv., Q3 (8:30): 2.3% prior
GDP-Adv., Q3 (8:30): 2.9% actual versus 2.5% expected, 1.4% prior (no
revisions)
Chain Deflator-Adv., Q3 (8:30): 1.5% actual versus 1.4% expected, 2.3% prior
(no revisions)
Employment Cost Inde, Q3 (8:30): 0.6% actual versus 0.6% expected, 0.6%
prior (no revisions)
Michigan Sentiment -, October (10:00): 87.2 actual versus 88.2 expected,
87.9 prior (no revisions)
October 31 - Monday
Personal Income, September (8:30): 0.4% expected, 0.2% prior
Personal Spending, September (8:30): 0.5% expected, 0.0% prior
Core PCE Price Index, September (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Chicago PMI, October (9:45): 54.0 expected, 54.2 prior
November 1 - Tuesday
ISM Index, October (10:00): 51.7 expected, 51.5 prior
Construction Spendin, September (10:00): 0.5% expected, -0.7% prior
Auto Sales, October (14:00): 5.30M prior
Truck Sales, October (14:00): 8.85M prior
November 2 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 10/29 (7:00): -4.1% prior
ADP Employment Chang, October (8:15): 165K expected, 154K prior
Crude Inventories, 10/29 (10:30): -0.553M prior
FOMC Rate Decision, November (14:00): 0.375% expected, 0.375% prior
November 3 - Thursday
Challenger Job Cuts, October (7:30): -24.7% prior
Initial Claims, 10/29 (8:30): 256K expected, 258K prior
Continuing Claims, 10/22 (8:30): 2039K prior
Unit Labor Costs, Q3 (8:30): 1.2% expected, 4.3% prior
Productivity-Prel, Q3 (8:30): 1.8% expected, -0.6% prior
Unit Labor Costs, Q3 (8:30): 1.2% expected, 4.3% prior
Factory Orders, September (10:00): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
ISM Services, October (10:00): 55.8 expected, 57.1 prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 10/29 (10:30): 73 bcf prior
November 4 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, October (8:30): 175K expected, 156K prior
Nonfarm Private Payr, October (8:30): 170K expected, 167K prior
Hourly Earnings, October (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.2% prior
Unemployment Rate, October (8:30): 4.9% expected, 5.0% prior
Average Workweek, October (8:30): 34.4 expected, 34.4 prior
Trade Balance, September (8:30): -$38.5B expected, -$40.7B prior
End part 1 of 3
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Saturday, October 29, 2016
Saturday, October 22, 2016
The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 10-22-16
* * * *
10/22/2016 Investment House Daily
* * * *
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: CRK; MMM; TCBI
Entry alerts: AMZN; SYRG
Trailing stops: FL
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Expiration, Earnings, Election. Stock indices hold their range, hold
their trends.
- No relative change in the indices, and that is not a bad outcome.
- SOX, NASDAQ still trying to drag the NYSE along with them.
- Nothing is determined yet in a final trend.
Another week of more of the same, threatening to continue a selloff early in
the week then late week, but scrambling to recover. It the market rally
dying as the small Texas town in the classic 'The Last Picture Show' or is
it setting up for still new highs?
The NYSE indices managed to rally to next resistance midweek but then faded.
Friday they were selling again and looked dicey, but after that test lower
on the open, the indices turned and moved steadily higher to midday,
pausing, then resuming the move higher into the close. On the other hand,
SOX and NASDAQ cruised on the session, moving up off support as some big
names in both groups helped them maintain their uptrends.
SP500 -0.18, -0.01%
NASDAQ 15.57, 0.30%
DJ30 -16.64, -0.09%
SP400 -0.08%
RUTX -0.14%
SOX -0.27%
VOLUME: NYSE +11%, NASDAQ -6%. NYSE trade moved back to average for the
first time in two weeks, but it was expiration and some earnings from big
NYSE stocks pushed the volume up. Even so, this was a very tame expiration
volume session and a very tame volume week overall.
A/D: NYSE flat; NASDAQ -1.2:1
The index action changed nothing on the week. NYSE indices are still in the
post-trend break range, testing toward the range lows but refusing to break
down. SOX and NASDAQ held their trends, starting edging higher Friday, but
are still sitting right on the trendlines.
Surprise! That means no change. The NYSE indices are still in 3 month
bearish patterns having broken their near term trends, trading in volatile
ranges, but holding the same lows again and again as they move laterally.
They are again trying to shake off the break lower and consolidate for a try
higher to follow SOX and NASDAQ. They are just about back to where they
were two weeks ago in terms of volatility, i.e. volatility dying down, when
suddenly the volatility returned with a sharp break lower. Could have
happened Friday, but as noted, the early selling found bids and they fought
off another selling attempt.
That keeps the NSYE indices range bounce and that keeps both upside and
downside plays working. Friday we banked some downside gain on MMM as it
accommodated us quite nicely with a gap to the 200 day SMA, finishing out
this leg of the selling and letting us bank a 130+% gain on the last of the
October puts. We could have banked some more gain on AMGN as it too fell to
the 200 day SMA; AMGN did not bounce, however, so we left it to work into
next week.
We also took some upside profit off the table. CRK moved higher then
started to fade; we banked some more of that strong 37% stock and 100+%
option gain. Banked some TCBI as well as it hits its initial target, almost
10% on the stock and 85% on the options. Upside and downside gains. Ah,
trading ranges.
We bought some AMZN as it broke higher and some SYRG in energy. Energy
continues to look quite strong overall along with financials,
semiconductors, airlines, and NASDAQ big names. The market definitely has
the leadership to merge the trends upside, but thus far has not had the
ability to do so.
The on air discussion of why the market is moving is rather interesting and
curious First it was a Clinton victory that was moving stocks higher for a
breakout. When that didn't happen a Clinton victory was blamed as being too
strong with a potential sweep of Congress in addition to the White House;
gridlock would be avoided and the markets are said to favor gridlock and the
'stability' it brings. But the indices have not broke down either.
Perhaps it is more than just one item. Could it possibly be earnings have
just now ramped up? That the economic data is weakening with even some from
the democratic side acknowledging the economy is not that great? That there
still has to be an election?
Whatever the reason, the week saw no change. SOX and NASDAQ held their
trends after a test of trend support. NYSE indices overcame early week
weakness and the Friday reach lower, holding the range to close out the
week. Again, that leaves the NYSE indices in their trading range after the
initial break lower in early September, while SOX and NASDAQ work to hold
their trends and continue higher. That should help support the NYSE
indices. Should, but they still have to work back up in the range and make
the breakout.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
SP500: Monday SP500 put in a lower closing low on the last round of selling
that started 9 sessions back after SP500 failed to take out the 50 day SMA.
After that selling, SP500 recovered to the 20 day EMA Wednesday and Thursday
on the highs, then faded Friday but held the 2015 high. Trying to put in a
higher low after bouncing off the September/October range, MACD put in a
slightly higher low on the recent fade. Overall pattern still bearish but
trying to set up a move to follow NASDAQ.
NASDAQ: As with SP500, NASDAQ started lower on the week then reversed.
Moved through the 50 day EMA then held it on a Thursday test. Bounced
Friday. Unlike SP500, MACD is a bit lower on a higher low, suggesting some
momentum slowing. That said the trend remains in place as NASDAQ sorts out
the past 1.5 weeks where prices bounced all over the place day to day.
Trying to emerge from that and resume higher in its trend.
SOX: Similar action to NASDAQ, holding the trend the past 10 sessions but
quite volatile. Though it was lower Friday, Thursday was a solid session,
and now SOX will try to continue higher in its trend along with NASDAQ.
DJ30: Spending a lot of time bumping at the 50 day EMA and fading back, but
not breaking after the fade. Almost did that Monday after reversing off
that resistance the prior Friday, but recovered. Still could not get
through the 50 day this week, but a good reversal Friday. With the other
indices trying to set up a bounce to again test resistance, DJ30 likely
follows.
SP400: Really the same action as the other NYSE indices, lower early week,
recovered to the 50 day EMA, faded into Friday. Managed to reverse off a
low that reached below the Monday closing low. Still not a great pattern.
RUTX: Lower Monday, reversed to test the 10 day EMA Wednesday, faded back
to the Monday low intraday Friday. Reversed off of that low to a modest
loss. Held the September low and is finding support there. MACD has put in
a lower low, however, and has still not crossed back to the upside.
Momentum lagging but not a bad setup to bounce in the range.
LEADERSHIP
Financial: A good week for financial stocks. BAC up all week, new rally
high Friday. TCBI surged off a 20 day EMA test to a new rally high and
hitting our initial target. JPM, C. MS up all week and solid move Friday.
Big Names: Some nice moves all week. FB provided an entry and it moved
well for us Friday. AMZN started back up off a test. AAPL was not moving
much on the week, but the 10 day EMA test was not bad given the worry about
a couple of iPhone 7's starting fires. Maybe on the next 'Naked and Afraid'
they should take a Samsung or iPhone 7 as a fire starter. NFLX had a huge
week upside and it got huger Friday. GOOG enjoyed a good week, gapping and
rallying, then fading some late week.
Retail: A good finish to the week. JWN bounced Friday. KSS came back.
KIRK is setting up for an entry off its lows. They all struggled but the
ones that have held decently managed a decent week.
Chips: Back and forth on the week but mostly holding the trend. AVGO won't
break lower. MRVL looks good to move higher. SWKS and SLAB held the 20 day
EMA on the week, still trending higher. MXL might try a bounce off its 50
day MA.
Tech: MSFT gapped higher in a new all-time high. It can go higher. STX
struggling below the 50 day MA. WDC may hold its support. BLKB (software)
could be set to move off its 200 day SMA test.
Transports: Airlines posted a good week, SAVE, DAL, UAL. Other transports
were pounded, e.g. rails (UNP).
Oil: Still looking strong for the most part. CWEI struggled, but many are
working. SYRG is moving. AXAS us surging. HOS, WLL setting up. BHI looks
solid along with ESV.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: +15.57 points (+0.3%) to close at 5257.4
Volume: 1.645B (-6.1%)
Up Volume: 806.19M (+12.45M)
Down Volume: 815.06M (-100.01M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.2 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.16 to 1
New Highs: 58 (-10)
New Lows: 50 (-6)
S&P
Stats: -0.18 points (-0.01%) to close at 2141.16
NYSE Volume: 882.7M (+11.24%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.05 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.37 to 1
New Highs: 78 (+8)
New Lows: 28 (+3)
DJ30
Stats: -16.64 points (-0.09%) to close at 18145.71
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 13.34; -0.41
VXN: 15.37; -0.26
VXO: 13.57; -0.44
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.97; -0.02
Nineteen 1.0+ Readings in 6 weeks, 15 of the last 31 sessions over 1.0. A
string of sub-1.0 readings the past week-plus.
Bulls and Bears: Wow an impressive drop in bulls as they continue to tail
off from the peak in the high 59's. Bears moved higher though their rise is
nowhere commensurate with the drop in bulls.
Both bulls and bears slipped a bit. Both are off their highs and lows
respectively, though bulls have lost more ground than bears have gained.
Bulls: 42.9 versus 46.1
Bears: 23.8 versus 23.1
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 42.9 versus 46.1
46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9
versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4%
versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus
47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 23.8 versus 23.1
23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6
Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3%
versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus
23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus
20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8%
versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 1.73% versus 1.75%. Rallied back on the week, moving
through the 200 day SMA and closing the week right at that level. Still a
long way from where it started as bonds sold aggressively for 2 weeks.
Historical: 1.75% versus 1.74% versus 1.74% versus 1.766% versus 1.80%
versus 1.746% versus 1.78% versus 1.723% versus 1.72% versus 1.74% versus
1.72% versus 1.69% versus 1.622% versus 1.60% versus 1.56% versus 1.569%
versus 1.56% versus 1.584% versus 1.62% versus 1.625% versus 1.656% versus
1.693% versus 1.705% versus 1.698% versus 1.70% versus 1.698% versus 1.718%
versus 1.671% versus 1.67% versus 1.61% versus 1.53% versus 1.54% versus
1.601% versus 1.57% versus 1.58% versus 1.57% versus 1.57% versus 1.62%
versus 1.58% versus 1.56% versus 1.54% versus 1.58% versus 1.53% versus
1.55% versus 1.57% versus 1.558% versus 1.51%
EUR/USD: 1.08851 versus 1.0928. Euro undercut the June low Thursday and
Friday.
Historical: 1.0928 versus 1.0971 versus 1.0977 versus 1.10217 versus 1.0966
versus 1.10536 versus 1.1032 versus 1.10598 versus 1.1233 versus 1.1183
versus 1.1147 versus 1.12052 versus 1.12091 versus 1.12066 versus 1.1239
versus 1.1218 versus 1.1228 versus 1.2148 versus 1.1254 versus 1.1248 versus
1.12259
USD/JPY: 103.83 versus 103.990. Forming a handle with a lateral move along
the 10 day EMA. Nice setup to make a new break higher.
Historical: 103.99 versus 103.99 versus 103.602 versus 103.892 versus
103.815 versus 104.201 versus 103.634 versus 103.690 versus 103.698 versus
103.95 versus 103.159 versus 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus
102.035 versus 101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55 versus
100.75 versus 101.034 versus 101.045 versus 100.386
Oil: 50.85, +0.22. New high Wednesday then immediately dropping to test
the 10 day EMA. Held it nicely with a doji Friday. Holding near support
after a sharp selling session such as Thursday is not bad action.
Gold: 1267.70, +0.20. Bounced off the sharp selloff. Moved through the
200 day SMA, tested Thursday and Friday, showing a good doji with tail
Friday. In position for a bit more of a bounce.
MONDAY
More data with New Home Sales, Durables orders, Q3 GDP. More earnings as
well. Lots more earnings.
Also a market with still separate trends. SOX and NASDAQ trending, NYSE
indices not so much though they are holding a lateral range since early
September. Kind of a range to nowhere.
Maybe a range to nowhere for now, but still plenty of upside plays in the
range, particularly as the indices come off the bottom of the range. And of
course there is NASDAQ and SOX in position to move higher. They will be
good for some moves, e.g. FB, AMZN.
