* * * *
7/9/2016 Investment House Daily
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The Market Video is DIVIDED into component parts: Market Overview, Economy,
Technical Summary, and the Next Session. Choose the segments you are
interested in without having to search a longer video. Click on the link to
the portion you wish to view.
TO VIEW THE MARKET OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/mo/mo.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEWS/ECONOMY OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/eco/eco.mp4
TO VIEW THE TECHNICAL SUMMARY VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/ts/ts.mp4
TO VIEW THE NEXT SESSION VIDEO CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
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The REPORT SCHEDULE is as follows:
Market Summary Video, Plays and Play Videos, and Play Tables with play
annotations will issue Monday, Wednesday and the Weekend.
Tuesday and Thursday reports will contain the market summary, chart links to
view the index charts, and updated play tables.
Access to all current videos will remain assessable each day using the play
links in the reports.
If any market circumstances arise where we see additional plays we want to
prepare for the next session, we will of course issue those plays regardless
of the day of the week.
MARKET SUMMARY
- June jobs report beats by as much as May missed, stocks launch.
- SP500 flirting with the all-time high.
- 'Whopping' jobs report is not so whopping historically, and it is also
more of the same in terms of underwhelming internals.
- SOX, DJ30 longer term patterns trying to make a silk purse out of the 21
month rounded top
I styled Thursday as a pre-Jobs Report holding pattern. A better
description should have been a session on the launch pad waiting for the go
ahead to launch. The Friday Jobs Report provided the go ahead for launch as
non-farm payrolls added 287K, over 100K more than expected and wiping away
the May revised 11K. We won't go into the details -- yet -- because the
market didn't go into details. Massive miss, massive beat, Fed on hold,
other central banks easing, time to rally.
SP500 32.00, 1.53%
NASDAQ 79.95, 1.64%
DJ30 250.86, 1.40%
SP400 1.86%
RUTX 2.40%
SOX 2.82%
VOLUME: NYSE +3%, NASDAQ +16%. NYSE trade higher but still below average.
NASDAQ trade back up to average. Stronger volume is better on the upside if
you are looking for a more sustainable move, though volumes were not blowout
great.
A/D: NYSE 7.4:1, NASDAQ 4.8:1. Impressive breadth as all areas of the
market jumped and of course the small cap lead in percentage gain, by a wide
margin sans SOX, shows the strength of the overall market on the session.
RUTX and SOX posted the strongest percentage gains, but I suppose the
session's highlight was SP500's flirtation with its all-time high. SP500
gapped higher, stormed through the June 2016 and November 2015 highs, and on
its high traded past the May 2015 closing high (2132.82). Couldn't hold
that move, but at this point that may just be semantics: SP500 not only put
in a Brelief move from Brexit, it avoided a Brollover and is trying to put
in a Brew High. With RUTX and SOX putting in strong performances as well,
the market was only heading higher.
The question is always can it hold. Long rounded top/range, several sharp
selloffs, questionable economics despite some recent reports. Yet, the
market comes back, and it comes back thanks to the willingness of central
banks to avoid any kind of possible upset. They were taken aback by the
viciousness of the January to February selling and that had Janet Yellen on
the phone with the BOE head when the indices were hitting lower lows. That
day, starting about 20 minutes after her appointment book showed the
telephone conversation ended, the stock indices reversed off the lows. The
next day she was on the phone with Mario Draghi, and about a half hour after
their conversation, voila, European and US markets jumped higher again. A
miracle.
This last episode it did not even take a selloff, just the threat of a
selloff as a result of a political vote. Get the plunge protection gear out
and start hosing down the market to prevent any fires breaking out. The
markets didn't even get started lower in terms of a percentage move when the
BOE was out with stimulus and promising more, the ECB saying there was no
limit to what it could buy (other than just not being enough assets for it
to purchase), the IMF demanding central banks step in to prevent what would
surely be the end of the world.
Again: it did not even take a serious drop to get the central banks in the
market yet again, protecting them from the foolishness of the proletariat
that had the nerve to vote to wrest back some control over their lives.
With that background, yes Virginia, there likely really are new highs
coming. Better data, compliant central banks. It just doesn't get better
than that.
