Sunday, July 17, 2016

The Daily, Part 1 of 3, 7-16-16

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7/16/2016 Investment House Daily
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Targets hit: None issued
Entry alerts: None issued
Trailing stops: None issued
Stop alerts: GS

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- Very quiet expiration session but things get interesting afterhours with a
Turkey coup attempt.
- New high for DJ30 Friday, other indices bumping resistance, a bit tired.
- Mixed economic data: retail sales beat but in the big picture are still
just not good.
- CPI not too hot; not too cold.
- Can central banks keep the markets afloat with yet another major
geopolitical event and the specter of more?

After a solid move higher continued this past week, it looked as if the
stock indices would head to the weekend quietly, sitting on the nice gains
that pushed SP500 and DJ30 to new all-time highs and pushed the other
indices to next resistance. Not new highs for the 'other' indices, but they
broke through resistance and continued higher to the next level. The
central bank throw in for the world stock markets as well as the surprising
upgrade in global economic data worked well as the indices posted very solid
moves higher. Solid action to slip into the weekend holding the gains even
after another terror attack in France resulted in dozens upon dozens of
deaths earlier in the week.

SP500 -2.01, -0.09%
NASDAQ -4.47, -0.09%
DJ30 10.14, 0.05%
SP400 -0.03%
RUTX 0.26%
SOX -0.08%

VOLUME: NYSE +4%, NASDAQ -3.7%. Not a lot of fireworks for expiration, and
indeed the entire week showed lower volume. Very calm for an expiration
week and a big market recovery after a big market selloff.

A/D: NYSE 1.2:1, NASDAQ 1.1:1

Impressive strength, and given the response to the various problems arising,
we figured there was nothing that would really impact the market advance.

Then right after the close reports of a coup in Turkey. Okay, a partial
coup. The military, supporting more secular Islam, took over some broadcast
stations and an airport. The President says the coup will fail. It did.
Almost immediately after it failed the Turkey president said it was the work
of the US. Hmm. Seems he might be protesting too much, trying to shift
scrutiny from the truth. It is now believed by many to be an orchestrated
coup so the power-hungry president can use it to strip more freedoms and at
the same time have 'proof' of the need to round up more of those who
disagree with his hunger for more power.

Immediately on the news US futures fell, bonds rallied, gold surged, oil
jumped. Okay, maybe the central bank-aided moves are not bulletproof.
After word a few hours later that the coup appeared to be failing, futures
started to climb back.

It looked as if markets might get a catalyst to play to a test of the nice
break higher that pushed through resistance for all of the indices though
not all managed new highs. A strong move with not much rest could use the
overseas turmoil to test the big move higher.

Of course central banks will have to be vigilant. They had to promise
stimulus on Brexit. Japan promised itself stimulus because of Brexit, as
tangential as that may be to Japan. China continued devaluing the yuan.
The US said it was ready to act though officially it did not change its
stance one way or the other.

With the central banks at the ready, world turmoil might cause near term
upset, but then, if it subsides, the central banks can bring the world
markets back along with the governments that put out the economic data the
markets await with Pavlovian anticipation.

What do I mean? The sudden spike in economic data just after several
jarring events starting with the Brexit vote. China GDP surprises with a
6.7% gain, topping expectations. US retail sales June jump 0.6% versus 0.2%
expected. Industrial Production also surprises at 0.6% from -0.3% and 0.3%
expected. At the same time this week saw business inventories jump as sales
fell, regional manufacturing reports are sliding back to stall speed (New
York to 0.55 from 6.01), and the goods sold and shipped around the US are
down 15 consecutive months to a 6 year low (Cass Freight Index).

It is a case of what I have talked about frequently: the headline data looks
good enough, albeit the 2.6% year/year retail sales is just above recession
levels, but the underlying data does not show the same thing. It is easy to
report the data in such a way that looks good while the data below does not
support the same conclusion.

Thus you have the central banks ready to prop up markets and the data
reporters ready to do the same with 'friendly' headlines.