Thus, we will look for more upside to play as well as some prime downside.
Definitely both out there and we took downside and upside gain the past
week. They will continue showing up while the NYSE indices continue to
thrash around. Also, as more earnings come out we will get opportunities to
play off of gaps higher and lower as stocks test the initial moves. Still
lots of opportunity inside the NYSE ranges.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5257.40
Resistance:
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5340 is the recent all-time closing high.
Support:
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 5224
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
The 200 day SMA at 4910
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
S&P 500: Closed at 2141.16
Resistance:
The 50 day SMA at 2161
2175 is the June 2016 high
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
The 200 day SMA at 2072
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 18,153.55
Resistance:
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,288 from March 2015
The 50 day SMA at 18,314
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,400 IS THE October recovery attempt high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,960 is the October low
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
The 200 day SMA at 17,671
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
October 25 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, August (9:00): 5.1% expected, 5.0% prior
FHFA Housing Price I, August (9:00): 0.5% prior
Consumer Confidence, October (10:00): 100.8 expected, 104.1 prior
October 26 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 10/22 (7:00): -0.6% prior
International Trade , September (8:30): -$58.4B prior
New Home Sales, September (10:00): 610K expected, 609K prior
Crude Inventories, 10/22 (10:30): -5.247M prior
October 27 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 10/22 (8:30): 259K expected, 260K prior
Continuing Claims, 10/15 (8:30): 2057K prior
Durable Orders, September (8:30): 0.0% expected, 0.0% prior
Durable Orders, Ex-T, September (8:30): 0.3% expected, -0.4% prior
Pending Home Sales, September (10:00): 0.6% expected, -2.4% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 10/22 (10:30): 77 bcf prior
October 28 - Friday
Chain Deflator-Adv., Q3 (8:30): 2.3% prior
GDP-Adv., Q3 (8:30): 2.5% expected, 1.4% prior
Chain Deflator-Adv., Q3 (8:30): 1.4% expected, 2.3% prior
Employment Cost Index, Q3 (8:30): 0.6% expected, 0.6% prior
Michigan Sentiment - Final, October (10:00): 88.2 expected, 87.9 prior
End part 1 of 3
_______________________________________________________
Customer Support: http://www.InvestBilling.com
1153 Bergen Pkwy - Suite I #502 - Evergreen, CO 80439
10/22/2016 Investment House Daily
* * * *
MARKET ALERTS:
Targets hit: CRK; MMM; TCBI
Entry alerts: AMZN; SYRG
Trailing stops: FL
Stop alerts: None issued
The market alert service is a premium level service where we issue intraday
alerts relating to the general market conditions, when stocks hit action
points (buy, stop, target, etc.), and when we see other information
impacting the market or our stocks. To subscribe to the alert service you
can sign up at the following link:
http://www.investmenthouse.com/alertdaily.html
********************************************************************
The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/nxt/nxt.mp4
********************************************************************
The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Expiration, Earnings, Election. Stock indices hold their range, hold
their trends.
- No relative change in the indices, and that is not a bad outcome.
- SOX, NASDAQ still trying to drag the NYSE along with them.
- Nothing is determined yet in a final trend.
Another week of more of the same, threatening to continue a selloff early in
the week then late week, but scrambling to recover. It the market rally
dying as the small Texas town in the classic 'The Last Picture Show' or is
it setting up for still new highs?
The NYSE indices managed to rally to next resistance midweek but then faded.
Friday they were selling again and looked dicey, but after that test lower
on the open, the indices turned and moved steadily higher to midday,
pausing, then resuming the move higher into the close. On the other hand,
SOX and NASDAQ cruised on the session, moving up off support as some big
names in both groups helped them maintain their uptrends.
SP500 -0.18, -0.01%
NASDAQ 15.57, 0.30%
DJ30 -16.64, -0.09%
SP400 -0.08%
RUTX -0.14%
SOX -0.27%
VOLUME: NYSE +11%, NASDAQ -6%. NYSE trade moved back to average for the
first time in two weeks, but it was expiration and some earnings from big
NYSE stocks pushed the volume up. Even so, this was a very tame expiration
volume session and a very tame volume week overall.
A/D: NYSE flat; NASDAQ -1.2:1
The index action changed nothing on the week. NYSE indices are still in the
post-trend break range, testing toward the range lows but refusing to break
down. SOX and NASDAQ held their trends, starting edging higher Friday, but
are still sitting right on the trendlines.
Surprise! That means no change. The NYSE indices are still in 3 month
bearish patterns having broken their near term trends, trading in volatile
ranges, but holding the same lows again and again as they move laterally.
They are again trying to shake off the break lower and consolidate for a try
higher to follow SOX and NASDAQ. They are just about back to where they
were two weeks ago in terms of volatility, i.e. volatility dying down, when
suddenly the volatility returned with a sharp break lower. Could have
happened Friday, but as noted, the early selling found bids and they fought
off another selling attempt.
That keeps the NSYE indices range bounce and that keeps both upside and
downside plays working. Friday we banked some downside gain on MMM as it
accommodated us quite nicely with a gap to the 200 day SMA, finishing out
this leg of the selling and letting us bank a 130+% gain on the last of the
October puts. We could have banked some more gain on AMGN as it too fell to
the 200 day SMA; AMGN did not bounce, however, so we left it to work into
next week.
We also took some upside profit off the table. CRK moved higher then
started to fade; we banked some more of that strong 37% stock and 100+%
option gain. Banked some TCBI as well as it hits its initial target, almost
10% on the stock and 85% on the options. Upside and downside gains. Ah,
trading ranges.
We bought some AMZN as it broke higher and some SYRG in energy. Energy
continues to look quite strong overall along with financials,
semiconductors, airlines, and NASDAQ big names. The market definitely has
the leadership to merge the trends upside, but thus far has not had the
ability to do so.
The on air discussion of why the market is moving is rather interesting and
curious First it was a Clinton victory that was moving stocks higher for a
breakout. When that didn't happen a Clinton victory was blamed as being too
strong with a potential sweep of Congress in addition to the White House;
gridlock would be avoided and the markets are said to favor gridlock and the
'stability' it brings. But the indices have not broke down either.
Perhaps it is more than just one item. Could it possibly be earnings have
just now ramped up? That the economic data is weakening with even some from
the democratic side acknowledging the economy is not that great? That there
still has to be an election?
Whatever the reason, the week saw no change. SOX and NASDAQ held their
trends after a test of trend support. NYSE indices overcame early week
weakness and the Friday reach lower, holding the range to close out the
week. Again, that leaves the NYSE indices in their trading range after the
initial break lower in early September, while SOX and NASDAQ work to hold
their trends and continue higher. That should help support the NYSE
indices. Should, but they still have to work back up in the range and make
the breakout.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
SP500: Monday SP500 put in a lower closing low on the last round of selling
that started 9 sessions back after SP500 failed to take out the 50 day SMA.
After that selling, SP500 recovered to the 20 day EMA Wednesday and Thursday
on the highs, then faded Friday but held the 2015 high. Trying to put in a
higher low after bouncing off the September/October range, MACD put in a
slightly higher low on the recent fade. Overall pattern still bearish but
trying to set up a move to follow NASDAQ.
NASDAQ: As with SP500, NASDAQ started lower on the week then reversed.
Moved through the 50 day EMA then held it on a Thursday test. Bounced
Friday. Unlike SP500, MACD is a bit lower on a higher low, suggesting some
momentum slowing. That said the trend remains in place as NASDAQ sorts out
the past 1.5 weeks where prices bounced all over the place day to day.
Trying to emerge from that and resume higher in its trend.
SOX: Similar action to NASDAQ, holding the trend the past 10 sessions but
quite volatile. Though it was lower Friday, Thursday was a solid session,
and now SOX will try to continue higher in its trend along with NASDAQ.
DJ30: Spending a lot of time bumping at the 50 day EMA and fading back, but
not breaking after the fade. Almost did that Monday after reversing off
that resistance the prior Friday, but recovered. Still could not get
through the 50 day this week, but a good reversal Friday. With the other
indices trying to set up a bounce to again test resistance, DJ30 likely
follows.
SP400: Really the same action as the other NYSE indices, lower early week,
recovered to the 50 day EMA, faded into Friday. Managed to reverse off a
low that reached below the Monday closing low. Still not a great pattern.
RUTX: Lower Monday, reversed to test the 10 day EMA Wednesday, faded back
to the Monday low intraday Friday. Reversed off of that low to a modest
loss. Held the September low and is finding support there. MACD has put in
a lower low, however, and has still not crossed back to the upside.
Momentum lagging but not a bad setup to bounce in the range.
LEADERSHIP
Financial: A good week for financial stocks. BAC up all week, new rally
high Friday. TCBI surged off a 20 day EMA test to a new rally high and
hitting our initial target. JPM, C. MS up all week and solid move Friday.
Big Names: Some nice moves all week. FB provided an entry and it moved
well for us Friday. AMZN started back up off a test. AAPL was not moving
much on the week, but the 10 day EMA test was not bad given the worry about
a couple of iPhone 7's starting fires. Maybe on the next 'Naked and Afraid'
they should take a Samsung or iPhone 7 as a fire starter. NFLX had a huge
week upside and it got huger Friday. GOOG enjoyed a good week, gapping and
rallying, then fading some late week.
Retail: A good finish to the week. JWN bounced Friday. KSS came back.
KIRK is setting up for an entry off its lows. They all struggled but the
ones that have held decently managed a decent week.
Chips: Back and forth on the week but mostly holding the trend. AVGO won't
break lower. MRVL looks good to move higher. SWKS and SLAB held the 20 day
EMA on the week, still trending higher. MXL might try a bounce off its 50
day MA.
Tech: MSFT gapped higher in a new all-time high. It can go higher. STX
struggling below the 50 day MA. WDC may hold its support. BLKB (software)
could be set to move off its 200 day SMA test.
Transports: Airlines posted a good week, SAVE, DAL, UAL. Other transports
were pounded, e.g. rails (UNP).
Oil: Still looking strong for the most part. CWEI struggled, but many are
working. SYRG is moving. AXAS us surging. HOS, WLL setting up. BHI looks
solid along with ESV.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: +15.57 points (+0.3%) to close at 5257.4
Volume: 1.645B (-6.1%)
Up Volume: 806.19M (+12.45M)
Down Volume: 815.06M (-100.01M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.2 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.16 to 1
New Highs: 58 (-10)
New Lows: 50 (-6)
S&P
Stats: -0.18 points (-0.01%) to close at 2141.16
NYSE Volume: 882.7M (+11.24%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.05 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.37 to 1
New Highs: 78 (+8)
New Lows: 28 (+3)
DJ30
Stats: -16.64 points (-0.09%) to close at 18145.71
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 13.34; -0.41
VXN: 15.37; -0.26
VXO: 13.57; -0.44
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.97; -0.02
Nineteen 1.0+ Readings in 6 weeks, 15 of the last 31 sessions over 1.0. A
string of sub-1.0 readings the past week-plus.
Bulls and Bears: Wow an impressive drop in bulls as they continue to tail
off from the peak in the high 59's. Bears moved higher though their rise is
nowhere commensurate with the drop in bulls.
Both bulls and bears slipped a bit. Both are off their highs and lows
respectively, though bulls have lost more ground than bears have gained.
Bulls: 42.9 versus 46.1
Bears: 23.8 versus 23.1
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 42.9 versus 46.1
46.1 versus 46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9
versus 56.7 versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4%
versus 52.5% versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus
47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 23.8 versus 23.1
23.1 versus 22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6
Versus 20.2 versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3%
versus 24.7% versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus
23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus
20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8%
versus 30.3% versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 1.73% versus 1.75%. Rallied back on the week, moving
through the 200 day SMA and closing the week right at that level. Still a
long way from where it started as bonds sold aggressively for 2 weeks.
Historical: 1.75% versus 1.74% versus 1.74% versus 1.766% versus 1.80%
versus 1.746% versus 1.78% versus 1.723% versus 1.72% versus 1.74% versus
1.72% versus 1.69% versus 1.622% versus 1.60% versus 1.56% versus 1.569%
versus 1.56% versus 1.584% versus 1.62% versus 1.625% versus 1.656% versus
1.693% versus 1.705% versus 1.698% versus 1.70% versus 1.698% versus 1.718%
versus 1.671% versus 1.67% versus 1.61% versus 1.53% versus 1.54% versus
1.601% versus 1.57% versus 1.58% versus 1.57% versus 1.57% versus 1.62%
versus 1.58% versus 1.56% versus 1.54% versus 1.58% versus 1.53% versus
1.55% versus 1.57% versus 1.558% versus 1.51%
EUR/USD: 1.08851 versus 1.0928. Euro undercut the June low Thursday and
Friday.
Historical: 1.0928 versus 1.0971 versus 1.0977 versus 1.10217 versus 1.0966
versus 1.10536 versus 1.1032 versus 1.10598 versus 1.1233 versus 1.1183
versus 1.1147 versus 1.12052 versus 1.12091 versus 1.12066 versus 1.1239
versus 1.1218 versus 1.1228 versus 1.2148 versus 1.1254 versus 1.1248 versus
1.12259
USD/JPY: 103.83 versus 103.990. Forming a handle with a lateral move along
the 10 day EMA. Nice setup to make a new break higher.
Historical: 103.99 versus 103.99 versus 103.602 versus 103.892 versus
103.815 versus 104.201 versus 103.634 versus 103.690 versus 103.698 versus
103.95 versus 103.159 versus 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus
102.035 versus 101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55 versus
100.75 versus 101.034 versus 101.045 versus 100.386
Oil: 50.85, +0.22. New high Wednesday then immediately dropping to test
the 10 day EMA. Held it nicely with a doji Friday. Holding near support
after a sharp selling session such as Thursday is not bad action.
Gold: 1267.70, +0.20. Bounced off the sharp selloff. Moved through the
200 day SMA, tested Thursday and Friday, showing a good doji with tail
Friday. In position for a bit more of a bounce.
MONDAY
More data with New Home Sales, Durables orders, Q3 GDP. More earnings as
well. Lots more earnings.