NEWS/ECONOMY
TO VIEW THE NEWS/ECONOMY OVERVIEW CLICK THE FOLLOWING LINK:
Flash: http://investmenthouse1.com/ihmedia/f/eco/eco.mp4
So what was all the excitement over? After a May jobs report that missed by
5 standard deviations downside, a June report that beat by 5 standard
deviations upside. Nothing like pinpoint accuracy from our leading
economists who are, as it is turning out, about as accurate as weathermen,
whether trying to predict the next rain storm or the climate in the future.
Of course you cannot lay all of the blame at their feet. You have a BLS
full of professionals whose job is to compile this data accurately and
without any consideration of the political consequences. Thus just before
the 2012 election the jobs numbers steadily improved to the magic numbers,
defying all measures of the economy. Shockingly (?) it was later confirmed
that some of the BLS professionals had fudged the data. Oh you fun-loving
federal employee rascals. We need to watch you guys.
The upshot: you got a May report that had everyone worried about the economy
but rejoicing the Fed was on hold. In June you get a report that has
everyone initially joyous but likely to start worrying the Fed is not on
hold. Indeed, the pundits and the futures contracts are now giving
September a shot at a rate hike, though bond rates, gold, and just about
everything else does not appear to be nearly convinced.
Think about it. The jobs market is so solid, yet businesses are not
investing at all in capital equipment or anything else. As David Rosenberg
put it: "It makes little or no sense that the business sector would be so
cautious over committing capital to the real economy and at the same time
embark on a sustained hiring spree."
Jobs Report
Non-farm jobs, June: 287K vs 175K exp vs 11K prior (from 38K)
3 month average: 147K/month
Unemployment: 4.9% vs 4.8% exp vs 4.7% prior
Average Hourly earnings: 0.1% vs 0.2% exp vs 0.2% prior.
Year/year 2.6% vs 2.7% expected as jobs mix remains tilted toward lower pay,
hourly.
Workweek: 34.4 vs 34.4 exp vs 34.4 prior. Just cannot get the workweek
rising.
The Non-Farms portion of the Jobs Report was termed 'whopping' just about
anywhere you looked. While it was indeed much larger than the 11K from May,
sub-300K is historically not whopping for the US economy, at least if you
look earlier than the last 15 years.
As I have written many times, the years of mediocre, substandard growth
levels have dumbed down our historical perception of what is strong and what
is mediocre for the US economy. I wrote over 5 years ago this would be the
case and it is exactly what has happened.
Thus we get 'wowed' by data that in the 1980's and 1990's would have been on
the low end. In September 1983 1.1M jobs were created. The following 10
months averaged 354K per month. And these were GREAT jobs. Tech companies
were birthed, companies invested massive amounts in plants, equipment, and
people. These were full-time, high quality, breadwinner jobs, the kind we
mostly dream about right now.
Household Survey: Something of the counterbalance to the Non-Farms
'establishment' survey. It is said by economists, that in turns in the jobs
market the household survey is the more accurate forecast. If that is the
case, then the prognosis is not great. Indeed, even with the June non-farms
number, the overall trend in jobs is not up but is still lower. Throw out
May and June, both apparent outliers, and you still have jobs trending
lower.
Household Survey: +347K unemployed versus +37K employed.
Long-term unemployed: +211K
Unemployed: rose to 7.783M
Participation rate: 62.7% vs 62.6%. 191K moved into the workforce though
those out of the workforce remains just over 94M.
Participation still at 30+ year lows. Much rejoicing. Yea.
Jobs gains dominate in the lower pay areas again: According to the Non-Farm
establishment Survey:
Leisure & Hospitality: 59K
Health: 58K
Information 44K (Verizon strike over)
Professional & Business services: 38K
Retail: 30K
Manufacturing: +14K (a miracle! What an economy!)
Jobs losses:
Mining: -6K
Age Breakdown:
Age 55 - 69: +259K
Age 25 - 54: +28K
Age 20 - 24: -67K
Age 16 - 19: -40K
Thus, 90% of jobs in the household survey went to the 55+ group, the norm in
this entire recovery.
Indeed, if you go back to when the recession started in December 2007:
Age 55+: +8.2M jobs
All other age groups: -3.4M jobs, still underwater, from the peak. Jobs
have been created, but they had more jobs well into 2008 than they have now.
Another report, heralded as a 'whopper,' but historically it is average at
best.
THE MARKET
CHARTS
The big top still remains, but the indices are trying to turn it into
something upside, thanks to the power of central banks.
