Sunday, April 01, 2012

Market Ended First Quarter Strong


- Nondescript end to a strong first quarter for the market.
- Window dressing never showed up. Maybe the funds have what they want already.
- Spending rises but incomes again are negative when inflation and taxes are considered. Economists have a special phrase for this: burning the candle at both ends.
- Chicago PMI misses but still over 60. The region is worried about a cost 'tipping point,' however.
- Gasoline? We don't need no stinking gasoline? Michigan Sentiment just fine, easily beating expectations.
- Jeff Immelt to remain 'neutral' in the 2012 election campaign. A little late for that.
- April tends to be a good month. Here's to looking for new money and not many earnings warnings.

If that was window dressing the market needs a new designer.

If this was a window dressing Friday to end Q1, the market likely needs a new interior designer. It was a very nondescript session with the indices trading around the flatline all day long. Maybe that was not a bad thing as the market closed out on the best Q1 since 1998. The market rose even as the economic data weakened somewhat in the start of yet another new year. We saw that in 2010, 2011, and now we see weakening data in 2012. The market as it was in 2011, however, is not paying any heed to it. At least not yet.

This is a testament to the power of printing money. The world central banks have printed trillions upon trillions of dollars (Not all dollars, of course, because the European nations would not print dollars. But you get the point). The world is awash in liquidity. It is enough to pay for many, many major items from the past as I noted in one of the early alerts today. It could pay for World War II, Desert Storm, the Space Race, and many other things in the aggregate. We are not talking about just matching the cost of World War II; we are talking about aggregating many expensive events over the history of man.

When you print money, many things can happen. In 1999 the NASDAQ rallied 70% in just part of the year because of liquidity pumped into the system by the Federal Reserve. As the commercial says, that is the power of cheese (one of my favorite series of commercials). The power of liquidity shows itself again and again in financial markets. However, it just does not have the strength to push for lasting economic growth in the world economies. That is the rub we have moving into Q2 of 2012. Will the liquidity finally lead to a solid catch in the economy? In other words, can the economy do what Ben Bernanke says it cannot right now; that is, survive without the Fed's liquidity? That is a big question for Q2. It was not able to do it in Q2 of 2011. We will see if it is different this time.

Looking at the charts, the market still looks like it has some upside power to it. Since Mr. Bernanke has made it clear that the liquidity stays in place, then the market has room to run. The velocity of money is still virtually zero in the United States, so there is not much turnover or fear from him that there will be inflation. That is a double-edged sword because zero velocity means that there is not much activity either the activity needed generate that multiplier effect on money.

We start of Q2 looking good. If we back off and look at Q2 in April of 2011, it started decently and faded mid-month as earnings were getting seriously underway. But then it sprinted to a new rally and post bear market high by the close of that month. It knew that QE2 was going to end in June, but it still managed a rally. Operation Twist will end in June; will the market pull the same action? With a dip it still managed a good run. Or is it out of gas? As the chart shows from last April, it is fully capable of running. Why would the market not be fully capable of running here when Operation Twist is coming to an end when we know that Operation Twist is not as potent as QE2?

The intuitive outlook for the coming quarter seems to be good at least through April. There is the old adage, "Sell in May and go away." We will see how that plays out. If the liquidity is there, the market will probably find a way to move higher. When the economy is not really doing anything and the Fed adds a lot of money, that inflates asset prices. It does not go into the economy; it just goes into the financial markets. That is what we have seen ever since March of 2009. It has been a series of strong runs based on liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve. If the Fed keep the money flowing, the market overall will likely continue to move. The thing that could stop it is if we have some serious economic issues this summer. ECRI still has its recession call. The market does not seem to be showing it. Then again, the market was strong into April of last year and even into May and June before it finally rolled over. Again, that is the power of liquidity.

It looked as if the market was going to start out with some really vigor. Futures were up nicely heading into the morning bell, but it could not last. They sold off in the morning. They turned negative but managed an afternoon rally. It was a bounce. There was a bit of buying, but it certainly was not a nice surge to the upside.

SP500, +0.37%; NASDAQ, -0.12%; Dow, +0.5%; SP600, -0.26%; SOX, +0.41%.