Also a market with still separate trends. SOX and NASDAQ trending, NYSE
indices not so much though they are holding a lateral range since early
September. Kind of a range to nowhere.
Maybe a range to nowhere for now, but still plenty of upside plays in the
range, particularly as the indices come off the bottom of the range. And of
course there is NASDAQ and SOX in position to move higher. They will be
good for some moves, e.g. FB, AMZN.
Thus, we will look for more upside to play as well as some prime downside.
Definitely both out there and we took downside and upside gain the past
week. They will continue showing up while the NYSE indices continue to
thrash around. Also, as more earnings come out we will get opportunities to
play off of gaps higher and lower as stocks test the initial moves. Still
lots of opportunity inside the NYSE ranges.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5257.40
Resistance:
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5287.61 is the September 2016 high
5340 is the recent all-time closing high.
Support:
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 5224
5170 is the October intraday low.
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
The 200 day SMA at 4910
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
S&P 500: Closed at 2141.16
Resistance:
The 50 day SMA at 2161
2175 is the June 2016 high
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the September 2016 low; February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
The 200 day SMA at 2072
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 18,153.55
Resistance:
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,288 from March 2015
The 50 day SMA at 18,314
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
18,400 IS THE October recovery attempt high
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,960 is the October low
17,992 is the early September low
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
The 200 day SMA at 17,671
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
October 25 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, August (9:00): 5.1% expected, 5.0% prior
FHFA Housing Price I, August (9:00): 0.5% prior
Consumer Confidence, October (10:00): 100.8 expected, 104.1 prior
October 26 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 10/22 (7:00): -0.6% prior
International Trade , September (8:30): -$58.4B prior
New Home Sales, September (10:00): 610K expected, 609K prior
Crude Inventories, 10/22 (10:30): -5.247M prior
October 27 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 10/22 (8:30): 259K expected, 260K prior
Continuing Claims, 10/15 (8:30): 2057K prior
Durable Orders, September (8:30): 0.0% expected, 0.0% prior
Durable Orders, Ex-T, September (8:30): 0.3% expected, -0.4% prior
Pending Home Sales, September (10:00): 0.6% expected, -2.4% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 10/22 (10:30): 77 bcf prior
October 28 - Friday
Chain Deflator-Adv., Q3 (8:30): 2.3% prior
GDP-Adv., Q3 (8:30): 2.5% expected, 1.4% prior
Chain Deflator-Adv., Q3 (8:30): 1.4% expected, 2.3% prior
Employment Cost Index, Q3 (8:30): 0.6% expected, 0.6% prior
Michigan Sentiment - Final, October (10:00): 88.2 expected, 87.9 prior
End part 1 of 3
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The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 10-15-16
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MARKET SUMMARY
- Chinese data this time tries to help the market.
- Did the Friends of Janet try to save the market from losses ahead of the
election?
- Budget deficit soars explodes despite record taxes.
- Atlanta Fed takes down Q3 GDP yet again.
- Does the Fed really think anyone believes it?
- Volatility strikes back, leaves the indices technically bearish overall,
though in this market they could bounce near term first. Of course, then
there is the Fed.
Did the friends of Janet just stick save the market again?
It was a week that returned to old themes, one being China. Another is
volatility with day to day and intraday tennis match swings. Another is Fed
action in times of market stress. Not market crisis, but simple market
stress. The economy is, after all, recovering right? After all, the
Atlanta Fed just reduced its Q3 GDP to half its original estimate. It would
be very untoward just ahead of a presidential election if stocks rolled over
and tumbled, belying the purported economic prosperity that everyone talks
about but very few feel. All three were at work during the week, and the
market action suggests they are not done.
On Thursday China reported exports fell 10%. Stocks fell hard, but just as
several indices breached the early September lows hit on that sharp plunge,
they reversed. No positive close but they went a long way in cutting the
losses.
Friday there was more Chinese economic news but this time it was viewed as a
positive. Its PPI rose (0.1% versus -0.3% expected) for the first time
since March 2012 and helped bolster stocks and continue the Thursday
rebound. September retail sales snapped back to 0.6% from -0.2% in August,
adding to the upside impetus.
Stocks started higher but unfortunately hit their high at 10:20ET. That put
NASDAQ at its 50 day SMA, SP500, RUTX and DJ30 at their 50 day EMA, and SOX
and SP400 at their 10 day EMA. In short, they bounced, but bounced right
into resistance. And, resistance held. A sharp drop to midday ensued, and
then the indices range traded into the close.
SP500 0.43, 0.02%
NASDAQ 0.83, 0.02%
DJ30 39.44, 0.22%
SP400 0.01%
RUTX -0.27%
SOX 0.79%
VOLUME: NYSE -8%, NASDAQ -9%. Trade at least faded on the reversal, but it
is because of a lack of volume that helped the reversal along given the
early buying was not strong. Thus trade faded farther below average.
A/D: NYSE flat, NASDAQ flat.
The chart action on the week is bearish. The big Tuesday drop, the pause,
then the Thursday gap and selloff. The rebound was modestly encouraging as
it looked as if the Fed stepped in on SP500 and company and bought the dip,
driving those indices back up inside the early September lows hit on that
massive plunge 6 Fridays back.
The Friday action kept the indices above the early September low but that is
about all it did. The indices moved up to tap resistance either from the 50
day EMA or the 10 day EMA and then reversed to give up nearly all the
session gains. Indeed, RUTX did give up its gains and closed lower.
So, in a nutshell, after a quiet period where volatility died down and the
NYSE indices looked as if they might try to follow NASDAQ and SOX' strength,
the big V returned with gusto this week. A new selloff to new lows on this
pullback for some of the indices, followed by a bounce that looks all but
dead and over with.
That reopens the downside door and again leaves you asking the question,
will the Fed try to stop any selling given the election is less than a month
away? I am inclined to answer that 'yes.' It likely tried it on Thursday
as the indices rolled over to undercut the September low. Will the Fed be
successful? In the short run the Fed can pull that off. It did so in
February and pushed a very solid rebound. Friday Yellen was more dovish,
"steering to the left of the Minutes" as a JPM analyst described it,
indicating that she, of course, will take actions she deems necessary. So,
it appears she will try, but will she overcome the market's bearish
patterns.
NEWS/ECONOMY
Budget Deficit soars even as tax receipts hit a record.
Spending rose 5% to 3.9T as the US borrows $0.15 of every dollar spent.
For fiscal year 2016 the US government's budget deficit surged 34% to $587B.
As a percentage of GDP the deficit climbed to 3.2% from 2.5% the prior year.
Tax receipts hit a record of $3.27T, yet our deficit surges.
As is often stated, there is no revenue problem, there is a spending
problem. Despite raising taxes and taking in more taxes from higher and
newer taxes, the deficit grows. Economists always say you cannot tax your
way out of the kind of deficit the US runs, and this past year provides a
textbook example of that.
Q3 GDP estimates are slashed further. Who would have thought?
Friday the Atlanta Fed, after a rosy 3.8% projection for Q3 initially, made
yet another cut to that forecast. 3%, 2.6%, now just 1.9%. As the data
comes in, the numbers shrink. We have seen this movie too many times, the
one where hope springs eternal that things will get better in the second
half, that the economy is just about to take off. Then, nothing. The same
old stumbling, bumbling economy.
So, here's to a 1.4% 2016 GDP if Q4 can come in with the 1.6% currently
forecast and if the 1.9% Q3 revision is not revised even lower.
Lines of BS Part 2
As noted Thursday, you cannot watch news today and come away with any
semblance of the truth. I am not talking about the reporters per se, though
their inability to grasp the concepts and ask germane, meaningful questions
exposes the failures of journalism schools in addition to the viewpoints
where they work. Today I am talking about the guest experts on television
or the radio, invited to share their wisdom with all of us. They appear on
these stations with their titles, they spout their viewpoints and talking
points, then they leave their short segment, unchallenged as to what was
just stated.
A real time example: Another Federal Reserve bank president interview
Fed bank president Harker appeared on Fox Business Thursday morning to give
his take on rates and the economy. Mr. Harker was asked about the jobs
market and how some aspects looked promising, but others such as
participation rates, were not. As a reminder, the participation rate as
defined by the BLS is the percentage of the civilian non-institutional (i.e.
no prisoners) population aged 16 or over in the labor force (working or
actively seeking work). The participation rate in September stood at 62.9%,
just off lows hit back in the early 1970's and those wonderful economic
times. At that percentage, that tells you 94.1M working age US citizens not
only out of work, but out of the workforce.
Harker confidently stated that the participation rate was low and was going
to stay low for one simple reason: baby boomers are retiring. That is it.
That is his explanation.
Here is the problem with that, and a problem we have with just about all
conclusions the Fed reaches: it is direct conflict with the data that the
BLS compiles.
The participation rate tumbled at the time of the financial crisis from 66.4
to 62.4 in late 2015. There was no mass retirement at the time of the
financial crisis. People simply lost their jobs and could not find jobs to
replace them. As the 'recovery' progressed, they were able to find work,
but many work part time at more than one job or work 'full time' at a job
that pays far less than they full-time salary earned pre-crisis. Moreover,
per the September BLS jobs report, just 48% of all workers hold a full-time
job right now.
But here is the kicker. As I have reported each month for years, more
months than not have shown that it is the elderly, those 55 and over, who
are taking the bulk of the low wage hourly jobs this economy creates. They
are forced back into work because they simply cannot afford to live with 1)
the Fed holding interest rates near 0%, rendering traditional income
producing assets dead assets, 2) surging costs of healthcare (the ACA), 3)
surging rents, 4) food inflation.
Thus the elderly are not retiring but being forced back into the workforce.
Then why is the participation rate stagnant, and in Harker's words, going to
remain depressed?
Look at the other end of the spectrum. We pay people not to work in the US.
Several studies show that a single, non-working mother with 3 to 4 children
who participates in all federal programs has more disposable income than the
same person working a $70K per year job who pays her taxes and is not
eligible for those same benefits because of her income. Again, we pay
people not work in the US.
It is not because they are lazy or stupid. To the contrary, they are quite
smart, taking advantage of what is offered. Whether conscious or not, they
are making rational economic decisions about their lives. That is why I
always ask this simple question to any politician who comes to me for a
donation: do you believe if you pay someone to do something they will do it,
or if you pay someone not to do something they won't do it? If they cannot
answer a clear 'yes' to that question I know they do not understand
economics and accordingly will not make good decisions under pressure.
Thus, we PAY a large percentage of citizens not to work, to stay out of the
workforce. Oh that doesn't mean they just sit and take benefits. No, they
also work jobs here and there for cash and again, make an economic decision
not to report it. The odds of their being caught are low while the benefits
of tax free money are high. Thus they don't work in the system, participate
in the government benefits, work side jobs for cash, and pay no taxes. Oh
yes, and they are out of the workforce.
The Fed connection
But the Fed is not just talking, it is part of the problem. Capital
investment came up in the interview and Harker said that the businesses he
talked with all say it is the uncertainty of the times that keeps them from
making capital investment.
Sure uncertainty always plays a role. Harker is being disingenuous,
however, in ignoring the Fed's role. The Fed has held interest rates near
0% for over a decade. When there is uncertainty there is less inclination
for businesses to risk capital investment. When you have an alternative,
there is no reason to take on the risk of capital investment.
Large corporations can access cash for virtually no cost in the current
extremely low rate environment. They can then turn around and invest in
guaranteed returns such as bonds. Money for nothing, guaranteed return, no
risk, no brainer. They make money with no risk, can use the money to buy
back stock or block competition from entering their domain, further
increasing profitability. They can take the extra profits and buy back more
stock. They reduce the float, automatically increase earnings per share,
trigger their clauses in their compensation packages, take home great
bounuses.
This is the SAME thing the Wells Fargo management was just hauled in front
of Congress for. The same issues that led to the Wells Fargo CEO to resign
Thursday. The management set up a system that rewarded certain behavior and
to what should have been no one's surprise, the employees acted according to
the way the system was set up. To stand up and proclaim ignorance and
innocence as to what your employees do under the system you set up is
despicable.
For the Fed to arrogantly talk of the causes of the lack of capital
investment in the US and gloss over its effects on the citizenry while
wholly ignoring its primary role in the causation is either the height of
arrogance or the epitome of educational ignorance where theory blurs out all
reality or effects of implementing that theory.
The most shocking aspect of this to me (because I am aware of all of the
other statistics stated) is that the Fed members pontificate on policy and
CONTROL OUR FINANCIAL LIVES, yet base their actions regarding our financial
lives on erroneous assumptions. Thus we have a Fed that thinks the economy
is in recovery because the unemployment rate is low even with 94.1M people
out of the workforce. It isn't retirement that has them out, it is the
incentive to not work, and that incentive is not at the higher ages but at
people in their prime earning years. Is it any wonder, outside of the low
wage hour jobs that now predominate this economy, why average wages are so
low?
THE MARKET
The indices look weak once again from a technical standpoint. From a Fed
stand point . . .
CHARTS
SP500: Gapped upside, rallied through the 10 day EMA and near the 50 day
EMA but then faded the entire move. Still above the early September lows on
that sharp selloff, but on the week SP500 renewed the downside with that
sharp Tuesday fall, and the Thursday reversal and Friday fizzled rally are
not encouraging that technically it can hold up. Then there is the Fed . .
.
DJ30: Gapped and rallied to the 50 day EMA on the high, then reversed to
close at the session low. Held a gain; moral victory because the failure at
resistance shows that what buyers there were early fled the scene. DJ30 is
still in the 5 week lateral range following that sharp drop in early
September, but also a technically weak pattern.
NASDAQ: Gapped upside, moved through the 50 day SMA, then faded almost the
entire move, closing back below the 50 day EMA where it started. Not the
most auspicious rebound from selling though NASDAQ does hold one of its
uptrends from early 2016, and NASDAQ's pattern is not as toppy as the other
two large cap indices. It can hold here and continue as if nothing
happened -- but it has to hold over 5165.
RUTX: Rallied off the Thursday selling, moving up near the 50 day EMA but
never touching it before rolling over and closing at the session low. Still
just over the early September low, pretty much RUTX' last line of defense to
hold the current rally off the June low.