At some point the central banks will run out of oil in their magic stock
market lamps, but for now they have not as evidenced by the post-Brexit
buying that sent stocks higher despite 17 weeks of outflows from equity
mutual funds.

On that note, this past week did mark the first week in 18 that funds moved
back into the market versus leaving. Just in time for the more potentially
market roiling news.

Will the Fed continue holding off on hikes?

Another point I was going to cover tonight was just how long the Fed could
hold off hiking rates given the improvement in the economic indicators they
watch with the stock markets surging upside post-Brexit.

Brexit, Nice, and now Turcoup and who knows what else coming. Perhaps China
takes some aggressive action in the South China Sea now that the UN tribunal
says China doesn't own it? After all, Virginia City is not the capital of
Virginia, not even in the same state; now THAT is precedent for the

With the world burning in one way or another, the Fed has all the cover it
needs to keep on not keeping on with the rate hikes. The rest of the
world's central banks want just that, the IMF is begging the Fed not to
hike, and I am sure others want the same thing. So, I guess the US will
head toward negative interest rates and US citizens will start buying a lot
of vaults and safes just as they are in Europe and Japan where they prefer
to keep the money under the mattress so to speak versus pay to keep it in a
bank that, when push comes to shove and it all goes in the toilet again,
will just take the money out of your account in a 'patriotic donation' to
the government.


Retail Sales, June: 0.6% vs 0.2% exp vs 0.2% May (from 0.5%) Of course, it
is easy to have big jumps when you revise the prior month sharply lower.

Overall year/year: 2.7%

Ex-auto & gas: 0.7% vs 0.4% vs 0.4%

Control group: 0.5%

This looks better and is better. It will be heralded as a good sign. Given
this economy, any improvement is good. BUT (you knew it was coming), at
2.7%, this is JUST over recessionary levels. Sales cannot break higher and
hold a trend higher.

Interestingly, food and drink establishments slowed their sales yet this is
the largest jobs creating area in this economy.

CPI, June: 0.2% vs 0.3% exp vs 0.2% prior
Core: 0.2% as expected vs 0.2% prior. Year/year: 2.3% vs 2.2% prior.
Matches February and that is the highest since 9/2008.

Empire State Manufacturing, July: 0.55 vs 5.0 exp vs 6.01 June. At least
it was not negative . . . Not a great showing for the start of Q3.

China: GDP 6.7%, beating expectations. This appears to have halted the
slide of GDP BUT many are questioning what it cost to get this number. In
other words, the debt escalation. Rabbobank already estimated Chinese debt
at 3x the size of its economy. With private investment at 0% for the quarter
where did it come from? Government money pushed into state-owned companies,
of course the most inefficient place to put the money.



Virtually no change in the indices though DJ30 forged to another new high
with a powerful 0.05% move. Better get a bucket of ice water ready to cool
it off with moves like that. Of course it did put in some impressive
sessions on this move; Friday was just a pause form the look of it. For the
other indices as well.

DJ30: Doji though a new closing high, culminating a 7 of 8 session surge to
a new high. Strong move, new high, a test would be logical and if futures
continue descending as they are tonight, moving in a second leg lower after
the initial drop, looks as if the Dow will give it a shot at a test.

SP500: The other index at new highs, and the first to reach a new high, is
SP500. A doji here as well to end the week after an impressive three week
surge off the Brexit low. Broke through to a new high, now the 10 day EMA
is coincident with the old high, kind of a perfect testing point. But for
the Turkey news I would say it may not even try that level. Now it might.

NASDAQ: Rallied to a recovery high to Tuesday then started to struggle.
Managed to move higher to close the week but each session closed off the gap
higher point. Running low on momentum for now and even without Turcoupkey
NASDAQ likely would test.

SP400: Very similar to NASDAQ in the action on the week: surging early then
starting Wednesday a bit of a struggle. Nothing major, just a great move
that is a bit tired as it bumped into the prior all-time high. A test of
the June high/10 day EMA rising up below it (1525) is logical even in a
market that is hardly logical given all the monetary stimulus.