Very mixed with some growth moving up. Other growth was moving down. Some of the old standby stocks that got pretty much bludgeoned over the week manufacturing, energy managed a modest recovery. That helped boost the Dow and the SP500.

A pretty quiet day for the indices overall and not much window dressing. Perhaps that means the funds already have the stocks that they wanted to put in their quarterly reports. Maybe that means we will get some buying with the new Q2 coming next week. That would be an interesting turn. It would be logical as well because you often get new money coming into the market to start a new quarter, and it can get some nice upside. With the market set in pretty good position to move higher, we could definitely see a bounce next week.


Dollar. 1.3343 versus 1.3285 euro. The dollar traded a bit lower. A little ABCD pattern, and now an ABCDD pattern, so to speak, with a double bottom. Maybe it will try to make a break to the upside. If the economy is recovering, there should be a stronger dollar. If Europe goes off the deep end, there should be a stronger dollar. There is a little tension here. If Europe recovers, the dollar gets a bit weaker. But if the U.S. recovers quickly, the dollar should be stronger. You will have that back and forth tension. Overall the dollar is maintaining an uptrend. It is trying to put in a higher low, and it has a short term ABCDD pattern that could send it to the upside.

Bonds. 2.21% versus 2.15% 10 year U.S. Treasury. Bonds had a hard time on Friday. A week of bond auctions saw varied acceptance of the bond issues. This is a pretty grotesque turn lower on Friday. It looks like bonds have been repulsed. Bonds should sell some if the economy is stronger. It just makes sense. And it if Europe will be stronger, why not? Bonds lost buyers when money was attracted to Europe because the EU said they were raising their bailout fund to over $1T U.S. dollars. That would be 700B euros from 500B euros. With that comfort level on the continent, bonds took a hammering. Now they broke down from their triangle. As you can see, they tested and they are breaking lower now. It looks as if perhaps the bond rally is over. The question is will money no longer chase the bond funds? PIMCO's bond ETF that matches its major fund that a lot of people do not have the scratch to buy into had a successful open on the stock market.

Gold. 1,669.10, +14.20. Gold managed a gain. It was definitely a back-and-forth week for gold as it tests the breakout from that channel. It has been moving laterally more or less the past three weeks. It is unable to make any headway but holding its ground when everyone says it will sell off. It bounced back to the upside. It is trying to put in a higher low. It is not a pretty pattern, but it is holding where it needs to. Gold is trying to figure out just what the market wants to do. As it works on that conundrum, it works laterally in its pattern.

Oil. 103.04, +0.26. Oil closed basically flat. Oil broke below its consolidation of the November-February trading range and breakout. It tapped the 50 day EMA on the Friday high and faded. It looks like it may have broken near term and wants to test a bit lower. There are rumors about possibly tapping into the Strategic Petroleum Reserves in Europe as well as in the U.S. Saudi Arabia is also saying that it has more oil than it knows what to do with and that it will start pumping it. It sees no rational reason why oil is at the price it is. It will crank up production and try to drive the price down. Obviously oil will take a bit of a hit when that happens.

If you remember, back in the early 1980's Saudi Arabia decided it was going to punish some of the other OPEC members who were cheating on their quotas and not doing what Saudi Arabia wanted them to. It pumped more and more oil, and it drove price down to $9 a barrel. That virtually destroyed what little was left of the U.S. domestic oil industry at the time. And it brought a bunch of OPEC countries into line because they had no money anymore to spend on the grand projects hatched out during the 1970's when oil prices spiked. Maybe Saudi Arabia will try to do that again. Sure sounds like they want to do that.

It is just in the nick of time for us as the EPA has effectively now prohibited any new coal plants from being opened in the United States. President Obama (when he was Senator Obama) was talking about a Cap and Trade program that would make it virtually impossible to start a coal plant. He said you could do it, but you would go bankrupt because you would have to pay so much to set off your carbon. He could not get that through Congress, so now King George Obama has just decided that he would appoint his knight at the EPA to do it. That is exactly what happened. They could not get it through Congress, so they just write an executive order in a massive usurpation of power. Our forefathers went to war over this kind of nonsense, but it seems like this country has no stomach for sticking up for the things that have made them great. I know I will get some heat for that, but it is absurd what we are willing to take.