SP400: Gapped and rallied to the 10 day EMA then reversed the move to just
a modest gain. Broke the up trendline from January on Tuesday, posted a
lower low undercutting the early September low, then tried a rebound.
Friday SP400 gapped upside, made that 10 day EMA test, then faded the move.
Still over the September low but quite weak.
SOX: SOX showed a nice doji with tail Thursday as SOX made a full test back
to the 50 day MA's that it has used as support on this move. Friday a gap
higher to at tombstone doji that tapped the 10 day EMA on the high and
faded. SOX is still in a nice uptrend but it will have to show it can hold
what might be another quick test of this level.
LEADERSHIP
Big Names: AAPL gapped to a decent gain. AMZN tried to gap off its 20 day
EMA test but faded the entire move. FB struggled and failed to hold a move
back over the 20 day EMA. NFLX gapped over resistance in a recovery move.
GOOG tried higher again, but settled back to the 20 day EMA again on the
close.
Chips: SWKS looks fine testing its 20 day EMA. SLAB is testing its 50 day
MA's. MRVL holding up fine after a quick 50 day EMA test Thursday. AMAT
broke the 50 day MA's on the week. AMD still in a decent recovery. MU
tested the 50 day MA's on the week. Mostly in good enough shape, but
definitely testing.
Industrial equipment: Solid action with CAT bouncing off the 20 day EMA.
CMI is holding the 20 day EMA.
Oil: Still some very good tests, e.g. APA, CRK. Others have run a long way
and may be a bit tired but have not broken, e.g. CWEI, APC. HAL has surged,
needs a breather.
Financial: A mixed bag Friday but decent enough n the week. BAC tested but
held. C surged but purged though its pattern is still fine. TCBI is
holding the 20 day EMA but it is struggling.
Retail: Some downgrades in the sector department stores and that hurt M,
KSS and DDS though JWN fared just fine. BBY faded just a bit of its move.
Apparel makers are still weak, e.g. NKE, LULU. UA is down but is in an
interesting pattern.
Tech: Some of the recent leaders fell on the week, e.g. STX, WDC. MSFT
continues to hang in its lateral range as does VMW.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: +0.83 points (+0.02%) to close at 5214.16
Volume: 1.573B (-9.11%)
Up Volume: 824.63M (+275.99M)
Down Volume: 737.23M (-372.77M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.05 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.57 to 1
New Highs: 38 (+16)
New Lows: 79 (-20)
S&P
Stats: +0.43 points (+0.02%) to close at 2132.98
NYSE Volume: 808.1M (-7.85%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.01 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.97 to 1
New Highs: 49 (+13)
New Lows: 22 (-20)
DJ30
Stats: +39.44 points (+0.22%) to close at 18138.38
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 16.12; -0.57
VXN: 17.4; -0.25
VXO: 15.99; -0.56
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.94; -0.03
Nineteen 1.0+ Readings in 5 weeks, 15 of the last 26 sessions over 1.0.
Lots of pessimism.
Bulls and Bears: Both bulls and bears slipped a bit. Both are off their
highs and lows respectively, though bulls have lost more ground than bears
have gained.
Bulls: 46.1 versus 46.7
Bears: 23.1 versus 22.8
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 46.1 versus 46.7
46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7
versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5%
versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus
45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 23.1 versus 22.8
22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2
versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7%
versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus
23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus
21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3%
versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 1.80% versus 1.746%. After a gap higher off the 200 day
SMA Thursday, TLT gapped sharply lower to a lower low on this selloff.
Bonds have cracked.
Historical: 1.746% versus 1.78% versus 1.723% versus 1.72% versus 1.74%
versus 1.72% versus 1.69% versus 1.622% versus 1.60% versus 1.56% versus
1.569% versus 1.56% versus 1.584% versus 1.62% versus 1.625% versus 1.656%
versus 1.693% versus 1.705% versus 1.698% versus 1.70% versus 1.698% versus
1.718% versus 1.671% versus 1.67% versus 1.61% versus 1.53% versus 1.54%
versus 1.601% versus 1.57% versus 1.58% versus 1.57% versus 1.57% versus
1.62% versus 1.58% versus 1.56% versus 1.54% versus 1.58% versus 1.53%
versus 1.55% versus 1.57% versus 1.558% versus 1.51%
EUR/USD: 1.0966 versus 1.10536. The euro continued its weeklong tumble
from the now failed August/September consolidation, closing in on the June
and July lows.
Historical: 1.10536 versus 1.1032 versus 1.10598 versus 1.1233 versus 1.1183
versus 1.1147 versus 1.12052 versus 1.12091 versus 1.12066 versus 1.1239
versus 1.1218 versus 1.1228 versus 1.2148 versus 1.1254 versus 1.1248 versus
1.12259 versus 1.12061 versus 1.11898 versus 1.1151 versus 1.1177 versus
1.1155 versus 1.12444 versus 1.1245 versus 1.12196 versus 1.12335 versus
1.12318 versus 1.12661 versus 1.1239 versus 1.12554 versus 1.11545 versus
1.11943 versus 1.11572 versus 1.1146 versus 1.11708 versus 1.11949 versus
1.12894 versus 1.1300 versus 1.13045 versus 1.3254 versus 1.13251
USD/JPY: 104.201 versus 103.634. The dollar continues a trend upside,
breaking through the early September high Friday. Not a huge blast off but a
break of the last recovery high.
Historical: 103.634 versus 103.690 versus 103.698 versus 103.95 versus
103.159 versus 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus 102.035 versus
101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55 versus 100.75 versus
101.034 versus 101.045 versus 100.386 versus 101.714 versus 101.956 versus
102.280 versus 102.086 versus 102.172 versus 102.155 versus 102.814 versus
101.57 versus 102.685 versus 102.439 versus 102.439 versus 101.698 versus
101.412 versus 103.92 versus 103.226 versus 103.269 versus 102.965 versus
102.160 versus 101.808 versus 100.485 versus 100.306 versus 100.27 versus
100.297 versus 100.21 versus 99.843
Oil: 50.35, -0.09. After surging to the June high early week, oil backed
off, but it appears to be just a test of the rally, holding at the 10 day
EMA Thursday with a nice doji, trading flat Friday. Higher inventories,
higher rig counts could not deter oil's advance.
Gold: 1255.50, -2.10. Gold is still licking its wounds after the massive
drop 2 weeks back. It broke the 200 day SMA and worked laterally just below
that level all week. It may still try to bounce a bit first, but it still
looks bearish. We want to enter GLD or other mining stocks (e.g. ABX) after
a modest bounce in gold prices stalls and starts to roll back over.
MONDAY
Volatility strikes back. After going dormant for more than a week as the
indices narrowed their ranges, suddenly the triple digit intraday moves
erupted again. That failed test of the resistance Monday followed by the
Tuesday sharp drop, and now the market is gyrating in the aftershocks again.
Just aftershocks that will settle down again or was Tuesday simply another
in a series of market quakes that started six Fridays back?
Earnings go full monty the coming week and we start to see just what Q3
really looked like itself and in the macro picture of the profits trend
lower. The start of the season was woeful but Friday looked much better
with a trio of good bank results from JPM, WFC, C. Heck, they should look
good as they are still getting money for nothing. Doesn't everyone wish
they could borrow from the Fed for next to nothing then use the money to buy
guaranteed return assets thus ensuring a profit? You have to ask the
question if they can why can't we? About the only thing the consumer has
going for him is a strengthening dollar. That is nice but thus far it has
not had an impact on rising oil prices, the usual effect of a higher dollar.
But, I digress.
Earnings season will be in full swing and we were wanting a pre-earnings
run. Not exactly a success at this stage. AAPL is more or less going to
plan but the rest of the market is hesitant, and looking at the index
patterns that is no mystery why. DJ30, SP500, SP400, RUTX have the rollover
look, and NASDAQ is not far from that more homely appearance. Can SOX hold
them up? More germane, can the Fed and the friend's of Janet (BOE, ECB)
hold them up? My goodness, man, an election depends upon it! How can the
US citizens decide to do what Wall Street wants them to do if there is
market turmoil? How did we ever get by before there was a Fed?
We picked up some downside positions last week, a few upside, cut some plays
that were problematic, but did not get too heavy into more buying as the
indices fought between themselves as to what trend would take control. As
of Friday that is still an open question though the downside looks stronger
technically, but the upside has SOX and the Fed on its side.
As for this week we are looking at some more upside and downside and still
have to be patient on getting really involved until one trend dominates.
There could be a bounce off of the lows in the range as defined by that
initial September selloff. A rebound back up to the top of the range is
playable, but until something changes, each move has to be viewed as more of
a trade on a bounce versus a new strong run. Moreover, with earnings
cranking up to full speed plays are somewhat truncated anyway.
Thus we here are looking at the new week as one of more downside opportunity
than upside after the late week action, though with this market it may take
a bounce off support back up into the range to set the next downside.
Overall, prognosis negative with the outlier of the Federal reserve and its
band of central banks ready to buy equities.
It is always interesting to hear the explanations for why the market does
one thing or another as if there is one story that catalyzes market moves.
Oh sure sometimes a major story explodes and markets do likewise. Other
times there is no major story so the speculation turns pretty creative. Last
week it was the notion on CNBC that not only did a Clinton win look more
certain but that it might lead to a sweep in the Congress as well. Thus the
market was selling because it wanted gridlock. Of course another financial
station argued that the more likely a Clinton victory appeared, the less
likely a Congressional sweep would occur because those who crossed over to
vote Clinton would still vote republican for the congressional races. It is
no wonder I am reading stories about people suffering from election related
ailments. It is enough to make your head hurt.
The key is going to be which direction DJ30, SP500, SP400 and RUTX take out
of this 6 week lateral move. When they break higher or lower, that is the
move we really get deeply involved with. Until then we make a few trades
with a little bit of money. We can make some great money with them if we
don't try for the long ball. If you do, this up and down action can grind
up your accounts. Just play for singles (to use baseball terminology since
it is the playoffs), take the gain, and be patient as we wait for the
indices to make their definitive break.
It is also fall, so go out and enjoy some of the better weather that most
are experiencing. Washington DC people may do what they can to louse it up,
but why not the rest of us do what we can to keep it at least a nice place
to be by being neighborly, friendly, and helpful. Oh yes, and use what they
are doing in DC to make us money in the market!
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5213.33
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 5221
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5287.61 is the all-time high from September 2016
5340 is the recent all-time closing high.
Support:
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
The 200 day SMA at 4900
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
S&P 500: Closed at 2132.55
Resistance:
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
The 50 day SMA at 2165
2175 is the June 2016 high
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
The 200 day SMA at 2068
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 18,102.53
Resistance:
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,288 from March 2015
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
The 50 day SMA at 18,357
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
The 200 day SMA at 17,640
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
October 12 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 10/08 (7:00): -6.0% actual versus 2.9% prior
JOLTS - Job Openings, August (10:00): 5.443M actual versus 5.831M prior
(revised from 5.871M)
Crude Inventories, 10/08 (10:30): -2.976M prior
Crude Inventories, 10/08 (11:00): -2.976M prior
FOMC Minutes, September 21 (14:00)
October 13 - Thursday
Crude Inventories, 10/08 (12:00): -2.976M prior
Initial Claims, 10/08 (8:30): 246K actual versus 255K expected, 246K prior
(revised from 249K)
Continuing Claims, 10/01 (8:30): 2046K actual versus 2062K prior (revised
from 2058K)
Export Prices ex-ag., September (8:30): 0.4% actual versus -0.6% prior
(revised from -0.4%)
Import Prices ex-oil, September (8:30): 0.0% actual versus -0.1% prior
(revised from 0.0%)
Natural Gas Inventor, 10/08 (10:30): 79 bcf actual versus 80 bcf prior
Crude Inventories, 10/08 (11:00): 4.900M actual versus -2.976M prior
Treasury Budget, September (14:00): $90.9B prior
October 14 - Friday
PPI, September (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.0% prior
Core PPI, September (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Retail Sales, September (8:30): 0.6% expected, -0.3% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, September (8:30): 0.5% expected, -0.1% prior
Business Inventories, August (10:00): 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Mich Sentiment, October (10:00): 92.4 expected, 91.2 prior
End part 1 of 3
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
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If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- Chinese data this time tries to help the market.
- Did the Friends of Janet try to save the market from losses ahead of the
election?
- Budget deficit soars explodes despite record taxes.
- Atlanta Fed takes down Q3 GDP yet again.
- Does the Fed really think anyone believes it?
- Volatility strikes back, leaves the indices technically bearish overall,
though in this market they could bounce near term first. Of course, then
there is the Fed.
Did the friends of Janet just stick save the market again?
It was a week that returned to old themes, one being China. Another is
volatility with day to day and intraday tennis match swings. Another is Fed
action in times of market stress. Not market crisis, but simple market
stress. The economy is, after all, recovering right? After all, the
Atlanta Fed just reduced its Q3 GDP to half its original estimate. It would
be very untoward just ahead of a presidential election if stocks rolled over
and tumbled, belying the purported economic prosperity that everyone talks
about but very few feel. All three were at work during the week, and the
market action suggests they are not done.
On Thursday China reported exports fell 10%. Stocks fell hard, but just as
several indices breached the early September lows hit on that sharp plunge,
they reversed. No positive close but they went a long way in cutting the
losses.
Friday there was more Chinese economic news but this time it was viewed as a
positive. Its PPI rose (0.1% versus -0.3% expected) for the first time
since March 2012 and helped bolster stocks and continue the Thursday
rebound. September retail sales snapped back to 0.6% from -0.2% in August,
adding to the upside impetus.
Stocks started higher but unfortunately hit their high at 10:20ET. That put
NASDAQ at its 50 day SMA, SP500, RUTX and DJ30 at their 50 day EMA, and SOX
and SP400 at their 10 day EMA. In short, they bounced, but bounced right
into resistance. And, resistance held. A sharp drop to midday ensued, and
then the indices range traded into the close.