RUTX: Surged through Tuesday, worked laterally Wednesday to Friday in a
tight range. RUTX moved up to the bottom of the summer 2015 range and has
stalled for now. It is holding its gains, working in a nice lateral test,
not looking heavy.

SOX: Rally through Thursday, a modest loss Friday, holding in a tight
range. Closing at 723.65, SOX is still well below the 2015 interim highs
(730, 735) and the June post-2000 high (751). Nice break through the June
resistance as SOX works on recovering those prior highs. With the Fed and
central banks in the game and likely staying in the game thanks to events
such as Nice and Turcoupkey, after a test SOX can easily continue toward
those highs.


Many groups took a day off, but not all, e.g. metals. The market has more
leadership as of course groups started to turn up as the move continued and
spread out. An upside move has to have leadership, and typically broad
leadership, to be successful. Of course there are always the FANG-style
rallies where just a few large caps control market direction, but now that
is not the case.

Metals: Solid moves pretty much across the board. SID rallied 4% on
stronger volume. AKS and SCHN were up but their moves were tamer. CENX
cooled its ingots with a pair of doji after a big move higher earlier. FCX
added over 1% to a big early week move. Precious metal stocks were flat
Friday but enjoyed a decent enough week though not the same as the prior

Big Names: A mixed week for sure and a mixed session each day of the week.
FB closed the week on the 50 day SMA with a lateral move testing the prior
week upside. AMZN tested on the week, fading in an easy test of its new
high. AAPL jumped Thursday through the 50 day EMA, flat Friday; maybe
starting something. GOOG cleared the 200 day SMA but couldn't do anything
with it Wednesday to Friday but it did hold the move. SBUX bounced off the
50 day EMA on the week.

Rails: Great week, took some time off Friday. NSC surged into Thursday,
faded just modestly Friday and on very low trade. UNP surged as well, doji
Thursday, sold back some Friday but on light trade. Strong break higher.
CSX reported great results and blasted higher through Thursday. A bit of a
sharp drop Friday but not bad.

Financial: Great week with GS leading the surge upside and moving close to
the 200 day SMA and the April high. MS made it to the 200 day SMA Friday on
the open. JPM reported a beat and gapped Thursday, flat Friday, holding
below the early June peak. Other bank results were not so great. WFC
gapped lower and sold 2.5% Friday. BAC and C were up nicely on the week and
held steady Friday.

Software: Sports some solid patterns still. ROVI put in four lateral
sessions in a tight range, prepping the next upside move. CYBR continued
higher through Friday. BLKB punched out a higher high, faded Friday. RHT
recovered to the 50 day MA's through Thursday but then turned lower Friday;
kind of weak looking with a downside ABCD pattern. CRM in a nice easy
lateral test of the 10 day EMA.

Chips: Not bad, good week. AVGO gapped higher Monday, continued upside in
the channel into Friday. LRCX continued its run this week though ran into
some resistance. AMKR rallied early week, coasted into Friday. NVDA put in
a new high on the week, testing Friday.

Biotechs/Drugs: Some good moves on the week but a lot of struggles. Friday
a bit better. BIIB put in a strong upside move. EXAS faded to end the week
but surged Wednesday and let us take some nice gain. GILD has an
interesting double bottom set up. BLUE had a tougher week but it also is
set up very nicely in a 1-2-3 fade to near support. EYES looks in great
shape to move higher. OPHT shot higher Friday.

Oil: Back and forth week. CWEI broke through the 200 day SMA, let us take
some gain, faded to end the week but still very solid. CVX put in a higher
high on the week. Same with XOM and BP. APC as well but faded to the 20
day EMA Friday. Lots of stocks just holding on, biding time: PTEN, SPN,
COG, HAL. Had good runs, a bit winded, trying to consolidate as oil tries
to keep from selling farther after selling a bit more after the break below
the 50 day MA's, then bouncing back to test them as of Friday.