In any event, oil may be going down a bit. Maybe. Places like Ohio where 90% of the power comes from coal-fired plants will have a problem. It seems like a very strange thing to me. The President is so married to his agenda on this. Ohio is a must-win state for the President, yet he is going to drive the price of energy in Ohio through the roof. This primarily affects new coal plants, but there will be no real reason to mine a lot of coal anymore. If there will not be any new coal plants, you will have problems. If you look at the stocks of companies like BTU, you see how it is getting slaughtered, breaking down out of a triangle, and now it is in a downtrend. You can see the handwriting on the wall. It seems very strange to put the coal companies in too great of harm before the election. Maybe that is what they are planning on, but it seems odd to me that you would do this to a key swing state. But I am not a politician. I just look at things, see what makes sense and what does not, and try to make money off of it.


The internals were rather nondescript on Friday.

Volume. NASDAQ 1.7B; NYSE +2%, 746M.

Breadth. NASDAQ -1.1:1; NYSE +1.4:1. Breadth was nothing. Mixed market and mixed internals. Nothing too extreme one way or the other. It was a week that showed a bit more volume. Maybe to the upside and maybe to the downside. It is hard to tell necessarily. Stocks were bouncing back on some higher volume on one session, while on another session they sold on higher volume and then rebounded on lower trade. It was mixed without a doubt. When you are at highs for a rally, you have to watch when volume gets a little waffley on you. Then you might start stealing some of the gold out from the bank and end up leaving yourself with nothing except running on fumes and paper money at the top. That may be a poor analogy, but hopefully you get the point. If you have high volume at the top, you are slowly emptying the bank of all the goods, and you have a collapse.

The market is still moving higher. Volume is hard to read, as noted. You basically have to go with what the patterns and the leaders are showing you. They are still moving upside, even though some leaders are struggling, of course.

SP500. Overall the market is still showing good action and leaders are still showing good action. SP500 is holding above the 20 day EMA and, indeed, holds above the 10 day EMA as it tests the breakout from weeks back above the prior bear market high from the summer of 2011. It is holding up just fine.

DJ30. The Dow is moving back up to test its recent peaks. Making a higher low at the 20 day EMA. This is nothing major. These are not power moves, but just lateral consolidations, making higher lows, and trying to set up for yet another break to the upside. Again, not necessarily powerful, but it is not showing that it is rolling over and changing its character.

DJ20. The Dow transports closed basically flat at the 20 day EMA. As with the DJ30, trying to set up a little pennant or triangle to break to the upside.

NASDAQ. NASDAQ pulled back on the session. It closed at the 10 day EMA. Maybe it looks a little top heavy right now, but it continues its trend. As with SP500, no character change. It is still trending to the upside. A lot of people are buying put insurance because they think the market is going to fall. If enough think it will fall, maybe end up with a self-fulfilling prophesy. There are a lot of people out there that are very bullish as well. Maybe that is what they are playing into.

April will be an interesting month no matter what. We have earnings, we have the action from last year with the end of QE3, and we know that Twist will be ending soon. It will be an interesting month. It just has not changed its character yet, so we have got to sick with what the market is doing right now.

SP600. SP600 is also holding onto its breakout above the summer 2011 highs, riding right along the 10 and 20 day EMA. It had just a little pullback to test that Monday move, and it is still set up to make a break higher.

SOX. The SOX is trying, but it is struggling. It has still not made a break over its post bear market high hit in 2011, but it is holding the 10 and 20 day EMA as it continues to put in higher lows. Things may be slowing. The market may look tired, but it has looked tired before on this run. It continues to move. No character change yet, but it could be coming. We always keep our eye on the door. You have to know where the exit is. But until it shows us that, we have to stick with what is going on. We will also be smart and take care of positions along the way.


There are some broad categories in leadership that are still struggling.

Industrial Machinery. CAT still has a toppish pattern.

Energy. Energy struggled for the past three weeks as well. CVX is not looking great. Not necessarily rolling over, however. Energy has been knocked around, but it is not out for the count. It is struggling, no doubt.