SP500 0.43, 0.02%
NASDAQ 0.83, 0.02%
DJ30 39.44, 0.22%
SP400 0.01%
RUTX -0.27%
SOX 0.79%
VOLUME: NYSE -8%, NASDAQ -9%. Trade at least faded on the reversal, but it
is because of a lack of volume that helped the reversal along given the
early buying was not strong. Thus trade faded farther below average.
A/D: NYSE flat, NASDAQ flat.
The chart action on the week is bearish. The big Tuesday drop, the pause,
then the Thursday gap and selloff. The rebound was modestly encouraging as
it looked as if the Fed stepped in on SP500 and company and bought the dip,
driving those indices back up inside the early September lows hit on that
massive plunge 6 Fridays back.
The Friday action kept the indices above the early September low but that is
about all it did. The indices moved up to tap resistance either from the 50
day EMA or the 10 day EMA and then reversed to give up nearly all the
session gains. Indeed, RUTX did give up its gains and closed lower.
So, in a nutshell, after a quiet period where volatility died down and the
NYSE indices looked as if they might try to follow NASDAQ and SOX' strength,
the big V returned with gusto this week. A new selloff to new lows on this
pullback for some of the indices, followed by a bounce that looks all but
dead and over with.
That reopens the downside door and again leaves you asking the question,
will the Fed try to stop any selling given the election is less than a month
away? I am inclined to answer that 'yes.' It likely tried it on Thursday
as the indices rolled over to undercut the September low. Will the Fed be
successful? In the short run the Fed can pull that off. It did so in
February and pushed a very solid rebound. Friday Yellen was more dovish,
"steering to the left of the Minutes" as a JPM analyst described it,
indicating that she, of course, will take actions she deems necessary. So,
it appears she will try, but will she overcome the market's bearish
patterns.
NEWS/ECONOMY
Budget Deficit soars even as tax receipts hit a record.
Spending rose 5% to 3.9T as the US borrows $0.15 of every dollar spent.
For fiscal year 2016 the US government's budget deficit surged 34% to $587B.
As a percentage of GDP the deficit climbed to 3.2% from 2.5% the prior year.
Tax receipts hit a record of $3.27T, yet our deficit surges.
As is often stated, there is no revenue problem, there is a spending
problem. Despite raising taxes and taking in more taxes from higher and
newer taxes, the deficit grows. Economists always say you cannot tax your
way out of the kind of deficit the US runs, and this past year provides a
textbook example of that.
Q3 GDP estimates are slashed further. Who would have thought?
Friday the Atlanta Fed, after a rosy 3.8% projection for Q3 initially, made
yet another cut to that forecast. 3%, 2.6%, now just 1.9%. As the data
comes in, the numbers shrink. We have seen this movie too many times, the
one where hope springs eternal that things will get better in the second
half, that the economy is just about to take off. Then, nothing. The same
old stumbling, bumbling economy.
So, here's to a 1.4% 2016 GDP if Q4 can come in with the 1.6% currently
forecast and if the 1.9% Q3 revision is not revised even lower.
Lines of BS Part 2
As noted Thursday, you cannot watch news today and come away with any
semblance of the truth. I am not talking about the reporters per se, though
their inability to grasp the concepts and ask germane, meaningful questions
exposes the failures of journalism schools in addition to the viewpoints
where they work. Today I am talking about the guest experts on television
or the radio, invited to share their wisdom with all of us. They appear on
these stations with their titles, they spout their viewpoints and talking
points, then they leave their short segment, unchallenged as to what was
just stated.
A real time example: Another Federal Reserve bank president interview
Fed bank president Harker appeared on Fox Business Thursday morning to give
his take on rates and the economy. Mr. Harker was asked about the jobs
market and how some aspects looked promising, but others such as
participation rates, were not. As a reminder, the participation rate as
defined by the BLS is the percentage of the civilian non-institutional (i.e.
no prisoners) population aged 16 or over in the labor force (working or
actively seeking work). The participation rate in September stood at 62.9%,
just off lows hit back in the early 1970's and those wonderful economic
times. At that percentage, that tells you 94.1M working age US citizens not
only out of work, but out of the workforce.
Harker confidently stated that the participation rate was low and was going
to stay low for one simple reason: baby boomers are retiring. That is it.
That is his explanation.
Here is the problem with that, and a problem we have with just about all
conclusions the Fed reaches: it is direct conflict with the data that the
BLS compiles.
The participation rate tumbled at the time of the financial crisis from 66.4
to 62.4 in late 2015. There was no mass retirement at the time of the
financial crisis. People simply lost their jobs and could not find jobs to
replace them. As the 'recovery' progressed, they were able to find work,
but many work part time at more than one job or work 'full time' at a job
that pays far less than they full-time salary earned pre-crisis. Moreover,
per the September BLS jobs report, just 48% of all workers hold a full-time
job right now.
But here is the kicker. As I have reported each month for years, more
months than not have shown that it is the elderly, those 55 and over, who
are taking the bulk of the low wage hourly jobs this economy creates. They
are forced back into work because they simply cannot afford to live with 1)
the Fed holding interest rates near 0%, rendering traditional income
producing assets dead assets, 2) surging costs of healthcare (the ACA), 3)
surging rents, 4) food inflation.
Thus the elderly are not retiring but being forced back into the workforce.
Then why is the participation rate stagnant, and in Harker's words, going to
remain depressed?
Look at the other end of the spectrum. We pay people not to work in the US.
Several studies show that a single, non-working mother with 3 to 4 children
who participates in all federal programs has more disposable income than the
same person working a $70K per year job who pays her taxes and is not
eligible for those same benefits because of her income. Again, we pay
people not work in the US.
It is not because they are lazy or stupid. To the contrary, they are quite
smart, taking advantage of what is offered. Whether conscious or not, they
are making rational economic decisions about their lives. That is why I
always ask this simple question to any politician who comes to me for a
donation: do you believe if you pay someone to do something they will do it,
or if you pay someone not to do something they won't do it? If they cannot
answer a clear 'yes' to that question I know they do not understand
economics and accordingly will not make good decisions under pressure.
Thus, we PAY a large percentage of citizens not to work, to stay out of the
workforce. Oh that doesn't mean they just sit and take benefits. No, they
also work jobs here and there for cash and again, make an economic decision
not to report it. The odds of their being caught are low while the benefits
of tax free money are high. Thus they don't work in the system, participate
in the government benefits, work side jobs for cash, and pay no taxes. Oh
yes, and they are out of the workforce.
The Fed connection
But the Fed is not just talking, it is part of the problem. Capital
investment came up in the interview and Harker said that the businesses he
talked with all say it is the uncertainty of the times that keeps them from
making capital investment.
Sure uncertainty always plays a role. Harker is being disingenuous,
however, in ignoring the Fed's role. The Fed has held interest rates near
0% for over a decade. When there is uncertainty there is less inclination
for businesses to risk capital investment. When you have an alternative,
there is no reason to take on the risk of capital investment.
Large corporations can access cash for virtually no cost in the current
extremely low rate environment. They can then turn around and invest in
guaranteed returns such as bonds. Money for nothing, guaranteed return, no
risk, no brainer. They make money with no risk, can use the money to buy
back stock or block competition from entering their domain, further
increasing profitability. They can take the extra profits and buy back more
stock. They reduce the float, automatically increase earnings per share,
trigger their clauses in their compensation packages, take home great
bounuses.
This is the SAME thing the Wells Fargo management was just hauled in front
of Congress for. The same issues that led to the Wells Fargo CEO to resign
Thursday. The management set up a system that rewarded certain behavior and
to what should have been no one's surprise, the employees acted according to
the way the system was set up. To stand up and proclaim ignorance and
innocence as to what your employees do under the system you set up is
despicable.
For the Fed to arrogantly talk of the causes of the lack of capital
investment in the US and gloss over its effects on the citizenry while
wholly ignoring its primary role in the causation is either the height of
arrogance or the epitome of educational ignorance where theory blurs out all
reality or effects of implementing that theory.
The most shocking aspect of this to me (because I am aware of all of the
other statistics stated) is that the Fed members pontificate on policy and
CONTROL OUR FINANCIAL LIVES, yet base their actions regarding our financial
lives on erroneous assumptions. Thus we have a Fed that thinks the economy
is in recovery because the unemployment rate is low even with 94.1M people
out of the workforce. It isn't retirement that has them out, it is the
incentive to not work, and that incentive is not at the higher ages but at
people in their prime earning years. Is it any wonder, outside of the low
wage hour jobs that now predominate this economy, why average wages are so
low?
THE MARKET
The indices look weak once again from a technical standpoint. From a Fed
stand point . . .
CHARTS
SP500: Gapped upside, rallied through the 10 day EMA and near the 50 day
EMA but then faded the entire move. Still above the early September lows on
that sharp selloff, but on the week SP500 renewed the downside with that
sharp Tuesday fall, and the Thursday reversal and Friday fizzled rally are
not encouraging that technically it can hold up. Then there is the Fed . .
.
DJ30: Gapped and rallied to the 50 day EMA on the high, then reversed to
close at the session low. Held a gain; moral victory because the failure at
resistance shows that what buyers there were early fled the scene. DJ30 is
still in the 5 week lateral range following that sharp drop in early
September, but also a technically weak pattern.
NASDAQ: Gapped upside, moved through the 50 day SMA, then faded almost the
entire move, closing back below the 50 day EMA where it started. Not the
most auspicious rebound from selling though NASDAQ does hold one of its
uptrends from early 2016, and NASDAQ's pattern is not as toppy as the other
two large cap indices. It can hold here and continue as if nothing
happened -- but it has to hold over 5165.
RUTX: Rallied off the Thursday selling, moving up near the 50 day EMA but
never touching it before rolling over and closing at the session low. Still
just over the early September low, pretty much RUTX' last line of defense to
hold the current rally off the June low.
SP400: Gapped and rallied to the 10 day EMA then reversed the move to just
a modest gain. Broke the up trendline from January on Tuesday, posted a
lower low undercutting the early September low, then tried a rebound.
Friday SP400 gapped upside, made that 10 day EMA test, then faded the move.
Still over the September low but quite weak.
SOX: SOX showed a nice doji with tail Thursday as SOX made a full test back
to the 50 day MA's that it has used as support on this move. Friday a gap
higher to at tombstone doji that tapped the 10 day EMA on the high and
faded. SOX is still in a nice uptrend but it will have to show it can hold
what might be another quick test of this level.
LEADERSHIP
Big Names: AAPL gapped to a decent gain. AMZN tried to gap off its 20 day
EMA test but faded the entire move. FB struggled and failed to hold a move
back over the 20 day EMA. NFLX gapped over resistance in a recovery move.
GOOG tried higher again, but settled back to the 20 day EMA again on the
close.
Chips: SWKS looks fine testing its 20 day EMA. SLAB is testing its 50 day
MA's. MRVL holding up fine after a quick 50 day EMA test Thursday. AMAT
broke the 50 day MA's on the week. AMD still in a decent recovery. MU
tested the 50 day MA's on the week. Mostly in good enough shape, but
definitely testing.
Industrial equipment: Solid action with CAT bouncing off the 20 day EMA.
CMI is holding the 20 day EMA.
Oil: Still some very good tests, e.g. APA, CRK. Others have run a long way
and may be a bit tired but have not broken, e.g. CWEI, APC. HAL has surged,
needs a breather.
Financial: A mixed bag Friday but decent enough n the week. BAC tested but
held. C surged but purged though its pattern is still fine. TCBI is
holding the 20 day EMA but it is struggling.
Retail: Some downgrades in the sector department stores and that hurt M,
KSS and DDS though JWN fared just fine. BBY faded just a bit of its move.
Apparel makers are still weak, e.g. NKE, LULU. UA is down but is in an
interesting pattern.
Tech: Some of the recent leaders fell on the week, e.g. STX, WDC. MSFT
continues to hang in its lateral range as does VMW.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: +0.83 points (+0.02%) to close at 5214.16
Volume: 1.573B (-9.11%)
Up Volume: 824.63M (+275.99M)
Down Volume: 737.23M (-372.77M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.05 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 2.57 to 1
New Highs: 38 (+16)
New Lows: 79 (-20)
S&P
Stats: +0.43 points (+0.02%) to close at 2132.98
NYSE Volume: 808.1M (-7.85%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.01 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.97 to 1
New Highs: 49 (+13)
New Lows: 22 (-20)
DJ30
Stats: +39.44 points (+0.22%) to close at 18138.38
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 16.12; -0.57
VXN: 17.4; -0.25
VXO: 15.99; -0.56
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.94; -0.03
Nineteen 1.0+ Readings in 5 weeks, 15 of the last 26 sessions over 1.0.
Lots of pessimism.
Bulls and Bears: Both bulls and bears slipped a bit. Both are off their
highs and lows respectively, though bulls have lost more ground than bears
have gained.
Bulls: 46.1 versus 46.7
Bears: 23.1 versus 22.8
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 46.1 versus 46.7
46.7 versus 45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7
versus 56.2 versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5%
versus 47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus
45.4% versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2
Bears: 23.1 versus 22.8
22.8 versus 23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2
versus 20.0 versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7%
versus 24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus
23.7% versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus
21.7% versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3%
versus 35.4%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 1.80% versus 1.746%. After a gap higher off the 200 day
SMA Thursday, TLT gapped sharply lower to a lower low on this selloff.
Bonds have cracked.
Historical: 1.746% versus 1.78% versus 1.723% versus 1.72% versus 1.74%
versus 1.72% versus 1.69% versus 1.622% versus 1.60% versus 1.56% versus
1.569% versus 1.56% versus 1.584% versus 1.62% versus 1.625% versus 1.656%
versus 1.693% versus 1.705% versus 1.698% versus 1.70% versus 1.698% versus
1.718% versus 1.671% versus 1.67% versus 1.61% versus 1.53% versus 1.54%
versus 1.601% versus 1.57% versus 1.58% versus 1.57% versus 1.57% versus
1.62% versus 1.58% versus 1.56% versus 1.54% versus 1.58% versus 1.53%
versus 1.55% versus 1.57% versus 1.558% versus 1.51%
EUR/USD: 1.0966 versus 1.10536. The euro continued its weeklong tumble
from the now failed August/September consolidation, closing in on the June
and July lows.