Stats: -4.47 points (-0.09%) to close at 5029.59
Volume: 1.572B (-3.66%)

Up Volume: 767.82M (-272.18M)
Down Volume: 803.18M (+257.93M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.12 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.24 to 1

New Highs: 109 (-70)
New Lows: 25 (-1)

Stats: -2.01 points (-0.09%) to close at 2161.74
NYSE Volume: 874.2M (+4.31%)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.19 to 1
Previous Session: Advancers led 1.31 to 1

New Highs: 125 (-70)
New Lows: 8 (+4)

Stats: +10.14 points (+0.05%) to close at 18516.55


VIX: 12.67; -0.15
VXN: 14.29; -0.37
VXO: 11.68; -0.57

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.85; +0.23

5 of 5 below 1.0, 14 of last 23 over 1.0.
18 of the last 35 below 1.0. 34 of 55 over 1.0.

Bulls and Bears: Massive drop in bulls, but of course that was immediately
countered by the recovery, so this reading is all in flux right now.

Bulls: 52.5 versus 47.1. Highest level since early 2015, by a long shot.
Around 60 is where an upside move has topped over the past 18 years.

Bears: 24.7 versus 24.5. Somewhat opposite of the bulls, bears actually
became more numerous with the rally.

Theory: When everyone is bullish and has put all their capital to work,
where does the ammunition to drive the market come from? There is always
new money to start a new year. After that is used will more money be
coming? That is the question.

Bulls: 52.5% versus 47.1%
47.1% versus 41.6% versus 47.5% versus 45.9% versus 47.3% versus 45.4%
versus 35.4% versus 40.2 versus 39.2 versus 40.2% versus 44.3% versus 47.4%
versus 41.2% versus 45.4% versus 43.3% versus 47.4% versus 44.4% versus
39.4% versus 36.4% versus 34.7% versus 26.5% versus 24.7% 34.0% versus 29.2%
versus 26.8% versus 28.6% versus 34.7% versus 36.7% versus 37.8% versus
44.9% versus 41.2% versus 45.4%

Bears: 24.7%
24.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.2% versus 23.5% versus 23.8% versus 23.7%
versus 24.0% versus 21.7% versus 21.6% versus 21.7 versus 20.6% versus 21.7%
versus 27.8% versus 27.8% versus 28.9% versus 27.8% versus 30.3% versus
35.4% versus 34.3% versus 35.7% versus 39.8% versus 39.2% versus 38.1%
versus 35.4% versus 36.1% versus 35.7% versus 31.6% versus 29.6%


Bonds (10 year): 1.58% versus 1.53%. Broke below the 20 day EMA for the
first time on this pullback, now reaching the upper gap point from late
June. After hours on the Turkey coup attempt bonds rallied off the Friday
selling but not a game changer at this point. Just for reference, the prior
Friday bonds closed at 1.36%.

Historical: 1.53% versus 1.47% versus 1.51% versus 1.434% versus 1.36%
versus 1.39% versus 1.373% versus 1.367% versus 1.44% versus 1.475% versus
1.51% versus 1.468% versus 1.46% versus 1.57% versus 1.74% versus 1.68%
versus 1.70% versus 1.67% versus 1.61% versus 1.57% versus 1.58% versus
1.62% versus 1.61% versus 1.64% versus 1.68% versus 1.70% versus 1.72%
versus 1.73% versus 1.70% versus 1.80% versus 1.84% versus 1.85%

EUR/USD: 1.1035 versus 1.1117. Held up during the session but then the euro
broke back below the 200 day SMA on the Turkey news.

Historical: 1.1117 versus 1.1099 versus 11061 versus 1.10588 versus 1.10502
versus 1.10634 versus 1.10891 versus 1.1056 versus 1.11396 versus 1.1106
versus 1.11256 versus 1.10736 versus 1.10226 versus 1.1101 versus 1.14070
versus 1.13324 versus 1.1251 versus 1.13131 versus 1.13749 versus 1.12778
versus 1.12554 versus 1.12731 versus 1.2104 versus 1.1297 versus 1.12526
versus 1.13149 versus 1.1412 versus 1.13570

USD/JPY: 104.85 versus 105.314. Dollar dropped against yen after making it
just through the 50 day MA's Thursday.