Metals. Metals have had a tough time, but they are not completely broken down. FCX was able to bounce up Thursday and Friday, coming up to test the bottom of this lateral consolidation. We will see what happens. Down, yes, but not out. These are the stocks that are causing the issues with the market overall. They are not performing right now. While they are not breaking the market down necessarily, they are definitely taking the steam out of it, making it difficult for the market to hold its position, and, of course, to advance its position.

Financial. Financials have held up admirably. GS has a doji at the 20 day EMA. Looking solid. This is representative of the large financial institutions. It should be; they can make money, borrow it for nothing, and buy bonds to get a guaranteed return. They should all be looking good and making money.

Retail. Retail is still holding as well, but we do see some issues that are worrisome. RL is moving laterally. It is not necessarily breaking down. It just looks kind of top heavy. WFM broke lower on Thursday. It is trying to recover, but it is having a struggle, showing a doji on Friday. Retail is a huge area, and there are all different sorts of retail. PCLN is making a 10 day EMA test. It is very orderly. Definitely a market leader. We still have some great retail stocks in great shape. Some of them are just looking a little heavy. Retail has been a very important leader in this market.

Spending was up again in February, so the consumer still seems to want to spend for now. I do not know how long it can do it with the housing market still showing lower and lower prices and the income flat at best when adjusted for inflation. You cannot keep spending forever. For now, however, it is holding all the retailers to the upside.

Healthcare. Drugs tend to look fairly decent right now. They have a little bit of buying. A lot of the medical has some bids under them. They have caught fire this week during the Supreme Court argument when it looked like Obamacare might be overturned, particularly the healthcare plans such as HUM or AET. They had good surges on the week, particularly on Thursday. There is some movement, but that is hard to peg because it is related to the arguments and the Supreme Court case. That could all change in a couple of months.

There are still stocks in good shape, but we will have to stick to some real quality names in good position like AMZN. Nice buy area. BIDU looks like it is also in a nice buy area. Big names in good buy points are where we want to stick. Then if we see some of the non-household names in beautiful patterns, then we can go with them as well.


Personal Income, February (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.2% prior (revised from 0.3%)
Personal Spending, February (8:30): 0.8% actual versus 0.6% expected, 0.4% prior (revised from 0.2%)
PCE Prices - Core, February (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior

Spending rose the most in 7 months. A bit of pent up demand is evident in these numbers and somewhat corroborated by the Michigan Sentiment Survey Final for March. Gasoline prices are an issue, but not enough to overcome the desire to spend some.

Or is it? As with retail sales data, spending is based on dollars spent, not the number of goods and services bought. Thus is something, oh say spiking gasoline prices took a larger part of a consumer's take home pay, well that would be considered an increase in spending even if the consumer cut expenditures on other items in order to pay for the gasoline needed to get to work, the grocery store, and yes, to the gas station.

The question is how long can increased spending can last? Adjusted for inflation and taxes, incomes are negative three of the last four months. Consumers lost a lot in the financial meltdown and thus savings are tapped. Houses, the largest asset, are still losing value. Thus buying power comes from wages, and with real wages struggling to hold flat against inflation, at some point the money runs out. Oh yes, there is that stock market wealth effect brought about purposefully by Mr. Bernanke and company: make people feel wealthier and they act wealthier. At least, until as the Talking Heads sang in 'Once in a Lifetime: after the money's gone.

Chicago PMI, March (9:45): 62.2 actual versus 63.0 expected, 64.0 prior

The news out of Chicago looks good with another 60+ reading even if it was a miss and just off of February's 10-month high.

Or does it? New orders fell sharply to 63.3 from 69.2. Employment dropped to 56.3 from 64.2, the largest decline since 2-2009.

Some sub-indices did rise: Prices jumped to 70.1 from 65.1. Inventories jumped to 57.4 from 49.6, the biggest jump since 12/2010.

Down in key areas, up in areas you don't want up. At this stage of the game, given the economic data, rising inventories is not good. As reported Wednesday, inventories are surging. Durables inventories hit the highest levels since the records have been kept, rising 26 straight months. This recovery is built on inventory building, but as ECRI and other data show, sales are overall lower. Disconnect.

Key: Respondents note that the "tipping point for oil prices and impact on raw materials and Total Cost of Operations is fast approaching." Translated: prices are almost at the point of stalling the expansion.