Historical: 1.10536 versus 1.1032 versus 1.10598 versus 1.1233 versus 1.1183
versus 1.1147 versus 1.12052 versus 1.12091 versus 1.12066 versus 1.1239
versus 1.1218 versus 1.1228 versus 1.2148 versus 1.1254 versus 1.1248 versus
1.12259 versus 1.12061 versus 1.11898 versus 1.1151 versus 1.1177 versus
1.1155 versus 1.12444 versus 1.1245 versus 1.12196 versus 1.12335 versus
1.12318 versus 1.12661 versus 1.1239 versus 1.12554 versus 1.11545 versus
1.11943 versus 1.11572 versus 1.1146 versus 1.11708 versus 1.11949 versus
1.12894 versus 1.1300 versus 1.13045 versus 1.3254 versus 1.13251
USD/JPY: 104.201 versus 103.634. The dollar continues a trend upside,
breaking through the early September high Friday. Not a huge blast off but a
break of the last recovery high.
Historical: 103.634 versus 103.690 versus 103.698 versus 103.95 versus
103.159 versus 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus 102.035 versus
101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55 versus 100.75 versus
101.034 versus 101.045 versus 100.386 versus 101.714 versus 101.956 versus
102.280 versus 102.086 versus 102.172 versus 102.155 versus 102.814 versus
101.57 versus 102.685 versus 102.439 versus 102.439 versus 101.698 versus
101.412 versus 103.92 versus 103.226 versus 103.269 versus 102.965 versus
102.160 versus 101.808 versus 100.485 versus 100.306 versus 100.27 versus
100.297 versus 100.21 versus 99.843
Oil: 50.35, -0.09. After surging to the June high early week, oil backed
off, but it appears to be just a test of the rally, holding at the 10 day
EMA Thursday with a nice doji, trading flat Friday. Higher inventories,
higher rig counts could not deter oil's advance.
Gold: 1255.50, -2.10. Gold is still licking its wounds after the massive
drop 2 weeks back. It broke the 200 day SMA and worked laterally just below
that level all week. It may still try to bounce a bit first, but it still
looks bearish. We want to enter GLD or other mining stocks (e.g. ABX) after
a modest bounce in gold prices stalls and starts to roll back over.
MONDAY
Volatility strikes back. After going dormant for more than a week as the
indices narrowed their ranges, suddenly the triple digit intraday moves
erupted again. That failed test of the resistance Monday followed by the
Tuesday sharp drop, and now the market is gyrating in the aftershocks again.
Just aftershocks that will settle down again or was Tuesday simply another
in a series of market quakes that started six Fridays back?
Earnings go full monty the coming week and we start to see just what Q3
really looked like itself and in the macro picture of the profits trend
lower. The start of the season was woeful but Friday looked much better
with a trio of good bank results from JPM, WFC, C. Heck, they should look
good as they are still getting money for nothing. Doesn't everyone wish
they could borrow from the Fed for next to nothing then use the money to buy
guaranteed return assets thus ensuring a profit? You have to ask the
question if they can why can't we? About the only thing the consumer has
going for him is a strengthening dollar. That is nice but thus far it has
not had an impact on rising oil prices, the usual effect of a higher dollar.
But, I digress.
Earnings season will be in full swing and we were wanting a pre-earnings
run. Not exactly a success at this stage. AAPL is more or less going to
plan but the rest of the market is hesitant, and looking at the index
patterns that is no mystery why. DJ30, SP500, SP400, RUTX have the rollover
look, and NASDAQ is not far from that more homely appearance. Can SOX hold
them up? More germane, can the Fed and the friend's of Janet (BOE, ECB)
hold them up? My goodness, man, an election depends upon it! How can the
US citizens decide to do what Wall Street wants them to do if there is
market turmoil? How did we ever get by before there was a Fed?
We picked up some downside positions last week, a few upside, cut some plays
that were problematic, but did not get too heavy into more buying as the
indices fought between themselves as to what trend would take control. As
of Friday that is still an open question though the downside looks stronger
technically, but the upside has SOX and the Fed on its side.
As for this week we are looking at some more upside and downside and still
have to be patient on getting really involved until one trend dominates.
There could be a bounce off of the lows in the range as defined by that
initial September selloff. A rebound back up to the top of the range is
playable, but until something changes, each move has to be viewed as more of
a trade on a bounce versus a new strong run. Moreover, with earnings
cranking up to full speed plays are somewhat truncated anyway.
Thus we here are looking at the new week as one of more downside opportunity
than upside after the late week action, though with this market it may take
a bounce off support back up into the range to set the next downside.
Overall, prognosis negative with the outlier of the Federal reserve and its
band of central banks ready to buy equities.
It is always interesting to hear the explanations for why the market does
one thing or another as if there is one story that catalyzes market moves.
Oh sure sometimes a major story explodes and markets do likewise. Other
times there is no major story so the speculation turns pretty creative. Last
week it was the notion on CNBC that not only did a Clinton win look more
certain but that it might lead to a sweep in the Congress as well. Thus the
market was selling because it wanted gridlock. Of course another financial
station argued that the more likely a Clinton victory appeared, the less
likely a Congressional sweep would occur because those who crossed over to
vote Clinton would still vote republican for the congressional races. It is
no wonder I am reading stories about people suffering from election related
ailments. It is enough to make your head hurt.
The key is going to be which direction DJ30, SP500, SP400 and RUTX take out
of this 6 week lateral move. When they break higher or lower, that is the
move we really get deeply involved with. Until then we make a few trades
with a little bit of money. We can make some great money with them if we
don't try for the long ball. If you do, this up and down action can grind
up your accounts. Just play for singles (to use baseball terminology since
it is the playoffs), take the gain, and be patient as we wait for the
indices to make their definitive break.
It is also fall, so go out and enjoy some of the better weather that most
are experiencing. Washington DC people may do what they can to louse it up,
but why not the rest of us do what we can to keep it at least a nice place
to be by being neighborly, friendly, and helpful. Oh yes, and use what they
are doing in DC to make us money in the market!
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5213.33
Resistance:
The 50 day EMA at 5221
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5287.61 is the all-time high from September 2016
5340 is the recent all-time closing high.
Support:
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
The 200 day SMA at 4900
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
S&P 500: Closed at 2132.55
Resistance:
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
The 50 day SMA at 2165
2175 is the June 2016 high
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
The 200 day SMA at 2068
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 18,102.53
Resistance:
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,288 from March 2015
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
The 50 day SMA at 18,357
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
The 200 day SMA at 17,640
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
October 12 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 10/08 (7:00): -6.0% actual versus 2.9% prior
JOLTS - Job Openings, August (10:00): 5.443M actual versus 5.831M prior
(revised from 5.871M)
Crude Inventories, 10/08 (10:30): -2.976M prior
Crude Inventories, 10/08 (11:00): -2.976M prior
FOMC Minutes, September 21 (14:00)
October 13 - Thursday
Crude Inventories, 10/08 (12:00): -2.976M prior
Initial Claims, 10/08 (8:30): 246K actual versus 255K expected, 246K prior
(revised from 249K)
Continuing Claims, 10/01 (8:30): 2046K actual versus 2062K prior (revised
from 2058K)
Export Prices ex-ag., September (8:30): 0.4% actual versus -0.6% prior
(revised from -0.4%)
Import Prices ex-oil, September (8:30): 0.0% actual versus -0.1% prior
(revised from 0.0%)
Natural Gas Inventor, 10/08 (10:30): 79 bcf actual versus 80 bcf prior
Crude Inventories, 10/08 (11:00): 4.900M actual versus -2.976M prior
Treasury Budget, September (14:00): $90.9B prior
October 14 - Friday
PPI, September (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.0% prior
Core PPI, September (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Retail Sales, September (8:30): 0.6% expected, -0.3% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, September (8:30): 0.5% expected, -0.1% prior
Business Inventories, August (10:00): 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Mich Sentiment, October (10:00): 92.4 expected, 91.2 prior
End part 1 of 3
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The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 10-8-16
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10/8/2016 Investment House Daily
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
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If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
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MARKET SUMMARY
- Jobs show the same issues, stocks treat the report the same.
- Stocks hold up, sell, then recover to cut the losses.
- Same relative index positions though SP400 is struggling.
- Stretching the move laterally helps the upside as the harsh flop fades in
intensity, gives an opportunity to recover.
Friday was about jobs but jobs didn't really change a thing. Not surprising
because the jobs report didn't change a thing except perhaps showing a loss
of full-time jobs as part-time jobs spiked. Even that, however, is not
really a change as it simply continues the trend.
The stock indices held up after the jobs release. Then they sold. Then
they recovered much of the lost ground. We laughed, we cried, and in the
end we did little because there was nothing to do on the session. The
indices held their ground as the jobs report was a net nonevent, though
SP400 and RUTX were a bit wobbly even after the market overall recovered
lost ground.
SP500 -7.03, -0.33%
NASDAQ -14.45, -0.27%
DJ30 -28.01, -0.15%
SP400 -0.67%
RUTX -0.78%
SOX -0.19%
That was pretty much what we expected though I would have gladly welcomed a
change either upside or downside. As it is the stocks indices remained the
same with the trio SOX, NASDAQ and RUTX holding nice trends while DJ30,
SP400, and SP500 struggle to recover after breaking their near term trends
on that big Friday drop 5 Fridays back.
That said, the volatility immediately following that selloff has died down
to some intraday back and forth each session but not the dramatic session to
session swings. The longer it doesn't die, the less chance of it doing so,
i.e. the more chance DJ30 and company fall in line and maybe don't lead but
at least tag along behind the leaders.
Thus even though the Fed says it is going to raise rates and bonds and gold
have sold while the dollar strengthens in apparent agreement, stocks and
stock investors appear to be sanguine with it. Could it be that investors
have adopted the very moral hazard position the Fed did not want, i.e. while
the Fed may want to raise rates because its rather dubious hiking criteria
are met, it will be faster to panic and reverse a tightening course versus
let markets fall?
Sure seems that way, and if so, then yet another attempt to sell the market
may just fizzle out. Of course the market still has to show DJ30 and the
other laggards will turn back up from their near term bearish patterns.
Friday saw SP400 and RUTX struggle and they really did not recover much of
the lost ground. They definitely require watching early in the week to see
if the Friday struggles were just a Friday thing. Overall, the longer the
laggard indices stretch out the move without rolling over, the more a
continued trend higher becomes a possibility given NASDAQ and SOX are still
working their trends.
NEWS/ECONOMY
The jobs report was a miss, but the story was the same with low pay, hourly
jobs hugely dominating the report.
156K vs 176K exp vs 167K prior (from 151K August). July revised to 252K
from 275K
3 month average: 192K/mo
Unemployment: 5.0% vs 4.9% exp vs 4.9% prior
Earnings: 0.2% vs 0.2% exp vs 0.1% prior. +2.6% year/year. Thank goodness
for the increased minimum wage -- just before the companies go full robotic.
But hey, wages will rise then right? Just as with unemployment, if you
reduce the number earning lower wages from the equation, wages rise.
Perhaps that is already happening . . .
Workweek: 34.4 vs 34.4 exp vs 34.3. A 'surge' of 0.1. It moved up to this
level four months ago. Didn't take.
Participation rate: 62.9% versus 62.8%. More moved into the workforce. The
high was 63.0% in March. That didn't take either.
Number employed: +354K
Number unemployed: +90K
Not in labor force: -207K
Same sad story with the jobs mix:
Professional & business services: +67K (Secretaries and clerical staff
35k)
Healthcare: +33K
Bar tenders, waiters: +30K
Retail: +22K (+317K over 12 mos)
Mining: 0
Manufacturing: -13K
Transportation/Warehousing: -9K
Financial activities: +6K
Over half of the jobs created were minimum wage jobs.
Manufacturing: After a historically slow rise in manufacturing jobs in the
recovery, that sector has leveled out and in 2016 is rolling over. Indeed,
a shocking 58K manufacturing jobs have been lost in 2016, a year that
supposedly continues the recovery of the US economy. Apparently that
recovery is limited to part-time, low wage jobs.
Full time jobs versus part-time jobs.
Full-time: -5,000
Part-time: +430,000
Unadjusted, i.e. the ACTUAL job losses and gains without the BLS coming in
and 'smoothing out' the data with its subjective revisions (the "geez,
things CAN'T be THAT bad and we better fix it before the election" data
rewrites):
Full-time: -1.2M
Part-time: +1.3M
Multiple job holders (needed because of insufficient wages): +301K to
7.863M, highest since 2008.
Stay the course . . .
But all is well. Cleveland Fed President Mester on CNBC said it was a 'solid
labor market report' because it only takes '75K to 100K' jobs to maintain
employment. But the economy supposedly produced twice the 75K amount and
unemployment is still stagnant! Oh, that is because we are at 'FULL
EMPLOYMENT' according to Mester. Okay, sorry 94+M out of the workforce; you
are at your full employment level, your highest and best use achieved. Oh,
don't forget about those full-time workers who are working at half the pay
of their prior full time job. No problem there; you have a job so shut up,
right?
Odds of November rate hike: 15% versus 30% before the number. Odds in
reality: a snowball's chance in hell. Yellen would never, ever, ever hike
rates in November in an election year. Ever. Yes, even though Mester said
the Fed was populated by apolitical technocrats. Her nose grew 5 inches in
the interview.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
NASDAQ: Gapped modestly higher, sold through the 20 day EMA, but then
recovered to a more modest loss. All week moving in a tightening range over
the 20 day EMA. Waited on the jobs report, got it, could not do much with
it. NASDAQ remains in its uptrend but is moving laterally the past two
weeks, seeking that next upside break. Perhaps earnings will lend some help
one way or the other, perhaps in the form of a pre-earnings rally.
Definitely a market leading index important for the next upside break.
SOX: Chips edged out a slight gain on the week but really it was more of a
consolidation week as SOX worked laterally after the gap higher the prior
Friday. The 10 day EMA has caught up now and SOX is in very good position
to make the next break higher.
RUTX: Still trending higher after the 50 day EMA the first half of
September, but had to recover Friday to hold the 50 day SMA and salvage a
0.78% loss. Holding the trend higher but fighting it a bit.