Historical: 105.31 versus 104.74 versus 102.686 versus 100.59 versus
100.768 versus 101.15 versus 100.89 versus 102.497 versus 103.128 versus
102.912 versus 102.60 versus 101.93 versus 102.32 versus 106.73 versus
104.87 versus 104.788 versus 103.98 versus 104.58 versus 104.12 versus
104.68 versus 105.62 versus 106.085 versus 106.019 versus 106.933 versus
106.966 versus 106.66 versus 107.347 versus 107.72 versus 106.55 versus
106.66 versus 108.86 versus 109.99 versus 111.285

Oil: 46.65, +1.15. Gapped upside to the 50 day EMA, the same level it
rallied to on Tuesday but immediately gave up. Still in a 6 week fade off
the early June high. Has definitely turned to backfilling the move after
doubling off the February panic low. Friday we learned there were more rigs
turning in the US (+6 to 357). That is the most since 12/2011.

Gold: 1327.40, -4.80. Closed lower but was up on the Turkey news. On the
week, a nice pullback to the 20 day EMA, testing the break to a higher high.
Very normal test.


After the initial drop on Turkcoup futures were recovering. We will see how
Asian markets respond but I would not be surprised that, regardless of the
initial reaction, the markets find their support even if they test first.
The central banks are again all in and there is enough world turmoil and the
threat of more to keep the Fed on hold.

Leadership remains good enough for now and there are new highs on DJ30 and
SP500. Of course that means watching if the other indices can follow along
with SP400 in best position to post the next new high though it might want
to test first. It also means watching DJ20, the transports, and whether
they follow with their own new high and confirm the DJ30 new high or if they
roll over with a lower high in an uncomfortable look similar to 2006/2007.
DJ20 is over 1250 points from a new high and indeed has not passed the twin
tops from Mary and April. If it makes a lower high here, not good news
longer term.

For now we have some new upside plays to consider along with a downside
play. Again, leadership is good enough and with the central banks backing
the move, that is really all it needs until the point is reached the central
banks have no more marginal efficacy. Not at that point yet. So, we will
see how stocks react when the markets start opening, and perhaps get the
chance to use a bit of a respite as an entry point.

Have a great weekend!


NASDAQ: Closed at 5029.59

5042 is the March 2015 high
5100 from the April peak and early May peak
5162 is the early November peak, 5176 is the December intraday peak

5008.57 is the early March 2015 post-bear market high
5007 is the 12/31 upper gap point from that big gap lower
4999 is the October upper gap point
4980 is the June 2016 peak
4969 is the April 2016 recovery high
4960 is the September 2015 intraday high, an important reversal point for
4920 is the lower gap point from mid-October 2015, the January 2016 lower
gap point
4916 is the mid-November 2015 low
4899 - 4902 from the September 2015 peak, July 2015 low
4894 is the September 2015 closing high
The 50 day EMA at 4867
4836 is the March 2016 peak
The 200 day SMA at 4828
4815 is the December 2014 peak
4811 is the November 2014 peak (intraday)
4774 is the January 2-15 high
4751 is the January 2015 lower high
4684 is the May 2016 test low
4637 is the February intraday high
4620 is the February 1 closing high
4615 from September 2014 highs, October 2014 upper gap point, late August
2015 low.
4574 is the June 2015 low
4517-4506 from the September 2015 and August 2015 closing lows
4485 are the twin July 2014 peaks
4471 is the January 2016 closing low
4425 is the late February intraday low
4363 is the February upper gap point
4352 is the March 2014 peak
4313 is the January 2016 intraday low
4292 is the August 2015 low
4212 is the February intraday low