Michigan Sentiment - Final, March (9:55): 76.2 actual versus 74.3 expected, 74.3 prior preliminary.

Highest showing since 2-11 as gasoline prices are not damping enthusiasm thus far in the great north. The irrepressible consumer coming out of a long recession. As noted above in the spending and incomes, you can spend . . . as long as the money holds out. As Sissy (Debra Winger) said in 'Urban Cowboy' "Wes said the $5,000 will get us deep into Mexico." Lovely thought.

Oh really? That is akin to saying a top intelligence officer defected, divulged all he knew to the enemy, aided the enemy's attempts to overthrow the defector's former country, and then wanted to settle down as a 'citizen of the world.'

Give me a break. This man was Obama's lapdog during the massive stimulus boondoggle that netted GE billions of dollars in true tax subsidies (not the investment tax credits the oil industry receives) right out of the taxpayer's pockets. Let me check, do the history books now say China was neutral in the Korean war?

Pucker up big boy . . .

Maybe, however, it is true. Charles Gasparino is reporting that Immelt is dissatisfied with Obama and even though GE received billions in true subsidies Immelt thinks Obama's use of class warfare and theories of big government economic salvation are appalling. As Gasparino says, that a CEO who benefitted from billions of dollars in subsidies worries about the President's overall economic agenda and long-term economic impact is an important commentary on the administration.

This is all very interesting, but the damage has been done and if Immelt's goal as the article reports was to moderate the president's left-leaning economic agenda, all he did was give the administration photo ops and the appearance that big business was behind is central government economy ideas.





VIX: 15.5; +0.02
VXN: 17.19; -0.08
VXO: 14.66; +0.01

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.97; -0.07

Bulls versus Bears

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market, then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market does not have the cash to drive it higher.

Bulls: 50.5% versus 48.4%. Well, turning right back up and gunning for the 51% peak hit a month back. Plenty of bullishness on the financial stations, even calls of Dow 17,000. Bullish sentiment is returning. Again, it is not excessively bullish. They are off the 55+ level even near the highs as investors get a bit pensive. Bigger picture that is good for the upside. That was the highest level since April and May of 2011, the peak of the post-bear market high. Now the indices are back at that level and so are the bulls. All the more reason to watch this action at the prior highs. 35% is the threshold measuring bullish versus bearish action. Six weeks the bulls were below bears. A powerful sentiment signal but now dissipating. Highs from April and December (60% readings spanning December through early May 2011). The 5 year high is 62.0. The crossover level at 29% bulls from July 2010 is long gone. 35% is the threshold level suggesting bullishness. To be seriously bearish it needs to get up to the 60% to 65% level.

Bears: 22.6% versus 23.6%. Down further from 26.6% three weeks back and having held at 25% to 26% for weeks. Still not excessive either way. Solidly lower after spending weeks at 30%ish. Not at a bearish level but they are growing more confident even as the market hits the prior highs and is not blasting on through. For more reference, bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October 2008. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment. Prior levels for comparison: Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). That was a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.


Stats: -3.79 points (-0.12%) to close at 3091.57
Volume: 1.774B (+2.48%)

Up Volume: 1.04B (+336.92M)
Down Volume: 766.77M (-273.23M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Decliners led 1.16 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.38 to 1

New Highs: 94 (+27)
New Lows: 16 (-10)


Stats: +5.19 points (+0.37%) to close at 1408.47
NYSE Volume: 746M (+1.91%)

Up Volume: 2.42B (+950M)
Down Volume: 1.21B (-1.07B)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.39 to 1
Previous Session: Decliners led 1.54 to 1

New Highs: 120 (+65)
New Lows: 11 (-22)


Stats: -3.79 points (-0.12%) to close at 3091.57
Volume DJ30: 171M shares Friday versus 136M shares Thursday. Some end of quarter volume.