SOX: All over the map is an accurate description of SOX the past two weeks,
from a breakout the day of Brexit voting to a plunge to the 200 day SMA to a
Brelief move that still has about 15 points to match the Prexit high. Good
recovery, still work to do. On a grander picture, one from 2012, SOX has
put in a double bottom at the 50% Fibonacci retracement, with lows in August
2015 and January/February 2016. It formed a handle and broke higher in late
May, and during Brexit it tested that breakout. Now it is bouncing. With
this analysis, and with the central banks willing to help, SOX would have a
target at 750. Not a bad prognosis, another 7%.
SP500: Gapped and rallied through the June high and the November/December
2015 range. As noted earlier, toyed with the summer 2015 all-time highs,
closed below them, but showing plenty of momentum.
DJ30: Same type of pattern as SOX, i.e. a strong rally from 2012 to early
2015, the big selloffs in 2015 and early 2016 after the mid-2015 all-time
high, the recovery, the three month lateral move forming a handle. A double
bottom with handle formed at the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the 2012 to
2015 run. Now DJ30 is approaching the prior high in 2015, and as it was a
38% retracement, typically it should move through that level and put in
higher highs.
NASDAQ: The 'tech heavy' index does not sport as convincing a pattern as
DJ30 or SOX. Broke to a lower low on the Brexit selling, selling that was
already underway. Friday recovered back to the April/June highs, or
actually just under them, and now has to show it can continue the move. If
DJ30, SP500 lead, NASDAQ likely follows.
RUTX: Over the past 5 weeks RUTX has formed, thanks to the Friday surge, a
short inverted head and shoulders. That is trying to act as the right
shoulder to a larger 10 month inverted head and shoulders formed in the
selloff from the June 2015 high. That suggests there is room upside.
SP400: Almost fully recovered from Brexit, indeed surpassing the late June
high and now working on the June high. That is the last peak before the
mid-2015 range housing the all-time high. Somewhat similar to RUTX with the
inverted head and shoulders, though a bit skewed to the upside for the right
shoulder. Looks as if it wants to make a run at that old high at 1551
(closed at 1520).
LEADERSHIP
Pretty much everything was moving higher, but leadership is about stocks in
good patterns moving higher, stocks moving to new highs -- that sort of
thing. Thus while many stocks were up, not all are leaders. There are
quite a few areas with good patterns that are moving well, however.
Oil: Oil is not necessarily one of them. Not bad, and perhaps just needs
to take a break after leading the market during a choppy time. PTEN is not
bad with a nice base in the bigger picture. APC continues its recovery off
its January low, putting in a new recovery high on the week. CWEI keeps
working on its attempt at the 200 day SMA. HAL and SLB are in solid larger
bases but have more work to do. NBL, SWN, SPN, COG and others are all trying
to hold on and set up for a new move higher.
Industrials: HON broke to a higher high Friday. MMM at a higher high. UTX
breaking higher from an 8 week consolidation. CAT, CMI trying to break
upside.
Biotech/Drugs: BLUE enjoyed a good week upside. OPHT broke higher Friday,
continuing its move off the 50 day EMA.
Chips: Big surge Friday as SOX tries to fix its pattern. KOPN jumped
higher Friday. AVGO is breaking higher off the bottom of its uptrending
channel. AMKR looks interesting. ARMH is trying to make a new break
higher. LRCX is trying to break from a 19 month base. EXAR is working in a
big double bottom with handle.
Financial: Stormy week, still not great patterns given the central bank
action, but with stronger jobs reports and stronger services PMI, financial
stocks may try to build in some possible rate hike upside. GS has a double
bottom trying to shape up, but MS is still mushy, JPM is up but at the 200
day SMA. BAC is still struggling below the 20 day EMA.
Retail: AMZN at a new high on the week. WWW shot higher Thursday and
Friday, making us some good money. Department stores are still working on
their patterns, e.g. JWN, M, DDS; broke higher Friday and showing some
promise.
Software: Making some moves, e.g. ROVI, CALD, CYBR.
Metals: Not just precious metals started looking better. CENX looks ready
to make the next move higher. AKS is improving. SID is still looking
solid. SCHN rallied nicely on the week. FCX is working laterally in a
rather tight 9 week trading range.