SP400: Started well enough Friday with a gap higher but then fell through
the 50 day EMA and then closed below the 2016 up trendline off the January
low. SP400 is having trouble getting off that trendline, having tested it
on Tuesday, bounced, then flopped back on Friday. Midcaps are struggling to
hang on and small caps are having some issues of their own.
DJ30: The Dow looked like such a dog Tuesday and the Wednesday the prior
week, but it hung in and has worked laterally along the 50 day EMA for 1.5
weeks. That has kept it in check but it has not broken it lower. Still
overall bearish, but the pattern is tightening on the lateral move. Can
still break lower as the pattern is still bearish, but it is not for now.
Many of its components, however, still sport bearish patterns and if those
break of course DJ30 would be back under pressure.
SP500: Gapped higher to just below the 50 day SMA but then could not
advance and indeed closed just below the 50 day EMA. As with DJ30, also in
a lateral range the past 1.5 weeks, bouncing off the same intraday lows, but
looked heavier Friday than DJ30.
LEADERSHIP
Financial: Excellent week as financial stocks price in some possibility of
a rate hike at some point in the future. TCBI tested late week, bouncing
sharply off the 10 day EMA Friday. C, JPM continued higher, BAC still looks
solid. GS surged Wednesday and Friday.
Big Names: AAPL moved higher on the week, modest but steady. AMZN rallied
to more higher highs but started a modest late week fade. FB still working
laterally over the 20 day EMA. NFLX enjoyed a great week upside. GOOG
spent the entire week moving laterally along the 50 day SMA on the low.
MSFT working laterally all week. EBAY tested the 50 day MA's on the Friday
low. A bit wobbly last week.
Chips: SLAB moved higher on the week, new high. XLNX gave up the prior
week's break higher. AVGO bounced off the 50 day EMA. SWKS posted a higher
rally high with a strong move for the week. LSCC moved laterally all week
along the 10 day EMA. MRVL testing its move to a higher high the prior week.
Still a solid group. NPTN looks to be setting up for another upside run
while QRVO has done a good job of setting up for a break higher.
Industrial machinery: After a great move for over a week, starting a modest
test Friday, e.g. CMI, CAT.
Tech: Took a breather and tested late week but not bad, e.g. PANW, WDC, STX.
Oil: Some of the leaders are a bit winded and taking a breather, e.g. CWEI,
APC. Others are prepping for a move higher, e.g. NE, HOS.
Retail: Some excellent moves as department stores rallied: JWN, KSS, DDS.
Biotech: A group that was again attempting to show leadership but has some
issues again. ARNA is fine, AGEN is still trending up the 10 day EMA, CRMD
putting in a good test. Others not so great, e.g. IDRA, XLRN, CELG.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: -14.45 points (-0.27%) to close at 5292.4
Volume: 1.612B (-1.28%)
Up Volume: 584.94M (-126M)
Down Volume: 1.04B (+141.38M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.86 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.52 to 1
New Highs: 70 (-10)
New Lows: 50 (+16)
S&P
Stats: -7.03 points (-0.33%) to close at 2153.74
NYSE Volume: 900M (+10.78%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.27 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.24 to 1
New Highs: 79 (-29)
New Lows: 29 (-4)
DJ30
Stats: -28.01 points (-0.15%) to close at 18240.49
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 13.48; +0.64
VXN: 15.66; -0.04
VXO: 14.08; +0.58
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.18; +0.18
Seventeen 1.0+ Readings in 5 weeks, 13 of the last 21 sessions over 1.0.
Still plenty of pessimism.
Bulls and Bears: With the volatility subsiding, bulls continued to recover
and bears continued to fall.
Bulls: 46.7 versus 45.2
Bears: 22.8 versus 23.1
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 46.7 versus 45.2
45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2
versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1%
versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus
35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2 versus 40.2% versus 44.3% versus 47.4% versus
41.2% versus 45.4% versus 43.3% versus 47.4% versus 44.4% versus 39.4%
versus 36.4% versus 34.7% versus 26.5%
Bears: 2.28 versus 23.1
23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0
versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus
24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7%
versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7%
versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus
35.4% versus 34.3% versus 35.7% versus 39.8% versus 39.2% versus 38.1%
versus 35.4% versus 36.1%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 1.72% versus 1.74% versus. Big doji with tail Friday at
the early September low. May want to bounce off a double bottom attempt.
Historical: 1.74% versus 1.72% versus 1.69% versus 1.622% versus 1.60%
versus 1.56% versus 1.569% versus 1.56% versus 1.584% versus 1.62% versus
1.625% versus 1.656% versus 1.693% versus 1.705% versus 1.698% versus 1.70%
versus 1.698% versus 1.718% versus 1.671% versus 1.67% versus 1.61% versus
1.53% versus 1.54% versus 1.601% versus 1.57% versus 1.58% versus 1.57%
versus 1.57% versus 1.62% versus 1.58% versus 1.56% versus 1.54% versus
1.58% versus 1.53% versus 1.55% versus 1.57% versus 1.558% versus 1.51%
EUR/USD: 1.1183 versus 1.1147. Euro sold Wednesday, rebounded Thursday,
closed out Friday just below the 200 day SMA. That leaves euro still in a
lateral move.
Historical: 1.1147 versus 1.12052 versus 1.12091 versus 1.12066 versus
1.1239 versus 1.1218 versus 1.1228 versus 1.2148 versus 1.1254 versus 1.1248
versus 1.12259 versus 1.12061 versus 1.11898 versus 1.1151 versus 1.1177
versus 1.1155 versus 1.12444 versus 1.1245 versus 1.12196 versus 1.12335
versus 1.12318 versus 1.12661 versus 1.1239 versus 1.12554 versus 1.11545
versus 1.11943 versus 1.11572 versus 1.1146 versus 1.11708 versus 1.11949
versus 1.12894 versus 1.1300 versus 1.13045 versus 1.3254 versus 1.13251
versus 1.1342 versus 1.13036 versus 1.12773 versus 1.11824 versus 1.11636
versus 1.11372 versus 1.11803 versus 1.1115 versus 1.1080 versus 1.10882
USD/JPY: 103.159 versus 103.984. Dollar surged into October, faded
Thursday (hard), then a modest Friday bounce.
Historical: 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus 102.035 versus
101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55 versus 100.75 versus
101.034 versus 101.045 versus 100.386 versus 101.714 versus 101.956 versus
102.280 versus 102.086 versus 102.172 versus 102.155 versus 102.814 versus
101.57 versus 102.685 versus 102.439 versus 102.439 versus 101.698 versus
101.412 versus 103.92 versus 103.226 versus 103.269 versus 102.965 versus
102.160 versus 101.808 versus 100.485 versus 100.306 versus 100.27 versus
100.297 versus 100.21 versus 99.843
Oil: 49.81, -0.63. What a run last week and the week before, taking oil to
50+ and just below the June high at 51.50. Faded Friday but just taking a
breather from the look of it.
Gold: 1251.90, -1.10. Bombed lower Tuesday, sold below the 200 day SMA
Thursday, could not hold a bounce attempt Friday. Massive break lower
wholly suggesting rates go higher.
MONDAY
Jobs report is out and now the market looks to matters of real import,
earnings. The forecast is for a sixth straight quarter of declining
profits. Sure they can beat the expectations, but expectations keep getting
pushed lower and lower, kind of like second half GDP forecasts.
Be that as it may, the Fed is still there and has not hiked and won't hike
until December if then. A lot of time until December and the economy,
despite the headlines, is not ramping up, particularly based upon our
surveys with small businesses. Many saw things slow starting in July and
then really falling off in August and September. That does not sound like a
second half you are all excited to get to.
The indices are hanging in and perhaps the large cap NYSE looked better, at
least DJ30, to end the week. Still, there are some massive drops taking
place even as some sectors continue to rally and support great leaders.
HON, TSN, PPG all bombed lower Friday. Not all is well as evidenced by some
of these stocks, and we will know more this coming week as some warnings
could be coming even as earnings start rolling in.
Thus far the indices are hanging on, refusing to go ahead and break, e.g.
DJ30, SP500, SP400. With the stretch laterally we are looking at some
choice upside plays this week, but there are also some stocks that are
struggling and more than a few Dow stocks have the look of weakness, setting
up near term double tops and other bearish looks.
Still looking for the trends to merge, and if those weaker index patterns
don't break rather soon the odds of doing so drop considerably unless the
stronger indices start to falter. RUTX is not a bouquet of roses after its
Friday move, and both it and RUTX charts will be at the top of one of our
screens as we watch how they trade, if they can find buyers tou bounce them
back.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5292.40
Resistance:
5340 is the recent all-time closing high.
Support:
5287.61 is the all-time high from September 2016
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 5215
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
The 200 day SMA at 4896
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
S&P 500: Closed at 2153.74
Resistance:
The 50 day SMA at 2167
2175 is the June 2016 high
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
The 200 day SMA at 2067
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 18,240.49
Resistance:
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,288 from March 2015
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
The 50 day SMA at 18,373
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
The 200 day SMA at 17,629
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
October 7 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, September (8:30): 156K actual versus 176K expected, 167K
prior (revised from 151K)
Nonfarm Private Payr, September (8:30): 167K actual versus 171K expected,
144K prior (revised from 126K)
Unemployment Rate, September (8:30): 5.0% actual versus 4.9% expected, 4.9%
prior (no revisions)
Hourly Earnings, September (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.1%
prior (no revisions)
Average Workweek, September (8:30): 34.4 actual versus 34.4 expected, 34.3
prior (no revisions)
Wholesale Inventorie, August (10:00): -0.2% actual versus -0.1%
expected, -0.1% prior (revised from 0.0%)
Consumer Credit, August (15:00): $25.8B actual versus $18.0B expected,
$17.8B prior (revised from $17.7B)
October 12 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 10/08 (7:00): 2.9% prior
Crude Inventories, 10/08 (10:30): -2.976M prior
FOMC Minutes, September 21 (14:00)
October 13 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 10/08 (8:30): 255K expected, 249K prior
Continuing Claims, 10/01 (8:30): 2058K prior
Export Prices ex-ag., September (8:30): -0.4% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, September (8:30): 0.0% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 10/08 (10:30): 80 bcf prior
Treasury Budget, September (14:00): $90.9B prior
October 14 - Friday
PPI, September (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.0% prior
Core PPI, September (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Retail Sales, September (8:30): 0.6% expected, -0.3% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, September (8:30): 0.5% expected, -0.1% prior
Business Inventories, August (10:00): 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Mich Sentiment, October (10:00): 92.4 expected, 91.2 prior
End part 1 of 3
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
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MARKET SUMMARY
- Jobs show the same issues, stocks treat the report the same.
- Stocks hold up, sell, then recover to cut the losses.
- Same relative index positions though SP400 is struggling.
- Stretching the move laterally helps the upside as the harsh flop fades in
intensity, gives an opportunity to recover.
Friday was about jobs but jobs didn't really change a thing. Not surprising
because the jobs report didn't change a thing except perhaps showing a loss
of full-time jobs as part-time jobs spiked. Even that, however, is not
really a change as it simply continues the trend.
The stock indices held up after the jobs release. Then they sold. Then
they recovered much of the lost ground. We laughed, we cried, and in the
end we did little because there was nothing to do on the session. The
indices held their ground as the jobs report was a net nonevent, though
SP400 and RUTX were a bit wobbly even after the market overall recovered
lost ground.
SP500 -7.03, -0.33%
NASDAQ -14.45, -0.27%
DJ30 -28.01, -0.15%
SP400 -0.67%
RUTX -0.78%
SOX -0.19%
That was pretty much what we expected though I would have gladly welcomed a
change either upside or downside. As it is the stocks indices remained the
same with the trio SOX, NASDAQ and RUTX holding nice trends while DJ30,
SP400, and SP500 struggle to recover after breaking their near term trends
on that big Friday drop 5 Fridays back.
That said, the volatility immediately following that selloff has died down
to some intraday back and forth each session but not the dramatic session to
session swings. The longer it doesn't die, the less chance of it doing so,
i.e. the more chance DJ30 and company fall in line and maybe don't lead but
at least tag along behind the leaders.
Thus even though the Fed says it is going to raise rates and bonds and gold
have sold while the dollar strengthens in apparent agreement, stocks and
stock investors appear to be sanguine with it. Could it be that investors
have adopted the very moral hazard position the Fed did not want, i.e. while
the Fed may want to raise rates because its rather dubious hiking criteria
are met, it will be faster to panic and reverse a tightening course versus
let markets fall?
Sure seems that way, and if so, then yet another attempt to sell the market
may just fizzle out. Of course the market still has to show DJ30 and the
other laggards will turn back up from their near term bearish patterns.
Friday saw SP400 and RUTX struggle and they really did not recover much of
the lost ground. They definitely require watching early in the week to see
if the Friday struggles were just a Friday thing. Overall, the longer the
laggard indices stretch out the move without rolling over, the more a
continued trend higher becomes a possibility given NASDAQ and SOX are still
working their trends.
NEWS/ECONOMY
The jobs report was a miss, but the story was the same with low pay, hourly
jobs hugely dominating the report.
156K vs 176K exp vs 167K prior (from 151K August). July revised to 252K
from 275K
3 month average: 192K/mo
Unemployment: 5.0% vs 4.9% exp vs 4.9% prior
Earnings: 0.2% vs 0.2% exp vs 0.1% prior. +2.6% year/year. Thank goodness
for the increased minimum wage -- just before the companies go full robotic.
But hey, wages will rise then right? Just as with unemployment, if you
reduce the number earning lower wages from the equation, wages rise.
Perhaps that is already happening . . .
Workweek: 34.4 vs 34.4 exp vs 34.3. A 'surge' of 0.1. It moved up to this
level four months ago. Didn't take.
Participation rate: 62.9% versus 62.8%. More moved into the workforce. The
high was 63.0% in March. That didn't take either.
Number employed: +354K
Number unemployed: +90K
Not in labor force: -207K
Same sad story with the jobs mix:
Professional & business services: +67K (Secretaries and clerical staff
35k)
Healthcare: +33K
Bar tenders, waiters: +30K
Retail: +22K (+317K over 12 mos)
Mining: 0
Manufacturing: -13K
Transportation/Warehousing: -9K
Financial activities: +6K
Over half of the jobs created were minimum wage jobs.