April be tends to be a good month for the market. It has been up 43 times versus 19 or something like that. It is more than a 2:1 ratio. Although it is not the best month, it tends to be a good month. We have a lot hitting next week, culminating with the employment report on Friday. That will be important because we are seeing more and more people disappearing from the workforce. That could bring the unemployment rate down even more, even though there are not really more jobs. There are just fewer people working. Tax revenues are down as noted earlier in the week. Over the same period as last year, tax revenues are down. How can unemployment rates be dropping if tax revenues are down unless the jobs being created are crap? I hate to use that kind of tough language in this family-oriented video.

The SP500 is in shape to move. We have quality stocks such as AMZN in position to break higher once more. AMZN is hardly extended because it joined the rally late. It had to get its act back in gear, and it has done just that. There are other stocks in the same position. We will be looking at those as our ticket to ride in April.

No one knows for sure if it will be another positive month for April. But it is surely set up to start that way. We still have to deal with the jobs report on Friday. We still have to deal with earnings. We will start to see announcements, and I am still worried that earnings could be a catalyst to the downside. Expectations are that earnings are not as good this quarter as they were in the prior three years with easier comparisons.

We will see how it plays out. Certainly stocks are in position to move. It is just a matter of whether that new money hits and the bids return and send them higher. On Friday we were willing to see if that new money was going to push some stocks that were on the bubble to the upside. We will get that opportunity this week. We have some good stocks in position, and the indices are in position to move.

As my Little League coach of many years ago liked to say, "You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink." Heady stuff I suppose for a bunch of 11 year olds. We will see if the market will take a drink.

Have a great weekend!

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 3095.36

3227 is the April 2000 intraday low
3401 is the May 2000 closing low

3042 from 5/2000 low
The 20 day EMA at 3046
3026 from 10/2000 low
3000 is the February 2012 post-bear market high
The 50 day EMA at 2950
2910 is the recent March 2012 low
2900 is the March 2012 low
2888 is the May 2011 peak and PRIOR post-bear market high
2879 is the July 2011 peak
2862 is the 2007 peak
2841 is the February 2011 peak
2816 is the early April 2011 peak.
2754 is the October 2011 high
2706 to 2705 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 and consolidation low (bottom of the trading range) 2723 to 2705 is the range of support at the bottom of the January to May trading range
The 200 day SMA at 2699
2686 is the January 2011 closing low
2676 is the January 2010 low and the December 2011 peak
2645-2650ish from December 2010 consolidation
2643 is the September 2011 high
2612 is the late August 2011 peak
2603 is the March 2011 intraday low (post-Japan low)
2599 is the June 2011 low and NASDAQ
2593 is the November intraday high
2580 is the November 2010 closing high
2555 is the mid-August 2011 peak
2535 is the November island reversal gap point
2441 is the November 2011 low

S&P 500: Closed at 1403.28

1425 from May 2008 closing highs
1433 from August 2007 closing lows
1440 from November 2007 closing lows

The 20 day EMA at 1391
1378 is the February 2012 peak
1371 is the May 2011 peak, the post-bear market high
The 50 day EMA at 1360
1357 is the July 2011 peak
1344 is the February 2011 peak
1340 is the early April 2011 peak
1332 is the early March 2011 peak
1318.51 is the May 2011 low
1295 to 1294 is the April 2011 low and the February 2011 consolidation low (bottom of the trading range)
1293 is the October 2011 peak
1275 is the January 2010 low, early January 2011 peak
1267 is the December 2011 peak
The 200 day SMA at 1266
1258 is June 2011 intraday low
1255 is the late December 2010 consolidation range
1249 is the March 2011 low (post-Japan)
1235 is the mid-December 2010 consolidation low
1231 is the late August 2011 peak
1227 is the November 2010 peak
1220 is the April 2010 peak
1209 is the mid-August 2011 high
1196 is the November 2010 consolidation peak
1178-1180 is the October 2010/November 2010 consolidation low
1158 is the November 2011 low
1131 - 1127 from August 2010 base peak.
1119 is the early August closing low
1109 is the mid-September 2010 gap up point
1101 is the August 2011 low
1099 from the mid-July interim peak
1075 is the October 2011 intraday low

Dow: Closed at 13,145.82
13,668 from 12-2007 peak
13,692 from 6-2007 peak
14,022 from 7-07 peak