MARKET STATISTICS
NASDAQ
Stats: +79.95 points (+1.64%) to close at 4956.76
Volume: 1.97B (+15.88%)
Up Volume: 1.67B (+560M)
Down Volume: 252.13M (-251.93M)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 4.75 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.34 to 1
New Highs: 159 (+71)
New Lows: 25 (-7)
S&P
Stats: +32 points (+1.53%) to close at 2129.9
NYSE Volume: 906M (+3.14%)
A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 7.43 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.18 to 1
New Highs: 267 (+134)
New Lows: 12 (-10)
DJ30
Stats: +250.86 points (+1.4%) to close at 18146.74
SENTIMENT INDICATORS
VIX: 13.2; -1.56
VXN: 15.74; -1.54
VXO: 12.35; -1.84
Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.73; -0.13. Wow, 2 straight readings below 1.0.
14 of 18 over 1.0.
14 of the last 30 below 1.0. 34 of 50 over 1.0. Overall still some very
nervous action.
Bulls and Bears: Massive drop in bulls, but of course that was immediately
countered by the recovery, so this reading is all in flux right now.
Bulls: 47.1 versus 41.6. Right back up, from Brexit to Brelief.
Bears: 24.5 versus 23.8. Unlike bulls, bears are not buying it.
Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.
Bulls: 47.1%
41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4% versus 35.4%
versus 40.2 versus 39.2 versus 40.2% versus 44.3% versus 47.4% versus 41.2%
versus 45.4% versus 43.3% versus 47.4% versus 44.4% versus 39.4% versus
36.4% versus 34.7% versus 26.5% versus 24.7% 34.0% versus 29.2% versus 26.8%
versus 28.6% versus 34.7% versus 36.7% versus 37.8% versus 44.9% versus
41.2% versus 45.4%
Bears: 24.5%
23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7% versus 24.0%
versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7% versus 27.8%
versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus 35.4% versus
34.3% versus 35.7% versus 39.8% versus 39.2% versus 38.1% versus 35.4%
versus 36.1% versus 35.7% versus 31.6% versus 29.6%
OTHER MARKETS
Bonds (10 year): 1.36% versus 1.39%. After the jobs report, the 10 year
yield rose to 1.43%. By the close, however, even with large index gains,
bonds rallied back and dropped the yield. Despite 'better' data that should
reduce the risk in the economy and the improve the odds of a Fed rate hike,
bonds are rallying.
Historical: 1.39% versus 1.373% versus 1.367% versus 1.44% versus 1.475%
versus 1.51% versus 1.468% versus 1.46% versus 1.57% versus 1.74% versus
1.68% versus 1.70% versus 1.67% versus 1.61% versus 1.57% versus 1.58%
versus 1.62% versus 1.61% versus 1.64% versus 1.68% versus 1.70% versus
1.72% versus 1.73% versus 1.70% versus 1.80% versus 1.84% versus 1.85%
EUR/USD: 1.10502 versus 1.10634. Overall the euro was down on the week,
closing in the range formed after the Brexit dump lower.
Historical: 1.10634 versus 1.10891 versus 1.1056 versus 1.11396 versus
1.1106 versus 1.11256 versus 1.10736 versus 1.10226 versus 1.1101 versus
1.14070 versus 1.13324 versus 1.1251 versus 1.13131 versus 1.13749 versus
1.12778 versus 1.12554 versus 1.12731 versus 1.2104 versus 1.1297 versus
1.12526 versus 1.13149 versus 1.1412 versus 1.13570
USD/JPY: 100.59 versus 100.768. Doji near the June low, keeping the
possibility of a double bottom bounce for the dollar in place.
Historical: 100.768 versus 101.15 versus 100.89 versus 102.497 versus
103.128 versus 102.912 versus 102.60 versus 101.93 versus 102.32 versus
106.73 versus 104.87 versus 104.788 versus 103.98 versus 104.58 versus
104.12 versus 104.68 versus 105.62 versus 106.085 versus 106.019 versus
106.933 versus 106.966 versus 106.66 versus 107.347 versus 107.72 versus
106.55 versus 106.66 versus 108.86 versus 109.99 versus 111.285
Oil: 45.12, -0.07. Tough week, down Tuesday and Thursday, moving below the
50 day MA's hard to a lower low, undercutting the three week range. Doji
Friday but oil is struggling.
Gold: 1367.40, +5.60. Big week and was up Friday even with the jobs data.
Sold off for sure, but held near the 10 day EMA and roared back to a gain.
Gold is not buying any increased rate hike odds.
MONDAY
Perhaps there will be some give back to start next week after such a strong
move to close out the post-Brexit, but the momentum is strong and it appears
the market is hell bent on making new highs for SP500 and DJ30 in rather
short order. With SOX and RUTX trying to take the lead again with their
strong percentage gains, the move has backing. If it continues of course
the move is to continue picking up great patterns to the upside.