Manufacturing: After a historically slow rise in manufacturing jobs in the
recovery, that sector has leveled out and in 2016 is rolling over. Indeed,
a shocking 58K manufacturing jobs have been lost in 2016, a year that
supposedly continues the recovery of the US economy. Apparently that
recovery is limited to part-time, low wage jobs.
Full time jobs versus part-time jobs.
Full-time: -5,000
Part-time: +430,000
Unadjusted, i.e. the ACTUAL job losses and gains without the BLS coming in
and 'smoothing out' the data with its subjective revisions (the "geez,
things CAN'T be THAT bad and we better fix it before the election" data
rewrites):
Full-time: -1.2M
Part-time: +1.3M
Multiple job holders (needed because of insufficient wages): +301K to
7.863M, highest since 2008.
Stay the course . . .
But all is well. Cleveland Fed President Mester on CNBC said it was a 'solid
labor market report' because it only takes '75K to 100K' jobs to maintain
employment. But the economy supposedly produced twice the 75K amount and
unemployment is still stagnant! Oh, that is because we are at 'FULL
EMPLOYMENT' according to Mester. Okay, sorry 94+M out of the workforce; you
are at your full employment level, your highest and best use achieved. Oh,
don't forget about those full-time workers who are working at half the pay
of their prior full time job. No problem there; you have a job so shut up,
right?
Odds of November rate hike: 15% versus 30% before the number. Odds in
reality: a snowball's chance in hell. Yellen would never, ever, ever hike
rates in November in an election year. Ever. Yes, even though Mester said
the Fed was populated by apolitical technocrats. Her nose grew 5 inches in
the interview.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
NASDAQ: Gapped modestly higher, sold through the 20 day EMA, but then
recovered to a more modest loss. All week moving in a tightening range over
the 20 day EMA. Waited on the jobs report, got it, could not do much with
it. NASDAQ remains in its uptrend but is moving laterally the past two
weeks, seeking that next upside break. Perhaps earnings will lend some help
one way or the other, perhaps in the form of a pre-earnings rally.
Definitely a market leading index important for the next upside break.
SOX: Chips edged out a slight gain on the week but really it was more of a
consolidation week as SOX worked laterally after the gap higher the prior
Friday. The 10 day EMA has caught up now and SOX is in very good position
to make the next break higher.
RUTX: Still trending higher after the 50 day EMA the first half of
September, but had to recover Friday to hold the 50 day SMA and salvage a
0.78% loss. Holding the trend higher but fighting it a bit.
SP400: Started well enough Friday with a gap higher but then fell through
the 50 day EMA and then closed below the 2016 up trendline off the January
low. SP400 is having trouble getting off that trendline, having tested it
on Tuesday, bounced, then flopped back on Friday. Midcaps are struggling to
hang on and small caps are having some issues of their own.
DJ30: The Dow looked like such a dog Tuesday and the Wednesday the prior
week, but it hung in and has worked laterally along the 50 day EMA for 1.5
weeks. That has kept it in check but it has not broken it lower. Still
overall bearish, but the pattern is tightening on the lateral move. Can
still break lower as the pattern is still bearish, but it is not for now.
Many of its components, however, still sport bearish patterns and if those
break of course DJ30 would be back under pressure.
SP500: Gapped higher to just below the 50 day SMA but then could not
advance and indeed closed just below the 50 day EMA. As with DJ30, also in
a lateral range the past 1.5 weeks, bouncing off the same intraday lows, but
looked heavier Friday than DJ30.
LEADERSHIP
Financial: Excellent week as financial stocks price in some possibility of
a rate hike at some point in the future. TCBI tested late week, bouncing
sharply off the 10 day EMA Friday. C, JPM continued higher, BAC still looks
solid. GS surged Wednesday and Friday.
Big Names: AAPL moved higher on the week, modest but steady. AMZN rallied
to more higher highs but started a modest late week fade. FB still working
laterally over the 20 day EMA. NFLX enjoyed a great week upside. GOOG
spent the entire week moving laterally along the 50 day SMA on the low.
MSFT working laterally all week. EBAY tested the 50 day MA's on the Friday
low. A bit wobbly last week.
Chips: SLAB moved higher on the week, new high. XLNX gave up the prior
week's break higher. AVGO bounced off the 50 day EMA. SWKS posted a higher
rally high with a strong move for the week. LSCC moved laterally all week
along the 10 day EMA. MRVL testing its move to a higher high the prior week.
Still a solid group. NPTN looks to be setting up for another upside run
while QRVO has done a good job of setting up for a break higher.
Industrial machinery: After a great move for over a week, starting a modest
test Friday, e.g. CMI, CAT.
Tech: Took a breather and tested late week but not bad, e.g. PANW, WDC, STX.
Oil: Some of the leaders are a bit winded and taking a breather, e.g. CWEI,
APC. Others are prepping for a move higher, e.g. NE, HOS.
Retail: Some excellent moves as department stores rallied: JWN, KSS, DDS.
Biotech: A group that was again attempting to show leadership but has some
issues again. ARNA is fine, AGEN is still trending up the 10 day EMA, CRMD
putting in a good test. Others not so great, e.g. IDRA, XLRN, CELG.
MARKET STATS
NASDAQ
Stats: -14.45 points (-0.27%) to close at 5292.4
Volume: 1.612B (-1.28%)
Up Volume: 584.94M (-126M)
Down Volume: 1.04B (+141.38M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.86 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.52 to 1
New Highs: 70 (-10)
New Lows: 50 (+16)
S&P
Stats: -7.03 points (-0.33%) to close at 2153.74
NYSE Volume: 900M (+10.78%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 2.27 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.24 to 1
New Highs: 79 (-29)
New Lows: 29 (-4)
DJ30
Stats: -28.01 points (-0.15%) to close at 18240.49
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 13.48; +0.64
VXN: 15.66; -0.04
VXO: 14.08; +0.58
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 1.18; +0.18
Seventeen 1.0+ Readings in 5 weeks, 13 of the last 21 sessions over 1.0.
Still plenty of pessimism.
Bulls and Bears: With the volatility subsiding, bulls continued to recover
and bears continued to fall.
Bulls: 46.7 versus 45.2
Bears: 22.8 versus 23.1
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 46.7 versus 45.2
45.2 versus 44.6 versus 49.0 versus 52.5 versus 55.9 versus 56.7 versus 56.2
versus 54.3 versus 52.9% versus 53.9% versus 54.4% versus 52.5% versus 47.1%
versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus
35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2 versus 40.2% versus 44.3% versus 47.4% versus
41.2% versus 45.4% versus 43.3% versus 47.4% versus 44.4% versus 39.4%
versus 36.4% versus 34.7% versus 26.5%
Bears: 2.28 versus 23.1
23.1 versus 24.3 versus 22.6 versus 22.8 versus 20.6 Versus 20.2 versus 20.0
versus 20.9% versus 21.2% versus 21.6% versus 23.3% versus 24.7% versus
24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7%
versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7%
versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus
35.4% versus 34.3% versus 35.7% versus 39.8% versus 39.2% versus 38.1%
versus 35.4% versus 36.1%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 1.72% versus 1.74% versus. Big doji with tail Friday at
the early September low. May want to bounce off a double bottom attempt.
Historical: 1.74% versus 1.72% versus 1.69% versus 1.622% versus 1.60%
versus 1.56% versus 1.569% versus 1.56% versus 1.584% versus 1.62% versus
1.625% versus 1.656% versus 1.693% versus 1.705% versus 1.698% versus 1.70%
versus 1.698% versus 1.718% versus 1.671% versus 1.67% versus 1.61% versus
1.53% versus 1.54% versus 1.601% versus 1.57% versus 1.58% versus 1.57%
versus 1.57% versus 1.62% versus 1.58% versus 1.56% versus 1.54% versus
1.58% versus 1.53% versus 1.55% versus 1.57% versus 1.558% versus 1.51%
EUR/USD: 1.1183 versus 1.1147. Euro sold Wednesday, rebounded Thursday,
closed out Friday just below the 200 day SMA. That leaves euro still in a
lateral move.
Historical: 1.1147 versus 1.12052 versus 1.12091 versus 1.12066 versus
1.1239 versus 1.1218 versus 1.1228 versus 1.2148 versus 1.1254 versus 1.1248
versus 1.12259 versus 1.12061 versus 1.11898 versus 1.1151 versus 1.1177
versus 1.1155 versus 1.12444 versus 1.1245 versus 1.12196 versus 1.12335
versus 1.12318 versus 1.12661 versus 1.1239 versus 1.12554 versus 1.11545
versus 1.11943 versus 1.11572 versus 1.1146 versus 1.11708 versus 1.11949
versus 1.12894 versus 1.1300 versus 1.13045 versus 1.3254 versus 1.13251
versus 1.1342 versus 1.13036 versus 1.12773 versus 1.11824 versus 1.11636
versus 1.11372 versus 1.11803 versus 1.1115 versus 1.1080 versus 1.10882
USD/JPY: 103.159 versus 103.984. Dollar surged into October, faded
Thursday (hard), then a modest Friday bounce.
Historical: 103.984 versus 103.381 versus 102.807 versus 102.035 versus
101.326 versus 101.143 versus 101.322 versus 100.55 versus 100.75 versus
101.034 versus 101.045 versus 100.386 versus 101.714 versus 101.956 versus
102.280 versus 102.086 versus 102.172 versus 102.155 versus 102.814 versus
101.57 versus 102.685 versus 102.439 versus 102.439 versus 101.698 versus
101.412 versus 103.92 versus 103.226 versus 103.269 versus 102.965 versus
102.160 versus 101.808 versus 100.485 versus 100.306 versus 100.27 versus
100.297 versus 100.21 versus 99.843
Oil: 49.81, -0.63. What a run last week and the week before, taking oil to
50+ and just below the June high at 51.50. Faded Friday but just taking a
breather from the look of it.
Gold: 1251.90, -1.10. Bombed lower Tuesday, sold below the 200 day SMA
Thursday, could not hold a bounce attempt Friday. Massive break lower
wholly suggesting rates go higher.
MONDAY
Jobs report is out and now the market looks to matters of real import,
earnings. The forecast is for a sixth straight quarter of declining
profits. Sure they can beat the expectations, but expectations keep getting
pushed lower and lower, kind of like second half GDP forecasts.
Be that as it may, the Fed is still there and has not hiked and won't hike
until December if then. A lot of time until December and the economy,
despite the headlines, is not ramping up, particularly based upon our
surveys with small businesses. Many saw things slow starting in July and
then really falling off in August and September. That does not sound like a
second half you are all excited to get to.
The indices are hanging in and perhaps the large cap NYSE looked better, at
least DJ30, to end the week. Still, there are some massive drops taking
place even as some sectors continue to rally and support great leaders.
HON, TSN, PPG all bombed lower Friday. Not all is well as evidenced by some
of these stocks, and we will know more this coming week as some warnings
could be coming even as earnings start rolling in.
Thus far the indices are hanging on, refusing to go ahead and break, e.g.
DJ30, SP500, SP400. With the stretch laterally we are looking at some
choice upside plays this week, but there are also some stocks that are
struggling and more than a few Dow stocks have the look of weakness, setting
up near term double tops and other bearish looks.
Still looking for the trends to merge, and if those weaker index patterns
don't break rather soon the odds of doing so drop considerably unless the
stronger indices start to falter. RUTX is not a bouquet of roses after its
Friday move, and both it and RUTX charts will be at the top of one of our
screens as we watch how they trade, if they can find buyers tou bounce them
back.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 5292.40
Resistance:
5340 is the recent all-time closing high.
Support:
5287.61 is the all-time high from September 2016
5271.36 is the August 2016 intraday prior all-time high
5231.94 is the 2015 all-time high
The 50 day EMA at 5215
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5042 is the March 2015 high
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
The 200 day SMA at 4896
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4836 is the March 2016 peak
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
S&P 500: Closed at 2153.74
Resistance:
The 50 day SMA at 2167
2175 is the June 2016 high
2194 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
The 200 day SMA at 2067
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
Dow: Closed at 18,240.49
Resistance:
18,247 is the August 2016 low
18,262 is the upper gap point from the Monday gap lower.
18,288 from March 2015
18,351 is the prior all-time high from May 2015
The 50 day SMA at 18,373
18,595 is the July 2016 peak
18,669 is the August 2016 all-time high
Support:
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
The 200 day SMA at 17,629
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
October 7 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, September (8:30): 156K actual versus 176K expected, 167K
prior (revised from 151K)
Nonfarm Private Payr, September (8:30): 167K actual versus 171K expected,
144K prior (revised from 126K)
Unemployment Rate, September (8:30): 5.0% actual versus 4.9% expected, 4.9%
prior (no revisions)
Hourly Earnings, September (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.1%
prior (no revisions)
Average Workweek, September (8:30): 34.4 actual versus 34.4 expected, 34.3
prior (no revisions)
Wholesale Inventorie, August (10:00): -0.2% actual versus -0.1%
expected, -0.1% prior (revised from 0.0%)
Consumer Credit, August (15:00): $25.8B actual versus $18.0B expected,
$17.8B prior (revised from $17.7B)
October 12 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 10/08 (7:00): 2.9% prior
Crude Inventories, 10/08 (10:30): -2.976M prior
FOMC Minutes, September 21 (14:00)
October 13 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 10/08 (8:30): 255K expected, 249K prior
Continuing Claims, 10/01 (8:30): 2058K prior
Export Prices ex-ag., September (8:30): -0.4% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, September (8:30): 0.0% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 10/08 (10:30): 80 bcf prior
Treasury Budget, September (14:00): $90.9B prior
October 14 - Friday
PPI, September (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.0% prior
Core PPI, September (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Retail Sales, September (8:30): 0.6% expected, -0.3% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, September (8:30): 0.5% expected, -0.1% prior
Business Inventories, August (10:00): 0.1% expected, 0.0% prior
Mich Sentiment, October (10:00): 92.4 expected, 91.2 prior
End part 1 of 3
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