13,058 from the May 2008 peak on that bounce in the selling
13,056 is the February 2012 high
The 50 day EMA at 12,891
12,876 is the May high
12,754 is the July intraday peak
12,391 is the February 2011 peak
12,284 is the October 2011 peak
12,258 is the December 2011 peak
12,110 from the March 2007 closing low
12,094 is the April 2011 low
The 200 day SMA at 12,086
The June low at 11,897 (closing)
11,734 from 11-98 peak
11,717 is the late August 2011 peak
The August low at 11,702
11,555 is the March low
11,452 is the November 2010 peak
11,178 from November 2010
10,978 is the bottom of the November 2010 consolidation
10,750 from September 2010
10,720 is the August closing low
10,705-710 from January 2010 peak
10,694-700 from August 2010 peak

Economic Calendar

March 26 - Monday
Pending Home Sales, February (10:00): -0.5% actual versus 0.5% expected, 1.9% prior (revised from 2.0%)

March 27 - Tuesday
Case-Shiller 20-city, January (9:00): -3.8% actual versus -3.8% expected, -4.1% prior (revised from -4.0%)
Consumer Confidence, March (10:00): 70.2 actual versus 70.1 expected, 71.6 prior (revised from 70.8)

March 28 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 03/24 (7:00): -2.7% actual versus -7.4% prior
Durable Orders, February (8:30): 2.2% actual versus 2.8% expected, -3.6% prior (revised from -3.7%)
Durable Orders -ex Transportation, February (8:30): 1.6% actual versus 1.0% expected, -3.0% prior (revised from -3.2%)
Crude Inventories, 03/24 (10:30): 7.102M actual versus -1.160M prior

March 29 - Thursday
Initial Claims, 03/24 (8:30): 359K actual versus 350K expected, 364K prior (revised from 348K)
Continuing Claims, 03/17 (8:30): 3340K actual versus 3385K expected, 3381K prior (revised from 3352K)
GDP - Third Estimate, Q4 (8:30): 3.0% actual versus 3.0% expected, 3.0% prior
GDP Deflator - Third, Q4 (8:30): 0.9% actual versus 0.9% expected, 0.9% prior

March 30 - Friday
Personal Income, February (8:30): 0.2% actual versus 0.3% expected, 0.2% prior (revised from 0.3%)
Personal Spending, February (8:30): 0.8% actual versus 0.6% expected, 0.4% prior (revised from 0.2%)
PCE Prices - Core, February (8:30): 0.1% actual versus 0.1% expected, 0.2% prior
Chicago PMI, March (9:45): 62.2 actual versus 63.0 expected, 64.0 prior
Michigan Sentiment -, March (9:55): 76.2 actual versus 74.3 expected, 74.3 prior

April 2 - Monday
ISM Index, March (10:00): 53.0 expected, 52.4 prior
Construction Spending, February (10:00): 0.5% expected, -0.1% prior

April 3 - Tuesday
Factory Orders, February (10:00): 1.4% expected, -1.0% prior
FOMC Minutes, 3/13 (14:00)
Auto Sales, March (14:00): 5.5M prior
Truck Sales, March (14:00): 5.9M prior

April 4 - Wednesday
MBA Mortgage Index, 03/31 (7:00): -2.7% prior
ADP Employment Change, March (8:15): 213K expected, 216K prior
ISM Services, March (10:00): 56.9 expected, 57.3 prior
Crude Inventories, 03/31 (10:30): 7.102M prior

April 5 - Thursday
Challenger Job Cuts, March (7:30): 2.0% prior
Initial Claims, 03/31 (8:30): 355K expected, 359K prior
Continuing Claims, 03/24 (8:30): 3355K expected, 3340K prior

April 6 - Friday
Nonfarm Payrolls, March (8:30): 200K expected, 227K prior
Nonfarm Private Payrolls, March (8:30): 215K expected, 233K prior
Unemployment Rate, March (8:30): 8.3% expected, 8.3% prior
Hourly Earnings, March (8:30): 0.1% expected, 0.1% prior
Average Workweek, March (8:30): 34.5 expected, 34.5 prior
Consumer Credit, February (15:00): $14.0B expected, $17.8B prior

By: Jon Johnson, Editor
Copyright 2012 | All Rights Reserved

Jon Johnson is the Editor of The Daily at

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