S&P 500: Closed at 2161.74


2135 is the May 2015 all-time high
2130 is the June 2015 peak
2126 was the April 2015 prior all-time high
2120 is the June 2016 peak
2119 is the February 2015 intraday high
2116 is the November 2015 high
2111 is the April 2016 recovery high
2104 is the December 2015 high
2094 is the December 2014 high
The 50 day EMA at 2091
2079 is the intraday all-time high from November 2014
2062 is the January 2015 lower high
2046 is the July 2015 closing low
2040 is the March 2015 closing low
The 200 day SMA at 2032
2026 is the May 2016 low
2023 is the November 2015 low
2020 is the September 2015 intraday high
2011 is the September prior all-time high
1995 is the September 2015 recovery peak
1991 is the July 2014 high
1972 is the December 2014 low
1947 is the February 2016 intraday high, the late February peak
1940 is the January 2016 recovery bounce peak closing high
1913 is the early September 2015 closing low testing the bounce from the
August selling
1905 is the August 2014 low
1902 from early May was the intraday all-time high.
1897 is the prior all-time high hit in April 2014
1891 is last week's intraday low prior to the miraculous reversal.
1872 is the September 2015 test low of the August low
1867 is the August 2015 low

Dow: Closed at 18,516.55


18,351 is the all-time high from May 2015
18,288 from March 2015
18,168 is the April 2016 recovery high
18,100 to 18,181: interim peaks in the December 2014 to July 2015 range
18,016 is the June 2016 peak
17,978 is the November 2015 peak
The 50 day EMA at 17,852
17,600 is the rough bottom of the April to June range.
17,351 is the September 2014 all-time high.
The 200 day SMA at 17,349
17,265 is a December 2015 closing low
17,245 is the November 2015 closing low
17,152 is the mid-July 2014 post bear market high
17,068 is the early July 2014 peak
17067 is the December 2014 low
17,063 is the June 2016 low
16,970 is the June 2014 former all-time high
16,946 is the June 2014 peak
16,933 is the September 2015 recovery intraday peak
16,740 is the mid-September peak and potential apex for a right shoulder to
a head and shoulders pattern
16,736 is a prior all-time high from May 2014
16,670 is the December 2014 peak and the recent August 2015 relief bounce
16,665 is the late August 2015 closing high
16,632 is the April 2014 peak
16,621 is the late February 2016 peak
16,589 is the December 2013 former all-time high
16,526 is the early January resistance
16,511 is the January 2016 intraday high
16,506 is the March 2014 peak
16,466 is the January 2016 recovery closing peak.
16,368 is the August 2014 low


July 15 - Friday
Empire Manufacturing, July (8:30): 0.55 actual versus 5.0 expected, 6.0
Retail Sales, June (8:30): 0.6% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior
(revised from 0.5%)
Retail Sales ex-auto, June (8:30): 0.7% actual versus 0.4% expected, 0.4%
prior (no revisions)
CPI, June (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.2% prior (no
Core CPI, June (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.2% prior (no
Capacity Utilization, June (9:15): 75.4% actual versus 75.0% expected, 74.9%
prior (no revisions)
Industrial Production, June (9:15): 0.6% actual versus 0.2% expected, -0.3%
prior (revised from -0.4%)
Business Inventories, May (10:00): 0.2% actual versus 0.2% expected, 0.1%
prior (no revisions)
Michigan Sentiment, July (10:00): 89.5 actual versus 93 expected, 93.5 prior

July 18 - Monday
NAHB Housing Market , July (10:00): 61.0 expected, 60 prior
Net Long-Term TIC Flow, May (16:00): -$79.6B prior

July 19 - Tuesday
Building Permits, June (8:30): 1150K expected, 1138K prior
Housing Starts, June (8:30): 1165K expected, 1164K prior
Building Permits, June (8:30): 1150K expected, 1138K prior

July 20 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 07/16 (7:00): 7.2% prior
Crude Inventories, 07/16 (10:30): -2.546M prior

July 21 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 07/16 (8:30): 265K expected, 254K prior
Continuing Claims, 07/09 (8:30): 2149K prior
Philadelphia Fed, July (8:30): 5.0 expected, 4.7 prior
FHFA Housing Price I, May (9:00): 0.2% prior
Existing Home Sales, June (10:00): 5.50M expected, 5.53M prior
Leading Indicators, June (10:00): 0.3% expected, -0.2% prior
Natural Gas Inventor, 07/16 (10:30): 64 bcf prior

End part 1 of 3
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