Sure the Fed continues playing a roll: will she or won't she raise rates and
when will that occur? Then there is Brexit. Will the powers that be decide
the people are fools and don't know what is good for them, rolling it back?
Not unprecedented in this world we now live in.
Don't want to over think it. Sure the market can still top out with the
massive post-QE rounded top, but the indices, as pointed out in the charts,
are trying their best to set up a new upside move, central bank aided, of
course. As long as good patterns set up and break higher, it behooves us to
be in. Great analysis, huh? Again, don't over think it.
Have a great weekend!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
NASDAQ: Closed at 4956.76
Resistance:
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
NASDAQ.
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4999 is the October upper gap point
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5042 is the March 2015 high
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak
Support:
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
4836 is the March 2016 peak
The 50 day SMA at 4827
The 200 day SMA at 4818
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
4471 is the January 2016 closing low
4425 is the late February intraday low
4363 is the February upper gap point
4352 is the March 2014 peak
4313 is the January 2016 intraday low
4292 is the August 2015 low
4212 is the February intraday low
S&P 500: Closed at 2129.90
Resistance:
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
Support:
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
The 50 day EMA at 2076
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
2026 is the May 2016 low
The 200 day SMA at 2026
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
1972 is the December 2014 low
1947 is the February 2016 intraday high, the late February peak
1940 is the January 2016 recovery bounce peak closing high
1913 is the early September 2015 closing low testing the bounce from the
August selling
1905 is the August 2014 low
1902 from early May was the intraday all-time high.
1897 is the prior all-time high hit in April 2014
1891 is last week's intraday low prior to the miraculous reversal.
1872 is the September 2015 test low of the August low
1867 is the August 2015 low
Dow: Closed at 18,147.40
Resistance:
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,288 from March 2015
18,351 is the all-time high from May 2015
Support:
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
The 50 day EMA at 17,731
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
The 200 day SMA at 17,293
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
16,740 is the mid-September peak and potential apex for a right shoulder to
a head and shoulders pattern
16,736 is a prior all-time high from May 2014
16,670 is the December 2014 peak and the recent August 2015 relief bounce
peak.
16,665 is the late August 2015 closing high
16,632 is the April 2014 peak
16,621 is the late February 2016 peak
16,589 is the December 2013 former all-time high
16,526 is the early January resistance
16,511 is the January 2016 intraday high
16,506 is the March 2014 peak
16,466 is the January 2016 recovery closing peak.
16,368 is the August 2014 low
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
July 8 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, June (8:30): 287K actual versus 175K expected, 11K prior
(revised from 38K)
Nonfarm Private Payr, June (8:30): 265K actual versus 170K expected, -6K
prior (revised from 25K)
Unemployment Rate, June (8:30): 4.9% actual versus 4.8% expected, 4.7% prior
Hourly Earnings, June (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Average Workweek, June (8:30): 34.4 actual versus 34.4 expected, 34.4 prior
Consumer Credit, May (15:00): $18.6B actual versus $15.3B expected, $13.4B
prior
July 12 - Tuesday
Wholesale Inventories, May (10:00): 0.2% expected, 0.6% prior
July 13 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 07/09 (7:00)
Export Prices ex-ag., June (8:30): 1.0% prior
Import Prices ex-oil, June (8:30): 0.3% prior
Crude Inventories, 07/09 (10:30)
Treasury Budget, June (14:00): $50.5B prior
July 14 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 07/09 (8:30): 265K expected, 254K prior
Continuing Claims, 07/02 (8:30): 2124K prior
PPI, June (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.4% prior
Core PPI, June (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.3% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 07/09 (10:30)
July 15 - Friday
Empire Manufacturing, July (8:30): 5.0 expected, 6.0 prior
Retail Sales, June (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.5% prior
Retail Sales ex-auto, June (8:30): 0.4% expected, 0.4% prior
CPI, June (8:30): 0.3% expected, 0.2% prior
Core CPI, June (8:30): 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
Capacity Utilization, June (9:15): 75.0% expected, 74.9% prior
Industrial Productio, June (9:15): 0.2% expected, -0.4% prior
Business Inventories, May (10:00): 0.2% expected, 0.1% prior
Mich Sentiment, July (10:00): 93 expected, 94.3 prior
End part 1 of 3
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